DRQ Nov 97 TYS P.261 What are the skills involved? CASE DRQ Nov 97 TYS P.261 3-Jun-09 Raffles Institution (JC) 3 G: Glance / scan through all the questions first R: Read case material & look for evidence that address the questions (highlight) A: Analysethe question P: Plan answer using skills required E: Evaluate & execute plan for that question Breakdown into parts; command word; key words & phrases 3-Jun-09 Raffles Institution (JC) 4 G: Glance / scan through all the questions first R: Read case material & look for evidence that address the questions (highlight) A: Analyse the question D: Design your Plan based on skills required E: Evaluate & execute plan for that question Breakdown into parts; command word; key words & phrases C: Case evidence A: Apply economics concepts S: Supplementary materials E: Evaluate limitations of case material It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. Data Response or case study questions are essentially dealing with application of economics theories to data and real-world information given. Are these theories valid in the real world, or are there any limitations? Lets look for the evidence!! You see, but you do not observe. (a) Describe the trend in coffee prices from 1977 to 1992. (2m) You see, but you do not observe. (a) Which of the two statements better describe the trend in coffee prices from 1977 to 1992? (2m) 1. Coffee prices peaked at 225 US cents per lb in 1977, after which it fell in 1978 and rose slightly in 1979. Then prices plunged in 1980 and 1981, rising gradually from 1982 to 1984 and dropping in 1985. Prices then rose substantially in 1986, rising a little in 1988, falling slowly until 1992. 2. From 1977 to 1992, coffee prices experienced an overall downward trend with fluctuations. However, there were exceptions where prices rose (slightly) from 1978 and 1979 and moderately from 1981 to 1986. You see, but you do not observe. (a) Which of the two statements better describe the trend in coffee prices from 1977 to 1992? (2m) 3. From 1977 to 1992, coffee prices fell significantly by about 70%. However, prices rose (slightly) from 1978 and 1979 and moderately from 1981 to 1986. You see, but you do not observe. (a) Which of the two statements better describe the trend in coffee prices from 1977 to 1992? (2m) 1. Coffee prices peaked at 225 US cents per lb in 1977, after which it fell in 1978 and rose slightly in 1979. Then prices plunged in 1980 and 1981, rising gradually from 1982 to 1984 and dropping in 1985. Prices then rose substantially in 1986, rising a little in 1988, falling slowly until 1992. 1. Too detailed; 2. Avoid year-on-year description unless stated You see, but you do not observe. (a) Which of the two statements better describe the trend in coffee prices from 1977 to 1992? (2m) 2. From 1977 to 1992, coffee prices experienced an overall downward trend. However, there were exceptions. Prices rose (slightly) from 1978 and 1979 and moderately from 1981 to 1986. Main pattern Exceptions Specify time period You see, but you do not observe. (a) Which of the two statements better describe the trend in coffee prices from 1977 to 1992? (2m) 3. From 1977 to 1992, coffee prices fell significantly by about 70%. However, prices rose (slightly) from 1978 and 1979 and moderately from 1981 to 1986. Main pattern Exceptions Specify time period Skills involved in trend questions (a) Describe the trend in coffee prices from 1977 to 1992. (2m) Note stipulated time frame 1 mark for main pattern Upward trend; Downward trend; Stable; Cyclical trend (up and down and up and down); with fluctuations 1 mark for exception or refinement of trend (b) With the aid of diagrams, explain (i) how, according to Extract 1, coffee growers intended to affect the market for coffee in 1993. (4m) I never guess. It is a shocking habit -- destructive to the logical faculty. (b) With the aid of diagrams, explain (i) how, according to Extract 1, coffee growers intended to affect the market for coffee in 1993. (4m) 2m for explanation: Skills? 2m for diagram accompanied by textual explanation: Skills involved? Skills involved in diagram & explain questions bi) The South American Coffee Producers have intended to collude (form a cartel) and restrict their supply of coffee, by holding back 20% of their exports to revive coffee prices. This causes S0 curve to shift to S1 curve, ceteris paribus, raising equilibrium price from P0 to P1. Equilibrium quantity fell from q0 to q1. Price of coffee p1 p0 q1 q0 Quantity of coffee s1 s0 d bi) The impact on total revenue depends on the price elasticity of demand for coffee. If demand for coffee is price inelastic, total revenue will rise. However, if demand for coffee is price elastic, total revenue will fall. In this case Price of coffee p1 p0 q1 q0 Quantity of coffee s1 s0 d B) With the aid of diagrams, ii) explain how, according to Extract 2, the Brazilian Coffee Growers explained the rising coffee prices of 1994. (4m) I never guess. It is a shocking habit -- destructive to the logical faculty. Speculation The act of knowingly investing funds in a venture carrying higher-than-average risks in the hope of making above- average profits. Speculators expect to make a profit because of price changes Financial speculation involves the buying, holding and selling of stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, collectibles, real estate, derivatives or any