Book of Abstracts

ECCS 1 3
BOOK OF ABST RACT S

EUROPEAN CONF ERENCE ON COMPL EX SYST EMS
BARCEL ONA, 1 6 - 2 0 SEPT EMBER, 2 0 1 3
COMPL EX SYST EMS SOCI ET Y
published by complex systems society and complexitat.cat
http://www.eccs13.eu
http://www.complexssociety.eu
http://www.complexitat.cat
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First Edition, September 2013
CONFERENCE CHAIR
Albert Daz-Guilera, Universitat de Barcelona
PROGRAM CHAIR
Alex Arenas, Universitat Rovira i Virgili
ORGANIZING COMMITTEE CHAIR
lvaro Corral, Centre de Recerca Matemtica
ORGANIZING COMMITTEE
Jordi Duch, Roger Guimer, Marta Ibaes, Miquel Montero, Josep Perell, M. Angeles Serrano,
Jordi Soriano
STEERING COMMITTEE
Alessandro Vespignani (President of CSS), Jorge Lou (Chair of ECCS SC), Alain Barrat, Paul
Bourgine, Vittoria Colizza, Albert Daz-Guilera, Janusz Holyst, Kristian Lindgren, Maxi San
Miguel, Roberto Serra, Mina Teicher, Stefan Thurner, Constantino Tsallis
SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE
Eduardo Altmann, Panos Argyrakis, Ricardo Baeza-Yates, Marc Barthelemy, Albert Bastar-
das, Michael Batty, Vittoria Colizza, Ulises Corts, Ramon Ferrer i Cancho, Santo Fortunato,
Jordi Garcia Ojalvo, Carlos Geherson, Bruno Goncalves, Theo Geisel, Vicente Guallart, Giulia
Iori, Frank Jlicher, Haewoon Kwak, Jurgen Kurths, Stefano Leonardi, Fredrik Liljeros, Pietro
Lio, Fabrizio Lillo, Vittorio Loreto, Marco Madella, Susanna Manrubia, Jose Mendes, Yasmin
Merali Carmen Miguel, Esteban Moro, Romualdo Pastor-Satorras, Tobias Preis, Andrea Rapis-
arda, Xavier Rod, Francesc Sagus, Marta Sales-Pardo, Sebasti Sallent, Anxo Snchez, M.V.
Sanchez-Vives, Jos Mara Sancho, Maxi San Miguel, Jari Saramaki, Ricard V. Sol, Luc Steels,
Daniel Stouffer, John Symons, Bosiljka Tadic, Stefan Thurner, Antonio Turiel, Fernando Vega-
Redondo
Contents
Monday, September 16th 11
Plenary sessions - 9:10-10:40 11
Parallel sessions - 11:30-13:30 13
Foundations Of Complex Systems 1 13
Social Systems, Economics And Finance 1 16
Infrastructures, Planning And Environment 1 22
Biological Complexity 1 29
Information And Communication Technologies 1 36
Posters 48
Tuesday, September 17th 83
Posters 125
Friday, September 20th 163
Language, Linguistics And Cognition 1 168
Satellites 193
Wednesday, September 18th 193
Morning 193
Afternoon 195
All Day 196
Thursday, September 19th 205
Morning 205
Afternoon 206
All Day 208
Index of contributing participants 219
Monday, September 16 Tuesday, September 17 Wednesday, September 18 Thursday, September 19 Friday, September 20
9:00-9:10 Opening 9:00-9:50 Deco 8:00-20:00 Satellites 8:00-20:00 Satellites 9:00-9:50
9:10-10:00
9:50-10:40 9:50-10:30 Moreno
10:00-10:40
10:30-11:00 Coffee
10:40-11:30 Coffee + Posters 1 10:40-11:30 Coffee + Posters 2
11:00-13:00 Parallel sessions
FCS 11
11:30-13:30 Parallel sessions 11:30-13:30 Parallel sessions LLC 1
IPE 3
FCS1 SEF 4 SEF 8
SEF 1 SEF 5 FCS 12
FCS 2 FCS 6
IPE 1 IPE 2
SEF 2 FCS 7
BC 1 BC 3
13:00-13:50 Brown
13:30-15:00 Lunch + Posters 1 13:30-15:00 Lunch + Posters 2
13:50-15:00 Lunch
15:00-16:40 Parallel sessions 15:00-16:40 Parallel sessions 15:00-16:40 Parallel sessions
FCS 3 FCS 8 SEF 9
FCS 4 FCS 9 FCS 13
ICT 1 SEF 6 FCS 14
FCS 5 FCS 10 SEF 10
SEF 3 SEF 7 BC 5
BC 2 BC 4
16:40-17:10 Posters 1 16:40-17:10 Posters 2 16:40-17:00 Closing
17:10-17:50 17:10-17:50 Christiansen
17:50-18:40 17:50-18:40 Farmer
Amaral
Bascompte
Zapperi
Bogu
Mascolo
Cattuto
Monday, September 16th
Plenary sessions - 9:10-10:40
Chair: A. Vespignani
9:10 10:00
Auditorium
Keynote talk
Plant-animal mutualistic networks: the architecture of biodiver-
sity
Jordi Bascompte (CSIC)
The mutualistic interactions between plants and the animals that
pollinate them or disperse their seeds can form complex networks
involving hundreds of species. These coevolutionary networks are
highly heterogeneous, nested, and built upon weak and asymmetric
links among species. Such general architectural patterns increase
network robustness to random extinctions and maximize the num-
ber of coexisting species. Therefore, mutualistic networks can be
viewed as the architecture of biodiversity. However, because pylo-
genetically similar species tend to play similar roles in the network,
extinction events trigger non-random coextinction cascades. This
implies that taxonomic diversity is lost faster than expected if there
was no relationship between phylogeny and network structure. I
will conclude by exploring the trade-offs between a species relative
contribution to the above patterns of network architecture, and its
own survival probability.
10:00 10:40
Auditorium
Invited talk
Hyperbolic Geometry of Complex Networks
Marian Bogua (University of Barcelona)
The existence of underlying metric spaces shaping the topol-
ogy of complex networks is one of the most appealing explana-
tions of the widespread presence of strong clustering in real net-
works. From this perspective, clustering is the outcome of the tri-
angle inequality that holds in any metric space involving triads
of elements while interactions among nodes are still pairwise.
This fact has fundamental implications and practical applications
as it allows us to treat networks embedded in metric spaces with
12 eccs13 book of abstracts
analytical tools. Once we accept the hypothesis of the existence of
hidden metric spaces, the relevant question is: What geometry is
the most congruent with the topology of real complex networks?
Quite unexpectedly, the answer is hyperbolic geometry, the simplest
geometry able to generate simultaneously scale-free, small-world,
and clustered networks. While hyperbolic geometry may appear as
a very exotic one, we shall show that it may arise out of very simple
and intuitive mechanisms, both in static and growing models. In
this talk, we will review the progress made in this eld during the
last years and we will present empirical evidence of the existence of
metric spaces.
monday, september 16th 13
Parallel sessions - 11:30-13:30
Foundations Of Complex Systems 1
Chair: L. Gauvin
11:30 11:50
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Growing Multiplex Networks
Vincenzo Nicosia*, Ginestra Bianconi, Vito Latora and Marc Barthelemy
Multiplexes are graphs in which a set of N nodes can be con-
nected by means of links belonging to M different types. The char-
acterization of multiplexes is still in its infancy and some recent
works have focusedon the extension to multiplexes of classic net-
work metrics and models. Here we propose and study a generic
model of multiplex growth, in which the probability for a new node
to connect to existing nodes in each of the layers is a function of the
degree of other nodes at all layers. We study the effect of different
attachment rules on the structure of the resulting network and we
provide closed forms for both the degree distributions at each layer
and the inter-layer degree-degree correlations.
11:50 12:10
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Interdependent Dynamics Of Awareness And Epidemic Spread-
ing On Multiplex Networks
Clara Granell*, Sergio Gomez and Alex Arenas
Epidemic spreading in complex networks is a scientic eld of
study whose aim is to understand, explain and possibly predict the
behavior of epidemic processes. Here we present the study of two
interdependent dynamical processes corresponding to: epidemic
spreading and rumor spreading in multiplex networks. Previous
studies from complex networks theorists have addressed the issue
of epidemic spreading and spread of awareness considering both
processes taking place on the same substrate of interaction. Never-
theless it is clear that when using online social contacts, the spread-
ing of information does not have to correspond to the substrate of
social contacts throughout with the epidemics propagates. We an-
alyze numerical and by simulation the mathematical model of this
non-linear interaction providing clues for the displacement of the
critical point as well as for the nal incidence of the epidemics in
time where both time-scales of propagation are the same.
12:10 12:30
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Super-Diffusive Random Walkers In Multiplex Networks
Manlio De Domenico*, Albert Sole-Ribalta, Sergio Gomez and Alex
Arenas
Recent studies on dynamical processes running in multi-layered
complex networks, such as multiplex networks, have shown the
existence of super-diffusive phenomena under certain topological
congurations. Such studies focused particularly on continuous
diffusion dynamics within multiplex networks. Following this
intuition, we explore the possibility that these results also apply in
the case of discrete random walkers with independent probability
of jumping between nodes within the same layer and switching
between layers.
To this aim, we perform Monte Carlo simulations on several
different multiplex topologies together with several choices of
inter-layer switching probability to investigate under which cir-
cumstances super-diffusive phenomena emerge.
Finally, we propose new topological descriptors to assess the
dynamical properties of such processes on multiplex networks.
12:30 12:50
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Do Interconnected Networks Compete?
Javier M. Buldu*, David Papo and Jacobo Aguirre
Competition between systems, or nodes, that belong to a com-
plex network relies on several dynamical and topological aspects
such as their frequencies of oscillation, number of neighbors or
location in the structure of connections. Nevertheless, the fact
that real networks are usually embedded in networks of networks
(NoN) also has important consequences in competition processes.
In the current contribution, we present a new framework to ana-
lyze the competition between interconnected networks for available
resources as a struggle for network importance, measured via the
eigenvector centrality. Our analytical and numerical results yield
that different strategies must be played depending on the initial
network structures. In particular, competitor networks can strik-
ingly improve their outcome by selecting the adequate connector
nodes or by rearranging their internal topology. Due to the ex-
istence of optimal strategies, we are able to dene a competition
parameter that quanties the benet of the interconnection topol-
ogy in real networks. These results can be applied to a large num-
ber of dynamical processes in networks related with evolutionary,
spreading or diffusion processes.
12:50 13:10
Auditorium
Contributed talk
A General Approach Of Generating Multiplex Networks
Jie Zhou*, David Cellai and James Gleeson
Complex network is a useful tool to describe complex system.
