9/22/2010

1
Tapioca Industry Chain & Market Forum 2010
Shanghai, CHINA
September 9, 2010
Analysis to Thai Tapioca Market
Content
Introduction to TTSA
Introduction to Thailand Tapioca Industry
Starch industry and market
Chip & Pellet industry and market
Mealy bug outbreak and control update bullet
Relationship between grain/chip import and chip
prices
Relationship among starch, chip and root prices
Estimated Balance sheet of Thailand tapioca
2010/11
9/22/2010
2
Introduction of TTSA
Found in 1976.
Key objective is to grow Thailand tapioca starch
industry.
Almost tapioca starch producers in Thailand are
members of TTSA by volunteer.
4 Honorable members Tapioca experts, academics
76 Ordinary members Tapioca starch processors
70 Associated members Exporters, traders,
machinery/packaging/ equip & tool suppliers and
surveyors.
More info. from www.thaitapiocastarch.org
Introduction of Thailand Tapioca
The world second largest producer of root after
Nigeria.
Approx. 12% of world production.
Approx. total acreage of 1.25 million hectares and
500,000 farmers
The world largest exporter of tapioca products.
Export in 2009/10 will reach 2.6 million tons of starch
and 5.1 million tons of chip & pellet the record high.
Products are recognized by customers in more than 100
countries worldwide
9/22/2010
3
17
18
21
17
23
26
25
30
22
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Million Tons
Thailand Tapioca : Root Production
* 2009/10 and 2010/11 are estimated.
Tapioca Root
Chip/ Pellet
Domestic
8%
Export
32%
Tapioca Starch
Domestic
19%
Export
36%
Ethanol
5%
Thailand Tapioca : Utilization of Root
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4
1.22 1.18
1.13
1.46
1.29
1.45
2.04
1.40
2.42
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Baht/Kg.
Thailand Tapioca: Root Price
Yearly Average Monthly Average
Starch Industry Profile
Number of Starch Mills 78
Production Capacity 23,000 Tons Starch/Day
Domestic Consumption ~1.2 Million Tons Starch/Year
Export ~2.0-2.5 Million Tons Starch/Year
Root Consumption ~15 Million Tons Root/Year
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1.28
1.58
1.76
1.62
2.10
2.36
2.15 2.14
2.65
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.10
1.20
1.20
1.20 1.20
1.20
5.4
6.3
6.4
6.6
6.7
7.1
7.2
7.4
7.6
2.2
2.6
3.3
2.5
3.4
3.6
3.5
4.0
3.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Million Tons
Thailand Tapioca Starch
Capacity & Output & Consumption
Domestic Export Capacity Output
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.9
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
441
503
551
611
637
811
987
816
1,104
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Million USD. Million Tons
Export of Thai Tapioca Starch
Native Quantity Modified Quantity Total Value Native& Modified
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Top 10 Importers of Thai Tapioca Starch in 2009
Native Starch
Quantity
(Tons)
Value
(Million Baht)
Modified
Starch
Quantity
(Tons)
Value
(Million
Baht)
1
CHINA 500,943 4,613 JAPAN 249,894 4,245
2
TAIWAN 313,365 2,756 CHINA 108,940 1,998
3
INDONESIA 241,668 2,280 INDONESIA 67,054 1,226
4
MALAYSIA 188,351 1,674 KOREA,R 42,802 824
5
JAPAN 123,214 1,152 TAIWAN 28,620 487
6
PHILIPPINES 70,027 657 USA 20,710 570
7
SINGAPORE 50,644 468 MALAYSIA 18,727 399
8
BANGLADESH 37,275 317 SOUTH AFRICA 15,982 236
9
KOREA,R 36,893 342 NETHERLANDS 15,759 429
10
USA 31,715 375 INDIA 15,238 228
OTHERS 204,005 2,017 OTHERS 114,851 2,201
ALL COUNTRIES 1,798,100 16,651 ALL COUNTRIES 698,577 12,843
0.61
0.37
0.34
0.31
0.21
