Global Warming

By Holli Riebeek Design by Robert Simmon June 3, 2010

Throughout its long history, Earth has warme an !oole time an again" #limate has !hange
when the $lanet re!ei%e more or less sunlight ue to subtle shi&ts in its orbit, as the atmos$here
or sur&a!e !hange, or when the Sun's energy %arie" But in the $ast !entury, another &or!e has
starte to in&luen!e Earth's !limate( humanity
)re%ious %ersions o& this arti!le were $ublishe in 200* an 2002" +r!hi%e %ersions are a%ailable
as )D, &iles"
-.+S+ astronaut $hotogra$h /SS0220E011*2"3
What is Global Warming?
4lobal warming is the unusually ra$i in!rease in Earth's a%erage sur&a!e tem$erature o%er the
$ast !entury $rimarily ue to the greenhouse gases release by $eo$le burning &ossil &uels"
How Does Todays Warming Compare to Past Climate Change?
Earth has e5$erien!e !limate !hange in the $ast without hel$ &rom humanity" But the !urrent
!limati! warming is o!!urring mu!h more ra$ily than $ast warming e%ents"
Why Do Scientists Think Current Warming snt !atural?
/n Earth's history be&ore the /nustrial Re%olution, Earth's !limate !hange ue to natural !auses
unrelate to human a!ti%ity" These natural !auses are still in $lay toay, but their in&luen!e is too
small or they o!!ur too slowly to e5$lain the ra$i warming seen in re!ent e!aes"
How "uch "ore Will #arth Warm?
6oels $rei!t that as the worl !onsumes e%er more &ossil &uel, greenhouse gas !on!entrations
will !ontinue to rise, an Earth's a%erage sur&a!e tem$erature will rise with them" Base on
$lausible emission s!enarios, a%erage sur&a!e tem$eratures !oul rise between 27# an 17# by
the en o& the 21st !entury" Some o& this warming will o!!ur e%en i& &uture greenhouse gas
emissions are reu!e, be!ause the Earth system has not yet &ully a8uste to en%ironmental
!hanges we ha%e alreay mae"
How Will #arth $espond to Warming Temperatures?
The im$a!t o& global warming is &ar greater than 8ust in!reasing tem$eratures" 9arming moi&ies
rain&all $atterns, am$li&ies !oastal erosion, lengthens the growing season in some regions, melts
i!e !a$s an gla!iers, an alters the ranges o& some in&e!tious iseases" Some o& these !hanges
are alreay o!!urring"
$e%erences and $elated $esources
Global Warming
Throughout its long history, Earth has warme an !oole time an again" #limate has !hange
when the $lanet re!ei%e more or less sunlight ue to subtle shi&ts in its orbit, as the atmos$here
or sur&a!e !hange, or when the Sun's energy %arie" But in the $ast !entury, another &or!e has
starte to in&luen!e Earth's !limate( humanity
How oes this warming !om$are to $re%ious !hanges in Earth's !limate: How !an we be !ertain
that human0release greenhouse gases are !ausing the warming: How mu!h more will the Earth
warm: How will Earth res$on: +nswering these ;uestions is $erha$s the most signi&i!ant
s!ienti&i! !hallenge o& our time"
What is Global Warming?
4lobal warming is the unusually ra$i in!rease in Earth's a%erage sur&a!e tem$erature o%er the
$ast !entury $rimarily ue to the greenhouse gases release as $eo$le burn &ossil &uels" The
global a%erage sur&a!e tem$erature rose 0"1 to 0"< egrees #elsius -1"1 to 1"17 ,3 between 1<01
an 200=, an the rate o& tem$erature in!rease has nearly ouble in the last =0 years"
Tem$eratures are !ertain to go u$ &urther"
Des$ite u$s an owns &rom year to year, global a%erage sur&a!e tem$erature is rising" By the
beginning o& the 21st !entury, Earth's tem$erature was roughly 0"= egrees #elsius abo%e the
long0term -1<=1>1<203 a%erage" -.+S+ &igure aa$te &rom 4oar /nstitute &or S$a!e Stuies
Sur&a!e Tem$erature +nalysis"3
#arths natural greenhouse e%%ect
Earth's tem$erature begins with the Sun" Roughly 30 $er!ent o& in!oming sunlight is re&le!te
ba!k into s$a!e by bright sur&a!es like !lous an i!e" ?& the remaining *0 $er!ent, most is
absorbe by the lan an o!ean, an the rest is absorbe by the atmos$here" The absorbe
solar energy heats our $lanet"
+s the ro!ks, the air, an the seas warm, they raiate @heatA energy -thermal in&rare raiation3"
,rom the sur&a!e, this energy tra%els into the atmos$here where mu!h o& it is absorbe by water
%a$or an long0li%e greenhouse gases su!h as !arbon io5ie an methane"
