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2 2 4 9 - 5 2 1 5 Te SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHALLENGES OF ESCALATING GLOBAL DESERTIFICATION: WATER AND FOOD CRISIS DESERTED Exclusive Columns LUC GNACADJA, Executive Secretary, UNCCD BHIM ADHIKARI, United Nations University THE INDIA ECONOMY REVIEW
THE GREAT INDIAN DREAM A N I I P M T H I N K T A N K & G R E A T I N D I A N D R E A M F O U N D A T I O N J O U R N A L TO TAKE FORWARD THE PHILOSOPHY OF COMMITMNET TO OUR GREAT NATION EPITOMISED IN THE PATH BREAKING BOOK THE GREAT INDIAN DREAM is now PRAISES FOR THE GID Dream Great Indian R E T H I N K E D I F Y D E L I N E A T E Te Kanan Dhru Founder, Research Founda- tion for Governance in India Rabin Majumder Advocate on Record, Supreme Court of India Stephen Lea Professor of Psychology, University of Exeter Gaurav Shah CMD & CIO IndiaSocial Fund As India marches towards conquering a center-stage in the global affairs and is being discussed in almost all global forums, it becomes increasingly important for the Indians - across the world - to undertake thoughtful study of issues of concern within and without. Thorough research, engaging analysis and careful debate, thus, become extremely crucial, especailly at this point of time. Initiatives such as The Great Indian Dream by the IIPM Think Tank create the much-needed platform in furthering such dialogues and carrying out the innovative exploration into socio- economic spaces in India. Kudos to the team for such commendable work. One feels young by seeing its ex facie presentation and contents thereof. The editorial team senses the catching minds of the writers and viewers. The Great Indian Dream journal as a whole looks excellent and intellectual. The contents list is also very interesting and comprehensive. This knowledge based initiative is great information resource for the readers and potentially change the way we think about them. Shailendra Sharma Programme Director, Pratham, New Delhi Ana Lapuh Journalist and writer, Slovenia Alamgir Alam Former Speaker, Jharkhand The journal has a collection of perspectives on issues concerning different sections of society but its long term impact is on all of us. The columns in the Journal looks rather dashing, excellently designed. At the same time the Journal is full of rich content and covers wide range of topics. The GID has done a great job by successfully exploring several serious children related issues which have direct impact on our society and country. D ream G re a t In d ian R E T H I N K E D I F Y D E L I N E A T E A B & E M O N T H L Y S U P P L E M E N T , A U G - 2 0 1 1 AN IIPM THINK TANK & GREAT INDIAN DREAM FOUNDATION JOURNAL T e M AJOR ON M INORS MAJOR POLICY FAILURES THAT DEPRIVE MINORS OF PROPITIOUS ENVIRONMENT FOR SURVIVAL AND GROWTH Malnourishment is just not about calorie de ciency MALNOURISHED MI NORS 10 Why India needs to invest in developing skills? POLICY PERSPECTIVE 30 RATIONALE OF I RRATIONALITY 38 Where economics and psychology met! Please send your feedback to: sray.agarwal@iipm.edu 4 T H E I N D I A E C O N O MY R E V I E W FOUNDER : Dr. M. K. Chaudhuri EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Arindam Chaudhuri EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Prasoon.S. Majumdar DEPUTY EDITOR: Sray Agarwal ASSISTANT EDITOR: Mrinmoy Dey CONSULTING EDITORS: Prashanto Banerji, K K Srivastava, Arindam Paul RESEARCH FELLOWS: Akram Hoque, Amir Hossain, Sayan Ghosh
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In no event shall the IIPM Think Tank be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive, or consequential damages of any kind whatsoever with respect to the and materials, although the reader may freely use the research and material provided, the IIPM Think Tank retains all trademark right and copyright on all the text and graphics. We are keen to hear from anyone, who would like to know more about IIPM Think Tanks Publications. You can e-mail us on sray.agarwal@iipm.edu or alternatively call us at +91 9818244963 CREDITS (F)ACT SHEET We have become a Garbage Nation with so much Wastage! Prasoon S. Majumdar............................................. ........................................... 05 Cowboy or Spaceship Economy Siddhartha Mitra................................................................................................ 06 Virtual Water Trade: Panacea for Water Scarcity M. Dinesh Kumar & O. P. Singh ...................................................................... 10 Drylands and Desertication: Challenges & Opportunities Bhim Adhikari ............................. ........................................................................ 14 Food Security and Life in Soils Gopikrishna SR................................. ........................................... ....................... 18 Desertication and Food Crisis in India: What Media can Do? Mrinal Chatterjee ......................................... ..................................................... 20 Stranded on Dryland: Future of South Asia Sowmya Suryanarayanan..................... ........................................................... 24 Is there Political will to End these Dj Vu Drought Tragedies? Luc Gnacadja............................. ......................................................................... 28 The G-20 Agriculture Talks Trap Mercin Menkes............ ....................................................................................... 30 Too Many Empty Bowls R.B. Bhagat ............................. ............................................................................ 34 Axing the Forests Prabha Panth ............................. ......................................................................... 38 Cover Design by : Satyajit Datta 5 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M The First Words and The Last Word Editorial WE HAVE BECOME A GARBAGE NATION WITH SO MUCH WASTAGE! A s a child, whenever I used to nd excuses for not eating and waste thereby, my mom used to rep- rimand me by saying, if you dishonour food by wasting it then some day food would dishonour you. She used to keep reminding us that there are hundreds of families out there for whom even to manage a mere handful of rice is a daily struggle. This childhood learn- ing had created such an impact that none in my family ever wasted even a grain of food served. But on the same aspect our nation presents a dichotomy when it comes to wastage. Be it food, electricity, water, or for anything which is termed in the dictionary of econom- ics as a scarce resource is squandered to an extent that, if they are restored, it can by itself take care of all short- ages and scarcities India is currently facing. Let us start with food, our most critical resource, for which almost 300 million Indians struggle for, day in and day out. According to a study undertaken at the behest of Min- istry of Food Processing Industries, India wastes agri- cultural food items over a staggering $12 billion annu- ally. To get the gure in the right perspective, this wasted produce is enough to feed Indias over 200 mil- lion people, without even calling for marginal or any production increase. Thats food, and now power. The abuse of electricity is so rampant that it has resulted in astronomical wast- ages. Way back in 2002, it was projected that our econ- omy can conserve $12 billion by 2005 simply by impro- vising efciency in power generation and eliminating transmission and distribution bottlenecks. It goes with- out saying that nothing close to this benchmark has been achieved so far. Whats more, if we were to con- sider the energy efciency (in addition to electricity), the situation is even more dispiriting. For, D. H. Pai Panandiker of RPG Foundation bemoans the ridicu- lous excesses: to manufacture Rs.1 crore of GDP, India deploys four times as much energy resources as Japan or UK and 2.7 times as Brazil does. Moreover, massive power loss during transmission and distribution (which is pegged at 45 per cent) due to rampant power thefts which amount to a staggering 1.5 per cent of GDP. Cur- Prasoon S. Majumdar, Executive Editor rently, around 500 million people live with the regular problem of power-cuts. This boils down to a loss of $12.5 billion, all due to T&D inefciency. The same holds true for water too. Here too our scale of water wastage is frightening, and even more frightening is our ruthless ignorance towards it. The World Bank report of October 2005 stated that while developed countries have provisions for storage of nearly 5,000 cubic metres per capita and other developing countries like China, South Africa have made storage facility for at least 1,000 cubic metres per capita, India barely stores 30 days of rainfall. No doubt the public water system is the major cause of water shortages. Delhi government (supplies 220 liters of water per capita per day) is still clueless about stealing of its 50 per cent of total water supply! Thus, after the loss, the government is left with merely 110 litres of water per capita per day! Consider this: A random survey of 27,000 household connections in Ahmedabad revealed that 25 per cent of the water was wasted, owing to leakages in the sys- tem. Regardless of the results of this micro-study, one can safely presume that the case in other cities and towns would be no different. All in all, this wastage phenomenon is ubiquitous as far as India is concerned. But what is amazing is the irony this phenomenon depicts. How is it that the soci- ety known for its frugality can at the same time indulge in so much wastage and be silent about it? If my mom reprimands us for wasting even a grain of rice then so is the case with all such moms across the country. It is sad that we have miserably failed to translate our home grown lessons for our universal good!! Hopefully we would...someday.. Happy reading. Best, Prasoon S. Majumdar 6 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K ing might have underestimated the multidimensionality of human progress: as civilization progresses and the scarci- ties mentioned by Boulding crop up, societies might switch to exploiting pos- sible paths/dimensions of progress that have hitherto been unexploited. Below, I build on these foundations by drawing on the lessons which we can derive from history; recent trends in human behav- iour that have just begun to emerge as the scarcities mentioned by Boulding become more imminent; rudimentary economic analysis; and of course, cheer- ful optimism! Let us start with history and the case study of the industrial revolution in Brit- ain which began around the mid-eight- eenth century and later spread through United States and the rest of Europe. Robert Lucas Jr. describes the transfor- mation brought about by the industrial revolution in the following manner: For the rst time in history, the liv- ing standards of the masses of ordinary people have (had) begun to undergo sustained growth ... Nothing remotely like this economic behavior has (had) happened before But as Charles Dickens remarks (though in a totally different vein) in his novel set in 19 th century Europe, It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. This is because history tells us that economic growth was obtained through a shocking rape of air and water resources. Rivers became a burial ground for waste products from the growing manu- facturing sector producing output through technologies that were much dirtier than those in use today, and those dumped by an ever growing SIDDHARTHA MITRA Professor of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata Formerly: Director (Research), CUTS International COWBOY OR SPACESHIP ECONOMY Certain trajectories of human development are inevitable and ultimately welfare enhancing and thus mankind will continue to prosper on this seemingly constrained planet W e operate in a world of mostly scarce or exhaust- ible resources miner- als, forests, sh, under- ground water, air quality etc. This scarcity is often said to be the reason for the expected trade-off between environ- mental conservation and income growth. Thus, according to the conventional ar- gument, as growth brings a country to frontiers dened by resource availabili- ties or tolerable levels of pollution, it realises it is time to slow down. The current recognition of the men- tioned trade-off has however not been associated with an adequate recall of what transpired in the developed world around two and a half centuries back when the frontiers seemed very far off, the prospects for economic advance- ment rosy, and the average levels of material afuence unsatisfactory. Ex- actly the opposite choices were made the resource base and the atmos- pheric and aquatic environment were plundered to race ahead and ll empty stomachs and willing purses. But this article is not be a critique of the developed world, nor a piece written in defence of the unprecedented pace of development in emerging India and China and in deance of Western at- tempts to curb that pace. Rather, it is an attempt to draw upon history to show that certain trajectories of human devel- opment are inevitable and ultimately welfare enhancing; and to synergise recent evidence and economic analysis to express optimism that mankind will continue to prosper on this seemingly constrained planet. The essence of my argument is based on the contention that while very many resources on this planet are scarce and exhaustible and on the verge of dwin- dling to miniscule levels in the course of a few decades there are other such as solar and wind energy that are not only inexhaustible, but capable of becoming better substitutes for their scarce and exhaustible counterparts through the use of human capital which continues to appreciate through the processes of learning and doing and research and development; and yet others which are renewable but exhaustible if depleted rapidly (sheries, timber etc.) yet sustain- able through an appropriate balance between consumption and production. In 1965 Adlai Stevenson, the US ambassador to the United Nations (UN) made a speech at the UN in which he said We travel together, passengers on a little space ship, dependent on its vulnerable reserves of air and soil. In 1966 Kenneth E. Boulding elabo- rated on this phrase in the title of an essay, The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth. Boulding criticized past characterizations of the world economy as a cowboy economy with unlimited resources and continued: The closed economy of the future might similarly be called the spaceman economy, in which the earth has become a single spaceship, without unlimited reservoirs of anything, either for extrac- tion or for pollution, and in which, therefore, man must nd his place in a cyclical ecological system. But while Boulding correctly drew attention to the scarcities and their con- straining impacts, was the symbolic use of the space ship appropriate? Above, I have sketched out the foundations of my argument which stresses that Bould- A M I D S T A L T E R N A T I V E S DESERTED 8 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K 9 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M when no immediate and common disas- ters confront the population, individual actors rms and households be- have atomistically i.e. they fail to take into account the cumulative impact of their actions. The impressive economic growth seen in Britain during the 18 th
