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1=
Exchange coefficient that determines the rate at which heat is transferred from the mixed layer to
the atmosphere.
2=
Exchange coefficient that determines the rate at which heat is transferred from the mixed layer to
the deep layer.
The model can be manipulated and rearranged into a fashion that follows the basic protein synthesis
model. By hand we can then find the two response times, one for the mixed layer, the other for the
deep layer. Of course, it is much easier to do it using Matlab, as we have done in this project.
It is important to discuss the use of external factors that influence the model. These factors are what
cause the oceans to respond by temperature rise. To be more specific we can consider the layers
separately. Recall the mixed layer interacts with both the deep layer and the atmosphere. Here, the
external influences can include CO
2
from the atmosphere, pollution (sewage, wastes that have been
dumped into the ocean) and the weather (for example the sun), and many more factors because a great
deal goes on near the ocean surface. When we consider the deep layer, where it is cold and dark and
not a lot of life reaches the bottom, there are not a lot of factors that can cause temperature rise, but
that does not mean total absence of external factors. Geologic cracks and faults run along the ocean
floor, and deep sea vents can also be found here as well. Many deep sea vents release methane gas
which will definitely contribute to temperature rise. It is also important to remember that the deep layer
also interacts with the mixed layer, and it is under its influence [3]. Should the mixed layer experience
disturbances, the deep layer conditions will change.
The graphs we have constructed in Matlab for this project are very simple models. We have only the
mixed layer and deep layer. This are only two variables. Outside the classroom, box climate models get
much, much more complicated, but the principle is the same. There are often five, six, seven factors or
more to take into consideration when we do complex models, for example, Earths climate regimes.
Here we must consider control of atmospheric clouds and water vapor amounts, control of depth and
density of the oceans thermohaline circulations by tropical cyclones, and the dependence of carbon
dioxide content on water vapor and oceanic circulations [2]. These complex models can find patterns in
weather disturbances and alert government agencies to take necessary actions. There are many more
applications involved with the two boxed climate model.
Annotated Solution Discussion
>> %Set up A
>> lambda1=0.01
lambda1 =
0.0100
>> lambda2=0.02000
lambda2 =
0.0200
>> Cm=0.34625
Cm =
0.3463
>> Cd=0.769437
Cd =
0.7694
>> rho=Cd/Cm
rho =
2.2222
>> alpha=lambda1/Cm;
>> beta=lambda2/Cm;
>> A=[-alpha-beta,beta;beta/rho,-beta/rho];
>> %Find A inverse
>> Ainv=(1/det(A))*[A(2,2),-A(1,2);-A(2,1),A(1,1)];
>> %Set up external input
>> F=0.06
F =
0.0600
>> %Find the particular solution
>> TP=-Ainv*[F/Cm;0]
TP =
6.0000
6.0000
>> %Find solution for initial conditions Tm=0 and Td=0
>> [V,D]=eig(A);
>> Vinv=(1/det(V))*[V(2,2),-V(1,2);-V(2,1),V(1,1)];
>> C=-Vinv*TP;
>> Ev=diag(D);
>> %Find response times using equations above
>> tRmixed=Cm*log(2)/(lambda1+lambda2)
tRmixed =
8.0001
>> tRdeep=rho*Cm*(log(2)/(lambda1*lambda2))*(lambda1+lambda2)
tRdeep =
80.0000
>> %Next is the Quasi Equilibrium Estimate of Tm
>> Tmshort=F/(lambda1+lambda2)
Tmshort =
2
>> %Next is the Long Term Equilibrium Tm and Td
>> Tmlong=F/lambda1
Tmlong =
6
>> Tdlong=F/lambda1
Tdlong =
6
>> %Set up Tm and Td solutions
>> Tm@(t)(C(1)*V(1,1)*exp(Ev(1)*t)+C(2)*V(1,2)*exp(Ev(2)*t)+TP(1));
>> Tm=@(t)(C(1)*V(1,1)*exp(Ev(1)*t)+C(2)*V(1,2)*exp(Ev(2)*t)+TP(1));
>> Td=@(t)(C(1)*V(2,1)*exp(Ev(1)*t)+C(2)*V(2,2)*exp(Ev(2)*t)+TP(2));
>> %We plot Tm and Td over a few Tm response times
>> time=linspace(0,4*tRmixed,100);
>> figure
>> plot(time,Tm(time),time,Td(time),'+');
>> xlabel('Time')
>> ylabel('T_m');
>> title('Ocean Layer Temperatures');
>> legend('Mixed Layer','Deep Layer');
Temperature vs. time plot over short time period as we see how the two layers of the ocean, the mixed
layer and the deep layer, experience temperature change as time passes due to external inputs that
contribute to the greenhouse effect, such as CO
2
and deep sea vents. Here we see the mixed layer is more
affected by the external factors than the deep layer as the trend line for the mixed layer starts at 0 but
rapidly approaches a higher temperature. Since the mixed layer is closer to the atmosphere, a higher
amount of CO
2
would reach this part of the ocean so the result is expected.