9hen they absorb the energy raiating &rom Earth's sur&a!e, mi!ros!o$i! water or greenhouse
gas mole!ules turn into tiny heatersB like the bri!ks in a &ire$la!e, they raiate heat e%en a&ter
the &ire goes out" They raiate in all ire!tions" The energy that raiates ba!k towar Earth heats
both the lower atmos$here an the sur&a!e, enhan!ing the heating they get &rom ire!t sunlight"
This absor$tion an raiation o& heat by the atmos$hereBthe natural greenhouse e&&e!tBis
bene&i!ial &or li&e on Earth" /& there were no greenhouse e&&e!t, the Earth's a%erage sur&a!e
tem$erature woul be a %ery !hilly 0127# -07,3 instea o& the !om&ortable 1=7# -=<7,3 that it is
toay"
See #limate an Earth's Energy Buget to rea more about how sunlight &uels Earth's !limate"
The enhanced greenhouse e%%ect
9hat has s!ientists !on!erne now is that o%er the $ast 2=0 years, humans ha%e been arti&i!ially
raising the !on!entration o& greenhouse gases in the atmos$here at an e%er0in!reasing rate,
mostly by burning &ossil &uels, but also &rom !utting own !arbon0absorbing &orests" Sin!e the
/nustrial Re%olution began in about 1*=0, carbon dio&ide le'els ha'e increased nearly ()
percent as o% *++, and methane le'els ha'e increased -.) percent/
/n!reases in !on!entrations o& !arbon io5ie -to$3 an methane -bottom3 !oin!ie with the start
o& the /nustrial Re%olution in about 1*=0" 6easurements &rom +ntar!ti! i!e !ores -green lines3
!ombine with ire!t atmos$heri! measurements -blue lines3 show the in!rease o& both gases
o%er time" -.+S+ gra$hs by Robert Simmon, base on ata &rom the .?++ )aleo!limatology
an Earth System Resear!h Caboratory"3
The atmos$here toay !ontains more greenhouse gas mole!ules, so more o& the in&rare energy
emitte by the sur&a!e ens u$ being absorbe by the atmos$here" Sin!e some o& the e5tra
energy &rom a warmer atmos$here raiates ba!k own to the sur&a!e, Earth's sur&a!e
tem$erature rises" By in!reasing the !on!entration o& greenhouse gases, we are making Earth's
atmos$here a more e&&i!ient greenhouse"
How is Todays Warming Di%%erent %rom the Past?
Earth has e5$erien!e !limate !hange in the $ast without hel$ &rom humanity" 9e know about
$ast !limates be!ause o& e%ien!e le&t in tree rings, layers o& i!e in gla!iers, o!ean seiments,
!oral ree&s, an layers o& seimentary ro!ks" ,or e5am$le, bubbles o& air in gla!ial i!e tra$ tiny
sam$les o& Earth's atmos$here, gi%ing s!ientists a history o& greenhouse gases that stret!hes
ba!k more than 200,000 years" The !hemi!al make0u$ o& the i!e $ro%ies !lues to the a%erage
global tem$erature"
See the Earth ?bser%atory's series )aleo!limatology &or etails about how s!ientists stuy $ast
!limates"
4la!ial i!e an air bubbles tra$$e in it -to$3 $reser%e an 200,0000year re!or o& tem$erature D
!arbon io5ie" Earth has !y!le between i!e ages -low $oints, large negati%e anomalies3 an
warm intergla!ials -$eaks3" -)hotogra$h !ourtesy .ational Snow D /!e Data #enter" .+S+ gra$h
by Robert Simmon, base on ata &rom JouEel et al", 200*"3
Fsing this an!ient e%ien!e, s!ientists ha%e built a re!or o& Earth's $ast !limates, or
@$aleo!limates"A The $aleo!limate re!or !ombine with global moels shows $ast i!e ages as
well as $erios e%en warmer than toay" But the $aleo!limate re!or also re%eals that the !urrent
!limati! warming is o!!urring much more rapidly than $ast warming e%ents"
+s the Earth mo%e out o& i!e ages o%er the $ast million years, the global tem$erature rose a
total o& G to * egrees #elsius o%er about =,000 years" /n the $ast !entury alone, the tem$erature
has !limbe 0"* egrees #elsius, roughly ten times &aster than the a%erage rate o& i!e0age0
re!o%ery warming"
Tem$erature histories &rom $aleo!limate ata -green line3 !om$are to the history base on
moern instruments -blue line3 suggest that global tem$erature is warmer now than it has been in
the $ast 1,000 years, an $ossibly longer" -4ra$h aa$te &rom 6ann et al", 2002"3
6oels $rei!t that Earth will warm between 2 an 1 egrees #elsius in the ne5t !entury" 9hen
global warming has ha$$ene at %arious times in the $ast two million years, it has taken the
$lanet about =,000 years to warm = egrees" The $rei!te rate o& warming &or the ne5t !entury
is at least 20 times &aster" This rate o& !hange is e5tremely unusual"
s Current Warming !atural?