Modern theory of complex network has reached a new stage where
the description of complex system is in more detail and accu-
racy. Very recently, complex network has been used to describe
multilevel system by the way of combining several layers of sub-
networks with one layer representing one sub-level system, and
such networks are called multiplex networks. For this new network
framework, research efforts have been paid on the study of its topo-
logical and dynamical properties. However, in these studies the
network structures are mostly simple or specic. To systemically
study multiplex network, a general multiplex network framework
is necessary. In this work, we introduce an algorithm by which we
could generate a multiplex network whose degree correlation func-
tions of all its layers, the nodal degree correlation function between
the layers, and the size of the resulting network are all tunable.
Moreover, we give an upper bound of the average degree of the re-
sulting network when the degree correlation functions introduced
above are given. We expect this method is powerful and could serve
as a good candidate of standard technique for multiplex network
generation.
13:10 13:30
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Stability Of Boolean Multiplexes
Emanuele Cozzo*, Alex Arenas and Yamir Moreno
Recently, multidimensional networks have been the subject of a
lot of attention. In general, multidimensional netowrks are systems
of interconnected networks. Here, we focus on the particular case in
which different networks share a fraction of their nodes. We refer to
this kind of systems as multiplexes, where each interaction channel
corresponds to one layer of the multiplex with its own networked
structure. Besides, we dene the multiplexity of a node as the prop-
erty of the node to belong to more than one layer.In this work, we
study the stability of a Boolean multiplex as a prototype of the
impact of multiplexity on a system ruled by non-linear dynam-
ics. Beside this, we think that Boolean multiplexes are of specic
interest for the understanding of biological processes such as cell
regulation, where components naturally interact via a multitude of
channels in parallel. We nd that multiplex topology signicantly
affect the stability of the system.
Social Systems, Economics And Finance 1
Chair: J. Ramasco
11:30 11:50
Room A1
Contributed talk
Mathematical Theory For Hit Phenomena As A Tool For Quan-
titative Estimation Of Social Responses Using Social Network
System
Akira Ishii*, Hidehiko Koguchi and Koki Uchiyama
A mathematical model for the hit phenomenon in entertainment
within a society is presented as a stochastic process of interactions
of human dynamics. The model uses only the time distribution
of advertisement budget as an input, and word-of-mouth (WOM)
represented by posts on social network systems is used as data to
compare with the calculated results. The unit of time is a day. The
calculations for the Japanese motion picture market based on to the
mathematical model agree very well with the actual residue distri-
bution in time. The model is applied also to weekly TV drama.
11:50 12:10
Room A1
Contributed talk
Climbing The Complexity Hill: An Operations Management Case
Study
Alberto Felice De Toni, Elena Pessot, Giovanni De Zan* and Fabio Can-
dussio
Grounding on complexity management literature, this paper
argues that the amount of internal manufacturing complexity is
linked to rm manufacturing performance through an inverted U-
shaped relationship. Performance increases as complexity increases,
till reaching a tipping point, after which an overburden of com-
plexity starts to sink improved performance. This article proposes a
framework for quantitatively measuring manufacturing complexity
and performance. Finally, the test on a case study on Alf Group
SpA, an Italian company in the furniture industry, provides a rst
evidence on the complexity curve shape.
12:10 12:30
Room A1
Contributed talk
Hypernetworks In Scalable Open Education
Jeffrey Johnson*, Cristian Jimenez-Romero and Alistair Willis
Our goal is certicated free high-quality mass education in
complex systems. Towards this the European Etoile project uses
crowd-sourced internet learning resources with scalable assessment.
Hypernetworks use hypersimplices to represent n-ary relations
as polyhedra with n vertices. This generalises edges in networks
and hypergraphs. Hypersimplices are connected through their
q-dimensional faces. These ideas are applied to data from auto-
matically marked multiple choice questions and moderated peer
marking. They can be used in learning analytics and personalised
education.
12:30 12:50
Room A1
Contributed talk
A New Metrics For Country Fitness And Product Complexity:
Measuring The Growth Potential And Technological Develop-
ment Of Countries
Matthieu Cristelli, Andrea Tacchella* and Luciano Pietronero
A series of recent works has shown that the competitiveness of
national productive systems and the complexity of products can
be measured starting from the export ows collected by UN. We
develop a novel statistical approach based on coupled non-linear
maps, whose xed point denes a new metrics for the country Fit-
ness and product Complexity.The two metrics allow to dene a
new kind of fundamental analysis of the hidden growth potential
of countries because it is possible to compare non-income based
factors of tness and complexity with measures of economic in-
tensity such as the countries GDP per capita. We show how this
comparison is informative on the growth potential and dynamics of
countries.
12:50 13:10
Room A1
Contributed talk
Weighted Networks With Given Strengths And Degrees: A Fast
And Unbiased Method
Rossana Mastrandrea*, Tiziano Squartini, Giorgio Fagiolo and Diego
Garlaschelli
Detecting relevant patterns in real networks, a fundamental
problem for many research elds, relies upon the possibility to
distinguish the properties explained by the presence of simple
constraints from more complex and nontrivial structural features.
For this reason, statistical ensembles of graphs with specied con-
straints, and otherwise completely random, have been introduced
and systematically used as a reference to identify non-random
patterns in a real network. Such ensembles serve also as powerful
models to study dynamical processes on networks displaying only
a set of desired properties, and allow to highlight the dynamical
effect of each property separately. The simplest and most important
ensembles specify only local constraints. For unweighted networks,
this amounts to specify the degree of each vertex, and results in
the so-called conguration model. In the weighted case, the corre-
sponding constraint is obtained by xing the strength of each ver-
tex.However, whereas the full weighed network is more informative
than its binary projection, in some cases the strengths have been
found to be surprisingly less informative than the degrees.This im-
plies that the complete set of local constraints to be controlled for
in weighted networks includes both strengths and degrees, a com-
putationally hard and potentially bias-prone problem.Here we pro-
pose a fast and unbiased method to enforce these constraints jointly
in real networks. Our entirely analytical approach is based on the
exact solution of the corresponding maximum-entropy problem,
and does not require to sample the network ensemble. Maximum-
entropy approaches are very powerful for incomplete information
problems, because they provide the least biased estimate possi-
ble on the given information; it is maximally noncommittal with
regard to missing information (Jaynes, 1967).On the other hand, a
network approach to the study of international trade has become
more and more relevant in recent years. The complex architecture
of the web of trade relationships allows one to investigate the ef-
fects of indirect-trade interactions among countries. Furthermore,
knowledge of the topological properties of the international trade
network (ITN), both in its binary and weighted case, can shed light
on issues such as growth, development patterns, globalization,
integration, etc.. This must be contrasted to standard empirical
analysis of international trade, which instead focus on country-
specic characteristics only, and thus neglect interdependencies
and indirect effects.The purely descriptive nature of most of these
studies prompts however two crucial and related questions: (i) to
what extent the observed network patterns are conveying relevant
information, or they can only be the sheer outcome of randomness?
(ii) how can we detect if a network approach to international trade
is really generating non-trivial information with respect to standard
empirical analysis of international trade?Therefore, in this paper
we extend the basic setup of Squartini-Garlaschelli method to a
mixed model in order to simultaneously employ as local con-
straints for the randomization both node degree and node strength
sequences and apply it to the World Trade Web. We employ the UN
COMTRADE database (1992-2002) for 162 countries at aggregate
and disaggregate level (97 commodities according to HS 1996). We
build undirected binary and weighted international-trade networks
for each product and year. In the binary networks, links exist only
if the correspondent trade ow is positive. In the weighted case,
links are weighted by total trade between any two countries. In a
nutshell, we nd a very close agreement between the observed and
the predicted higher-order topological properties and their tempo-
ral evolution both for the aggregated and disaggregated data. Our
theoretical and empirical results are irreducible to those obtained
enforcing only one of the two constraints, and have strong implica-
tions for the analysis of motifs and communities in networks.
13:10 13:30
Room A1
Contributed talk
Reputation And Impact In Academic Careers
Alexander Petersen, Santo Fortunato, Raj K. Pan, Kimmo Kaski, Orion
Penner, Massimo Riccaboni, H. Eugene Stanley and Fabio Pammolli
Reputation is an important social construct in science. How-
ever, the relation between this key signaling credential and career
growth remains poorly understood.Here we develop an original
framework for measuring how citation paths are shaped by two
distinct factors the scientic merit of each individual paper versus
the reputation of its authors within the scientic community. To
estimate the relative inuence of these two factors we perform a
longitudinal analysis of publication data for 450 leading scientists
from biology, physics, and mathematics. Our panel data approach
quanties the role of social ties, author reputation, and the citation
life cycle of individual papers. We uncover statistical regularities
in the coevolution of publications and citations, which we use as
benchmarks to test and validate a stochastic model for the cita-
tion dynamics governing a scientists publication portfolio. We
nd strong evidence of increasing returns to scale in the growth
of both publications and citations, reecting the amplifying role
of social processes. Against this background, we develop a quan-
titative framework able to decompose the main social components
of career growth. We use a large longitudinal career dataset cover-
ing 450 leading scientists comprising 83,693 papers and 7,577,084
citations tracked over 387,103 paper years. Here dataset [A] refers
to 100 top-cited physicists, [B] to another set of 100 highly prolic
physicists, [C] to 100 current assistant professors in physics, [D] to
100 top-cited cell biologists, and [E] to 50 top-cited pure mathemati-
cians. Our main results are to quantify the aggregate patterns of
careers, which in many ways are analogous to start-up companies.
As such, the socially embedded reputation and social tie processes
are crucial features underlying career growth. Specically, we mea-
sure the strength of social ties, nding extremely diverse strength
distributions within and across careers. As such, we quantify the
strong positive relation between the number of strong-tie coauthors
and the overall productivity of a scientist. Once establishing the
importance of reputation signaling through the social network, we
identify the life-cycle patterns of scientic discoveries, both within
careers and across elds. The main nding is to show that overall
there are common decay patterns which can be parameterized by
the half-life of a scientic discovery. This half-life distinguishes the
relatively common papers from the seminal papers, the latter hav-
ing nearly innite half-life. Combining these features, we develop
and test a model for career growth that incorporates our empirical
ndings. This model is able to reproduce several features of real
careers. Moreover, we use regression methods to establish that rep-
utation is a key driver in sustaining career growth. By separating
the citation dynamics into a paper impact effect and author reputa-
tion effect, we are able to show that papers written by authors with
large reputation receive an initial citation boost towards a citation
crossover threshold c_x. Above this crossover threshold, citations
are mostly accrued do to the paper impact (preferential attachment)
mechanism. However, to get there in the rst place, we show that
author reputation is key. Our results on the respective roles of au-
thor reputation and paper impact on citations unravel an important
mechanism contributing to the stratication of scientic commu-
nities. In particular, they provide a rationale for young scientists
being attracted to work in teams led by leaders in the scientic
community. As quantitative measures become increasingly common
in the evaluation of scientic careers, our results show that the use
of measures that do not account for reputation effects may paradox-
ically counteract the goal of sustaining talented and diligent young
academics.