and the 19 th century was a result of spec- tacular advances in industry originating from the mechanization of production and consequent increase in the produc- tivity of labour as well as opportunities for its specialized application; and from changes in agriculture with the enclo- sure movement feeding industrys ap- petite for cheap labour, and productiv- ity increasing due to inventions of sophisticated agricultural machines. While this was the transformation which took place at the level of the economy, one has to realize that each individual contributed his bit to the overall story by either responding to the entrepreneurial or employment oppor- tunities provided by the industrial revo- lution or through individual innovations. Even the government contributed to economic growth through the contro- versial enclosure movement. But, though individuals at a low level of income strive for a betterment of their economic conditions, they are of- ten unable to fully anticipate the adverse changes brought about by the accumula- tion of the adverse side effects of their While fast developing India and China have seen rapidly rising pollution levels, one has to realize that these countries are decades behind the West- ern World in terms of development for example, the per capita income in India is still at pre 20 th century US lev- els. As development takes the popula- tion to higher levels of income, there is no reason why the natural demand for a cleaner environment will not lead to pro-environment measures. Evidence shows that China has responded faster to the need for cleaning up the environ- ment than Western countries did after their industrial revolutions. Emphasis has been placed in China on meeting the countrys ever increasing power demand a natural consequence of economic growth through an in- crease in the share of hydroelectric power in total power production as well as massive increases in solar cell and wind turbine production. In regard to the constraints posed by the scarcity of exhaustible (non renew- able, and renewable but exhaustible) resources, two important trends need to be pointed out. First, all over the world, experiments and pilot projects are being launched to replace scarce non renewable sources such as coal and oil with renewable and inexhaustible sources of energy (such as sunlight and wind). Let us take one example power consumption in the rural areas, power can be captured through the use of solar cells and then used later at night; for the urban areas, pilot models of near net zero energy homes, some- times for entire communities, which create almost as much as energy as they consume over the year but smoothen out daily surpluses and shortages through interactions with the grid have been set up; and nally reputed engi- neering rms have come up with trac- table models of thermal solar produc- tion which involve conversion of solar energy into steam and the use of the resultant heat energy for production and distribution of electricity through a centralized grid. Another reaction to scarcity is anti- consumerism recently, the Buy Nothing Day celebrated on the rst day of Thanks Giving (the ofcial start of the shopping season in the Anglo Saxon world) attracted over one million sup- porters spread over 40 countries. With the internet generating an exponential increase in the spread of ideas this movement and similar ones might spread rapidly. Related innovations could be government efforts to discour- age consumption of items that are inten- sive in scarce materials through taxa- tion, greater and more efcient use of recycling etc. But what will happen to the growth of national incomes? The rst thing to note here is that the annual decadal growth rate of national income per capita for the United States (annual average rate of growth of national income per capita taken over a decade) has hov- ered around the two percent mark over the last 120 years, with uctuations be- ing dictated by recessions and booms. In other words, there has been no per- manent dip in the growth rate of na- tional income. In the future, if the anti-consumerism movement gains momentum as a reac- tion to the scarcity of raw materials and lifestyle diseases (brought about by over- consumption of food and gadget based sedentary living) and brings about a de- crease in the purchases of new clothes, consumer durables and even food, while being accompanied by greater recycling of materials, the resulting decrease in consumption demand should drive in- come down. But such changes which tend to depress income growth will be neutralised by others investments in new technologies to promote efcient use of renewable resources; and an ex- ponential increase in the marketing of products that are extremely human capital intensive but not resource inten- sive for example, e-books and expen- sive software. Truth be told, comparison of the esti- mate of current national income with that generated a century from today might be rendered almost meaningless because of radical changes in the entire consumption basket from one prima- rily based on natural and depletable resources to that which attaches much greater importance to inexhaustible renewable resources and the use of hu- man capital. But things dear to human- ity such as the pursuit of knowledge and art would go on and become much eas- ier; and life would probably become more comfortable as the combination of greater depth in information networks and meaningful governmental interven- tions would help people optimise their consumption patterns with greater fore- sight and lead longer, healthier and more fullling lives. Needless to say, I have abstracted from the ebb and ow of fortunes which often mark human progress over a much longer term. (SIDDHARTHA MITRA is currently Professor of Economics at Jadavpur Uni- versity, Kolkata. In his earlier appoint- ments he has been Director (Research), CUTS International and a Reader at the Gokhale Institute of Politics and Eco- nomics, Pune. Prof. Mitra has also taught economics at the University of Melbourne; and Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi. He has served on consultative com- mittees to the Ministry of Environment, Government of India and also as consult- ant to the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), New Delhi and Center for Development Re- search (ZEF), Bonn. The views expressed in the article are personal and do not reect the ofcial policy or position of the organisation.) WITH INDIA AND CHINA STILL BEING A DEVELOPING NATION, CAN THEY AFFORD TO ADOPT EXPENSIVE GREEN PRODUCTION METHODS? number of households needed to service the industrial revolution. Quite obvi- ously, the generation of incomes was of paramount importance and everything else took a backseat. The tale of worsening air quality was equally gruesome. London and Edin- burgh became infamous for their smoke and fog, with the former nicknamed the Big Smoke. There was a massive in- crease in the emissions of hydrogen chloride and sulphur dioxide, one of the major contributors of acid rain. Human health and well being were often compromised during this indus- trial march. In the rst half of the 18 th
century, London and Paris, with respec- tively 1 and 2.4 million inhabitants in 1850, experienced recurring epidemics of cholera and typhoid because of water pollution. In 1832 over 20,000 Parisians died in a cholera outbreak; London ex- perienced similar outbreaks. Returning to air pollution, an obvious effect was disruption of trafc. But respiratory difculties and sometimes deaths were also a consequence. For the uninitiated, a week of smog in 1873 accounted for 700 deaths in London while the Great London Smog of December 1952 ac- counted for 4,000 more. While economic models often credit their actors with perfect foresight, in the real world this is seldom the case. Moreover, under normal conditions, efforts. This is just as well because giant technological leaps, though ideal, are simply not possible. For example, it is too utopian to think of a change which is associated with a switch from operat- ing with tools which are neither very productive nor produce much pollution to those that are very productive and at the same time do not dent the aquatic and atmospheric environment. In other words, technologies inevitably pass through a trajectory associated with low productivity and low pollution; then with high productivity and high pollu- tion; and nally with productivity main- tained at the mentioned high levels but much lower pollution. However, once economic improve- ments are accompanied by the rise of other evils (such as pollution or the rise of economic inequalities or exploitation) corrective measures gradually evolve, especially in democracies. Moreover, recent history suggests that countries operating under political systems that would not be classied as democratic (for example, single party rule) often en- courage their citizens to voice their opinions about problems such as pollu- tion which are generally not associated with a great deal of controversy. Such voicing of opinions is often a safety valve which prevents the stirring of unrest resulting from discontent in regard to other issues. Going back to the British experience of a positive association of water and air pollution with economic growth, this prompted reasonably swift remedial action. In the mid 19 th century, London became one of the rst cities in the world to build a sewer system and im- prove drinking water supply through the Metropolis Water Act of 1852 which forced water companies to move their intakes upstream and regulate their l- tration and storage. Similarly, following the Great London Smog, the rst Clean Air Act was passed which moved power stations and heavy industry from the densely populated large cities and made the use of smokeless coal mandatory. Between 1970 and 1994, the emissions of sulphur dioxide, one of the main contributors to acid rain, fell by around 60 percent. A M I D S T A L T E R N A T I V E S DESERTED DESERTED 10 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K B L U E G O L D 11 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M Are food import and water trade related to each other and is virtual water trade a viable solution? creases the ability to utilize the renew- able water resources available in man-made and natural water resource systems. The increased agricultural wa- ter withdrawal thus made leads to more virtual water trade, these are the main assumptions we started with. The linear regression performed for analyzing the effect of agricultural land on the gures of water withdrawal for agriculture showed no effect. But as we have already discussed, these gures only show the blue water withdrawal. It does not take into account the green water usage by these countries. For many water scarce countries, which are rich in arable land, soil moisture use is a signicant compo- nent of the total water use for agricul- ture. Therefore, we ran the regression between gross cultivated land and effec- tive agricultural water use. VIRTUAL WATER TRADE VS REGIONAL WATER TRANSFERS Now let us examine the implications of these two arguments for a water scarce country, characterized by regional vari- ations in water endowments, for making policy choices between regional vir- tual water trade and water transfer. For this, we consider a food importing country. China, SADC countries and Spain are some of the countries/regions in the world that are characterized by major variations in water endowments, and rely on food imports. In Haihe watershed of northern China, the per capita renewable water availability is 358m 3 /annum against 3327m 3 /annum in Zhujiang watershed of South China, whereas the country average is 2195m 3 / capita/annum (Yang 2002: pp1). We have to start with a reasonable assumption that water-rich regions have lesser amount of arable land as com- pared to water scarce regions in per capita terms, based on the evidences provided in the earlier section, and that arable land in such regions is already put to maximum use. From food self- sufciency point of view, it might make sense for the country to transfer water from the water-rich region to the water scarce region even if it may be at the cost of bringing down the net re- newable water of the water-rich re- extremely water-rich countries record high virtual water imports. On the contrary, there are several countries which are not really water-rich, but are on the verge of approaching the water stress mark. Examples are Af- ghanistan, Malawi, India, Thailand and Denmark. Their renewable water avail- ability is below 3000 m 3 /capita mark, but export food grains, livestock, poultry and livestock products. The food grain ex- port from India during 2000-01 stood at 2.39 million ton. It is a known fact that countries like India are already facing acute water stress in many pockets. For the depletion of groundwater resources and degradation of land through their intensive use, the all time record achieved in cereal production in India would not have been possible. The very fact that virtual water ows out of a relatively water scarce semi-arid country to a cold and humid country itself indicates that the goals of improved global water use efciency and distribution of scarcity does not get realized through virtual water trade as it happens today in the global context. This does not mean that water availabil- ity does not act as a variable in the food production function in a country con- text. It only means that total water sufciency does not necessarily mean food self-sufciency in a practical sense. Following explanations would help a better appreciation of the argument. A country can be water-rich through two ways. In the rst case, the magni- tude of rainfall, runoff and groundwater recharge a unit land area receives be- comes very high (examples are Finland, Japan, Indonesia and Malaysia). In the second case, the rainfall, runoff and groundwater recharge rates are very low, but the amount of land which re- ceives it (catchment area) is high owing to low population densities.
