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2 arguments Which might significantly impact the stock valuation
Company PSA Statement Explanation(s)/Justification(s)
Industry sector Consumption Cyclical Peugeot is considering alliance PSA is considering a tie‐up with Mitsubishi of Japan. According to La tribune, CEO Phillippe
with Mitsubishi [references Varin is looking closely at a possible alliance with Mitshubishi. The aim is to internationalise
1,2,3] the group. This extension could afford Peugeot to increase its market shares. That could
Market Europe
make senses because the 2 groups are strongly complementary. PSA sells its products
mainly in Europe, while Mitsubishi sells it in Japan and the US. In product terms, Mitsubishi's
strengths lie in mini and large vehicles, whereas, PSA is specialised in midrange vehicles.
Furthermore, PSA and Mitsubishi have already undertaken lots of projects together ( i.e.
Electric car project). Complementarities would make them a good match. Their large
distribution networks could be a real advantage. Both of them could access new markets. ‐‐
> New economies of scales ‐‐> Increase sales and operating margin ‐‐> Increase share's
price. We believe that is not captured in the market price.
Exchange Paris
Ticket UG.PA
Position Long Recent interest rate S&P recently downgraded PSA's credit rating from BBB‐/A‐3 to BB+/B, announcing that
downgrading has to be reviewed PSA's financial profile will not stabilise in line with the BB+ rating before 2011. PSA's rating
[reference 4] cut into junk territory increases significantly borrowing costs. Looking to the capital
structure [Debt ratio 16%], we believe that S&P will upgrade PSA in the next few months.
Decrease borrowing cost ‐‐> Increase share price.
B) Valuation based on your arguments above
C) 2 major Risks /Threats
Statement Explanation(s)/Justification(s)
Negative Free Cash flow Although there is a negative FCF expectation for 2009. We expect that the FCF will not be
lower than the target (EUR1.94bn) estimated. With bad results in emerging countries and
loss of market shares in Brazil, we hope that the loss will remain at the same level.
Losing ground in China PSA has a 4% share in china and valuable distribution foothold in what will soon be the
[reference 6,7] world's largest market. They don't have to loose their shares which represent a real
comparative advantage. Losing share in this area could impact PSA'share price.
Sources (Below indicate the sources used for your analysis)
Statements References (links)
1 PSA is considering Alliance with Mhttp://www.mysinchew.com/node/28963
2 PSA is considering Alliance with MLa Tribune (sept. 4)
3 PSA is considering Alliance with Mhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4235537.stm
4 Peugeot Interest rate downgradin http://www.xe.com/news/2009‐08‐06%2014:22:00.0/597877.htm?c=3&t=
5 Price/Sales ratios http://www.psa‐peugeot‐citroen.com/document/faitchiffre/CA_par_trimestre_en1240844393.pdf
6 Losing ground in china http://www.psa‐peugeot‐citroen.com/fr/psa_groupe/expansion_b2.php
7 Losing ground in china http://www.lesvoitureschinoises.com/20070712154/voitures‐chinoises/PSA‐Peugeot‐Citroen‐va‐investir‐dans‐une‐nouvelle‐usine‐en‐Chine.html
GLG‐Solvay Simulation
2) Oct‐09 NSANY /Peer/ Short
Key information A) Internal analysis
2 arguments Which might significantly impact the stock valuation
Company Nissan Statement Explanation(s)/Justification(s)
Industry sector Consumption Cyclical Expectations of recovery in sales The last couple of months have shown a slowdown in the global auto sales
are too high decline and market expectations are high that the worst is over for the auto industry.
However, a stabilisation in unit sales at low levels will not translate into higher profits, as
overcapacity remains an issue and prices remain under pressure. In addition, many markets
have been heavily supported by government incentives. In the best‐case scenario, these will
continue in 2010, but with a diminishing impact. While Nissan’s relative sales performance in
the first quarter of FY 09 improved compared to last fiscal year’s fourth quarter, total sales
remain weak and have not increased from Q4 levels, according to our estimates. Given that
sales have been supported by government incentives in Japan and Europe between April and
Market Japan
June, we would have expected to see better numbers for these regions.
Exchange Tokyo
Ticket NSANY
Position Short Electric vehicule (EV) production Nissan has announced that it will sell EVs to corporate customers in
not launchable in the medium Japan and the US in 2010, followed by a mass‐market commercial launch in 2012. The
term company has also said that it plans to sell hybrids based on its own technology in Japan by
2011. EVs have become Nissan’s ‘niche’ in the eco‐market, but the potential and the
profitability of these vehicles are questionable, particularly in the short to medium term. As
for hybrids, Nissan will be facing huge competition from already established Japanese,
European and Korean hybrid producers. As a newcomer, we think that it will be extremely
difficult for Nissan to compete on image, technology and pricing.
