The Geostrategic Risks Facing Western Policy ANDREW SMALL 2014 Te German Marshall Fund of the United States. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to: Te German Marshall Fund of the United States 1744 R Street, NW Washington, DC 20009 T 1 202 683 2650 F 1 202 265 1662 E info@gmfus.org Tis publication can be downloaded for free at http://www.gmfus.org/publications. About the Europe Program Te Europe Program aims to enhance understanding of the challenges facing the European Union and the potential implications for the transatlantic relationship. Analysis, research, and policy recommendations are designed to understand the dichotomy of disintegration and deepening of the EU and to help improve the political, economic, fnancial, and social stability of the EU and its member states. In 2014, the Europe Program focuses on integration and disintegration in the EU, the deepening of the euro area, the changing role of Germany in Europe and the world, as well as challenges in the EUs neighborhood. About GMF Te German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, and global challenges and opportunities in the spirit of the Marshall Plan. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institu- tions working in the transatlantic sphere, by convening leaders and members of the policy and business communities, by contributing research and analysis on transatlantic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to foster renewed commitment to the transatlantic relationship. In addition, GMF supports a number of initiatives to strengthen democra- cies. Founded in 1972 as a non-partisan, non-proft organization through a gif from Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides of the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has ofces in Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, Bucharest, Warsaw, and Tunis. GMF also has smaller representations in Bratislava, Turin, and Stockholm. On the cover: Chinas president Xi Jinping (lef) and Russias president Vladimir Putin ahead of a group photo ceremony at the Fourth Summit of Conference on Interaction and Confdence Building Measures in Asia. ITAR-TASS/ Mikhail Metzel/Corbis. Ukraine, Russia, and the China Option The Geostrategic Risks Facing Western Policy Europe Policy Paper May 2014 By Andrew Small 1 1 Andrew Small is a Transatlantic Fellow with GMFs Asia Program based in Washington, DC. He is the author of The China-Pakistan Axis: Asias New Geopolitics, forthcoming with Hurst/Oxford University Press, 2014. Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Chinas Impact on the Wests Ukraine Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Sino-Russian Relations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 China and Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Ukraine, Russia, and the China Option 1 Executive Summary 1 The Issue B eijing has sought to take a neutral stance in the stand-off between Russia and the West. Yet as the recent $400 billion Sino-Russian energy deal illustrates, Chinas economic decisions will inevitably have major implications. The question is not whether Beijing will tilt definitively toward one or other party but the extent to which China will prove to be an enabling or a constraining factor for different facets of Western and Russian policy. In a crisis that has hinged to an unusual degree on trade deals, loans, energy exports, financial assets, and sanctions, the worlds second largest economy cannot avoid becoming politically embroiled. Policy Recommendations In some areas, there are opportunities for the European Union, in cooperation with the United States, to leverage Chinas growing geo-economic interest in Central and Eastern Europe, where Beijing and Moscows interests are far from identical. But the principal challenge will be navigating Chinas role in mitigating the impact of Western sanctions on Russia. At present there is the risk that the EU and the United States will end up with the worst of all worlds: sanctions that are not strong enough to change Moscows behavior or to deter China from further military assertiveness in its own neighborhood, yet just potent enough to push Russia into a closer relationship with China, and to persuade Beijing that it needs to immunize itself against exposure to the Western financial system. Ukraine, Russia, and the China Option 3 Chinas Impact on the Wests Ukraine Policy 2 Emphasis on the unlikelihood of a Sino-Russian alliance underestimates just how much mutual support the two sides can give each other without any deeper political or security alignment. W ithin the space of two months, three presidential visits marked a defining period for Chinas relationship with the West: Xi Jinping in Europe, Barack Obama in Asia, and Vladimir Putin in China. Hanging over all of them has been the crisis in Ukraine. Much of the best recent commentary has focused on pronouncing China the winner, 1 explaining why Beijing will refuse to choose between Russia and the West, 2 or arguing that a China-Russia axis is unlikely to ensue. 3 Yet despite the supposedly pervasive mistrust between Moscow and Beijing, Putins visit to China at the end of May saw the conclusion of major economic deals, which, coupled with the relaxation of restrictions on Chinese investment and Russian arms sales, has significant implications both for Russias scope to weather the Wests economic squeeze and for Chinese military capabilities. Emphasis on the unlikelihood of a Sino-Russian alliance underestimates just how much mutual support the two sides can give each other without any deeper political or security alignment. Chinas economic presence will also weigh increasingly in Europes eastern neighborhood. This has already been evident in Ukraine itself, whether 1 See for instance Artyom Lukin, The Winner of the U.S.- Russia Conflict in Ukraine: China, The Huffington Post, Apr 17, 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/artyom-lukin/us-russia- china_b_5168015.html and Dmitri K. Simes and Paul J. Saun- ders, And the Winner in Ukraine IsChina, Mar 12, 2014, The National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/ the-winner-ukraine-ischina-10034, last accessed May 6, 2014. 2 Jin Canrong, Chinas Policy Would Avoid Thucydides Trap in Ukraine, The Huffington Post, Mar 24, 2014, http://www.huff- ingtonpost.com/jin-canrong/chinas-policy-ukraine_b_5018708. html, last accessed May 6, 2014. 3 Samuel Charap and Ely Ratner, China:Neither Ally nor EnemyonRussia, The National Interest, Apr 2, 2014, http:// nationalinterest.org/commentary/china-neither-ally-nor-enemy- russia-10168, last accessed May 6, 2014; for an extended treat- ment of these issues, see Lo, Bobo, Axis Of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics, Brookings Institution Press & Chatham House, 2008. it be former President Viktor Yankuvoych flying to Beijing to seek a top-up for Kyivs $10 billion of Chinese credit 4 just days after walking away from the EU association agreement, or Russias touting of Chinese investments in Crimea as providing de facto legitimacy for its annexation. 5 But China has certainly not signed up to facilitate the perpetuation of Moscows economic and political dominance, and has shown few qualms about systematically displacing Russian economic influence in other parts of the former Soviet Union. As Chinas geo-economic strategy accords an increasingly important role to a region that now finds itself as a vital link in the Silk Road Economic Belt a wide-ranging set of plans to develop Eurasian infrastructure, energy, and commercial connections between Chinas Western provinces and European markets Chinese investment, financing, and trade is a potential asset for the West in undermining Moscows efforts to keep Central and Eastern Europe under its thumb (see Figure 1). An issue with even wider implications is Beijings reaction to the first use of sophisticated financial sanctions against a large, globally integrated economy and fellow P5 member rather than a classic rogue state. U.S. officials have warned in barely-veiled terms that these measures could be replicated if China were to mirror Russias behavior in its own neighborhood. 