/n Earth's history be&ore the /nustrial Re%olution, Earth's !limate !hange ue to natural !auses
not relate to human a!ti%ity" 6ost o&ten, global !limate has !hange be!ause o& %ariations in
sunlight" Tiny wobbles in Earth's orbit altere when an where sunlight &alls on Earth's sur&a!e"
Hariations in the Sun itsel& ha%e alternately in!rease an e!rease the amount o& solar energy
rea!hing Earth" Hol!ani! eru$tions ha%e generate $arti!les that re&le!t sunlight, brightening the
$lanet an !ooling the !limate" Hol!ani! a!ti%ity has also, in the ee$ $ast, in!rease greenhouse
gases o%er millions o& years, !ontributing to e$isoes o& global warming"
+ biogra$hi!al sket!h o& 6ilutin 6ilanko%it!h es!ribes how !hanges in Earth's orbit a&&e!ts its
!limate"
These natural causes are still in play today0 but their in%luence is too small or they occur
too slowly to e&plain the rapid warming seen in re!ent e!aes" 9e know this be!ause
s!ientists !losely monitor the natural an human a!ti%ities that in&luen!e !limate with a &leet o&
satellites an sur&a!e instruments"
Remote meteorologi!al stations -le&t3 an orbiting satellites -right3 hel$ s!ientists monitor the
!auses an e&&e!ts o& global warming" I/mages !ourtesy .?++ .etwork &or the Dete!tion o&
+tmos$heri! #om$osition #hange -le&t3 an En%ironmental HisualiEation Caboratory -right3"J
.+S+ satellites re!or a host o& %ital signs in!luing atmos$heri! aerosols -$arti!les &rom both
natural sour!es an human a!ti%ities, su!h as &a!tories, &ires, eserts, an eru$ting %ol!anoes3,
atmos$heri! gases -in!luing greenhouse gases3, energy raiate &rom Earth's sur&a!e an the
Sun, o!ean sur&a!e tem$erature !hanges, global sea le%el, the e5tent o& i!e sheets, gla!iers an
sea i!e, $lant growth, rain&all, !lou stru!ture, an more"
?n the groun, many agen!ies an nations su$$ort networks o& weather an !limate0monitoring
stations that maintain tem$erature, rain&all, an snow e$th re!ors, an buoys that measure
sur&a!e water an ee$ o!ean tem$eratures" Taken together, these measurements $ro%ie an
e%er0im$ro%ing re!or o& both natural e%ents an human a!ti%ity &or the $ast 1=0 years"
S!ientists integrate these measurements into !limate moels to re!reate tem$eratures re!ore
o%er the $ast 1=0 years" #limate moel simulations that !onsier only natural solar %ariability an
%ol!ani! aerosols sin!e 1*=0Bomitting obser%e in!reases in greenhouse gasesBare able to &it
the obser%ations o& global tem$eratures only u$ until about 1<=0" +&ter that $oint, the e!aal
tren in global sur&a!e warming !annot be e5$laine without in!luing the !ontribution o& the
greenhouse gases ae by humans"
Though $eo$le ha%e ha the largest im$a!t on our !limate sin!e 1<=0, natural !hanges to Earth's
!limate ha%e also o!!urre in re!ent times" ,or e5am$le, two ma8or %ol!ani! eru$tions, El
#hi!hon in 1<22 an )inatubo in 1<<1, $um$e sul&ur io5ie gas high into the atmos$here" The
gas was !on%erte into tiny $arti!les that lingere &or more than a year, re&le!ting sunlight an
shaing Earth's sur&a!e" Tem$eratures a!ross the globe i$$e &or two to three years"
+lthough Earth's tem$erature &lu!tuates naturally, human in&luen!e on !limate has e!li$se the
magnitue o& natural tem$erature !hanges o%er the $ast 120 years" .atural in&luen!es on
tem$eratureBEl .iKo, solar %ariability, an %ol!ani! aerosolsBha%e %arie a$$ro5imately $lus
an minus 0"27 # -0"G7 ,3, -a%eraging to about Eero3, while human in&luen!es ha%e !ontribute
roughly 0"27 # -17 ,3 o& warming sin!e 122<" -4ra$hs aa$te &rom Cean et al", 2002"3
+lthough %ol!anoes are a!ti%e aroun the worl, an !ontinue to emit !arbon io5ie as they i
in the $ast, the amount o& !arbon io5ie they release is e5tremely small !om$are to human
emissions" ?n a%erage, %ol!anoes emit between 130 an 230 million tonnes o& !arbon io5ie
$er year" By burning &ossil &uels, $eo$le release in e5!ess o& 100 times more, about 21 billion
tonnes o& !arbon io5ie, into the atmos$here e%ery year -as o& 200=3" +s a result, human a!ti%ity
o%ershaows any !ontribution %ol!anoes may ha%e mae to re!ent global warming"
#hanges in the brightness o& the Sun !an in&luen!e the !limate &rom e!ae to e!ae, but an
in!rease in solar out$ut &alls short as an e5$lanation &or re!ent warming" .+S+ satellites ha%e
been measuring the Sun's out$ut sin!e 1<*2" The total energy the Sun raiates %aries o%er an
110year !y!le" During solar ma5ima, solar energy is a$$ro5imately 0"1 $er!ent higher on a%erage
than it is uring solar minima"
The trans$arent halo known as the solar !orona !hanges between solar ma5imum -le&t3 an solar
minimum -right3" -.+S+ E5treme Fltra%iolet Teles!o$e images &rom the S?H? Data +r!hi%e"3
Ea!h !y!le e5hibits subtle i&&eren!es in intensity an uration" +s o& early 2010, the solar
