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Liner Research Services
TOC Container Supply Chain : Asia
8 April 2014
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
EPISODE I THE LINER WARS (2009-10)
EPISODE II THE MAERSK EMPIRE STRIKES BACK (2011-13)
EPISODE III RETURN OF THE LINER ALLIANCES (2014-16)
Page 1
Not too long ago, in a galaxy far, far away
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
EPISODE I THE LINER WARS (2009-10)
EPISODE II THE MAERSK EMPIRE STRIKES BACK (2011-13)
EPISODE III RETURN OF THE LINER ALLIANCES (2014-16)
Page 2
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
EPISODE I THE LINER WARS (2009-10)
EPISODE II THE MAERSK EMPIRE STRIKES BACK (2011-13)
EPISODE III RETURN OF THE LINER ALLIANCES (2014-16)
Page 3
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
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TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services Page 4
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
Protracted warfare in the new Alliance era
Page 5
2014-2015 new containership deliveries continue at record pace
Average
= 315,000 teu
Average
= 345,000 teu
Average
= 360,000/470,000 teu
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
The inter-Alliance arms race in 2014
Page 6
2014 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
Maersk - 1 - 9
MSC - - 3 2
CMA CGM - 1 8 -
P3 Total - 2 11 11
APL - - 6 2
HMM - - - 5
MOL - - 1 6
H-L 1 - - 3
NYK - - - -
OOCL - - 2 2
G6 Total 1 - 9 18
COSCO - - - 4
K Line - - - -
YM - 4 1 -
Hanjin - 1 - 5
Evergreen - - 10 8
CKYHE Total - 5 11 17
CSCL - - - 10
CSAV - - 2 -
Hamburg Sud - 4 10 -
PIL - 7 - -
UASC - - 2 1
Independents Total - 11 14 11
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
The arms race to continue in 2015
Page 7
2015 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
Maersk - - - 7
MSC - - 17 10
CMA CGM 3 - 13 6
P3 Total 3 - 30 23
APL - - - -
HMM - - - -
MOL - - - 6
H-L - - - -
NYK - - - -
OOCL - - 2 -
G6 Total - - 2 6
COSCO - - - -
K Line - - - 5
YM - 1 - 10
Hanjin - - 1 2
Evergreen - - 3 -
CKYHE Total - 1 4 17
CSCL - - - 3
CSAV - - 6 -
Hamburg Sud - - - 1
PIL - 6 - -
UASC - - - 12
Independents Total - 6 6 16
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer
Page 8
Cost savings is a key consideration for the formation of the new mega-Alliances
But strategic aim of keeping key competitors in check is also a major objective
2014 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
Maersk - 2 - 9
MSC - - 3 2
CMA CGM - 1 8 -
P3 Total - 2 11 11
2015 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
Maersk 0 0 0 7
MSC 0 0 17 10
CMA CGM 3 0 8 6
P3 Total 3 0 25 23
2015 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
Maersk - - - 7
MSC - - 17 10
CMA CGM 3 - 8 6
P3 Total 3 - 30 23
2015 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
Maersk 0 0 0 7
MSC 0 0 17 10
CMA CGM 3 0 8 6
P3 Total 3 0 25 23
2016 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
Maersk - - - -
MSC - - 8 -
CMA CGM - - 7 -
P3 Total - - 15 -
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
If you cant beat them, join them
Page 9
2014 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
COSCO - - - 4
K Line - - - -
YM - 4 1 -
Hanjin - 1 - 5
Evergreen - - 10 8
CKYHE Total - 5 11 17
2015 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
Maersk 0 0 0 7
MSC 0 0 17 10
CMA CGM 3 0 8 6
P3 Total 3 0 25 23
APL 0 0 0 0
HMM 0 0 0 2
2015 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
COSCO - - - -
K Line - - - 5
YM - 1 - 10
Hanjin - - 1 2
Evergreen - - 3 -
CKYHE Total - 1 4 17
2015 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
Maersk 0 0 0 7
MSC 0 0 17 10
CMA CGM 3 0 8 6
P3 Total 3 0 25 23
APL 0 0 0 0
HMM 0 0 0 2
2016 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
COSCO - - 3 -
K Line - - - -
YM - - - 5
Hanjin - - 4 -
Evergreen - - - 10
CKYHE Total - 1 4 17
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
What happens when you run out of ammunition?
Page 10
2014 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
APL - - 6 2
HMM - - - 5
MOL - - 1 6
H-L 1 - - 3
NYK - - - -
OOCL - - 2 2
G6 Total 1 - 9 18
2015 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
APL - - - -
HMM - - - -
MOL - - - 6
H-L - - - -
NYK - - - -
OOCL - - 2 -
G6 Total - - 2 6
2016 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
APL - - - -
HMM - - - 6
MOL - - - -
H-L - - - -
NYK - - - -
OOCL - - - -
G6 Total - - - 6
The G6 carriers will need
to order more ships
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
Independents show no signs of giving up
Page 11
First 18,000 teus for CSCL
due in 2014;
11 units for CSCL + UASC by
2016
2014 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
CSCL - - - 10
CSAV - - 2 -
Hamburg Sud - 4 10 -
PIL - 7 - -
UASC - - 2 1
Independents Total - 11 14 11
2015 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
CSCL - - - 3
CSAV - - 6 -
Hamburg Sud - - - 1
PIL - - - -
UASC - - - 12
Independents Total - - 6 16
2016 Deliveries
< 3,000
TEU
3,000-
6,000 TEU
6,000-
10,000 TEU
> 10,000
TEU
CSCL - - - -
CSAV - - - -
Hamburg Sud - - - 2
PIL - - - -
UASC - - - 4
Independents Total - - - 6
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
4 Alliance groups, 19 competing carriers
Page 12
Stiff competition remains on
main trades, despite the
formation of the mega-Alliances

FE-Europe Capacity Deployed by Carrier/Alliance :
Feb 2014

P3 carriers emerged as clear winner in Great Battle of 2013
But laggard carriers are not giving up!
Formation of Alliances does not
constitute consolidation
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ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
War of attrition not achieving its goals
Page 13
a strategy in which a belligerent side attempts to win a war by wearing down its enemy
to the point of collapse through continuous losses in resources and materiel

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Fleet as at Feb 2014
Fleet as at Jan 2009
No major carrier exits
since 2009
19 of Top 20 registered
capacity increases
Average 5 year growth
rate of 40% or 7% CAGR
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
Alliance armies are (almost) evenly matched
Page 14
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
AE-10
FAL 1/AEC 2
Silk
Lion
AE-2
AE-6
AE-1
FAL 3
AE-7
Lp 4
Lp 5
Lp 7
Lp 6
Lp 1
NE 3
NE 6
CEM
NE 7
NE 2
CES
AEX 7/AEC 8/FAL 2
AEX 1
FE-North Europe Services Breakdown (Feb 2014) : Ave. TEU per week
P3
Maersk
CMA CGM / UASC
MSC
MSC
Maersk
Maersk
Maersk
CMA CGM
Maersk
G6
H-L / NYK / OOCL / APL / MOL / HMM
H-L / NYK / OOCL / APL / MOL / HMM
H-L / NYK / OOCL / APL / MOL / HMM
H-L / NYK / OOCL / APL / MOL / HMM
H-L / NYK / OOCL / APL / MOL / HMM
CKYHE
COSCO / Hanjin / K Line / Yang Ming
Hanjin / K Line / Yang Ming / COSCO
Evergreen
COSCO / Hanjin / K Line / Yang Ming
K Line / Yang Ming
Evergreen
Independents
CSCL / UASC / CMA CGM
CSCL / Zim
P3
Average Size : 11,600 TEU
G6
Average Size : 11,300 TEU
CKYHE
Average Size : 10,300 TEU
Independents
Average Size : 11,200 TEU
P3 will reduce number of FE-N Eur
strings from 9 to 8 weekly sailings,
with no change in total capacity
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
But P3 retains significant size advantage in some
arenas
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Dragon
AE-11/MEX 1
Tiger
AE-20/MEX 3
AE-3/BEX
AE-12/BEX 2
Lp 8
MD 2
MD 1
FEM
MD 3
AMC-1/AMX 1
ABX
EMX
AME
FE-Mediterranean Services Breakdown (Feb 2014) : Ave. TEU per week
Page 15
P3
Average Size : 10,350 TEU
G6
Average Size : 8,200 TEU
CKYHE
Average Size : 7,100 TEU
Independents
Average Size : 5,150 TEU
P3
MSC
Maersk / CMA CGM
MSC
Maersk / CMA CGM
Maersk / CMA CGM
Maersk / CMA CGM
G6
H-L / NYK / OOCL / APL / MOL / HMM
CKYHE
K Line / Yang Ming
COSCO / K Line / Yang Ming / Hanjin
Evergreen
COSCO / K Line / Yang Ming / Hanjin
Independents
UASC / CSCL
CSCL / K Line / Yang Ming / PIL / Wan Hai
Zim / OOCL
Zim
P3 will reduce number of FE-Med
strings from 6 to 5 weekly sailings,
with minimal change in total capacity
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
Skirmishes getting more frequent
Page 16
-500
0
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$
/
T
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Gross FE-N Eur Freight Rate $/teu Base Freight - net of BAF
SSEFC Forward Curve
Successful GRI