6 In principle, this might be expected to act as a deterrent for 4 Neil Buckley and Roman Olearchyk, Yanukovich seeks China backing as unrest as imperils Ukraines economy, The Financial Times, Dec 3, 2013, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5c435284- 5c25-11e3-931e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz30mebZHwB, last accessed May 6, 2014. 5 Arten Zhitenev, China De Facto Recognizes Crimea as Part of Russia, Ria Novosti, May 5 2014, http://en.ria.ru/ world/20140505/189592723/OPINION-China-De-Facto-Recog- nizes-Crimea-as-Part-of-Russia.html, last accessed May 6, 2014. 6 David Brunnstrom, U.S. warns China not to attempt Crimea- style action in Asia, Reuters, Apr 4, 2014, http://uk.reuters. com/article/2014/04/04/uk-usa-china-crimea-asia-idUK- BREA3300020140404, last accessed May 6, 2014. The German Marshall Fund of the United States 4 Chinese policymakers, who are less prone than their Russian counterparts to affecting nonchalance about the repercussions of becoming embroiled in economic warfare. But over the longer term, there is the risk that the Wests financial sanctions could hasten Chinese efforts to strengthen the resilience of the non-dollarized financial system. Current debates in Russia about expanding the issuance of yuan-denominated bonds 7 and the use of the Chinese payment network, UnionPay, in place of sanctions-hit Visa and Mastercard 8 appear to be small fry given the scale of capital flight from the Russian economy. But they are a foretaste of what a more sustained such push would look like. As Barry Eichengreen notes, the dollar moved from a negligible role in international trade and payments to surpass sterling as the leading international reserve currency in just ten years. 9
7 Ksenia Galouchko and Elena Mazneva, Putin Turn to China Heralds New Look at Yuan Debt: Russia Credit, Bloomberg, Apr 14, 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-14/putin- turn-to-china-heralds-new-look-at-yuan-debt-russia-credit. html, last accessed May 6, 2014. 8 Camilla Hall and Kathryn Hille, Visa and MasterCard fear sanctions fallout, The Financial Times, Mar 1, 2014, http://www. ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7a015708-d14b-11e3-bdbb-00144feabdc0. html#axzz30ZcGOlRH, last accessed May 6, 2014. 9 Barry Eichengreen, The Renminbi as an International Currency, January 2010, University of California, Berkeley, http://eml.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/renminbi_interna- tional_1-2011.pdf, last accessed May 12, 2014. Like the United States in 1914, when the dollars internationalization first accelerated, China in 2014 has become the worlds largest trading nation, and Beijing certainly has the wherewithal to develop a robust alternative to the Western-dominated banking and financial transaction networks, parts of which it now has greater cause to fear might be weaponized against China. Counting Crimeas Costs for China In the early phase of the crisis, China studiously avoided any perception of a tilt toward either Russia or the West, whether through its UN abstentions or a series of opaque official pronouncements. The Chinese foreign ministrys insistence on repeating cryptically that there are reasons that the Ukrainian situation is what it is today was only topped by Xis own elliptical statement that the situation seems to be accidental but has the elements of the inevitable. 10 A more frank summary from an advisor to the Chinese government was that were going to lie low on this 10 Xi Jinping Holds Telephone Talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Embassy of the Peoples Republic of China in the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh, Mar 4, 2014, http:// bd.china-embassy.org/eng/zgyw/t1134590.htm, last accessed May 6, 2014. Figure 1: Chinese Trade with Eastern Partnership Countries Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (2005-12) and China Customs Statistics (1999-2004) 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 U S D
1 0 0 0 0 Total Trade with China, 1999-2012 Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan Moldova Belarus 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 U S D
1 0 0 0 0 Total Trade with China, 1999-2011 Ukraine Ukraine, Russia, and the China Option 5 As nervous U.S. allies in Asia have raised a steady drumbeat of concerns that Russian success could embolden China, Beijing has struggled to escape the taint of Putins actions. issue, wait and see how it plays out, and at the end well be friends with everybody. 11 The Ukraine crisis certainly appears to afford Beijing a number of advantages. It finds itself being courted by Moscow, Washington, and European capitals. There is the prospect that the United States will be distracted yet again from its Asia pivot. The EU debates over plans to reduce its dependency on Russian gas came at just the moment when Chinas own long-running negotiations with Gazprom reached a decisive stage. Yet the view that Beijing emerges as a comfortable winner from the crisis in Ukraine, and can simply choose not to choose sides while reaping benefits in its relations with all of them, does not capture the full picture. As nervous U.S. allies in Asia have raised a steady drumbeat of concerns that Russian success could embolden China, 12 Beijing has struggled to escape the taint of Putins actions. The Japanese Prime Minister was one of the first off the mark, noting at the March G7 meeting in the Hague that [w]hats happening in Crimea isnt merely an issue for this region, but it could happen in Asia. 13 Senior U.S. policymakers made the link as well, with the State Departments top Asia official stating, during his congressional testimony on the South China Sea, that the retaliatory sanctions imposed on Russia should have a chilling effect on anyone in China who might contemplate the Crimea annexation 11 Jamil Anderlini, Ukraine standoff puts China on the spot, The Financial Times, Mar 12, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/ cms/s/0/19d35e2a-a988-11e3-b87c-00144feab7de.html?siteediti on=intl#axzz2xlX2QVLP, last accessed May 6, 2014. 12 Aamer Madhani, Ukraine crisis shadows Obamas Asia trip, USA Today, Apr 20, 2014, http://www.usatoday.com/story/ news/world/2014/04/20/obama-asia-trip-ukraine/7938701/, last accessed May 6, 2014. 13 China criticises Japans Abe over Crimea remarks, Yahoo Finance, Mar 28, 2014, https://au.news.yahoo.com/ world/a/22234725/china-criticises-japans-abe-over-crimea- remarks/, last accessed May 6, 2014. as a model. 14 Ahead of Obamas Asia visit, U.S. officials briefed the press that the U.S. military had prepared options for a muscular response to any future Chinese provocations in the South and East China seas, ranging from displays of B-2 bomber flights near China to aircraft-carrier exercises near its coastal waters, a menu of options that reflects concerns that U.S. allies in Asia have about the Obama administrations commitments to its security obligations, particularly after Russias seizure of the Crimean peninsula. 15
