1

!"#$% '()* + ,-./)(0

12345566676"#$%8()*7"#95:)5/(*-)9;/"<*
2
!"#$% '()* + ,-./)(0
=>?@A BC>'DEDCF @G=>DHB > IGF ?AH?G@H JA@
=ABC ,DGCH>=GBG ?DCDKGHB
( of cluzens who vlewed Lhe below lssue as a serlous problem)
13
21
22
24
31
34
34
34
40
44
0 3 10 13 20 23 30 33 40 43 30
!obs/LmploymenLs
lncome
CuallLy of educauon
CuallLy of healLhcare
LnvlronmenL polluuon
Corrupuon
Soclal evll
lood safeLy
1ramc accldenL
CosL of llvlng
Macroeconomlc sLablllLy
versus CrowLh
!"#$%&' )"$$#*+", -$". /0& 1&$2*&%+3& "- )4+5&,26 74$.2 8,9 1#:;4% <,/&$*$42&26 => 8,9 ?"$;9 @8,A BCDECF
3
!"#$% '()* + ,-./)(0
@GE>CD,GEF BC>'EG =>?@AG?AHA=D? BDCL>CDAH
7
2.1
11
0
10
20
30
40
C-09 l-10 !-10 C-10 l-11 !-11 C-11 l-12 !-12 C-12
M.(%$-).N O""% ()% <"#. -)P(Q") #(/. RS"SN TU
Peadllne
lood
Core
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
nov-09 May-10 nov-10 May-11 nov-11 May-12 nov-12
arallel markeL (mld)
Cmclal raLe (S8v)
Cmclal upper band
GV<1()9. #(/. R,HW4 LBWU
0
100
200
300
400
300
600
700
800
!-09 M-09 S-09 !-10 M-10 S-10 !-11 M-11 S-11 !-12 M-12 S-12
Soverelgn spreads
CuS, 3 years
X#-<-)9 "O #-;*;
1.9
1.8
2.1
2.0
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.3
0
1
2
3
q4-10 q1-11 q2-11 q3-11 q4-11 q1-12 q2-12 q3-12
D)/.#)(Q")($ #.;.#:.; R-) 0")/1; "O -03"#/;U
LHWG@XDHHGW 'F > BCG>WF CL@H>@ALHW DH CMG
GYCG@H>E >??ALHCB
4
!"#$% '()* + ,-./)(0
( of Cu)
1.1
0.3
9.8
11.9
6.6
4.1
-0.2
-2.7
4.6 4.6
14.6
14.2
8.9
5.0
0.4
-4.7
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f
Current account deficit Trade deficit (BOP definition)
W.Z<-/
B[#3$[;
3
!"#$% '()* + ,-./)(0
\@A!CM BEA!WA!H4 ?F?ED?>E ,B7 BC@L?CL@>E]
8eal Cu CrowLh 8aLe (): Cycllcal upLurn and SLrucLural uownLurn
6
.
9

6
.
9

7
.
3

7
.
9

7
.
1

7
.
2

7
.
8

8
.
8

7
.
3

7
.
8
9
.
1

9
.
1

7
.
1

7
.
3

8
.
7

9
.
2

7
.
8

8
.
0

8
.
6

9
.
2

7
.
3

3
.
7

6
.
0

3
.
9

3
.
1
4
.
3

6
.
0

6
.
9

3
.
8

6
.
4

7
.
2

7
.
3

3
.
6

3
.
7

6
.
1

6
.
1

4
.
0

4
.
7

3
.
4

6
.
3

7.3
7.8
8.3
8.2
8.3
6.3
3.3
6.8
3.9
3.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
q
1
-
0
3

q
2
-
0
3

q
3
-
0
3

q
4
-
0
3

q
1
-
0
4

q
2
-
0
4

q
3
-
0
4

q
4
-
0
4

q
1
-
0
3

q
2
-
0
3

q
3
-
0
3

q
4
-
0
3

q
1
-
0
6

q
2
-
0
6

q
3
-
0
6

q
4
-
0
6

q
1
-
0
7

q
2
-
0
7

q
3
-
0
7

q
4
-
0
7

q
1
-
0
8

q
2
-
0
8

q
3
-
0
8

q
4
-
0
8

q
1
-
0
9

q
2
-
0
9

q
3
-
0
9

q
4
-
0
9

q
1
-
1
0

q
2
-
1
0

q
3
-
1
0

q
4
-
1
0

q
1
-
1
1

q
2
-
1
1

q
3
-
1
1

q
4
-
1
1

q
1
-
1
2

q
2
-
1
2


q
3
-
1
2

q
4
-
1
2
(

)

CrowLh raLe (CuarLer-on-CuarLer )
CrowLh raLe (?ear-on-?ear)
6
!"#$% '()* + ,-./)(0
\@A!CM ALCEAAI
2010 2011e 2012p 2013f
8eal Cu ( change y-y) 6.8 3.9 3.1 3.3
Consumer prlce lndex ( change, perlod avg.) 9.2 18.6 9.2 8.0

CovernmenL revenues ( Cu) 29.6 27.7 26.1 23.4
CovernmenL expendlLures ( Cu) 32.7 30.9 31.3 29.2
llscal balance, omclal ( Cu) -0.7 -1.3 -3.7 -2.3
llscal balance, general ( Cu) -3.1 -3.2 -3.2 -3.8
ubllc secLor debL ( Cu) 34.0 33.4 33.7 33.3

