PARTITION OF IRAQ- AND THE COUNT DOWN TO CALIPHATE

Aron




We first warned that cheering up the Arab Springs, will come to cheering
Terrorism.
The seeming civilian uprising against the oppressive regimes in the Arab
world from Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Syria is a bad idea
foremost because the movement should fast transform into an Islamist Jihad.
That the Militant Islamists were waiting upon their wings to take control.

When we wrote this dissenting note as our analysis at Haindavakeralam and
social media Op Eds, we were frowned as alarmist.
But promptly within a year all we had pointed out came true as Islamist
movements such as Muslim Brotherhood, the Wahabis, the Salafists took over
country after country.
Subsequently as Dr Babu Suseelan of American Indian Intellectual Forum
explained the undercurrent of Islamist Extremism behind Arab Springs, we
added to his observation that the whole movement is moving towards the
Return of Caliphate.
Last week saw the first territorial manifestation of that nascent Sunni
caliphate, with all Sunni enclaves at Syria and Iraq coalescing wiping out the
borders and run over by a frighteningly brutal take over by the Islamic State of
Iraq and al-Sham, the ISIS.
WESTERN IMPERIAL DESIGN OF PARTITION OF IRAQ

Not many are aware that the blueprint for a full de facto Partition of Iraq into
three sub-nationalities was in fact proposed by Vice President Joe Biden and
endorsed by the American Senate as early as 2007.
It was shoved by President George Bush. But the works must have been going
on quietly- probably since it was unpopular with Iraqis and Arab street
opinion that is in denial of the Sectarian conflict that is now horrendously
surfacing for all to see.
But this Partition of Iraq fits well with the Western Imperial needs to contain
the threat of nuclear Iran and this need shared by the Wahabi Saudis.
CUTTING IRANS STRATEGIC DEPTH
The rise of Shiite Iran as a nuclear power poses a direct security and
existential threat to Israel as well as America.
An invasion of Iran is not the same such as the invasion of Iraq
It has to reckon with the Shiite militias allied to Iran such as the Hezbollah in
Lebanon, the Shiite run regimes of Iraq and Syria not to mention the Shia
majority populations of the entire region.
Iran therefore relies on this as sort of Strategic Depth if it comes to an actual
conflict with America.
The hyper focus on neutralizing this Iranian Strategic depth has evolved the
Policy that has enabled the Sunni Islamist movement to rise destabilizing the
entire region.
Both Obama administration and Saudi Wahabis have been pumping funds
and armaments to the Sunni Islamists and Syrian Rebels.
The Alawite Shia client state of Iran, Assads Syria has been crippled by a
Sunni insurrection.
ISIS and Al Qaedas Al Nusra front has taken over much of Syria and the
former has now taken all Sunni areas of Iraq knocking on the gates of
Baghdad.
Requests for American military intervention from the collapsing Iraqi regime
head Shiite Nur Maliki has been cold shouldered.
DRONES WERE PURSUING TALIBAN BUT NOT ISIS
It was ironical that American drones were taking out Taliban targets after the
Karachi airport attack in Pakistan while nothing was done about the swift
advance of Al Qaedas supposedly estranged offshoot and much more lethal
ISI right up to the outskirts of Bagdad city.
This we must keep in mind happened months after capture of Fallujah and
Ramadi giving plenty of time for ISIS to raise the resources and plan at
leisure.
SUNNI DOMINATION OF SHIITE MAJORITY IRAQ
Saddam Hussein was a Sunni Muslim and his Baath Party held Iraq together
continuing the historic domination of Sunni rule over the largely Shiite nation.
The formation of Iraq as British Protectorate and Kingdom of Iraq of king
Faisal I in 1921 was a Sunni monarchy.
The Sunni kingdom had to repeatedly crush both the Shiite and ethnic
Kurdish uprisings.
Throughout 1930s the Shiite resistance to Sunni rule was around the
Euphrates region while Kurdish North saw Yazidi uprisings, Christian
Assyrian revolt and later ethnic Kurdish national uprising.
The Baathists inherited this ethnic strife and continued the oppressive
containment.
The Sunni Dictatorship of Baath Party however, cleverly held together these
three uncompromising elements of Iraq together with Secular ideal of
National Socialism.
This Baathist nationalism was effective enough that expectations of the
Iranian Ayotollahs for the Iraqi Shiites to rise up against Saddam and side
with an Iranian invasion utterly failed- and ended up costing millions of lives
as Iran began losing territory in the long Iran-Iraq wars.
Bathists also used chemical weapons to crush a Kurdish rebellion prompted by
America during the Gulf war.

FIRST BREAKUP OF IRAQ
Abdel Ghani Al Yehya the Kurdish political analyst explains how the Partition of
Iraq proceeded in stages, but without mentioning the George Bush Sr
administrations hand instigating Kurdish ambitions and establishing their grounds.
It came in the wake of the Kurds 1991 uprisings, which culminated in the Wests
establishment of no-fly zones over northern and southern Iraq and the Kurds
creation of the Kurdish Autonomous Republic in an area of Iraqi Kurdistan.
As the years passed, the Kurds could no longer remain under the authority of a
central government, thus fulfilling the first two-way partition of Iraq.