Evidently there were already anxieties in the region about how much appetite the United States had to defend friends and allies under threat, but Ukraine has further raised the stakes. With the Putinization of the debate about great power behavior, China now faces an even more exacting level of scrutiny. An assortment of Chinas techniques expanding sovereignty claims, economic coercion, the use of non-military actors to provoke confrontations, salami-slicing tactics take on a different resonance in the context of the Eurasian Union, self-defense units, and Novorossiya. And while many of these analogies are unfair, in private conversations in Western and 14 David Brunnstrom, U.S. warns China not to attempt Crimea-style action in Asia, Reuters, Apr 4, 2014, http:// uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/04/uk-usa-china-crimea-asia- idUKBREA3300020140404, last accessed May 6, 2014. This was quickly followed by the National Security Staff s senior director for Asian affairs, Evan Medeiros, who noted that: The United States has questions raised by Chinas position on Ukraine, given Chinas stated commitment to territorial integrity and sovereignty, but yet its de facto support for Russias position on Ukraine. See Yoichi Kato, Interview: Evan Medeiros: Chinas attempt to isolate Japan worsens bilateral relations, The Asahi Shimbun, Apr 6, 2014, http://ajw.asahi.com/article/views/ opinion/AJ201404060018, last accessed May 6, 2014. Also see Chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Remarks at Brussels Forum, March 22, 2014 http://www. menendez.senate.gov/newsroom/press/chairman-menendez- remarks-at-german-marshall-funds-brussels-forum. 15 Adam EntousandJulian E. Barnes, U.S. Beefs Up Military Options for China as Obama Reassures Allies in Asia, The Wall Street Journal, Apr 27, 2014, http://online.wsj.com/news/ articles/SB10001424052702304163604579528122105809740, last accessed May 6, 2014 The German Marshall Fund of the United States 6 Asian capitals, they are coming thick and fast. The spectacular turnaround in Putins polling following his Crimea gambit has prompted consideration of the circumstances in which the temptation for the Chinese Communist Party to galvanize public opinion behind a populist escalation of disputes in Asia might be too great to resist. Beijing may not have sought to instrumentalize overseas Chinese populations, but Western officials have been moved to wonder what degree of public pressure China would come under if there were to be a repeat of the anti-Chinese riots, expulsions, and pogroms that have occurred in parts of Southeast Asia in recent decades. China could, of course, have drawn the distinction with Russia very clearly by taking a public stance against the first forcible annexation of territory in Europe since the end of World War II. But Beijing is not keeping its head down simply because it wants to reap rewards for its neutrality. It is also deeply uncomfortable with elements of both Western and Russian behavior over the course of the crisis. Ukraine, Russia, and the China Option 7 Western-inspired popular movements of the Maidan variety spook China far more than any Russian military adventurism, and it shares Moscows anxieties about strategic encirclement and its sense of ideological threat. Sino-Russian Relations 3 A Limited Sino-Russian Partnership C hina is certainly not a fan of the tactics that Russia has employed in its neighborhood. Sudden referendums, declarations of independence, and small breakaway republics are still the stuff of nightmares for the Chinese leadership as they cast apprehensive glances at Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang. Chinas unwillingness formally to legitimize the Crimea annexation echoed its previous refusal to back Russias recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the aftermath of the 2008 Georgia invasion. However, Beijings sympathies essentially lie with Russia. Western-inspired popular movements of the Maidan variety spook China far more than any Russian military adventurism, and it shares Moscows anxieties about strategic encirclement and its sense of ideological threat. Vladimir Putins speech lamenting the historical injustice visited on a Russia that had been incapable of protecting its own interests, fulminating against Western-led color revolutions and containment, and demanding respect 16 reflected the private thoughts of many Chinese leaders. Xi himself has, in the words of one leading Sinologist, spent the first year of his rule demonstrating a palpable obsession with the demise of the Soviet Union. 17
Echoing Putins description of the fall of the USSR as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century, Xi gave one of his first speeches as leader urging party officials to learn the lessons of its untimely end: Finally, all it took was one quiet word from Gorbachev to declare the dissolution of the Soviet Communist Party, and a great party was 16 Full English-language translation of Putins speech claiming Ukraines Crimea for Russia, Kyiv Post, Mar 19, 2014, http:// www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/putin-justifies-russian- annexation-of-ukraines-crimea-339815.html, last accessed May 6, 2014. 17 Joseph Fewsmith, Maos Shadow, China Leadership Monitor, No. 43, p. 7, http://media.hoover.org/sites/default/files/docu- ments/CLMJF.pdf, last accessed May 6, 2014. gone In the end nobody was a real man, nobody came out to resist. 18
In the eyes of senior Chinese officials, Putins bona fide real man efforts at resisting the West have elicited a mix of fascination, attraction and horror. For over a decade, he has been a standing counterpoint to Chinas more measured, cautious, and weaker collective leadership, tougher, bolder and more reckless in his exercise of power. At times of high political anxiety, Chinese leaders have been drawn to Putins Russia by a sense of ideological affinity that has even offered the glimmer of hope that the two sides strategic differences might be bridged. A decade ago in particular, when the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan and the Andijian uprising in Uzbekistan seemed to be bringing the color revolutions of Ukraine and Georgia disturbingly close to Chinas borders, some of Beijings geopolitical caution was thrown to the wind. The 2005 China-Russia Joint Statement on New World Order 19 and subsequent demands from the Sino-Russian-dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) for the United States to set a timetable for the closure of its Central Asian bases, looked distinctly like China dabbling with a defensive political alliance. Yet like many of his predecessors in the Kremlin, Putins moments of strategic boldness have conspicuously failed to take Chinese interests into account. The Georgia invasion was an embarrassing spoiler for the 2008 Olympics, Chinas coming out party, and Putins post-9/11 decision to give the U.S. military access to the Central Asian bases 18 Chris Buckley, Vows of Change in China Belie Private Warning, The New York Times, Feb 14, 2014, http://www. nytimes.com/2013/02/15/world/asia/vowing-reform- chinas-leader-xi-jinping-airs-other-message-in-private. html?pagewanted=all, last accessed May 6, 2014. 19 China, Russia issue joint statement on new world order, Peoples Daily, Jul 4, 2005, http://english.people.com. cn/200507/01/eng20050701_193636.html, last accessed May 6, 2014. The German Marshall Fund of the United States 8 in the first place stunned Beijing. Moreover, the longstanding obstacles to a deeper relationship showed little sign of being overcome. Russia has deep-seated concerns about becoming an energy appendage of the Chinese economy and sliding into junior partner status in the relationship, fears about Chinas encroachment in the Russian Far East, and a residual sense that China may yet become a military rival again. As a result, Moscow has been unwilling to sell its most advanced military equipment, close major pipeline deals, or allow significant levels of Chinese investment in the Russian economy. While the two sides forged a close partnership at the UN Security Council, Russia has given little backing to Chinas position in East Asia, selling superior arms to Chinas rivals India and Vietnam, and playing Beijing and Tokyo off against each other on energy contracts. Even when Chinese leaders have been quietly cheering Putin on for standing up to the West, they have seen little advantage to involving themselves in an overt confrontation that could drag them into a Cold War style contest or put Chinas economic relations with its largest trading partners at risk. Despite lively debates among Chinese foreign policy strategists about the potential value of forging a quasi-alliance with Russia against U.S. hegemony, 20 geo-economics has generally trumped geopolitics. For these and other