ETPs listed in the US grew at a faster rate than in any other region. Developed Markets Equity flows drove industry growth. Despite this total assets have increased by 21% from 2012 to $2. Trillion.
ETPs listed in the US grew at a faster rate than in any other region. Developed Markets Equity flows drove industry growth. Despite this total assets have increased by 21% from 2012 to $2. Trillion.
ETPs listed in the US grew at a faster rate than in any other region. Developed Markets Equity flows drove industry growth. Despite this total assets have increased by 21% from 2012 to $2. Trillion.
The opinions expressed are as of November 30th, 2013 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. ONLY FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS IN CANADA AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN OTHER REGIONS ONLY FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS IN CANADA AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN OTHER REGIONS ETP Landscape 2013 Surprises [ 2 ] GLOBAL ETP CUMULATIVE FLOWS 1 (US $billions) 79 109 146 218 319 428 598 851 772 1,156 1,483 1,525 1,944 2,361 106 219 297 300 357 524 883 1,541 2,220 2,694 3,543 4,311 4,759 4,981 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000 $2,200 $2,400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Nov-13 Assets ($bn) Global ETP ASSETS & NUMBER OF ETPs BY YEAR 1 # of ETPs 173.5 262.7 209.9 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2011 2012 Jan-Nov 2013 Overview: The role of ETPs continues to grow in the global capital markets as investors seek efficient, tailored access to varied investment exposures and look for diversified buy-and-hold investment products. As we approach year-end, the global ETP industry is closing in on another year of strong asset growth. Year-to-date flows of $209.9bn through November remain close to last years record level, a strong proof point for the secular growth of the industry. Flows exhibited increased volatility, particularly during the second half of the year due to the debate over Fed tapering, but despite this total assets have increased by 21% from 2012 to $2.4 trillion. Along the way some surprising trends emerged in the 2013 ETP growth story. 2013 Surprises: 1) ETPs listed in the US grew at a faster rate than in any other region 2) Developed Markets Equity flows drove industry growth 3) Emerging Markets Equity flows remain in negative territory for the year 4) Strategic Beta Equity 3 captured nearly a third of industry flows 5) Fixed Income experienced a duration rotation but kept growing 6) The pace of new launches moderated, yet these funds attracted meaningful assets 7) Demand and dollars invested in Pan European ETPs reached all-time highs 8) Monetary and fiscal policy heavily influenced ETP flows 9) US Retail investors amped up their ETP usage 10) Gold outflows were a consistent and significant drag on industry growth ONLY FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS IN CANADA AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN OTHER REGIONS ETP Landscape 2013 Surprises [ 3 ] ETP ASSET GROWTH BY LISTING REGION 1 (2013 YTD vs. 3-Year CAGR) 24% 13% 4% 23% -6% 19% 15% 26% 28% 6% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% US Europe Canada Asia Pacific Latin America 2013 YTD 3-YEAR CAGR 2010 2012 ASSET GROWTH RATES AND # OF ETPs 1 (# ETPs) $1,669 $414 $59 $11 $169 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 110 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2 0 1 3
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2013 AUM Growth US Europe Canada Asia Pacific Latin America Bubble size = Assets ($bn) 1. ETPs listed in the US grew at a faster rate than in any other region One wouldnt expect the largest regional asset base to grow at such a high rate compared to smaller regions, but the US industry saw net inflows of $169bn as well as robust Equity market returns in 2013. Although the US now accounts for 71% of all global ETP assets, it had the highest growth rate. Year to date, assets have grown 24%, surpassing its three year annualized growth rate of 19%. $16bn or approximately 10% of US ETP flows have come from non-US clients. The US also saw the highest number of new funds with 86. The Asia Pacific ETP market experienced similar growth to the US. Assets increased 23% and the number of ETPs available increased by 81. Europe managed low double digit growth, however, if Gold outflows were excluded, the growth rate would have been 15% which is on par with the compound annual growth rate for