Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix
All rights reserved. Standard Chartered Bank 2014 http://research.standardchartered.com Asia l Emerging Companies 30 May 2014 Double in 3, Triple in 5 ASEAN, Issue 53 Goodpack, Mitra Adiperkasa and Thaicom Performance by market (22-29 May): ASEAN small caps increased 0.7%, outperforming large caps by 1.2ppt. The Singapore small- cap market was the best performer (+1.5%), while the Philippines was the worst performer (-1.6%). Performance by sector (22 - 29 May): Industrials was the best performer among small caps (+2.0%), while Telecom Services performed the worst (-1.4%). Valuations: The Philippines is the cheapest small-cap market at 14.6x 2014E PER, followed by Thailand at 15.7x. Singapore and Indonesia are the most expensive at 18.5x and 16.2x, respectively.
Top picks Company name Ticker Share price (LC) Price target (LC) +/- (%) Ace Hardware ACES IJ 885 1,049 +18.5 Matahari Dept Store LPPF IJ 14,375 17,105 +19.0 Major Cineplex MAJOR TB 17.10 22.43 +31.2 MK Restaurant M TB 57.75 65.90 +14.1 OSIM International OSIM SP 2.80 3.57 +27.5 Siloam Int. Hospitals SILO IJ 13,200 13,982 +5.9 Universal Robina URC PM 150.00 195.60 +30.4 Share price as of 29 May 2014 Source: FactSet
Top 5 winners and losers: Past week
Source: Bloomberg
Upcoming corporate access Upcoming corporate access Company Location Type Date Double in 3, Triple in 5 United Kingdom Conference 2-3 Jun Double in 3, Triple in 5 USA Conference 5-6 Jun KrisEnergy Singapore Lunch 23-Jun OSIM Singapore Lunch 1-Aug Double in 3, Triple in 5 Hong Kong Conference 3-4 Nov Double in 3, Triple in 5 Singapore Conference 6-7 Nov Source: Standard Chartered Research Recent company meetings/calls Recent company meetings / calls Company Country Type Date Workpoint Thailand Call 28-May Mitra Adiperkasa Indonesia Call 28-May Selamat Sempurna Indonesia Call 28-May Eu Yang Sang Singapore Meeting 29-May Courts Asia Singapore Meeting 30-May LMRT Singapore Call 30-May Pakuwon Jati Indonesia Call 30-May Singapore Post Singapore Call 30-May Source: Standard Chartered Research Upcoming company meetings/calls Upcoming company meetings / calls Company Country Type Date Sarana Menara Nusantara Indonesia Meeting 3-Jun Ace Hardware Indonesia Call 4-Jun Mitra Adiperkasa Indonesia Call 4-Jun MC group Thailand Call 4-Jun Parkson Retail Asia Singapore Call 4-Jun Bangkok dusit medical Thailand Call 5-Jun Berjaya Food Malaysia Call 5-Jun Overseas Education Singapore Meeting 5-Jun Source: Standard Chartered Research Stock highlights Key ideas and initiations Coverage highlight Goodpack (GPACK SP, OP): Goodpack announced that US-based private equity firm KKR has offered to acquire the company at SGD 2.50/share. The price is close to the estimated offer price of SGD 2.51 in our leveraged-buyout (LBO) analysis and represents a 23% premium to the closing price prior to the announcement. We are disappointed by the offer price and surprised that the Lam family would sell the company at this level, as we value Goodpack at SGD 2.71/share. We believe the Lam family's willingness to sell at this price raises questions about Goodpack's growth prospects, including the potential for breaking into the autoparts industry. The offer is via a scheme of arrangement and requires 75% shareholder approval. According to Bloomberg, the five largest institutional shareholders in Goodpack hold 23% of the shares. (Momentum is still strong, 29 May 2014) Coverage highlight Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ, OP): Everstone Capital, a Singapore-based private equity firm, is buying a 51% stake in Dominos Pizza Indonesia (DPI). MAPI will not book any divestment gain, as this transaction is structured as a capital injection by Everstone into DPI. We expect the divestment to yield a 30bps increase in EBIT margin and there could be 80bps further upside if MAPI divests Burger King (BK). Both DPI and BK contributed to an EBIT loss of IDR 60bn in 2013. MAPI is trading at 15.7x 2015E PER, a 12% discount to peers. (Waiting for expansion into new brands, 29 May 2014) Visit note Thaicom PCL (THCOM TB, NR): THAICOM is the only satellite service operator in Thailand. It was granted a 30-year BTO agreement by the government and became a monopoly business in 1991. To support growing demand from the launch of digital TV in Thailand and rising internet usage, THAICOM plans to launch two satellites, in July 2014 and 2H16, to add to its three current satellites. THAICOM trades at 19.5x 2015E PER, with a 2.6% dividend yield, based on Bloomberg consensus. (Thaicom PCL, 29 May 2014)
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Stephen Hui +65 6596 8514 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Branch Alvin Witirto +65 6596 8530 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Branch Rashad Latheef +65 6596 8505 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Branch Munchuga Khajornkowit +65 6596 8504 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Branch J eremy Sutch, CFA +852 3983 8533 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank (HK) Limited J eremy Sutch, CFA +852 3983 8533 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank (HK) Limited Stephen Hui Stephen.Hui@sc.com +65 6596 8514 Pauline Lee Pauline-Hwee-Chen.Lee@sc.com +65 6596 8505 Alvin Witirto Alvin.Witirto @sc.com +65 6596 Alvin Witirto Alvin.Witirto@sc.com +65 6596 8530
Jeremy Sutch Jeremy.Sutch@sc.com +852 3983 8533
Jeremy Sutch Jeremy.Sutch@sc.com +852 3983 8533
Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 2 Contents Bottom-up: Top picks 3 Goodpack 7 Mitra Adiperkasa 8 THAICOM Public Company 9 Top-down view 10 Country focus Singapore 13 Country focus Malaysia 15 Country focus Indonesia 17 Country focus Thailand 19 Country focus The Philippines 21 ASEAN emerging companies: Coverage universe valuation table 28 ASEAN emerging companies: Coverage universe financials table 29
Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 3 Bottom-up: Top picks Figure 1: Top picks Company name Ticker Mkt cap (USD mn) 6-month AD Liq. (USD mn) Share price (LC) Price target (LC) +/- (%) PER FY1E PER FY2E PBR FY1E EV/ EBITDA FY1E Div. yield FY1E ROCE FY1E 14D RSI Ace Hardware ACES IJ 1,306 1.27 885 1,049 +18.5 24.3 20.0 6.3 17.1 0.8 34.8 66 Matahari Dept Store LPPF IJ 3,609 3.80 14,375 17,105 +19.0 25.5 18.9 10.1 17.2 1.6 45.5 47 Major Cineplex MAJOR TB 465 1.12 17.10 22.43 +31.2 15.8 13.7 2.5 8.2 5.4 12.9 30 MK Restaurant M TB 1,599 2.42 57.75 65.90 +14.1 23.0 21.0 4.0 14.0 3.0 18.9 61 OSIM International OSIM SP 1,656 2.84 2.80 3.57 +27.5 18.3 15.8 4.8 11.4 2.5 30.8 51 Siloam Int. Hospitals SILO IJ 1,190 8.86 13,200 13,982 +5.9 127.3 85.4 8.7 30.0 0.1 8.5 77 Universal Robina URC PM 7,459 7.65 150.00 195.60 +30.4 27.6 24.2 6.0 18.0 2.4 24.9 53 Share prices as of 29 May 2014. Sources: Bloomberg, Companies, Standard Chartered Research estimates
ACE Hardware Dominant home-improvement retailer: Ace Hardware is Indonesias dominant home improvement retailer with 95 stores at end-2013. In contrast, its closest competitor, Pongs Do It Best, has only 16 stores. Stabilising and potentially improving margins: Ace Hardwares EBIT margins declined to 15.5% in 2013 from 16.2% in 2012, but margins appear to have stabilised, with 1Q14 EBIT margin of 16%. SSSG may accelerate: Ace Hardwares SSSG decelerated to 4.9% in 2013 from 10.7% in 2012, but we see signs that demand may improve. SSSG ouside Java accelerated to 10.1% in 3M14 versus 4.3% in 2013. Stores outside Java were the key growth driver in 2011 and 2012, with the fastest SSSG of 30% and 16%, respectively. Matahari Department Store Market leadership: Matahari Department Store (MDS) pioneered the department store concept in Indonesia and had a leading 31% share of sector sales in 2011, based on Euromonitor estimates. Limited direct competition: MDS targets the middle-income segment, while the second- and third-largest department store operators, Ramayana and Mitra Adiperkasa, target the lower and mid-to-upper income segments, respectively. Robust profitability: MDS had one of the highest ROCEs (48%) and EBIT margins (14%) among ASEAN department store operators in 2013. Major Cineplex Dominant: Major Cineplex is the dominant cinema operator in Thailand, with 479 cinema screens at end-2013, and over 80% of the cinema screens in Thailand. Growth: Majors business has strong operating leverage in increasing its concession-to-box office sales ratio, as the concession segment has a higher gross margin (69%) than box office (16%). We forecast 2013-16 revenue/net profit CAGRs of 8%/16%. Attractive valuation: Majors valuations are appealing, in our view, given its growth outlook and high dividend yield. MK Restaurants Dominant Suki brand: At end-2013, MK Restaurants (MK) had 381 MK Suki restaurants in Thailand, making it by far the largest suki chain in the country. We regard MK as a top brand associated with clean, healthy food and quality family dining. Scalable network: MK has its own central kitchens, staff training school and supply chain. It opened a new central kitchen in February 2014, doubling its restaurant capacity to 1,000 (as of end-2013, it operated 506 restaurants). Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 4 Underpenetrated network: We believe there is still room for MK to expand in Thailand, and the companys second brand, Yayoi, is underpenetrated, with only 113 restaurants as of end-2013. We believe MK can add new brands, given its expertise in restaurant operations and infrastructure. OSIM International Strong brand: OSIM is Asias leading massage-chair brand, with leading market shares in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and China. Robust profitability and cash flow: OSIM has a high ROCE and strong cash flow. Upside from TWG Tea: OSIM increased its stake in TWG Tea to 70% in January 2014. We expect TWG to contribute significantly to OSIMs growth. TWG Tea is a strong brand with robust growth potential, in our view. Siloam Internasional Hospitals Market leader: Siloam International Hopsitals is the largest private hospital player in Indonesia with a 7.4% market share by bed capacity in 2012. Its capacity is more than double the second-largest operator, Mitra Keluarga (3.0% share), according to Frost & Sullivan. As of end-2013, Siloam operated 16 hospitals with 3,700 beds. Robust growth outlook for 2013-16E: By end-2017, Siloam plans to triple its hospital network to 40 hospitals with 10,000 beds. We forecast 2013-16 revenue and earnings CAGRs of 44% and 86%, respectively, driven by volume growth and operating leverage, as new hospitals take three-to-five years to mature. Attractive valuation: Siloam trades at EV/EBITDA multiples similar to regional hospital peers, but offers an EBITDA CAGR of 63% for 2013-16E, compared to only 14-17% for peers. Universal Robina Strong regional brand: Universal Robina (URC) is a leading F&B brand in Southeast Asia with a dominant position in its domestic market, the Philippines. It is also the number-one biscuit and wafer brand in Thailand, and the number-two ready-to- drink tea brand in Vietnam. Multi-product portfolio: We like URCs strong multi-product portfolio, which contrasts with many leading ASEAN F&B brands that specialise in a particular product. We believe the companys strength across different product segments provides significant room to innovate and grow. Top-class management: We believe URC has one of the strongest management teams in Southeast Asia.
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Figure 2: Team coverage by sector
Company name Ticker Rec Mkt cap (USD mn) 6-month AD liq. (USD mn) Share price (LCY) Price target (LCY) "+/-" (%) % Change 1W % Change YTD % Change 12M FYE PER FY1E (x) PER FY2E (x) EPS CAGR (FY0- FY2E) PEG (x) PBR FY1E (x) Price to sales FY1E (x) EV/ EBITDA FY1E (x) Div yield FY1E (%) ROCE FY1E (%) RoE FY1E (%) Consumer discretionary
30 May 2014 7 This note was originally published on 29 May 2014. Click here to view the full report
Goodpack Disappointing offer price Goodpack announced on 27 May 2014 that private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) offered to acquire the company at SGD 2.50/share. The offer price represents a 7% premium to Goodpacks share price on 23 May 2014 (last traded price prior to the announcement) and a 23% premium to the close price on 18 March 2014 (prior to the announcement of a possible offer). We are disappointed by the offer price, as we value Goodpack at SGD 2.71/share, 8% above the offer price. The offer is via a scheme of arrangement and requires 75% shareholder approval.
OUTPERFORM (unchanged)
Benchmarking the offer price. We estimate that the offer price translates to 17.9x 2015E PER, while our DCF-based price target for Goodpack translates to 19.4x 2015E PER. The offer price translates to a 10% discount to Brambles on 2015E PER and an 11% premium on 2015E EV/EBITDA. We analysed two deals Brambles acquisition of Pallecon (2012) and China Merchants Groups (CMG) acquisition of Loscam (2010) to compare valuations. These deals were carried out at 7.4-11.7x historical EV/EBITDA (the offer price translates to 11x 2015E EV/EBITDA). Surprised by the deal. The offer price is close to our estimated offer price of SGD 2.51/share in our leveraged-buyout (LBO) analysis (please see LBO analysis shows a high offer price is unlikely, dated 25 April 2014). We are surprised that the Lam family is selling the company for SGD 2.50/share, as it represents only a 6% premium to Goodpacks share price of SGD 2.35 on 12 January 2011. Fundamentally, we view the offer price as low, and believe the Lam family's willingness to sell at this price raises questions about Goodpack's growth prospects, such as the potential to break into the auto-parts industry. Deal may not proceed smoothly. As KKRs offer is via a scheme of arrangement, the deal requires 75% shareholder approval. In the event of a competing offer, KKR also has the option to switch to a voluntary conditional cash offer which will require 50% approval. We note that the Lam family owns 32% of Goodpack, but given our view that the offer price is low, we anticipate some shareholders may reject the offer. According to Bloomberg, the five largest institutional shareholders hold 23.2% of shares. We also believe there may be potential counter offers, as CMG (unlisted) and Brambles (BXB AU, NR) have aligned business strategies.
Source: Company, Standard Chartered Research estimates
30 May 2014 8 This note was originally published on 29 May 2014. Click here to view the full report Mitra Adiperkasa One step in the right direction MAPI recently announced that Everstone Capital is buying a 51% stake in Dominos Pizza (DPI). Management said it is in talks with potential buyers for its Burger King franchise. We maintain our Outperform rating and raise our 2015-16E earnings estimates by 4-5% to reflect a higher EBIT margin post-divestment of its loss-making F&B businesses. We assume that Burger King (BK) is divested in 2H14. We cut our price target to IDR 6,206 (from IDR 6,879) to factor in MAPIs higher working capital needs and the absence of divestment gains from DPI and BK in 2014. MAPI is trading at 15.7x 2015E PER, a 12% discount to Indonesian discretionary retailers. Our price target implies a reasonable target multiple of 18.7x 2015E PER.
OUTPERFORM (unchanged)
Divestment of Dominos Pizza. Everstone Capital, a Singapore- based private equity firm, is buying a 51% stake in DPI. MAPI will not book any divestment gain from this transaction, as it is structured as a capital injection by Everstone into DPI. This will dilute MAPIs stake in DPI to 49% from 100% in 2013. MAPI cannot undertake a 100% divestment, as Indonesia restricts foreign ownership in foodservices to 51%. Margins could improve in 2015. We estimate that the divestment of DPI could yield a 30bps improvement in EBIT margin and there could be a further 80bps upside after a potential divestment of BK. We expect this margin upside to occur largely in 2015, as the transactions are likely to be completed only in 2H14. The two business units contributed IDR 60bn of EBIT loss in 2013. Caveat emptor. While we see this divestment as a positive, there are still downside risks for MAPI in this consolidation year: (1) weaker-than-expected sales growth in the next six months, (2) margin weakness beyond 2Q14 if discounting continues, and (3) delays in addressing inventory management issues. We cut our 2014E earnings by 9% to reflect lower gross profit margin due to ongoing discounting to reduce excess inventory. High risk, high returns. MAPIs share price has corrected 25% since February. On a 12-month forward PER basis, MAPIs trading premium to Ramayana has narrowed to 28%, compared to a three- year historical average of 55%. MAPI is trading at 15.7x 2015E PER and our price target implies 19% potential upside.
