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Myanmar Briefing Note No. 8

22 October 2011

Burmese Mythology

While there are those pundits who couldn't wait to proclaim that absolutely nothing had changed in
Myanmar in the wake of the November 2010 elections, even they have in recent weeks been obliged
to acknowledge that much has happened which they had not expected. But they take solace in their
conviction that such changes as have occurred are only skin deep, window dressing, cosmetic, even
illusory.

The pace of events is such, however, that UN Special Rapporteur Toms Ojea Quintana's mid-
September report to the UN General Assembly has already been followed by an amnesty which has
included prisoners of conscience, the suspension of the Myitsone Dam project on The Irrawaddy
which has had implications for relations with China, and the passing into law of a new Labour
Association Act which allows the establishment of trade unions and recognises the right to strike.

In these circumstances, we should not be surprised that credit for what is now happening in
Myanmar is already been sought in the wider world. Australia has already staked a claim, following
Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd's visit in July. "Australia has done much to promote change in Burma;
we are the second-largest aid donor and have been in the vanguard of the policy of constructive
engagement now bearing fruit," declared 'The Australian' in an editorial on 18 October. This might
surprise the countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations who rather thought they were
the architects of constructive engagement.

For those avenging angels Human Rights Watch, Washington Director Tom Malinowski argued in a
discussion recently hosted by The Heritage Foundation that no laws had changed and no institutions
had yet been reformed, but that if and when reforms did come, they would "vindicate the policies
that the U.S. has pursued", but he also cautiously reminded the audience that there is still "a beast
of a regime" that is not going to "voluntarily negotiate its powers and privileges without a struggle."

For some, then, the changes in Myanmar are due to their enlightened engagement. For others,
serious reform has yet to come, but if and when it does, it will be because of their resolute policies
of economic and political pressure. But can we all seriously claim equal justification for our so
divergent policies?

The reality is that changes are occurring in Myanmar because the new administration has willed this,
not because they have been compelled to reform. Against strong Western opposition, the former
State Peace and Development Council pushed through remorselessly the fourth, fifth and sixth
stages of their seven-stage political Road Map, namely, the Referendum on the 2008 Constitution,
the Elections on 7 November 2010 and the convening of the Assemblies on 31 January 2011. From
this position of strength, the new administration can go ahead as fast as it dare with the seventh
stage which is "to build a modern, developed and democratic nation".

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The Government knows where its best interests lie and it has certain goals to achieve, which are
rather more substantive than just hosting the 2013 Asian Games, taking the ASEAN chair in 2014 and
winning the 2015 elections, important as these particular interests are. None of them, even taken
together, is as vital as the Government's awareness of the need to assure the security and stability of
the State.

We are at the same time witnessing a long overdue challenge to many of the myths about Myanmar
which have grown up over the years. Most of us have accepted uncritically that there were some
2,000 'prisoners of conscience' as defined by Amnesty International, a phrase which is now in use in
the Burmese press and even by officials. It would now seem that there may be no more than 600-
700 such prisoners after all, and that just short of half of these could have been released under the
recent amnesty.

Even UN Special Rapporteur Toms Ojea Quintana is not immune, for he refers in paragraph 13 of
his latest report to the creation of a non-existent, activist-inspired supra-constitutional "Supreme
State Council".

The only safe bet whenever you come across an article about Myanmar is to challenge every word
you read.


Derek Tonkin
Chairman - Network Myanmar
www.networkmyanmar.org