BAATHIST QUEST FOR RESTORATION OF SUNNI RULE
When America invaded Iraq in ..and toppled Saddam and disbanded the
Baathists, the binding force of these ethnic entities was undone.
Yehya explains how this three way break up of Iraq proceeded.
The ethnic and sectarian cleansing of Kurds, Christians, Shiites and Yazidis by
extremist Sunnite factions started that same year.
Some Shiite militias in turn began cleansing Sunnites in Baghdad and the southern
provinces. Thousands of Iraqs Arab Sunnites were driven to Syria, Jordan, Egypt,
Kurdistan and elsewhere.
Mutual cleansing by the two sides, eventually carved Iraqs exclusively Arab
Sunnite region.
Shiites being the majority at last with democracy gained the control of Bagdad.
This historic Sunni hegemony of Iraq resolved to restore the status quo.
NAQSHBANDIA ORDER OF ELITE CORPS AND REVOLUTIONARY
GUARDS
Baathist elite of former Saddam regime loyalists, powerful top brass of elite
corps and intelligence with vast resources and social reach formed the
Naqshbandia Order after his execution.
The Baath propaganda projected the democratic regime as a Shiite puppet
state oppressing the Sunnis.
They stirred unrest among the Sunni enclaves and urged sunni militias to start
an ethnic cleansing of Shiites in their regions.
The Naqshbandia also lured the Sunni Tribes.
The Sunni Islamist Al Qaeda and Islamic State of Iraq launched a brutal
bombing spree of Shiite civilian and religious targets.
The attempts of Shiite led Bagdad regime to quell this Sunni insurrection only
added weight to their propaganda.
By way of retaliation Shiites began an ethnic cleansing of Sunnis and Kurds.
The Partition of Iraq as three distinct and mutually hostile regions of
conflicting ethnicities thus has finally become reality.
MISCALCUTION OF KHILAFAT
We can study how the emerging Caliphate and Khilafat forces are
misunderstood by both its foes and allies and how this suits its objectives.
The rapid advances of ISIS will heighten the strife between the Secular Arab
movements and Islamist movements such as Brotherhood.
Secular resistance to Radical Islamists has gained over Brotherhoods Morsi in
Egypt.
A Libyan general has started a similar military drive on his own in Libya
against Islamist groups.
On the other hand Secular Sunni Tribes and Baath Party remnants have joined
ranks with Islamist ISIS in Iraq.
American Policy has been glum and adversarial to the Secular Resistance.
The Khilafat call would draw into Islamist militancy the frustrated Islamist
movements and pragmatic secular movements that share immediate
objectives.
The rising tide of Khilaft might drown the Secular Resistance.

SUNNI AWAKENING MOVEMENT AND THE BAATHISTS
Iraqs largest Sunni tribal province became the hotbed of Sunni insurrection
against American occupation.
American generals brilliantly employed the Tribal chiefs resenting the brutish
sharia imposition of Al Qaeda to drive them away from Anbar.
The Baath Naqshbandia persuaded the Tribal Awakening at Anbar to join the
Sunni coalition against Bagdads perceived Shiite regime.
Disbanding of Iraqi Army by America was another fatal mistake that was a
misapplication of Post War Germany.
The unemployed bulk of Iraqi Army joined the Baathist Underground and the
Islamist Al Qaeda.
Being professional armymen, who had weathered decades of full fledged War
with Iran, their strategy and field tactics couldnt be matched by the
inexperience of Iraqi National Army.
Baath strategy to invite the Al Qaeda in Iraq that has meantime become
Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham the ISIS and enroll Tribal alliance that was
earlier helping Americans against Al Qaeda patched together a formidable
Sunni upsurge that is now knocking on the gates of Bagdad.
Baath calculations are that Islamist ISIS as worse than Al Qaeda will lead to an
eventual containment by American intervention.
The Baath elements will naturally inherit the Sunnistan once they are
neutralized. The Naqshbandia are not without reason called by Arabs as the
Deep State.
But history shows that in all coalitions between Jihadist Islamic forces and
secular entities, the Islamists inevitably gained the upper hand.
To understand this, we must understand the Caliphate as not homogenous
empire but disparate territories that owe allegiance to the Caliph.
If Baath remnants inherit Iraqi Sunnistan, and ISIS rolled back- even then the
Sunnistan will be a caliphate territory.
The Countdown to Islamic caliphate therefore has irreversibly begun.
AMERICAN MISCALCULATIONS OF RISING KHILAFAT
This do nothing American policy towards an Al Qaeda extreme faction taking
over key towns in Anbar province where the same Americans put together a
splendid Tribal Coalition called the Awakening against Islamists should be
taken note as a Policy blunder.
After paying such a dear cost with thousands of American soldiers laying down
their lives to wrest it form the Al Qaeda this should be such a serious
contradiction that cannot be explained except as deliberate Policy to get the Al
Qaeda where they are today.
The disowning of Al Qaeda of ISIS as repulsively violent is a story only fools
can believe so too their later grouping together as same reinvigorated Al qaeda
shouldnt surprise anyone except those fools.
After all in the purported distancing of Al Qaedas Zawahiri is more tactical
than ethical- so as not to estrange the Muslims by targeting them.
As long as the ends are served, and when they see this supposedly disowned
deviation of ISIS has not alienated them but made them more popular among
the sunni world are rallying to join the call of khilafat-
we can clearly see where all that is heading- a grand reunified Al Qaeda
stronger and in control of a nascent Caliphate.