Source: Company, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Share price performance
Source: Company, FactSet
Alvin Witirto +65 6596 8530 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Branch Stephen Hui +65 6596 8514 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Branch
30 May 2014 9 This note was originally published on 29 May 2014. Click here to view the full report THAICOM Public Company NOT RATED NON-COVERED COMPANY VISIT NOTE
Standard Chartered Equity Research does not cover this company and nothing herein should be interpreted to be a recommendation or price target with respect to the company.
PRICE as of 28 May 2014 THB 38.50
Key points Monopoly business: THAICOM is the only satellite service operator in Thailand and it operates the only broadband satellite in Asia-Pacific. Growth driver: Management expects the launch of digital TV in Thailand and rising internet usage to drive demand for their broadcast and broadband satellites. They believe the number of HD channels in Thailand will increase from 54 at end-2013 to c.470 by 2020. Expanding capacity: THAICOM currently operates three satellites and plans to launch a new broadcast satellite (THAICOM 7) in July 2014, and another in 2H16 (THAICOM 8) to support growing demand.
Bloomberg code: THCOM TB PER historical (x) 37.4 Mkt cap (USD mn) 1,291 Yield historical (%) 1.2 12M range (THB) 27.75-43.75 P/B historical (x) 2.7 3M value traded (USD mn) 3.80 ROE (%) 7.3 No. of shares (m) 1,096 Net gearing (%) 40.8 Est. free float (%) 46.4 Net debt (cash) (THB mn) 6,363 Established 1991 Historical EPS (THB) 1.03 Listed 1994 EPS 3Y CAGR (%) -2.12 Secondary placement NA EPS 7Y CAGR (%) NA Auditors, since KPMG, 2013 Historical DPS (THB) 0.45 Year-end December DPS 3Y CAGR (%) NA Major shareholder Shin Corporation 41.14% Source: Annual report What THAICOM does (and why) THAICOM is a satellite company in Thailand. It operates satellite and related services, as well as telephone, internet access and media services. Its business involves domestic and international customers in Asia, Africa and Australia. Why we visited THAICOM THAICOM was established in 1991 by Shin Corporation. It was granted a 30-year domestic Communication Satellite Operating Agreement by the Ministry of Information and Communication Technology (MICT) and became the countrys sole satellite service provider. Valuations and share price performance THAICOM trades at 19.5x 2015 PER, with 2.6% dividend yield, based on Bloomberg consensus. The stock is down 5% YTD, while the SET has risen 8%. Did you know Broadcast satellites rotate at the same speed as the Earth, which keeps their transmissions stable
Share price performance (Bt)
Source: FactSet
Revenue breakdown, 2013
Source: Company
22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 THAICOM Public Company STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX (Rebased) 88% 7% 5% Satellite service Oversea telephone service Internet and media service Munchuga Khajornkowit +65 6596 8504 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Branch Stephen Hui +65 6596 8514 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Branch
Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 10 Top-down view Price performance Figure 4: Price performance by market Price performance ADVT Past week YTD
2 wk/1M
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Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC ASEAN 0.7% -0.6% 1.2%
10.4% 7.5% 3.0% 1.2 1.1 0.1
1.1 1.0 0.1 Singapore 1.5% 0.5% 1.0%
6.1% 1.3% 4.8% 1.2 0.9 0.3
1.2 1.1 0.1 Malaysia 0.2% -0.2% 0.4%
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0.8 0.9 0.0 Indonesia -0.4% -0.8% 0.5%
25.3% 26.8% -1.5% 1.0 1.2 -0.2
1.1 1.0 0.0 Thailand 1.0% -2.0% 3.0%
14.4% 6.8% 7.6% 1.2 1.1 0.0
1.2 1.1 0.1 Philippines -1.6% -3.1% 1.5%
18.2% 16.4% 1.8% 0.9 1.0 -0.1
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Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Figure 5: Price performance by sector Price performance Change in ADVT
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YTD
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Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC Consumer discretionary 0.6% -0.8% 1.4%
1.1 -40.7 41.8 Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Valuation Figure 6: Valuation by country PER PBR ROE
2013 2014E 2013 2014E 2013
Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC ASEAN 17.5 15.2 2.3 16.5 14.9 1.6 1.4 2.2 -0.7 1.5 2.1 -0.6 8.2% 14.2% -5.9% Singapore 19.0 14.8 4.1 18.5 14.4 4.1 1.1 1.5 -0.3 1.2 1.5 -0.3 6.2% 10.0% -3.8% Malaysia 18.1 17.3 0.8 15.8 16.8 -1.0 1.6 2.3 -0.7 1.5 2.2 -0.7 8.4% 13.3% -4.8% Indonesia 17.2 15.9 1.3 16.2 15.8 0.4 1.8 3.7 -1.9 1.7 3.4 -1.8 10.3% 23.0% -12.7% Thailand 16.0 11.9 4.1 15.7 11.6 4.1 1.8 2.0 -0.2 1.8 1.9 0.0 11.0% 16.7% -5.7% Philippines 15.6 19.2 -3.6 14.6 19.3 -4.6 1.3 3.2 -1.9 1.5 2.8 -1.4 8.4% 16.5% -8.1% Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 11 Figure 7: Valuation by sector PER PBR ROE
2013 2014E 2013 2014E 2013
Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC Small caps Large caps SC-LC Consumer discretionary 19.6 16.8 2.8 19.4 15.8 3.6 1.8 2.2 -0.4 1.7 2.2 -0.5 9.0% 13.2% -4.2% Consumer staples 19.6 22.9 -3.3 15.6 21.2 -5.5 2.2 3.0 -0.8 2.1 3.0 -0.8 11.6% 13.0% -1.4% Energy 32.5 10.9 21.6 22.6 9.6 12.9 1.5 1.5 0.0 1.6 1.4 0.2 4.6% 14.2% -9.6% Financials 12.1 12.8 -0.7 12.8 12.8 0.0 1.1 1.7 -0.6 1.1 1.7 -0.5 9.2% 13.6% -4.4% Healthcare 22.3 NA NA 21.6 NA NA 2.8 NA NA 2.7 NA NA 12.7% NA NA Industrials 53.6 17.9 35.6 31.3 17.7 13.6 1.5 2.0 -0.5 1.6 1.9 -0.3 2.6% 10.9% -8.4% Information technology 15.8 14.3 1.5 13.6 13.1 0.5 1.7 2.6 -1.0 1.7 2.3 -0.6 11.8% 18.5% -6.8% Materials 21.5 18.0 3.4 22.9 18.4 4.5 1.0 3.8 -2.7 1.1 3.9 -2.8 5.6% 20.8% -15.2% Telecom services 17.9 15.4 2.6 17.8 15.7 2.1 3.5 2.5 1.0 3.3 2.4 0.9 19.4% 16.1% 3.4% Utilities 14.5 14.5 0.0 13.2 13.2 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.0 1.7 1.7 0.0 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Top and bottom performers
Figure 8: Top performers past week Figure 9: Bottom performers past week
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 10: Top performers YTD Figure 11: Bottom performers YTD
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30 May 2014 12 Historical view Figure 12: Historical PER band MSCI ASEAN Based on forward PER, the MSCI ASEAN small-cap index is trading at 1.64x SD above its historical seven-year average Figure 13: MSCI ASEAN PER SC premium/discount to LC Based on forward PER, the MSCI ASEAN small-cap index is trading at a 6% premium to the large-cap index
Source: MSCI Source: MSCI
Figure 14: Historical PBR band chart MSCI ASEAN Based on forward PBR basis, the MSCI ASEAN small-cap index is trading at 0.01x SD above its historical seven-year average Figure 15: MSCI ASEAN PBR SC premium/discount to LC Based on forward PBR basis, the MSCI ASEAN small-cap index is trading at a 30% discount to the large-cap index.
Source: MSCI Source: MSCI
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 Feb-14 P E R
Small Cap Mean +/- 1 SD Large Cap Discount -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Aug-06 Sep-07 Oct-08 Nov-09 Dec-10 Jan-12 Feb-13 Mar-14 P r e m i u m
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Discount Mean +/- 1 SD Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 13 Country focus Singapore Historical view Figure 16: Historical PER band chart MSCI Singapore Based on PER forward, the MSCI Singapore small cap index is trading at 1.36x SD above its historical seven-year average Figure 17: Historical PBR band chart MSCI Singapore Based on PBR forward, the MSCI Singapore small cap index is trading at 0.61xSD below its historical seven-year average
Source: MSCI Source: MSCI
Top and bottom performers Figure 18: Top performers past week Figure 19: Bottom performers past week
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 20: Top performers YTD Figure 21: Bottom performers YTD
Small Cap Mean +/- 1 SD Large Cap Discount -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 Feb-14 P B R
Small Cap Mean +/- 1 SD Large Cap Discount 19% 13% 11% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Y I N G L I
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-2% -2% -2% -2% -2% -2% -3% -4% -4% -5% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% R T R Y
S P
B R E A D
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A R A
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P R A
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A S L
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L I G O
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I F A R
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B I G
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48% 33% 33% 32% 32% 30% 29% 29% 27% 27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% B R E A D
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A S T
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H F C
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C W T
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U E M
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V A R D
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B A L
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-22% -23% -23% -23% -24% -25% -48% -61% -62% -65% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% S U P E R
S P
T I H
S P
E Z R A
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C S E
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F E H
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O T M L
S P
L I G O
S P
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A C A P
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Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 14 Watch list Figure 22: Singapore watch list
Company name Ticker Rec Mkt cap (USD mn) 6- month AD liq. (USD mn) Share price (LCY) Price target (LCY) "+/-" (%) % Change 1W % Change YTD % Change 12M FYE PER FY1E (x) PER FY2E (x) EPS CAGR (FY0- FY2E) PEG (x) PBR FY1E (x) Price to sales FY1E (x) EV/ EBITDA FY1E (x) Div yield FY1E (%) ROCE FY1E (%) RoE FY1E (%) Consumer discretionary