the last 3 years. The Canadian ETP market had modest growth this year at 4% largely due to headwinds in Canadian Equities which were held back by a more cautious market sentiment. Latin America was the only region where assets declined. However, this trend is not indicative of the regions true growth as many institutional investors in the region purchase ETPs listed in the US or Europe. ONLY FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS IN CANADA AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN OTHER REGIONS [ 4 ] 2. Developed Markets Equity flows drove industry growth Flows of $227.9bn into ETPs offering exposure to Developed Markets Equities eclipsed the previous annual record inflows of $180bn (from 2008) and are nearly double the levels seen last year. While other asset classes experienced outflows (Commodities and Emerging Markets Equities) or moderate inflows (Fixed Income), Developed Markets Equities thrived, representing an out-sized portion of 2013 asset gathering. Investors flocked to US Equity ETPs throughout the year except in August when taper fears flared and the industry suffered record monthly outflows. Prolonged stimulus from the Federal Reserve helped to boost demand throughout most of 2013, leading to $128.6bn in net new assets. Dovish monetary policies and Abenomics in Japan helped boost demand for Japanese Equity exposures to a new record with flows of $36.1bn, three times higher than last years $10.6bn. ETPs offering Pan European Equity exposure gained meaningful traction in the second half of the year and took in a record $24.0bn year to date, more than twice the asset raise seen in 2012. 3. Emerging Markets Equity flows remain in negative territory for the year Growth rates for Emerging Markets economies continue to outpace those of Developed Markets, yet in 2013 Emerging Markets Equity indices underperformed Developed Markets by nearly 20 percentage points and US Equities by more than 30. Emerging Markets Equity ETP flows similarly lagged behind, with redemptions of ($9.8bn). Emerging Markets had been in favor for several years, holding up after the end of the financial crisis as interest rates remained low and growth expectations high. In fact, the category took in $55bn in new assets last year. However, the anticipation of an end to loose monetary policy in the developed world began to take hold in 2013 and acted as a catalyst that led investors to recalibrate expectations for emerging markets. Ben Bernankes comments in May about tapering in the US accelerated the trend. Emerging Markets currencies DEVELOPED MARKETS EQUITY ETP FLOWS 1 (US $billions) 101.8 115.9 227.9 0 50 100 150 200 250 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2011 2012 2013 EQUITY ETP 2013 YTD FLOWS 1 BY EXPOSURES (US $billions) 128.6 36.1 24.0 39.1 (9.8) -40 0 40 80 120 160 J F M A M J J A S O N US Other Developed Japan Pan- European EM weakened, particularly for those economies with weaker fiscal positions. Growth expectations for China moderated. Additionally, signs of improving economic growth for the US and Europe albeit slow attracted flows to Equity ETPs with these exposures. ETP Landscape 2013 Surprises 2013 YTD INDEX RETURNS (%) Index returns (ex- div) in USD (%) Jan-Nov 2013 Annual 2012 Annual 2011 MSCI EM (3.5) 15.1 (20.4) MSCI EAFE 17.8 13.6 (14.8) S&P 500 26.6 13.4 0.0 ONLY FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS IN CANADA AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN OTHER REGIONS [ 5 ] $285bn 16% GLOBAL FIXED INCOME ETP FLOWS 1 , 2 (US $billions) J F M A M J J A S O N -20 0 20 40 (9.0) 34.7 4. Strategic Beta Equity captured nearly a third of industry flows Strategic Beta Equity funds have gained more momentum in 2013. We define Strategic Beta as funds designed to track indexes that weight holdings by factors other than market capitalization such as dividends, volatility or factors (for example, momentum). Strategic Beta Equity funds gathered a record total of $61.3bn nearly a third of this years global industry flows with asset growth of over 40%. Dividend weighted 7 funds once again led Strategic Beta with $27.6bn of flows this year, more than double the $13.1bn collected in 2012. Many income-seeking investors have turned to dividend stocks as bond alternatives in a persistent low-interest rate environment. Another rapidly growing area is Minimum Volatility where assets have more than doubled over eleven months to $13.3bn. These funds seek to smooth out the markets peaks and valleys in part by holding stocks that have exhibited less price volatility, capitalizing on investors desire to manage volatility. 