ARABLE LAND CONTROL AND VIRTUAL WATER TRADE DYNAMIC The reason for this strong correlation between cultivated land and virtual wa- ter trade is increased ability to tap the water in the soil prole with increase in per capita agricultural land. Also in- creased per capita agricultural land in- T he argument that food import is a strong indicator of level of water decit that economies face; and that all economies around the world which face acute water scarcity problems can and should meet their water demand for food through cereal imports from water-rich coun- tries has become dominant in the dis- cussions on ways of facing global water challenges (Allan 1997: pp 4; Warner 2003: pp127). This has almost become a truism because some of the largest virtual water importing countries, the Middle East and North Africa, face serious water decits and some of the virtual water exporting countries are water-rich. It is true that when a crop which has high embedded water is grown in a hu- mid, water-rich country and traded with a arid or semi-arid country in return for a crop which has high economic ef- ciency (in Rs/m 3 ), there would be a net water gain for the water scarce country as virtual water ows out of the water- rich country. With food imports, coun- tries/regions achieve a net gain in water, which otherwise would have to be used from their own internally available re- sources (Chapagain and Hoekstra 2003: pp1). But the operational aspect of this concept needs to be looked into. Such an analysis would go far beyond mere agro-climatic variations and compara- tive water advantages, which scholars have already considered. There are factors other than mere climate and water surplus that would determine the success of converting this idea of virtual water trade into a practi- cal problem-solving tool for water stressed countries, just as according to Earle and Turton (2003), there are fac- tors that cause reliance on virtual water. While the virtual water trade concept is closely related to notion of comparative economic advantage, farm level deci- sions regarding crop production and marketing would be inuenced by pub- lic policy regarding the economy, inter- national trade and the prices of inputs and outputs (Wichelns, 2003). Even in water scarce countries, there are major political economic considerations in allocating water resources across sec- VIRTUAL PANACEA FOR WATER SCARCITY WATER TRADE tors and within sectors (Parveen and Faisal undated; Warner, 2003). Virtual water trade would also depend on the geopolitics of the region. But, the pur- pose of this contribution is to examine whether the much talked about water management goals such as global water use efciency and distribution of scarcity, as argued by many scholars, are really achievable through virtual water trade. RENEWABLE WATER AVAILABILITY AND VIRTUAL WATER TRADE There are many water-rich countries that are still resorting to food imports in an extensive way. There are a total of 65 countries belong to water-rich cate- gory that have trade decit in virtual water. The amount of water imported in the virtual form is more than exported. The trade decit ranges from a lowest of 4.9m 3 /capita/annum to 838m 3 /capita/ annum. For instance, Japan, which has a renewable water availability of 3390 m 3 /capita, is heavily dependent on ce- real imports for its domestic consump- tion and the water equivalent of this amount to 645m 3 /capita annually. Many O. P. SINGH Assistant Professor, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University M. DINESH KUMAR Executive Director, Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy, Hyderabad DESERTED 12 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K B L U E G O L D 13 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M value realization might demand real- location of more than the real volu- metric surplus available within the water surplus region to a water-scarce region. But such additional transfers have to satisfy two conditions. First: the incremental value realized exceeds the cost of such transfer. Second: mecha- nisms exist for compensating for the economic and livelihood losses suffered by the water-rich region (Kumar et al., 2008a). This does not mean that water trans- fer is the only option for water decit countries/regions. Wherever possibili- ties exist virtual water trade should be encouraged. But for a region, which is well-endowed with good arable land, it would be the natural choice to bring in water from a water-rich region to im- prove the efciency of use of land, and thereby also efciency of use of water from the natural environment which remains under-utilized in surplus re- gions. But, physical efciency of irriga- tion water use is extremely low in third world countries resulting from absence of proper pricing leading to reduced water productivity. It has been found that when confronted with the scarcity value of water, farmers make efforts to improve the efciency with which water is used (Kumar 2005: pp39-51). MAJOR FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS 1. Cross country analyses of virtual water trade involving 131 countries show that renewable water availabil- ity does not have any bearing on virtual water trade volume. Further analyses show that virtual water ow dynamic is controlled more by the access to arable land than access to renewable freshwater. Gross cropped area explains virtual water trade to an extent of 40% with one per cent level of signicance. complacency for water-rich nations; while unwanted pessimism for water scarce nations. Access to arable land equally or even more concerns coun- trys food security and therefore should be integrated with other con- siderations in national food and wa- ter policy making. 5. Assessing the water management challenges posed by nations purely from the point of view of renewable water availability and aggregate de- mands will be dangerous. Access to water in the soil prole would be an important determinant of effective water availability for food produc- tion, from which a major portion of the aggregate demand comes. 6. The dominant water management paradigm suggested for water scarce countries that are characterized by major regional variations in the re- source endowment and still relying on food imports is virtual water transfer. But, this could spell doom if arable land is limited in the well endowed area. Under such circum- stances, inter-regional water transfer options could be explored thereby enabling productive use of both land and water for crop production at the country level. Transfer of water in addition to the volumetric surplus available in the water-rich region also might be desirable as it helps im- prove the economic outputs from the use of water. 7. Policy Inferences: The regional de- bates in South Asia, China and some of the SADC states on setting policy priorities to deal with water short- ages for food production are heavily inuenced by virtual water trade argument. Our analyses show that while global water use efciency and availability of blue water for food production could be important con- cerns that inuence country water policies of water-poor nations, they could not be the decisive factors. Availability of arable land that ef- fectively increases the potential for tapping water in the soil prole therefore effective water availability, and degree of dependence of a country on water for economic growth and its population for liveli- hood are important considerations. Regional food trade has limited rel- evance from a global water use ef- ciency perspective. But, there could be a new window of opportunity, if we change the rationale for virtual water trade from water use efciency and distribution of scarcity to land use efciency; adopt productivity poten- tial of water as the water management goal; and we consider regional water transport as a technically feasible op- tion. The idea is to physically transfer the water to naturally water scarce re- gions; put it to use; and then transfer food grains produced to the water- rich and land-poor regions. The volume of virtual water embedded in food export can be treated as an ex- change for taking water out of surplus areas. This will help avert any inter-state conicts that could arise from decisions to take water out of water-rich states. Another important benet of such transfer arrangements is that the water scarce regions that intensively use their endogenous water for livelihood will continue to have their irrigation-based livelihoods. Massive transfer of water to these water starved regions and its subsequent use for irrigation would also result induced groundwater re- charge (Kumar et al., 2010). The impact will be double: rst, water transfer will reduce groundwater pumping, and the return ows from irrigation would in- crease recharge thereby reducing the stress on groundwater. The increase in land productivity achieved through bringing rain-fed crops under irrigation will have to justify the investments for transfer of surplus water from water- rich regions to water decit regions. But, as Kumar et al. (2008a) notes, the amount of water to be transferred could be more than the real volumetric sur- plus available within the water-rich re- gion, if the incremental value realized in the water-scarce region exceeds the cost of such additional water transfer, and mechanisms exist for compensat- ing for the economic and livelihood losses suffered by the water-rich region through such transfers. (M. DINESH KUMAR is currently the Executive Director of Institute for Re- source Analysis and Policy (IRAP). He had worked very closely with many re- puted international and national agencies like UNICEF. He has nearly 120 publica- tions to his credit, including three books; many book chapters; and several papers in international peer-reviewed journals. O. P. SINGH joined the International Water Management Institute India Project Ofce as Consultant in February 2002. He has more than thirteen years of rich experience of working with aca- demic, research institution and NGOs in the area of natural resource economics and management. He has more than 60 publications to his credit including arti- cles in national and international jour- nals, book chapters, monographs etc. The views expressed in the article are personal and do not reect the ofcial policy or position of the organisation.) 2. Increase in access to arable land leads to increase in effective water withdrawal in agriculture, irrespec- tive of the strong mismatch between water richness and land richness. Many countries that are rich in ara- ble land are water-poor, which in turn increases the irrigation water requirement; and water drawn from the soil prole increases with culti- vated land. 3. Since virtual water often ows out of water-poor, but land-rich coun- tries to water-rich and land-poor countries, global water use ef- ciency and distribution of scarcity are difcult goals to be achieved through virtual water trade. When virtual water ows into a water-rich country, what is being achieved is improved land use efciency. 4. Assessing the future food security challenges posed to nations purely from a water resource perspective provide a distorted view of the food security scenario. It may bring in gion below the acceptable levels dened by total water sufciency. This is be- cause of two reasons: water in the soil prole, which is not considered in as- sessing renewable water availability, would still be available; and water suf- ciency for food production directly relates to availability of arable land. Water transfer would increase utiliza- tion of water resources for crop produc- tion at country level. With increased water availability for irrigation, the area under cultivation might also go up sig- nicantly resulting from increased land use intensity. As regards India, southern peninsula has vast amount of arable land that could be brought to intensive cultiva- tion, if water is provided (GOI 1999). Northern Chinese provinces that are now facing severe water shortage, have been practicing intensive irrigated agri- culture (Yang 2002). By embarking on major water transfer projects, the water management goal being achieved is improving the productivity of land in water scarce regions apart from equal- izing water richness. It has been es- tablished that irrigation water use ef- ciencies in arid and semi-arid, water scarce regions are much higher than that in humid, water-rich regions. All these arguments build a strong case for physical water transfer. While transfer of surplus water from water-rich regions to water scarce re- gions does not need a better economic rationale than increasing the productive use of the un-utilized water, the notable fact is that such transfers for agriculture lead to realization of greater economic value. The increase in land productivity achieved through bringing rain-fed crops under irrigation will have to jus- tify the investments for transfer of sur- plus water from water-rich regions to water decit regions. The incremental INTERNATIONAL WATER TRANSFER WOULD INCREASE UTILIZATION OF WATER RESOURCES FOR CROP PRODUCTION AT COUNTRY LEVEL Diversication of of livelihood strategies is a must in drylands in order to reduce the risk of income failure from any single source DRYLANDS AND DESERTIFICATION CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES BHIM ADHIKARI Programme Officer (Dryland Ecosystems), UNU-INWEH D rylands cover 40% of global land area and support almost one third of the worlds popu- lation (Adeel et al., 2008). Further, they feature some of the worlds fastest growing populations which have placed increasing pressures on these fragile ecosystems (Boone et al., 2007). Land degradation has be- come one of the pressing issues in dry- lands that has a greater drag on econo- mies that are heavily dependent on the agricultural sector (Alfsen et al., 1997). Poor management of land is one of the major causes of land degradation. Up to 71 percent of the worlds grasslands are reported to be degraded to some extent as a result of overgrazing, salini- zation, alkalinization, acidication and other processes (FAO/LEAD, 2006). Grasslands and rangelands in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid areas are particularly affected (Safriel, et al., 2005). The impact of land degradation has direct implications on foregone in- come and decreased food security (Barbier and Bishop, 1995). For exam- ple, it has been noted that the annual cost of degradation in the Sub-Saharan African countries is more or less equiv- alent to their mean agricultural growth thereby limiting the scope of rural de- velopment (Requier-Desjardins, 2006). The Millennium Ecosystem Assess- ment highlighted the fact that degrada- tion of dryland ecosystems will have negative impacts on biodiversity hotspots as well as human well-being through the loss of ecosystem services (MA, 2005). In many areas, farmers have been forced to place an emphasis on crops that are only economically vi- able which has reduced the resilience of these ecosystems to drought and other external factors (Safriel and Adeel, 2005). The population dynamics of the drylands combined with the limited supply of resources and unsuitable ag- ricultural techniques has lead to severe poverty, desertication and ultimately reduced the welfare in these regions. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHALLENGES IN DRYLANDS Dryland ecosystems are dened as ter- restrial areas where climate is classied as dry sub-humid, semi-arid, arid and hyper arid. They are characterized by high temperatures and solar radiation and low levels of precipitation which leads to high rates of evapotranspira- tion. The arid zones are characterized by low and unpredictable rainfall which allows pastoralism to be the dominant source of livelihood strategy (Nassef et al., 2009). Traditional livelihood strate- gies in the drylands are largely related to livestock and agriculture related ac- tivities. Pastoralists have adapted to the arid zones by creating a mobile yet large and diverse livestock herd that reduce risk created by a scarce resource base. The mobility of the livestock allows pastoralists to optimize the use of rangelands according to the uctuating availability of water, while the diversity and size of the herds provide insurance against stock loss during extreme weather shocks (Brooks, 2006). On the other hand, the semi-arid zone receives 15 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M 14 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K I S O L A T I N G I N C O M E S DESERTED 16 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K 17 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M a higher level of rainfall which allows the inhabitants of these regions to de- pend on crop-production as a source of subsistence livelihood. However, the seasonal nature of agriculture forces dryland populations to rely on a variety of livelihood strategies including hunt- ing, gathering, shing and non-farm activities (Ellis, 1998). This diversication of livelihood strategies allows the dryland population to reduce the risk of income failure from any single source and negate the volatility that is typically associated with the agricultural sector (Ellis, 1998). Also, synergies are found within a com- munity where different livelihood strat- egies such as crop and livestock produc- tion are practiced. For instance, cultivation of fodder can decrease the pressure of livestock on rangelands while the production of manure re- duces the dependence on fertilizer while enhancing crop production (Saf- riel and Adeel, 2005). However, the rapidly increasing population of the drylands places in- creased demands on the traditional forms of livelihoods, such as crop and livestock production. In response to the increased pressure, land users place the long-term viability of their livelihoods in jeopardy by adopting technologies that lead to further degradation of an already fragile resource base (Darkoh, 1998). Also, migration of inhabitants of less arid environments (high population density) to marginal arid lands (low population density) leads to conict and instability in the drylands since the local indigenous populations and migrants often compete for the same land-based resources (Darkoh, 1998). In many areas, there is a lack of clearly dened property rights that has reduced the efciency of existing live- lihood strategies. Land tenure policy in the last few decades has been driven by privatization and nationalization agendas in an attempt to reduce the stock of livestock by limiting the mo- bility of pastoralists (Leach and Mearns, 1996). Also, the privatization of lands was designed to provide an economic incentive for land users to invest in maintaining or improving land productivity. However, these policies failed to yield the desired re- sults because the resources were not truly open-access but were subject to communal obligations that ensured the sustainability of these resources (Scoones et al., 1993). The failure to acknowledge the true nature of these communal resources lead to further degradation as the drylands became available to non-traditional users who lacked awareness of the established rules (Fratkins and Mearns, 2003). Agricultural activities in the drylands is severely constrained due to the lack of technology and nancial market availability that allow the transfer of credit from savers to borrowers, result- ing in an efcient allocation of resourc- es while maximizing the investment potential for all farmers (Esguerra, 1996). Poverty alleviation in dryland communities is often contingent on the success of small-scale farming which has been shown to be the primary force behind economic growth in these re- gions (Kydd and Dorward, 2001). This is primarily due to the nature of small- scale farming that tends to be labour- intensive and the money generated by these operations tend to be spent on locally produced goods (Mayrand and Paquin, 2006). On the other hand, large-scale operations tend to be capi- tal-intensive and rely on external inputs. Inadequate systems for assessing rural entities, high transaction costs and a lack of an appropriate mechanism for credit enforcement have constrained the effectiveness of nancial markets in the drylands (Llanto, 2004). Despite an increase in international agricultural trade in the last decade, rural dryland communities have not experienced the benets that are typi- cally associated with market liberaliza- tion (Mayrand and Paquin, 2006). This can be primarily attributed to a shift from the traditional domestic market to the new global market. Increased trans- action costs, higher levels of risk and capital investments are typical charac- teristics of the global markets (Kydd and Dorward, 2001). Large-scale farmers are capable of absorbing high levels of risk and invest in expensive capital in- puts and therefore capture the majority of the new market share created via trade liberalization (Mayrand and Paquin, 2006). This results in a further increase in inequity and reduces the impact of trade liberalization on pov- erty alleviation since small-scale farm- ers are further marginalized. In order to achieve an equitable distribution of benets from trade liberalization it is imperative to implement domestic policies that aid small-scale farmers to fully participate in global markets. Agricultural subsidies in developed countries can also be considered to be barriers in the sustainable development of the drylands. Domestic subsidies cre- ate distortions by providing incentives for overproduction of certain crops which lead to prices that are lower than those found in an undistorted market (Diao et al., 2003). This downward trend in prices has a pronounced impact on the environmental and economic condi- tions of the drylands. For instance, cotton subsidies in the developed coun- tries have supposedly resulted in a yearly loss of US$250 million in West and Central African countries (Pfeifer et al., 2004). This loss of income has severe environmental consequences as farmers tend to increase agricultural production by expanding into marginal lands or forests to compensate for the lower prices which further decrease the primary productivity of the drylands. In Mexico for example, farmers increased corn production by expanding into for- est reserves due to the adverse new market conditions created by NAFTA (Nadal, 2000). It should be noted that the removal of these subsidies does not guarantee economic and environmental sustainability for the drylands. Finally, many African drylands are considered to be vulnerable to extreme weather events such as ooding and drought brought on by climate change which poses a signicant constraint for dry- land farmers (Cooper et al., 2008). In- creasing temperatures will lead to higher rates of evotranspiration exag- gerating the problems caused due to water scarcity. Since the majority of the dryland populations depend on land- based resources, climate change threat- ens the food security of the region by adding another layer of risk to the tra- ditional livelihood strategies. Although desertication is thought to occur by overexploitation of resources, it has also been argued that the inherent na- ture of a traditional livelihood such as pastoralism can contribute to the proc- ess (Safriel, 2004). All these socio-eco- nomic, institutional and environmental constraints strongly justify the need for promoting alternative livelihoods in marginal drylands.