Chair: C. Masoller
11:30 11:50
Room A2
Contributed talk
Exchange Of Energy And Information In Multidimensional
Chaotic Hamiltonian Systems
Chris Antonopoulos*, Ezequiel Bianco Martinez and Murilo Da Silva
Baptista
In this talk I will discuss about novel, recently obtained, results
that relate information, energy exchange and sensibility to initial
conditions on chaotic multidimensional Hamiltonian systems. Con-
sidering the degrees of freedom of the Hamiltonian as nodes of
a complex dynamical network, I will discuss about the relation
among the Mutual Information Rate (MIR), the Kolmogorov - Sinai
entropy (KS), the maximal Lyapunov exponent, and signicant
upper bounds of the MIR calculated in this network with these
same quantities dened on bi-dimensional projections, as the en-
ergy of the system increases. I will also present some new formulae
that connect information with energy. They show that the transfer
of kinetic energy per time unit is an exponential function of the
largest Lyapunov exponent of the network. Therefore, energy is
transferred along the most unstable direction of the Hamiltonian
system and the amount transferred is larger the more chaotic the
system is. Another relevant output of our results is that this com-
plicate relationship among these many dynamical invariants can be
established on bi-dimensional projections like for example on the
kinetic versus potential plane. However, it governs the behavior of
the higher dimensional Hamiltonian system.
11:50 12:10
Room A2
Contributed talk
Canards From ChuaS Circuit
Jean-Marc Ginoux*, Jaume Llibre and Leon Chua
At rst, the aim of this work is to extend Benots theorem for
the generic existence of canards solutions in singularly perturbed
dynamical systems of dimension three with one fast variable to
those of dimension four. Then, it is established that this result can
be found according to the Flow Curvature Method. Applications
to Chuas cubic model of dimension three and four enables to state
existence of canards solutions in such systems.
12:10 12:30
Room A2
Contributed talk
Using Temporal Correlations In The Visualization Of Aggregate
Representations Of Dynamic Networks
Ingo Scholtes*
Complex systems occurring in various disciplines are increas-
ingly being analyzed and modeled in terms of networks. When
exploring the structure and function of such complex systems, net-
work visualization has become a standard technique. Many of the
systems being considered are inherently dynamic and in recent
years data on their dynamics are increasingly becoming available
in the form of dynamic networks. Nevertheless, the visual explo-
ration of complex networks is typically based on a time-aggregated
representation in which the underlying sequence of time-varying
interactions are aggregated into a static network. It is clear that -
when aggregating time-stamped interactions into a static network
- important information, e.g. about temporal correlations or the
ordering of edges is lost. In this talk, we propose a simple mecha-
nism that can be used to include temporal correlations present in
time-stamped network data in the force-directed layout of time-
aggregated networks. We validate our methodology by showing
that the resulting visualizations reveal important aspects like e.g.
community structures of the dynamics which - although present in
empirical data sets - a) are not represented in static, aggregate net-
works and b) cannot easily be seen even in dynamic visualizations
of temporal networks.
12:30 12:50
Room A2
Contributed talk
Noise, Synchrony, And Correlations At The Edge Of Chaos
Alessandro Pluchino*, Andrea Rapisarda and Constantino Tsallis
We study the effect of a weak random additive noise in a linear
chain of N locally coupled logistic maps at the edge of chaos. Maps
tend to synchronize for a strong enough coupling, but if a weak
noise is added, very intermittent uctuations in the returns time se-
ries are observed. This intermittency tends to disappear when noise
is increased. Considering the probability distribution functions
(pdfs) of the returns, we observe the emergence of fat tails which
can be satisfactorily reproduced by q-Gaussians curves typical of
nonextensive statistical mechanics. The interoccurrence times of
these extreme events are also studied in detail. Similarities with the
recent analysis of nancial data are also discussed.
12:50 13:10
Room A2
Contributed talk
Sparse Model From Time Series
Chetan Nichkawde*
An approach to obtaining a parsimonious model from time se-
ries is proposed.
13:10 13:30
Room A2
Contributed talk
Spiral Wave Chimeras In Complex-Oscillatory And Chaotic Sys-
tems
Joern Davidsen*, Chad Gu and Ghislain St-Yves
We demonstrate for the rst time that spiral wave chimeras
spiral waves with spatially extended unsynchronzied cores can
exist in complex-oscillatory and even locally chaotic homogeneous
systems under nonlocal coupling. Using ideas from phase syn-
chronization, we show in particular that the unsynchronized cores
exhibit a distribution of different frequencies, thus, generalizing
the main concept of chimera states beyond simple oscillatory sys-
tems. In contrast to simple oscillatory systems, we nd that spiral
wave chimeras in complex-oscillatory and locally chaotic systems
are characterized by the presence of synchronization defect lines
(SDLs), along which the dynamics follows a periodic behavior
different from the bulk. While this is similar to the case of local
coupling, the type of the prevailing SDLs is very different.
Infrastructures, Planning And Environment 1
Chair: S. Lozano
11:30 11:50
Room A3
Contributed talk
Division Of The Energy Market Into Zones In Variable Weather
Conditions Using Locational Marginal Prices
Karol Wawrzyniak, Grzegorz Ory nczak, Micha Kos, Aneta Goska and
Marcin Jakubek
Adopting a zonal structure of electricity market requires speci-
cation of zones borders. One of the approachesto identify zones
is based on clustering of Locational Marginal Prices (LMP). The
purpose of the paper is twofold: (i) we extend the LMP method-
ology by taking into account variable weather conditions and (ii)
we point out some weaknesses of the method and suggest their
potential solutions. The offered extension comprises simulations
based on the Optimal Power Flow (OPF) algorithm and twofold
clustering method. First, LMP are calculated by OPF for each of
scenario representing different weather conditions. Second, hier-
archical clustering based on Wards minimum variance criterion
is used on each realization of the prices separately. Then, another
clustering method, i.e. consensus clustering, is used to aggregate
the results from all simulations and to nd the global division into
zones. The offered method of aggregation is not limited only to
LMP methodology and is universal.
11:50 12:10
Room A3
Contributed talk
Maintaining Stable Distribution In Evolving Supply-Demand
Networks
Nicolas Rubido*, Celso Grebogi and Murilo Baptista
The ability to design a transport network such that commodi-
ties are brought from suppliers to consumers in a steady (constant
ow distribution), optimal (minimum transport costs), and stable
way (the load distribution avoids over-loads robustly under attacks,
topology changes, or changes in the locations of suppliers and con-
sumers) is of great importance for nowadays distribution systems.
In this work, we provide general analytic values (plus manage-
able margins) for the edges capacities that a conservative optimal
supply-demand network should have in order to maintain a steady
stable distribution for evolving topologies (nodes and edges which
are added or removed), descentralising sources (switching from
hub sources or sinks to distributed smaller sources or sinks), and
intermittent suppliers-consumers characteristics (changing the loca-
tion of the suppliers and consumers within the network). We anal-
yse these conditions and the impact of our results on the current
UK power-grid structure and in numerically generated evolving
well-known network topologies.
12:10 12:30
Room A3
Contributed talk
Human Spatial Organization And The Emergence Of Urban Cen-
ters
Markus Schlapfer, Michael Szell* and Carlo Ratti
Concentration of humans in cities is a fundamental development
of modern society, but the processes behind spatial organization
of individuals are largely unknown. Using ows of millions of
people, here we quantify the extent of spatial correlations in human
mobility and uncover its vital importance for understanding the
structure of cities. Different activity centers emerge with strong
regularities depending on the frequencies and distances of visiting
individuals, bridging the gap between monocentric and polycentric
theories of human geography. Clustering of high-activity regions is
signicantly stronger than in a null model with identical movement
patterns but where collective spatial correlations are suppressed,
revealing a deep-rooted mechanism in the spatial organization of
humans.
12:30 12:50
Room A3
Contributed talk
Reconstructing The Metabolic Network Of The Humber Region
Industrial Ecosystem
Alexandra Penn*, Paul Jensen, Amy Woodward, Lauren Basson, Frank
Schiller and Angela Druckman
The network structure of industrial ecosystems strongly in-
uences the impact of policy, however connection data is often
commercially sensitive or publically unavailable and system stake-
holders difcult to access. We present a novel method to deter-
mine the characteristic network structure of industrial systems
with a case study in the Humber Estuary (UK). The text of semi-
structured interviews with local industrialists and policy makers
was coded to extract information on nodes, links and ows for the
metabolic network. The incomplete graph produced was elabo-
rated with industry-specic network motifs based on characteristic
input/output and connection patterns drawn from literature re-
view and site-specic research. We present our preliminary result:
a metabolic network portrait of the Humber region. Simple quan-
titative analysis of the results illustrates some of the characteristic
metabolic structure of the region.
12:50 13:10
Room A3
Contributed talk
Water-Controlled Wealth Of Nations: Using Water Footprints To
Estimate Nations Carrying Capacities And Demographic Sustain-
ability
Samir Suweis, Andrea Rinaldo, Amos Maritan and Paolo DOdorico
Population growth is in general constrained by food produc-
tion, which in turn depends on the access to water resources. At
a country level, some populations use more water than they con-
trol because of their ability to import food and the virtual water
required for its production. Here, we investigate the dependence
of demographic growth on available water resources for exporting
and importing nations. By quantifying the carrying capacity of na-
tions based on calculations of the virtual water available through
the food trade network, we point to the existence of a global water
unbalance. We suggest that current export rates will not be main-
tained and consequently we question the long-run sustainability of
the food trade system as a whole. Water rich regions are likely to
soon reduce the amount of virtual water they export, thus leaving
import-dependent regions without enough water to sustain their
populations. We also investigate the potential impact of possible
scenarios that might mitigate these effects through (1) cooperative
interactions among nations whereby water rich countries main-
tain a tiny fraction of their food production available for export;
(2) changes in consumption patterns; and (3) a positive feedback
between demographic growth and technological innovations. We
nd that these strategies may indeed reduce the vulnerability of
water-controlled societies.