Courts Asia Ltd COURTS SP NR 237 0.29 0.54 NA NA 3 -13 -49 Mar-13 9.6 8.2 -9.0 -0.9 1.0 0.3 8.0 3.0 29.6 10.2 Eu Yan Sang Intl. EYSAN SP OP 296 0.17 0.84 1.03 23 1 -3 14 Jun-13 17.5 15.8 15.8 1.0 2.3 1.0 9.9 3.1 12.3 13.4 Hour Glass Ltd. HG SP NR 339 0.13 1.81 NA NA 6 8 -2 Mar-14 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 17.7 NA OSIM Intl. OSIM SP OP 1,638 2.85 2.80 3.57 28 1 22 37 Dec-13 18.1 15.6 22.4 0.7 4.8 2.9 11.3 2.5 30.8 32.3 Parkson Retail Asia PRA SP OP 485 0.07 0.90 1.28 42 -2 -7 -42 Jun-13 16.4 12.9 12.4 1.0 2.4 1.3 7.4 6.1 16.6 14.6 Aggregate 18.3 15.3 -0.2 -82.8 18.3 1.6 11.4 2.9 Consumer Staples Breadtalk Group BREAD SP NR 299 0.47 1.33 NA NA -2 48 37 Dec-13 23.8 19.9 17.8 1.1 NA 0.6 6.1 1.6 19.7 15.1 Del Monte Pacific DELM SP NR 610 0.89 0.59 NA NA 5 -3 -34 Dec-13 15.2 11.2 84.0 0.1 2.2 1.1 9.9 3.0 17.4 15.0 Food Empire Hldg. FEH SP NR 174 0.05 0.41 NA NA 1 -24 -39 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 14.8 NA JB Foods JBF SP NR 94 0.03 0.25 NA NA 0 -18 -44 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 27.5 NA Petra Foods Ltd PETRA SP OP 1,864 0.84 3.92 4.00 2 -1 23 -6 Dec-13 27.3 24.0 15.9 1.5 5.7 3.5 15.1 0.9 31.6 21.9 Sheng Siong Group SSG SP NR 684 0.35 0.62 NA NA 1 2 -6 Dec-13 19.4 18.2 10.0 1.8 5.4 1.2 12.6 4.7 21.7 28.4 Sino Grandness SFGI SP NR 321 1.23 0.69 NA NA 5 -6 -10 Dec-13 4.1 3.5 17.8 0.2 1.0 0.7 3.3 1.5 32.4 28.8 Super Group SUPER SP IL 1,328 2.27 1.48 2.09 41 3 -22 -38 Dec-13 18.2 16.0 12.5 1.3 3.3 2.7 12.7 2.7 20.7 18.7 Yeo Hiap Seng YHS SP NR 1,007 0.07 2.20 NA NA 0 -8 -21 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 14.8 4.0 Aggregate 20.0 17.7 2.2 8.2 20.0 2.0 12.4 1.7 Healthcare Biosensors Intl. BIG SP NR 1,292 3.57 0.96 NA NA -5 14 -18 Mar-14 23.1 20.0 26.4 0.8 1.1 3.9 12.1 0.9 NA 5.1 IHH Healthcare IHH SP NR 10,470 0.12 1.61 NA NA -1 7 -1 Dec-13 43.4 36.5 NA NA 1.8 NA 19.6 0.4 6.6 4.1 Raffles Medical RFMD SP OP 1,632 1.05 3.67 4.16 13 3 18 9 Dec-13 27.9 24.9 13.2 1.9 4.0 5.4 20.1 1.6 16.4 15.5 Aggregate 38.7 32.6 18.5 1.8 38.7 4.4 17.7 0.6 Industrials Amtek Engineering AMTK SP OP NA 0.00 0.48 NA NA -1 23 18 Jun-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ASL Marine Hldg. ASL SP IL NA 0.00 0.69 NA NA -2 -4 -3 Jun-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Boustead Singapore BOCS SP OP 783 0.70 1.86 2.02 9 0 10 36 Mar-14 16.7 14.9 -11.9 -1.2 3.0 1.8 10.2 2.7 18.5 18.2 China XLX Fertiliser CXLX SP UP 307 0.13 0.39 0.28 -27 0 1 -8 Dec-13 6.2 6.3 50.1 0.1 0.9 0.4 5.8 3.8 10.4 14.9 CWT CWT SP OP 855 0.87 1.79 1.95 9 3 32 1 Dec-13 10.4 8.9 6.6 1.4 1.5 0.1 9.2 1.7 12.5 14.9 Ezion Holdings EZI SP OP 2,285 10.75 2.19 2.70 23 1 -1 8 Dec-13 10.8 9.0 28.2 0.3 1.9 4.0 10.5 0.0 12.6 21.7 Ezra Holdings EZRA SP IL 814 5.26 1.06 1.05 -1 1 -23 10 Aug-13 19.4 10.6 NA NA 0.7 0.5 12.5 0.0 4.8 5.2 Goodpack GPACK SP OP 1,088 1.46 2.46 2.71 10 3 26 50 Jun-13 19.6 17.6 11.9 1.5 2.8 5.1 12.0 2.6 12.8 15.4 Hi-P International HIP SP OP NA 0.00 0.68 1.00 48 5 -3 -32 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA 0.3 NA 0.0 19.0 13.0 Hyflux Limited HYF SP IL 813 0.75 1.20 1.70 42 1 2 -11 Dec-13 10.5 NA NA NA 0.8 1.3 7.9 6.4 5.5 8.4 KS Energy Services KST SP IL NA 0.00 0.78 NA NA 5 -9 11 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Marco Polo Marine MPM SP NR 102 0.07 0.38 NA NA 6 -4 -5 Sep-13 8.3 6.0 -2.3 -2.6 NA 1.0 7.0 3.2 16.7 11.5 Midas Holdings MIDAS SP UP 441 1.75 0.46 0.36 -21 2 -11 -7 Dec-13 19.6 16.3 128.9 0.1 0.9 2.0 9.5 1.7 5.0 4.7 Neptune Orient Lines NOL SP IL 2,014 2.11 0.99 1.00 2 1 -12 -11 Dec-13 nm 16.5 NA NA 1.0 0.2 17.6 -0.5 0.3 -2.9 Otto Marine OTML SP IL 179 2.50 0.07 0.05 -23 4 -25 -13 Dec-13 nm NA NA NA 0.6 0.4 376.9 0.0 0.3 -4.3 Pan-United Corp PAN SP NR 466 0.19 1.04 NA NA 6 8 3 Dec-13 12.2 11.4 6.7 1.7 2.0 0.7 6.3 4.3 13.8 16.8 PEC PEC SP NR 111 0.03 0.55 NA NA 1 -2 -9 Jun-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2.8 NA Tat Hong Holdings TAT SP NR 429 0.40 0.86 NA NA 6 -5 -42 Mar-14 12.4 12.2 17.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 7.6 2.9 10.8 6.6 Tiger Airways Hldg. TGR SP IL 334 0.44 0.45 0.41 -9 8 -12 -31 Mar-14 nm nm NA NA 1.5 0.6 nm 0.0 -8.3 -93.4 World Precision BWPM SP NR 113 0.01 0.36 NA NA -1 -4 -12 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 7.2 NA Aggregate 16.7 13.3 26.8 0.5 16.7 0.5 12.1 1.5 Media Asiatravel.com Hold. AST SP NR 65 0.11 0.28 NA NA 6 33 41 Sep-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Kingsmen Creatives KMEN SP NR 144 0.03 0.93 NA NA -1 0 -3 Dec-13 9.3 8.5 9.3 0.9 NA 0.6 5.8 4.3 26.5 20.8 Aggregate 13.5 12.6 8.3 1.5 13.5 0.8 8.2 3.0 Property ARA Asset Mngmt. ARA SP OP 1,198 0.46 1.76 2.10 19 -2 -5 -9 Dec-13 17.1 9.8 42.4 0.2 4.7 9.6 15.4 2.9 28.2 29.5 Second Chance Prop. SCE SP NR 243 0.10 0.45 NA NA 0 -2 2 Aug-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 11.2 NA Yoma Strategic Hold. YOMA SP NR 747 2.74 0.81 NA NA 13 8 -5 Mar-14 73.6 57.9 0.0 NA 2.5 9.9 41.1 0.6 7.5 3.7 Aggregate 27.1 16.1 7.2 2.2 27.1 11.0 22.3 1.8 Resources GMG Global GGL SP IL NA 0.00 0.11 NA NA 7 -12 -23 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Indofood Agri Res. IFAR SP OP 1,151 1.38 1.01 1.23 22 -3 14 -3 Dec-13 11.6 8.9 -98.3 -0.1 0.9 0.1 4.9 1.3 9.3 7.9 Sri-Trang Agro Ind. STA SP IL NA 0.00 0.55 0.56 3 4 7 -13 Dec-13 0.4 0.3 502.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.1 84.3 10.3 9.9 Aggregate 11.8 9.6 11.1 0.9 11.8 0.8 6.6 2.0 Tech/Telecom M1 M1 SP OP 2,603 1.95 3.53 4.00 13 1 10 14 Dec-13 19.4 18.5 4.9 3.8 7.4 3.2 10.5 4.3 27.1 39.8 Silverlake Axis SILV SP NR 1,789 1.23 1.00 NA NA 9 14 28 Jun-13 23.7 20.8 15.3 1.4 11.5 10.8 20.4 3.2 62.5 39.3 Venture Corp VMS SP IL NA 0.00 7.68 7.15 -7 2 -5 0 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA 0.8 NA 0.0 8.3 8.5 Aggregate 13.4 12.3 9.2 1.3 13.4 1.5 8.4 6.3
Share prices as of 29 May 2014; Bloomberg estimates for NR stocks. Source: Bloomberg, Companies, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 15 Country focus Malaysia Historical view Figure 23: Historical PER band chart MSCI Malaysia Based on PER forward, the MSCI Malaysia small cap index is trading at 1.26x SD above its historical seven-year average Figure 24: Historical PBR band chart MSCI Malaysia Based on PBR forward, the MSCI Malaysia small cap index is trading at 0.11x SD above the historical seven-year average
Source: MSCI Source: MSCI
Top and bottom performers Figure 25: Top performers past week Figure 26: Bottom performers past week
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 27: Top performers YTD Figure 28: Bottom performers YTD
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 Feb-14 P E R
Small Cap Mean +/- 1 SD Large Cap Discount -50% -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 Feb-14 P B R
Small Cap Mean +/- 1 SD Large Cap Discount 10% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% E A S T
M K
P O S M
M K
M K H
M K
P E T D
M K
M A S
M K
K N M G
M K
I J M L D
M K
P R E S S
M K
M P R
M K
S T A R
M K
-3% -3% -3% -3% -4% -4% -4% -5% -5% -6% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% P H R M
M K
E V S D
M K
P A R
M K
T H P
M K
H I B I
M K
S O P
M K
U N I
M K
M D J
M K
P E T R
M K
U O A D
M K
73% 72% 55% 50% 43% 41% 41% 31% 31% 27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% M K H
30 May 2014 16 Watch list Figure 29: Malaysia watch list
Company name Ticker Rec Mkt cap (USD mn) 6- month AD liq. (USD mn) Share price (LCY) Price target (LCY) "+/-" (%) % Change 1W % Change YTD % Change 12M FYE PER FY1E (x) PER FY2E (x) EPS CAGR (FY0- FY2E) PEG (x) PBR FY1E (x) Price to sales FY1E (x) EV/ EBITDA FY1E (x) Div yield FY1E (%) ROCE FY1E (%) RoE FY1E (%) Consumer discretionary
Aeon Co. AEON MK NR 1,674 0.77 3.83 NA NA 1 9 -15 Dec-13 21.3 19.8 8.3 2.4 2.9 1.4 9.3 1.5 15.9 14.4 Asia Brands ABB MK NR 98 0.11 3.99 NA NA 2 0 17 Mar-14 9.7 8.3 10.9 0.8 1.4 0.6 NA 1.3 NA 15.9 Bonia Corp BON MK NR 318 0.44 5.08 NA NA 2 35 131 Jun-13 16.7 14.1 32.5 0.4 2.9 1.5 8.7 1.2 20.0 18.5 DKSH Hold. DKSH MK NR 400 1.31 8.16 NA NA 3 27 54 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 21.4 NA Padini Hldg. PAD MK NR 412 1.20 2.01 NA NA 0 11 -7 Jun-13 14.0 12.5 11.4 1.1 3.4 1.5 7.4 5.4 23.3 24.3 Parkson Hldg. PKS MK NR 859 1.50 2.61 NA NA -2 1 -26 Jun-13 17.3 15.4 -9.7 -1.6 1.0 0.8 4.3 3.4 12.2 5.5 Aggregate 20.5 18.3 -10.6 -1.7 20.5 1.3 7.7 2.2 Consumer staples Berjaya Food BFD MK NR 124 0.14 1.45 NA NA -5 -10 -15 Apr-13 17.7 14.2 11.7 1.2 2.1 2.7 15.6 2.7 30.6 13.5 Carlsberg Brewery CAB MK NR 1,158 0.49 12.10 NA NA 0 -1 -25 Dec-13 19.4 18.3 5.0 3.7 13.3 2.3 13.7 5.1 72.3 68.0 Cocoaland Holdings COLA MK NR 109 0.04 2.05 NA NA -5 -4 -18 Dec-13 17.1 15.8 0.6 27.1 1.6 1.4 9.5 3.3 10.9 9.8 Guiness Anchor GUIN MK NR 1,267 0.33 13.48 NA NA 0 -16 -35 Jun-13 21.1 19.9 -3.1 -6.4 10.8 2.5 14.2 4.5 43.2 51.5 Hup Seng Industries HSI MK NR 286 0.29 1.15 NA NA -1 20 95 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 21.0 NA NTPM Holdings NTPM MK NR 297 0.24 0.85 NA NA 1 13 63 Apr-13 15.2 14.7 14.9 1.0 2.8 1.8 9.7 3.5 15.7 17.3 Oldtown Bhd OTB MK NR 303 0.46 2.15 NA NA -1 3 -14 Dec-12 17.6 16.2 11.1 1.5 2.9 2.2 10.3 2.8 28.6 15.8 Power Root PWRT MK NR 205 0.20 2.17 NA NA 1 10 10 Feb-14 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 17.4 NA Aggregate 13.6 10.9 20.0 0.5 13.6 1.6 10.0 2.9 Diversified Berjaya Corp. BC MK NR 636 1.27 0.49 NA NA -1 -17 -21 Apr-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 7.3 NA Boustead Hldg. BOUS MK NR 1,706 0.55 5.30 NA NA -2 -6 -3 Dec-13 12.9 11.9 -2.0 -6.1 1.0 0.5 12.1 5.6 19.2 8.5 Aggregate 17.7 16.3 -9.7 -1.7 17.7 0.7 23.2 4.1 Healthcare Caring Pharmacy Caring MK NR 146 0.26 2.15 NA NA 1 9 NA May-13 21.5 17.2 NA NA 3.7 NA 11.4 1.6 NA 17.4 Hartalega Hldg. HART MK NR 1,384 1.26 5.95 NA NA 0 -18 7 Mar-14 18.0 18.1 2.3 7.9 4.9 3.9 11.8 2.5 32.9 28.8 IHH Healthcare IHH MK NR 10,590 5.15 4.17 NA NA -2 8 4 Dec-13 43.9 36.9 20.5 1.8 1.8 4.4 19.8 0.4 6.6 4.1 Karex KAREX MK NR 378 0.82 3.00 NA NA -4 8 NA Jun-13 23.6 16.9 -80.3 -0.2 6.0 0.0 18.1 0.9 24.1 27.9 Kossan Rubber KRI MK NR 794 1.36 3.99 NA NA 2 -8 85 Dec-13 14.5 12.1 22.3 0.5 3.1 1.6 9.2 2.5 17.1 22.8 KPJ Healthcare KPJ MK OP 1,051 1.13 3.31 3.62 9 -1 -15 -21 Dec-13 31.6 27.6 9.0 3.1 3.0 1.3 17.4 1.6 7.6 9.8 Pharmaniaga Bhd PHRM MK NR 373 0.23 4.63 NA NA -3 4 2 Dec-13 14.0 13.0 29.0 0.4 2.3 0.6 7.2 3.9 22.9 16.3 Supermax Corp SUCB MK NR 503 1.99 2.38 NA NA 1 -14 19 Dec-13 10.8 9.5 15.1 0.6 1.6 1.2 9.2 2.6 18.6 15.3 Top Glove Corp TOPG MK NR 916 1.82 4.74 NA NA 1 -16 -22 Aug-13 14.6 13.5 5.0 2.7 2.0 1.2 8.6 3.4 15.3 14.3 Aggregate 29.0 25.2 14.9 1.7 29.0 2.6 14.9 1.1 Industrials AirAsia AIRA MK OP 2,216 6.22 2.56 2.90 13 0 16 -19 Dec-13 8.8 7.2 19.5 0.4 1.2 1.2 8.3 2.3 8.2 15.1 Favelle Favco FFB MK NR 234 0.18 3.49 NA NA 0 11 36 Dec-13 10.3 9.4 8.2 1.2 NA 0.9 6.5 4.0 22.1 17.2 Muhibbah Eng. MUHI MK NR 367 1.19 2.79 NA NA 1 22 91 Dec-13 10.3 8.7 24.8 0.4 1.8 0.6 8.7 2.1 NA 18.6 Asia File Corp AF MK NR 254 0.13 6.96 NA NA -3 59 99 Mar-14 13.7 11.3 8.7 1.3 1.9 2.2 9.9 4.0 18.4 14.3 Aggregate 9.6 7.8 16.9 0.5 9.6 1.1 8.0 2.5 Media Asia Media AMGB MK NR 28 0.11 0.09 NA NA 0 0 -40 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 4.8 NA Astro Malaysia ASTRO MK NR 5,614 2.27 3.47 NA NA 2 16 11 Jan-14 39.4 31.8 12.6 2.5 29.9 3.8 12.6 2.2 22.9 81.6 Jobstreet Corp JOBS MK NR 486 0.76 2.42 NA NA -1 -2 32 Dec-13 22.0 18.6 15.6 1.2 NA NA NA NA 75.5 29.7 Media Prima MPR MK NR 870 0.95 2.53 NA NA 3 -3 -17 Dec-13 12.5 11.6 5.7 2.0 1.6 1.6 6.0 5.9 15.7 13.7 Star Publication STAR MK NR 586 0.52 2.55 NA NA 3 16 -1 Dec-13 13.6 12.3 3.7 3.4 1.6 1.8 6.8 6.0 19.7 11.1 Aggregate 30.1 25.5 3.8 6.6 30.1 3.3 9.9 2.8 Resources Genting Plantations GENP MK UP 2,665 1.05 11.36 9.37 -18 0 3 31 Dec-13 22.9 18.4 37.1 0.5 2.4 5.4 16.3 5.2 10.0 10.8 Petronas PETD MK NR 7,761 5.00 25.10 NA NA 7 -20 1 Dec-13 28.5 23.7 13.8 1.7 4.9 0.7 15.8 2.6 17.8 18.1 QL Resouces QLG MK NR 1,255 0.58 3.23 NA NA 2 14 44 Mar-14 23.8 20.4 7.0 2.9 3.5 1.6 16.1 1.1 14.4 14.9 Sarawak Oil Palms SOP MK NR 900 0.36 6.59 NA NA -4 1 17 Dec-13 16.7 12.8 52.2 0.2 NA 1.2 8.6 0.6 13.4 12.6 TDM Bhd TDM MK NR 445 0.87 0.97 NA NA -2 2 22 Dec-13 13.2 11.2 67.6 0.2 NA 3.5 9.5 2.9 13.1 7.1 TH Plantations THP MK NR 574 0.22 2.09 NA NA -3 11 11 Dec-13 22.0 18.7 25.0 0.7 1.5 3.2 13.8 2.2 14.6 5.8 TSH Resources TSH MK NR 966 0.77 3.46 NA NA 1 15 50 Dec-13 19.9 17.4 5.5 3.2 2.5 2.4 14.8 1.0 17.5 13.3 United Plantations UPL MK UP 1,784 0.26 27.42 21.28 -22 -2 7 2 Dec-13 20.8 17.1 15.1 1.1 2.5 5.5 12.3 3.7 14.7 12.4 Aggregate 24.1 19.8 19.3 1.0 24.1 1.2 14.7 2.8 Share prices as of 29 May 2014; Bloomberg estimates for NR stocks. Sources: Bloomberg, Companies, Standard Chartered Research estimates Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 17 Country focus Indonesia Historical view Figure 30: Historical PER band chart MSCI Indonesia Based on PER forward, the MSCI Indonesia small cap index is trading at 1.53x SD above its historical seven-year average Figure 31: Historical PBR band chart MSCI Indonesia Based on PBR forward, the MSCI Indonesia small cap index is trading at 0.42x SD below the historical seven-year average
