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A change of mood in India
By: Inayatullah

Pakistan has been, for years, urging India to agree to hold talks for
addressing a number of issues hanging fire for a long time. These issues
include Jammu and Kashmir dispute which from the Pakistani point of view
has been the major hurdle in normalizing relations with India.
India, on the other hand, disregarding the blatant violation of human rights
in the occupied state, has been accusing Pakistan of exporting terrorism to
India. Mumbai killings and the recent incidents across the Line of Control are
cited to assert that Pakistan must first demonstrate its resolve to punish
those who were allegedly involved in planning and perpetrating the attack in
Mumbai. Pakistan is demonised for deliberately dragging its feet to bring the
culprits to book including Hafiz Saeed who is held as the mastermind behind
the dastardly shootings. The killing of the five Indian soldiers allegedly by
Pakistani military has been added to the heap of Indian grievances.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during the last many years has repeatedly
refused to visit Pakistan, turning down Pakistani invitations on the ground
that Islamabad had failed to convince New Delhi that it is serious about
stopping terrorist activities undertaken across the border, by non-state
actors. It is interesting to recall that during Vajpais premiership, India took
the initiative of inviting the then military dictator for talks in Agra, the same
General who had started the Kargil adventure.
Vajpais successor, the mild-mannered Manmohan Singh, however, has
behaved differently. Possible reasons for this somewhat contradictory
conduct has been his comparatively weak leadership and the fact that after
the strategic partnership agreements with USA and Indias enhanced
economic and political clout, New Delhi has been deliberately indulging in
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putting pressure on a correspondingly weaker and increasingly vulnerable
neighbor.

With Nawaz Sharif returning to power in Pakistan, hopes were raised for an
early restarting of talks between the two countries. There was a flurry of
contacts with special envoys meeting the Prime Ministers reviving
expectations of Mr. Manmohan Singh finally agreeing to come to Pakistan, or
at least show willingness to take up the interrupted dialogue process
between the two countries. The LOC incidents, however, were used by New
Delhi to smother such a move. Nawaz has been more than clean about the
need and the urgency of battering relations with India. In view, however, of
Indias intransigence he too, had to, lower expectations.
Of late, efforts have remained focused on ensuring that the two Prime
Ministers meet in New York on the sidelines of the September UN General
Assembly sessions. In this connection, Pakistans advisor on security and
foreign affairs has had meetings with the Indian foreign minister. It now
appears certain that the two heads of government shall meet on Sunday,
September 29.

Thursday last saw an attack on a police station and army post in Jammu in
which 12 persons including an Indian Lieutenant Col, were killed. Somewhat
surprisingly this time the reaction on the part of the Indian government and
most of the media, has been positive in the sense that this incident is
allowed to affect the scheduled talks between the Prime Ministers.
Describing the attacks as one more in a series of provocations and barbaric
actions by the enemies of peace, Manmohan Singh has made it clear that
his government would not let terrorists disrupt the dialogue process with
Pakistan. Such attacks he said would not deter us and will not succeed in
derailing our efforts to find a resolution to all problems through a process of
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dialogue. One may also note that BJP leaders including Modi have called for
holding off all talks with Pakistan until a more conducive environment is
guaranteed.

A part of the editorial of the Indian Express (of September 26) merits to be
reproduced to indicate the changing attitude in India: A peaceful
equilibrium with Pakistan has been one of Manmohan Singh's avowed
priorities,.. Yet, if past experience is a guide, the UPA's will can dissolve
dramatically in the face of a few belligerent opposition voices and angry TV
anchors. Several times in the last year alone, the prime minister set aside
his resolve after the opposition and parts of the media raised the pitch on
Pakistan. In August, after an ambush on Indian soldiers at the Line of
Control, the government did a miserable flip-flop on the nature of the
aggression and who was responsible. In January, after another border
incident, the government broke with the convention that the bilateral
dialogue was kept separate from such events, with the prime minister
himself saying that "business-as-usual" was untenable. Sports teams and
business delegations were sent back to Pakistan. Led by the same jingoistic
din, the UPA bequeathed a state funeral on Sarabjit Singh, even though he
had been convicted of espionage and terrorism there. This time, the PM
must not pander to the irresponsible chorus. He must be mindful of the
imprint he wants to leave on foreign policy, not the fleeting opinions of
prime-time TV. An excerpt from an article written in The Hindu (newspaper)
by a former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan Mr. Satyabrata Pal
reflects the mind of thinking and concerned Indians: It is important to
stress, therefore, that talking to Pakistan does not mean that we are soft on
it. Trying to make peace with Pakistan is not a sign of weakness.The
government that comes to power after the next election will do the same. It
too will try to make peace with Pakistan. If it does not, it will be abdicating
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its responsibility and charting a course that diverges so completely from its
predecessors that it is unlikely to get broad, political support. It is a given
that if the Prime Ministers agree to meet at the U.N. General Assembly,
there will be outrages at the LoC or in India, to torpedo the meeting. If the
Prime Ministers do agree on the next steps, the provocations will increase.
We can certainly urge the government of Pakistan to stop these, but should
know that, realistically, they currently cannot. We must nevertheless
persevere so that they eventually can.
It is good that Pakistan has officially and unequivocally condemned the
Jammu attacks.

Mention may, here, be made of a number of influential Indians from the
political and economic fields, these days, visiting Pakistan, one after the
other. One may refer to the participation of Mani Shanker Ayer and other
well-placed Indians in the Pakistani TV talk shows as well as visits of the
parliamentarians and businessmen to Islamabad and Lahore.
While welcoming the change of mood in India, Nawaz Sharif has to tread the
path carefully. Considering the euphoric statements he made soon after
taking over his office as well as Indian short-term and long-term plans and
designs, he would be well-advised to act prudently with a view to
safeguarding Pakistans national interests.