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Climate Change, Water Resources &
Deep CO2 Sequestration
Graham E. Fogg
Dept. of Land, Air and Water Resources
Hydrologic Sciences Graduate Group
HYD/SAS 10
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Outline
Current CA water resources.
Potential effects of climate change on
water resources.
New paradigms in water resources
management.
CO
2
sequestration in the deep
subsurface.
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CA Water Plan 2005
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CA Water Plan 2005
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CA Water Plan 2005
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Likely Climate Change Effects
on CA Water Resources
More precipitation, less snow.
Greater winter flooding hazard.
Less available water because of timing and
less capture by reservoirs.
Greater stress on groundwater. But more
groundwater recharge?
Sea level rise --
Impacts on Sac. - San J oaquin Bay-Delta
Impacts on coastal groundwater basins
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Likely Effects Globally (IPCC, April 2007)
By 2050 wetter (10-40%) in high latitudes and
some wet tropical areas; drier in mid-latitudes
and in dry tropics.
Drought-affected areas will expand.
Higher risk of extreme precipitation events
and flooding.
Reduced flow from glacial melt, upon which
1/6 of population depends.
100s of millions of people exposed to
increased water stress.
CA Water Plan 2005
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CA Water Plan 2005
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CA Climate Change Center (2006)
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Zhu, J enkins & Lund (2006)
Wat er Avai l abi l i t y
Model i ng Resul t s
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Wat er Avai l abi l i t y i n CA (Zhu, J enk i ns & Lund, 2006)
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Sacramento-San J oaquin
Bay-Delta System
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Sacramento-San J oaquin Bay Delta System
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Cayan et al. (2006)
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Delta Elevations
(Black is below
sea level)
http://www.regis.berkeley.edu/baydelta.html
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Flooding
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Sutter Bypass, Sutter Co., 1997 flood
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Sutter Bypass, Sutter Co., 1997 flood
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Groundwater
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From Driscoll (1986)
Discharge
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Wat er Avai l abi l i t y i n CA (Zhu, J enk i ns & Lund, 2006)
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High-Resolution Subsurface
Characterization for Optimal
Groundwater Reservoir
Management and Protection
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Orange Co., CA (Tompson, Carle,
Rosenberg, and Maxwell, 1999)
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Where Paleosols Channeled Out,
Vertical Flow Enhanced
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Local Zones of Groundwater-Surface Water Interconnection, Cosumnes River, CA
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Groundwater Age Distribution &
Sustainability
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City of Davis, CA Well Data, <135 m
Depth
Major confining layers present
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Davis
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Why do Societies
Fail to Address
Fatal Problems?
Failure to anticipate a
problem before it
arrives.
Failure to perceive a
problem after it has
arrived.
Creeping normalcy
[Groundwater quality]
amnesia.
Monitoring
Failure to try to solve the
problem.
Failed attempts to solve
the problem.
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CO
2
Sequestration in the subsurface
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Prospective Sedimentary Basins for CO
2
Storage
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Orange Co., CA (Tompson, Carle,
Rosenberg, and Maxwell, 1999)
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Summary
Major decreases in CA water supply likely, with
greatest impacts on agriculture.
High-resolution characterization and
management of groundwater might
substantially mitigate the problem.
Flooding will be worse, but could be used to
enhance groundwater storage.
Declining groundwater quality in many areas
will jeopardize subsurface storage and
recovery feasibility or efficiency.
Deep CO
2
sequestration is feasible, but
demands substantial advances in subsurface
characterization.