Source: MSCI Source: MSCI
Top and bottom performers Figure 32: Top performers past week Figure 33: Bottom performers past week
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 34: Top performers YTD Figure 35: Bottom performers YTD
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 Feb-14 P E R
Small Cap Mean +/- 1 SD Large Cap Discount -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 Feb-14 P B R
Small Cap Mean +/- 1 SD Large Cap Discount 15% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6% 6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% S T T P
I J
I N D Y
I J
C S A P
I J
K B L V
I J
B O R N
I J
J P F A
I J
A I S A
I J
K A E F
I J
C N K O
I J
D O I D
I J
-2% -2% -3% -3% -3% -3% -4% -5% -6% -6% -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% T E L E
I J
S C M A
I J
P W O N
I J
B B K P
I J
E N R G
I J
M A P I
I J
A B B A
I J
B M T R
I J
B R P T
I J
E C I I
I J
210% 114% 111% 100% 91% 80% 79% 76% 72% 72% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% K B L V
I J
D O I D
I J
A D H I
I J
S T T P
I J
C T R S
I J
A I S A
I J
W S K T
I J
K A E F
I J
C S A P
I J
L P C K
I J
-12% -13% -15% -19% -20% -25% -25% -26% -33% -42% -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% M D R N
I J
T S P C
I J
K K G I
I J
T M P I
I J
A B B A
I J
E C I I
I J
B O R N
I J
B R P T
I J
C N K O
I J
G A M A
I J
Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 18 Watch list Figure 36: Indonesia watch list
Company name Ticker Rec Mkt cap (USD mn) 6- month AD liq. (USD mn) Share price (LCY) Price target (LCY) "+/-" (%) % Change 1W % Change YTD % Change 12M FYE PER FY1E (x) PER FY2E (x) EPS CAGR (FY0- FY2E) PEG (x) PBR FY1E (x) Price to sales FY1E (x) EV/ EBITDA FY1E (x) Div yield FY1E (%) ROCE FY1E (%) RoE FY1E (%) Consumer discretionary
Ace Hardware ACES IJ OP 1,306 1.26 885 1,049 19 4 50 -1 Dec-13 24.3 20.0 24.5 0.8 6.3 3.2 17.1 0.8 34.8 29.0 Catur Sentosa CSAP IJ NR 77 0.04 310 NA NA 13 72 35 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 16.3 NA Electronic City ECII IJ NR 239 0.06 2,085 NA NA -9 -25 NA Dec-13 8.1 5.2 50.8 0.1 1.4 0.0 4.9 2.0 20.4 NA Erajaya Swasembada ERAA IJ NR 334 1.93 1,340 NA NA 3 34 -61 Dec-13 10.2 9.1 10.7 0.9 1.2 0.0 7.8 3.2 23.7 13.4 Matahari Dept Store LPPF IJ OP 3,609 3.77 14,375 17,105 19 3 31 7 Dec-13 25.5 18.9 40.5 0.5 10.1 4.9 17.2 1.6 45.5 46.0 Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI IJ OP 743 1.11 5,200 6,206 19 -3 -5 -44 Dec-13 27.4 15.7 29.5 0.5 3.3 0.7 9.1 0.6 17.1 12.4 Ramayana Lestari RALS IJ IL 757 0.28 1,240.00 1,238.00 0 2 17 -16 Dec-13 17.8 15.0 22.7 0.7 2.5 1.4 10.4 2.8 15.1 14.5 Selamat Sempurna SMSM IJ NR 486 0.08 3,920 NA NA -10 14 62 Dec-13 18.0 15.4 9.0 1.7 6.2 0.0 10.5 3.0 32.2 35.7 Sepatu Bata BATA IJ NR 107 0.00 960 NA NA 4 -9 13 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 11.9 NA Trikomsel Oke TRIO IJ NR 508 0.00 1,240 NA NA 0 -4 -30 Dec-13 11.1 9.9 11.2 0.9 NA 0.0 NA NA 28.5 23.8 Trisula International TRIS IJ NR 35 0.23 390 NA NA 3 -3 -20 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 19.3 NA Aggregate 20.6 15.9 17.6 0.9 20.6 1.5 3.9 Consumer staples Fastfood Indon. FAST IJ NR 379 0.01 2,205 NA NA -2 16 -27 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 25.2 NA Hero Supermarket HERO IJ NR 972 0.05 2,700 NA NA 5 11 -32 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 12.1 NA Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF IJ OP 5,139 6.08 6,800 8,521 25 0 3 -7 Dec-13 13.1 9.8 56.0 0.2 2.3 0.9 6.0 3.8 17.4 18.3 Matahari Putra Prima MPPA IJ NR 1,326 8.12 2,865 NA NA 1 48 21 Dec-13 38.8 28.8 9.7 3.0 6.3 0.0 17.9 0.8 18.9 12.7 Mayora Indah MYOR IJ IL 2,219 0.11 28,825 27,895 -3 1 11 -7 Dec-13 22.9 18.8 30.8 0.6 5.1 1.8 13.4 1.0 19.8 24.1 Midi Utama MIDI IJ NR 127 0.00 510 NA NA 1 -4 -27 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 26.9 NA Modern Intl. MDRN IJ NR 242 0.06 675 NA NA 5 -12 -32 Dec-13 45.9 30.4 23.7 1.3 2.6 0.0 13.1 0.4 10.2 6.1 Nippon Indosari ROTI IJ IL 523 0.31 1,200 1,225 2 1 18 -32 Dec-13 4.6 3.7 186.2 0.0 1.2 2.8 4.4 5.5 16.7 29.2 Siantar Top STTP IJ NR 350 0.00 3,100 NA NA 3 100 65 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 18.7 NA Sumber Alfaria AMRT IJ NR 1,624 0.09 500 NA NA 2 11 -27 Dec-13 30.6 24.2 20.4 1.2 7.0 0.0 10.1 1.4 32.7 24.9 Supra Boga Lestari RANC IJ NR 83 0.05 620 NA NA 0 -6 -40 Dec-13 19.8 16.5 29.2 0.6 2.3 0.0 10.6 1.0 11.3 12.0 Tiga Pilar Food AISA IJ NR 650 0.88 2,580 NA NA 11 80 76 Dec-13 18.4 14.3 30.4 0.5 3.2 0.0 9.6 0.6 18.0 16.9 Ultrajaya ULTJ IJ NR 1,040 0.11 4,185 NA NA 0 -7 -8 Dec-13 24.5 18.9 40.4 0.5 NA 0.0 14.9 NA 19.1 NA Wismilak Inti Makmur WIIM IJ NR 113 0.11 625 NA NA 0 -7 -37 Dec-13 9.4 8.6 7.3 1.2 1.5 0.0 6.1 3.0 19.0 17.3 Aggregate 21.6 16.5 21.3 0.8 21.6 1.1 4.8 1.9 Healthcare Kalbe Farma Tbk PT KLBF IJ NR 6,515 6.89 1,615 NA NA -2 29 6 Dec-13 32.8 27.0 20.8 1.3 8.0 0.0 22.3 1.3 27.1 25.1 Kimia Farma Persero KAEF IJ NR 497 0.36 1,040 NA NA 14 76 9 Dec-13 24.4 19.4 17.9 1.1 3.2 0.0 16.1 0.7 14.1 13.1 Siloam Int. Hospitals SILO IJ OP 1,190 8.80 13,200 13,982 6 1 39 NA Dec-13 127.3 85.4 80.2 1.1 8.7 4.2 30.0 0.1 8.5 7.1 Sido Muncul SIDO IJ NR 1,065 2.12 825 NA NA 4 18 NA Dec-13 26.9 23.2 14.7 1.6 5.0 0.0 16.8 1.6 21.2 19.5 Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC IJ OP 1,094 0.22 2,825 3,878 37 3 -13 -38 Nov-13 18.2 15.2 14.7 1.0 3.0 1.6 11.2 3.0 19.5 17.3 Aggregate 31.6 25.9 13.4 1.9 31.6 3.2 13.8 1.4 Industrials Adhi Karya ADHI IJ NR 495 6.53 3,190 NA NA 1 111 -15 Dec-13 13.0 10.1 18.3 0.6 3.1 0.0 5.5 1.9 20.4 24.5 AKR Corporindo AKRA IJ OP 1,490 3.11 4,460 6,050 36 2 2 -17 Dec-13 17.4 13.0 29.3 0.4 2.8 0.6 7.0 2.3 20.6 34.5 Arwana Citramulia ARNA IJ OP 626 0.32 990 983 -1 5 21 27 Dec-13 26.0 20.4 23.2 0.9 8.1 4.2 22.3 1.9 41.9 34.9 Astra Otoparts AUTO IJ NR 1,576 0.39 3,800 NA NA 3 4 -11 Dec-13 13.5 11.5 21.4 0.5 1.8 0.0 14.7 3.1 27.1 14.2 Berlina Tbk BRNA IJ NR 35 0.01 590 NA NA 3 30 2 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 19.2 NA Cardig Aero Services CASS IJ NR 167 0.04 930 NA NA -1 13 12 Dec-13 15.2 11.1 26.2 0.4 NA 0.0 5.1 2.5 80.0 34.2 Citra Marga Nusa CMNP IJ NR 678 0.17 3,580 NA NA 2 7 90 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 31.0 NA Express Transindo Utama TAXI IJ NR 244 1.71 1,320 NA NA 2 -10 -15 Dec-13 19.3 16.0 15.5 1.0 3.1 0.0 7.0 1.0 13.8 17.3 Hexindo Adiperkasa HEXA IJ NR 278 0.11 3,850 NA NA 1 19 -25 Mar-13 10.4 8.3 -29.3 -0.3 1.3 NA 9.0 8.8 33.2 14.8 Indomobil Sukses IMAS IJ NR 1,166 0.09 4,900 NA NA 4 0 -7 Dec-13 14.8 11.7 47.4 0.2 2.1 0.0 17.6 1.1 NA 15.0 Jasa Marga Persero JSMR IJ NR 3,511 3.88 6,000 NA NA 0 27 -11 Dec-13 24.7 21.7 18.6 1.2 4.0 0.0 12.5 1.5 NA 16.3 Mitra Pinasthika Mustika MPMX IJ NR 499 0.18 1,300 NA NA 6 2 -11 Dec-13 8.9 7.5 5.3 1.4 1.2 0.0 6.5 3.2 27.5 13.4 Selemat Sempurna SMSM IJ NR 486 0.08 3,920 NA NA -10 14 62 Dec-13 18.0 15.4 9.0 1.7 6.2 0.0 10.5 3.0 32.2 35.7 Total Bangun Persada TOTL IJ NR 247 0.92 840 NA NA 1 68 -42 Dec-13 14.7 12.3 9.3 1.3 3.4 0.0 9.5 3.9 29.5 26.2 Aggregate 18.4 15.0 9.3 1.6 18.4 1.1 9.5 2.1 Media Dyandra Media Int. DYAN IJ NR 79 0.03 215 NA NA 0 -9 -39 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 9.1 14.9 Elang Mahkota EMTK IJ NR 2,767 0.01 5,700 NA NA 0 3 -7 Dec-13 21.0 NA NA NA 4.6 0.0 10.4 1.0 21.4 23.9 First Media KBLV IJ NR 270 0.01 1,800 NA NA 11 210 140 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2.0 NA Global Mediacom BMTR IJ IL 2,524 2.05 2,095 2,599 24 -4 10 -16 Dec-13 15.1 11.8 37.1 0.3 2.2 2.3 5.5 1.7 19.4 16.1 Intermedia Capital MDIA IJ NR 641 0.22 1,900 NA NA 2 NA NA Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 6.0 NA Mahaka Media ABBA IJ NR 19 0.01 80 NA NA -4 -20 -10 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 23.9 NA Media Nusantara MNCN IJ OP 3,279 2.59 2,720 3,185 17 4 4 -16 Dec-13 16.5 13.7 20.7 0.7 3.8 4.5 11.6 3.2 33.1 27.0 MNC Sky Vision MSKY IJ OP 1,274 0.16 2,095 3,039 45 0 5 -26 Dec-13 26.5 18.7 104.8 0.2 5.9 3.7 9.3 1.3 16.8 24.0 Surya Citra Media SCMA IJ OP 3,989 1.89 3,170 3,961 25 1 21 6 Dec-13 27.3 22.2 26.7 0.8 12.2 10.3 18.8 2.6 58.7 52.0 Visi Media Asia VIVA IJ NR 384 0.43 271 NA NA -1 -1 -44 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 8.3 NA Aggregate 20.9 21.3 10.9 1.9 20.9 4.6 2.9 2.0 Property Kawasan Industry KIJA IJ NR 433 1.14 250 NA NA 1 30 -38 Dec-13 7.5 7.3 162.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 5.1 4.8 7.9 12.7 Lippo Karawaci LPKR IJ NR 2,175 8.35 1,095 NA NA 0 20 -35 Dec-13 15.2 15.1 15.9 0.9 1.9 0.0 9.7 1.4 6.6 13.3 Pakuwon Jati PWON IJ NR 1,538 1.59 371 NA NA -2 37 -11 Dec-13 12.1 9.5 28.7 0.3 3.4 0.0 8.9 1.6 68.2 32.0 Surya Semestra SSIA IJ NR 292 1.78 720 NA NA 3 29 -54 Dec-13 4.8 4.4 5.6 0.8 1.2 0.0 2.8 4.0 33.7 27.3 Aggregate 11.6 10.1 19.9 0.5 11.6 2.4 7.7 2.3 Resources Astra Agro Lestari AALI IJ IL 3,768 3.41 27,800 27,242 -2 1 11 46 Dec-13 15.1 13.6 23.0 0.6 3.7 2.8 9.9 3.4 33.2 27.6 Bisi Internaitonal BISI IJ NR 152 0.10 590 NA NA 1 5 -24 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 8.9 NA BW Plantation BWPT IJ OP 468 2.66 1,345 1,514 13 4 1 25 Dec-13 15.8 9.3 84.2 0.1 2.4 3.5 12.1 1.3 9.9 15.6 Charoen Pokphand Indo. CPIN IJ IL 5,638 2.96 3,995 3,317 -17 4 18 -20 Dec-13 15.6 NA NA NA 4.8 2.3 11.2 1.9 39.3 34.3 Indofood CBP Sukses ICBP IJ OP 5,157 3.24 10,275 12,300 20 3 1 -19 Dec-13 17.9 14.8 17.6 0.8 4.0 2.0 11.7 2.1 25.7 23.8 Japfa Comfeed JPFA IJ UP 1,262 0.63 1,375 1,632 19 10 13 -29 Dec-13 8.7 7.1 17.1 0.4 2.1 0.6 6.0 2.3 23.2 26.6 London Sumatra Indo. LSIP IJ UP 1,392 6.65 2,370 2,071 -13 7 23 24 Dec-13 15.9 13.5 24.6 0.6 2.2 3.3 9.4 2.5 16.8 14.6 Aggregate 15.5 18.6 -5.3 -3.5 15.5 2.0 0.5 2.3 Tech/Telecom Sarana Menara TOWR IJ NR 3,425 0.07 3,900 NA NA 3 42 53 Dec-13 33.0 28.2 189.5 0.1 8.6 0.0 15.2 0.7 5.2 26.7 Solusi Tunas SUPR IJ NR 571 0.01 8,350 NA NA -1 2 20 Dec-13 20.6 16.2 42.8 0.4 2.4 0.0 9.3 NA 55.7 12.8 Tower Bersama TBIG IJ NR 3,014 1.27 7,300 NA NA 6 26 27 Dec-13 23.8 19.1 21.3 0.9 5.9 0.0 14.4 1.1 NA 27.9 27.0 22.3 42.0 0.5 27.0 9.8 9.9 0.8
Share prices as of 29 May 2014; Bloomberg estimates for NR stocks. Source: Bloomberg, Companies, Standard Chartered Research estimates Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 19 Country focus Thailand Historical view Figure 37: Historical PER band chart MSCI Thailand Based on PER forward, the MSCI Thailand small cap index is trading at 1.83x SD above its historical seven-year average Figure 38: Historical PBR band chart MSCI Thailand Based on PBR forward, the MSCI Thailand small cap index is trading at 1.32x SD above its historical seven-year average