13:10 13:30
Room A3
Contributed talk
Linear Space Of Power Transfer Distribution Factors - A New
Way To Perform A Zonal Division Of An Electrical Grid
Karol Wawrzyniak, Micha Kos, Grzegorz Ory nczak and Marcin Jakubek
In order to achieve an optimal division of electricity market into
zones we extend the method known as Congestion Contribution
Identication (CCI). As the result, we introduce a new approach
using Power Transfer Distribution Factors (PTDF) as coordinates
in a multidimensional linear space. The properties of PTDF-space
are discussed in light of the attributes of a potentially congestible
electrical grid. Zonal attribution of grids nodes is obtained by clus-
tering the corresponding points in PTDF-space. We suggest the
criterion of assessment which allows us to compare the clustering
methods - power ows on congested lines are expected to be pos-
sibly insensitive for Generation Shift Key variation. Thereafter we
apply new technique by implementing two algorithms that use the
concept of PTDF-space andperform an efcient division of a grid.
Chair: G. Caldarelli
11:30 11:50
Room A4
Contributed talk
Modeling Endogenous Preferences For Heterogeneous Agents:
Adressing The Hard Part
David Chavalarias* and Erasmo Batta
"Technically, the issue can be posed as one of asking how most
productively to model agent types by extending game theory
so that types are an integral part of its predictive content, rather
than merely imported as an ex-post" technical explanation of ex-
perimental results." This statement formulated in Vernon L. Smiths
Nobel Prize lecture points toward a weakness of social systems
modelling which is hardly taken into account. "It is easy to go
from types (traditionally utility or beliefs about states) to game
theoretic choice ; the hard part is to relate types to character-
istics of the individuals memory-sensory system." In this paper,
we deal with this "hard part", demonstrating how the framework
of metamimetic games can answer Smiths question, making it
possible to endogenize a wide range of agents traits without the
classical assumption of ad hoc tness function (rooted into biology
or economics). Taking a spatial prisoners dilemma as case study,
we demonstrate that it is possible to address this hard part and
propose a general methods for agents trait endogeneization in the
framework of metamimetic games, like for example time constants
in strategical decisions. This produces more constrained models
with less parameters and consequently stronger predictions in the
popperian sense of the term. We moreover exhibit a state function
which can qualify the evolution of an articial social system, even
when it is composed by heterogeneous agents with interpersonally
not comparable utilities. This function, called Psi, is related to the
satisfaction of agents and could easily be interpreted as a compo-
nent of the population welfare. It reveals clear variations according
to the parameters of the model. Our case study on an application
to the spatial prisoners dilemma game, reveals several stylized
facts which can be (and sometime has already been) measured by
studies in psychology, sociology or economy. They are as many
qualitatively measurable manifestations of the predictions on types
distribution: - Cooperation is a robust phenomena,- Social attractor
are most of the time heterogeneous with clear patterns with respect
to agents type distribution- Agents tends to prioritize the renewal
of parts of their strategy in function of their proximity to action
(behaviours are updated more frequently than rules of behaviour);-
The strength of a social dilemma changes types distribution in pop-
ulation and favours payoffs-based types,- Payoffs-based types are
the less satised agents and the population "well-being" measured
in terms of averaged global satisfaction decreases as the strength of
the dilemma increases.
11:50 12:10
Room A4
Contributed talk
Fiscal Federalism And Regressive Taxation: An Agent Based
Model Of Exit And Voice
Debra Hevenstone* and Ben Jann
Fiscal federalism is an oft- proposed solution to the problem
of efciently providing public goods, although it is also hypothe-
sized to generate undesirable side-effects such as segregation and
inequality. A simulation of scal federalism, integrating empiri-
cal data on income and taxes, is presented. The simulation illus-
trates that two simple mechanisms: exit (residential mobility) and
voice (voting), are sufcient explanations for multiple phenomenon
regularly seen under scal federalism, such as lower public ex-
penditures, economic segregation, and less progressive or even
regressive taxation. Experiments testing different inter-jurisdictional
grant systems are run, illustrating when scal federalism offers
Pareto-optimal policies. Some policy designs are shown to inadver-
tently generate dystopias with extreme economic segregation, the
under-provision of public goods among the poor, and the extreme
extraction of resources from the wealthy.
12:10 12:30
Room A4
Contributed talk
Diffusion Of Innovation Within An Agent-Based Model
Piotr Przybyla, Katarzyna Weron and Rafal Weron
We modify a two-dimensional variant of a two-state non-linear
voter model and apply it to understand how new ideas, products
or behaviors spread throughout the society in time. In particular,
we want to nd answers to two important questions in the eld
of diffusion of innovation: Why does the diffusion of innovation take
sometimes so long? and Why does it fail so often? Because these kind
of questions cannot be answered within classical aggregate diffu-
sion models, like the Bass model, we use an agent-based modeling
approach.
12:30 12:50
Room A4
Contributed talk
Turning Green: Agent-Based Modeling Of The Adoption Of
Dynamic Electricity Tariffs
Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska, Katarzyna Maciejowska, Karol Suszczy nski,
Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron and Rafa Weron
Using an agent-based modeling approach and a Monte Carlo
simulation scheme, we show how personal attributes, like confor-
mity or indifference, impact the opinions of individual electricity
consumers regarding switching to innovative dynamic tariff pro-
grams. We also examine the inuence of advertising, discomfort of
usage and the expectations of nancial savings on opinion dynam-
ics. We show the difference between the opinions and the decisions
of the electricity consumers. In our research we present that due to
the high indifference level in todays retail electricity markets, the
agent opinions are very unstable and change frequently. This may
hamper the decision process, because consumers typically need
some sense of certainty before they take any actions.
Our main nding is that currently the adoption of dynamic elec-
tricity tariffs is virtually impossible due to the high level of indiffer-
ence in todays societies. However, if in the future indifference level
is reduced, e.g., through educational programs that would make
the customers more engaged in the topic, factors like tariff pricing
schemes and intensity of advertising will became the focal point.
12:50 13:10
Room A4
Contributed talk
Agent-Based Models With Rank-Based Rules
Piotr Slowinski*
We analyse agent-based models (ABMs) with rules derived from
different rank-based models of individual-level judgment and de-
cision making. Rank-based models of decision-making are well
motivated theoretically and are supported by growing body of
experimental evidence. We use ABMs to study population-level
phenomena emerging from individual-level rank-based rules.
Furthermore, we show that rank-based rules are combination of
migration and opinion dynamics ABMs, and can be viewed as a
generalization of probabilistic cellular automata with majority rules.
13:10 13:30
Room A4
Contributed talk
Reconciling Long-Term Cultural Diversity And Short-Term Col-
lective Social Behavior
Luca Valori, Francesco Picciolo, Agnes Allansdottir and Diego Gar-
laschelli
An outstanding open problem is whether collective social phe-
nomena occurring over short timescales can systematically reduce
cultural heterogeneity in the long run, and whether ofine and
online human interactions contribute differently to the process.
Theoretical models suggest that short-term collective behavior and
long-term cultural diversity are mutually excluding, since they
require very different levels of social inuence. The latter jointly
depends on two factors: the topology of the underlying social net-
work and the overlap between individuals in multidimensional
cultural space. However, while the empirical properties of social
networks are intensively studied, little is known about the large-
scale organization of real societies in cultural space, so that random
input specications are necessarily used in models. Here we use a
large dataset to perform a high-dimensional analysis of the scien-
tic beliefs of thousands of Europeans. We nd that inter-opinion
correlations determine a nontrivial ultrametric hierarchy of individ-
uals in cultural space. When empirical data are used as inputs in
models, ultrametricity has strong and counterintuitive effects. On
short timescales, it facilitates a symmetry-breaking phase transition
triggering coordinated social behavior. On long timescales, it sup-
presses cultural convergence by restricting it within disjoint groups.
Moreover, ultrametricity implies that these results are surprisingly
robust to modications of the dynamical rules considered. Thus
the empirical distribution of individuals in cultural space appears
to systematically optimize the coexistence of short-term collective
behavior and long-term cultural diversity, which can be realized
simultaneously for the same moderate level of mutual inuence in
a diverse range of online and ofine settings.
Biological Complexity 1
Chair: M. Zanin
11:30 11:50
Room S9
Contributed talk
Dynamics Of Genetic And Epigenetic Events In A Network-Based
Framework For Colon Cancer Initiation
Irina - Afrodita Roznovat* and Heather J. Ruskin
Cancer is a complex process generated by abnormal genetic and
epigenetic interdependent modications in cellular mechanisms
that exhibit different dynamics. These alterations may be different
or less immediately adverse from one person to another, as various
risk factors are cumulative and variable in effect. While, presence
of a risk factor does not necessarily mean that an individual will
develop a tumour, it is important to know how aggregate risk can
impact on occurrence of malignancies.
In this paper, we consider the inuence of ageing and gender on
the aberrant genetic and epigenetic changes observed at different
stages of malignancy. We use a network-based model, developed
as a simplied prototype of colorectal cancer dynamics, in order
to enhance information on the interdependencies between micro-
molecular events in cancer initiation and progression. Given its
crucial role in tumour development, DNA methylation is the main
feature of the colorectal cancer model to date. The focus here is
on the dynamics of DNA methylation level updates under given
conditions in malignant systems.
11:50 12:10
Room S9
Contributed talk
Optimality Of Moore Neighborhoods In Protein Contact Maps
Susan Khor*
A protein contact map is a binary symmetric adjacency matrix
capturing the distance relationship between atoms of a protein.
Each cell (i, j) of a protein contact map states whether the atoms
(nodes) i and j are within some Euclidean distance from each other.
We examined the radius one Moore neighborhood surrounding
each cell (i, j) where j > (i + 2) in complete protein contact maps
by mutating them one at a time. We found that the particular
conguration of a neighborhood is generally (97%) optimal in
the sense that no other conguration could maintain or improve
upon existing local and global efciencies of the nodes residing in
a neighborhood. Local efciency of a node is directly related to its
clustering measure. Global efciency of a node is inversely related
to its distance to other nodes in the network. This feature of the
Moore neighborhood in complete protein contact maps may explain
how protein residue networks are able to form long-range links to
reduce average path length while maintaining a high level of clus-
tering throughout the process of small-world formation, and could
suggest new approaches to protein contact map prediction. Effec-
tively, the problem of protein contact map prediction is transformed
to one of maximizing the number of optimal neighborhoods. By
comparison, Moore neighborhoods in protein contact maps with
randomized long-range links are less optimal.