brightness sin!e 200= has been slightly lower, not higher, than it was uring the $re%ious 110year
minimum in solar a!ti%ity, whi!h o!!urre in the late 1<<0s" This im$lies that the Sun's im$a!t
between 200= an 2010 might ha%e been to slightly e!rease the warming that greenhouse
emissions alone woul ha%e !ause"
Satellite measurements o& aily -light line3 an monthly a%erage -ark line3 total solar irraian!e
sin!e 1<*< ha%e not ete!te a !lear long0term tren" -.+S+ gra$h by Robert Simmon, base on
ata &rom the +#R/6 S!ien!e Team"3
S!ientists theoriEe that there may be a multi0e!aal tren in solar out$ut, though i& one e5ists, it
has not been obser%e as yet" E%en i& the Sun were getting brighter, howe%er, the $attern o&
warming obser%e on Earth sin!e 1<=0 oes not mat!h the ty$e o& warming the Sun alone woul
!ause" 9hen the Sun's energy is at its $eak -solar ma5ima3, tem$eratures in both the lower
atmos$here -tro$os$here3 and the u$$er atmos$here -stratos$here3 be!ome warmer" /nstea,
obser%ations show the $attern e5$e!te &rom greenhouse gas e&&e!ts( Earth's sur&a!e an
tro$os$here ha%e warme, but the stratos$here has !oole"
Satellite measurements show warming in the tro$os$here -lower atmos$here, green line3 but
!ooling in the stratos$here -u$$er atmos$here, re line3" This %erti!al $attern is !onsistent with
global warming ue to in!reasing greenhouse gases, but in!onsistent with warming &rom natural
!auses" -4ra$h by Robert Simmon, base on ata &rom Remote Sensing Systems, s$onsore by
the .?++ #limate an 4lobal #hange )rogram"3
The stratos$here gets warmer uring solar ma5ima be!ause the oEone layer absorbs ultra%iolet
lightL more ultra%iolet light uring solar ma5ima means warmer tem$eratures" ?Eone e$letion
e5$lains the biggest $art o& the !ooling o& the stratos$here o%er re!ent e!aes, but it !an't
a!!ount &or all o& it" /n!rease !on!entrations o& !arbon io5ie in the tro$os$here an
stratos$here together !ontribute to !ooling in the stratos$here"
How "uch "ore Will #arth Warm?
To &urther e5$lore the !auses an e&&e!ts o& global warming an to $rei!t &uture warming,
s!ientists buil !limate moelsB!om$uter simulations o& the !limate system" #limate moels are
esigne to simulate the res$onses an intera!tions o& the o!eans an atmos$here, an to
a!!ount &or !hanges to the lan sur&a!e, both natural an human0inu!e" They !om$ly with
&unamental laws o& $hysi!sB!onser%ation o& energy, mass, an momentumBan a!!ount &or
oEens o& &a!tors that in&luen!e Earth's !limate"
Though the moels are !om$li!ate, rigorous tests with real0worl ata hone them into $ower&ul
tools that allow s!ientists to e5$lore our unerstaning o& !limate in ways not otherwise $ossible"
By e5$erimenting with the moelsBremo%ing greenhouse gases emitte by the burning o& &ossil
&uels or !hanging the intensity o& the Sun to see how ea!h in&luen!es the !limateBs!ientists use
the moels to better unerstan Earth's !urrent !limate an to $rei!t &uture !limate"
The moels $rei!t that as the worl !onsumes e%er more &ossil &uel, greenhouse gas
!on!entrations will !ontinue to rise, an Earth's a%erage sur&a!e tem$erature will rise with them"
Base on a range o& $lausible emission s!enarios, a'erage sur%ace temperatures could rise
between *1C and 21C by the end o% the *-st century/
6oel simulations by the /ntergo%ernmental )anel on #limate #hange estimate that Earth will
warm between two an si5 egrees #elsius o%er the ne5t !entury, e$ening on how &ast !arbon
io5ie emissions grow" S!enarios that assume that $eo$le will burn more an more &ossil &uel
$ro%ie the estimates in the to$ en o& the tem$erature range, while s!enarios that assume that
greenhouse gas emissions will grow slowly gi%e lower tem$erature $rei!tions" The orange line
$ro%ies an estimate o& global tem$eratures i& greenhouse gases staye at year 2000 le%els"
-M200* /)## 941 +R0G"3
Climate 3eedbacks
4reenhouse gases are only $art o& the story when it !omes to global warming" #hanges to one
$art o& the !limate system !an !ause aitional !hanges to the way the $lanet absorbs or re&le!ts
energy" These se!onary !hanges are !alle climate feedbacks, and they could more than
double the amount o% warming caused by carbon dio&ide alone/ The $rimary &eeba!ks are
ue to snow an i!e, water %a$or, !lous, an the !arbon !y!le"
Snow and ice
)erha$s the most well known &eeba!k !omes &rom melting snow an i!e in the .orthern
Hemis$here" 9arming tem$eratures are alreay melting a growing $er!entage o& +r!ti! sea i!e,
e5$osing ark o!ean water uring the $er$etual sunlight o& summer" Snow !o%er on lan is also
winling in many areas" /n the absen!e o& snow an i!e, these areas go &rom ha%ing bright,