Source: MSCI Source: MSCI
Top and bottom performers Figure 39: Top performers past week Figure 40: Bottom performers past week
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 41: Top performers YTD Figure 42: Bottom performers YTD
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 Feb-14 P E R
Small Cap Mean +/- 1 SD Large Cap Discount -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 Feb-14 P B R
Small Cap Mean +/- 1 SD Large Cap Discount 22% 20% 18% 17% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% I T D
T B
C K
T B
E A
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T K
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U M I
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B A F S
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S T E C
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T H A I
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G L O B A L
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R O B I N S
T B
-3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -4% -4% -4% -6% -6% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% S A M A R T
-6% -7% -7% -10% -11% -12% -14% -17% -20% -25% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% T H C O M
T B
W O R K
T B
C C E T
T B
M C O T
T B
J M A R T
T B
E A S T W
T B
T H R E
T B
N P A R K
T B
G R A M M Y
T B
E A R T H
T B
Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 20 Watch list Figure 43: Thailand watch list Company name Ticker Rec Mkt cap (USD mn) 6-month AD liq. (USD mn) Share price (LCY) Price target (LCY) "+/-" (%) % Change 1W % Change YTD % Change 12M FYE PER FY1E (x) PER FY2E (x) EPS CAGR (FY0- FY2E) PEG (x) PBR FY1E (x) Price to sales FY1E (x) EV/ EBITDA FY1E (x) Div yield FY1E (%) ROCE FY1E (%) RoE FY1E (%) Consumer discretionary
Beauty Community BEAUTY TB NR 195 0.36 21.30 NA NA 4 5 -17 Dec-13 23.4 19.3 25.5 0.8 6.0 4.9 14.8 3.7 22.8 26.0 Home Pro. Centre HMPRO TB IL 2,667 5.13 9.15 9.28 1 5 12 -26 Dec-13 25.9 21.7 14.7 1.5 5.8 1.9 14.6 1.2 19.0 24.2 Jubilee Enterprise JUBILE TB NR 133 0.05 25.00 NA NA 1 6 -14 Dec-13 17.8 14.9 19.7 0.8 6.3 2.6 12.6 3.6 36.9 36.2 MC Group PCL MC TB NR 447 1.00 18.30 NA NA 4 58 NA Dec-13 17.1 14.4 10.2 1.4 3.7 3.5 12.1 4.1 NA 22.6 Modernform Group MODERN TB NR 215 0.03 9.40 NA NA -1 9 -14 Dec-13 14.0 14.5 6.6 2.2 2.2 1.9 14.3 8.7 26.1 22.6 Officemate OFM TB NR 505 0.34 51.75 NA NA 0 75 -29 Dec-13 32.3 27.9 20.4 1.4 3.4 1.7 23.0 1.3 38.7 10.4 Robinson Dept. St. ROBINS TB IL 1,935 1.36 57.50 51.36 -11 10 20 -25 Dec-13 31.8 25.6 12.1 2.1 5.1 2.3 16.0 1.6 19.0 16.8 Siam Global House GLOBAL TB NR 1,283 1.92 13.80 NA NA 11 2 -38 Dec-13 38.3 28.7 27.8 1.0 3.5 2.3 22.8 0.8 9.5 9.5 Singer Thailand SINGER TB NR 169 0.40 20.50 NA NA 8 11 -26 Dec-13 15.4 13.1 14.9 0.9 3.4 1.6 11.8 2.5 22.2 25.4 Aggregate 26.6 22.1 12.9 1.7 25.6 5.0 -0.2 1.6 Consumer staples Berli Jucker BJC TB NR 2,219 1.72 45.75 NA NA 2 -5 -25 Dec-13 30.4 26.8 5.6 4.8 4.1 1.6 15.2 1.8 13.6 14.4 Big C Super. BIGC TB NR 4,756 1.76 189.00 NA NA 3 3 -14 Dec-13 21.2 18.8 9.0 2.1 3.7 1.2 12.8 1.4 53.6 18.8 CP ALL CPALL TB UP 12,358 22.02 45.75 25.74 -44 5 9 5 Dec-13 27.6 21.5 34.6 0.6 11.7 1.1 17.2 2.2 13.4 46.2 DSG Int. DSGT TB NR 323 0.11 8.40 NA NA -4 15 7 Dec-13 29.0 26.3 -8.9 -2.9 5.7 1.3 15.3 1.4 NA 20.2 Ichitan Group ICHI TB NR 956 61.28 24.10 NA NA -4 NA NA Dec-13 27.7 22.7 NA NA 4.7 NA 22.6 1.7 23.9 25.1 Malee Sampran MALEE TB NR 172 0.38 40.25 NA NA 4 34 -28 Dec-13 12.5 9.0 49.1 0.2 NA 0.9 8.2 5.1 25.3 39.2 Minor Intl. MINT TB NR 3,039 6.14 24.90 NA NA -3 20 -9 Dec-13 22.4 19.0 12.1 1.6 3.6 2.6 14.9 1.6 23.3 16.9 MK Restaurants M TB OP 1,579 2.41 57.75 65.90 14 4 13 NA Dec-13 22.7 20.7 11.3 1.8 3.9 3.5 13.7 3.1 18.9 17.7 Oishi Group OISHI TB NR 529 0.09 92.50 NA NA -6 7 -36 Dec-13 28.9 21.5 33.1 0.6 4.8 1.3 11.9 1.9 NA 16.3 Premier Marketing PM TB NR 174 0.25 9.55 NA NA 2 31 -20 Dec-13 12.4 11.3 10.1 1.1 3.4 1.3 9.0 5.6 33.1 29.2 Siam Makro MAKRO TB NR 5,343 0.24 36.50 NA NA 8 26 -5 Dec-13 33.6 27.8 20.8 1.3 13.8 1.2 21.7 2.6 40.7 44.1 S.Khonkaen Food SORKON NR 58 0.04 78.00 NA NA 2 9 3 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 31.0 NA Tipco Foods TIPCO TB NR 113 0.92 7.70 NA NA 2 8 -36 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 11.4 NA Aggregate 26.0 21.6 16.6 1.3 26.0 1.3 15.5 2.1 Healthcare Bangkok Chain Hosp. BCH TB NR 582 0.91 7.65 NA NA -1 26 -19 Dec-13 27.5 23.5 18.9 1.2 4.4 3.6 15.1 2.1 12.3 16.4 Bangkok Dusit Med. BGH TB NR 7,748 10.79 16.40 NA NA 6 40 -3 Dec-13 36.1 30.8 14.6 2.1 5.5 4.5 22.4 1.3 20.6 16.5 Bumrungrad Hosp BH TB NR 2,500 2.21 112.50 NA NA 0 28 33 Dec-13 31.6 27.1 9.6 2.8 7.8 6.2 18.6 1.7 19.0 27.0 Mega Lifesciences MEGA TB NR 575 2.78 21.80 NA NA 1 9 NA Dec-13 26.4 22.0 8.7 2.5 4.3 2.0 18.0 1.6 23.7 15.9 Vibhavadi Medical Center VIBHA TB NR 564 0.91 14.70 NA NA -3 59 -3 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 28.7 NA Aggregate 35.7 30.2 8.0 3.8 35.7 4.8 18.3 1.3 Industrials Airports of Thailand AOT TB OP 8,036 32.60 183.50 211.00 15 -3 16 -1 Sep-13 22.8 16.0 19.7 0.8 2.7 6.9 13.8 1.5 10.5 12.1 BTS Group Hold. BTS TB NR 3,016 13.20 8.30 NA NA 3 -5 -3 Mar-14 40.7 37.2 -54.6 -0.7 1.6 12.1 22.3 6.3 29.5 11.1 Diamond Building Products DRT TB NR 198 0.20 6.20 NA NA 4 -22 -37 Dec-13 13.4 12.4 7.9 1.6 2.7 1.4 8.2 6.1 16.7 20.6 Dynasty Ceramic DCC TB NR 691 0.32 55.50 NA NA 4 14 -8 Dec-13 16.8 15.3 6.8 2.3 8.2 2.9 11.8 6.1 48.7 48.9 IRPC PCL IRPC TB IL 2,208 2.70 3.52 3.50 -1 -2 8 -8 Dec-13 22.3 18.8 91.5 0.2 0.9 0.3 11.4 0.6 4.9 4.2 Italian-Thai Dev. ITD TB NR 664 5.06 4.48 NA NA 22 15 -46 Dec-13 29.3 25.2 -6.7 -3.8 1.7 0.4 9.6 1.6 13.2 6.6 Thai Airways Intl. THAI TB UP NA 0.00 24.40 NA NA 12 4 -54 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Aggregate 24.3 18.8 -6.3 -3.0 24.3 1.2 13.1 2.7 Media BEC World BEC TB IL 3,057 3.55 49.50 51.68 4 -3 -2 -24 Dec-13 17.5 15.8 6.7 2.3 10.1 5.1 9.4 5.2 57.5 60.4 GMM Grammy GRAMMY TB NR 293 0.03 15.10 NA NA -3 -20 -30 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA 6.5 0.8 NA 0.0 NA -60.1 Major Cineplex MAJOR TB OP 465 1.10 17.10 22.43 31 -3 -2 -29 Dec-13 15.8 13.7 18.3 0.7 2.5 1.8 8.2 5.4 12.9 15.7 MCOT Plc. MCOT TB NR 545 0.45 26.00 NA NA -2 -10 -47 Dec-13 12.4 11.6 0.5 24.6 2.2 3.0 5.8 7.4 21.2 18.9 Nation Multimedia NMG TB NR 132 1.42 1.31 NA NA 0 -2 -44 Dec-13 11.9 10.1 14.0 0.7 1.1 1.1 4.5 NA 12.8 9.9 RS PCL RS TB NR 260 1.22 8.50 NA NA 4 20 -21 Dec-13 17.0 18.1 3.8 4.8 4.8 1.8 9.5 4.2 57.1 29.1 VGI Global VGI TB NR 1,246 5.84 11.90 NA NA 5 21 -15 Mar-14 32.6 29.6 10.4 2.9 18.5 12.6 23.9 2.5 65.1 60.4 Workpoint Ent. WORK TB NR 200 0.55 24.60 NA NA -1 -7 -53 Dec-13 25.4 22.5 4.6 4.9 3.7 2.5 12.2 2.4 21.9 17.7 Aggregate 19.2 17.6 4.8 3.7 19.2 3.5 10.6 4.4 Resources Sri Trang Agro STA TB IL 548 1.42 14.00 14.71 5 5 8 -8 Dec-13 9.1 7.1 17.7 0.4 0.9 0.2 10.9 3.3 10.5 9.8 Thai Union Frozen TUF TB OP 2,386 4.95 68.25 85.54 25 1 -5 12 Dec-13 9.4 NA NA NA 1.7 0.6 7.9 4.4 16.9 19.4 Thai Vegetable Oil TVO TB OP 538 0.73 22.40 29.53 32 3 21 7 Dec-13 7.3 7.7 0.7 11.1 2.1 0.5 5.7 8.3 36.5 31.2 Aggregate 8.6 23.3 -34.8 -0.7 8.6 0.4 8.0 4.9 Tech/Telecom Jasmine Int. JAS TB NR 1,731 38.19 7.95 NA NA -1 19 -15 Dec-13 15.3 12.5 23.2 0.5 4.3 4.3 7.9 3.4 25.4 30.7 Thaicom PCL THCOM TB NR 1,279 3.67 38.25 NA NA -4 -6 0 Dec-13 24.8 19.4 38.3 0.5 2.5 4.5 9.4 1.9 19.0 10.5 Aggregate 17.9 14.5 24.3 0.6 17.9 4.4 8.8 2.7 Insurance Thai Reinsurance THRE TB NR 349 0.57 3.26 NA NA 5 -14 -52 Dec-13 12.4 10.9 NA NA 3.4 2.0 10.6 0.0 NA 27.7 Share prices as of 29 May 2014; Bloomberg estimates for NR stocks. Sources: Bloomberg, Companies, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 21 Country focus The Philippines Historical view Figure 44: Historical PER band MSCI Philippines Based on forward PER, the MSCI Philippines small-cap index is trading at 0.98xSD above its historical seven-year average Figure 45: Historical PBR band MSCI Philippines Based on forward PBR, the MSCI Philippines smallcap index is trading at 1.19xSD above the historical seven-year average
Source: MSCI Source: MSCI
Top and bottom performers Figure 46: Top performers past week Figure 47: Bottom performers past week
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 48: Top performers YTD Figure 49: Bottom performers YTD
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 4 9 14 19 24 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 Feb-14 P E R
Small Cap Mean +/- 1 SD Large Cap Discount -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 Feb-14 P B R
Small Cap Mean +/- 1 SD Large Cap Discount 7% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -1% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% L P Z
P M
P F
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P I P
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G E R I
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V L L
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J F C
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M W I D E
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P M
-2% -2% -2% -3% -4% -4% -5% -5% -6% -9% -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% F G E N
P M
S E V N
P M
F L I
P M
R F M
P M
A B S
P M
P C K H
P M
B E L
P M
P X P
P M
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Equity Research l Double in 3, Triple in 5
30 May 2014 22 Watch list Figure 50: The Philippines watch list
Company name Ticker Rec Mkt cap (USD mn) 6- month AD liq. (USD mn) Share price (LCY) Price target (LCY) "+/-" (%) % Change 1W % Change YTD % Change 12M FYE PER FY1E (x) PER FY2E (x) EPS CAGR (FY0- FY2E) PEG (x) PBR FY1E (x) Price to sales FY1E (x) EV/ EBITDA FY1E (x) Div yield FY1E (%) ROCE FY1E (%) RoE FY1E (%) Consumer staples
Century Pacific Food CNPF PM NR 846 3.55 16.64 NA NA 2 NA NA Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA D&L Industries DNL PM NR 747 1.48 9.18 NA NA -1 46 11 Dec-13 20.3 17.5 16.0 1.1 3.9 2.7 15.3 1.6 21.3 18.0 Emperador EMP PM NR 3,952 2.24 11.56 NA NA 2 8 -39 Dec-13 25.1 21.5 1.7 12.5 5.7 3.8 15.2 2.2 30.5 22.9 JG Summit Holdings JGS PM NR 7,452 3.92 46.60 NA NA -9 21 -1 Dec-13 19.6 17.8 33.1 0.5 1.7 1.7 12.0 0.4 13.0 8.5 Jollibee Foods JFC PM NR 4,455 2.39 185.30 NA NA 0 7 24 Dec-13 37.0 32.0 14.1 2.3 8.0 2.2 18.7 1.3 37.1 21.9 Pancake House Inc. PCKH PM NR 189 0.02 32.00 NA NA -4 113 176 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 46.2 NA Pepsi-Cola Phil. PIP PM NR 408 0.35 4.85 NA NA 3 8 -21 Dec-13 15.8 14.3 19.0 0.7 2.2 0.7 6.4 2.5 19.5 14.8 Philippine Seven SEVN PM NR 956 0.03 91.55 NA NA -2 -7 16 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 35.4 NA Puregold Price Club PGOLD PM NR 2,610 3.25 41.40 NA NA -1 9 6 Dec-13 24.6 20.8 17.9 1.2 3.6 1.3 14.8 0.9 23.9 14.6 RFM Corp RFM PM NR 479 0.11 6.00 NA NA -3 8 7 Dec-13 21.8 19.7 10.7 1.8 2.8 1.7 12.8 1.2 11.1 13.3 Robinsons Retail RRHI PM NR 1,961 2.20 63.00 NA NA -5 14 NA Dec-13 24.1 20.0 -8.8 -2.3 2.2 0.5 9.8 0.7 16.2 9.5 Universal Robina URC PM OP 7,479 7.70 150.00 195.60 30 -2 34 19 Sep-13 27.7 24.3 21.2 1.1 6.0 3.5 18.1 2.4 24.9 22.5 Aggregate 26.3 23.1 18.6 1.2 26.3 2.2 14.3 1.3 Financials COL Financial COL PM NR 164 0.02 15.40 NA NA 3 -6 -21 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Industrials Cebu Air, Inc. CEB PM OP 747 0.23 54.15 65.00 20 -1 16 -33 Dec-13 12.9 8.6 29.2 0.3 1.5 0.7 7.7 1.4 6.6 7.1 EEI Corp EEI PM NR 242 0.28 10.26 NA NA -6 7 -33 Dec-13 10.7 9.8 8.9 1.1 1.6 0.8 9.6 1.6 22.5 16.2 Megawide Cons. MWIDE PM NR 483 0.29 12.84 NA NA 0 -8 -21 Dec-13 15.1 12.5 -4.5 -2.8 2.1 1.5 7.6 0.6 21.1 17.9 Concepcion Industrial Corp CIC PM NR 217 0.11 36.50 NA NA -6 49 NA Dec-13 16.2 13.7 -3.9 -3.5 NA 0.7 6.3 1.5 34.9 17.2 Phoenix Petroleum Philippines PNX PM NR 202 0.09 6.20 NA NA 2 38 -14 Dec-13 8.4 6.4 41.3 0.2 1.3 0.1 7.9 2.0 NA 16.1 Aggregate 12.6 9.6 21.0 0.5 12.6 0.6 7.3 1.3 Diversified Alliance Global AGI PM NR 7,021 6.53 30.00 NA NA -1 16 20 Dec-13 17.0 14.8 9.3 1.6 2.6 2.3 10.9 1.6 11.9 15.2 Aggregate 16.9 14.7 8.5 1.7 16.9 2.3 10.1 1.6 Media ABS-CBN Corp ABS PM NR 703 0.07 36.00 NA NA -4 11 -20 Dec-13 19.1 15.7 -7.8 -2.0 1.3 0.8 5.6 1.2 10.4 6.2 GMA Network GMA7 PM NR 585 0.12 7.64 NA NA -1 -7 -19 Dec-13 26.8 18.6 9.3 2.0 NA 3.0 9.5 3.4 19.2 15.7 Aggregate 18.7 14.3 0.3 50.3 18.7 1.2 6.6 2.2
