Prospects of New and Renewable

Energy for Energy Mix in Electricity

Production


Djoko Prasetijo
System Planning Goup
PLN Head Office, Jakarta
Fakultas Teknik Universitas Gajah Mada + SP Technical Research
Institute of Sweden
Development of New and Renewable Energy
Roundtable Workshop

Yogyakarta, 21 September 2011
Projection of Electricity Demand 2011-2020
IB : 10,2%
24
TWh
55 TWh
IT :
10,8%
13 TWh
31 TWh
JB : 7,9%
125
TWh
241
TWh
Kebutuhan listrik Indonesia akan tumbuh rata-rata 8,46% per
tahun
2011 2020
2
Residensial
Bisnis
Publik
Industri
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Indonesia
Residensial
Bisnis
Publik
Industri
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jawa-Bali
Residensial
Bisnis
Publik
Industri
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Indonesia Timur
Residensial
Bisnis
Publik
Industri
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Indonesia Barat
3
Projection of Electricity Demand 2011-2020
Large RE : Geothermal and Hydro Power
EXPLOITABLE RESOURCE POTENTIAL (50 fields) by WestJEC 2007
Source: Master Plan Study for Geothermal Power Development in the Republic of Indonesia, WestJEC, August 2007
Source: Master Plan Study for Geothermal Power Development in the Republic of Indonesia, WestJEC, August 2007
More recent study by castlerock in December 2010 sees
inconsistencies between the previous studies (by Pertamina 1999,
Volcanological Survey of Indonesia 2007, WestJEC 2007 and WGC
2010), and approaches lead to over-estimates..
Castlerock updates the geothermal resources based on 40 years
exploration and development data (from Pertamina, Badan Geologi,
field work by geoscienties) and new probabilistic volume approach
More Realistic Estimate of Geothermal Potentials?
Source: Geothermal Pricing & Incentive Policy Study, CastleRock December 2010
Some salient points of the study :
Geothermal cost is more uncertain
Geothermal is competitive when total externalities are accounted
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
cents/kWh
Source: Geothermal Pricing & Incentive Policy Study, CastleRock December 2010
Some salient points of the study :
Example for Sumatera
Potentials significantly smaller than WestJec study in 2007 (4500 MW)
Mean
Upper
bound
Lower
bound
L
C
O
E

i
n

c
e
n
t
s
/
k
W
h

Hydro power potential
Existing studies:
[1] Hydro Power Potential Study HPPS, 1983
[2] Hydro Inventory (HPPS 2) 1999
[3] Master Plan Study of Hydro Power Development in Indonesia, Nippon
KOEI, May 2011
The hydro power potential was reported to be 75 GW In [1], [2],
but after undergoing rigorous environmental and social screenings
in 2010, it is estimated only 26.3 GW [3].
The 26.3 GW consist existing capacity (of 4.4 GW), plannng & on-
going (6 GW), new potential (16 GW).
The new potentials are classified according to the level of difficulty
in terms of forest type, resettlement, reservoir area.
Under realistic scenario, almost 8 GW is available having almost 33
TWh of energy
Other renewables
Small hydro: private developers encouraged to build them, PLN is willing
to purchase the power at the price set by the MEMR
Solar PV: PLN installed concentrated solar PV (not Solar Home System)
in a few remote locations in eastern Indonesia, will be expanded to
much more (100 remote islands this year alone) and many more in the
coming years
Wind power: not very successful
Biomass: PLN does not plan to puild biomass plant (for difficulties in
controlling the feed stock), but willing to purchase power from them.
Biomass co-firing in coal plants: not yet
Other RE: not yet.

