High-altitude brinkmanship

November 28, 2013 10:22 pm, Manila Times

Its a dangerous game of brinkmanship China and Japan are playing over a group of small islands in the East
China Sea.
Beijing and Tokyo have long been contesting ownership of the cluster of five islets that is known as Diaoyu to
the Chinese and Senkaku to the Japanese. At present Tokyo has the upper hand, having administrative control
of three of the islets, but that hasnt stopped Beijing from aggressively pursuing its claim.
Tensions between the two Asian superpowers over Diaoyu/Senkaku have ebbed and flowed through the years
but never escalated to the point of causing a serious tear in their relations. But since last week a string of fast-
breaking developments is ringing alarm bells all over the region and in Washington.
Seemingly out of the blue, China announced it was establishing an air defense identification zone in the East
China Sea. All aircraft entering the ADIZ are required to clearly identify themselves and maintain radio contact
with Chinese authorities. Failure to do so risks an unfortunate encounter with Chinese jet fighters.
Theres a problem: The Chinese ADIZ not only overlaps with Japans own air defense zone, but it also covers
the disputed islets.
The Japanese response was swift. It scrambled two of its fighter jets to chase away two Chinese
reconnaissance planes that entered Japans own ADIZ and approached Diaoyu-Senkaku. The cat-and-mouse
game in the sky ended without incident, but it had warning signs flashing.
The row has pulled in the US, who is Japans closest ally, and who is establishing a bigger naval presence in
the Pacific.
The US sent two of its aging B-52s bombers into the Chinese air defense zone, daring Beijing to react. The B-
52s were left alone, although Chinese authorities said later it monitored the US planes.
Not soon after it was a South Korean military planes turn to defy the Chinese ADIZ. Again Beijing thought it
best not to intercept.
Rubbing salt on Chinas wounds, several airlines declared they will fly through the disputed air space and
ignore the restrictions.
Chinas restrained response to the flouting of its rules leaves many wondering if it bit off more than it could
chew. Was setting up the air defense zone just a show of bravado? Did Beijing really think it could enforce the
restrictions?
Stung perhaps by the defiance of Japan and its allies, China announced that it was deploying its lone aircraft
carrier to the East China Sea.
The Chinese show of force could only trigger a dangerous facedown in the already volatile area. The US
certainly is not backing down, committed as it is to its Pacific pivot strategy. Japan is not expected to soften its
stance, either.
Establishing the ADIZ was far from an off-the-cuff decision by Beijing. It fits snugly into Chinas grand plan to
dominate the region economically and militarily.
Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario believes China also wants to control air space over contested areas of the
South China Sea.
It transforms an entire air zone into Chinas domestic air space. And that is an infringement, and compromises
the safety of civil aviation, del Rosario said.
The Philippines is already in the middle of a territorial row with China. It cannot afford to be an unwilling player
in a game of brinkmanship that could escalate into a shooting war.