Share prices as of 29 May 2014; Bloomberg estimates for NR stocks. Sources: Bloomberg, Companies, Standard Chartered Research estimates
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Figure 51: Complete universe screens
6-month average volume traded is denoted by 6-month average volume; (2) deviation in price target from the current share price is denoted by +/-; (3) EPS for FY1 is calendarised to arrive at the PERs for all rated stocks; and (4) dividend yield is denoted by D/Y; share prices as of 29 May 2014; Bloomberg estimates for NR stocks. Sources: Bloomberg, Companies, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Company name Ticker Rec Mkt cap (USDm) 6-month AD Liq. (USDm) Share price (LCY) Price target (LCY) "+/-" (%) % change 1W % change YTD % change 12M FYE PER FY1E PER FY2E EPS CAGR FY0-FY2E PEG PBR FY1E PS FY1E EV/ EBITDA FY1E Div yield FY1E ROCE FY1E ROE FY1E Consumer discretionary Ace Hardware ACES IJ OP 1,306 1.27 885 1,049 19 4 50 -1 Dec-13 24.3 20.0 24.5 0.8 6.3 3.2 17.1 0.8 34.8 29.0 Aeon Co. AEON MK NR 1,674 0.77 3.83 NA NA 1 9 -15 Dec-13 21.3 19.8 8.3 2.4 2.9 1.4 9.3 1.5 15.9 14.4 Asia Brands ABB MK NR 98 0.11 3.99 NA NA 2 0 17 Mar-14 9.7 8.3 10.9 0.8 1.4 0.6 NA 1.3 NA 15.9 Beauty Community BEAUTY TB NR 195 0.36 21.30 NA NA 4 5 -17 Dec-13 23.4 19.3 25.5 0.8 6.0 4.9 14.8 3.7 22.8 26.0 Bonia Corp BON MK NR 318 0.44 5.08 NA NA 2 35 131 Jun-13 16.7 14.1 32.5 0.4 2.9 1.5 8.7 1.2 20.0 18.5 Catur Sentosa Adiprana CSAP IJ NR 77 0.04 310 NA NA 13 72 35 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 16.3 NA Courts Asia Ltd COURTS SP NR 237 0.29 0.54 NA NA 3 -13 -49 Mar-14 9.6 8.2 12.9 0.6 1.0 0.3 8.0 3.0 29.6 10.2 DKSH Holdings Malaysia DKSH MK NR 400 1.31 8.16 NA NA 3 27 54 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 21.4 NA Electronic City ECII IJ NR 239 0.06 2,085 NA NA -9 -25 NA Dec-13 8.1 5.2 50.8 0.1 1.4 0.0 4.9 2.0 20.4 NA Erajaya Swasembada ERAA IJ NR 334 1.93 1,340 NA NA 3 34 -61 Dec-13 10.2 9.1 10.7 0.9 1.2 0.0 7.8 3.2 23.7 13.4 Eu Yan Sang Intl. EYSAN SP OP 296 0.17 0.84 1.03 23 1 -3 14 Jun-13 17.5 15.8 15.8 1.0 2.3 1.0 9.9 3.1 12.3 13.4 Home Product Cen. HMPRO TB IL 2,682 5.20 9.15 9.28 1 5 12 -26 Dec-13 26.1 21.9 14.4 1.5 5.8 1.9 14.7 1.2 19.0 24.2 Hour Glass Ltd HG SP NR 339 0.13 1.81 NA NA 6 8 -2 Mar-14 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 17.7 NA Jubilee Enterprise JUBILE TB NR 133 0.05 25.00 NA NA 1 6 -14 Dec-13 17.8 14.9 19.7 0.8 6.3 2.6 12.6 3.6 36.9 36.2 Matahari Dept Store LPPF IJ OP 3,609 3.80 14,375 17,105 19 3 31 7 Dec-13 25.5 18.9 40.5 0.5 10.1 4.9 17.2 1.6 45.5 46.0 Mandom Indonesia TCID IJ NR 266 0.02 15,400 NA NA 3 29 34 Dec-13 17.2 14.3 16.2 0.9 NA NA NA NA 14.0 14.0 MC Group PCL MC TB NR 446 1.00 18.30 NA NA 4 58 NA Dec-13 17.1 14.4 10.2 1.4 3.7 3.5 12.1 4.1 NA 22.6 Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI IJ OP 743 1.12 5,200 6,206 19 -3 -5 -44 Dec-13 27.4 15.7 29.5 0.5 3.3 0.7 9.1 0.6 17.1 12.4 Modernform Group MODERN TB NR 215 0.03 9.40 NA NA -1 9 -14 Dec-13 14.0 14.5 6.6 2.2 2.2 1.9 14.3 8.7 26.1 22.6 Officemate OFM TB NR 505 0.34 51.75 NA NA 0 75 -29 Dec-13 32.3 27.9 20.4 1.4 3.4 1.7 23.0 1.3 38.7 10.4 OSIM Intl. OSIM SP OP 1,656 2.84 2.80 3.57 28 1 22 37 Dec-13 18.3 15.8 21.8 0.7 4.8 2.9 11.4 2.5 30.8 32.3 Padini Hldg. PAD MK NR 412 1.20 2.01 NA NA 0 11 -7 Jun-13 14.0 12.5 11.4 1.1 3.4 1.5 7.4 5.4 23.3 24.3 Parkson Hldg. PKS MK NR 859 1.50 2.61 NA NA -2 1 -26 Jun-13 17.3 15.4 -9.7 -1.6 1.0 0.8 4.3 3.4 12.2 5.5 Parkson Retail Asia PRA SP OP 485 0.07 0.90 1.28 42 -2 -7 -42 Jun-13 16.4 12.9 12.4 1.0 2.4 1.3 7.4 6.1 16.6 14.6 Ramayana Lestari RALS IJ IL 757 0.28 1,240 1,238 0 2 17 -16 Dec-13 17.8 15.0 22.7 0.7 2.5 1.4 10.4 2.8 15.1 14.5 Robinson Dept. St. ROBINS TB IL 1,952 1.38 57.50 51.36 -11 10 20 -25 Dec-13 32.1 25.8 11.6 2.2 5.2 2.3 16.2 1.6 19.0 16.8 Selamat Sempurna SMSM IJ NR 486 0.08 3,920 NA NA -10 14 62 Dec-13 18.0 15.4 9.0 1.7 6.2 0.0 10.5 3.0 32.2 35.7 Sepatu Bata BATA IJ NR 107 0.00 960 NA NA 4 -9 13 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 11.9 NA Siam Global House GLOBAL TB NR 1,283 1.92 13.80 NA NA 11 2 -38 Dec-13 38.3 28.7 27.8 1.0 3.5 2.3 22.8 0.8 9.5 9.5 Singer Thailand PCL SINGER TB NR 169 0.40 20.50 NA NA 8 11 -26 Dec-13 15.4 13.1 14.9 0.9 3.4 1.6 11.8 2.5 22.2 25.4 Trikomsel Oke TRIO IJ NR 508 0.00 1,240 NA NA 0 -4 -30 Dec-13 11.1 9.9 11.2 0.9 NA 0.0 NA NA 28.5 23.8 Trisula International TRIS IJ NR 35 0.23 390 NA NA 3 -3 -20 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 19.3 NA Aggregate Jan-00 21.9 17.9 7.4 2.4 3.8 1.6 9.2 1.9 Consumer Staples Jan-00 Berli Jucker BJC TB NR 2,218 1.72 45.75 NA NA 2 -5 -25 Dec-13 30.4 26.8 5.6 4.8 4.1 1.6 15.2 1.8 13.6 14.4 Berjaya Food BFD MK NR 124 0.14 1.45 NA NA -5 -10 -15 Apr-13 17.7 14.2 11.7 1.2 2.1 2.7 15.6 2.7 30.6 13.5 Big C Supercentre BIGC TB NR 4,753 1.76 189.00 NA NA 3 3 -14 Dec-13 21.2 18.8 9.0 2.1 3.7 1.2 12.8 1.4 53.6 18.8 Breadtalk Group BREAD SP NR 299 0.47 1.33 NA NA -2 48 37 Dec-13 23.8 19.9 17.8 1.1 NA 0.6 6.1 1.6 19.7 15.1 Carlsberg Brewery CAB MK NR 1,158 0.49 12.10 NA NA 0 -1 -25 Dec-13 19.4 18.3 5.0 3.7 13.3 2.3 13.7 5.1 72.3 68.0 Century Pacific Food CNPF PM NR 846 3.55 16.64 NA NA 2 NA NA Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Cocoaland Holdings COLA MK NR 109 0.04 2.05 NA NA -5 -4 -18 Dec-13 17.1 15.8 0.6 27.1 1.6 1.4 9.5 3.3 10.9 9.8 CP ALL CPALL TB UP 12,564 22.00 45.75 25.74 -44 5 9 5 Dec-13 28.0 21.9 33.5 0.7 11.9 1.1 17.4 2.1 13.4 46.2 Del Monte Pacific DELM SP NR 610 0.89 0.59 NA NA 5 -3 -34 Dec-13 15.2 11.2 84.0 0.1 2.2 1.1 9.9 3.0 17.4 15.0 D&L Industries DNL PM NR 747 1.48 9.18 NA NA -1 46 11 Dec-13 20.3 17.5 16.0 1.1 3.9 2.7 15.3 1.6 21.3 18.0 DSG International DSGT TB NR 323 0.11 8.40 NA NA -4 15 7 Dec-13 29.0 26.3 -8.9 -2.9 5.7 1.3 15.3 1.4 NA 20.2 Emperador EMP PM NR 3,952 2.24 11.56 NA NA 2 8 -39 Dec-13 25.1 21.5 1.7 12.5 5.7 3.8 15.2 2.2 30.5 22.9 Fastfood Indon. FAST IJ NR 379 0.01 2,205 NA NA -2 16 -27 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 25.2 NA Food Empire Hldg. FEH SP NR 174 0.05 0.41 NA NA 1 -24 -39 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 14.8 NA Guiness Anchor GUIN MK NR 1,267 0.33 13.48 NA NA 0 -16 -35 Jun-13 21.1 19.9 -3.1 -6.4 10.8 2.5 14.2 4.5 43.2 51.5 Hero Supermarket HERO IJ NR 972 0.05 2,700 NA NA 5 11 -32 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 12.1 NA Hup Seng Industries HSI MK NR 286 0.29 1.15 NA NA -1 20 95 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 21.0 NA Indofood Sukses INDF IJ OP 5,139 6.12 6,800 8,521 25 0 3 -7 Dec-13 13.1 9.8 56.0 0.2 2.3 0.9 6.0 3.8 17.4 18.3 Ichitan Group ICHI TB NR 955 61.28 24 NA NA -4 NA NA Dec-13 27.7 22.7 NA NA 4.7 NA 22.6 1.7 23.9 25.1 JB Foods JBF SP NR 94 0.03 0.25 NA NA 0 -18 -44 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 27.5 NA
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Figure 51: Complete universe screens (contd)
6-month average volume traded is denoted by 6-month average volume; (2) deviation in price target from the current share price is denoted by +/-; (3) EPS for FY1 is calendarised to arrive at the PERs for all rated stocks; and (4) dividend yield is denoted by D/Y; share prices as of 29 May 2014; Bloomberg estimates for NR stocks. Sources: Bloomberg, Companies, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Company name Ticker Rec Mkt cap (USDm) 6-month AD Liq. (USDm) Share price (LCY) Price target (LCY) "+/-" (%) % change 1W % change YTD % change 12M FYE PER FY1E PER FY2E EPS CAGR FY0-FY2E PEG PBR FY1E PS FY1E EV/ EBITDA FY1E Div yield FY1E ROCE FY1E ROE FY1E JG Summit Holdings JGS PM NR 7,453 3.92 46.60 NA NA -9 21 -1 Dec-13 19.6 17.8 33.1 0.5 1.7 1.7 12.0 0.4 13.0 8.5 Jollibee Foods JFC PM NR 4,456 2.39 185.30 NA NA 0 7 24 Dec-13 37.0 32.0 14.1 2.3 8.0 2.2 18.7 1.3 37.1 21.9 Malee Sampran MALEE TB NR 172 0.38 40 NA NA 4 34 -28 Dec-13 12.5 9.0 49.1 0.2 NA 0.9 8.2 5.1 25.3 39.2 Matahari Putra Prima MPPA IJ NR 1,326 8.12 2,865 NA NA 1 48 21 Dec-13 38.8 28.8 9.7 3.0 6.3 0.0 17.9 0.8 18.9 12.7 Mayora Indah MYOR IJ IL 2,219 0.11 28,825 27,895 -3 1 11 -7 Dec-13 22.9 18.8 30.8 0.6 5.1 1.8 13.4 1.0 19.8 24.1 Midi Utama MIDI IJ NR 127 0.00 510 NA NA 1 -4 -27 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 26.9 NA Minor Intl. MINT TB NR 3,037 6.14 24.90 NA NA -3 20 -9 Dec-13 22.4 19.0 12.1 1.6 3.6 2.6 14.9 1.6 23.3 16.9 Modern Intl. MDRN IJ NR 242 0.06 675 NA NA 5 -12 -32 Dec-13 45.9 30.4 23.7 1.3 2.6 0.0 13.1 0.4 10.2 6.1 MK Restaurants M TB OP 1,599 2.42 57.75 65.90 14 4 13 NA Dec-13 23.0 21.0 10.6 2.0 4.0 3.5 14.0 3.0 18.9 17.7 Nippon Indosari ROTI IJ IL 523 0.30 1,200 1,225 2 1 18 -32 Dec-13 4.6 3.7 186.2 0.0 1.2 2.8 4.4 5.5 16.7 29.2 NTPM Holdings NTPM MK NR 297 0.24 0.85 NA NA 1 13 63 Apr-13 15.2 14.7 14.9 1.0 2.8 1.8 9.7 3.5 15.7 17.3 Oishi Group OISHI TB NR 529 0.09 92.50 NA NA -6 7 -36 Dec-13 28.9 21.5 33.1 0.6 4.8 1.3 11.9 1.9 NA 16.3 Oldtown Bhd OTB MK NR 303 0.46 2.15 NA NA -1 3 -14 Dec-12 17.6 16.2 11.1 1.5 2.9 2.2 10.3 2.8 28.6 15.8 Pancake House Inc. PCKH PM NR 189 0.02 32.00 NA NA -4 113 176 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 46.2 NA Pepsi-Cola Products PIP PM NR 408 0.35 4.85 NA NA 3 8 -21 Dec-13 15.8 14.3 19.0 0.7 2.2 0.7 6.4 2.5 19.5 14.8 Petra Foods Ltd PETRA SP OP 1,908 0.80 3.92 4.00 2 -1 23 -6 Dec-13 28.0 24.5 14.6 1.7 5.8 3.5 15.4 0.8 31.6 21.9 Philippine Seven SEVN PM NR 957 0.03 91.55 NA NA -2 -7 16 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 35.4 NA Power Root PWRT MK NR 205 0.20 2.17 NA NA 1 10 10 Feb-14 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 17.4 NA Premier Marketing PCL PM TB NR 174 0.25 9.55 NA NA 2 31 -20 Dec-13 12.4 11.3 10.1 1.1 3.4 1.3 9.0 5.6 33.1 29.2 Puregold Price PGOLD PM NR 2,610 3.25 41.40 NA NA -1 9 6 Dec-13 24.6 20.8 17.9 1.2 3.6 1.3 14.8 0.9 23.9 14.6 RFM Corp RFM PM NR 479 0.11 6.00 NA NA -3 8 7 Dec-13 21.8 19.7 10.7 1.8 2.8 1.7 12.8 1.2 11.1 13.3 Robinsons Retail RRHI PM NR 1,961 2.20 63.00 NA NA -5 14 NA Dec-13 24.1 20.0 -8.8 -2.3 2.2 0.5 9.8 0.7 16.2 9.5 Sheng Siong SSG SP NR 684 0.35 0.62 NA NA 1 2 -6 Dec-13 19.4 18.2 10.0 1.8 5.4 1.2 12.6 4.7 21.7 28.4 S.Khonkaen Food SORKON NR 58 0.04 78.00 NA NA 2 9 3 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 31.0 NA Siam Makro MAKRO TB NR 5,341 0.24 