B) Valuation based on your arguments above
C) 2 major risks /Threats
Sources (Below indicate the sources used for your analysis)
Statements References (links)
Nissan EV http://revengeoftheelectriccar.com/nissan‐promises‐ev‐for‐2010/
Nissan EV http://www.popularmechanics.com/blogs/automotive_news/4276765.html
Nissan results http://www.nissan‐global.com/EN/IR/
GLG‐Solvay Simulation
3) Oct‐09 TSCO.L /SINGLE/ Long
Key information A) External Analysis
1 quantitative argument
Company Tesco Statement Explanation(s)/Justification(s) Chart 1 Tesco share price vs. Food RPI%
Industry sector Consumption Non‐Cyclical more inflation in the next As it can be seen on the chart 1, Tesco's share is significantly affected by marked changes in Correl lead 1Q =63.97%
months [references 1,2,3 & Food alimentation [correlation of 63.97% on the last 5 years]. So inflation might be a threat for
charts 1,2] Tesco' share price ... However...Food inflation has remained higher in the United Kingdom than
the rest of Euro and the US zone because of the sterling's weakness against the Euro and US
(Purchasing power parity theory). Looking forward, we expect more inflation in the rest of
Europe and in the US, no just because is painful for the retail sectors but also because macro
Market Europe conditions [i.e. France and Germany climbed out of technical recession in August ] and consumer
confidence are rebounding. In the meantime, we expect that euro currency and Dollars will
remain stronger than sterling over the next 12 months. ‐‐> with other things the same inflation
will increase in the next few months (PPP theory) >< market anticipation ‐‐> Price is
undervalued.
Exchange London
Ticket TSCO.L
Position Long 1 qualitative argument
Statement Explanation(s)/Justification(s)
Recovery period will favour We believe that UK consumers can not afford to go abroad and to go to the restaurant as it use
food and home goods to be. We think that home retailers (Food and general) will benefit from this business cycle to Chart 2 UK Consumer confidence index
spending [own opinion] improve their revenues. We do believe that during the recovery period the UK consumer will
prefer saving money and spending money in food and Home goods. This is still not integrated in
consensus.
B) Internal Analysis
2 arguments Which might significantly impact the stock valuation
Statement Explanation(s)/Justification(s)
Doubling loyality points Tesco has doubled the loyalty card rewards on 75% of its products (except petrol, tobacco, Tesco
[references 4,5 & image 1] mobile). Tesco has run a successful campaign where customers doubled‐up points on selected
categories over the last three months. This yielded 500,000 new club card members, and over
1.5 million existing Club card holders took advantage of the offer.In the meantime, It has been
given exceptionally wide advertising coverage (lots of banners in the free paper handed out in
the last couple of days). In a sector of high promotional activity, increased retention value (
loyalty) might be a real competitive advantage. Even if this new reward scheme represents an
important cost, It should increase Tesco's market share and and thus improve its sale volumes ,
earnings, and P&L (if its COGS are unchanged ). We believe it is still not fully captured in the
consensus.
image 1
Good customer insights Everybody knows that knowledge is a kind of power. With its loyalty card scheme, Tesco has
[reference 7, 8] collected 15 years of data. Analysis allows Tesco to provide real insights on shopping habits and
very effective targeting of existing and new customers. Building on this insight, Tesco has been
successful in extending its brand into new product and new market. The lost of confidence of
bank's customers is a great opportunity to take market shares for its new financial activities with
analysing deeply its customers insight. We believe that this point is still not fully captured in the
consensus and market share.
C) Valuation
D) 2 major Risks /Threats
Interest rate change As it can be seen on the chart 3, Tesco share's price is relatively influenced by the interest rate
[reference 9 & chart 3] changes [correlation of 48.9%] . Many other factors have an impact on the share price but shifts
in interest rate do influence share performance. As the monetary environment remains highly
simulative, we fear that interest rates will be hiked by The Bank of England during the next 12
months.