related reasons, the prevailing view among Russia and China analysts has been that the Ukraine crisis is unlikely to catalyze deeper political bonds between Beijing and Moscow. A Deepening Sino-Russian Partnership However, there is ample evidence that the two sides do not need to enter into a process of closer political and military alignment to have a decisive impact on each others interests. With the Russian 20 Zhang Feng, Chinas New Thinking on Alliances, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 54:5, 2012, p.129-148. economy already in recession, hemorrhaging capital (the IMF expects at least $100 billion in investment to be lost this year 21 ) the rouble and stock market plunging, its credit rating marginally above junk status, and the profitability of major Russian companies taking a hit, the rationale for turning to China was clear. If Moscow showed the political willingness and economic flexibility to seal various long-negotiated deals, it had the opportunity to unlock substantial Chinese capital, while Beijing in turn stood to benefit from energy and weapons deals of considerable value. Following Vladimir Putins visit to China, that is exactly what happened. The most significant breakthrough was the $400 billion agreement on gas exports, over which talks between China and Russia had been deadlocked for over ten years. While Chinese oil imports from Russia have already grown significantly, Gazprom had long been unwilling to budge from its demands for European pricing levels. China has been able to fulfill many of its needs from Central Asian suppliers, Turkmenistan in particular, but remained eager to strike a deal if the Russians moved closer to the Turkmen price. Even before the Ukraine crisis, the balance of power in these negotiations had started to shift. While China was finding a variety of alternative suppliers, Russian companies faced the prospect of major new LNG supplies being added to the global market, long-term reductions in European demand, and a variety of short-term financing issues. Xi Jinpings visit to Russia in 2013 set the stage for a mutually beneficial solution. In one of the largest-ever global energy contracts, China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) agreed upon a $270 billion supply deal with Rosneft 21 Carol Williams, IMF says Russian economy already in reces- sion, bleeding capital, Los Angeles Times, Apr 30, 2014, http:// www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-wn-russian-economy- recession-imf-20140430,0,3964367.story#axzz30UjXDLkr, last accessed May 6, 2014. Despite lively debates among Chinese foreign policy strategists about the potential value of forging a quasi-alliance with Russia against U.S. hegemony,
geo-economics has generally trumped geopolitics. Ukraine, Russia, and the China Option 9 to double oil exports to the Chinese market. 22
Crucially, it included a $60-70 billion prepayment agreement, allowing the state-owned company virtually to eliminate its net debt. 23
Gazproms huge 30-year deal with CNPC, at volumes equivalent to one-quarter of its total sales to the European market, appeared set to apply the same model. Indications were that, thanks to the Ukraine crisis, Russias newfound flexibility on price 24 would bring the number closer to Chinas target figure, but that the pill would be sweetened with another Chinese prepayment to pay for many of the capital costs. 25 The final details of the pricing arrangements for a deal that ended up going to the wire during Putins visit were not publicly released. Yet indications were that Gazprom had ultimately secured a price that was not too far below the European average, 26 and the extended rally in the companys stock price 27 continued after the announcement. Coming at precisely the 22 China Energy Developments, Forum, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Issue 95, Feb 2014, p. 19-22, http://www. oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/OEF-95. pdf, last accessed May 6, 2014. 23 Jake Rudnitsky and Stephen Bierman, Rosnefts $270 Billion Oil Deal Set to Make China Biggest Market, Bloomberg, Jun 21, 2013, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-21/rosneft-s- 270-billion-oil-deal-set-to-make-china-biggest-market.html, last accessed May 6, 2014. 24 Vladimir Soldatkin and Chen Aizhu, Ukraine crisis seen speeding Gazprom deal with China, Reuters, Apr 23, 2014, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/23/ukraine-crisis-russia- china-idUKL6N0NF3DW20140423, last accessed May 6, 2014. 25 Vladimir Soldatkin, Ron Bousso, and Oleg Vukmanovic, Gazprom eyes tradeoff between price, prepayment in China talks, Reuters, Jan 22, 2014 http://www.reuters.com/ article/2014/01/22/gazprom-china-idUSL5N0KW16J20140122, last accessed May 6, 2014. 26 Alexei Anishchuk, As Putin looks east, China and Russia sign $400 billion gas deal, Reuters, May 21, 2014, http://www. reuters.com/article/2014/05/21/us-china-russia-gas-idUS- BREA4K07K20140521, last accessed May 22, 2014. 27 Angus Grigg, China, Russia set to sign $100 billion gas deal, Financial Review, May 19, 2014, http://www.afr.com/p/world/ china_russia_set_to_sign_us_gas_xqkFQyP0ywUOwYCk- wvR9JM, last accessed May 22, 2014. moment when the West is looking to squeeze Russias economy, Chinese energy experts privately acknowledged that this would go down badly in the United States and Europe, but considered the temporary opprobrium a price worth paying for a long-desired deal that will have an impact on Chinas domestic gas market, and on regional and global trading [that is] substantial and well beyond previous expectations. 28 The gas deal was coupled with a relaxation of informal restrictions on Chinese investment in the Russian economy across a variety of sectors, from natural resources to infrastructure and real estate, 29 reflecting the fact that Moscow can no longer afford to be quite as picky about the source of its financing. And economic considerations have also stimulated Russias new-found willingness to sell advanced defense equipment to the Chinese. For the best part of a decade, Moscow had been cautious about giving China access to military technology that could either be used to augment its capabilities in a future conflict with Russia or reverse-engineered and sold on in third markets. After 15 years of being Chinas biggest arms supplier following the end of the Cold War, purchases had dwindled to virtually zero, and Chinese defense companies were turning up at international arms fairs with cloned versions of Russian fighter jets. 30 But last year, faced with budget restrictions, the Russian military embarked 28 China Energy Developments, Forum, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Issue 95, Feb 2014, p. 19-22, http://www. oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/OEF-95. pdf, last accessed May 6, 2014. 29 Evgenia Pismennaya, Yuliya Fedorinova, and Ilya Arkhipov, Putin Going After Chinese Money to Sustain Sagging Russian Economy, Bloomberg, May 9, 2014, http://www.bloomberg. com/news/2014-05-08/putin-said-to-seek-chinese-money-with- limits-on-platinum-gold.html, last accessed May 12, 2014. 30 Jeremy Page, China Clones, Sells Russian Fighter Jets, The Wall Street Journal, Dec 4, 2010, http://online.wsj.com/news/ articles/SB10001424052748704679204575646472655698844, last accessed May 6, 2014. Coming at precisely the moment when the West is looking to squeeze Russias economy, Chinese energy experts privately acknowledged that this would go down badly in the United States and Europe, but considered the temporary opprobrium a price worth paying. The German Marshall Fund of the United States 10 Not only is Chinese economic backing an increasingly important base of Moscows support, but there is the prospect that Russian military technology sales will directly influence the balance of power in Asia. on a multi-billion dollar set of agreements that promise to provide Beijing with some of its highest- grade equipment. These include the Su-35 fighters, Lada-class diesel submarines, and the S-400 air defense missiles. The Su-35s, described by one defense analyst as the best non-stealth fighter in the world today, are superior to any plane currently available to the PLA Air Force, with the potential to strengthen Chinas enforcement and deterrence capabilities in the East and South China Seas. 31 The S-400s would for the first time give China complete air dominance of Taiwan, as well as air defense coverage of the SenkakuIslands (which China calls the Diaoyu Islands), and the capacity to defend against Indian ballistic missiles. Between them, the systems provide the Chinese with a substantial boost in combat quality. 32 Until recently, there were doubts about whether some of these deals would actually go through, but the Ukraine crisis again seems to have tipped the balance further 31 Peter Wood, How China Plans to Use the Su-35, The Diplomat, Nov 27, 2013, http://thediplomat.com/2013/11/ how-china-plans-to-use-the-su-35/, last accessed May 6, 2014. 32 Stephen Blank, The Context of RussoChinese Military Relations, American Foreign Policy Interests: The Journal of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, Oct 7, 2013, http://www.ncafp.org/ncafp/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/ Blank-Context-of-Russo-Chinese-Military-Relations.pdf, last accessed May 6, 2014. announcements stating that the contracts would be signed this year came in March and April. 33 Energy sales, new investments, and arms supplies do not require China or Russia to provide reciprocal political backing for each others stances in Europe and Asia, and they are certainly still consistent with Beijing maintaining close ties to the United States and the European Union. They do, however, amount to a mutually enabling Sino- Russian partnership that is qualitatively different from the form it has taken in the post-Cold War period. For many years, the prospect of Western policies pushing China and Russia together, and encouraging a Russian tilt away from Europe, was too unlikely to merit serious consideration. Now not only is Chinese economic backing an increasingly important base of Moscows support, but there is the prospect that Russian military technology sales will directly influence the balance of power in Asia, with an adverse impact on the Wests friends and allies in the region. 33 Zachary Keck, Putin Approves Sale of S-400 to China, The Diplomat, Apr 11, 2014, http://thediplomat.com/2014/04/putin- approves-sale-of-s-400-to-china/ and http://www.ruaviation. com/news/2014/3/19/2231/, last accessed May 6, 2014. Ukraine, Russia, and the China Option 11 Chinas Presence in Europes Neighborhood T he picture looks somewhat different in Europes eastern neighborhood, where the contest between Russia and the West is playing out over the stabilization, integration, and economic struggles of the region. As Ukraines second-largest trade partner 34 and a major financier, China has already become directly embroiled in the crisis as a result of its economic relationship with Ukraine, though it has walked the political line very carefully. Yanukovych hoped to secure extra credit lines in China to help him through the crisis induced by failing to sign the EU association agreement. 35 He left with $8 billion in investment promises but no new financing. Following his ouster in February, China was forced to deny that it was going to sue Ukraine over a $3 billion agricultural loan. 36 A few weeks later, a senior China EXIM Bank official made stronger statements about Chinas commitment to the country: Chinese companies have a lot of investments in Ukraine, and the intensity will increase. We will not pull out or reduce the investments due to the current situation. 37
Neither in Ukraine nor elsewhere in the region are Chinas economic objectives in individual countries going to drive its broader strategic calculations. The bigger issues at stake in Beijings relationship 34 China becomes Ukraines 2nd biggest trading partner, Xinhua, Sep 26, 2013, http://www.globaltimes.cn/ content/814075.shtml; last accessed May 6, 2014. 35 Neil Buckley and Roman Olearchyk, Yanukovich seeks China backing as unrest as imperils Ukraines economy, The Financial Times, Dec 3, 2013, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5c435284- 5c25-11e3-931e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz30mebZHwB, last accessed May 6, 2014. 36 Chu Daye, $3b loan OK: Ukraine foreign ministry, The Global Times, Feb 27, 2014, http://www.globaltimes.cn/ content/845202.shtml, last accessed May 6, 2014. 37 Ukraines Unrest Wont Keep China From Investing, Exim Bank Says, Bloomberg, Mar 14, 2014, http://www.bloomberg. com/news/2014-03-14/ukraine-s-unrest-won-t-keep-china- from-investing-exim-bank-says.html, last accessed May 6, 2014. with Russia and Europe will not be fundamentally affected by a crop deal or the sale of an aging, half- finished aircraft carrier. But Beijing is not willing simply to subordinate its economic interests to Russian political objectives. China has spent the last decade-and-a-half undertaking a dramatic expansion of its trade and energy ties with Central Asia, a by-product of which has been a major rebalancing of the regions center of economic gravity away from Moscow. 38 Now in Central and Eastern Europe, there is the prospect of leveraging Chinas geo-economic ambitions in a similar fashion. One of the initiatives that Xi was keenest to tout during his visit to Europe was the Silk Road Economic Belt (see Figure 2). The commercial logic is that road and rail routes would provide a faster alternative to the cheap (but slow) shipping corridors, and loop the fast-growing Chinese interior provinces more effectively into global transportation routes much as the infrastructure along Chinas coasts powered the previous phase of its economic boom. The strategic logic is to reduce Chinas dependence on the maritime realm for its trade and energy needs, not least as tensions with the United States and East Asian neighbors intensify. 39 Last year, China launched a freight route running from the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, and on to Hamburg. Hewlett Packard, DHL, and iPhone manufacturer Foxconn are among the companies who have developed their own Sino-European express rail services, which 38 Evan A. Feigenbaum, and Robert A. Manning, The United States in the New Asia, Council on Foreign Relations, Council Special Report No. 50, Nov 2009, http://www.cfr.org/asia-and- pacific/united-states-new-asia/p20446, last accessed May 6, 2014. 39 For a more comprehensive Chinese exposition of the Go West rationale, see Wang Jisis Westward: Chinas Rebalancing Geopolitical Strategy, International and Strategic Studies Report 73, Center for International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, 2012. China and Europe 4 As Ukraines second- largest trade partner and a major financier, China has already become directly embroiled in the crisis as a result of its economic relationship with Ukraine. The German Marshall Fund of the United States 12 slash weeks from the sea route. Kazakhstan is planning for 7.5 million containers to be shipped by rail each year by 2020, versus barely a few thousand in 2012. 40 As a result, China has started touting Eastern Europe as the logistics gateway to European markets, and has been developing a set of infrastructure projects there to facilitate these plans. The 2013 China-CEE summit agreed to build a new international railway transport artery linking China and CEE countries, and will encourage the setting up of bonded areas and distribution centers along the railroad [and] 40 Keith Bradsher, Hauling New Treasure Along the Silk Road, The New York Times, Jul 20, 2013. http://www.nytimes. com/2013/07/21/business/global/hauling-new-treasure-along- the-silk-road.html?_r=0&pagewanted=all, last accessed May 6, 2014. deepen cooperation in highway, port and airport construction. 41 Last October, some Central and Eastern European countries even featured in official documents under the ambit of Chinas so-called greater neighborhood. 42 At times, this initiative has raised hackles in the EU, most notably when China started undertaking separate meetings with 16 leaders from the region (many of which are EU members), and established 41 China, CEE countries vow to boost investment, infra- structure cooperation, Xinhuanet, Nov 26, 2013, http://news. xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-11/26/c_132920119.htm, last accessed May 6, 2014. 42 Mu Chunshan, How Does Europe Rank in Chinas Diplomacy? The Diplomat, Apr 5, 2014, http://thediplomat. com/2014/04/how-does-europe-rank-in-chinas-diplomacy/, last accessed May 10, 2014. Figure 2: Chinas New Silk Roads The red line indicates the proposed land-based economic trade route, the Silk Road Economic Belt, and the blue line the proposed maritime trade route, the Maritime Silk Road. Source: Xinhua, 2014 Ukraine, Russia, and the China Option 13 For Western policymakers, and particularly for European officials, there is a clear opportunity to work with China to sustain and deepen its economic engagement in the region. a distinct secretariat to manage the process. 43
Deeper Chinese involvement in Central and Eastern Europe is by no means uniformly positive from a Western perspective. One of the largest parts of the $8 billion of Chinas investment pledged to Ukraine last year was the $3 billion construction of a deep-water port on the Crimean peninsula, with a $10 billion airport, LNG terminal, and shipyard 44
planned further down the line, which would form one of the nodes for the new Sino-European logistics corridor. 45 Not only have Russian officials claimed that the investment is still going ahead, 46
but they have been touting new plans for a Chinese- built transport corridor across the Kerch Strait 47
that Russian analysts claim mean that China de facto recognizes that Crimea became part of Russia voluntarily. 48 Russia has a strong interest in being the primary conduit for Sino-European trade, and the Eurasian customs union was itself one of the 43 Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar, Does Central Europes Cooperation With China Undermine EU Policy? Friends Of Europe, Dec 20, 2013, http://www.friendsofeurope.org/contentnavigation/ publications/libraryoverview/tabid/1186/articletype/articleview/ articleid/3638/does-central-europes-cooperation-with-china- undermine-eu-policy.aspx, last accessed May 6, 2014. 44 Lucy Hornby, China entrepreneur behind plans to build deep water Crimean port, The Financial Times, Dec 5, 2013, http:// www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/04619a7a-5da2-11e3-95bd-00144fe- abdc0.html#axzz30uall15t, last accessed May 6, 2014. 45 James Kynge, Ukraine a setback in Chinas Eastern Europe Strategy, The Financial Times, Feb 27, 2014, http://blogs.ft.com/ beyond-brics/2014/02/27/ukraine-a-setback-in-chinas-eastern- europe-strategy/, last accessed May 6, 2014. 46 Andrew Rettman, Russia and China forge closer ties, as EU explores sanctions, EU Observer, Apr 17, 2014, http://euob- server.com/foreign/123879, last accessed May 6, 2014. 47 China-Russia join hands for $1.3 bn Crimea project , The Brics Post, May 5, 2014, http://thebricspost.com/china-russia- join-hands-for-1-3-bn-crimea-project/#.U2hyml6bE5s, last accessed May 6, 2014. 48 Arten Zhitenev, China De Facto Recognizes Crimea as Part of Russia, Ria Novosti, May 5, 2014, http://en.ria.ru/ world/20140505/189592723/OPINION-China-De-Facto-Recog- nizes-Crimea-as-Part-of-Russia.html, last accessed May 6, 2014. measures that encouraged Beijing to develop the new rail corridor in the first place. 49
There is little doubt, however, that Beijing plans to spread the benefits and connections around the region rather than relying on a single artery, much like the many branches of the historical trade route that the initiative is modeled on. Despite Chinas ideological and strategic reasons not to want to see the West win this particular contest with Russia, it has certainly not signed up to Moscows agenda to maintain a sphere of influence that is stuck in a permanent state of economic and political dependence. While China still behaves with a modicum of sensitivity in Russias backyard, it is also well aware that in East Asia, Russia has been more than willing to develop commercial and security relationships with very little regard for Beijings preferences. Although it will not say as much in public, as its relationships in the region move from the bilateral to the strategic, China increasingly has more to gain from Central and Eastern Europes integration, prosperity, and stability than it does in temporarily helping to prop up Russian-backed kleptocrats and breakaway criminal enclaves. Chinese officials have even indicated their willingness to play a discreet role in assisting with the economic stabilization of Ukraine itself. For Western policymakers, and particularly for European officials, there is a clear opportunity to work with China to sustain and deepen its economic engagement in the region. Alongside Western aid and financial support, Chinese investment, financing, trade, and infrastructure packages can be actively solicited in the Eastern neighborhood as a priority for cooperation between the EU and China. These issues featured prominently during Xi Jinpings meetings in both 49 Keith Bradsher, Hauling New Treasure Along the Silk Road, The New York Times, Jul 20, 2013, http://www.nytimes. com/2013/07/21/business/global/hauling-new-treasure-along- the-silk-road.html?_r=0&pagewanted=all, last accessed May 6, 2014. The German Marshall Fund of the United States 14 [Russias case] is the first time that these sophisticated financial sanctions have been applied to a major economy and global power, and the trade- offs for China are by no means the same. Germany which is the end of the road for the Silk Road Economic Belt and Brussels. While Western officials will struggle to persuade Chinese officials to stop making lucrative deals with Russia, they can press Beijing to counterbalance this by pushing ahead with major Sino-European infrastructure initiatives and targeted investment projects in key countries, including Ukraine. Applying Financial Sanctions to Major Powers A more complex balance of considerations applies when it comes to Beijings handling of financial sanctions. China has trodden very carefully over matters of global financial stability and the integrity of its banking sector. It has not been willing to take on major economic risks for the sake of geopolitical gambits nor to have its banks become pariahs rather than the major global actors it has taken them some time to develop. As Hank Paulson recounts in his memoirs, when, at the height of the financial meltdown in 2008, Russian officials suggested to China that the two sides sell their holdings in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to force the United States to use its emergency authorities to prop them up, Beijing wanted nothing to do with it, 50 a reflection of the cautious approach that it took throughout the crisis. When the U.S. Treasury embarked on the process of using financial instruments to target rogue states, China also took a conservative stance. So paranoid were its banks about handling North Korean funds after the Treasurys Section 311 designation of Banco Delta Asia, a Macao bank that facilitated North Koreas money-laundering, that a ripple of accounts were quickly frozen by Chinese institutions that wanted to retain their access to the U.S. financial system. After a political deal was forged to return 50 Henry M. Paulson, On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System, Business Plus Publisher, 2011; Loc 2583/7125 [IPAD 3rd Generation; MD366LL/A version]. the North Korean funds, Chinas central bank and finance ministry still refused to touch them, leaving the Russian central bank to take on the task. 51
Chinese oil companies slashed their purchases from Iran in order to receive waivers allowing them to continue dealing with U.S. banks. 52 While Chinese diplomats worked to minimize the scope of multilateral sanctions at the UN, Chinese companies and economic officials were making sure that, when it came to matters of financial legitimacy, they stayed on the right side of the line. But Russia is a different case from Iran or North Korea. It is the first time that these sophisticated financial sanctions have been applied to a major economy and global power, and the trade-offs for China are by no means the same. For Chinese multinationals, the calculation in the case of North Korea was that the modest volume of business they transacted with Pyongyang was not worth the risk of becoming a financial pariah. Iran, a far larger economy and significant energy exporter, was a more balanced call, but the threat of U.S. fines, the difficulties of settling payments, and the reputational risks ultimately acted as a similar deterrent not enough to stop China from sanctions-busting entirely but a major inhibiting factor. With Russia, an economy more than five times the size of Iran, not only are the sums of money at stake far larger, but the process of unwinding its global entanglements is a far more complex task. Not only is the likelihood that Chinese companies will become targets of a U.S. sanctions campaign consequently far less, and dealing with Russian firms is a more worthwhile risk to take. 51 Zarate, Juan, Treasurys War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare, Public Affairs, 2013, Loc 4122/9698 [IPAD 3rd Generation; MD366LL/A version]. 52 Rick Gladstone, U.S. Exempts Singapore and China on Iran Oil, The New York Times, Jun 28, 2012, http://www.nytimes. com/2012/06/29/world/us-exempts-china-and-singapore-from- sanctions-on-iranian-oil.html?_r=0, last accessed May 6, 2014. Ukraine, Russia, and the China Option 15 Russian firms facing difficulties accessing funds in Western markets are already turning to China for financing and access to payment systems. The calculations over whether to assist Moscow in the face of the Wests financial pressure are not purely economic. Before the Crimea annexation, targeted financial sanctions had only been directed at states engaged in classic rogue practices, illicit nuclear programs, terrorist financing, proliferation, and counterfeiting. Now they are being used against a power whose economic size and membership in virtually every important global club the P5, the G8, the WTO, and a host of others might have been thought to protect it. It is a leap to imagine sanctions being applied to China another five times Russias economic size, many times more deeply integrated with the fabric of the global economy, and with vastly greater retaliatory capacity but the precedent has been set. Just as it would have been much harder to contemplate using these tools against Russia without the Iranian experience, the warnings from U.S. officials directed at Beijing sound more credible now than they would have done a few months ago. These are not the crude economic weapons that China faced down in the years after the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown but precision instruments that operate as much by engendering a cascade of fear in the private sector as through any sustained government actions. 53 The ramifications for Russia have already been acute, with European Central Bank head Mario Draghi putting the existing capital flight figure as high as $220 billion 54 as a result of what are still a very limited set of EU and U.S. sanctions. 53 The best treatment of the subject is Zarate, Juan, Treasurys War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare, Public Affairs, 2013. 54 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, ECB: capital flight from Russia has hit $220bn, Daily Telegraph, May 8, 2014, http://www. telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10817511/ECB-capital- flight-from-Russia-has-hit-220bn.html, last accessed May 12, 2014. China on the Rise in the Global Financial System Russian firms facing difficulties accessing funds in Western markets are already turning to China for financing and access to payment systems. The issuance of dim sum bonds RMB-denominated debt issued outside China by Russian companies has been growing. While the $603 million of yuan debt they sold last year was a modest sum, and the overall market remains immature, the rationale for companies with substantial Chinese revenues to scale this up is clear. Gazprom has already mooted the prospect of further yuan bond issues, a curtsey in front of China, as one Russian asset manager put it. 55 In the short-term, this would not even be close to sufficient in helping Russia avoid a sanctions- induced Lehman moment 56 if its financial system hits the wall. RMB internationalization has simply not gone far enough yet for there to be any reasonable expectation that Chinese capital markets would be able to compensate Russia for the diminished access to financing from Europe and the United States. But with Chinas economic base and global trading role, Beijing has the capacity to change that picture quite rapidly over the coming years. The RMB has already surpassed the euro as the second most used currency in international trade finance (see Figure 3), and is expected to push $1 trillion by the end of 2014. 57 The sanctions on Russia provide additional geopolitical impetus to Chinas moving further forward with a process that 55 Ksenia Galouchko and Elena Mazneva, Putin Turn to China Heralds New Look at Yuan Debt: Russia Credit, Bloomberg, Apr 14, 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-14/putin- turn-to-china-heralds-new-look-at-yuan-debt-russia-credit. html, last accessed May 6, 2014. 56 Robert Kahn, Putins Lehman Moment, Why Sanctions Will Work in Russia, Foreign Affairs, Apr 10, 2014, http://www. foreignaffairs.com/articles/141123/robert-kahn/putins-lehman- moment, last accessed May 6, 2014. 57 Ansuya Harjani, Yuan trade settlement to grow by 50% in 2014: Deutsche Bank, CNBC, Dec 11, 2013, http://www.cnbc. com/id/101263663, last accessed May 6, 2014. The German Marshall Fund of the United States 16 is likely to see the RMB become a major reserve currency, a take-off in RMB-denominated bonds, and a Chinese banking sector that grabs an ever larger share of international business. China already has the means to assist in other ways. Russian banks have been hit by service cut-offs by Visa and Mastercard, which suspended services to SMP Bank, InvestCapital Bank, and Bank Rossiya. While the immediate Russian response was to move forward with plans to establish its own national payments system, 58 another option under discussion is to expand the use of the existing Chinese network, UnionPay, already the third largest payment system in the world. 59
VTB, Russias second largest financial institution, 58 Megan Davies, Russias card plan seen unlikely to repli- cate Chinas UnionPay, Reuters, Apr 4, 2014, http://www. reuters.com/article/2014/04/04/us-russia-cardsystem-idUS- BREA3310Q20140404, last accessed May 6, 2014. 59 Camilla Hall and Kathryn Hille, Visa and MasterCard fear sanctions fallout, The Financial Times, Mar 1, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7a015708-d14b-11e3-bdbb- 00144feabdc0.html#axzz30ZcGOlRH, last accessed May 6, 2014; Guest Post, Making a non-western card payment system, in Russia, The Financial Times, Apr 25, 2014, http://ftalphaville. ft.com/2014/04/25/1837182/guest-post-making-a-non-western- payment-card-system-in-russia/, last accessed May 6, 2014. announced a deal with the Bank of China during Putins visit to develop cooperation on rouble and RMB settlements. 60 China is also watching the debates about SWIFT, the interbank financial messaging network. When Iranian banks access to the system was cut off in 2012, Chinese and Russian banks which are members questioned whether it had become merely a political tool of the West. 61 That view would be roundly confirmed if Russian financial institutions became the next target, potentially resulting in the fragmentation of the system and the loss of a reliable source of intelligence on matters ranging from terrorism to organized crime. Operating alone, Russia does not have the wherewithal to overcome many of the most egregious effects of financial sanctions, and in the short-term, China will not move hastily to set in 60 Michael Pizzi, Russia, China Sign Deal to Bypass U.S. Dollar, Al Jazeera America, May 20, 2014, http://america.aljazeera.com/ articles/2014/5/20/russia-china-bankdeal.html, last accessed May 28 2014. 61 Zarate, Juan, Treasurys War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare, Public Affairs, 2013, Loc 4420/9698 [IPAD 3rd Generation; MD366LL/A version]. Figure 3: Global Currencies as a Percentage of Trade Finance and Payments Source: SWIFT (2014) and Bloomberg News (2013) 40% 32% 9% 2% 0% 17% Currencies as a percent of world payments - March 2014 USD EUR GBP CNY RUB All rest 9% 7% 81% 1% 2% Share of letters of credit and collections October 2013 CNY EUR USD YEN Other Ukraine, Russia, and the China Option 17 Unlike Russia, Beijings underlying strategy hinges on its continuing to shepherd its economic ascent successfully, not throwing its weight around over territorial disputes or ideological crusades. motion changes to the global financial system that would be difficult to reverse. But there is a risk that this will be a tipping point. And the implications, if China decides that its interests are best served by a move toward de-dollarization, extend well beyond the long-term sustainability of the Russia sanctions to encompass the basic architecture of the global economy. The Price of Interdependence Xi Jinpings last stop in Europe was a visit to the institutions of the European Union, the only Chinese head of state ever to do so. In recent years, Beijing had seemed to be backing away from its earlier support for the EU as another pole in a multipolar world, happier to play divide-and-rule and transact the serious business with member states. But for the first time since the failed effort to persuade the Europeans to lift the arms embargo against China, there was a big ask for a Chinese leader in Brussels. The EU and China are in the process of negotiating an investment agreement, but Xi wanted to push reluctant European officials toward committing to the next step free-trade talks. 62 China has grown concerned that it is being left out of the action between the advanced economies, who are busy negotiating Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and major bilateral deals that some EU officials have privately described as an Asia-minus-one strategy. There is even debate in China of using the prospect of joining a post-TPP agreement with the United States and a bilateral deal with the EU as a lever for economic reforms at home, much as WTO accession negotiations functioned during the Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji era. Europes complete lack of interest in entering talks with such a difficult 62 Robin Emmott and Francesco Guarascio, Chinas Xi wins EU pledge to consider free-trade deal, Reuters, Mar 31, 2014, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/31/us-china-eu-idUS- BREA2U15J20140331; last accessed May 6, 2014. economic partner at this stage was evident from the painful language in the joint statement that references willingness to envisage broader ambitions including, once the conditions are right, toward a deep and comprehensive FTA, as a longer term perspective. 63 But Xis agenda provided a marked contrast to the debates underway in the European Council about how to disentangle the European and Russian economies. However challenging the next phase of Chinas economic reforms is, the basic direction including further and deeper integration in the global economy is clear. Unlike Russia, Beijings underlying strategy hinges on its continuing to shepherd its economic ascent successfully, not throwing its weight around over territorial disputes or ideological crusades. Burgeoning Sino-European economic ties may even play a discreet role in helping to stabilize Europes eastern neighborhood if both sides can successfully push ahead with a major set of joint cooperation projects on infrastructure and development in the region. Yet with Putins visit to China this month, Beijings less benign instincts have also been on display. Chinas decision immediately after Obamas ally reassurance tour to make assertive moves in the South China Sea by deploying an oil rig in waters claimed by Vietnam, accompanied by a flotilla of 80 ships, helicopters, and fighter aircraft, caught many analysts, and the Vietnamese themselves, by surprise. Relations between China and Vietnam had been improving and there was no obvious cause for the escalation. 64 It seemed like a probe that was almost designed to underline the most 63 Joint Statement: Deepening the EU-China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for mutual benefit, European External Action Service, Brussels, Mar 31, 2014 140331/02, http:// eeas.europa.eu/statements/docs/2014/140331_02_en.pdf, last accessed May 6, 2014. 64 Demetri Sevastopulo, China U-turn on Vietnam Charm Offensive, Financial Times, May 12, 2014, http://www.ft.com/ intl/cms/s/0/96267a7c-d9bf-11e3-920f-00144feabdc0.html, last accessed May 12, 2014. The German Marshall Fund of the United States 18 difficult questions posed by Russias recent behavior is the United States drawing a red line around its allies and leaving everyone else to their fate, or will the West defend basic international norms in the face of coercion? Does it have effective means to do so short of the use of force? Beijing hopes, and increasingly expects, that the answer to the latter question is no. While it is easy to dismiss the brandishing of a China option in Moscow as little more than a piece of theater, the failure of sanctions to change Russias course of action would be a powerful demonstration that for major non-Western powers, economic interdependence is no fundamental barrier to military assertiveness. China has little interest in seeing Russia successfully destabilize Ukraine, but it does have an incentive to squash any temptation for the West to believe that the threat of economic isolation is a viable form of deterrence. If the purchase of advanced weapons and a few hundred billion dollars worth of cheap gas is all that it takes, so much the better. But the exchanges between China and Russia in the months leading up to Vladimir Putins next scheduled visit to China in November will go well beyond that, and the Ukraine crisis could yet prove to be the catalyst not just for a new European security order, but a post-Western financial order, too. Ukraine, Russia, and the China Option 19 CEE Central and Eastern Europe CNPC China National Petroleum Company ECB European Central Bank EU European Union FTA Free trade agreement G7 Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) G8 Group of Eight (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States; the European Union is represented within the G8 but cannot host or chair summits) IMF International Monetary Fund LNG Liquefied natural gas P5 The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) PLA Peoples Liberation Army of the Peoples Republic of China PRC Peoples Republic of China RMB Renminbi, the official currency of the Peoples Republic of China SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SWIFT Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership TTIP Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership UN United Nations US United States USSR The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WTO World Trade Organization Abbreviations OF F I CE S Washington Berlin Paris Brussels Belgrade Ankara Bucharest Warsaw Tunis www.gmfus.org
PUTIN: The History of the Reign & The Shape-Shifting Strategy: Putin's Early History, Putin's Evolving Anti-Americanism, Putin's Hybrid-authoritarian Machine, Putin's Political Career (Authoritarian Controlled Democracy & Role of Elites), Yeltsin Era