12:10 12:30
Room S9
Contributed talk
Complexity In Healthcare: Using Non-Linear Models For Com-
plex Interventions
Martine Barons*, Frances Grifths, Nick Parsons and Margaret Thoro-
good
Two complex interventions were investigated with ANNs to
capture non-linearity: A complex intervention for back pain using
a cognitive behavioural approach was analysed using the items
that measure the cognitive domain in order to model the patient
outcome. A latent class and logistic regression approach is com-
pared to results from an articial neural network. A cardiovascular
rehabilitation observational study included all patients of every
diagnosis who were referred to a programme. Standard survival
analysis revealed that the predictors of long-term survival differ
from the predictors of short-term survival. This was compared to
modelling survival using an articial neural network.
12:30 12:50
Room S9
Contributed talk
Information Capacity Of Genomes Reects The Taxonomy Of
The Bearers
Michael Sadovsky*
The relation between the clusterization based on information ca-
pacity gures of bacterial genomes, and the taxonomy composition
of those clusters was studied. Basically, a genus is an issue related
to the information capacity,not a species. For the set of 669 bacterial
genomes very good correlation between the clusterization and the
taxonomy has been found. This correlation is stable observed for
the elastic mapping carried out in three different ranges of informa-
tion capacity.
12:50 13:10
Room S9
Contributed talk
A Comprehensive Systems Level Model To Predict Microbial
Growth
Francesco Alessandro Massucci, Roger Guimera and Marta Sales-Pardo
High throughput techniques have allowed in recent years to
construct genomewide scale metabolic networks of many living
organisms. Unfortunately, there is no approach that is able to ex-
ploit such a detailed information to make general predictions on
metabolic activity that can be easily extended to different growing
conditions or to a different organism.
In this talk we propose a simple systemslevel phenomenological
model of metabolism that predicts the biomass production of an
organism. Our method relies on a very small set of parameters that
analytically link nutrient availability to growth. We nd that our
model is in very good agreement with Flux Balance Analysis results
when simulating microbial growth on random media.
13:10 13:30
Room S9
Contributed talk
Indices Of Behavioral Complexity Over Repeated Trials In A
Climbing Task: Evaluating Mechanisms Underpinning Emer-
gence Of Skilled Performance
Dominic Orth*, Keith Davids, Romain Herault and Ludovic Seifert
Faced with a novel route, experienced climbers relate their action
capabilities relative to the physical properties of surface handholds
to determine and regulate behavioral opportunities for vertical as-
cent. As fatigue develops during performance, actions for achieving
traversal are in many respects driven by efciency, such as mini-
mizing exploration and reducing uctuations in the centre of mass.
In addition to these concerns, inexperienced climbers must also
learn to overcome existing behavioral tendencies in order to effec-
tively determine the action possibilities that physical properties in
the environment facilitate. Such processes have previously been
associated with a progressive reduction in both global entropy and
exploration over repeated trials. In a novel approach, we examined
entropy of grasping patterns in series of three (GPE-3). As pre-
dicted exploratory behavior reduced however, it was surprising to
nd that GPE-3 remained high. Furthermore, at crux points (dif-
cult parts of the climb), grasping behaviors were mixed (no single
grasping action was used signicantly more than any other). Given
also that GPE-3 typically peaked at the highest crux point from the
ground (when fatigue becomes an important constraint) suggests
that under specic arrangements of constraints, behavior does not
become progressively more predictable in spite of repeated trials.
Instead, at crux points, climbers can exploit inherent neurobiologi-
cal degeneracy by randomly adopting functional patterns of grasp-
ing behaviors and in fact, may be exhibiting a meta-stable regime.
We detail a number of indices for quantifying the emergence of this
form of dynamic performance stability from trial-to-trial. Future
work is needed to undertake learning scale analyses to test relation-
ships between constraints, dynamic stability and the acquisition of
complex, creative and functional skills.
Chair: V. Nicosia
15:00 15:20
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Statistical Mechanics Of Multi-Link Networks
Oleguer Sagarra, Conrad J. Perez-Vicente and Albert Diaz-Guilera
Although the binary topology of complex networks is well un-
derstood, weighted networks remain a source of debate. Such enti-
ties allow two different treatments in terms of the distinguishably
of its edges with profound implications on their associated statis-
tics. In this work we dene multi-link networks as graphs where
multiple (distinguishable) connections are considered. A statistical
mechanics framework is laid out for its study, different ensembles
are proposed and their equivalence in an appropriately dened
thermodynamic limit is proved under a set of general constraints
(including those depending both on the number of multi-links per
link and their binary projection).
15:20 15:40
Auditorium
Contributed talk
On The Diffusion Dynamics Over Generic Multiplex Networks
Albert Sole*, Manlio De Domenico, Sergio Gomez and Alexandre Arenas
One of the more challenging tasks in the understanding of dy-
namical properties of models on top of complex networks is to
capture the precise role of multiplex topologies. Here, we present a
general framework to model multiplex networks. Using this frame-
work, we perform an asymptotic analysis of the Laplacian matrix
that allow us to derive analytical expressions for the eigenvalues.
We apply the obtained results to the analysis of diffusion and syn-
chronization processes.
15:40 16:00
Auditorium
Contributed talk
The Choices Of One And The Many
Rudolf Hanel* and Stefan Thurner
What happens in systems where many agents apply admissible
strategies to solve an identical problem and how does this deter-
mine the observable statistics of the superposition of the many
strategies these agents apply?
Considering a microcanonical approach on a phase-space of
probabilities allows to construct equivalent maximum entropy prin-
ciples from prior distributions of strategies using Legendre trans-
formations. The resulting extremal principles are compatible with
three of a set of four information theoretic axioms that determine
Shannon Entropy uniquely.
We show that if the 4th axiom is broken the existence of general-
ized Entropy functionals is still guaranteed however not uniquely.
Complex social systems with many agents applying a spectrum
of different strategies to accomplish equivalent tasks exemplify this
class of systems.
16:00 16:20
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Equilibria Of Binary-State Dynamics On Complex Networks
Peter Fennell* and James Gleeson
Nodes in binary-state networks can be in either of two states,
such as susceptible/infected, active/inactive and so on. Nodes
change states dynamically over time as they are affected by the
states of other members of the population. Here we examine the
state of the network at long-time equilibrium. There are possibilities
of one or multiple equilibria. Nodes in the equilibrium network
may all occupy the same state, or differ. We use a highly accu-
rate model of binary-state dynamics to analytically determine the
number of equilibria and the values they take for a broad range of
dynamics.
16:20 16:40
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Transcriptional Control In Mycobacterium Tuberculosis: A Net-
work Perspective
Joaquin Sanz and Yamir Moreno
Transcriptional regulatory networks (TRNs) constitute one of
the most important pieces of the cellular machinery of phenotypic
control and adaptation. Under the perspectives of network science
and Systems Biology, the analysis of these complex systems beyond
the context of model organisms constitutes a promising eld which
still remains mainly unexplored. In this contribution, we present a
series of results derived from the assembling and further analysis of
the TRN of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a bacterial obligate para-
site responsible of a disease still causing 1.4 million deaths per year
worldwide. The incorporation of this pathogen to the reduced set
of prokaryotic organisms whose TRNs have been globally charac-
terized allows us to revise some classical results in network science,
like the existence of two different superfammilies of biological net-
works according to their motifs statistics; as well as to understand
how the unavoidable incompleteness of the data affects some other
topological features of these systems, like the modular structure.
But the potentiallity of the network approach when applied in this
context can also constitute a helpful tool for tuberculosis research
itself. In this line, we show how an adequate knowledge of the TRN
help us to detect false positives in our network and/or to identify
missing regulations which are not yet experimentally detected, by
extending the method previously developed by Guimer and Sales
Pardo to directed networks. In addition, the analysis of the dynami-
cal back-bone of the network yields the identication of an strongly
connected component at the top of the networks hierarchy, which
had been partly identied as a regulatory device responsible of the
physiological response of the pathogen to several biological stresses
which are key signals in the cell cycle regulation of the bacterium,
such as oxidative stress, iron availability, hypoxia and cell wall
damage, among others.
Chair: C. Miguel
15:00 15:20
Room A1
Contributed talk
Carnot Cycle For A Nonextensive System
Evaldo Curado, Andre Souza, Fernando Nobre* and Roberto Andrade
A type of thermodynamical formalism is introduced for a system
of interacting particles under overdamped motion, in the absence
of thermal noise (T = 0). Heat and work terms (Q and W) are
dened and, using the concept of an effective temperature con-
jugated to a generalized entropy s, the rst law in its innitesimal
form is established. These denitions allow the construction of
Carnot cycle, whose efciency is shown to be = 1 (_2/_1),
where _1 and _2 are the effective temperatures of the two isother-
mal transformations, with _1 > _2. These results support a
generalized thermodynamical framework for this physical system.
15:20 15:40
Room A1
Contributed talk
Long Distance Reactive Dynamics: Effective Mean Field Theory
And Kinetic Monte Carlo Simulations
Evangelia Panagakou, Georgios Boulougouris and Astero Provata
The model under study is a fourth order nonlinear model, the
Lattice Limit Cycle (LLC) model, which describes the interactions
among three competing species. The method we use to simulate
the systems behavior is the Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) method.
In order to understand the way in which the stochasticity of the
KMC method affects the systems steady state position, we calculate
a posteriori effective reaction rates. We nd that if these effective
parameters replace the original ones in the Mean Field (MF) model,
it is possible to describe the average properties of the steady state.
The same result is valid when we introduce a long distance reactive
coupling.
15:40 16:00
Room A1
Contributed talk
Combinatorial Meaning Of The Low-Temperature Series Expan-
sionS Coefcients For The Two-Dimensional Ising Model
Grzegorz Siudem* and Agata Fronczak
Low-temperature series expansion for the two-dimensional Ising
model was found by Beale in 1995, although he did not present
constructive method for his approximation - it was only brilliant
calculation in Mathematica. With approximation to lattice models
proposed recently by Agata Fronczak and Piotr Fronczak we can
obtain Beales main results and, which is more interesting, due to
the Bell polynomials we can interpret coefcients of the low-series
expansion of the two-dimensional Ising model in the combinatorial
way. We suppose that this combinatorial approach, connected to the
Bell polynomials may be useful tool in the statistical physics of the
lattices models.
16:00 16:20
Room A1
Contributed talk
Resilience Of Nonstationary Markov Chains In Dynamic Envi-
ronments
Manuela Bujorianu* and Robert MacKay
In this paper, we study robustness problems of inhomogeneous
Markov chains in dynamic environments. First, we dene a new
concept of quasi-stationary distribution for nonstationary Markov
chains as a sequence of probability distributions, which represents a
dynamical system on a suitable state space. Then, we study the ro-
bustness of this quasi- stationary distribution under the assumption
of geometric ergodicity of the underlying Markov chain.