Unsuccessful GRI
Announced
GRI/PSS
2009
$/teu
1 Apr 09 250
1 Jul 09 300
1 Aug 09 150 PSS
15 Aug 09 250 PSS
1 Oct 09 250
1 Nov 09 150
1 Dec 09 250


























Announced
GRI/PSS
2010
$/teu
15 Jan 10 250
1 Mar 10 250
1 Apr 10 250
15 Jul 10 250 PSS
1 Aug 10 750/1,000
Announced
GRI/PSS
2011
$/teu
1 Jan 11 250
1 Jun 11 250
1 Jul 11 250
1 Sep 11 250
26 Dec 11 200
Announced
GRI/PSS
2012
$/teu
1 Mar 12 775
1 Apr 12 400
1 May 12 400
1 Jun 12 350 PSS
15 Jun 12 350 PSS
1 Aug 12 250
1 Nov 12 500
15 Dec 12 550
Announced
GRI/PSS
2013
$/teu
10 Jan 13 350
15 Mar 13 600
15 Apr 13 500
1 May 13 500
1 Jul 13 950
1 Aug 13 300
1 Sep 13 400
1 Nov 13 950
15 Dec 13 750




FE-North Europe Spot Freight Rates & GRIs Announced (Maersk) : 2009-2014




Announced
GRI/PSS
2014
$/teu
6 Jan 14 250
1 Apr 14 525


ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
Fighting has spread to the outer regions
Page 17
Main trades are only half the story






Emerging markets coming under pressure
ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
Removal of old droids not keeping pace with new troopers
Page 18






ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
Liner Research Services Alphaliner/Liner Research Services 1999-2014 Contents not to be reproduced without permission
TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
Peace is not upon us
Page 19
CSAV/Hapag-Lloyd : Significant hurdles still to be cleared, merger benefits not
apparent
COSCO/CSCL : Pact a politically driven half measure, doesnt help either party
Hanjin/HMM : Selling family silver, but holding on to container assets
Zim : Debtors pay price, but no exit from container shipping
NYK/MOL/KL : Held back in last few years, MOL has just committed to Seaspan
charters while NYK will need to order new tonnage soon
Evergreen : Sticking to its guns new capacity injections will disturb market
UASC : 14,000/18,000 teu orders even more aggressive expansion ahead
Hamburg Sud/PIL : defending niche markets
APL/OOCL : running out of ideas; could corporate action be imminent?
MSC/CMA CGM : massive fleet rebuilding with 9,000/18,000 teu orders
Maersk how will it react?
Expect Liner Wars to last until 2016 if capacity build up cannot be curbed this year



ALPHALINER LINER WARS TRILOGY
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TOC Asia : April 2014 Alphaliner Liner Research Services
End

Please send any queries to hjtan@liner-research.com
Page 20
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