China Trade balance and Outlook

by Eduardo Petazze
Last updated: January 13, 2016
In 2015 foreign trade in mainland China fell -8.0% from +3.5% growth in 2014.
By 2016 it is estimated that China's foreign trade will decline -8.7% (our previous estimate -9.7%) and -10.1% in 2017

Monthly series
General Administration of Customs monthly release the foreign trade situation.
The following summary is based on the historical data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, and last month from the Customs data.
Our estimate for 2016 / 2017 and seasonally adjusted data is included.

million Import and export

USD
Annual
Y/Y
2001
510,228
7.57%
2002
620,945 21.70%
2003
851,568 37.14%
2004
1,154,458 35.57%
2005
1,422,549 23.22%
2006
1,761,118 23.80%
2007
2,174,417 23.47%
2008
2,560,785 17.77%
2009
2,205,824 -13.86%
2010
2,972,356 34.75%
2011
3,640,711 22.49%
2012
3,867,453
6.23%
2013
4,159,963
7.56%
2014
4,306,327
3.52%
2015
3,963,536 -7.96%
2016
3,620,500 -8.65%
2017
3,255,682 -10.08%
Latest data
Own estimate
million Import and export
USD
Month
Y/Y
Dec-14
405,413
3.99%
Jan-15
340,484 -10.96%
Feb-15
277,762 10.58%
Mar-15
286,056 -13.97%
Apr-15
318,527 -11.18%
May-15
321,248 -9.51%
Jun-15
337,412 -1.35%
Jul-15
347,168 -8.27%
Aug-15
333,497 -9.15%
Sep-15
350,767 -11.51%
Oct-15
323,148 -12.27%
Nov-15
339,182 -8.04%
Dec-15
388,284 -4.23%
Jan-16
312,076 -8.34%
Feb-16
259,498 -6.58%
Mar-16
255,167 -10.80%
Latest data
Own estimate

Annual data, NSA

Exports
Annual
Y/Y
266,661
6.99%
325,642 22.12%
438,473 34.65%
593,647 35.39%
762,327 28.41%
969,325 27.15%
1,218,155 25.67%
1,428,869 17.30%
1,201,948 -15.88%
1,578,447 31.32%
1,899,281 20.33%
2,050,109
7.94%
2,210,662
7.83%
2,343,222
6.00%
2,282,948 -2.57%
2,184,072 -4.33%
2,072,218 -5.12%

Monthly data, NSA

Exports
Month
Y/Y
227,513
9.52%
200,258 -3.32%
169,191 48.29%
144,569 -15.01%
176,331 -6.48%
190,058 -2.77%
191,975
2.78%
195,097 -8.36%
196,868 -5.56%
205,555 -3.81%
192,396 -7.00%
196,463 -7.18%
224,189 -1.46%
192,752 -3.75%
167,011 -1.29%
135,158 -6.51%

Balance
Annual
23,094
30,339
25,377
32,836
102,105
177,531
261,894
296,954
198,071
184,537
157,851
232,765
261,362
380,117
602,360
747,643
888,754

Annual data, SA (own estimate)

Exports
Imports
Annual
Y/Y
Annual
Y/Y
266,661
6.99%
243,567
8.21%
325,642 22.12%
295,303 21.24%
438,473 34.65%
413,096 39.89%
593,647 35.39%
560,811 35.76%
762,327 28.41%
660,222 17.73%
969,325 27.15%
791,794 19.93%
1,218,155 25.67%
956,261 20.77%
1,428,869 17.30% 1,131,916 18.37%
1,201,948 -15.88% 1,003,876 -11.31%
1,578,447 31.32% 1,393,909 38.85%
1,899,281 20.33% 1,741,430 24.93%
2,050,109
7.94% 1,817,344
4.36%
2,210,662
7.83% 1,949,300
7.26%
2,343,222
6.00% 1,963,105
0.71%
2,282,948 -2.57% 1,680,588 -14.39%
2,184,072 -4.33% 1,436,428 -14.53%
2,072,218 -5.12% 1,183,464 -17.61%

Imports
Balance
Month
Y/Y
Month
177,901 -2.31% 49,612
140,226 -19.99% 60,032
108,572 -20.80% 60,619
141,487 -12.88%
3,081
142,196 -16.40% 34,134
131,190 -17.78% 58,867
145,437 -6.31% 46,539
152,072 -8.16% 43,025
136,629 -13.87% 60,240
145,213 -20.53% 60,342
130,752 -19.02% 61,643
142,718 -9.20% 53,745
164,096 -7.76% 60,093
119,324 -14.91% 73,428
92,488 -14.81% 74,523
120,009 -15.18% 15,148

Monthly data, SAAR (own estimate)