WHAT CAN BE DONE? Drylands offer a number of oppertuni- ties to conserve local environment through creation of alternative liveli- hood systems (Reynolds et al, 2007). Some crucial interventions in drylands would be sustainable land management and integration of range management, wildlife management, and soil and wa- ter conservation. Further, rehabilitation of drylands such as forest management and desertication control will make great impact on the livelihoods of mar- ginalized pastoral communities in many dryland countries. Dryland ecosystems in these areas produce many important Ecosystem Services (ES), including regulation of water quantity and quality, biodiversity, erosion control and carbon sequestration (Thomas, 2008). How- ever, the failure of markets to internal- ize ecological externalities associated with dryland ecosystem services is the main obstacle for appreciating their values. Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs have been highlighted as one way of sustaining these valuable services as well as promoting alternative livelihood strategies in these areas (Thomas, 2008). For instance, PES schemes that focus on reducing land degradation and desertication through forest management and conservation, ecotourism, and sustainable land use in agriculture hold great promise for off- setting the growing environmental problems in drylands and improving the well-being of the local people. Further- more, sandstorm control and wind ero- sion reduction, conservation of biodi- versity, improved water productivity and ood erosion control are a few notable ES provided by rangelands in marginal drylands. Ecotourism continues to be a major source of household income in key rangeland regions, however, there is an urgent need for government policy to recognize the important role of com- munities in wildlife conservation and natural resource management within protected and community owned lands (Mortimore, 2009). Dryland conserva- tion agriculture has been highlighted as one specic practice that could be ac- tively supported by a PES scheme for carbon sequestration (Lal, 2001). It involves growing crops that are resilient to drought and promotes the biological functioning of the soils (moisture reten- tion, fertility, erosion prevention, etc.). The biggest challenge in setting up conservation agriculture-related PES schemes is the time lag and resources required for farmers to convert to a different form of cultivation. More re- search is needed to understand what kinds of reward mechanisms would ensure that the capital goods required are provided to farmers. Finally, the development of PES schemes in dry- lands requires tenure reforms, enabling policy, institutional and legal environ- ment as well as involvement of a diverse array of actors. (BHIM ADHIKARI is an environmental social scientist with expertise on environ- mental economics, institutional analysis, climate change adaptation and commu- nity-based natural resource management. He is working with United Nations Uni- versity- the Institute for Water, Environ- ment and Health (UNU-INWEH), the United Nations think tank on water. The views expressed in the article are personal and do not reect the ofcial policy or position of the organisation.) I S O L A T I N G I N C O M E S DESERTED 18 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K DESERTED P O L I C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 19 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M Government policies to combat soil degradation has failed miserably as they never adopted a holistic approach GOPIKRISHNA SR Specialist in Agricultural Communications and Policy, Greenpeace India E ven with increasing awareness about natural resources degra- dation and its impact on liveli- hoods, we often take our soils for granted. We refer to it as a non- living entity and a medium for plant growth, and tend to forget that its a living ecosystem that supports mil- lions of life forms. Moreover, our food security is highly dependent on life in soils. Soil is a major reserve of planets genetic biodiversity. However, only a fraction of life forms in soils can be seen through naked eyes and most of it can only be seen through microscopes. Studies show that a gram of soil can contain as many as 10,000 different species. These life forms play a critical role in helping soils to function prop- FOOD SECURITY AND LIFE IN SOILS lenges are scattered and are miniscule. The policies never adopted a holistic approach and hence they failed in ad- dressing the crisis effectively. On the other hand, the mindless support for chemical fertilizers continued jeopard- ising the soil ecosystem. In this context, it is to be understood that the quality of soil is rather dy- namic and is controlled by chemical, physical, and biological components of soil and their interactions. Physical and chemical properties are shaped by biological activity which in turn is en- hanced or limited by chemical and physical condition. Hence, manage- ment strategies that optimize multiple soil functions have a greater potential for improving soil-health than man- agement strategies that focus on a single function. Soil organic matter, the lifeline of soil, can be built up in soil through eco- logical fertilization practices only. Eco- logical fertilization practices that bring in holistic improvement in soil health include reduced tillage, crop residue recycling, green manuring, farm yard manure application, compost applica- tion, biofertiliser and liquid manure application, soil surface mulching, poly cropping with inclusion of legumes in cropping sequence and integration of trees (modied alley cropping) on cropped lands etc. All these agro-eco- logical practices and several others on their own or in combinations have been reported to improve soil quality, restore life in soils and increase crop yield. Ecological fertilization is neglected citing reasons such as non-availability of biomass and high labour costs associ- ated with such practices. A limiting factor is that few resources have been invested thus far in evaluating species, in improving cultural practices, and in devising appropriate implements for growing and harnessing plant bio-mass. Even though there were no coordinated strategies developed to generate bio- mass, there were studies by scientists which showed that sufcient biomass can be generated through a combina- tion of practices at the farm level itself. Livestock being a critical source of manure needs to be promoted as an integral component of the farm. It is true that many practices associated with ecological fertilization are cur- rently labour-intensive. But little thought has gone into developing this labour intensive nature of ecological fertilization as an opportunity to gener- ate rural employment opportunities. Conicting use of whatever little bio- mass available in farms is another concern. Biomass such as dried cow- dung cakes, pressed leaf litter etc are used as cooking fuels. It is also used in energy production. Hence the Govern- ment needs to consider all these vari- ous factors and come up with a compre- hensive biomass strategy if it has to restore life in soils and sustain agricul- tural production. This is vital for ensur- ing food security of the country. There is also need for policies that will restrict indiscriminate use of chemicals in Ag- riculture. The time to act is now. (GOPIKRISHNA SR is a specialist in Agricultural Communications and policy. He campaigns for a sustainable future in Agriculture. He is currently associated with Greenpeace India The views expressed in the article are per- sonal and do not reect the ofcial policy or position of the organisation.) chemical fertilizers (catalyzed by the Central Governments liberal subsidy policy over several decades) and pesti- cides along with intensive monocrop- ping has led to degradation of the soil. Indicators of good soil quality like mi- crobial biomass, enzymatic activity and water holding capacity are all drasti- cally reduced under chemical intensive agricultural practices. ORGANIC MATTER LIFELINE OF SOILS The organic matter in soil comes from biological sources. In a natural ecosys- tem, leaf litter, woody materials, dead bodies of living organisms etc accumu- lates in the soil, which in turn gets acted upon by microbes in the soils and gets decayed to a point at which it is no longer recognizable. Then it is called soil organic matter. Organic materials act as food and shelter for microbes in the soil. Soil organic matter plays a key role in soil-function, determining soil- quality, water-holding capacity and susceptibility of soil to degradation. In addition, soil organic matter also serve as a source or sink to atmospheric CO2 and also acts as a source of nutrients for plant growth. Hence, organic matter is considered as lifeline of soils. In traditional agriculture, farmers used to adopt lot of agro-ecological practices which helped in supplying the much needed organic matter. However with the advent of chemical intensive agriculture, policy makers, extension systems and farmers neglected eco- logical/organic fertilization. This has led to drastic reduction on soil organic matter content, which in turn added to the decline of life forms and degrada- tion of soil ecosystem. PRESENT CHALLENGES AND THE WAY FORWARD After recognizing the threat posed by the degradation of soils, the Govern- ment has come out with several policies in the past with an intention to tackle the crisis. However the crisis still per- sists and is getting even worse. This is mainly because the Government sup- port systems for addressing these chal- GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO COME UP WITH A COMPREHENSIVE BIOMASS STRATEGY IN ORDER TO RESTORE LIFE IN SOILS AND PREVENT DEGRADATION erly. Functions of soil include sustain- ing biological productivity, regulating water ow, storing and cycling nutri- ents, ltering, buffering, and trans- forming organic and inorganic materi- als. Health of soil is dependent on its chemical, physical, and biological com- ponents and their interactions. Most of the living organisms in the soil are agriculturally benecial. All have important roles in maintaining soil health and sustaining agricultural production. But interestingly, while much attention and investments in ag- ricultural research has been made on harmful ones and controlling them with agro-chemicals there is hardly any fo- cus on conserving the benecial living organisms in the soil. Moreover, indiscriminate use of 20 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K DESERTED M E D I A M A T T E R S 21 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M How media can mitigate the threat of desertication as an enabler, public sphere, informer or as a platform for debate and discussions and above all as a watchdog I t is no longer news in Nigeria that the Sahara Desert is moving southwards at a rate of 0.6 km per year. What is news is that about 35 million people in northern Nigeria are suffering from the effects of de- sertication. And the menace is pos- ing a serious threat to the nations economy, food security and employ- ment. Desertication is a global prob- lem which is one of the prime factors of food crisis in many developing and poor countries. DESERTIFICATION It is important to keep in the mind the distinction between deserts as a spe- cic ecosystem and desertication as a specic process. Deserts are beguiling DESERTIFICATION AND FOOD CRISIS IN INDIA MRINAL CHATTERJEE Teacher, Author and Media Trainer in India and nature made: Atacama in Chile, the Sonora in Mexico, the Sahara in Africa, the Thar in India. Desertica- tion on the other hand, is the rapid, human-induced creation of deserts the sudden, accelerated conversion of arid or semi-arid land, usually by over- grazing, deforestation, over-extraction of groundwater, drought, over-planting, or some nasty combination of the ve. The worlds great deserts were formed by natural processes interact- ing over long intervals of time. During most of these times, deserts have grown and shrunk independent of hu- man activities. Desertication has played a signicant role in human his- tory, contributing to the collapse of several large empires, such as Carthage, Greece, and the Roman Empire, as well as causing displacement of local populations. However, with time deser- tication has assumed more impor- tance because of two factors: a. with increase in population demand for food has increased, and b. human ac- tivities impacting land degradation have increased. HOW DOES IT AFFECT? Willem Van Cotthem, Honorary Pro- fessor of Botany, University of Ghent (Belgium) writes in his blog, The world is seeing a food, energy, climate and credit crisis, each having repercussions on every sphere of human activity. falls in the dry subhumid region. All put together, about 228 mha area, i.e. 69% of the geographic area of the country is dry land (arid, semiarid and dry subhumid). In India, the total area under deser- tication is 81.45 mha. Water erosion (26.21 mha), wind erosion (17.77 mha), vegetal degradation (17.63 mha) and frost shattering (9.47 mha) are the ma- jor processes of desertication. Nearly one third of the countrys land area (32.07%) is undergoing processes of land degradation. There are about eight major processes of land degradation active in the coun- try. Water erosion is the most pro- nounced process, followed by vegetal degradation and eolian processes. Total area under land degradation is 105.48 mha. Area-wise Rajasthan, J&K, Gujarat and Maharashtra have high propor- tions of land undergoing degradation. 81.45 mha land area of the country is undergoing the process of desertication. WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE CAUSES? The causes of desertication could be both natural and/or man made. Major causes for desertication are: change in frequency and amount of rainfall, reduction in vegetal cover, wrong agricultural management prac- tices, cultivation on marginal lands, over-exploitation of the natural resources, excessive grazing, etc. Often it falls into the trap of the vicious circle: reduction of vegetal cover triggers desertication, it forces people inhabiting the area to exploit vegetal cover of a larger area thus ag- gravating desertication. ITS IMPACT ON FOOD PRODUC- TION AND FOOD INSECURITY Desertication reduces the natural po- tential of the ecosystems and has a di- rect impact on people in terms of vul- nerability to food shortages and natural disasters, depletion of natural resources and deterioration of the environment. Continuing desertication could have a far-reaching environmental, social and economic impact, which could trigger Land degradation will add to the ad- verse impact of each of these prob- lems. Land degradation, in fact, in several parts of the world is triggering the crisis, especially in countries with vast drylands. Drylands occupy approximately 40- 41% of Earths land area and are home to more than two billion people. It has been estimated that some 10-20% of drylands are already degraded, the total area affected by desertication being between 6-12 million square kilometers. It is also estimated that about 1-6% of the inhabitants of dry- lands live in desertied areas, and a billion people are under threat from further desertication that is rough- ly 20 per cent more than the total population of European continent.