>> time=linspace(0,8*tRmixed,300);
>> figure
>> plot(time,Tm(time),time,Td(time),'+');
>> xlabel('Time in Years')
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Time
T
m
Ocean Layer Temperatures
Mixed Layer
Deep Layer
Figure 1: Simple Two Box Climate Model: Short Time Scale
>> ylabel('Temperature Degrees C');
>> title('Ocean Layer Temperatures');
>> legend('Mixed Layer','Deep Layer');
Temperature vs. time plot over middling time period as we see how the two layers of the ocean, the
mixed layer and the deep layer, experience temperature change as time passes due to external inputs
that contribute to the greenhouse effect, such as CO
2
and deep sea vents. Here we see the mixed layer is
more affected by the external factors than the deep layer as the trend line for the mixed layer starts at 0
but rapidly approaches a higher temperature. However, compared to the first graph of short time period,
we see the deep layer is increasing the pace of temperature rise and is closer to the trendline of the
mixed layer. Over time, some factor (or factors) seems to have caused a disturbance in the deep oceanic
layer causing it to warm faster than it had previously.
>> time=linspace(0,6*tRdeep,500);
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Time in Years
T
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
D
e
g
r
e
e
s
C
Ocean Layer Temperatures
Mixed Layer
Deep Layer
Figure 2: Simple Two Box Climate Model: Mid Time Scale
>> figure
>> plot(time,Tm(time),time,Td(time),'+');
>> xlabel('Time in Years')
>> ylabel('Temperature Degrees C');
>> title('Ocean Layer Temperatures');
>> legend('Mixed Layer','Deep Layer');
Temperature vs. time plot over long time period as we see how the two layers of the ocean, the mixed
layer and the deep layer, experience temperature change as time passes due to external inputs that
contribute to the greenhouse effect, such as CO
2
and deep sea vents. Here we see BOTH the mixed layer
and deep layer equally affected by the external factors as the trendlines for both layers start at 0 but
rapidly approaches a higher temperature. Eventually the temperatures reached by the mixed layer and
0 100 200 300 400 500
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Time in Years
T
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
D
e
g
r
e
e
s
C
Ocean Layer Temperatures
Mixed Layer
Deep Layer
Figure 3: Simple Two Box Climate Model: Long Time Scale
the deep layer become almost the same. Over time, external factors seemed to have caused various
oceanic disturbances that caused the mixed layer and deep layer to warm at up an extremely rapid rate.
The approximate response time for the mixed layer was 8.0001, or 8, years.
The approximate response time for the deep layer was 80 years.
The quasi mixed ocean layer equilibrium was 2.
Conclusion
We have successfully modeled the trends in temperature increase in the mixed layer and the deep
layers of the ocean over a short time period, middling time period, and long time period. We have found
that the response time of the deep layer is much longer than the response time of the mixed layer. It is
interesting to consider the interactions at work between the mixed layer and deep layer and between
the mixed layer and external forces such as carbon dioxide gas from the atmosphere and pollution. Once
the mixed layer has been affected, we see how over time the deep layer is also affected since it only
interacts with the mixed layer. The trends found in the graphs for this project can serve as the basis for
convincing a skeptical audience of the severity of oceanic warming over time. The last graph is especially
convincing when the audience sees the trend of rapid temperature rise in both the deep layer and the
mixed layer. They know that not only one part of the ocean is affected, but all of it. Consider the
consequences: rise in global temperature, sea levels, melted ice caps, weather pattern extremes, and
disturbance of living ecosystems, marine life in particular[4]. The data from these graphs, combined with
solid evidence such as graphs on trends of global temperature fluctuations, rise in sea levels, rise in
carbon dioxide levels, etc., would make a very convincing argument that could persuade government
agencies and the public alike to take action.
References
[1] J. Peterson. Calculus for Biologists: A Beginning-Getting Ready for Models and Their Analysis: Fourth
Edition. Gneural Gnome Press, 2012. URL: http://www.lulu.com/Gneural Gnome
[2] Westbrook, G. K. et al. Escape of methane gas from the seabed along the West Spitsbergen
continental margin. Geophysical Research Letters 10.1029/2009GL039191, 2009
[3] Emanuel, Kerry. A Simple Model of Multiple Climate Regimes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107,
1029-2001, 2002.
[4] National Climatic Data Center. Global Climate Change Indicators. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) webpage, 2012. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators/