Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • Time Series Simulation Tutorial in Excel

    Uploaded by

    NumXL Pro
    507 views5 pages
    In this tutorial, we’ll demonstrate the steps to construct one 12‐month sales simulation using an ARIMA(5,1,1) model. Next, using the simulated 12‐month (step) values, we’ll compute their median as an example of a target (derived) value. Finally, using the “Run” functionality, NumXL will re‐evaluate the spreadsheet (creating a new simulation path each time) and collect the target values in a separate column in our spreadsheet. Once done, we are left with several potential values for the median of the following 12 sales months and may start analyzing them as we see fit. For more information, example file, tutorial video or download NumXL free trial, visit us at: http://bitly.com/numxl-userguide-simulation

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    In this tutorial, we’ll demonstrate the steps to construct one 12‐month sales simulation using an ARIMA(5,1,1) model. Next, using the simulated 12‐month (step) values, we’ll compute their median as an example of a target (derived) value. Finally, using the “Run” functionality, NumXL will re‐evaluate the spreadsheet (creating a new simulation path each time) and collect the target values in a separate column in our spreadsheet. Once done, we are left with several potential values for the median of the following 12 sales months and may start analyzing them as we see fit. For more information, example file, tutorial video or download NumXL free trial, visit us at: http://bitly.com/numxl-userguide-simulation

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    507 views5 pages

    Time Series Simulation Tutorial in Excel

    Uploaded by

    NumXL Pro
    In this tutorial, we’ll demonstrate the steps to construct one 12‐month sales simulation using an ARIMA(5,1,1) model. Next, using the simulated 12‐month (step) values, we’ll compute their median as an example of a target (derived) value. Finally, using the “Run” functionality, NumXL will re‐evaluate the spreadsheet (creating a new simulation path each time) and collect the target values in a separate column in our spreadsheet. Once done, we are left with several potential values for the median of the following 12 sales months and may start analyzing them as we see fit. For more information, example file, tutorial video or download NumXL free trial, visit us at: http://bitly.com/numxl-userguide-simulation

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 5

    TutorialSimulations 1 SpiderFinancialCorp,2014

    Simulation Tutorial
    Inthistutorial,welldemonstratethestepstoconstructone12monthsalessimulationusingan
    ARIMA(5,1,1)model.Next,usingthesimulated12month(step)values,wellcomputetheirmedianas
    anexampleofatarget(derived)value.Finally,usingtheRunfunctionality,NumXLwillreevaluatethe
    spreadsheet(creatinganewsimulationpatheachtime)andcollectthetargetvaluesinaseparate
    columninourspreadsheet.Oncedone,weareleftwithseveralpotentialvaluesforthemedianofthe
    following12salesmonthsandmaystartanalyzingthemasweseefit.
    (1) Selecttheuppercellofagivenmodeltable.

    (2) LocatetheSimulationiconintheNumXLtoolbar(ormenuinExcel2003)andclickit.

    (3) TheSimulationWizard(dialogbox)appears.Notethatthemodelfieldinthedialogreferences
    theactive(selected)cellinyourworksheet.

    TutorialSimulations 2 SpiderFinancialCorp,2014

    (4) Now,selectthelatest(orthewholeset)observationsinyourinputdata.Inthisexample,we
    chose35observations.

    (5) IntheHorizonfield,wechose12stepsforone12monthsimulationpath.
    (6) Leavetheseedto100.
    (7) IntheOutputRangefield,selectanemptycellinyourworkbooktostorethesimulation
    path.
    (8) ClickOK.

    Wehavenowmanagedtoconstructone12monthsimulationpathforanARIMA(5,1,1)modelandthe
    latestobservationsinourdataset.

    Next,letsassumewewishtocalculateavaluethatusesoneormoreobservationsinthesimulation
    path.Forthistutorial,wewillcomputethemedianofthemonthlysalesforthefollowingyear.Using
    onesimulationpath,wecomputeonlyonevalue.HittingF9willcauseNumXLtogeneratenewvalues
    forthesimulationpath,forcingreevaluation,andthereforegeneratinganewtargetvalue.

    Whatifwewanttouse100simulationpathsandcollectthetargetvalueofeachpath?Wecaninstruct
    theSimulationWizardtogenerate100paths,thencomputethetargetvalueforeachpath.Soundseasy
    enough,butwhatabout10,000simulationpaths?

    TutorialSimulations 3 SpiderFinancialCorp,2014

    Wecanmakethissimplerbygeneratingonesimulationpath,calculatingthetargetvalue,thenusingthe
    RunWizardtomakeNumXLregeneratethesamesimulationpathasmanytimesaswewish.Thenwe
    collectthetargetvalueforeachrunandstorethevaluesinyourworksheet.Herearethesteps:
    (1) Selectanemptycellinyourworksheetwhereyouwishtheoutputtobedisplayed.
    (2) LocatetheRuniconintheNumXLtoolbar(ormenuinExcel2003)andclickit.
    (3) TheSimulationRunWizardpopsup.Bydefault,theoutputreferencestheactive(selected)cell
    inyourworkbook.

    (4) Next,selectthecellforthetargetvalue.
    (5) Now,weneedtodecidetheextentoftherecalculationneededtoevaluatethetargetvalue
    cell.Forourtutorial,wellchooseActiveWorksheet.

    Note:Ifyouareunsureorifthecalculationspansmultipleworksheets,selectcurrent
    workbook.

    TutorialSimulations 4 SpiderFinancialCorp,2014

    (6) Finally,setthenumberofsimulationstoavalue(lessthan30,000)forareasonable
    performance.Wellchoose100(default)forthistutorial.
    (7) ClickOK.
    (8) TheRunWizardgeneratesthevaluesforeachsimulationrun.

    (9) Thecomputedtargetvaluesofthedifferentsimulationrunsarestatisticallyindependent,soyou
    maywishtorunsummarystatistics(e.g.mean,standarddeviation,etc.)orplottheirempirical
    distribution.
    (10) Forthistutorial,wechosetoahistogramplot:

    Runnormalitytest.

    TutorialSimulations 5 SpiderFinancialCorp,2014

    Q1:DoIneedtousetheNumXLsimulationfunctionstousetheRunWizard?
    A:No!IfyouhitF9andyourtargetcellvalueisrefreshed,thenyoucanusetheRunWizardforanytype
    ofsimulation.

    You might also like