16:20 16:40
Room A1
Contributed talk
A Bivariate Measure Of Unique Information
Nils Bertschinger*, Johannes Rauh, Eckehard Olbrich, Juergen Jost and
Nihat Ay
Complex systems consist of interacting elements exchanging
information. Therefore in the last years several proposals were
made how information provided by a set of random variables about
another one could be decomposed in the information that they all
share, the information that they provide exclusively - the unique
information- and the information that they only provide together,
but not separately, the complementary information.
The main problem is to dene measures for these different con-
tributions simultaneously and consistently in a way that yields
intuitively plausible values in corner cases.
Here we propose a measure for unique information that starts
from the idea that an agent should have unique information if
and only if there exists a decision problem that allows the agent to
perform better than some other agent.
This idea naturally leads to a measure of unique information,
from which measures of shared information and complementary
information in the case of two random variables (agents) can be
derived.
We discuss several properties of these measures, compute their
values in simple examples and compare them with other proposed
measures.
Our measures yield plausible values in all examples and have
the additional benet that they are motivated not only by abstract
mathematical constructions but by an operational idea.
Information And Communication Technologies 1
Chair: M. Bogua
15:00 15:20
Room A2
Contributed talk
Highlighting Cultural Diversity Via Ranking Of Multilingual
Wikipedia Articles
Young-Ho Eom*, Sebastiano Vigna and Dima L Shepelyansky
How different cultures evaluate a person? Is an important per-
son in one culture also important in the other culture? We address
these questions via ranking of multilingual Wikipedia articles. With
three ranking algorithms based on network structure of Wikipedia,
we assign ranking to all articles in 9 multi-lingual editions of
Wikipedia and investigate general ranking structure. In particu-
lar, we focus on articles related persons, identify top 30 persons
for each rank among different editions and analyze distinctions of
their distributions over activity elds such as politics, art, science,
religion, sport for each edition. We also found that local heroes are
dominant but also global heroes exist. This represents diversity and
shared characteristics between cultures. Our computational and
data driven approach suggests alternative way to study cultural
diversity.
15:20 15:40
Room A2
Contributed talk
Identifying News Clusters Using Q-Analysis And Modularity
David M.S. Rodrigues*
With online publication and social media taking the main role in
dissemination of news, and with the decline of traditional printed
media, it has become necessary to devise ways to automatically ex-
tract meaningful information from the plethora of sources available
and to make that information readily available to interested parties.
In this paper we present a method of automated analysis of the un-
derlying structure of online newspapers based on Q-analysis and
modularity. We show how the combination of the two strategies
allows for the identication of well dened news clusters that are
free of noise (unrelated stories) and provide automated clustering
of information on trending topics on news published online.
15:40 16:00
Room A2
Contributed talk
Poem Platform For Massive Personnalized Education
Jorge Loua, Jeffrey Johnson, Paul Bourgine, Philippe Portelli, Charles
Tijus, Anna Scius-Bertrand, Wolfgang Lenhardt, Maria J. Escalona, Carla
Taramasco, Michael Kohlhase, Jean-Philippe Cointet and Pierre Collet*
The POEM Platform aims at reconciling Massive Education
(MOOCs) with Personalized Education. It will be an open Learning
Management Systems, interoperable with the other open LMS for
sharing all open educational tools and all educational contents.
Curricula are combining thousands of small independent ele-
ments linked together by students who implement a collaborative
man-hill that creates efcient pedagogic trajectories towards their
personal objectives. Students actively Participate to their own edu-
cation. Predictive strategies suggest them the next step toward the
best skill level in their preferred domain and Preventive strategies
are provided in order to avoid future difculties for a Personalized
education.
16:00 16:20
Room A2
Contributed talk
Variation With Time And Location Of Twitter Conversational
Utterances
Christian Alis and May Lim
Social media are used, not only for conveying messages to a
large online audience, but also for having conversations with one
up to a few people. Here we investigated how the length of a single
turn of conversation, an utterance, on the social medium Twitter
changes with time and location. Using 229 million utterances, we
found that utterances shortened at a rate of 5.20 chars/year over a
period of 3 years (September 2009-December 2012). Furthermore,
the subset of geographically-tagged tweets from the United States
show an inverse proportionality between utterance lengths and
the state-level percentage of the Black population. We argue that
shortening of utterances can be explained by the increasing usage
of jargon including coined words.
16:20 16:40
Room A2
Contributed talk
Strategies To Avoid Information Trapping In Communication-
Like Networks Using Random Walks With Priorities
Nikolaos Bastas, Michalis Maragakis, Panos Argyrakis*, Daniel Ben
Avraham, Shlomo Havlin and Shai Carmi
We present a model that can be used to explain properties of
communication-like networks where two types of particles (A and
B which can also represent information or data types) follow a
random walk with priorities. We have shown in Maragakis et al.,
Phys. Rev. E 77, 020103 (2008), that when both species are present
in the same site, the motion of As takes precedence over that of Bs.
Here we provide additional results. In networks, we nd that the
probability of a B type to be able to move decreases exponentially
with the node degree. In scale-free networks, this means that Bs
are gathered at the hubs and cease moving. To remedy this, we sug-
gest three possible strategies to avoid the trapping of Bs: allowing
a trapped B to hop with small probability; use biased walk towards
non-hub nodes; and limiting the capacity of nodes. We discuss the
advantages and shortcomings of these strategies.
Chair: J. M. Sancho
15:00 15:20
Room A3
Contributed talk
A Path To Designing Self-Assembling Surface Patterns On Parti-
cles For Self-Assembly Of The Particles Themselves
Oskar Lindgren*, Martin Nilsson Jacobi and Erik Edlund
Patchy colloids are promising candidates for self-assembly of
metamaterials since directional attraction and high specicity re-
duces the ambiguity of the low energy state, this simplies the
design of self-assembling building blocks. However, the large
scale fabrication of colloids with such patterns becomes more
difcult as the complexity of the surface pattern increases [1,2].
Self-organiziation of the surface patterns themselves have been sug-
gested as a promising fabrication method due to the new types of
patterns it makes accessible [3]. We present a method for designing
self-assembling patterns in multiple components system on particle
surfaces. The theory is based on an analytical treatment of an effec-
tive interaction representation of real systems. As an example, we
use a simplied model of Alkalethoils-on-gold to show how system
parameters resulting in desired patterns can be found. We perform
in silico self-assembly of surface patterns on spherical colloids that
themselves then self-assemble into cubic aggregates and a diamond
crystal.
15:20 15:40
Room A3
Contributed talk
Extreme Events In A Periodically Forced Laser System
Sandro Perrone*
Extreme, rare and devastating events such as tsunamis, market
crashes, earthquakes, population extinctions, etc. are nowadays be-
ing intensively studied. A major challenge is to predict them and,
if possible, to control them, making safer environments and sys-
tems. A type of extreme event is a huge wave (referred to as rogue
wave, RW) that, in many natural systems, appears suddenly and
in apparently calm situations. In laser systems, RWs are ultra-high
intensity pulses [1,2,3]. A key question is if these events could be
totally or partially suppressed by a weak periodic perturbation.
Here we study the complex generation dynamics of RWs and the
associated statistical behavior in the specic case of a semiconduc-
tor laser with a periodic external forcing via a direct modulation of
the laser pump current. We nd that the interplay of intrinsic noise
and external modulation can signicantly modify the probability of
RW occurrence. By yielding light into the role of periodic forcing in
a physical system that generates RWs, our ndings could be helpful
to build future prediction and control models. [1] M. Kovalsky, A.
A. Hnilo, and J. R. Tredicce, Opt. Lett. 36, 4449 (2011). [2] C. Bon-
atto, et al, Phys. Rev. Lett. 107, 053901 (2011). [3] A. N. Pisarchik et
al, Phys. Rev. Lett. 107, 274101 (2011).
15:40 16:00
Room A3
Contributed talk
Extreme Intensity Pulses In A Semiconductor Laser With A Short
External Cavity
Jose A. Reinoso*, Jordi Zamora-Munt and Cristina Masoller
We present a numerical study of the pulses displayed by a semi-
conductor laser with optical feedback in the short cavity regime,
such that the external cavity round trip time is smaller than the
laser relaxation oscillation period. For certain parameters there are
occasional pulses, which are high enough to be considered extreme
events. We characterize the bifurcation scenario that gives rise to
such extreme pulses and study the inuence of noise. We demon-
strate intermittency when the extreme pulses appear and hysteresis
when the attractor that sustains these pulses is destroyed. We also
show that this scenario is robust under the inclusion of noise.
16:00 16:20
Room A3
Contributed talk
Complexity Analysis Of Experimental Nonlinear Laser Systems
Joshua Toomey* and Deborah Kane
Nonlinear lasers, which use several common system congura-
tions to achieve nonlinearity, can display a wide variety of complex
dynamics. Here we generate high resolution maps of the system
complexity, as a function of appropriate system variables, for sev-
eral nonlinear laser systems. It is demonstrated that the complexity
analysis completed is robust and meaningful, and benets from
accessing ongoing improvements in the tools and techniques of
nonlinear time series analysis. Maps that quantify the dynamics
over a range of system parameters permit observation of broad
dynamical regions that verify existing theoretical models, but also
highlight smaller sections of differentiated dynamics that have not
been previously identied. Using multiple measures, in addition
to complexity, on the same data set and combining the information
obtained from multiple dynamic maps provides an extremely de-
tailed representation of the dynamical diversity these systems are
capable of producing. The presentation will highlight very recent
results from a highly complex semiconductor laser with optical
feedback system.
16:20 16:40
Room A3
Contributed talk
Symmetries Shape The Current In Ratchets Induced By Temporal
Asymmetric Forces
Niurka R. Quintero*, Jose A. Cuesta and Renato Alvarez-Nodarse
Equations describing the evolution of particles, solitons, or lo-
calized structures, driven by a zero-average, periodic, external
force, and invariant under time reversal and a half-period time
shift, exhibit a ratchetcurrent when the driving force breaks these
symmetries. The bi-harmonic force f (t) = e_1 cos(qt + _1) +
e_2 cos(pt + _2) does it for almost any choice of _1 and _2,
provided p and q are two co-prime integers such that p + q is odd.
It has been widely observed, in experiments in Josephson-junctions,
photonic crystals, etc., as well as in simulations, that the ratchet
current induced by this force has the shape v e_1
p
e_2
q
cos(p_1
q_2 + _0) for small amplitudes, where _0 depends on the rever-
sal temporal symmetry (usually _0 = /2 if there is no damping,
and _0 = 0 for overdamped systems). This functional shape also
appears in the case of gating ratchets, induced by two harmonics.