sunlight0re&le!ting sur&a!es that !ool the $lanet to ha%ing ark, sunlight0absorbing sur&a!es that
bring more energy into the Earth system an !ause more warming"
#anaa's +thabas!a 4la!ier has been shrinking by about 1= meters $er year" /n the $ast 12=
years, the gla!ier has lost hal& its %olume an has retreate more than 1"= kilometers" +s gla!iers
retreat, sea i!e isa$$ears, an snow melts earlier in the s$ring, the Earth absorbs more sunlight
than it woul i& the re&le!ti%e snow an i!e remaine" -)hotogra$h M200= Hugh Sa5by"3
Water 4apor
The largest &eeba!k is water %a$or" 9ater %a$or is a strong greenhouse gas" /n &a!t, be!ause o&
its abunan!e in the atmos$here, water %a$or !auses about two0thirs o& greenhouse warming, a
key &a!tor in kee$ing tem$eratures in the habitable range on Earth" But as tem$eratures warm,
more water %a$or e%a$orates &rom the sur&a!e into the atmos$here, where it !an !ause
tem$eratures to !limb &urther"
The ;uestion that s!ientists ask is, how mu!h water %a$or will be in the atmos$here in a warming
worl: The atmos$here !urrently has an a%erage e;uilibrium or balan!e between water %a$or
!on!entration an tem$erature" +s tem$eratures warm, the atmos$here be!omes !a$able o&
!ontaining more water %a$or, an so water %a$or !on!entrations go u$ to regain e;uilibrium" 9ill
that tren hol as tem$eratures !ontinue to warm:
The amount o& water %a$or that enters the atmos$here ultimately etermines how mu!h
aitional warming will o!!ur ue to the water %a$or &eeba!k" The atmos$here res$ons ;ui!kly
to the water %a$or &eeba!k" So &ar, most o& the atmos$here has maintaine a near !onstant
balan!e between tem$erature an water %a$or !on!entration as tem$eratures ha%e gone u$ in
re!ent e!aes" /& this tren !ontinues, an many moels say that it will, water 'apor has the
capacity to double the warming caused by carbon dio&ide alone/
Clouds
#losely relate to the water %a$or &eeba!k is the !lou &eeba!k" #lous !ause !ooling by
re&le!ting solar energy, but they also !ause warming by absorbing in&rare energy -like
greenhouse gases3 &rom the sur&a!e when they are o%er areas that are warmer than they are" n
our current climate0 clouds ha'e a cooling e%%ect o'erall0 but that !oul !hange in a warmer
en%ironment"
#lous !an both !ool the $lanet -by re&le!ting %isible light &rom the sun3 an warm the $lanet -by
absorbing heat raiation emitte by the sur&a!e3" ?n balan!e, !lous slightly !ool the Earth"
-.+S+ +stronaut )hotogra$h STS310E0<==2 !ourtesy Johnson s$a!e #enter Earth ?bser%ations
Cab"3
/& !lous be!ome brighter, or the geogra$hi!al e5tent o& bright !lous e5$ans, they will ten to
!ool Earth's sur&a!e" #lous !an be!ome brighter i& more moisture !on%erges in a $arti!ular
region or i& more &ine $arti!les -aerosols3 enter the air" /& &ewer bright !lous &orm, it will !ontribute
to warming &rom the !lou &eeba!k"
See Shi$ Tra!ks South o& +laska to learn how aerosols !an make !lous brighter"
#lous, like greenhouse gases, also absorb an re0emit in&rare energy" Cow, warm !lous emit
more energy than high, !ol !lous" Howe%er, in many $arts o& the worl, energy emitte by low
!lous !an be absorbe by the abunant water %a$or abo%e them" ,urther, low !lous o&ten ha%e
nearly the same tem$eratures as the Earth's sur&a!e, an so emit similar amounts o& in&rare
energy" /n a worl without low !lous, the amount o& emitte in&rare energy es!a$ing to s$a!e
woul not be too i&&erent &rom a worl with low !lous"
#lous emit thermal in&rare -heat3 raiation in $ro$ortion to their tem$erature, whi!h is relate to
altitue" This image shows the 9estern Hemis$here in the thermal in&rare" 9arm o!ean an
lan sur&a!e areas are white an light grayL !ool, low0le%el !lous are meium grayL an !ol,
high0altitue !lous are ark gray an bla!k" -.+S+ image !ourtesy 4?ES )ro8e!t S!ien!e"3
High !ol !lous, howe%er, &orm in a $art o& the atmos$here where energy0absorbing water %a$or
is s!ar!e" These !lous tra$ -absorb3 energy !oming &rom the lower atmos$here, an emit little
energy to s$a!e be!ause o& their &rigi tem$eratures" /n a worl with high !lous, a signi&i!ant
amount o& energy that woul otherwise es!a$e to s$a!e is !a$ture in the atmos$here" +s a
result, global tem$eratures are higher than in a worl without high !lous"
/& warmer tem$eratures result in a greater amount o& high !lous, then less in&rare energy will be
emitte to s$a!e" /n other wors, more high !lous woul enhan!e the greenhouse e&&e!t,
reu!ing the Earth's !a$ability to !ool an !ausing tem$eratures to warm"
See #lous an Raiation &or a more !om$lete es!ri$tion"
S!ientists aren't entirely sure where an to what egree !lous will en u$ am$li&ying or
moerating warming, but most climate models predict a slight o'erall positi'e %eedback or