1rade balance (bllllons uS$) -3.1 -0.3 6.4 3.8
CurrenL accounL balance (bllllons uS$) -4.3 0.2 3.7 1.9
lorelgn dlrecL lnvesLmenL (bllllons uS$) 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3
LxLernal debL (bllllons uS$) 43.4 30.1 34.7 39.8
lnLernauonal reserves, gross (monLhs of lmporLs) 1.8 1.3 2.3 ..

uomesuc credlL ( change y-y) 32.4 14.3 6.0 12.0
Memo: nomlnal Cu (bllllons uS$) 103.6 122.7 133.9 130.0
See Lhe reporL for deLall denluon and esumaLes.
7
!"#$% '()* + ,-./)(0
@DBIB CA ,DGCH>= G?AHA=F
Core lnauon ls sull very hlgh
Low level of forelgn exchange reserves by lnLernauonal
norms
remaLure loosenlng of scal and/or moneLary pollcy
prompung resurgence of lnauon
Worsenlng of asseL quallLy ln credlL lnsuLuuons, publlc
debL could rlse sharply lf conungenL llablllues ln banklng
secLor and SCLs are reallzed
uelayed and lnadequaLe lmplemenLauon of sLrucLural
reforms lncludlng Lhe resoluuon of bad debLs ln Lhe banks
and SCLs are dragglng down Lhe counLrys long-Lerm
growLh poLenual

8
!"#$% '()* + ,-./)(0
LHWG@BC>HWDH\ CMG DHJE>CDAH WFH>=D?B
AdmlnlsLrauve conLrols may lead Lo prlce sLablllLy ln Lhe shorL-run,
buL hlgher and volaule lnauon ln Lhe medlum-Lerm
( change ln Cl, year-on-year)
0
3
10
13
20
23
30
33
40
!
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-
1
0

A
p
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-
1
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C
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C
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2

B.</"#; 61.#. 3#-<.; (#. $(#9.$S %./.#0-).% 8S
0(#*./ O"#<.;
8everage
and
Lobacco
CloLhlng,
haLs,
fooLwear
Pousehold
goods and
appllances
CulLural
and
recreauon
0
3
10
13
20
23
30
33
40
!
a
n
-
1
0

A
p
r
-
1
0

!
u
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0

C
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p
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1
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u
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-
1
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C
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1
1

!
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1
2

A
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1
2

!
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-
1
2

C
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-
1
2

B.</"#; 61.#. /1.#. (#. ;Q$$ <");-%.#(8$.
(%0-)-;/#(Q:. 3#-<. <")/#"$;
Pouslng and
consLrucuon
maLerlals
1ransporL
Lducauon
Medlcal and
healLh care
arucles
9
!"#$% '()* + ,-./)(0
EA! EG,GE AJ JA@GD\H GY?M>H\G @GBG@,GB
vleLnams Level of lnLernauonal 8eserves from A 8eglonal
erspecuve
22.4
16.7
13.0
8.7
8.3
8.0
7.3
7.2 7.1
2.3
0
3
10
13
20
23
Chlna 1alwan hlllpplnes 1halland Malaysla Slngapore Pong kong lndonesla korea vleLnam
D)/.#)(Q")($ @.;.#:.; R-) 0")/1; "O -03"#/;U
21%
22%
28%
42%
32%
25%
54%
25%
40%
32%
14%
7%
26%
18%
25%
29%
30%
34%
46%
20%
29%
33%
12%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
Credit Total Liquidity
10
!"#$% '()* + ,-./)(0
@DBI AJ X@G=>CL@G EAABGHDH\ AJ XAED?F
( annual change)
11
!"#$% '()* + ,-./)(0
@GBC@L?CL@DH\ AJ CMG JDH>H?D>E BG?CA@
More clarlLy on Lhe slze of Lhe non-performlng loans
LxacL mechanlsm Lo resolve bad debLs, lf a publlc asseL managemenL
company ls Lo be creaLed, lssues for conslderauon lnclude:
o Sources of fundlng,
o AsseL Lransfer prlclng prlnclples,
o ApproprlaLe accounLablllLy and llablllLy of borrowers and so on.
new guldellnes wlLh sLrlcLer loan classlcauon and provlslonlng
requlremenLs
Consolldauon of Lhe banklng secLor lncludlng allowlng greaLer
ownershlp for forelgn banks
More lnvesLmenL on developlng rlsk managemenL sysLems, and
SLrengLhenlng regulaLory and supervlsory framework.
12
!"#$% '()* + ,-./)(0
@GBC@L?CL@DH\ AJ CMG BAGB
rlme MlnlsLer ueclslon 929 and ueclslon 704 have seL a number of
lmporLanL deadllnes:
o reparlng resLrucLurlng plan for all SLaLe Lconomlc Croups and Ceneral
Corporauons,
o lnluaung dlvesLmenL of non-core buslness,
o umng ln place a framework Lo monlLor operauonal and nanclal performance
of SCLs,
o Law on sLaLe (equlLy) caplLal lnvesLmenL,
o lmproved corporaLe governance and greaLer dlsclosure of lnformauon Lo Lhe
nauonal Assembly and Lhe publlc aL large
o SLrengLhenlng regulaLory and supervlsory framework.
no sllver bulleL: Lhere ls need for slmulLaneous and vlslble progress
on all fronLs.
13