DESERTIFICATION IN INDIA India occupies only 2.4% of the worlds geographical area, yet supports about 16.7% of the worlds human popula- tion; it has only 0.5% of the worlds grazing land but supports 18% of the worlds cattle population. Thus there is tremendous pressure on our land- based natural resources. India is endowed with a variety of soils, climate, biodiversity and eco- logical regions. About 50.8 mha land area (15.8% of the countrys geographi- cal area) is arid, 123.4 mha (37.6%) is semi-arid and 54.1 mha (16.5%) area WHAT MEDIA CAN DO? P H O T O : M U K U N D A D E 22 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K DESERTED M E D I A M A T T E R S 23 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M and/or add food insecurity. WHAT COULD BE DONE? Combating desertication is key to tackling global food crisis. There are several ways to combat and contain desertication. Vegetation plays an essential role in protecting the soil, especially trees and shrubs, because their long life and ca- pacity to develop powerful root systems assure protection against soil erosion. Their disappearance can considerably increase the vulnerability of the land to turn into a wasteland. However, the silver lining is: a number of diversied farming systems have been evolved for low-rainfall areas, which include agro-forestry, agri-horticulture and agri-silvi-pas- ture, to sustain livelihood during crop failure and to maintain livestock dur- ing drought. Desertication gives rise to socio- economic problems. Therefore policy interventions and socio-economic measures also need to be taken. A strategy to combat desertication could be like: Develop the Natural Resource Conservation of land, water and perennial biomass Treatment of problem lands Expand horticulture, forestry and agroforestry Develop need-based NRM related infrastructure Management of Developed NR Formal allocation of user rights System of management of assets created (e.g. user charges) Sustainable use of developed NR (e.g. social regulation) Non-farm Livelihoods Diversication and link to markets Upscaling of successes Focus on productivity enhancement Support to Self-Help Groups WHAT IS BEING DONE? Government of India has framed several policies and started a number of programmes to counter desertication and its fall outs. Some of them include: National Environmental Policy 2006, which said . while conser- vation of environmental resources is necessary to secure livelihoods and well-being of all, the most se- cure basis for conservation is to en- sure that people dependent on par- ticular resources obtain better livelihoods from the fact of conser- vation, than from degradation of the resource. It also emphasized on undertaking measures that were- consistent with the local sociocul- tural practices and combines traditional and modern science based knowledge. National Policy for Farmers 2007, which attempted to address declin- ing agricultural growth and prot- ability and increase off-farm em- ployment opportunities to create demand for farm products and to increase farmers resilience National Rainfed Area Authority (2007) attempted convergence of programmes and institutions National Policy on Voluntary Sector 2007 envisaged Joint Consultation, Collaboration and Capacity Build- ing of voluntary organizations. National Rural Employment Guar- antee Act 2005, which aimed to en- hance livelihood security by provid- ing 100 days of unskilled wage employment per year for one mem- ber of willing household. It came into effect, on a pilot basis, in Febru- ary 2006 in 200 economically disad- vantaged districts of the country. In the second phase of implementation, it was extended to 130 additional districts and the remaining districts were covered in the third phase on April 1, 2008. About one third of the persons days of work created was earmarked for work related to com- bating desertication National Rehabilitation and Reset- tlement Policy 2007 attempted to minimize displacement, promote alternatives and undertake time bound and adequate rehabilitation Bharat Nirman Yojana ( 2005-2009), a time bound plan for rural infra- structure (electricity, all weather roads, telephone and additional irri- gation capacity) National Food Security Mission 2007 aimed to Increase productivity of rice, wheat and pulse through area expansion (except rice) and productivity enhancement in sus- tainable manner. It also aimed to restore soil fertility and productivity at individual farmlevel and Enhance farm prots to restore condence of farmers of targeted districts. National Agriculture Development Scheme 2007 provided incentives to States for increasing investments in agriculture sector. It provided local exibility and autonomy in planning for development of agriculture and allied sectors As can be seen there has been no death of plans and schemes. The challenge; however is to take those systems to elds and actually operationalising them. Media can help here. HOW CAN MEDIA HELP? Media can play ve roles in mitigating the situation. There can be considera- ble overlapping in the roles. Media as an Enabler: Media increases peoples access to information. Infor- mation makes them appreciate the problem. It gives people power to face the challenges. Media as a Public Sphere: People can air and share their ideas through mass media. Issues can be discussed. Sug- gestions for solutions of problems can be aired and discussed. For example, media can help discuss the suggestions M S Swaminathan offered to mitigate hunger and ensuring food security in the Food Security Atlas. Socially responsible journalism is a struggle to gain public space within the private sphere. Media as an Informer: Media can in- form people about various problems of society, and what causes them, and what is being done or not done about them. This helps x accountability. It can also inform people about opportu- nities and how to avail them. Media as a Platform: Media can pro- vide a platform, where people can air their grievances, put forth their views, and participate in schemes to mitigate their problems. Media as a Watchdog: It is said that sunshine is the best disinfectant. That somebody is watching me is the best deterrent to lot of social maladies like corruption. Media can play the watch dog role to ensure that the government schemes function properly and corrup- tion is contained. Desertication is too big and urgent a problem to be taken lightly. As the executive secretary of United Nations Conference on Environment and De- velopment (UNCED), better known as the Rio Conference. Luc Gnacadja, had said If we cannot nd a solution to this problem ... in 2025, close to 70 percent [of the planets soil] could be affected, Gnacadja said. There will not be global security without food security. Now with a billion people under threat from further desertica- tion- the threat is staring at our face. We better act fast. (DR. MRINAL CHATTERJEE is a distin- guished teacher, author and media trainer in India. He has worked in almost all me- dia with lan. He is a very popular column- ist in Orissa. His columns appear in several newspapers and periodicals in Orissa. The views expressed in the article are per- sonal and do not reect the ofcial policy or position of the organisation.) 24 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K DESERTED 25 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M A S I A N A R M A G E D D O N Changing weather patterns are accelerating and intensifying the desertication process which could result in forced migration and conicts STRANDED ON DRYLAND FUTURE OF SOUTH ASIA T he growing threat of desertication and land degradation in South Asia will have long-term impacts on the enormous population that calls the region home. Desertication re- ceived global attention after severe droughts in the Sahel region in Africa between 1968 and 1973 that caused famine and dislocation on a massive scale. Since then, several international efforts have tackled desertication, leading to the adoption of the United Nations Conven- tion to Combat Desertication (UNCCD) in 1994. Under the Convention, deserti- cation is dened as, land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from multiple factors, including climatic variations and human activities. Changing weather patterns, in addition to unsustainable development practices, are accelerating and intensifying the deserti- cation process and could result in forced migration and conicts. STATUS OF DESERTIFICATION The spread of land degradation and deser- tication is no longer limited to the arid regions of a country. Increasingly, more cultivable land is being affected or is at risk of land degradation and desertication, causing severe distress to the agrarian population. Between 25 percent and 32 percent of Indias total geographical area is affected by some form of desertication and land degradation respectively. Addi- tionally, degradation of drylands, which accounts for roughly 69 percent of the countrys land area, could have severe implications on the livelihood and food security of millions, especially the poor. States such as Rajasthan, Kashmir, Gu- jarat and Maharashtra are prone to deser- tication at present. Similarly, Bangladesh and Nepal are threatened by desertication, though both countries have abundant water re- sources. Around 43 percent of Bangla- deshs total geographical area is subjected to various forms of land degradation. Land degradation is more pronounced in the North Western region of the country, which includes densely populated areas such as Rajshahi, Pabna, Bogra and other adjoining areas. In Nepal, around a third of the total area in the Himalayan region has little to no vegetation, making it a threatened ecosystem, which demon- strates the characteristics of cold desert. It has been estimated that approximately 10,000 hectares of highland areas in the Western part of Nepal are slowly showing signs of desertication. SHIFTS IN CLIMATE The South Asian region is extremely sus- ceptible to drought, variability in mon- soons, oods and other extreme weather events. Thus, cultivation of land and water availability, are extremely vulnerable to climatic shifts, especially in the densely populated areas of the region. Soil erosion due to water and wind erosion has resulted in large tracts of land being classied as semi-arid to arid in the region. In India, soil erosion contributes to over 71 percent of the land degradation. Wind erosion, which is more dominant in the Western region of India, has led to loss of topsoil, resulting in degradation of over 5 percent of total geographical area of the country. The most prevalent form of degrada- tion in South Asia is caused by water and occurs widely in all agro climatic zones of the region. According to Nepals National Action Programme on Land Degradation and Desertication, erosion due to water was responsible for 50 percent of deserti- cation across the country in 2004. During the monsoon season, large areas along river banks erode, creating acute socio- economic problems. Between 1973 and 1996, approximately 70,000 hectares of land along the banks of the Brahmaputra- Jamuna were lost to erosion in Bangla- SOWMYA SURYANARAYANAN Research Analyst, Strategic Foresight Group 26 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K DESERTED 27 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M A S I A N A R M A G E D D O N desh. The process of soil erosion due to water is likely to intensify over the next few decades, as the impacts of climate change become increasingly intense and visible. Conversely, scarce water resources trig- gered by scanty rainfall and high evapora- tion in dryland areas of the region increase stress on land due to the rising demand for agriculture and fodder production for livestock. In addition, the problem of sa- linity has also resulted in degradation of fertile land. Roughly 6.73 million hectares of land area is affected by salinity in India. Around 3080 percent of groundwater in North Western states of the country is ei- ther saline or brackish and is unt for ir- rigation. Large scale cultivation of prawns using sea water in the coastal belts of India and Bangladesh has also degraded water and land resources. In Bangladesh, the groundwater table uctuates between 8.95m to 18.56m during the dry season due to over-extraction of water, resulting in acute water shortages. ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS Anthropogenic causes include expansion of agricultural activities and unsustainable agricultural practices such as intensive cultivation, use of pesticides, poor irriga- tion practices, and overgrazing. Given that the regions primary occupations include agriculture and animal husbandry, intense pressure on the land has caused land deg- radation and desertication. India has livestock population of about 485 million, burdening the limited land resources for fodder. More importantly, the growing population pressure on land, expanding urban areas and poor resource manage- ment have resulted in land degradation. In Bangladesh, mining of sand from sev- eral agricultural lands for construction purposes, such as from the Northern Pied- mont areas and greater Dinajpur and Rangpur districts, has increased the area of fallow lands. Land degradation in India, Bangladesh and Nepal has been exacerbated by the expansion of rain-fed cultivation onto marginal lands, deforestation, overgraz- ing, groundwater extraction and uncon- trolled harvesting of biomass. Moreover, deforestation in the Terai region in Nepal, in an effort to bring more land under cul- tivation, has increased the rate of erosion. Between 1990 and 2000, Nepal has lost an average of 917 sq. km of forest per year. This constitutes a vicious cycle linking deteriorating natural resources to deterio- rating livelihoods as people need to en- croach further on fragile soils, sparse vegetation and limited water resources to meet their basic needs. FOOD SECURITY As harmful climatic processes such as er- ratic monsoons and droughts occur more often in the future, the South Asian region is likely to face considerable food security challenges. Recurring droughts and con- tinued desertication will hamper agricul- tural production in the region as fertile tracts of land become unproductive. Loss of cultivable land will result in reduction of the vegetation cover and could eventu- ally alter the livestock population of the region. The 1999 drought in India dis- tressed the lives of nearly 100 million people and 60 million livestock mostly in the states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. The overall loss in food grain production in the coun- try was 15 percent, while states such as Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh incurred a loss of 10-30 percent in food grain pro- duction. Continuous desertication and land degradation in the region could result in loss of livelihood and exacerbate pov- erty levels in the future. Approximately, 75 percent of Nepals total workforce and over 50 percent of India and Bangladeshs workforce are engaged in the farm sector. Estimates sug- gest that the ratio of cultivable land to the population i.e. amount of acre held by a person, is decreasing at a rapid pace in the region. The land-man ratio in the North Western parts of Bangladesh has de- creased signicantly to 23.2 percent as compared to the ratio of 17.2 percent in the whole country, primarily due to deser- tication. Moreover, it has been calculated that the loss of crops due to reduced pro- duction in drought prone lands and the cost incurred as a result of additional ag- ricultural input to maintain soil nutrients exceeds two billion USD every year in Bangladesh. The process of land degrada- tion and desertication further adds to the social costs through displacement of hu- man settlements and causing famine-like conditions. Meanwhile, droughts across Nepal, arising from the long dry spells during winter, are likely to aggravate de- sertication in the next two decades. The land degradation, especially in the at lands of the country, is worsening due to sand deposition as large rivers in Nepal change their course. The Koshi River has destroyed approximately 1300 square kilo- metres of land through sand deposition. In addition, many watersheds in the coun- try are threatened by desertication as a result of physical and biological factors, with reports suggesting that 0.4 percent, 1.5 percent and 11.7 percent of the water- sheds are in very poor, poor and fair con- dition respectively. All these factors will threaten the food security of the country in the coming years. MIGRATION Desertication coupled with water and food scarcity will lead to forced displace- ment and migration of millions of people in the region. Nepal, India and Bangla- desh are not only geographically con- nected but also share important rivers such as the Ganges and Brahmaputra; therefore, the impacts of desertication in one country are likely to spill over to other countries in the future. As a result, there could be a rise in conicts in the region, especially over resources. While it is difcult to quantify the pre- cise impact of desertication in these countries, it is apparent that desertica- tion will lead to loss of food grain produc- tion and livelihood opportunities. Degra- dation of the land, as in the Terai region in Nepal, will reduce economic opportu- nities for people a trend which could become increasingly prevalent in the fu- ture, forcing people