36.50 NA NA 8 26 -5 Dec-13 33.6 27.8 20.8 1.3 13.8 1.2 21.7 2.6 40.7 44.1 Siantar Top STTP IJ NR 350 0.00 3,100 NA NA 3 100 65 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 18.7 NA Sumber Alfaria AMRT IJ NR 1,624 0.09 500 NA NA 2 11 -27 Dec-13 30.6 24.2 20.4 1.2 7.0 0.0 10.1 1.4 32.7 24.9 Super Group SUPER SP IL 1,315 2.26 1.48 2.09 41 3 -22 -38 Dec-13 18.0 15.8 13.1 1.2 3.2 2.7 12.6 2.8 20.7 18.7 Supra Boga Lestari RANC IJ NR 83 0.05 620 NA NA 0 -6 -40 Dec-13 19.8 16.5 29.2 0.6 2.3 0.0 10.6 1.0 11.3 12.0 Tiga Pilar Food AISA IJ NR 650 0.88 2,580 NA NA 11 80 76 Dec-13 18.4 14.3 30.4 0.5 3.2 0.0 9.6 0.6 18.0 16.9 Tipco Foods TIPCO TB NR 113 0.92 7.70 NA NA 2 8 -36 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 11.4 NA Ultrajaya ULTJ IJ NR 1,040 0.11 4,185 NA NA 0 -7 -8 Dec-13 24.5 18.9 40.4 0.5 NA 0.0 14.9 NA 19.1 NA Universal Robina URC PM OP 7,459 7.65 150.00 195.60 30 -2 34 19 Sep-13 27.6 24.2 21.3 1.1 6.0 3.5 18.0 2.4 24.9 22.5 Wismilak Inti Makmur WIIM IJ NR 113 0.11 625 NA NA 0 -7 -37 Dec-13 9.4 8.6 7.3 1.2 1.5 0.0 6.1 3.0 19.0 17.3 Yeo Hiap Seng YHS SP NR 1,008 0.07 2.20 NA NA 0 -8 -21 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 14.8 4.0 Aggregate 24.5 20.7 16.7 1.2 4.0 1.6 12.4 1.7 Financials COL Financial COL PM NR 164 0.02 15.40 NA NA 3 -6 -21 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Diversified Alliance Global AGI PM NR 7,022 6.53 30.00 NA NA -1 16 20 Dec-13 17.0 14.8 9.3 1.6 2.6 2.3 10.9 1.6 11.9 15.2 Berjaya Corp. BC MK NR 636 1.27 0.49 NA NA -1 -17 -21 Apr-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 7.3 NA Boustead Hldg. BOUS MK NR 1,706 0.55 5.30 NA NA -2 -6 -3 Dec-13 12.9 11.9 -2.0 -6.1 1.0 0.5 12.1 5.6 19.2 8.5 Aggregate 17.1 15.1 3.4 4.5 2.1 1.4 14.1 2.2 Healthcare Bangkok Chain Hospital BCH TB NR 582 0.91 7.65 NA NA -1 26 -19 Dec-13 27.5 23.5 18.9 1.2 4.4 3.6 15.1 2.1 12.3 16.4 Bangkok Dusit Medical BGH TB NR 7,745 10.79 16.40 NA NA 6 40 -3 Dec-13 36.1 30.8 14.7 2.1 5.5 4.5 22.4 1.3 20.6 16.6 Biosensors Intl. BIG SP NR 1,292 3.57 0.96 NA NA -5 14 -18 Mar-14 23.1 20.6 24.7 0.8 1.1 3.9 12.1 0.9 NA 5.1 Bumrungrad Hospital BH TB NR 2,499 2.21 112.50 NA NA 0 28 33 Dec-13 31.6 27.1 9.6 2.8 7.8 6.2 18.6 1.7 19.0 27.0 Caring Pharmacy Group Caring MK NR 146 0.26 2.15 NA NA 1 9 NA May-13 21.5 17.2 NA NA 3.7 NA 11.4 1.6 NA 17.4 Hartalega Hldg. HART MK NR 1,384 1.26 5.95 NA NA 0 -18 7 Mar-14 18.0 18.1 2.3 7.9 4.9 3.9 11.8 2.5 32.9 28.8 IHH Healthcare IHH MK NR 10,590 5.15 4.17 NA NA -2 8 4 Dec-13 43.9 36.9 20.5 1.8 1.8 4.4 19.8 0.4 6.6 4.1 IHH Healthcare IHH SP NR 10,473 0.12 1.61 NA NA -1 7 -1 Dec-13 43.4 36.5 NA NA 1.8 NA 19.6 0.4 6.6 4.1 Karex KAREXMK NR 378 0.82 3.00 NA NA -4 8 NA Jun-13 23.6 16.9 -80.3 -0.2 6.0 0.0 18.1 0.9 24.1 27.9 Kalbe Farma Tbk KLBF IJ NR 6,515 6.89 1,615.00 NA NA -2 29 6 Dec-13 32.8 27.0 20.8 1.3 8.0 0.0 22.3 1.3 27.1 25.1 Kimia Farma Persero KAEF IJ NR 497 0.36 1,040 NA NA 14 76 9 Dec-13 24.4 19.4 17.9 1.1 3.2 0.0 16.1 0.7 14.1 13.1
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Figure 51: Complete universe screens (contd)
6-month average volume traded is denoted by 6-month average volume; (2) deviation in price target from the current share price is denoted by +/-; (3) EPS for FY1 is calendarised to arrive at the PERs for all rated stocks; and (4) dividend yield is denoted by D/Y; share prices as of 29 May 2014; Bloomberg estimates for NR stocks. Sources: Bloomberg, Companies, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Company name Ticker Rec Mkt cap (USDm) 6-month AD Liq. (USDm) Share price (LCY) Price target (LCY) "+/-" (%) % change 1W % change YTD % change 12M FYE PER FY1E PER FY2E EPS CAGR FY0-FY2E PEG PBR FY1E PS FY1E EV/ EBITDA FY1E Div yield FY1E ROCE FY1E ROE FY1E Kossan Rubber KRI MK NR 794 1.36 4 NA NA 2 -8 85 Dec-13 14.5 12.1 22.3 0.5 3.1 1.6 9.2 2.5 17.1 22.8 KPJ Healthcare KPJ MK OP 1,054 1.11 3.31 3.62 9 -1 -15 -21 Dec-13 31.7 27.7 8.8 3.1 3.0 1.3 17.5 1.6 7.6 9.8 Mega Lifesciences MEGA TB NR 575 2.78 21.80 NA NA 1 9 NA Dec-13 26.4 22.0 8.7 2.5 4.3 2.0 18.0 1.6 23.7 15.9 Pharmaniaga Bhd PHRM MK NR 373 0.23 4.63 NA NA -3 4 2 Dec-13 14.0 13.0 29.0 0.4 2.3 0.6 7.2 3.9 22.9 16.3 Siloam International SILO IJ OP 1,190 8.86 13,200 13,982 6 1 39 NA Dec-13 127.3 85.4 80.2 1.1 8.7 4.2 30.0 0.1 8.5 7.1 Sido Muncul SIDO IJ NR 1,065 2.12 825 NA NA 4 18 NA Dec-13 26.9 23.2 14.7 1.6 5.0 0.0 16.8 1.6 21.2 19.5 Supermax Corp SUCB MK NR 503 1.99 2.38 NA NA 1 -14 19 Dec-13 10.8 9.5 15.1 0.6 1.6 1.2 9.2 2.6 18.6 15.3 Tempo Scan TSPC IJ OP 1,094 0.22 2,825 3,878 37 3 -13 -38 Nov-13 18.2 15.2 14.7 1.0 3.0 1.6 11.2 3.0 19.5 17.3 Top Glove Corp TOPG MK NR 916 1.82 5 NA NA 1 -16 -22 Aug-13 14.6 13.5 5.0 2.7 2.0 1.2 8.6 3.4 15.3 14.3 Raffles Medical RFMD SP OP 1,628 1.05 3.67 4.16 13 3 18 9 Dec-13 27.8 24.9 13.3 1.9 3.9 5.4 20.0 1.6 16.4 15.5 Vibhavadi Medical Center VIBHA TB NR 564 0.91 14.70 NA NA -3 59 -3 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 28.7 NA Aggregate 33.1 28.1 13.8 2.0 2.7 3.5 16.1 1.1 Industrials Adhi Karya ADHI IJ NR 495 6.53 3,190 NA NA 1 111 -15 Dec-13 13.0 10.1 18.3 0.6 3.1 0.0 5.5 1.9 20.4 24.5 AirAsia AIRA MK OP 2,207 6.15 2.56 2.90 13 0 16 -19 Dec-13 8.8 7.1 19.7 0.4 1.2 1.2 8.3 2.3 8.2 15.1 Astra Otoparts AUTO IJ NR 1,576 0.39 3,800 NA NA 3 4 -11 Dec-13 13.5 11.5 21.4 0.5 1.8 0.0 14.7 3.1 27.1 14.2 Airports of Thailand AOT TB OP 8,014 32.69 183.50 211.00 15 -3 16 -1 Sep-13 22.8 16.0 19.9 0.8 2.6 6.9 13.8 1.5 10.5 12.1 AKR Corporindo AKRA IJ OP 1,490 3.12 4,460 6,050 36 2 2 -17 Dec-13 17.4 13.0 29.3 0.4 2.8 0.6 7.0 2.3 20.6 34.5 Amtek Engineering AMTK SP OP 208 0.13 0.48 NA NA -1 23 18 Jun-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Arwana Citramulia ARNA IJ OP 626 0.33 990 983 -1 5 21 27 Dec-13 26.0 20.4 23.2 0.9 8.1 4.2 22.3 1.9 41.9 34.9 ASL Marine Hldg. ASL SP IL 230 0.08 0.69 NA NA -2 -4 -3 Jun-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Asia File Corp AF MK NR 254 0.13 6.96 NA NA -3 59 99 Mar-14 13.7 11.3 8.7 1.3 1.9 2.2 9.9 4.0 18.4 14.3 Berlina Tbk BRNA IJ NR 35 0.01 590 NA NA 3 30 2 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 19.2 NA Boustead Singapore BOCS SP OP 787 0.70 1.86 2.02 9 0 10 36 Mar-14 16.8 14.9 -12.2 -1.2 3.0 1.8 10.3 2.7 18.5 18.2 BTS Group BTS TB NR 3,015 13.20 8.30 NA NA 3 -5 -3 Mar-14 40.7 37.2 -54.6 -0.7 1.6 12.1 22.3 6.3 29.5 11.1 Cardig Aero Services CASS IJ NR 167 0.04 930 NA NA -1 13 12 Dec-13 15.2 11.1 26.2 0.4 NA 0.0 5.1 2.5 80.0 34.2 Cebu Air, Inc. CEB PM OP 748 0.23 54.15 65.00 20 -1 16 -33 Dec-13 12.9 8.6 29.2 0.3 1.5 0.7 7.7 1.4 6.6 7.1 China XLXFertiliser CXLXSP UP 307 0.13 0.39 0.28 -27 0 1 -8 Dec-13 6.2 6.3 50.1 0.1 0.9 0.4 5.8 3.8 10.4 14.9 Citra Marga Nusa CMNP IJ NR 678 0.17 3,580 NA NA 2 7 90 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 31.0 NA Concepcion Industrial CIC PM NR 217 0.11 37 NA NA -6 49 NA Dec-13 16.2 13.7 -3.9 -3.5 NA 0.7 6.3 1.5 34.9 17.2 CWT CWT SP OP 855 0.87 1.79 1.95 9 3 32 1 Dec-13 10.4 8.9 6.6 1.4 1.5 0.1 9.2 1.7 12.5 14.9 Diamond Building DRT TB NR 198 0.20 6.20 NA NA 4 -22 -37 Dec-13 13.4 12.4 7.9 1.6 2.7 1.4 8.2 6.1 16.7 20.6 Dynasty Ceramic DCC TB NR 690 0.32 55.50 NA NA 4 14 -8 Dec-13 16.8 15.3 6.8 2.3 8.2 2.9 11.8 6.1 48.7 48.9 EEI Corp EEI PM NR 242 0.28 10.26 NA NA -6 7 -33 Dec-13 10.7 9.8 8.9 1.1 1.6 0.8 9.6 1.6 22.5 16.2 Express Transindo TAXI IJ NR 244 1.71 1,320 NA NA 2 -10 -15 Dec-13 19.3 16.0 15.5 1.0 3.1 0.0 7.0 1.0 13.8 17.3 Ezion Holdings EZI SP OP 2,285 10.69 2.19 2.70 23 1 -1 8 Dec-13 10.8 9.0 28.2 0.3 1.9 4.0 10.5 0.0 12.6 21.7 Ezra Holdings EZRA SP IL 826 5.25 1.06 1.05 -1 1 -23 10 Aug-13 19.7 10.7 NA NA 0.7 0.5 12.6 0.0 4.8 5.2 Favelle Favco FFB MK NR 234 0.18 3.49 NA NA 0 11 36 Dec-13 10.3 9.4 8.2 1.2 NA 0.9 6.5 4.0 22.1 17.2 Goodpack GPACK SP OP 1,097 1.45 2.46 2.71 10 3 26 50 Jun-13 19.8 17.7 11.4 1.6 2.8 5.1 12.1 2.6 12.8 15.4 Hexindo Adiperkasa HEXA IJ NR 278 0.11 3,850 NA NA 1 19 -25 Mar-13 10.4 8.3 -29.3 -0.3 1.3 NA 9.0 8.8 33.2 14.8 Hi-P International HIP SP OP 449 0.34 0.68 1.00 48 5 -3 -32 Dec-13 6.0 NA NA NA 0.7 0.3 1.7 6.7 19.0 13.0 Hyflux Limited HYF SP IL 817 0.74 1.20 1.70 42 1 2 -11 Dec-13 10.5 NA NA NA 0.8 1.3 7.9 6.4 5.5 8.4 Indomobil Sukses IMAS IJ NR 1,166 0.09 4,900 NA NA 4 0 -7 Dec-13 14.8 11.7 47.4 0.2 2.1 0.0 17.6 1.1 NA 15.0 IRPC IRPC TB IL 2,171 2.71 3.52 3.50 -1 -2 8 -8 Dec-13 21.9 18.4 93.1 0.2 0.9 0.3 11.3 0.7 4.9 4.2 Italian-Thai Dev ITD TB NR 664 5.06 4.48 NA NA 22 15 -46 Dec-13 29.3 25.2 -6.7 -3.8 1.7 0.4 9.6 1.6 13.2 6.6 Jasa Marga Persero JSMR IJ NR 3,511 3.88 6,000 NA NA 0 27 -11 Dec-13 24.7 21.7 18.6 1.2 4.0 0.0 12.5 1.5 NA 16.3 KS Energy Services KST SP NR 188 0.03 0.45 NA NA 5 -9 11 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.9 NA Marco Polo Marine MPM SP NR 102 0.07 0.38 NA NA 6 -4 -5 Sep-13 8.3 6.0 -2.3 -2.6 NA 1.0 7.0 3.2 16.7 11.5 Megawide Construction MWIDE PM NR 483 0.29 12.84 NA NA 0 -8 -21 Dec-13 15.1 12.5 -4.5 -2.8 2.1 1.5 7.6 0.6 21.1 17.9 Midas Holdings MIDAS SP UP 441 1.75 0.46 0.36 -21 2 -11 -7 Dec-13 19.6 16.3 128.9 0.1 0.9 2.0 9.5 1.7 5.0 4.7 Mitra Pinasthika Mustika MPMXIJ NR 499 0.18 1,300 NA NA 6 2 -11 Dec-13 8.9 7.5 5.3 1.4 1.2 0.0 6.5 3.2 27.5 13.4 Muhibbah Engineering MUHI MK NR 367 1.19 2.79 NA NA 1 22 91 Dec-13 10.3 8.7 24.8 0.4 1.8 0.6 8.7 2.1 NA 18.6 Neptune Orient Lines NOL SP IL 2,024 2.10 0.99 1.00 2 1 -12 -11 Dec-13 nm 16.6 NA NA 1.0 0.2 17.7 -0.5 0.3 -2.9 Otto Marine OTML SP IL 177 2.50 0.07 0.05 -23 4 -25 -13 Dec-13 nm NA NA NA 0.5 0.4 375.6 0.0 0.3 -4.3 Pan-United Corp PAN SP NR 466 0.19 1.04 NA NA 6 8 3 Dec-13 12.2 11.4 6.7 1.7 2.0 0.7 6.3 4.3 13.8 16.8 PEC PEC SP NR 111 0.03 0.55 NA NA 1 -2 -9 Jun-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2.8 NA
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Figure 51: Complete universe screens (contd)