One of these two harmonics is an additive force and the other is
used to modulate the nonlinear potential. In this talk we show that
in both cases this precise shape can be obtained solely from the
time invariance of the ratchet current and is independent of the
details of the equation describing the system. Furthermore, we will
show how our theory predicts a deviation from this shape in certain
limits in agreement with experiments reported in optical lattices.
Finally we summarize other predictions not yet observed so far in
any experiments and simulations.
Chair: M. Montero
15:00 15:20
Room A4
Contributed talk
Playing Games In A Social Scenario
Floriana Gargiulo* and Jose Javier Ramasco
Under certain circumstances such as lack of information or
bounded rationality, human players can take decisions on which
strategy to choose in a game on the basis of simple opinions. These
opinions can be modied after each round by observing own or
others payoff results but can be also modied after interchang-
ing impressions with other players. In this way, the update of the
strategies can become a question that goes beyond simple evolu-
tionary rules based on tness and become a social issue.
We explore this scenario by coupling a game with an opinion
dynamics model. The opinion is represented by a continuous vari-
able that corresponds to the certainty of the agents respect to which
strategy is best. The opinions transform into actions by making the
selection of an strategy a stochastic event with a probability regu-
lated by the opinion. A certain regard for the previous round payoff
is included but the main update rules of the opinion are given by a
model inspired in social interchanges. We nd that the xed points
of the dynamics of the coupled model are different from those of
the evolutionary game or the opinion models alone. Furthermore,
new features emerge such as the independence of the fraction of
cooperators with respect to the topology of the social interaction
network or the presence of a small fraction of extremist players.
15:20 15:40
Room A4
Contributed talk
Heterogeneous Resource Allocation Can Change Social Hierarchy
In Public Goods Games
Sandro Meloni*, Cheng-Yi Xia and Yamir Moreno
Nowadays one of the key elements of our societies is the interac-
tion between groups of individuals to achieve a common objective.
From a theoretical point of view, the problem has been approached
with the tools offered by evolutionary game theory and dened as
public goods games (PGG). Here we present a modication of the
classical PGG on networks where players are allowed to distribute
their investments unevenly, allocating more resources to protable
games and less in unfavorable ones. We show that with this mod-
ication an uneven distribution of the wealth naturally emerges
reproducing the so-called Pareto principle. In addition, the analysis
of the structure of the most productive environments highlights
their organization as the backbone of the network. Our results shed
light on the large-scale organization of social and economical sys-
tems and give a simple framework for the emergence of features
present in real economic scenarios.
15:40 16:00
Room A4
Contributed talk
Lab-In-The Field Transition Probabilities When Playing Pris-
onerS Dilemma
Mario Gutierrez-Roig*, Carlos Gracia-Lazaro, Yamir Moreno, Josep
Perello and Angel Sanchez
We analyze the results from a 4-player Prisoners Dilemma ex-
periment after 25 rounds carried out by individuals from different
age groups. We found two different groups with distinct behaviour.
While children have changeable behaviour, elderly present more
persistent strategies. We also show by means of a mathematical
model that our observations are compatible with great accuracy. A
characterization with one-step Markovian transition probabilities
allow us to infer probability permanence on a strategy after a given
number of consecutive rounds and the players resulting prots
distribution.
16:00 16:20
Room A4
Contributed talk
Game Theory With Turnover: Lowest Unique Bid Auctions
Simone Pigolotti*
Lowest unique bid auctions have recently gathered attention
due to the availability of real data from internet websites and their
mathematical tractability. I will discuss how an analytical solution
for the Nash equilibrium can be obtained with tools borrowed from
statistical mechanics. This solution ts remarkably well data from
auctions with a few hundred players or less, while a departure
from the theory is observed in larger auctions. We interpret this
departure as the effect of turnover and develop a theory for games
where experienced players are replaced by naive ones at a given
rate. We then discuss some of the counterintuitive predictions of
this theory, like the fact that while payoff grows with experience,
most games are actually won by players having an intermediate
experience level.
16:20 16:40
Room A4
Contributed talk
Universality In Systems With Group-Outcome Decision Making
Christian Borghesi*, Laura Hernandez, Remi Louf and Fabrice Caparrros
We study decision making in two different situations, where a
group of N agents makes a decision that concerns only themselves
as a group. The rst case, electoral data concerning participation to
local elections in many countries, shows a universal scaling law as
a function of the size, N, of each municipality. The second studied
case, the number of democratic representatives for municipal, re-
gional and national chambers in different countries, also exhibits a
scaling behavior as a function of the corresponding population, N.
In both studied cases the corresponding group of N agents behaves
as if it were split into subgroups of the order of N
1/3
. A simple
phenomenological model reproducing the stylized facts of local
elections is proposed.
Chair: M. Sales
15:00 15:20
Room S9
Contributed talk
Optimization Of Brain Functional Network Reconstruction
Massimiliano Zanin*, Ernestina Menasalvas and Pedro Sousa
In recent years, the representation of complex systems by means
of functional networks has yielded a deeper understanding of their
characteristics. Of special interest has been the study of the activity
of the brain, both by means of ElectroEncephaloGraphic (EEG) and
MagnetoEncephaloGraphic (MEG) recordings. Yet, the reconstruc-
tion of such functional networks includes several steps where the
judgment of the researcher is required. In this talk, we will show
how different data mining techniques can be used to optimize such
network representations, thus increasing the knowledge that can be
extracted from them.
15:20 15:40
Room S9
Contributed talk
Activity Of The Rat Brain Under Different Levels Of Anesthesia
Measured At Distinct Spatiotemporal Scales
Ruggero G. Bettinardi*, Marcel Ruiz-Mejias, Nuria Tort, Gustavo Deco
and Maria V. Sanchez-Vives
It was our objective to test the hypothesis that areas belonging to
the same functional network show a pattern of activity signicantly
different from areas belonging to different networks. Furthermore,
that this difference would be larger for different brain states, for
example at different levels of aneesthesia (deep versus light). With
this purpose we measured the activity of the rat brain at different
temporal and spatial scales under different levels of anesthesia.
Recordings started 30 minutes after the rst injection of anesthetics,
and continued for the next 3 hours, the anesthesia being progres-
sively lighter. A second injection of anesthetic was given after 3
hours from the rst one in order to re-induce deep anesthesia and
be able to carry out a second comparison. This experimental pro-
tocol allowed us to analyse the gradual effects on brain oscillations
and the emerging spatio-temporal patterns while evolving from
deep to light sedation. Functional-MRI (fMRI) was obtained from
4 rats. BOLD signal was extracted for 14 areas in each hemisphere.
At macroscopic scale it was possible to differentiate between deep
and light sedation by means of the BOLD signal change over time,
as well as by evaluating the changing pattern of functional con-
nectivity (FC) between different pair of nodes. FC showed that
anesthesia tends to induce a reversible reduction of the overall syn-
chronization between areas which is subsequently restored towards
the awake state, leading to the gradual emergence of spontaneous
functional networks. We could also differentiate between pair of
areas belonging to the same functional network and pair of areas
belonging to different functional networks by means of the different
FC time course over all fMRI recordings. The choice of the areas
to be recorded with local eld potential (LFP, n = 2 rats) was made
on the basis that a growing number of studies demonstrate that
the intrinsic activity of the brain is far from being random or uni-
form on all areas, but rather highly organized, not only in humans
but also in other mammals. We focused on two areas which have
been reported to belong to the Default Mode Network (DMN) of
rat (i.e. cingulate and medial prefrontal cortices), and two which
do not belong to the same network (i.e. primary auditory and sec-
ondary somatosensory cortices), in agreement with our previous
fMRI ndings. At the mesoscale, the Time-Frequency Analysis
(TFA) enabled us to differentiate between deep and light anesthesia,
suggesting that decrease in anesthetic is followed by a gradual in-
crease in power and a shift from <1 Hz to 1.5 Hz. Although it was
not possible to discriminate between areas belonging to different
functional networks by means of TFA, a ner analysis of the mean
temporal correlation of the Hilbert envelopes of different frequency
bands computed between pairs of areas (also referred to as Carrier
Frequency of the FC) showed that the mean temporal correlation
between DMN areas was consistently higher in all analysed fre-
quencies (especially around 10 Hz) than that between the second
pair of areas during the entire recording. These results conrm our
hypothesis that the coupling between areas belonging to the same
network is higher than that of functionally segregated areas, and
that this difference tends to increase in the transition from deep
anesthesia to the awake state.
15:40 16:00
Room S9
Contributed talk
Symmetric Division Model Of Cell Differentiation Systems
Daniel Sanchez-Taltavull* and Tomas Alarcon
We present a stochastic model of cell differentiation systems. We
study the effect of the symmetric division in the stem cells and we
study the parameters to see how the tissues are protected against
mutations which lead the stem cells to this kind of division. Here
we present an study of the role of the different parameters and
their consequences in the behaviour of the population, in particular
we present a new extinction mechanism due the delay between
the changes in the stem cells compartment and the mature cells
compartment.
16:00 16:20
Room S9
Contributed talk
The Emergence Of Coherent Activity In Neuronal Cultures.
Noise, Topology And Dynamics In Integrate-And-Fire Networks
Javier G. Orlandi, Jordi Soriano, Enrique Alvarez-Lacalle, Sara Teller and
Jaume Casademunt*
When neurons are left to grow freely in vitro and create their
own network of connections, they spontaneously reach a coher-
ent state of collective ring in a pattern of nearly periodic giant
bursts. While understanding the spontaneous activity of neuronal
networks is of chief importance in neuroscience, the origin and
nature of this pulsation has remained elusive. By combining high-
resolution calcium imaging with modeling in silico, we show that
this behavior is controlled by the propagation of waves that nucle-
ate randomly within a set of points that is specic to each culture.
Stochastic nucleation is made consistent with quasi-periodic burst-
ing by the phenomenon of noise focusing, a form of implosive
avalanche dynamics characteristic of integrate-and-re networks
that provides an anomalously fast nucleation mechanism. The spe-
cic location and nucleation rate of the focal points result from a
nontrivial interplay between topology and dynamics in extended
areas of the culture. The resulting scenario challenges previous un-
derstanding of spontaneous activity of neuronal cultures while
providing a quantitative explanation of the early stages of network
self-organization as a noise-driven phenomenon. Results are rel-
evant to functional neuronal tissues and to complex networks in
general, specically to the study of rumor propagation in social
networks.