to migrate. Research studies reveal that seasonal migration is an important livelihood strategy, espe- cially among the poor in the region. In the North Western region of Bangladesh, while around 19 percent of households across all wealth groups migrate during the lean agricultural season, about 25 percent of chronically poor households migrate during the same period. This region of Bangladesh will further witness an increasing propensity for droughts and as rainfall becomes more unpredictable and groundwater levels decline, people will be forced to migrate in order to se- cure their livelihoods. Given that more than half of Indias cropped area is still dependent on the monsoon rains and agriculture supports half of Indias working population, the resultant impact of variable precipitation and droughts could see rural farmers from the Northern agricultural areas moving away to other parts of the country. West- ern Rajasthan, which is highly prone to droughts and land degradation, has wit- nessed large scale migration of people towards other states such as Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh in search of food, livelihood and water. Regular occurrences of such scenarios are likely to lead to the rise in permanent displacement of environmental migrants, as they seek greater economic and social security. In the next decade or two, deser- tication-induced migration not only will lead to large inux of rural population to urban areas but will also lead to an in- creased and sustained movement of people across borders. This will prompt a wide range of security issues for the South Asia region. THE WAY FORWARD Thus far the approach to deal with prob- lems resulting from droughts and deserti- cation has been to provide relief meas- ures to the affected people and nance for livestock. The governments in the South Asian region have largely invested in im- proving the situation through the devel- opment of irrigation facilities, which has further depleted the water resources in the region. As climate change increases the frequency of droughts and erratic rainfall, the impact on the land will con- tinue to be felt, thus offsetting the govern- ments intervention. In order to combat desertication in the South Asian region, the focus should be to implement long-term measures for soil conservation, afforestation and reforesta- tion, protection and sustainable use of ecological areas. In addition, preservation of grasslands and development of sustain- able agricultural practices will denitely help in combating desertication in the region. Implementation of long-term measures in an integrated manner, aimed at preventing degradation of land and improving productivity of land through rehabilitation, conservation and sustain- able management of land and water re- sources should seek participation at the community level. This, in concert with inter-regional cooperation between the countries in the South Asian region, will help tackle the problem resulting from recurrent droughts and continued deser- tication in the region. (SOWMYA SURYANARAYANAN is the Research Analyst and Project Coordinator of the Horizons Scanning Unit (Asia) at Strategic Foresight Group. She works on development issues and analyses the long- term impacts of emerging trends on poor communities in the South Asian region. Sowmya was also a key researcher of SFGs publications on water security - The Himalayan Challenge: Water Secu- rity in Emerging Asia and Himalayan Solutions: Co-operation and Security in River Basins. The views expressed in the article are per- sonal and do not reect the ofcial policy or position of the organisation.) 28 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K 29 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M G L O B A L C O N S E N S U S DJ VU DROUGHT TRAGEDIES? LUC GNACADJA Executive Secretary, UNCCD T he crisis that hit eastern Africa has affected at least 12 million people. This is about the entire population of Senegal of Cam- bodia or Cuba. It is the worst drought in this region since 1950-51, according to the Famine Early Warning System Network, an initiative funded by the US Agency for International Develop- ment. Last year, Niger suffered a simi- lar fate. Now, as then, the upshot is malnutrition, food insecurity and forced mass migration. So the United Nations and other aid agencies nd themselves going cup in hand in search of food and any other humanitarian assistance to put a feeble band-aid on a structural problem. The situation harks back to earlier droughts in the Sahel in the 1970s and in Ethiopia in the 1980s. But these most recent droughts are even more disturbing for at least three reasons. Firstly, as in the past, the victims are not the primary cause of the situation. They just happen to be both poor and on the frontline of climate change. Traditional coping mechanisms simply cannot respond. Secondly, droughts do not happen overnight. They are pre- dictable, and for a decade, scientists have warned we need to act now to avert further disaster in drought prone communities. Thirdly, it was in re- sponse to the past drought tragedies that the international community, in 1994, established the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertication and Mitigate the Effects of Drought in those Countries Experiencing Serious Drought and/or Desertication, Par- ticularly in Africa (UNCCD). This Treaty was a guarantee to the govern- ments and communities living in the drought-prone areas of the world that never again would they have to suffer the horric effects of such droughts on a tragic scale. BUT HERE WE ARE AGAIN; WHY? The impacts of drought are known and include food insecurity and hunger, loss of livelihoods, conict, mass migration and wild res. If large-scale loss of life is to be avoided, adaptation strategies must be implemented. For this, effec- tive early warning systems and mecha- nisms to support the vulnerable com- munities with practical help and appropriate technology are indispensa- ble. A stable government is a prerequi- site for successful implementation of policies and strategies, especially in seeking long-term solutions. To aid planning, the Conventions negotiators through the regional imple- mentation annexes mandated the UNCCD, 16 years ago, to support the establishment of early warning systems tied to food security. Countries have made slow progress citing a lack of re- sources. For instance, only one country in East Africa has a monitoring system in place. Three others are planned. Not surprisingly then, the debate on early warning systems and enhancing access to practical technology to strengthen the adaptation and resilience of the countries and populations most vulner- able to droughts, exacerbated by cli- mate-change, has resurfaced. Fortunately, the General Assembly of the United Nations has agreed to convene a one-day meeting at the level of heads of state and government on September 20, 2011 in New York to address desertication, land degrada- tion and drought in the context of poverty eradication and sustainable development. East Africa needs criti- cal and urgent humanitarian assist- ance now, but we would all benet from ensuring the cycle of drought and famine disaster are mitigated once and for all. Recent droughts in Australia, Russia, the United States, Southern Europe and Mexico show this is not an issue conned to the so-called devel- oping world and there are global ben- ets to be accrued from common, de- cisive and concerted action. Will politicians meeting in New York rec- ognize that and show the necessary solidarity and political will to take decisive action? (MR. LUC GNACADJA is the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Conven- tion to Combat Desertication, the UNs top advisor on drought and desertica- tion. Before taking up his position as UNCCD Executive Secretary, Mr. Gnac- adja served as Minister of Environment, Housing and Urban Development of Benin from 1999 to 2005. He gained rst- hand knowledge of the UNCCD process over a number of years in his capacity as Head of Delegation to the Conference of the Parties to the UNCCD. In March 2003 Mr. Gnacadja was honoured with the 2002 Green Award in Washington by the World Bank. The views expressed in the article are personal and do not reect the ofcial policy or position of the organisation.) UNCCD is trying to bring concensus between the developed and developing nations on conicting drought prevention strategies IS THERE POLITICAL WILL TO END THESE DESERTED Whenever any radical modication in the international foods trading system contradicts the interest of theEU Five they derail negotiations by moving the focus of the talks C H A N G I N G T R A C K S 31 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M 30 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K THE G-20 AGRICULTURE TALKS TRAP T he G-7 founding states currently struggle to preserve their inuence in international eco- nomic affairs as well as the very legitimacy of the G-system. Accordingly, the G-20 needs to address issues important to the rising economic powers. Recently, they even admitted this to the fo- rum, yet was neglected elsewhere. Notably, agriculture ought to be tackled more fairly than what has been the case thus far at the WTO. Otherwise, the Euro-Amer- ican voice will be marginalised, at best only in agricul- ture. The inclusion of agriculture in the G-20 agenda seemed logical and desirable, but the joy may well have been premature. The fact that the G-20 agriculture ministers discuss the necessity of striking down food-export restrictions, rather than import agriculture subsidies and biofuels is a diplomatic success of states interested in preserv- ing the current system. At the same time, agriculture thus became part of a broader debate. Even though the G-20s agenda does not constitute a single package, to some extent similarly to the WTO formula of noth- ing is agreed until all is agreed, states obtain conces- sions in areas important to them for the price of simi- lar contributions in other matters. What seems particular to those talks, however, is that the nancial agenda, which is discussed the most, is very technical in nature and so expert negotiations prevail over po- litical considerations. As there is general consent at the expert level as to the goals and means of ghting nancial instability a consensus is relatively easy to forge. That is not the case as regards to agriculture MERCIN MENKES Analyst, Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), Poland DESERTED 32 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K 33 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M however. The risks of putting agriculture on the table are two-fold: the fate of agriculture talks themselves, but also the prospects of greater nancial stability. G-20 NET FORCE As the G-20 statements are not legally binding, any declaration, for it to be implemented, requires the consent of all. A failure would undermine the exist- ence of the forum. The process may appear as a trade-off between a leader in each particular case and others, who remain supportively-neutral. Also the EU ve (the European Union and its four G-20 member states) may be a driving power behind the ne- gotiations. In that case, the political situ- ation becomes even more complicated, given that a considerable part of the G-20 negotiation agenda falls under the EUs powers. Where G-20 talks precede the EU law-making procedure, actors may be tempted to thus indirectly inu- ence its outcomes. In that case, the number of parties potentially interested in the subject-matter rises dramatically. It may occur that with numerous con- icting interests a relatively small interest group may have a decisive inu- ence on the nal position. If four re- maining EU actors go along, a small lobby may obtain leverage at the inter- national level, which may entail consid- erable risks to others. The functioning of such a mechanism may be observed regarding nancial su- pervisory and regulatory harmonisation reform. Starting from the very bottom, in many EU states nancial supervision institutions, although not directly, con- tested the establishment of the EU-mi- cronancial supervision, as it would re- strain their powers. This was especially the case, in smaller states (the so-called host states to nancial institutions regis- tered abroad), which were afraid of losing grounds to home state supervisors and regulators. On the contrary, central banks supported another leg of the nan- cial reform the establishment of an European institution for systematic risk monitoring. Not only the body per se was deemed necessary, but also the majority of states had not established an institu- tional framework to carry out such tasks domestically. Given that the European institution would build upon country reports, the creation of respective na- tional bodies seemed a matter of time, whereas their placement within central banks appeared most natural. Therefore central banks potentially faced an exten- sion of powers and adequate raising of funds. With the nancial supervisor sceptical about the reform programme, central banks supportive and ministries of nance rather indifferent (as in a ma- jority of states they do not directly supervise nancial institutions), the net force at the domestic level was neutral. Whereas from the perspective of the parties con- cerned the reform is of utter importance, heads of governments, without clear signal from the administration, were in- clined to adopt a supportive-neutral position, this way strengthening their own EU statesman image. The EU only beneted from the establishment of new agencies, while France and Germany (the major nancial supervision home states) were generally supportive of the idea. Accordingly, at the G-20 plane ve votes opted for enhancement of nancial su- pervision; back at the EU level this translated into creation of an extensive European nancial supervision frame- work, despite opposition by the majority of domestic supervisors. THE AGRICULTURE BARGAIN Socially equitable results may be reached through negotiations, as they require concessions of all the major interest groups. The most imminent risk of such system is its degeneration into a tyranny of the majority, where claims of minor groups remain unan- swered. The case of agriculture reects the opposite risk however. In deconstructing political discourse again down to the electorate level, agrar- ian lobbies can be easily spotted. Para- doxically, even though Europe witnesses a continuous urbanization, the political muscle of these groups, heavily subsi- dised and increasingly consolidated, re- mains strong. Yet, since their political agenda focuses on technical issues, agrarian parties are capable of making alliances with both left and right group- ings (for instance in Poland agrarian par- ties have belonged to 11 out of the 15 cabinets since 1989, both with post-com- munists and the former democratic op- position alike, and they even held the Prime Minister post twice). In turn there is no obvious opposite interest that would unite anti-agrarian voters. Accordingly, although some dis- approve certain agrarian claims, no po- litical party is willing to ght against a possible ally, whose political goals are not competitive. Even though the EU agricultural import barriers increase food prices considerably, while the value of subsidies is questionable both on hu- manitarian and scal-consolidation grounds, there is no sufcient grounds to challenge this policy. The outcomes of an EU agriculture debate, for instance on the resignation from canola oil currently an obligatory component of liquid fuels in Poland appear fore- gone. Agrarian interests in France are even stronger than the EU average. To- gether it is more than sufcient to set the tone for the EU ve. THE IMPACT ZONE The existing international foods trade system is unjust, inefcient and possibly unsustainable in the long run. Its radical modication contradicts, however, ma- jor interests in the EU ve (and the US). As the developing states claims cannot be simply ignored any longer, the most natural solution would be to derail negotiations by moving the focus of the talks, which appears to have just hap- pened at the rst G-20 agriculture min- isters summit. Such prospects of the G-20 agricul- tural agenda bother victims of the cur- rent food crisis primarily. For the consumers from states subsi- dising agriculture,the G-20 conclusions entail the risk of cementing the policy, which preserves the benets of a rela- tively small, privileged group. All that may well be an optimistic sce- nario. As the non-binding character of the G-20s conclusions requires a whole- hearted support of all participants regulations are adopted by consensus. This is relatively easy in the nancial eld, where all the parties share a convic- tion that nancial innovations must be curtailed, supervision should be en- hanced and greater international coop- eration is necessary. In agriculture, however, divisions relate to the very foundations of the international system, so similar negotiation results are unlikely. The failure to reach an agreement may imperil the continuation of the G-20. A self-contained change in Western politics is unlikely. However, victims of yet another food crisis cannot wait. De- veloping economies, who already suc- ceeded in the formal recognition of their international status, should prove their vision of and capacity to shape interna- tional economy, by