5. Fixed Income experienced a duration rotation but kept growing In early 2013, market concern over rising interest rates amid improving economic conditions and possible Fed tapering spurred debate over a potential great rotation out of bonds. The ETP industry did not experience a great rotation, but rather a duration rotation as flows shifted from longer- to shorter-maturity funds. Fixed Income ETP flows of $25.7bn through November were ETP Landscape 2013 Surprises down from last years record-setting annual level of $70bn, but still strong. Short maturity products have steadily gathered $34.7bn while other maturities began to experience outflows in May and have shed ($9.0bn) year-to-date. The duration shift manifested in the US where investors pulled ($21.8bn) from broad maturity ETPs and plowed $30.3bn into short maturity products. Assets in US- listed short-maturity ETPs almost doubled from $48.1bn in 2012 to $78.4bn this year. There was less rate sensitivity outside the US as flows were distributed across short, intermediate, and broad maturities with roughly $4bn each. Fixed Income ETPs with European exposure did particularly well gathering $6.3bn the highest total since 2008 anchored by the ECBs monetary policy of continued low rates. Mutual funds saw a larger duration rotation with outflows of ($42.7bn) this year vs. $435bn of inflows last year. 6 Short maturity mutual funds have also steadily gathered assets while outflows for other maturities have accelerated and reached ($165.9bn). 123.1 (165.9) -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 J F M A M J J A S O N C u m u l a t i v e
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( U S $ b n ) GLOBAL FIXED INCOME MUTUAL FUND FLOWS 1 , 2 (US $billions) ONLY FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS IN CANADA AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN OTHER REGIONS [ 6 ] CUMULATIVE ETP FLOWS SINCE 2010 BY LISTING YEAR 1 (US $billions) 991 952 659 485 97 92 217 211 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2010 2011 2012 Jan-Nov 2013 Newly Launched Delisted NEWLY LAUNCHED VS. DELISTED IN THE YEAR 1 (including individual share classes and excluding cross listings) VINTAGE (100) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 C u m u l a t i v e
F l o w s
S i n c e
2 0 1 0
( U S $ b n ) 2013 2012 2011 2010 Historical Launches $22.9 $57.1 $84.6 $97.2 $566.1 6. The pace of new launches moderated, yet these funds attracted meaningful assets New products are an important component of industry growth. Funds launched since the beginning of 2010 have gathered more than $260bn in net new assets. 485 ETPs made their debut in 2013 and accumulated assets of $22bn through November. Of these new launches, 100 were Strategic Beta Equity funds with total assets of $5.5bn. New fund launches have been on the decline with 659 coming to market last year and more than 900 for each of the prior two years. In 2013, there were 211 funds and share classes delisted. This is on par with 2012, but higher than previous years. With over 4,900 ETPs available globally, rapid growth opportunities may be diminishing for launching new ETPs based upon traditional market capitalization weighted equity indexes. As in past years, there is no discernible pattern to the top asset-gathering funds launched in 2013 the 15 largest spanned regions and asset classes. ETP Landscape 2013 Surprises ONLY FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS IN CANADA AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN OTHER REGIONS [ 7 ] M a y
6 - 1 1 M a y
2 0 - 2 4 S e p
1 6 - 2 0 S e p
9 - 1 3 J u l
8 - 1 2 J u n
1 7 - 2 1 O c t
1 4 - 1 8 May 22 nd First Taper Comments June 19 th Second Taper Announcement July 10 th Bernanke Qualifies his Position Sept 18 th Fed Decision No Taper Markets anticipate modest taper Oct 16 th US Debt Ceiling Resolved Period of Uncertainty US Debt Ceiling Negotiations Drag On N o v
2 5 - 2 9 N o v
