Tutorial-3 and Tutorial-4

Binomial Distribution

1. Forty percent of business travelers carry either a cell phone or a laptop. In a sample of 15
business travelers.
(a) What is the probability that three have a cell phone or laptop?
(b) What is the probability that 12 of the travelers have neither a cell phone nor a
laptop?
(c) What is the probability that at least three of the travelers have a cell phone or a
laptop?
2. A university found that 20% of its students drop out without completing the introductory
statistics course. Assume that 20 students have registered for the course this quarter.
(a) What is the probability that two or fewer will dropout?
(b) What is the probability that exactly four will dropout?
(c) What is the probability that more than three will dropout?
(d) What is the expected number of withdrawals?
3. A satellite system consists of 4 components and can function adequately if at least 2 of the
4 components are in working condition. If each component is, independently in working
condition with probability 0.6, what is the probability that the system functions
adequately?
4. The phone lines to an airline reservation system are occupied 50% of the time. Assume
that the events that the lines are occupied on successive calls are independent. If 10 calls
are placed to the airline, What is the probability that
(a) for exactly three calls the lines are occupied?
(b) for at least one call the lines are not occupied?
(c) what is the expected number of calls in which the lines are all occupied?
5. With the usual notations, find p for a binomial random variable x, if n=6 and if
9 P (X=1) =P(X=2).
6. The mean and variance of a binomial distribution are 3 and 2 respectively. Find the
probability that the variate takes values.
(i) Less than or equal to 2.
(ii) Greater than or equal to 7.


Poisson Distribution

1. The number of monthly breakdowns of computer is a random variable having Poisson
distribution with mean equal to 1.8. Find the probability that this computer will function
for a month
(a) without a breakdown
(b) with only one breakdown
(c) with atleast one breakdown
2. It is known that the probability of an item produced by a certain machine will be
defective is 0.05. It the produced item are sent to the market in packets of 20, find the
number of packets containing at least, exactly and at most 2 defective items in a
consignment of 1000 packets using (i) binomial distribution and (ii) Poisson
approximation to binomial distribution.
3. It the numbers of telephone calls coming into a telephone exchange between 9.00 a.m.
and 10.00 a.m. and between 10.00 a.m. and 11.00 a.m. are independent and follows
Poisson distributions with parameter 2 and 6 respectively. What is the probability that
more than 5 calls come between 9 a.m. and 11 a.m.?
4. If X and Y are independent Poisson vairates such that P[X=1]=P[X=2] and
P[Y=2]=P[Y=3]. Find
(i) the variance of X-2Y
(ii) P[X=0]
(iii) P[0<Y<5]
5. A contractor purchases a shipment of 100 transistors. It is his policy to test 10 of these
transistors and to keep the shipment only if at least 9 of the 10 are in working condition.
If the shipment contains 20 defective transistors, what is the probability that it will be
kept?




Geometric Distribution

1. Suppose a random variable X has a geometric distribution with a mean of 2.5. Determine
the following probabilities:
(a) P(X=1) (b) P(X<=3) (c) P(X=4) (d) P(X>4)
2. If the probability that an applicant for drivers license will pass the road test on any given
trial is 0.8. What is the probability that he will finally pass the test (a) on the fourth trial
(b) in fewer than 4 trails?
3. A person decides to toss a coin until first head occurs. If the probability of obtaining head
is 0.25. What is the expected number of tosses to get the first head?
4. A lot of TV tube is tested randomly. Testing is done one after another until a defective
tube is found. The number of tubes tested determine whether the lot is accepted or not. If
k be the number such that, the lot is accepted if k or more tubes are tested for the first
defective. Then (i) if k=5 and p=0.1, find the probability of accepting the lot, (ii) what
would be the value of k if we want to be 90% confident of rejecting a lot that has 25%
defective?
5. Identify the distribution with the following M.G.F: M.G.F. (5-4e
t
)
-1
. Find p[X>5] and
mean and variance of the distribution.


Hyper geometric distribution

1. Let a random variable X has probability mass function,
{ } ( ) ( )
. 0
integers. positive are n and M N, re Whe
, min , 0 max , Pr
otherwise
n M x N n M
n
N
x n
M N
x
M
x X
=
+

= =

(i) Construct the graph of probability mass function when
(a) N =6, M =4, n =3. (b) N=6, M =2, n =4.
(ii) Compute the mean of X and Variance of X in part (i).
(iii)Compute the following probabilities,
(a) { } 2 Pr X (b) { } 1 Pr X and (c) { } 2 0 Pr X using parameters given in part (i).
2. Consider a lot consisting of 50 bulbs is inspected by taking at random 10 bulbs and testing
them for defective or non-defective. If the number of defective bulbs in a lot containing
50 bulbs is 10, compute the following probabilities
(i) Pr{The sample of 10 bulbs contains 2 defective bulbs}
(ii) Pr{The sample of 10 bulbs contains at least 2 defective bulbs}
(iii) Pr{The sample of 10 bulbs contains at most 3 defective bulbs}
Further, if the sample of 10 bulbs contains at most 1 defective bulbs, the lot containing 50
bulbs is accepted, otherwise it is rejected. Compute the probability that the lot containing
50 bulbs is accepted.
3. Consider a lot consisting of 1000 bulbs is inspected by taking at random 10 bulbs and testing
them for defective or non-defective. If the proportion of defective bulbs in a lot
containing 1000 bulbs is 0.06, compute the probabilities stated in example 2. State the
approximation used in computing these probabilities.
4. Use Q. 5 of PD. Use HGD to answer the question.
5. The environment protection agency has purchased 40 precision instruments to be used to
measure the air pollution at various locations. 8 of these are randomly selected and tested
for defects. If 4 of the 40 instruments are defective, what is the probability that the
sample will contain not more than one defective? Use BD approximation to find the same
probability and compare. Also the PD approximation to BD and get the results.









