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[client name withheld]
Question: Looking back at the U.S.‐ASEAN Summit from the Burma perspective: what
did it achieve, what are the implications of going forward, after Obama's request for
the release of Aung San Suu Kyi (notwithstanding the fact the US‐ASEAN statement
did not make the same request).
Answer: It is significant that the paragraph on Myanmar in the U.S.‐ASEAN joint
statement is one of the longest eclipsed by paragraph on non‐proliferation. The U.S.
and ASEAN reached common ground and agreed on long‐term goals thus setting the
foundation for mutually cooperative efforts. The joint statement did not mention
specifics such as the release from detention of Aung San Suu Kyi or U.S. sanctions.
Individual members of ASEAN have been quite blunt in remarks to Myanmar held
within the context of informal ASEAN retreats. But ASEAN is and will remain divided.
Vietnam has declared that the question of Aung San Suu Kyi is an internal matter and
that ASEAN should not interfere. Nonetheless the U.S. and ASEAN are now on record
as supporting national reconciliation, “free, fair, inclusive and transparent” national
elections, and dialogue among all the stakeholders (read National League for
Democracy and ethnic minorities).
President Obama and his officials have indicated that the United States takes a long‐
term view of change in Burma extending beyond the 2010 elections. It takes two to
tango. The U.S. and ASEAN will apply diplomatic and political pressure on the
military regime to conduct credible elections. It is now up to the military regime,
which indicated a desire for dialogue with the United States, to respond and indicate
whether their desire for dialogue is a tactical ploy or a sign of a desire for greater
regional integration. At the same time, the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi must
demonstrate some willingness to test the waters rather than rigidly oppose the
military regime. And ethnic minorities are not blameless either, some could play the
role of spoiler. Finally, whatever eventuates in the long‐term the role and future
status of the military must be carefully negotiated.