reachingout directly to dispersed European consumers, pos- sibly acquiring this way a powerful lever- age on the nal G-20 talks. (DR. MERCIN MENKES is an Analyst at the Polish Institute of International Af- fairs (PISM). He is also a Lecturer of Economic Analysis of Environmental Law at the Warsaw School of Economics. He has written several articles on various international magazines and journals. The views expressed in the article are per- sonal and do not reect the ofcial policy or position of the organisation.) G-20 CONCLUSIONS ENTAIL THE RISK OF CEMENTING THE POLICY, WHICH PRESERVES THE BENEFITS OF A RELATIVELY SMALL, PRIVILEGED GROUP C H A N G I N G T R A C K S DESERTED 34 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K DESERTED F O O D F O R T H O U G H T 35 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M TOO MANY EMPTY BOWLS The curses of hunger is prevalent in India not only because of its vast population but also due to rampant wastage of food coupled with feeble government policies such as inefcient PDS system R. B. BHAGAT Professor and Head, Department of Migration and Urban Studies, Interna- tional Institute for Population Sciences T he historical World Food Sum- mit held in Rome in 1996 reaf- rmed the right of everyone to have access to safe and nutri- tious food. As a result, the right to food and freedom from hunger emerged as an important concern during the 1990s. Again, the Millennium Devel- opment Goals agreed by the world leaders in 2000 reiterated this commit- ment by pledging to halve the propor- tion of the population who suffer from hunger from 1990 to 2015 (United Na- tions 2008). Food security is the important means to realize the right to food. It means the access to the adequate food to all mem- bers of the household throughout the year. Access to food is determined by food entitlement. The Nobel Laureate, Amartya Sen has provided a framework of food entitlement in order to under- stand the access to food and genesis of hunger. According to him, own produc- tion, stored wealth, employment, kin- ship and government transfers are all possible sources of food entitlement (Sen 1981). Population and food are two closely related issues prominently found in the study of demography since its incep- tion. The First Essay on Population written by Robert Thomas Malthus in 1798 emphasized the inevitable imbal- ance between population growth and food supply which shaped much of the debate in the area of population and development relationship. The history of Indias demographic and agricul- tural growth shows that the thesis of Malthus is not true. The availability of food matched quite well with the re- quirement of growing population. However, in spite of sufcient availabil- ity of food, India is a country of the largest number of food insecure popu- lation. The paper shows that popula- tion growth of the country cannot be held accountable for the food insecu- rity in the country. In fact a paradox of food stock with the government co- exists with hunger and price rise. LEVEL OF HUNGER AND FOOD INSECURITY About one-fth of Indias population is hungry (Radhakrishna 2005). However the level of hunger estimated by Na- tional Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) by a direct question whether the household getting enough food every- day throughout the year was only 2.4 per cent in rural area and 0.5 per cent in urban areas as per 61st round conducted in 2004-05 (NSSO 2007). At combined level of rural and urban areas only two per cent of the household reported the incidence of hunger which works out to be 22 million suffering from hunger in 2004-05. This is highly an underestimate compared to the level of poverty and malnutrition in the country. 20 per cent of Indias population is undernourished with a per capita ac- cess to 1632 kcal only (Menon, Deola- likar and Bhaskar 2008). When seen against the norm of 2400 kcal in rural and 2100 kcal in urban areas, the pro- portion of population below the norm goes as high as 79.8 per cent in rural and 63.9 per cent in urban areas (total 75.8 per cent) in 2004-05 (Deaton and Dreze 2009). Poverty is the greatest barrier in the access to food. The population below poverty line indirectly is a true measure of the level of hunger. However, the poverty estimates are widely debated now. For example, the ofcial estimate provided by the Planning Commission mentions that the population below poverty line is 27.5 per cent in 2004-05, whereas Tendulkar Committee esti- mates Indias poverty level 37 per cent and the N.C. Saxena committee ap- pointed by Ministry of Rural Develop- ment estimated 50 per cent of Indias population living below poverty line (Planning Commission 2008 and 2009; Saxena 2009). Although ofcial poverty has declined from 54.9 per cent in 1973- 74 to 27.5 per cent in 2004-05, the number of poor has barely declined. The number of poor was 321 million in 1973-04 against 301 million in 2004-05 (Planning Commission 2008). Accord- ing to some leading researchers, there are about 800 million hungry people in the world out of which 225 million are in India (Swaminathan 2003; Rad- hakrishna 2005). This estimate is very close to the number of poor of 300 mil- lion estimated by the Planning Com- mission which has huge implication for Indias food security programmes at the household level. Hunger is the most acute form of food insecurity also manifested in the malnourishment of population that affects the growth of children severely. The period from birth to two years of age is important for op- timal growth, health and development. At this stage, children are not only vul- nerable to growth retardation but also prone to child illness such as diarrhea and acute respiratory infections. As a result malnutrition emerged as a sig- nicant cause of child mortality in India (74 deaths of children under age 5 per 1000 in 2005-06). The level of malnutri- tion was 45.9 per cent among children below three years of age and 56 per cent of women aged 15-49 were found anae- mic according to NFHS-3 in 2005-06 (International Institute for Population 36 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K DESERTED F O O D F O R T H O U G H T 37 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M Sciences and Macro International 2007). At state level malnutrition continues to be high even in the most food secure states like Punjab and Haryana where one-fourth and two-fth children are malnourished respectively and 52 chil- dren die before age 5. The level of anaemia among women aged 15-49 was 38 and 56 percent in the state of Punjab and Haryana respectively (Interna- tional Institute for Population Sciences and Macro International 2007). India has not only a very high level of hunger and malnutrition, but the recent studies also show declining calorie con- sumption among the poor both from cereal and non-cereal sources (Deaton and Dreze 2009). The cereal consump- tion among the poor is also declining constantly during the last two decades. It has been made clear by the Saxena Com- mittee that the declining cereal con- sumption and consequently the declining calorie intake among the poor is not the result of poor switching over to non-ce- real food but due to cut in their food budget in the event of rising essential expenditure on fuel, transport, and edu- cation of children, medicine and trans- port. It is clearly a distress phenomenon which shows the increasing food insecu- rity among Indias poor (Saxena 2009). PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM AND FOOD SECURITY Indias food security programme is heavily dependent on PDS which started way back in 1939 during colo- nial rule rst introduced in Bombay. The drought and food shortage after independence led to the strengthening of the PDS and was expanded as a universal scheme in the 1970s. The main objective of the PDS was to main- tain price stability and to eradicate hunger (Swaminathan 2003). The universal PDS was abolished in 1997 and a Targeted PDS was intro- duced in its place. The targeted PDS differed from earlier PDS requiring the entire population to be divided into BPL 2 (below poverty line) and APL (above poverty line) categories. A third group of the poorest of the poor under BPL category was also identied and covered under Antyodya Anna Yojana (AAY) since 2001. All three groups were treated differently in terms of the quantities of food provided and the prices at which food was supplied. There are many problems with Targeted PDS like inclusions and exclusions, but most importantly targeting has affected the functioning and economic viability of the PDS (Swaminathan 2004). Indias food security programme is basically a producer cum consumer subsidy programme. At producer level the Govt. of India ensures that produc- ers get the Minimum Support Price (MSP) which protects them from the vagaries of the market. Farmers have now opportunity to sell their surplus food grains to the government owned Food Corporation of India (FCI) in case of lack of opportunity to sell in the open market and protects them selling in the open market at lower price than the MSP. The minimum support price has seen a big jump from 2007-08. While during 2000-01 to 2006-07, the rise in MSP (excluding bonus) had been gradual, in 2008-09, the MSP in almost every crop had witnessed increases of about 30 per cent or more. Studies also show a close relationship between the MSP and the market prices of the food grain (Deshpande and Naika 2002). This has clearly fueled the price rise of the food grains in recent years (Minis- try of Finance 2009). The Central Government has emerged as the biggest buyer of food grains under the obligation of PDS. As a result there is enough piling of stock with FCI. In 2008-09, there was a record procurement of 54.2 million tones i.e. about one-fourth of the total production (233.8 million tonnes). On the other hand, total disbursement of food grain under PDS was 34.7 million tonnes i.e. 60 per cent the procurement in 2008-9 (Ministry of Finance 2010). Even during the year 2009-10 which was severely affected by drought reduc- ing the kharif production drastically, there was a record procurement of paddy (Ministry of Finance 2010:69). It would not be untrue to say that the FCIs godowns were bursting with food grains, getting rotten while the poor were dying of hunger (Swami- nathan 2004; The Asian Age, National Daily, 14th August, p. 10). The net ef- fect was articial shortage of food grain in the market, price rise and en- couragement of hoardings by the pri- vate traders.As such, even the Supreme Court directed the Central Govern- ment not to let the food grains rot but distribute the food freely to the mil- lions of hungry. Further, under PDS, the states and union territories are allocated food grains by the Central Government, but for many states like Bihar and Jharkhand the offtake is as low as 50 per cent. As a result, there is a large inter-regional variation in the access of food grain from PDS. In rural areas the per capita monthly purchases of cereals from PDS was lower than 0.5 kg in poor states of Bihar, MP, UP and Rajasthan compared to 5 kg in Kerala, 3.3 kg in Tamil Nadu and 2.3 Kg in AP (Radhakrishna 2005). Thus, the basic purpose of PDS to provide access to food to the poor and price control is defeated by the food procurement and disbursement policy of the Central Government. While procurement and disbursement of food grain is undertaken by the central gov- ernment, the public distribution of food is under the control of the state governments. There is a need to decen- tralize the procurement, storage and disbursement of food grain in country with a greater involvement of state governments. This will help removing the regional imbalances in food grain supply and provide opportunity to many farmers who are left out to take the benets of procurement policy which is mainly conned to the states of Punjab, Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh. Decentralization of food grain procurement and disbursement would also contain wastage in storage and reduce transportation costs. This requires partnership between the cen- tral and state government at each stage of food security right from availability of food grain through increased pro- ductivity, encouraging procurement at the state level so that farmers of each state has the chance of getting benet from MSP, promoting state specic storage, disbursement and manage- ment of food. A decentralized ap- proach should also promote the in- volvement of Panchayati Raj institutions in the food security pro- grammes. However, the framework of the proposed National Food Security Act drafted by the National Advisory Council did mention in passing about the decentralized approach to food security policy, but not as a fundamen- tal strategy of achieving food security. CONCLUSIONS Although food availability at the na- tional level is a necessary condition to eradicate hunger, it does not guarantee the food security at the household level. This is the paradox that India is facing. At the moment Indias food security policy is too centralized, heav- ily dependent on subsidies given to the farmers as well as consumers. It is also based on target oriented public distri- bution system for BPL and destitute households. The food security pro- grammes need to be decentralized both in procurement, disbursement and storage levels. At the moment, food grain is procured by the Central Government from few states mostly from Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh (from Western Uttar Pradesh mainly) which are allocated to the various state governments. There is a need that the farmers of other states are given equal opportunity of getting betted through the procurement policy. This will also promote state specic storage of food grain and re- duce wastage, save huge transporta- tion cost and deliver food grains on time during the time of food crisis. The autonomy to the state governments and involvement of Panchayati Raj institu- tions in the procurement, disbursement and management of food with central assistance is crucial for the future food security of the country. This is justied on the ground that the states show very diverse patterns in population, food grain production and in levels of hun- ger. However, states alone cannot do this, but the Central Government should enable the state governments by decentralizing the food security pro- grammes through budgetary provisions and nancial packages. The proposed framework of National Security Act is highly decient on this count which proposes nothing new but a differential coverage and targeting, a differential provision of food grains and a differ- ential pricing for the vulnerable groups. It continues to assume that food security is the sole responsibility of the Central Government which can be achieved through a centralized way targeting the needy. This has been the notion of the central government over the years ignoring the fundamental character of centre and state relations of the Indian Union. In fact govern- ance is the serious issue which failed the PDS and other centrally sponsored programmes in many states. This is high time that we must address the centrestate relation in food security programmes and promote decentrali- zation over centralization in view of the overriding importance of states in im- plementing the most of the develop- ment programmes including employ- ment generation, poverty eradication and food security. (DR R. B. BHAGAT is working as Pro- fessor and Head, Department of Migra- tion and Urban Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences. His research areas include migration, ur- banization and environment; Demogra- phy, ethnicity and politics. The views expressed in the article are per- sonal and do not reect the ofcial policy or position of the organisation.) FOOD SECURITY PROGRAMMES MUST BE DECENTRALIZED BOTH IN PROCUREMENT, DISBURSEMENT AND STORAGE LEVELS TO MAKE IT WORK 38 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K DESERTED 39 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M S T A T E O F A S T A T E AXING More vigilance and greater conservation efforts on the part of government are needed to counter the growing threat of deforestation PRABHA PANTH Professor of Economics, O.U. P.G. College, Secunderabad I ncreasing commercial use of forests has affected their ecological role, and deterioration of the ecological system will affect both the economy and the environment in the long run. It is there- fore necessary to achieve long-term conservation of forests to ensure their sustained availability for both ecological and economic requirements. Sustainable development of forests formed part of the discussions in the Forum for Forest Principles, UNCED at Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Sustainable forest management and ecosystem approach aim at promot- ing conservation and management prac- tices which are environmentally, socially and economically sustainable, and which generate and maintain benets for both present and future generations. Forest conservation, preservation, sustainability and management are terms that are generally used interchangeably as they are very closely connected to each other. Preservation is regarded as an ac- tivity of protecting something from loss or danger, while Conservation is dened as the preservation and careful manage- ment of the environment and of natural resources . Hence conservation refers to