Exports
Imports
Month
M/M
Month
M/M
2,385,547 -0.42% 1,834,858
0.37%
2,285,827 -4.18% 1,744,633 -4.92%
2,610,013 14.18% 1,738,241 -0.37%
2,204,740 -15.53% 1,761,017
1.31%
2,260,437
2.53% 1,709,515 -2.92%
2,282,213
0.96% 1,690,397 -1.12%
2,321,500
1.72% 1,736,691
2.74%
2,229,939 -3.94% 1,708,499 -1.62%
2,246,853
0.76% 1,665,414 -2.52%
2,254,503
0.34% 1,590,821 -4.48%
2,227,580 -1.19% 1,592,207
0.09%
2,217,564 -0.45% 1,624,482
2.03%
2,254,207
1.65% 1,605,136 -1.19%
2,229,300 -1.10% 1,555,888 -3.07%
2,221,360 -0.36% 1,532,881 -1.48%
2,212,284 -0.41% 1,514,479 -1.20%

Imports
Annual
Y/Y
243,567
8.21%
295,303 21.24%
413,096 39.89%
560,811 35.76%
660,222 17.73%
791,794 19.93%
956,261 20.77%
1,131,916 18.37%
1,003,876 -11.31%
1,393,909 38.85%
1,741,430 24.93%
1,817,344
4.36%
1,949,300
7.26%
1,963,105
0.71%
1,680,588 -14.39%
1,436,428 -14.53%
1,183,464 -17.61%

Trade by country, last month published, in thousands of dollars (Customs data)

(1,000) USD
1 USD = RMB
TOTAL
Hong Kong
India
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
ASEAN
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Other ASEAN
European Union
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Italy
Netherlands
Other EU
The Russian Federation
South Africa
Brazil
Canada
United States
Australia
New Zealand
Other

Import and export

Export
Import
2015 YoY (%)
Dec15
2015
Dec15
2015
Dec15
2015
Trade Exports Imports
6.3759
6.2104
6.3735
6.2092
6.3793
6.2121
1.06
1.05
1.07
388,284,494 3,958,643,944 224,188,635 2,276,574,201 164,095,859 1,682,069,743
-7.97
-2.83
-14.13
48,186,192
344,334,459 46,022,998
331,567,214
2,163,195
12,767,245
-8.33
-8.67
1.24
6,430,778
71,636,947
5,184,880
58,254,226
1,245,897
13,382,720
1.48
7.42
-18.19
25,471,788
278,664,107 11,939,575
135,677,081 13,532,214
142,987,025
-10.78
-9.22
-12.22
25,747,952
275,899,068
9,303,598
101,380,876 16,444,354
174,518,192
-5.01
1.01
-8.19
18,432,753
188,560,129
3,958,050
44,904,912 14,474,703
143,655,216
-4.91
-2.99
-5.49
45,154,386
472,160,235 26,745,298
277,695,938 18,409,088
194,464,297
-1.69
2.09
-6.61
4,901,885
54,238,116
2,976,362
34,349,905
1,925,524
19,888,211
-14.64
-12.06
-18.76
9,225,684
97,359,773
3,842,565
44,059,496
5,383,119
53,300,277
-4.56
-4.94
-4.24
4,228,855
45,661,637
2,514,278
26,685,495
1,714,577
18,976,142
2.70
13.70
-9.60
7,517,418
79,668,716
5,306,417
52,112,275
2,211,001
27,556,441
-0.10
6.50
-10.60
6,979,584
75,477,717
3,437,377
38,308,203
3,542,208
37,169,514
3.92
11.68
-3.02
9,218,974
95,818,729
6,830,446
66,142,775
2,388,528
29,675,954
14.59
3.81
49.11
3,081,986
23,935,547
1,837,853
16,037,789
1,244,131
7,897,758
-30.11
-0.97
-56.25
54,724,684
564,851,903 35,181,046
355,972,958 19,543,638
208,878,945
-8.19
-4.02
-14.51
8,240,872
78,538,784
6,349,397
59,602,157
1,891,476
18,936,627
-2.89
4.29
-20.20
14,659,282
156,798,292
6,821,954
69,175,517
7,837,328
87,622,775
-11.81
-4.89
-16.59
5,169,803
51,423,233
2,669,816
26,766,223
2,499,987
24,657,010
-7.78
-6.72
-8.92
4,465,446
44,692,847
2,836,636
27,837,855
1,628,810
16,854,992
-6.99
-3.21
-12.61
6,411,193
68,270,010
5,580,721
59,477,568
830,472
8,792,442
-8.09
-8.41
-5.91
15,778,088
165,128,737 10,922,522
113,113,638
4,855,565
52,015,099
-7.46
-4.62
-13.10
6,643,136
68,065,148
3,605,550
34,801,392
3,037,587
33,263,756
-28.58
-35.21
-20.02
5,143,374
46,049,097
1,173,089
15,866,965
3,970,284
30,182,132
-23.60
1.10
-32.30
5,580,387
71,597,391
2,056,822
27,430,524
3,523,565
44,166,867
-17.29
-21.41
-14.51
5,184,868
55,694,419
2,598,398
29,442,599
2,586,470
26,251,820
0.89
-1.89
4.21
51,115,296
558,385,058 35,268,157
409,648,334 15,847,139
148,736,724
0.58
3.42
-6.48
9,852,869
113,979,698
3,693,471
40,336,987
6,159,398
73,642,711
-16.70
3.00
-24.60
961,809
11,506,626
474,983
4,922,722
486,827
6,583,904
-19.19
3.89
-30.71
79,654,222
837,259,659 36,982,720
408,671,473 42,671,500
428,588,189
-12.35
-0.87
-21.07