valuable financial instrument to profit from fluctuations in its price as opposed to buying it for use. bii) The Brazilian Coffee growers blamed the financial speculation, rather than the effect of recent frosts for the increase in coffee prices of 1994. It causes speculators to stock up coffee in anticipation of rising coffee prices. Demand increased from D0 to D1, ceteris paribus, causing equilibrium price to increase from P0 to P1. Price of coffee p1 p0 q1 q0 Quantity of coffee d1 s0 d0 There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact. C. Use cross elasticity of demand to explain the suggested relationship between coffee and soft drinks such as Pepsi, Coca-cola and Sprite. [4m] 3-Jun-09 Raffles Institution (JC) 26 Structure Content Skills Introduction Body Conclusion Economic concepts, theories, principles Diagram Table Examples Command words Explain 6W + 1H Analyse Evaluate More techniques: Signalling Aesthetics Introduction: Define key terms Which of the following is the definition for CED? 1. CED refers to the degree of responsiveness of quantity demanded of one good to a change in the price of another good, ceteris paribus. 2. CED refers to the percentage change in quantity demanded of one good to a percentage change in the price of another good, ceteris paribus. c. It is quoted by Greenhalgh that hopes that coffee would be the new drink of the young have been lostSprite, suggesting that the coffee and soft drinks are substitutes in demand. CED will be positive, as an increase in the price of soft drinks, will lead to an increase in the demand for coffee, vice versa. c. Predict the magnitude of CED CED maybe high if they are close substitutes as they are both caffeinated drinks (in particular coke) or CED maybe low, as they are not close substitutes, as coffee and soft drinks tend to cater to different groups of consumers. Key is to JUSTIFY your stand. Cross elasticity of demand Definition Formula Sign & its interpretation Size & its interpretation Factors affecting CED One should always look for a possible alternative and provide against it. It is the first rule of criminal investigation. d. To what extent can agreements about price and output fixing between primary producers be (i)desirable and (ii)effective? (6m) One should always look for a possible alternative and provide against it. It is the first rule of criminal investigation. What are the skills involved? Intro: Explain Primary producers and Price & Output Fixing Clarify what is meant by primary producers price and output fixing In this case, it refers to member countries restrict supply to raise price (as seen in the evidence that members would be holding back 20 percent of their exports... To revive prices... Body: Make a distinction between desirability and effectiveness. Desirability: What does the policy seek to achieve? Are the outcomes good or not (depends on perspectives)? Stabilises prices for both producers and consumers Reduces uncertainty and promote businesses. Body: Make a distinction between desirability and effectiveness. Stabilises income of producers Higher total revenue for producers if demand for the product is price inelastic. However, if the product is price elastic in demand, total revenue will fall. Evaluate: Are primary products price inelastic in demand? Is coffee price inelastic in demand? Maximising joint profit Collusion in the form of a cartel can suppress competition among firms Desirable for existing firms Maximise joint profits. However, undesirable for consumers Reduces consumer surplus Body: Make a distinction between desirability and effectiveness. Effectiveness: How effective are they in fixing price and output & in achieving their intended aim(s)? Practicality and feasibility of implementation (Yuh Yiing. 08S07C) Body: Make a distinction between desirability and effectiveness. d. Effectiveness of the price-output fixing policy depends on several factors: Their market power Latin American producers account for about 60% of world exports. Availability & cost of storage facilities Perishable nature of the product How long can coffee beans be kept? Is the collusion stable? Is it possible to sustain the collusion and for how long? Body: Make a distinction between desirability and effectiveness. d. In the SR, the incentive to max joint profits will facilitate collusion price-output fixing effective However, in the LR, there is high likelihood that the agreements will collapse as firms will be tempted to increase output above their quota to increase their profit. Moreover, the high price will attract new firms (producers) to join the market, and hence, increases output further. In the LR, supply increases, price drops, price and output fixing policy may not be effective in the LR. d. Conclusion: Make a stand and justify your stand In conclusion, whether price and output fixing is desirable depends on In this case, it is The extent to which price and output fixing will be effective depends on In this case, it is Scroll down d. Conclusion: Make a stand and justify your stand Bring in other strategies that will help to achieve the intended aim Evaluation: Short run vs long run strategies 3-Jun-09 Raffles Institution (JC) 45 Structure Content Skills Introduction Body Conclusion Economic concepts, theories, principles Diagram Table Examples Command words Explain 6W + 1H Analyse Evaluate More techniques: Signalling Aesthetics