ampli%ication o% warming due to a reduction in low cloud co'er/ + re!ent obser%ational stuy
&oun that &ewer low, ense !lous &orme o%er a region in the )a!i&i! ?!ean when tem$eratures
warme, suggesting a $ositi%e !lou &eeba!k in this region as the moels $rei!te" Su!h ire!t
obser%ational e%ien!e is limite, howe%er, an !lous remain the biggest sour!e o& un!ertainty00
a$art &rom human !hoi!es to !ontrol greenhouse gasesBin $rei!ting how mu!h the !limate will
!hange"
The Carbon Cycle
/n!rease atmos$heri! !arbon io5ie !on!entrations an warming tem$eratures are !ausing
!hanges in the Earth's natural !arbon !y!le that also !an &eeba!k on atmos$heri! !arbon
io5ie !on!entration" ,or now, $rimarily o!ean water, an to some e5tent e!osystems on lan,
are taking u$ about hal& o& our &ossil &uel an biomass burning emissions" This beha%ior slows
global warming by e!reasing the rate o& atmos$heri! !arbon io5ie in!rease, but that tren may
not !ontinue" 9armer o!ean waters will hol less issol%e !arbon, lea%ing more in the
atmos$here"
+bout hal& the !arbon io5ie emitte into the air &rom burning &ossil &uels issol%es in the o!ean"
This ma$ shows the total amount o& human0mae !arbon io5ie in o!ean water &rom the sur&a!e
to the sea &loor" Blue areas ha%e low amounts, while yellow regions are ri!h in anthro$ogeni!
!arbon io5ie" High amounts o!!ur where !urrents !arry the !arbon0io5ie0ri!h sur&a!e water
into the o!ean e$ths" -6a$ aa$te &rom Sabine et al", 200G"3
See The ?!ean's #arbon Balan!e on the Earth ?bser%atory"
?n lan, !hanges in the !arbon !y!le are more !om$li!ate" Fner a warmer !limate, soils,
es$e!ially thawing +r!ti! tunra, !oul release tra$$e !arbon io5ie or methane to the
atmos$here" /n!rease &ire &re;uen!y an inse!t in&estations also release more !arbon as trees
burn or ie an e!ay"
?n the other han, e5tra !arbon io5ie !an stimulate $lant growth in some e!osystems, allowing
these $lants to take aitional !arbon out o& the atmos$here" Howe%er, this e&&e!t may be
reu!e when $lant growth is limite by water, nitrogen, an tem$erature" This e&&e!t may also
iminish as !arbon io5ie in!reases to le%els that be!ome saturating &or $hotosynthesis"
Be!ause o& these !om$li!ations, it is not !lear how mu!h aitional !arbon io5ie $lants !an
take out o& the atmos$here an how long they !oul !ontinue to o so"
The im$a!t o& !limate !hange on the lan !arbon !y!le is e5tremely !om$le5, but on balance0
land carbon sinks will become less e%%icient as $lants rea!h saturation, where they !an no
longer take u$ aitional !arbon io5ie, an other limitations on growth o!!ur, an as lan starts
to a more !arbon to the atmos$here &rom warming soil, &ires, an inse!t in&estations" This will
result in a &aster in!rease in atmos$heri! !arbon io5ie an more ra$i global warming" /n some
!limate moels, !arbon !y!le &eeba!ks &rom both lan an o!ean a more than a egree
#elsius to global tem$eratures by 2100"
#mission Scenarios
S!ientists $rei!t the range o& likely tem$erature in!rease by running many $ossible &uture
s!enarios through !limate moels" +lthough some o& the un!ertainty in !limate &ore!asts !omes
&rom im$er&e!t knowlege o& !limate &eeba!ks, the most signi&i!ant sour!e o& un!ertainty in
these $rei!tions is that s!ientists on't know what !hoi!es $eo$le will make to !ontrol
greenhouse gas emissions"
The higher estimates are mae on the assum$tion that the entire worl will !ontinue using more
an more &ossil &uel $er !a$ita, a s!enario s!ientists !all @business0as0usual"A 6ore moest
estimates !ome &rom s!enarios in whi!h en%ironmentally &rienly te!hnologies su!h as &uel !ells,
solar $anels, an win energy re$la!e mu!h o& toay's &ossil &uel !ombustion"
/t takes e!aes to !enturies &or Earth to &ully rea!t to in!reases in greenhouse gases" #arbon
io5ie, among other greenhouse gases, will remain in the atmos$here long a&ter emissions are
reu!e, !ontributing to !ontinuing warming" /n aition, as Earth has warme, mu!h o& the
e5!ess energy has gone into heating the u$$er layers o& the o!ean" Cike a hot water bottle on a
!ol night, the heate o!ean will !ontinue warming the lower atmos$here well a&ter greenhouse
gases ha%e sto$$e in!reasing"
These !onsierations mean that $eo$le won't immeiately see the im$a!t o& reu!e greenhouse
gas emissions" #'en i% greenhouse gas concentrations stabili5ed today0 the planet would
continue to warm by about +/21C o'er the ne&t century be!ause o& greenhouses gases
alreay in the atmos$here"
See Earth's Big Heat Bu!ket, #orre!ting ?!ean #ooling, an #limate ND+( /& we immeiately
sto$$e emitting greenhouse gases, woul global warming sto$: to learn more about the o!ean
heat an global warming"
How Will Global Warming Change #arth?