Trade by country, last month published, in ten thousand yuan (Customs data)
(10,000) RMB
TOTAL
Hong Kong
India
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
ASEAN
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Other ASEAN
European Union
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Italy
Netherlands
Other EU
The Russian Federation
South Africa
Brazil
Canada
United States
Australia
New Zealand
Other

Import and export

Export
Import
2015 YoY (%)
Dec15
2015
Dec15
2015
Dec15
2015
Trade Exports Imports
247,567,765 2,458,489,971 142,886,284 1,413,569,127 104,681,480 1,044,920,844
-7.00
-1.80
-13.20
30,710,622
214,307,097 29,330,526
206,339,900
1,380,097
7,967,197
-7.13
-7.47
2.83
4,096,669
44,442,411
3,301,802
36,131,767
794,868
8,310,644
2.52
8.47
-17.22
16,228,184
173,063,096
7,607,598
84,248,793
8,620,586
88,814,303
-9.91
-8.29
-11.39
16,412,633
171,428,097
5,927,026
62,959,565 10,485,607
108,468,532
-3.89
2.19
-7.11
11,750,802
117,113,330
2,521,170
27,858,011
9,229,632
89,255,319
-3.82
-1.98
-4.38
28,787,650
293,173,887 17,047,970
172,339,099 11,739,680
120,834,788
-0.61
3.11
-5.49
3,124,297
33,641,365
1,896,409
21,293,334
1,227,888
12,348,030
-13.77
-11.23
-17.83
5,881,522
60,399,158
2,449,011
27,308,336
3,432,511
33,090,822
-3.60
-4.10
-3.20
2,695,277
28,362,811
1,602,035
16,581,804
1,093,242
11,781,007
3.88
15.02
-8.58
4,790,227
49,455,260
3,380,360
32,360,508
1,409,867
17,094,752
0.99
7.71
-9.69
4,449,972
46,876,114
2,190,910
23,793,549
2,259,062
23,082,565
5.12
12.98
-1.92
5,880,630
59,559,455
4,357,463
41,039,220
1,523,167
18,520,236
15.91
4.80
51.49
1,965,725
14,879,724
1,171,782
9,962,348
793,943
4,917,376
-29.34
-0.30
-55.56
34,944,333
350,872,503 22,439,057
221,026,583 12,505,276
129,845,920
-7.21
-2.99
-13.59
5,257,064
48,778,824
4,048,358
37,031,497
1,208,706
11,747,327
-1.80
5.50
-19.40
9,373,966
97,425,131
4,352,802
42,939,295
5,021,165
54,485,836
-10.92
-3.88
-15.78
3,299,958
31,959,769
1,702,918
16,612,697
1,597,040
15,347,071
-6.79
-5.81
-7.81
2,852,855
27,753,142
1,810,343
17,277,833
1,042,512
10,475,309
-6.06
-2.24
-11.74
4,089,215
42,410,101
3,558,635
36,941,911
530,580
5,468,190
-7.09
-7.41
-4.81
10,071,275
102,545,536
6,966,001
70,223,350
3,105,273
32,322,187
-6.44
-3.62
-12.03
4,235,752
42,272,533
2,297,827
21,623,073
1,937,925
20,649,460
-27.76
-34.44
-19.14
3,280,167
28,649,371
747,882
9,840,955
2,532,285
18,808,416
-22.61
2.02
-31.29
3,556,172
44,380,400
1,309,748
16,973,692
2,246,424
27,406,708
-16.50
-20.80
-13.60
3,305,613
34,558,442
1,655,941
18,264,467
1,649,672
16,293,975
1.99
-0.89
5.41
32,583,502
346,703,001 22,476,116
254,320,584 10,107,387
92,382,418
1.68
4.52
-5.38
6,281,386
70,734,425
2,353,943
25,061,964
3,927,442
45,672,461
-15.79
4.19
-23.81
612,828
7,135,009
302,410
3,056,081
310,418
4,078,928
-18.41
5.01
-30.09
50,781,452
519,656,369 23,567,268
253,524,593 27,214,181
266,131,775
-11.58
-0.02
-20.35