DATA Prep
EXISTING PLANT :
Thermal : OM Cost, Lifetime,
Efficiency, Availability, Unit size.
Hydro : OM Cost, Lifetime, Energy
Production, Capacity
ECONOMIC
PARAMETERS :
Discount Rate,
Fuel Price,
Energy not served cost
LOAD DATA
Load Forecast and
Load Duration Curve
VARIABEL/CANDIDATE PLANT
Thermal : Construction Cost, OM Cost,
Life time, Eff., Availability, Unit size,
Fuel Type
Hydro : Construction Cost, OM Cost,
Life Time, Energy, Capacity
ENERGY RESOURCES
Gas, hydro, Geothermal,
Peat.
Configuration
Generation
Production Costing
Dynamic
Programming
Reliability
Criteria, misal
LOLP
Objective function =
PV (Capital +O&M +
EnS Salvage Value)
No
Optimum
Multiyear
Expansion Plan
Yes
Optimal
?
Generation Capacity Expansion Planning in PLN
Geothermal and hydropower
are excluded from the
optimization process (they are
fixed at the year wherever
they are ready)
24%
39%
43%
35%
31%
32%
37%
39%
37%
36%
36%
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
PLTA PLN
PLTG PLN PLTG IPP
PLTGU PLN PLTGU IPP
PLTU PLN Baru PLTU PLN
PLTU IPP PLTP PLN
PLTP IPP Kapasitas Terpasang
PEAK DEMAND FORECAST Reserve Margin Normal
Capacity Plan for Jawa-Bali
12
Coal IPP
Geothemal
Existing capacity
PS hydro
GT
Coal PLN (FTP1)
Coal PLN
Gas GTCC``
MW
Reserve margin
Projection of Fuel Mix for Jawa-Bali [GWh]
HSD
Gas
Geothermal
Hydro
LNG
MFO
Coal
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Air Panas Bumi Batubara Gas LNG MFO (Oil) HSD (Oil)
Coal
Geothermal
Hydro
Gas
LNG
Oil
13
-
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
P
r
o
d
u
k
s
i

e
n
e
r
g
i

(
G
W
h
)
MFO HSD LNG Gas Batubara Geot. Hydro
Gas
Geothermal
Hydro
LNG
HSD
MFO
Coal
HSD
Geothermal
Hydro
14
Projection of Fuel Mix for Sumatera [GWh]
Geothermal
-
3.000
6.000
9.000
12.000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
P
r
o
d
u
k
s
i

e
n
e
r
g
i

(
G
W
h
)
Hydro Geot. Batubara Gas LNG HSD MFO
15
Projection of Fuel Mix for Kalimantan [GWh] *)
*) Exclude West Kalimantan
coal
gas
hydro
oil
Geothermal
Gas
Hydro
LNG
HSD MFO
Coal
-
1.500
3.000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
P
r
o
d
u
k
s
i

e
n
e
r
g
i

(
G
W
h
)
Hydro Geot. Batubara Gas LNG HSD MFO
coal
Hydro
Geothermal
LNG
HSD
MFO
16
Projection of Fuel Mix for North Sulawesi & Gorontalo
Geothermal
17
Projection of Fuel Mix for Southern Sulawesi [GWh]
Gas
Hydro
LNG
HSD MFO
Coal
-
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
P
r
o
d
u
k
s
i

e
n
e
r
g
i

(
G
W
h
)
Hydro Geot. Batubara Gas LNG HSD MFO
coal
gas
hydro
LNG
oil
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
G
W
h
Impor Biomass Surya/Hybrid HSD MFO LNG Gas Batubara Geothermal Hydro
Hydro
HSD
Gas
LNG
coal
geothermal
Hydro
oil
18
Projection of Fuel Mix (National)
Hydro
HSD
Gas
LNG
coal
geothermal
Hydro
oil
19
Conclusions
Typical of a developing country, electricity demand in Indonesia is
expectted to grow fast.
Coal (and gas) will remain the predominant energy source for
electricity production, but renewables (most notably geothermal and
hydro power) are expected to take a greater role whenever they are
available.
PLN welcomes the development of renewables (geothermal and
hydro power), and they may come at any time they please (supply
demand balance must be checked though).
Other RE, especiallly solar PV, is still quite small, but will become
more and more important for remote areas power supply.


20
Thank you



Djoko_Pras@pln.co.id