1 8 - 2 2 Nov 21 st Yellen Nomination backed by Senate Banking Committee PAN-EUROPEAN EQUITY ETP FLOWS 1 2010-2013 Quarterly Trends ECONOMIC POLICY IMPACT ON GLOBAL ETP FLOWS 1 2013 Recent Weekly Trends 7. Demand and dollars invested in Pan European ETPs reached all time highs Pan-European Equity ETPs surged in popularity on news the Eurozone emerged from recession in the second quarter of 2013. Second half flows totaled an impressive $24.3bn (through November). Europe had remained mired in a long recession. ETPs offering Pan-European Equity exposure gathered $2.0bn in 2010 and saw redemptions of ($5.4bn) in 2011 when the debt crisis led investors to rush into safe-haven German Equities. This years $24.0bn in Pan-European flows has included three consecutive record-setting months (August October). In addition to early signs of economic growth in the region, Pan-European ETPs also got a boost from relatively richer valuations for US stocks, turmoil in Washington in the fall and the selloff in Emerging Markets this year. Additionally, European-listed ETP Industrys assets rallied to cross the $400bn mark. 8. Monetary & fiscal policy heavily influenced ETP flows Volatility in ETP flows was more pronounced in 2013 as shifts in monetary and government economic policies impacted markets, highlighting the value of ETPs in quickly expressing market sentiment. Global flows were particularly volatile from May to September, alternating between positive and negative totals each month. This underscored the importance of ETP liquidity and funds such as minimum volatility that seek to smooth the impact of market swings. The US fiscal cliff, Abenomics in Japan, and US debt ceiling negotiations all impacted flows. However, the potential for tapering by the Federal Reserve was the most crucial factor particularly in US listed products. Still, flows were on pace with last years record level for much of the year despite the ups and downs. ETP Landscape 2013 Surprises -5 0 5 10 15 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4TD 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 ONLY FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS IN CANADA AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN OTHER REGIONS [ 8 ] US RETAIL ETP INDUSTRY ASSETS BY INVESTOR TYPE 4 Gold Other Commodities GOLD ETP ASSETS VS CENTRAL BANK RESERVES 5 (Million troy ounces) 261.5 108.9 90.5 78.8 78.3 59.2 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 US Germany IMF Italy France Global Gold ETPs COMMODITIES ETP FLOWS 1 2013 YTD Net Flows: ($37.3bn) 9. US Retail investors amped up their ETP usage Combined ETP assets held by Financial Advisors, RIAs and individual investors increased 26% YTD through October to $1.1 trillion. 4 ETPs are becoming more mainstream in the US particularly among individual investors. More than $20bn in flows this year came from individual investors and they now account for 13% of the US ETP market. 10. Gold outflows were a consistent and significant drag on industry growth Gold ETPs saw outflows every month this year in contrast to record-breaking flows in 2012 and assets declined by 48%. There were some upticks in the price of gold in 2013, and easy money policies continued in the US and Japan, but low inflation remained a challenge for gold and rising real interest rates also caused headwinds. Gold can be costly to hold and offers no income stream to investors. However, Gold ETP assets remain sizeable at $74.1bn globally making ETPs collectively the 6th largest holder of gold behind the IMF and sovereign nations. Closing Summary: 2013 is heading towards another successful year for the Global ETP industry, in many ways exceeding expectations following record flows in 2012. There were unique upside surprises and unexpected challenges, but growth remained robust as signs of improvement in Developed Markets economies augmented the ongoing secular trend of growing ETP adoption. Global ETP assets have now increased more than 20% for two consecutive years and four of the past five. Looking ahead to 2014 we remain confident that the industry still has ample room to grow. ETP Landscape 2013 Surprises 709.8 895.8 181.5 228.7 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 YE2012 Oct-13 A s s e t s
U S $ b n Individual Investors Financial Advisors & RIAs ONLY FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS IN CANADA AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN OTHER REGIONS Endnotes ABOUT BLACKROCK BlackRock is a leader in investment management, risk management and advisory services for institutional and retail clients worldwide. At September 30, 2013, BlackRocks AUM was $4.096 trillion. BlackRock helps clients meet their goals and overcome challenges with a range of products that include separate accounts, mutual funds, iShares (exchange-traded funds), and other pooled investment vehicles. BlackRock also offers risk management, advisory and enterprise investment system services to a broad base of institutional investors through BlackRock Solutions. Headquartered in New York