0.08 0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
Million USD
Million Tons
Top 10 Importers of Thai Tapioca Starch in 2009
(Total Quantity : Native & Modified)
Quantity Value
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1.18
1.46
1.55
1.36
1.75
1.97
1.84
1.65
2.21
0.11
0.12
0.21
0.25
0.34
0.37
0.31 0.49
0.44
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Million Tons
Export of Thai Tapioca Starch
CHINA VS. ROW
Export to ROW Export to China
Chip & Pellet Industry Profile
Numbers of Drying Yards 700
Numbers of Pelletizers 40
Domestic Consumption <1.0 Million Tons Chip & Pellet /Year
Export 3-5 Million Tons Chip & Pellet/Year
Root Consumption 10-12 Million Tons Root/Year
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Chip Quantity
(Tons)
Value
(Million Baht)
Pellet
Quantity
(Tons)
Value
(Million Baht)
1 CHINA 4,024,048 18,962 CHINA 172,079 704
2 LAO REPUBLIC 179 0.785 KOREA,R 105,925 540
3 SINGAPORE 0.2 0.1 JAPAN 27,257 120
4 NETHERLANDS 17,000 57
5 NEW ZEALAND 8,550 36
6 TAIWAN 434 2.2
7 AUSTRALIA 100 0.4
ALL COUNTRIES 4,024,227 18,963 ALL COUNTRIES 331,345 1,459
Top Importers of Thai Chip & Pellet in 2009
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Million Tons
Tapioca Chip : China Import VS Thailand
Export
China Import Thailand Export
9/22/2010
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1.75
2.16
3.19
3.36
4.44
5.46
1.93
4.73
6.05
1.30
1.61
2.62 2.63
3.51
3.39
1.23
2.80
4.99
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Million Tons
Tapioca Chip : China Import VS Thailand Export
China import Thailand Export
Mealy Bug Outbreak in Thailand
First found in 2007.
The important outbreak was reported
in Q109 covering 50,000 tapioca
hectares.
Repeated outbreak in 2010 extended
rapidly and severely affected the crop
productivity in large scale.
The government program in 2010
failed to control the extended
outbreak. Most chemical treatments
have showed poor results.
2009/10 crop reduced to 22 million
tons vs. 28 million tons originally
forecasted.
Symptom of Tapioca infested by Mealy bugs
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Anagyrus Lopezi was originated in South
America and has been introduced/used to
control Mealy bug successfully in Africa.
Thailand Dept. of Agr. introduced the
parasitic wasp from Benin for the test by
the end of Sep 09.
Rearing technique was studied in parallel.
The test showed promising result and was first released on July 17, 2010
after the environment safety assessment was completed.
It was proven the most effective control measure and the method is practical,
sustainable and cost-effective.
Currently the government agencies and the private sector are accelerating the
massive rearing of wasp for release nationwide.
It is optimistic that 2011/12 crop should be almost back to normal.
Mealy Bug Control Update
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Million Tons
USD/MT.
Price & Volume Relationship
Price : Chinese Corn vs. Thai Chip
China's Tapioca Chip Import Thai Tapioca Chip Export Price Chinese Local Corn Price
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
Percent (USD./MT)
Price Relationship : Starch, Chip & Root
Starch (F.O.B.) Starch RMC Chip (F.O.B) Root Starch content in root
Estimated Balance Sheet of Root 2010/2011
Menu
2009/2010 2010/2011
Root Equiv. Scenerio1 Scenerio2.
Supply 31.7 24.9 21.9
Production 22.0 21.0 18.0
Import 0.6 1.0 1.0
Carry-in 9.1 2.9 2.9
Demand 28.8 23.7 21.0
Starch 15.8 13.5 12.3
Chip & Pellet 11.3 8.5 7.0
Ethanol 1.7 1.7 1.7
Carry-out 2.9 1.2 0.9
Unit : Million Tons.