protection plus improvement in the resource base. Sustainability is the capac- ity of the system to endure or continue. It is the ability of a unit or a system to continue in existence under opposing or critical conditions. In Resource Economics it is achieved by equating growth of the renewable resource with its rate of exploitation, so as to keep total stock constant. CONSERVATION OF FORESTS Forest conservation can be interpreted as either increase, or at least maintaining the total area under forests, and under forest cover. The term sustainability has a different connotation in Natural Resource Economics. Here sustainabil- ity entails that the rate of exploitation of forests should equal the rate of its regen- eration (Tietenberg, 2004). However, it is difcult, if not impossible to measure both these variables. For sustainable development, the rate of exploitation of forests or rate of tree felling should be equated with tree growth. Data on tree felling is not accurate as there is a large amount of illegal felling of trees, which is not recorded (State of Forest Report, 2005). Forest area and cover may shrink due to developmental activities such as construction of roads, railways, dams, mining, etc., or forest land may be con- verted legally or illegally into agriculture land, settlements, and for other non for- est purposes. Studies have shown that these diversions are rarely recorded by the Forest Dept in its reports (Gulati and Sharma). As for forest regeneration, estimation of the success of reforestation pro- grammes is difcult and complex. It is not a simple case of equating the area reforested with the area degraded. This is because reforestation programmes may end up as plantations or monocul- ture or with invasive species, as hap- pened in the 80s with the ill fated euca- lyptus plantations. Again, although reforestation efforts replace trees, the replenishment of biodiversity loss from forests is rarely taken into account. It may not be possible to replenish the rich biodiversity of ora and fauna that had characterised the deforested area. Also, the area degraded may not be the area reforested, so that ecological degrada- tion may be going on in one area, while forest cover increases in another. Eco- logically speaking, they cannot cancel out each other. Another problem is with regard to the growth of seedlings not all will grow up to be fully developed trees, as they may wither away, or be looped and cut for rewood, or eaten by cattle. Even if they survived, it will take them a decade or more to achieve adult status. Yet another aspect to be kept in mind is that harvesting timber is a continuous proc- ess, and so should be matched with an equal number of seedlings planted every year. Plantations on degraded forest land do not increase the net for- est area, but only increase the tree density. Other problems include fake reporting of plantation to meet targets, and inability of satellite pictures to dis- cern young plantations. Therefore we use the more non con- troversial term conservation, which THE FORESTS 40 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K DESERTED 41 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M S T A T E O F A S T A T E refers to both maintenance and growth of forests. REASONS FOR LOSS OF FOREST COVER In spite of the various motivations for forest conservation, the AP forest dept has not been able to achieve its goals. The following reasons have been put forth for the fall in forest cover in AP. Population: Forests are under tremen- dous pressure due to about 20 million people being directly or indirectly de- pendent upon it for livelihood. Development Projects: Besides demands of development like irrigation projects, laying or improvement of the existing roads and power supply lines, mining of coal and minerals etc. puts additional pressure on the forests. Encroachments: It was reported that fresh attempts on encroachments had contributed to nearly 65% of the nega- tive changes. Plantations: Rest of the negative changes are attributed to preparation of forest lands for raising semi mechanical planta- tions and rotational felling of eucalyptus and other plantations. Diversion to other uses: Diversion of forests to other legal and illegal activi- ties is yet another reason for decrease in forest cover, though data for this is not available. Rotational Felling of timber: The main reasons for decrease in forest cover are due to rotational/clear felling of matured plantations and diversion of forest lands under FCA (AP SOFR 2010). In spite of ban on tree felling, timber, bamboo, and industrial wood are being regularly har- vested in AP forests. The total timber harvest grew by about 66% from 2002-03 to 2005-06. The maximum timber har- vested was in Adilabad in 2002 it was more than 50%, followed by Rajamun- dry. In the next ve years, the share of Adilabad has fallen, though it still consti- tutes the largest share of timber cutting by the Dept. It should be noted, that Adilabad has more than 52% of the States Dense Forests, and more than 20% of Moderately Dense forests. Over the years, the dept has spread its net to include other forest circles, such as Khammam, Ananthapur, etc. However Hyderabad, Tirupathi and Srisailam have not been exploited for timber by the Dept, though obviously tree cutting has been carried on due to other reasons, mainly in Hyderabad, such as road widen- ing, construction, and extension of other utilities such as water pipelines, power cables, drains, etc. Industrial Wood: Industrial cutting of wood reached a high level during 2004- 05, but has fallen subsequently. Kham- mam provided the bulk of industrial wood (86%) initially, but this has fallen over the years. However even in 2008-09, it provided the maximum of 35%. Raja- mundry got a burst in 2003-04, providing more than 50%, but this has subsequent- ly fallen. Other forests in Vishakapatnam, and Srisailam are now being exploited for industrial wood. Fuel Wood: Surprisingly, the demand for fuel wood which was zero for three years seems to have increased tremendously in 2008-09, while that of timber seems to be falling. One of the objectives of forest conservation was to reduce fuel wood use, by promoting alternative energy such as natural gas, biogas, and solar energy in village and forest communities (AP forest Dept). However the increase in fuel wood felling seems to show that this scheme has not succeeded, as can be seen by its mas- sive growth of over 400% from 2008-09. REFORESTATION According to the Vision 2020, AP is sup- posed to have taken up a massive refor- estation drive to restore the degraded forests, and to bring more land under forests. However, the ndings depicted above do not seem to support this claim. Total Growing Stock in the 63,814 sq km of recorded forest area was estimated to be 232 million cubic meters and the average growing stock of the state was 36.37 cubic meters per Ha. But the State forest growing stock has decreased from 291.394 million cubic meters to 232 mil- lion cubic meters in 2009 (AP Forestry Inventory Report 2009). This does not augur well for forest conservation and sustainable development. The JFM programme is supposed to have raised 3535.62sq kms of plantations in AP till 2009, comprising of teak, non- teak, tamarind, red sanders, etc (AP Forests at a glance 2010). However the same website shows that by 2009, the for- est cover under JFM programmes had fallen by-3315.91 sq kms. If we look into forest land under differ- ent legal classications, we nd that the Government of AP seems to have been converting more of its forest lands from Protected and Unclassied, into Re- served Forests. The share of Reserved Forests increased from 67.5% in 1956-57, to 79% in 1991-92, while that of other two have fallen (26% to 19%, and 8% to 1.5% respectively, and have remained constant for the past 18 years). Reserved forests are not supposed to permit any type of eco- nomic activity, and so by notifying the maximum area under this category, the government of AP may have hoped to show conservation. Forest area may remain constant, be- cause it is based on Governments clas- sication. However, forest cover has not remained so. Forest Cover has fallen from about 44.6 thousand sq km in 2001 to 42.2 thousand sq km in 2008, a fall of 5.35%. Ofcial data shows that eco- nomic activity is permitted on only Un- classed Forests, which constitute only 1.5%. But the fact that so much of forest cover is decreasing shows that the Re- served and Protected Forests are not being conserved, and that economic ac- tivity and tree felling are going on in these areas. Not only is forest cover falling, but dense forests are increasingly getting converted to open forests and scrub land, showing that tree cover is thinning out. If we look at forest density, then Dense Forests registered a negative growth of 24% over the eight years from 2000 2008, while Open Forests and Scrub land grew by 20.4% and 36.3% respectively. Also the share of Dense Forests has fallen from 47.4% in 2000, to 35% in 2008, while that of Open Forests have increased from 34.5% to 40.6%. Simi- larly Scrub land has increased from 18% of forest area to 24% in 2008. Joint Forest Management was set up to encourage local communities to take up forest conservation. However the last two years data shows that the forest cover under VSS has fallen by around 23%, while that under notied or govern- ment forest has fallen by 76%. This seems to indicate that VSS has also not been successful in conserving forest cover. Data on district wise distribution of forests and conservation shows that the net change in forest cover in 2008 as compared to 2007 was negative for all the 12 forest divisions of AP. The maximum loss of forest cover has been in Kham- mam 58.52 sq km, more than half of the total deforestation in AP. This is fol- lowed by Rajamundry with nearly 23 sq km loss. In spite of the Forest departments claims, tree felling is continuing. Thus total timber harvest grew by about 66% from 2002-03 to 2005-06. The maximum timber harvested is in Adilabad, followed by Rajamundry. Wood for industrial uses has also been growing by 14.27%. Al- though the Forest Department claims that the JFM programme was supposed to have raised 3535.62sq kms of planta- tions in AP till 2009, the forest cover under JFM programmes had actually fallen by 3315.91 sq kms. Therefore forest conservation in AP does not seem to have yielded results, as forest cover has been falling. Rising tree harvesting for fuel, timber, and industrial cuts, plus diversion of forest land to non- forest uses are nibbling away forest cover in the state, though forest land is nomi- nally constant. Some highly forested cir- cles in AP have shown deterioration of their forest cover, or conversion of dense forests to open and scrub land. Hence more vigilance and greater conservation efforts are needed to ensure that the re- maining forests of AP are sustained for the future. (DR. PANTH is a professor at Osmania University, Hyderabad. Her area of spea- cialisation is Environmental Economics and have published about 22 articles in various academic journals and presented them at different seminars. She have also completed a UGC major research project entitled: The Economic Signicance of Wastewater Management: A case study of Bolaram Industrial Estate. This article is based on one of the chapters . The views expressed in the article are per- sonal and do not reect the ofcial policy or position of the organisation.) CONSTANTLY DIMINISHING FOREST COVER IS A TESTIMONY TO THE FACT THAT THE RESERVED AND PROTECTED FORESTS ARE NOT BEING CONSERVED Since its incorporation (1973), IIPM has been an institution with privileged traditions, in the diversity of its fraternity, its global outlook, its world class research and its commitment to alternative national economic planning process. It can be said, without much oversimplication that there are no underdeveloped economies. There are only under managed countries. Japan 140 years was ago was an underdeveloped country by every material measurement. But it very quickly produced management of great competence, indeed of excellence. The policy inference is that management is the prime mover and development is the consequence. At IIPM, every one considers that development is a matter of human energies rather than economic wealth. And the generation and direction of these human energies is the task of management. Accordingly, we formed The Great Indian Dream. Unlike any other dream, this is one dream which each one of us are determined to realise and that too in our own lifetimes. Each bit of cynicism and condemnation from pessimists makes us evolve even stronger and determined. All our endeavours and initiative is towards realisation of this dream, where in we produce committed bare foot managers and entrepreneurs who are needed by nation, on an insistent basis. As an educational institute, we aim at initializing a three dimensional personality in IIPMites, viz. n Pursuit of knowledge in economics and management n Commitment to economic, social, political and technological upliftment of masses and n Cultivation of taste for literature, ne arts and etc. Economists often have limited access to the practical problems facing senior managers, while senior managers often lack the time and motivation to look beyond their own industry to the larger issues of the global economy. It has set before it the twin tasks: to reorient education and research towards the needs of both the private and public sectors and to establish the link between the National Economic Planning and the development of private enterprises in Indian economy. IIPM dares to look beyond, and understands that what we teach today, other adopt tomorrow. IIPMs service output (education, research and consulting,) is a unique combination of two distinct disciplines: economics and management. Through this integration, IIPM helps guide business and policy leaders in shaping the Indian and global economy, bringing together the practical insights of industry with broader national and global perspectives. A hall mark of IIPM is that it is armed with the comparative advantage of engaging the committed, passionate and brightest management post graduates and undergraduates, who pursued the education at IIPM and subsequently joined it, to realise the dream. IIPM alumni, spread across the globe, holding crucial decision-making positions in the corporate sector, are bonded by the one ideology of making a positive difference, turning that ideology into a movement itself. The Great Indian Dream is another humble initiative towards the realisation of the same and more distinctly, engaging the broader publics and pertinent stakeholders. IIPM: THE FUTURE IS HERE SEARCH, SIEVE, SCHEME... After 8 years of bringing out The India Economy Review as a quarterly journal, weve decided to rechristen it as The Great Indian Dream and make it monthly with an idea to have a more regular impact on the Indian economy and realise the Great Indian Dream of an educated, healthy and employed India. In economics, like in everyday existence, it is imperative to hear, perceive and consider what others have to say. Each issue of The Great Indian Dream brings together a selection of important contributions on a particular theme, authored by some of the brightest minds in different areas of Indian economics. The provocation for publishing these issues arises from the fact that over the years economic journals have become copious, exclusive and expensive. Most of the journals and a good many of the books have gone beyond the cerebral and nancial reach of general students and other scholars. It is for them that these issues are primarily being raised and debated here. Much about India is transparent enough. One does not require detailed criteria, cunning calibration or probing analysis to pinpoint Indias problems and recognise its antecedents. There is in fact much that is perceptible about India. But not everything about India is even if simplistic is so simple. The learned reader would appreciate the fact that India is like an elephant that looms too large to be grasped within a distinct structure and paradigm the constituent parts of which would fail to reveal the entirety. Obviously and observably, no suggested solution to any protracted and complex socio-economic problem will satisfy all sides and stake-holders evenly. Consequently, there exists an enormous diversity in economic thinking and perspectives, as is also reected in the viewpoints of different expert contributors in this issue. The intended outcome of this exercise is to facilitate the invention, improvement, deliberation and dissemination of innovation in economic thinking and national economic planning, insisting merely on well-grounded, open and unbiased debates, without predetermined outcomes. It is impossible to do justice to the entire eld of Indian economics in a single issue. The topics selected for this issue are those which are of critical and immediate importance to India. Majority of them were freshly and exclusively written. Encapsulated, it is a constructive attempt aimed at helping India actualise its promises and potential. The editors hope that this issue of the GID proffer the reader a avour of dynamism and excitement and persuade her/him to participate in the journey towards realising The Great Indian Dream. At the same time, it illuminates the terrible, practical problems of India and Bharat.