What if Anwar loses in Kajang?

The way DIY poll watchers have it, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim is likely to win hands
down in the forthcoming Kajang by-election en rote to displacing technocrat Khalid Ibrahim
as !elangor"s #enteri $esar% This is at least the game plan%
$t what if he loses& It doesn"t really matter as the 'akatan (akyat coalition will still have its
two thirds majority in the state assembly% $y that token, it will still contine to control
!elangor with a commanding margin, the richest state in #alaysia, for the second time
rnning% )ife goes on as sal%
$t if Anwar loses, then Khalid Ibrahim will likely contine as #enteri $esar, to the chagrin
of A*min Ali, an Anwar confidante who is also crrently depty chief of 'arti Keadilan or
'K(% The political fortnes of both Anwar and A*min wold then be tossed abot like a ship
flondering in a tempest%
+ven if Anwar wins, that doesn"t necessarily mean he gets to be the new #enteri $esar%
There are a few reasons% To begin with, Khalid has not said he wold make way for Anwar%
,ar from that in recent days he has made it clear he will fight tooth and nail to hang on to his
post%
Althogh Anwar is the keta mm or party chief, his position is largely an nelected office%
The elected president is his wife, -an A*i*ah, of corse% $t she is e.pected to make way for
her hsband in the party elections e.pected some weeks after the Kajang by-elections% A loss
in Kajang wold pt his candidacy in jeopardy%
Khalid has even p the stake by throwing in the gantlet for the pcoming party polls% /e has
confirmed rnning for the depty president% This pits him directly against A*min Ali, the
crrent depty party leader% It wold trly be a doble jeopardy if Anwar loses Kajang and
A*min loses to Khalid in the new 'K( line-p%
Anwar is crrently an #' and leader of the opposition coalition while A*min is both an #'
and !elangor state assemblyman%
!o why did Anwar get a sitting 'K( assemblyman to vacate his seat for Anwar to contest
given all the imponderables srronding this move&
The story we are told ths far is that 'rime #inister 0ajib (a*ak is abot to be toppled by
factions in 1mno, his own party% !hold this happen then !elangor wold cave in nder a
relentless onslaght by the new warlords in 1mno and Khalid Ibrahim wold be no match for
them% !o to make sre !elangor remain in 'akatan"s hands, Khalid is to be moved ot to
make Anwar the new #entri $esar to defend !elangor against the imagined 1mno warlords%
Another story is that Khalid and A*min have not been able to get along all these years ths
affecting the administration of !elangor% !o the soltion is to remove Khalid to keep him
away from A*min"s claws% The 2estion is why has A*min got sch a strangle hold on
Anwar&
Yet another story is that Khalid has been nable to resolve the water crisis with the water
concessionaires and the federal government% /e is also accsed of not being firm in handling
the 3Allah" controversy in !elangor% !o he has to make way for Anwar to resolve these two
crises%
/owever, strange as it may appear, last week Khalid appeared with none other than the '#
0ajib and his depty, #hyiddin Yassin, to sign a memorandm of nderstanding over a
mlti-billion ringgit deal to resolve the water crisis% $oth parties said this deal is irrevocable%
)ooks like Khalid is no pshover after all%
!o even if Anwar wins Kajang and become #enteri $esar, he wold already have half his job
done by Khalid solving the water crisis for him% This leaves the other half of the job in
dealing with the 3Allah" isse left for Anwar to do%
!o what if Anwar loses Kajang& 0o he won"t% Anwar is a seasoned campaigner% #oreover,
the 4hinese nhappiness with #4A is so great that its candidate against Anwar is not
e.pected to make a dent%
0either wold independent candidates draw away votes from Anwar significantly% /owever,
if Anwar is nable to maintain the same winning margin as the previos 'K( assemblyman,
then this may well be the chink in his armor%