Sources (Below indicate the sources used for your analysis)
Statements References (links)
1 RPI% DATA http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDdownload2.asp
2 France and germany out of rec http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1916261,00.html
3 Gfk Datastream
4 Loyality cards http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article‐1206564/Tesco‐steps‐supermarket‐war‐doubling‐loyalty‐card‐points.htm
5 Loyality cards http://www.marketingmagazine.co.uk/news/927616/Industry‐experts‐dissect‐Tescos‐tactic‐doubling‐Clubcard‐points/
6 Good customer insight http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/lessons‐from‐history/tesco‐customer‐insight‐keeps‐food‐retailer‐on‐top.htm
7 Good customer insight http://customer.corante.com/archives/2005/08/07/tesco_triumphs.php
8 UK VAT http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/3521525/Pre‐Budget‐report‐Secret‐plan‐for‐VAT‐increase‐to‐18.5‐per‐cent.html
9 Interest rate DATA http://mortgage‐x.com/general/indexes/default.asp
GLG‐Solvay Simulation
4) Oct‐09 KBC.BR /Single/ Short
Key information A) External Analysis
1 quantitative argument
Company KBC Statement Explanation(s)/Justification(s) Chart 1 Corporate prime
Industry sector Financial Corporate prime is still high Corporate prime is still high, Belgian economic is not recovery yet, interest rate estimation given
and Interest rates are by the forward rate and analysts' forecasts are still very low (0.5% for the ECB rate). As it can be
correlated with the KBC stock seen on the chart 2, KBC share price is significantly driven by the Euribor 3 months. During the
[reference 1, chart 1,2] recovery period, we don't believe that the interests rate will increase. Consequently, KBC share wil
Market Europe probably remain low.
Exchange EBR
Ticket KBC.BR
Position Short 1 qualitative argument
Statement Explanation(s)/Justification(s)
New kind of banks and saving We believe that new kind of banks and account savings have a big future. More and more of non‐
Auction [reference 3, image 1] financial company (i.e. Tesco, Carrefour, Virgin, O2..) proposed to their clients safe saving accounts
with other offers (credits card, insurance, loyalty scheme...). We believe with the crisis and the lack
of confidence in the banking sector that this kind of new activities for the non‐financial companies
can be nefast for Banks. Even if Belgium is not still reached by this kind of new banks, we believe
this alternative will arrive soon . Another threat is the saving auction websites launched this year.
Today, you can auction your cash for maximize your interest. This allows you to get the best rate Chart 2 ` KBC share price vs. Euribor 3m
from a panel of European banks. Increasing competition is good for customers but not for banks
shareholders. ‐‐> This threat is not captured in consensus yet.
B) Internal Analysis
2 arguments Which might significantly impact stock valuation
Statement Explanation(s)/Justification(s)
KBC restructuration is a big KBC will submit a detailed restructuring plan to the European Commission by the end of
shadow [reference 4] September, final approval is not expected before December. This restructuration will take time
and it is difficult to know speed at which KBC will reduce its Risk profile.In a small competitive
market as Belgium where the customers are strongly risk averse,It is difficult to know if customers
will remain loyal or if they will switch to another bank already restructured . This is a big issue
which is still not captured in the share's price.
KBC structured products still KBC has lots of structured products [credit products such as CDO's/ABS and equity products such
exposed [reference 5] as Capped Call]. The vast majority of those products is built with counterparts. It is clear that
futher write‐back with those counterparts would enhance KBC's ability to reimburse state capital
as soon as they pretend. In the meantime, internal risk migrations could lead to an increase in
capital requirements under Basel II, this could force product structured sales at potentially Image Virgin Money website
distressed prices.
C) Valuation
D) 2 major Risks /Threats Image Virgin Money website
Statement Explanation(s)/Justification(s)
Complexity of valuing KBC Owing to the size of its bond portfolio and its financial product portfolio (structured product).
(structured product recovery There is maybe a mispricing in KBC stocks even if we believe the the value of the potential
completely captured) recovery of the value of CDO portfolio is already almost completely factored in.
Sources (Below indicate the sources used for your analysis)
Statements References (links)
1 Euribor 3m http://www.euribor‐rates.eu/euribor‐rate‐3‐months.asp
2 Euro Interest Rate forcast http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/Euro_Interest_Rate_Forecast_1221237471183.html
3 Auction website https://www.maxbips.com/
4 KBC restructuration http://cash.rnews.be/fr/argent‐et‐bourse/nouvelles/kbc‐la‐commission‐europeenne‐veut‐un‐plan‐detaille‐pour‐sa‐restructuration/article‐1194515725681.htm
5 KBC structured product http://www.structuredproductsonline.com/public/showPage.html?page=304405
6 KBC polish units to sell http://www.lecho.be/actualite/entreprises_finance/KBC_envisagerait_de_vendre_ses_activites_d‐assurance_en_Pologne.8209747‐584.ar