CITIES OF THE CALIPHAS KHILAFAT BATTLE GROUNDS
We can also understand the conflict as a contest to reach one of the former
seats of the caliphs.
Damascus is now on the brink. The fall of Syria completely into hands of
Islamists will make that the seat of the New Caliphate of Islamists.
Baghdad is threatened. What is more likely is that pressure is being applied to
neutralize the Shiite dominance and Iran is being cajoled to acquiesce with the
Sunni component as territory to remain under the Sunni Islamist control.
In other words America is bargaining for the Sunni Islamists to be allowed to
carve out a Sunnistan in return to prop up a collapsing Shiite regime at
Baghdad.
The media is very patronizingly doing the spin- for the sunni underdog and
the need for Shia accommodation of demands for more power.
After ISIS which is fully aware of this game, suffers setbacks with a belated
American Air support or military aid to Iraqi state, the democratic Sunni
Islamists will be running the Sunnistan as its upshot.
The world may look at how swiftly close the Al Qaeda and ISIS came to
storming Baghdad and declare the caliphate but fast dissipated and were
rolled back.
What it might miss would be the defacto Partition of Iraq and the Caliphate
obtains territories that will go into the future shape of its map.
LEBANON, JORDAN NEXT KHILAFAT BATTLE GROUNDS
The khilafat uprising will now spell trouble at Lebanon where Hezbollah is
alarmed and mobilizing anticipating the arrival of shock waves of ISIS gains at
Iraq.
Jordan has considerable Sunni youth mostly Palestinians and other followers
of dreaded cult figure Zarkawi.
ANKARA AND CAIRO
Between Turkey and Egypt the toss must go to Cairo- since secularists and the
Army together has frustrated the Muslim Brotherhood.
The salafists must organize a new base for the ISIS there and Cairo was a
former Caliphate seat.
In Turkey however Islamist Party has effectively gained the upper hand in its
struggle with Secularists and the Army. ISIS should choose such a friendly
land to use it as its base and avoid immediate conflict. But that will follow.
SAUDI ARABIA AND UAE
The estrangement of Shiites will lead to sectarian destabilization.
The Saudi Holy sites will be threatened by a takeover.
Since Al Baghdadi the ISIS chief has vowed to destroy holiest Shiite shrines at
Karbala and Najaf as Polytheist abominations, the global fallout of such a
desecration would be terrible.
PAKISTAN
The impact on Pakistan is predictable. The quest to obtain Kashmir will now
reach new heights of frenzied mobilization.
But the real impact will on the Shiites.
Escalation of attacks on Shiites will be certain and Iran would actively get
involved.
The new sectarian conflict will kick start the breaking up of Pakistan.
INDIA
The Indian Government has to be very vigilant about the fast emerging threats
that go beyond borders.
Other than the heat at Kashmir, the Sunni Wahabi terrorism will escalate
encouraged by the ISIS gains.
More youth will now be ready to believe that the Return of the Caliphate is a
possible mission and so might take up the Khilafat call.
The ISIS has impressed the Islamist Radicals around the world with its
brutality against Infidels. In India this will translate into more gruesome
killings of Hindu Leadership and cadres.
Sectarian conflict and attacks against Shiite shrines such as we are used to
witness in Pakistan must be now more imminent if that deepens abroad in the
Arab world.
On one side Islamic terrorism will acquire a new confidence, and so the
attacks more daring.
And on the other hand, new conflict lines will appear between Muslims as
Shiites and Sunnis.
All this calls for setting up of a dedicated strategic team to monitor and
deployable field units for covert actions.
MONITORS AND COVERT OPERATIONS
India will now be a high priority for Terrorists.
Therefore Indians and Indian installations will come under increasing threats.
The government must adapt a new strategy- of placing among Indian
presences and assets in vulnerable locations such as Middle East, Africa and
Far East such as Indonesia field Monitors.
They must be coupled to both evacuation facilities and covert rescue
operations.
What must be avoided at all costs is any wrong signal that India would only
react after such things happen or that it is incapable of hot pursuits or covert
rescue missions.
To the menace of ISIS, Mother India must be like Isis the Egyptian Goddess.
Isis wife of Osiris the God of Life and Death, who avenged his murder through
her son Horus who challenged and destroyed Seth, lord of the deserts and
chaos.