6-month average volume traded is denoted by 6-month average volume; (2) deviation in price target from the current share price is denoted by +/-; (3) EPS for FY1 is calendarised to arrive at the PERs for all rated stocks; and (4) dividend yield is denoted by D/Y; share prices as of 29 May 2014; Bloomberg estimates for NR stocks. Sources: Bloomberg, Companies, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Company name Ticker Rec Mkt cap (USDm) 6-month AD Liq. (USDm) Share price (LCY) Price target (LCY) "+/-" (%) % change 1W % change YTD % change 12M FYE PER FY1E PER FY2E EPS CAGR FY0-FY2E PEG PBR FY1E PS FY1E EV/ EBITDA FY1E Div yield FY1E ROCE FY1E ROE FY1E Phoenix Petroleum PNXPM NR 202 0.09 6.20 NA NA 2 38 -14 Dec-13 8.4 6.4 41.3 0.2 1.3 0.1 7.9 2.0 NA 16.1 Selamat Sempurna SMSM IJ NR 486 0.08 3,920 NA NA -10 14 62 Dec-13 18.0 15.4 9.0 1.7 6.2 0.0 10.5 3.0 32.2 35.7 Tat Hong Holdings TAT SP NR 429 0.40 0.86 NA NA 6 -5 -42 Mar-14 12.4 12.2 17.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 7.6 2.9 10.8 6.6 Thai Airways Intl. THAI TB UP 1,628 6.51 24.40 NA NA 12 4 -54 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Tiger Airways Hldg. TGR SP IL 354 0.43 0.45 0.41 -9 8 -12 -31 Mar-14 nm nm NA NA 1.5 0.6 nm 0.0 -8.3 -93.4 Total Bangun Persada TOTL IJ NR 247 0.92 840 NA NA 1 68 -42 Dec-13 14.7 12.3 9.3 1.3 3.4 0.0 9.5 3.9 29.5 26.2 World Precision Mach BWPM SP NR 113 0.01 0.36 NA NA -1 -4 -12 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 7.2 NA Aggregate 17.3 14.2 8.2 1.7 1.8 0.8 10.6 2.2 Media ABS-CBN Corp ABS PM NR 703 0.07 36.00 NA NA -4 11 -20 Dec-13 19.1 15.7 -7.8 -2.0 1.3 0.8 5.6 1.2 10.4 6.2 Asia Media Group AMGB MK NR 28 0.11 0.09 NA NA 0 0 -40 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 4.8 NA Asiatravel.com Holdings AST SP NR 65 0.11 0.28 NA NA 6 33 41 Sep-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Astro Malaysia ASTRO MK NR 5,614 2.27 3.47 NA NA 2 16 11 Jan-14 39.4 31.8 12.6 2.5 29.9 3.8 12.6 2.2 22.9 81.6 BEC World BEC TB IL 3,027 3.54 49.50 51.68 4 -3 -2 -24 Dec-13 17.3 15.6 7.3 2.2 10.0 5.1 9.3 5.2 57.5 60.4 Dyandra Media DYAN IJ NR 79 0.03 215 NA NA 0 -9 -39 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 9.1 14.9 Elang Mahkota Teknologi EMTK IJ NR 2,767 0.01 5,700 NA NA 0 3 -7 Dec-13 21.0 NA NA NA 4.6 0.0 10.4 1.0 21.4 23.9 First Media KBLV IJ NR 270 0.01 1,800 NA NA 11 210 140 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2.0 NA Global Mediacom BMTR IJ IL 2,524 2.05 2,095 2,599 24 -4 10 -16 Dec-13 15.1 11.8 37.1 0.3 2.2 2.3 5.5 1.7 19.4 16.1 GMA Network GMA7 PM NR 585 0.12 7.64 NA NA -1 -7 -19 Dec-13 26.8 18.6 9.3 2.0 NA 3.0 9.5 3.4 19.2 15.7 GMM Grammy PCL GRAMMY TB NR 293 0.03 15.10 NA NA -3 -20 -30 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA 6.5 0.8 NA 0.0 NA -60.1 Intermedia Capital MDIA IJ NR 641 0.22 1,900 NA NA 2 NA NA Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 6.0 NA Jobstreet Corp JOBS MK NR 486 0.76 2.42 NA NA -1 -2 32 Dec-13 22.0 18.6 15.6 1.2 NA NA NA NA 75.5 29.7 Kingsmen Creatives KMEN SP NR 144 0.03 0.93 NA NA -1 0 -3 Dec-13 9.3 8.5 9.3 0.9 NA 0.6 5.8 4.3 26.5 20.8 Mahaka Media ABBA IJ NR 19 0.01 80 NA NA -4 -20 -10 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 23.9 NA Major Cineplex MAJOR TB OP 465 1.12 17.10 22.43 31 -3 -2 -29 Dec-13 15.8 13.7 18.3 0.7 2.5 1.8 8.2 5.4 12.9 15.7 MCOT Plc. MCOT TB NR 545 0.45 26.00 NA NA -2 -10 -47 Dec-13 12.4 11.6 0.5 24.6 2.2 3.0 5.8 7.4 21.2 18.9 Media Nusantara MNCN IJ OP 3,279 2.58 2,720 3,185 17 4 4 -16 Dec-13 16.5 13.7 20.7 0.7 3.8 4.5 11.6 3.2 33.1 27.0 Media Prima MPR MK NR 870 0.95 2.53 NA NA 3 -3 -17 Dec-13 12.5 11.6 5.7 2.0 1.6 1.6 6.0 5.9 15.7 13.7 MNC Sky Vision MSKY IJ OP 1,274 0.16 2,095 3,039 45 0 5 -26 Dec-13 26.5 18.7 104.8 0.2 5.9 3.7 9.3 1.3 16.8 24.0 Nation Multimedia Group NMG TB NR 132 1.42 1.31 NA NA 0 -2 -44 Dec-13 11.9 10.1 14.0 0.7 1.1 1.1 4.5 NA 12.8 9.9 RS PCL RS TB NR 260 1.22 8.50 NA NA 4 20 -21 Dec-13 17.0 18.1 3.8 4.8 4.8 1.8 9.5 4.2 57.1 29.1 Star Publication STAR MK NR 586 0.52 2.55 NA NA 3 16 -1 Dec-13 13.6 12.3 3.7 3.4 1.6 1.8 6.8 6.0 19.7 11.1 Surya Citra Media SCMA IJ OP 3,989 1.87 3,170 3,961 25 1 21 6 Dec-13 27.3 22.2 26.7 0.8 12.2 10.3 18.8 2.6 58.7 52.0 VGI Global VGI TB NR 1,245 5.84 11.90 NA NA 5 21 -15 Mar-14 32.6 29.6 10.4 2.9 18.5 12.6 23.9 2.5 65.1 60.4 Visi Media Asia VIVA IJ NR 384 0.43 271 NA NA -1 -1 -44 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 8.3 NA Workpoint Ent. WORK TB NR 200 0.55 24.60 NA NA -1 -7 -53 Dec-13 25.4 22.5 4.6 4.9 3.7 2.5 12.2 2.4 21.9 17.7 Aggregate 22.0 20.7 7.2 2.9 22.0 3.5 6.5 2.7 Property ARA Asset Mngmt. ARA SP OP 1,185 0.46 1.76 2.10 19 -2 -5 -9 Dec-13 16.9 9.7 43.2 0.2 4.6 9.6 15.2 3.0 28.2 29.5 Kawasan Industry KIJA IJ NR 433 1.14 250 NA NA 1 30 -38 Dec-13 7.5 7.3 162.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 5.1 4.8 7.9 12.7 Lippo Karawaci LPKR IJ NR 2,175 8.35 1,095 NA NA 0 20 -35 Dec-13 15.2 15.1 15.9 0.9 1.9 0.0 9.7 1.4 6.6 13.3 Pakuwon Jati PWON IJ NR 1,538 1.59 371 NA NA -2 37 -11 Dec-13 12.1 9.5 28.7 0.3 3.4 0.0 8.9 1.6 68.2 32.0 Second Chance SCE SP NR 243 0.10 0.45 NA NA 0 -2 2 Aug-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 11.2 NA Surya Semesta SSIA IJ NR 292 1.78 720 NA NA 3 29 -54 Dec-13 5.0 4.4 5.2 0.9 1.2 0.0 2.9 4.0 33.7 26.5 Yoma Strategic Holdings YOMA SP NR 747 2.74 0.81 NA NA 13 8 -5 Mar-14 73.6 57.9 0.0 NA 2.5 9.9 41.1 0.6 7.5 3.7 Aggregate 14.3 11.6 16.5 0.7 2.4 3.2 9.8 2.1 Resources Astra Agro Lestari AALI IJ IL 3,768 3.42 27,800 27,242 -2 1 11 46 Dec-13 15.1 13.6 23.0 0.6 3.7 2.8 9.9 3.4 33.2 27.6 Bisi International BISI IJ NR 152 0.10 590 NA NA 1 5 -24 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 8.9 NA BW Plantation BWPT IJ OP 468 2.65 1,345 1,514 13 4 1 25 Dec-13 15.8 9.3 84.2 0.1 2.4 3.5 12.1 1.3 9.9 15.6
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Figure 51: Complete universe screens (contd)
6-month average volume traded is denoted by 6-month average volume; (2) deviation in price target from the current share price is denoted by +/-; (3) EPS for FY1 is calendarised to arrive at the PERs for all rated stocks; and (4) dividend yield is denoted by D/Y; share prices as of 29 May 2014; Bloomberg estimates for NR stocks. Sources: Bloomberg, Companies, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Company name Ticker Rec Mkt cap (USDm) 6-month AD Liq. (USDm) Share price (LCY) Price target (LCY) "+/-" (%) % change 1W % change YTD % change 12M FYE PER FY1E PER FY2E EPS CAGR FY0-FY2E PEG PBR FY1E PS FY1E EV/ EBITDA FY1E Div yield FY1E ROCE FY1E ROE FY1E Charoen Pokphand CPIN IJ IL 5,638 2.97 3,995 3,317 -17 4 18 -20 Dec-13 15.6 NA NA NA 4.8 2.3 11.2 1.9 39.3 34.3 Chemoil Energy Ltd CHEME SP NR 522 0.33 0.40 NA NA NA 38 13 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA First Resources Ltd FR SP OP 3,154 4.30 2.50 2.67 7 0 18 32 Dec-13 12.3 10.9 14.4 0.8 2.6 3.8 8.5 2.0 19.3 22.8 Genting Plantations GENP MK UP 2,675 1.03 11.36 9.37 -18 0 3 31 Dec-13 23.0 18.5 36.9 0.5 2.4 5.4 16.3 5.2 10.0 10.8 GMG Global GGL SP IL 647 1.02 0.11 NA NA 7 -12 -23 Dec-13 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.0 0.0 0.0 Indofood Agri Res. IFAR SP OP 1,134 1.37 1.01 1.23 22 -3 14 -3 Dec-13 11.4 8.8 -98.3 -0.1 0.9 0.1 4.8 1.3 9.3 7.9 Indofood CBP Sukses ICBP IJ OP 5,157 3.24 10,275 12,300 20 3 1 -19 Dec-13 17.9 14.8 17.6 0.8 4.0 2.0 11.7 2.1 25.7 23.8 Japfa Comfeed JPFA IJ UP 1,262 0.64 1,375 1,632 19 10 13 -29 Dec-13 8.7 7.1 17.1 0.4 2.1 0.6 6.0 2.3 23.2 26.6 London Sumatra Indo. LSIP IJ UP 1,392 6.66 2,370 2,071 -13 7 23 24 Dec-13 15.9 13.5 24.6 0.6 2.2 3.3 9.4 2.5 16.8 14.6 Pacific Andes Int. 1174 HK IL 177 0.14 0.29 0.47 62 0 -6 -18 Sep-13 3.0 NA NA NA 0.2 0.1 4.2 8.4 10.3 6.4 Petronas Dagangan PETD MK NR 7,761 5.00 25.10 NA NA 7 -20 1 Dec-13 28.5 23.7 13.8 1.7 4.9 0.7 15.8 2.6 17.8 18.1 QL Resouces QLG MK NR 1,255 0.58 3.23 NA NA 2 14 44 Mar-14 23.8 20.4 7.0 2.9 3.5 1.6 16.1 1.1 14.4 14.9 Sarawak Oil Palms SOP MK NR 900 0.36 6.59 NA NA -4 1 17 Dec-13 16.7 12.8 52.2 0.2 NA 1.2 8.6 0.6 13.4 12.6 Sino Grandness SFGI SP NR 321 1.23 0.69 NA NA 5 -6 -10 Dec-13 4.1 3.5 17.9 0.2 1.0 0.7 3.3 1.5 32.4 28.8 Sri Trang Agro STA TB IL 548 1.42 14.00 14.71 5 5 8 -8 Dec-13 9.1 7.1 17.7 0.4 0.9 0.2 10.9 3.3 10.5 9.8 Sri-Trang Agro Ind. STA SP IL NA 0.00 0.55 0.56 3 4 7 -13 Dec-13 0.4 0.3 502.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.1 84.3 10.3 9.9 TDM Bhd TDM MK NR 445 0.87 0.97 NA NA -2 2 22 Dec-13 13.2 11.2 67.6 0.2 NA 3.5 9.5 2.9 13.1 7.1 Thai Union Frozen TUF TB OP 2,394 4.94 68.25 85.54 25 1 -5 12 Dec-13 9.4 NA NA NA 1.7 0.6 7.9 4.4 16.9 19.4 TH Plantations THP MK NR 574 0.22 2.09 NA NA -3 11 11 Dec-13 22.0 18.7 25.0 0.7 1.5 3.2 13.8 2.2 14.6 5.8 Thai Vegetable Oil TVO TB OP 538 0.73 22.40 29.53 32 3 21 7 Dec-13 7.3 7.7 0.7 11.1 2.1 0.5 5.7 8.3 36.5 31.2 TSH Resources TSH MK NR 966 0.77 3.46 NA NA 1 15 50 Dec-13 19.9 17.4 5.5 3.2 2.5 2.4 14.8 1.0 17.5 13.3 United Plantations UPL MK UP 1,771 0.26 27.42 21.28 -22 -2 7 2 Dec-13 20.7 17.0 15.5 1.1 2.5 5.5 12.2 3.7 14.7 12.4 Aggregate 15.4 16.5 1.8 9.0 15.4 1.1 6.8 2.7 Tech/Telecom Jasmine International JAS TB NR 1,730 38.19 7.95 NA NA -1 19 -15 Dec-13 15.3 12.5 23.2 0.5 4.3 4.3 7.9 3.4 25.4 30.7 M1 M1 SP OP 2,625 1.94 3.53 4.00 13 1 10 14 Dec-13 19.6 18.6 4.5 4.2 7.4 3.2 10.6 4.3 27.1 39.8 Silverlake Axis SILV SP NR 1,790 1.23 1.00 NA NA 9 14 28 Jun-13 23.7 20.8 15.3 1.4 11.5 10.8 20.4 3.2 62.5 39.3 Sarana Menara TOWR IJ NR 3,425 0.07 3,900 NA NA 3 42 53 Dec-13 33.0 28.2 189.5 0.1 8.6 0.0 15.2 0.7 5.2 26.7 Solusi Tunas SUPR IJ NR 571 0.01 8,350 NA NA -1 2 20 Dec-13 20.6 16.2 42.8 0.4 2.4 0.0 9.3 NA 55.7 12.8 Thaicom PCL THCOM TB NR 1,278 3.67 38.25 NA NA -4 -6 0 Dec-13 24.8 19.4 38.3 0.5 2.5 4.5 9.4 1.9 19.0 10.5 Tower Bersama TBIG IJ NR 3,014 1.27 7,300 NA NA 6 26 27 Dec-13 23.8 19.0 21.6 0.9 6.0 0.0 14.3 1.1 NA 28.0 Venture Corp VMS SP IL 1,749 2.51 7.68 7.15 -7 2 -5 0 Dec-13 13.7 12.9 10.4 1.2 1.2 0.8 9.3 6.5 8.3 8.5 Aggregate 16.7 14.7 25.9 0.6 16.7 2.8 8.4 3.3 Insurance Thai Reinsurance THRE TB NR 349 0.57 3.26 NA NA 5 -14 -52 Dec-13 12.4 10.9 NA NA 3.4 2.0 10.6 0.0 NA 27.7 Aggregate 12.4 10.9 NA NA 3.4 2.0 10.6 0.0
(1) 6-month average volume traded is denoted by 6-month average volume; (2) deviation in price target from the current share price is denoted by +/-; (3) EPS for FY1 is calendarised to arrive at the PERs for all rated stocks; and (4) dividend yield is denoted by D/Y; share prices as of 29 May 2014. Sources: Bloomberg, Companies, Standard Chartered Research estimates
30 May 2014 30 Disclosures appendix The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, Standard Chartered Bank Singapore Branch, Standard Chartered Securities (India) Limited, Standard Chartered Securities Korea Limited and/or one or more of its affiliates (together with its group of companies, SCB) and the research analyst(s) named in this report. THIS RESEARCH HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCED IN THE UNITED STATES.
Analyst Certification Disclosure: The research analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this research report certify that: (1) the views expressed and attributed to the research analyst or analysts in the research report accurately reflect their personal opinion(s) about the subject securities and issuers and/or other subject matter as appropriate; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. On a general basis, the efficacy of recommendations is a factor in the performance appraisals of analysts. Where disclosure date appears below, this means the day prior to the report date. All share prices quoted are the closing price for the business day prior to the date of the report, unless otherwise stated.
Recommendation Distribution and Investment Banking Relationships
% of covered companies currently assigned this rating % of companies assigned this rating with which SCB has provided investment banking services over the past 12 months OUTPERFORM 54.4% 12.7% IN-LINE 35.4% 11.5% UNDERPERFORM 10.2% 7.7% As of 31 March 2014
Research Recommendation
Terminology Definitions OUTPERFORM (OP) The total return on the security is expected to outperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next 12 months IN-LINE (IL) The total return on the security is not expected to outperform or underperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next 12 months UNDERPERFORM (UP) The total return on the security is expected to underperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next 12 months
SCB uses an investment horizon of 12 months for its price targets.
Additional information, including disclosures, with respect to any securities referred to herein will be available upon request. Requests should be sent to scer@sc.com.
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