Answers


Binomial distribution

1. Let X: travelers having cell phone or laptop. Then ) . , ( ~ 4 0 15 BD X
(a) P(X=3)=
12 3
4 4
3
15
) (. ) (.

(b) P(X=12)=
3 12
4 6
12
15
) (. ) (.

(c) P(X>=1)=1-P(X=0)
2. Let X: Drop out students. Then ) . , ( ~ 2 0 20 BD X .
(a) P(X<2)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)=
20
8) (. +
19
8 2 20 ) )(. (. (b) P(X=4)=
16 4
8 2
4
20
) (. ) (.

(c) P(X>3)=1-[P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)] (d) E(X)=4
3. Let X: number of components. Then ) . , ( ~ 6 0 4 BD X .
The required probability is P(X>=2)=P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)
4. Let X: lines are occupied. Then ) . , ( ~ 5 0 10 BD X
(a)
7 3
5 5
3
10
3 ) (. ) (. ) (

= = X P (b) ) ( ) ( 0 1 1 = = X P X P (c) E(X)=5

5. p=18/23
6. Given np=3 and np(1-p)=2. Solving we get p=1/3 and n=9. Now (i) and (ii) can be easily
found.


Poisson distribution

1. Let X: number of monthly breakdowns and =1.8.
(a) P(X=0)=
8 1.
e , (b) P(X=1)=
8 1
8 1
.
* .

e ((c) P(X>=1)=1-P(X=0)
2. Let X:the item is defective. Then given p=0.05 and n=20. Now
(i) According to BD, the number of defective items are 1000*P(X>=2), 1000*P(X=2)
and 1000*P(X<=2). And (ii) according to PD, =np=1, the number of defective items in
the consignment are 1000*P(X>=2), 1000*P(X=2) and 1000*P(X<=2).
3. X: number of calls during 9am-10am and Y: number of calls during 10am-11am. Then
) ( ~ 2 PD X and ) ( ~ 6 PD X . Since X and Y are independent ) ( ~ 8 PD Y X + . The required
probability is P(X+Y>5).
4. Solving P(X=1)=P(X=2), we get =2 and solving P(Y=2)=P(Y=3), we get =3. Therefore,
) ( ~ 2 PD X and ) ( ~ 3 PD Y . Therefore, ) ( ~ 5 PD Y X + . Now
(i) V(X-2Y)=V(X)+4V(Y)-2COV(X,Y) =14
5. p =20/100 =0.2, n=10, Required probability =P(X>=9) =P(X=9)+P(X=10)


Geometric distribution

1.Given q/p=2.5. Then p=1/3.5. Then (a), (b), (c), and (d) follows
2. Let X: pass the test.Then p=0.8, (a) P(X=4)=(.8)(.2)
3
and (b) P(X<=3)
3. Given p=0.25, to find E(X)=q/p=3.
4. Let X: be the number of tubes tested to get first defective.
(i) k=5, p=0.1, then to find P(x>=5)=0.6561
(ii) p=0.25 and P(X<k)=0.9, solving we get k=9.
5. E(X)=q/p= 20 4 4
2
0
= = = =
=
p q X V p q t M
dt
d
t x
/ ) ( , )| ( . Hence p=1/5 and q=4/5. Therefore,
P(X>5)=1-P(X<=4) can be easily found.

Hypergeometric distribution

1. (ii) (a) E(X)=0.5, V(X)=0.4, (b) E(X)=1.33, V(X)=0.355
(iii) (a) { } 2 Pr X =1- { } 1 X Pr , (c) { } ) ( ) ( ) ( Pr 2 1 0 2 0 = + = + = = X P X P X P X
2. Given N=50, M=10, n=10. (i) P(X=2)=

10
50
8
40
2
10
/ , (ii) { } 2 X Pr , (iii) { } 3 X Pr . The
lot is accepted if { } 1 X Pr .
3. Use BD assumption. P=0.06, (i) P(X=2)=
8 2
94 06
2
10
) (. ) (.

, Similarly (ii) { } 2 X Pr ,
(iii) { } 3 X Pr . The lot is accepted if { } 1 X Pr .
4. Given N=100, M=20, n=10. To find
P(X>=10)=P(X=9)+P(x=10)=

10
100
10
20
10
100
1
80
9
20
/ /
5. Given N=40, M=4, n=8. To find P(X<=1)=0.828. Using BD, the probability is 0.813.
Using PD the probability is 0.809.