The im$a!t o& in!rease sur&a!e tem$eratures is signi&i!ant in itsel&" But global warming will ha%e
aitional, &ar0rea!hing e&&e!ts on the $lanet" 9arming moi&ies rain&all $atterns, am$li&ies !oastal
erosion, lengthens the growing season in some regions, melts i!e !a$s an gla!iers, an alters
the ranges o& some in&e!tious iseases" Some o& these !hanges are alreay o!!urring"

4lobal warming will shi&t ma8or !limate $atterns, $ossibly $rolonging an intensi&ying the !urrent
rought in the F"S" Southwest" The white ring o& blea!he ro!k on the on!e0re !li&&s that hol
Cake )owell ini!ate the ro$ in water le%el o%er the $ast e!aeBthe result o& re$eate winters
with low snow&all" -)hotogra$h M2001 Tigresblan!o"3
Changing Weather
,or most $la!es, global warming will result in more &re;uent hot ays an &ewer !ool ays, with
the greatest warming o!!urring o%er lan" Conger, more intense heat wa%es will be!ome more
!ommon" Storms, &loos, an roughts will generally be more se%ere as $re!i$itation $atterns
!hange" Hurri!anes may in!rease in intensity ue to warmer o!ean sur&a!e tem$eratures"
+$art &rom ri%ing tem$eratures u$, global warming is likely to !ause bigger, more estru!ti%e
storms, leaing to an o%erall in!rease in $re!i$itation" 9ith some e5!e$tions, the tro$i!s will likely
re!ei%e less rain -orange3 as the $lanet warms, while the $olar regions will re!ei%e more
$re!i$itation -green3" 9hite areas ini!ate that &ewer than two0thirs o& the !limate moels agree
on how $re!i$itation will !hange" Sti$$le areas re%eal where more than <0 $er!ent o& the moels
agree" -M200* /)## 941 +R0G"3
/t is im$ossible to $in any single unusual weather e%ent on global warming, but emerging
e%ien!e suggests that global warming is alreay in&luen!ing the weather" Heat wa'es0
droughts0 and intense rain e'ents ha'e increased in %re6uency uring the last =0 years, an
human0inu!e global warming more likely than not !ontribute to the tren"
$ising Sea 7e'els
The weather isn't the only thing global warming will im$a!t( rising sea le%els will eroe !oasts an
!ause more &re;uent !oastal &looing" Some islan nations will isa$$ear" The $roblem is serious
be!ause u$ to 10 $er!ent o& the worl's $o$ulation li%es in %ulnerable areas less than 10 meters
-about 30 &eet3 abo%e sea le%el"
Between 12*0 an 2000, the sea le%el in!rease by 1"* millimeters $er year on a%erage, &or a
total sea le%el rise o& 221 millimeters -0"* &eet or 2"* in!hes3" 8nd the rate o% sea le'el rise is
accelerating/ Sin!e 1<<3, .+S+ satellites ha%e shown that sea le%els are rising more ;ui!kly,
about 3 millimeters $er year, &or a total sea le%el rise o& G2 millimeters -0"11 &eet or 1"2< in!hes3
between 1<<3 an 200<"
Sea le%els !re$t u$ about 20 !entimeters -*"< in!hes3 uring the twentieth !entury" Sea le%els are
$rei!te to go u$ between 12 an =< !m -*"1 an 23 in!hes3 o%er the ne5t !entury, though the
in!rease !oul be greater i& i!e sheets in 4reenlan an +ntar!ti!a melt more ;ui!kly than
$rei!te" Higher sea le%els will eroe !oastlines an !ause more &re;uent &looing" -4ra$h
M200* Robert Rohe"3
The /ntergo%ernmental )anel on #limate #hange -/)##3 estimates that sea le%els will rise
between 0"12 an 0"=< meters -0"=< to 1"< &eet3 by 20<< as warming sea water e5$ans, an
mountain an $olar gla!iers melt" These sea le%el !hange $rei!tions may be unerestimates,
howe%er, be!ause they o not a!!ount &or any in!reases in the rate at whi!h the worl's ma8or i!e
sheets are melting" +s tem$eratures rise, i!e will melt more ;ui!kly" Satellite measurements
re%eal that the 4reenlan an 9est +ntar!ti! i!e sheets are sheing about 12= billion tons o& i!e
$er yearBenough to raise sea le%els by 0"3= millimeters -0"01 in!hes3 $er year" /& the melting
a!!elerates, the in!rease in sea le%el !oul be signi&i!antly higher"
mpacting #cosystems
6ore im$ortantly, $erha$s, global warming is alreay $utting $ressure on e!osystems, the $lants
an animals that !o0e5ist in a $arti!ular !limate Eone, both on lan an in the o!ean" 9armer
tem$eratures ha%e alreay shi&te the growing season in many $arts o& the globe" The growing
season in $arts o& the .orthern Hemis$here be!ame two weeks longer in the se!on hal& o& the