City, as of September 30, 2013, the firm had approximately 11,200 employees in 30 countries and a major presence in key global markets, including North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and the Middle East and Africa. For additional information, please visit the Company's website at www.blackrock.com. [ 9 ] Dodd Kittsley Head of BlackRock ETP Research For inquiries, contact ETPresearch@BlackRock.com BlackRock ETP Research Raj Seshadri Head of BlackRock ETP Insights The ETP (or exchange traded product) category encompasses any portfolio exposure security that trades intra-day on an exchange. The data for this report are captured from a number of sources by BlackRock including provider websites, fund prospectuses, provider press releases, provider surveys, Bloomberg, the National Stock Exchange, Strategic Insight Simfund, Wind, and the Bank of Israel. All amounts are reported in US dollars. Flows are derived using daily net asset values and shares outstanding using the most recent data we can capture at month-end. For products with cross-listings, we attribute net flows and assets to the primary listings. For Middle East and Africa, net flows data is not available. Assets are derived using shares outstanding and prices at the end of each month (or the closest date available). Where price is not available, we use an approximation. For ETPs listed in Israel, product level detail is not available. Product level information is aggregated by provider, asset class, exposure, region listed and replication method to produce the various analyses in the report. 1. Data is as of November 28, 2013 for Europe and November 29, 2013 for the US, Canada, Latin America, Israel, and some Asia ETPs. Some Asia ETP data is as of the end of October 2013. Global ETP flows and assets are sourced using shares outstanding and net asset values from Bloomberg for the US, Canada, Europe, Latin America and some ETPs in Asia. Middle East ETP assets are sourced from the Bank of Israel. ETP flows and assets in China are sourced from Wind. Inflows for years prior to 2010 are sourced from Strategic Insights Simfund. Asset classifications are assigned by the BlackRock based on product definitions from provider websites and product prospectuses. Other static product information is obtained from provider websites, product prospectuses, provider press releases, and provider surveys. Market returns are sourced from Bloomberg. 2. We classify maturity buckets of a Fixed Income ETP if the fund invests at least 70% of its assets in the corresponding maturity/exposure range: Short maturity includes: underlying security maturities < 3 years and floating rate where the fund holds floating rate securities and/or bank loans. Intermediate includes: 3 years < underlying security maturities < 10 years. The other category includes Long-Term: underlying security maturities > 10 years; Broad Maturities: The fund invests in more than two maturity buckets without emphasizing one; Selected Maturities: The fund holds securities with multiple selected range of maturity buckets, i.e. barbell strategy which focuses on the specific short-term and long-term buckets with even weights; and Fixed Maturity: The fund itself has a target maturity date and arranged holdings correspondingly. 3. Strategic Beta Equity ETPs are defined as funds designed to track indexes that weight holdings by factors other than market capitalization such as dividends, minimum volatility, or factors (for example, momentum). 4. Source: Broadridge 5. Source: Bloomberg and IMF website as of October 2013 6. Source: EPFR as of November 2013 7. Equity ETPs that are dividend focus or dividend weighted can provide very different geographic exposures such as US, global, European, or other single-country or regional exposures. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual Fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. ONLY FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS IN CANADA AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS IN OTHER REGIONS REGULATORY INFORMATION BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ('FCA'), having its registered office at 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL, England, Tel +44 (0)20 7743 3000. This document has been provided by BlackRock in a private and confidential manner to professional and or institutional investors (as such term is defined according to applicable regulations in the relevant jurisdiction) only upon express request. 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