Cumulated imports: prices and quantities (Customs data)

(000) USD
Fresh, dried fruits and nuts
Cereals and cereal flour
Soybean
Edible vegetable oil
Iron ore and concentrates
Copper ores and concentrates
Coal and lignite
Crude oil
Refined oil
No. 5-7 fuel oil
GLP and other hydrocarbon gas
Pharmaceuticals
Mineral fertilizers and fertilizers
Plastics in primary forms
Natural and synthetic rubber (including latex)
Logs and lumber
Pulp
Textile yarn, fabrics and related products
Steel
Unwrought copper and copper
Solid waste
Metal-working machines
Automatic data processing equipment and parts
Diode and similar semiconductor devices
Integrated circuit
Motor vehicles and chassis
Automotive Parts
Aircraft and other aircraft
LCD panel
Agricultural Products
Electronics
High-tech products

unit
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
ton
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 m3)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
(10,000 tons)
units
Million units
Million units
Million units
(10,000 units)

(10,000 units)

December 2015
Jan/Dec 2015
Jan/Dec 2014
2015 YoY
Quantity
Money
Quantity
Money
Quantity
Money
Quantity Price Money
36
277,357
430
3,629,977
384
3,085,790
11.98
5.05 17.64
208
394,951
3,270
5,818,068
1,951
3,816,642
67.6 -9.05 52.44
912 2,282,666
8,169 21,570,755
7,140 24,726,630
14.4 -23.75 -12.76
77
333,935
676
3,111,856
650
3,641,582
4.1 -17.83 -14.55
9,627 3,146,855
95,272 35,736,847
93,234 57,354,927
2.2 -39.02 -37.69
148 1,184,652
1,329 11,921,459
1,181 13,178,389
12.6 -19.61
-9.54
1,764
566,399
20,406
7,491,762
29,120 13,660,467
-29.9 -21.74 -45.16
3,319 6,700,031
33,550 83,327,680
30,837 140,152,378
8.8 -45.35 -40.54
284
752,217
2,990
8,861,615
3,000 14,399,528
-0.3 -38.25 -38.46
119
177,002
1,540
3,103,098
1,771
6,642,649
-13.0 -46.28 -53.29
348
974,509
3,207
9,442,617
2,722 11,390,405
17.8 -29.64 -17.10
12,208 1,367,663 106,064 12,649,497 112,385 11,732,165
-5.6 14.24
7.82
146
306,547
1,114
2,439,859
955
2,055,787
16.7
1.74 18.68
230 2,398,056
2,610 27,931,710
2,535 31,670,928
2.9 -14.34 -11.81
59
525,499
472
4,855,787
409
5,477,179
15.3 -23.18 -11.35
658
839,962
7,115
9,650,634
7,684 12,203,291
-7.4 -14.59 -20.92
171
694,882
1,984
7,918,154
1,796
7,409,167
10.4 -3.26
6.87
1,029,391
11,834,809
12,513,981
-5.43
118
772,764
1,278
8,892,590
1,443 11,009,953
-11.4 -8.80 -19.23
53 1,763,850
481 18,036,185
482 21,847,764
-0.3 -17.27 -17.45
421 1,189,071
4,473 13,630,597
4,455 16,895,292
0.4 -19.65 -19.32
6,279
494,773
90,910
5,359,712 106,132
6,666,152
-14.3 -6.14 -19.60
6,169 1,776,852
72,032 17,184,112
76,511 18,760,659
-5.9 -2.71
-8.40
62,499 1,785,366 512,352 13,947,612 528,097 14,461,807
-3.0 -0.59
-3.56
31,401 15,407,668 313,996 143,034,690 285,352 133,659,557
10.0 -2.75
7.01
11 2,624,727
110 27,871,295
142 37,338,057
-22.8 -3.64 -25.35
1,766,866
17,102,869
19,818,464
-13.70
47,403 1,986,391
68,274 15,197,386
10,771 15,945,246
533.9 -84.96
-4.69
29,254 2,367,716 282,988 24,663,929 297,835 26,882,587
-5.0 -3.44
-8.25
7,024,374
71,944,724
74,649,808
-3.62
51,854,697
501,320,374
524,934,126
-4.50
36,223,708
340,941,768
338,654,044
0.68