20th !entury" S$ring is !oming earlier in both hemis$heres"
This !hange in the growing season a&&e!ts the broaer e!osystem" 6igrating animals ha%e to
start seeking &oo sour!es earlier" The shi&t in seasons may alreay be !ausing the li&e!y!les o&
$ollinators, like bees, to be out o& syn!h with &lowering $lants an trees" This mismat!h !an limit
the ability o& both $ollinators an $lants to sur%i%e an re$rou!e, whi!h woul reu!e &oo
a%ailability throughout the &oo !hain"
See BuEEing +bout #limate #hange to rea more about how the li&e!y!le o& bees is syn!he with
&lowering $lants"
9armer tem$eratures also e5ten the growing season" This means that $lants nee more water
to kee$ growing throughout the season or they will ry out, in!reasing the risk o& &aile !ro$s an
wil&ires" ?n!e the growing season ens, shorter, miler winters &ail to kill ormant inse!ts,
in!reasing the risk o& large, amaging in&estations in subse;uent seasons"
/n some e!osystems, ma5imum aily tem$eratures might !limb beyon the toleran!e o&
inigenous $lant or animal" To sur%i%e the e5treme tem$eratures, both marine an lan0base
$lants an animals ha%e starte to migrate towars the $oles" Those s$e!ies, an in some !ases,
entire e!osystems, that !annot ;ui!kly migrate or aa$t, &a!e e5tin!tion" The /)## estimates that
20030 $er!ent o& $lant an animal s$e!ies will be at risk o& e5tin!tion i& tem$eratures !limb more
than 1"=7 to 2"=7#"
mpacting People
The !hanges to weather an e!osystems will also a&&e!t $eo$le more ire!tly" Harest hit will be
those li%ing in low0lying !oastal areas, an resients o& $oorer !ountries who o not ha%e the
resour!es to aa$t to !hanges in tem$erature e5tremes an water resour!es" +s tro$i!al
tem$erature Eones e5$an, the rea!h o& some in&e!tious iseases, su!h as malaria, will !hange"
6ore intense rains an hurri!anes an rising sea le%els will lea to more se%ere &looing an
$otential loss o& $ro$erty an li&e"
?ne ine%itable !onse;uen!e o& global warming is sea0le%el rise" /n the &a!e o& higher sea le%els
an more intense storms, !oastal !ommunities &a!e greater risk o& ra$i bea!h erosion &rom
estru!ti%e storms like the intense nor'easter o& +$ril 200* that !ause this amage" -)hotogra$h
M200* metimbers2000"3
Hotter summers an more &re;uent &ires will lea to more !ases o& heat stroke an eaths, an to
higher le%els o& near0sur&a!e oEone an smoke, whi!h woul !ause more O!oe re' air ;uality
ays" /ntense roughts !an lea to an in!rease in malnutrition" ?n a longer time s!ale, &resh
water will be!ome s!ar!er, es$e!ially uring the summer, as mountain gla!iers isa$$ear,
$arti!ularly in +sia an $arts o& .orth +meri!a"
?n the &li$ sie, there !oul be @winnersA in a &ew $la!es" ,or e5am$le, as long as the rise in
global a%erage tem$erature stays below 3 egrees #elsius, some moels $rei!t that global &oo
$rou!tion !oul in!rease be!ause o& the longer growing season at mi0 to high0latitues,
$ro%ie ae;uate water resour!es are a%ailable" The same small !hange in tem$erature,
howe%er, woul reu!e &oo $rou!tion at lower latitues, where many !ountries alreay &a!e
&oo shortages" ?n balan!e, most resear!h suggests that the negati%e im$a!ts o& a !hanging
!limate &ar outweigh the $ositi%e im$a!ts" #urrent !i%iliEationBagri!ulture an $o$ulation
istributionBhas e%elo$e base on the !urrent !limate" The more the !limate !hanges, an the
more ra$ily it !hanges, the greater the !ost o& aa$tation"
Fltimately, global warming will im$a!t li&e on Earth in many ways, but the e5tent o& the !hange is
largely u$ to us" S!ientists ha%e shown that human emissions o& greenhouse gases are $ushing
global tem$eratures u$, an many as$e!ts o& !limate are res$oning to the warming in the way
that s!ientists $rei!te they woul" This o&&ers ho$e" Sin!e $eo$le are !ausing global warming,
$eo$le !an mitigate global warming, i& they a!t in time" 4reenhouse gases are long0li%e, so the
$lanet will !ontinue to warm an !hanges will !ontinue to ha$$en &ar into the &uture, but the
egree to whi!h global warming !hanges li&e on Earth e$ens on our e!isions now"
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