16:20 16:40
Room S9
Contributed talk
A Mathematical Model For Shaping Gut Microbial Ecosystem
Lena Takayasu, Wataru Suda, Shinji Fukuda, Hiroshi Ohno, Misako
Takayasu, Hideki Takayasu and Masahira Hattori
Gut microbial ecosystem and its association with host physiolo-
gies is one of the attractive research issues in life science eld. We
analyzed 16S rRNA gene sequences of bacterial species residing in
21 dissected intestinal sections of mice. We conrmed the conserva-
tive population distribution and characteristic population ranking
uctuation of bacterial species along the intestine and developed a
simple mathematical model to be able to explain the primary force
shaping the ecosystem in the mouse intestine. This study highlights
the possibility of the existence of a fundamental principle indepen-
dent to individual and inter-species variation.
Chair: V. Colizza
17:10 17:50
Auditorium
Invited talk
Temporal Evolution, Mobility, Communities and Applications
Cecilia Mascolo (University of Cambridge)
While in the last years massive online social networks have be-
come extremely popular, gathering and engaging millions of users,
only recently these social services are becoming location-aware.
This provides broad and ne grained data to investigate how spa-
tial and social structure blend together, opening exciting research
directions with promising scientic and practical applications. In
this talk we describe a number of modelling efforts we have pur-
sued on geo-social networks including urban mobility modelling
through place ranking, a network evolution that keeps into account
the geographical and social aspects of the network and geograph-
ical community dynamics modelling that factors in users place
visits as well as social ties. We will also describe applications of the
models described in the areas of prediction and recommendation.
17:50 18:40
Auditorium
Invited talk
Temporal networks of human contact: measuring, representing
and modeling
Ciro Cattuto (ISI Foundation), Springer lecturer
The adoption of mobile technologies and wearable sensors al-
lows to quantify human behavior at unprecedented levels of scale
and detail. Wearable sensors, in particular, are opening up a new
window on human mobility at the nest resolution of individual
face-to-face interactions, impacting diverse research areas such as
social network analysis and infectious disease dynamics. At the
same time, the large scale and the longitudinal dimension of the
empirical data bring forth new challenges for generative models
and pose new approximation-generalization tradeoffs. Here we
review a 5-year long effort aimed at mapping human mobility and
face-to-face proximity using wearable sensors in a variety of en-
vironments that include schools, hospitals, museums and social
gatherings. We illustrate the structural complexity and temporal
heterogeneities of the empirical data, and discuss the effect of these
features on the dynamics of simple epidemic processes unfolding
over the network. We introduce a hierarchy of summarized rep-
resentations for time-varying social network data and explore the
interplay between the richness in detail of the data representation
and its ability to accurately model important features of spreading
dynamics. Finally, in social contexts, such as schools, where both
community structures and correlated activity patterns are present
we show that mathematical techniques for latent factor detection
can be successfully used to expose and summarize the activity-
community structure of the social system.
Posters
Panel 1 Income Household Distribution In Mexico: A Thermodynamic
Approach
Marcelo Del Castillo-Mussot*, Oscar Cordoba Rodriguez and Jorge A.
Montemayor Aldrete
Based on statistical information on income distribution of pop-
ulation in Mexico provided by the national survey ENIGH of Na-
tional Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics (INEGI in
Spanish), we generated the distribution of household income in
Mexico for some years in the period 1992-2005. The phenomenon
of income distribution may be modeled by analogy to a thermody-
namic phenomenon, where there is a very good analogy between
the law of conservation of energy and conservation of the money.
In the simpler models the principle of entropy maximization for
partitioning of money among agents can be modeled by analogy to
a thermodynamic phenomenon to obtain Boltzmann-Gibbs expo-
nential distributions. We compare the ENIGH household income
distributions in Mexico with thermodynamical models, assuming
that the household or family income corresponds to the added
income of two spouses, with uncorrelated adult incomes.
Panel 2 Local Flow Distribution And Optimal Weighting Against Conges-
tion And Cascading Failures In Weighted Complex Networks
Ziping Hu*, Pramode Verma and Krishnaiyan Thulasiraman
Network robustness against congestion and cascading failures
has been a research topic of practical importance. In this paper, we
study information ow in weighted complex networks. We use a
simple model to simulate trafc dynamics in the network, coupled
with a local ow distribution strategy. Such ow distribution only
makes use of the knowledge of local link weights. By implementing
the model in the underlying scale-free (SF) networks, we demon-
strate that by properly tuning a weight parameter, it is possible to
achieve a global ow optimization based on local ow distribu-
tion, and a maximal level of network robustness against congestion
and cascading failures can be obtained simultaneously. Numerical
evidences have been provided in supporting our ndings.
Panel 3 A Viable Approach To Key Performance Indicators Delivery Pro-
cess In Hassan Usman Katsina Polytechnic Nigeria
Sani Suleiman Isah*
The use of information systems in Key Performance Indicator
delivery process (KDP) has a high degree of inuence on the over-
all outcome of the process. Electronic Appraisal Systems (EAS),
which serve as a gateway between the stakeholders in the KDP
process has met a stiff resistance from the academic staff of institu-
tion of higher learning (IHL) due to issues such as labor-intensive,
database connectivity support and feedback through email. These
issues demand a sustainable approach particularly to link the stake-
holders requirements with the information system in place (EAS).
As the result, our aim is to propose solution to KPI delivery for
scholarly publication in institution of higher learning (IHL). For this
purpose, the KPI delivery process was examined in a case study
in which Electronic Appraisal System (EAS) was used as a media-
tor between the stakeholders. We propose a four-phase diagnostic
framework using enhanced Viable System Model (VSM)as the tool
for identifying the factors, which inuence academic staff KPI de-
livery process on scholarly publication in Hassan Usman Katsina
Polytechnic Katsina. The approach has been found to be useful in
identifying and providing sustainable measures that can be imple-
mented in the EAS to improve productivity.
Panel 4 Strong Controllability Of Networked Systems And Minimum
Rank Of A Graph: What Can We Compute ?
Maguy Trefois* and Jean-Charles Delvenne
The maximum constrained matchings in a bipartite graph are
useful to study the strong structural controllability of a networked
system as well as the minimum rank of a directed graph (allowing
loops). However, computing a maximum constrained matching
in a bipartite graph is NP-hard. We show that for some structures
of graphs however, it is possible to compute the minimum rank
exactly. This allows to study the strong structural controllability of
systems organized according to these particular structures.
Panel 5 Local Symmetries And Compression Of Discrete Systems
Malgorzata Krawczyk*
We present the method which allows for the reduction of the size
of a simulated system. The method can be applied to any system
for which one can dene a nite set of possible states of the system
and an elementary process which transforms one state of the sys-
tem to another. The method uses the symmetry of the system for an
indication of classes of states, which can be used instead of states
for the representation of the analysed system. We show its applica-
tions to a frustrated spin system, a trafc system, a chain of reptons
and cellular automata.
Panel 6 Statistical Analysis Of Unbiased Polymer Translocation
Felipe Mondaini* and Luca Moriconi
We perform, with the help of cloud computing resources, ex-
tensive Langevin simulations which provide compelling evidence
in favor of a general markovian framework for unbiased polymer
translocation. Our statistical analysis consists of careful evaluations
of (i) two-point correlation functions of the translocation coordinate
and (ii) the empirical probabilities of complete polymer transloca-
tion (taken as a function of the initial number of monomers on a
given side of the membrane). We nd good agreement with predic-
tions derived from the Markov chain approach recently addressed
in the literature by the present authors.
Panel 7 Overdamped Motion Of Interacting Particles In General Conn-
ing Potentials: Time-Dependent And Stationary-State Analyses
Mauricio Ribeiro*, Fernando D. Nobre and Evaldo Curado
By comparing numerical and analytical results, it is shown that a
system of interacting particles under overdamped motion is very
well described by a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation, which
can be associated with nonextensive statistical mechanics. The
particle-particle interactions considered are repulsive, motivated
by three different physical situations: (i) modied Bessel function;
(ii) Yukawa-like forces; (iii) derived from a Gaussian potential.
Moreover, the system is subjected to a general conning potential,
(x) = (|x|
z
)/z ( > 0, z > 1), so that an stationary state is
reached after a sufciently long time. Recent investigations have
shown strong evidence that a q-Gaussian distribution, P(x, t), with
q = 0, describes appropriately the particle positions during their
time evolution, as well as in their stationary state. The present work
reinforces further the connection with nonextensive statistical me-
chanic and suggests that a wide variety of physical phenomena,
characterized by repulsive interacting particles under verdamped
motion, present a universal behavior, in the sense that all of them
are associated with the same entropic form and nonlinear Fokker-
Planck equation.
Panel 8 Symmetry Creating Bifurcation In Collective Decision-Making
Natalia Zabzina*, Stamatios Nicolis, Audrey Dussutour and David
Sumpter
Decision-making associated to the selection of feeding sites or
shelters has been extensively studied in social living organisms. A
bifurcation phenomenon, in which one of the options attracts most
of the population and predominated clearly over the other is known
as symmetry breaking bifurcation point. The idea of symmetry-
breaking depending on the number of individuals have inspired
also elds of research focusing on economics and human behaviour.
We study the decision-making patterns of Physarum polycephalum
in the simplest scenario of the presence of two feeding sites as an
alternative paradigm of decision-making. The main difference from
previous studies is that the systems units are limited and ux is
decreasing with the number of units moving to the options. We
consider a mathematical model which admits four physically ac-
ceptable steady-state solutions.We study model parameters and
derived explicit condition for critical mass value corresponding
to the symmetry creating bifurcation. The results of stability and
asymptotic analyses lead to conclusion that for large mass the sta-
ble exclusive exploitation of one option can not be reached. The
experiment was performed with aim to study exploitation pattern
of three different strains of Physarum polycephalum plasmodia. In
our model we reect these behaviour by choosing right values for
model parameters, corresponding to tube construction and critical
mass value for each strain. The experimental results are quailta-
tively consistent with our model prediction.
Panel 9 Entropy Production Of Systems Described By Nonlinear Fokker-
Planck Equations
Gabriela Casas*, Fernando Nobre and Evaldo Curado
The entropy time rate of systems described by nonlinear Fokker-
Planck equations which are directly related to generalized en-
tropic forms is analyzed. Both entropy production, associated
with irreversible processes, and entropy ux from the system to its
surroundings, are studied. Some examples of known generalized
entropic forms are considered, and particularly, the ux and pro-
duction of the Boltzmann-Gibbs entropy, obtained from the linear
Fokker-Planck equation, are recovered as particular cases. Since
nonlinear Fokker-Planck equations are appropriate for describing
the dynamical behavior of several physical phenomena in nature,
like many within the realm of complex systems, the present analy-
sis should be useful for irreversible processes in these systems.
Panel 10 Interacting Vortices In The Absence Of Thermal Noise: Effective-
Temperature Concept
Fernando D. Nobre*, Andre M.C. Souza and Evaldo M.F. Curado
Interacting vortices under overdamped motion are considered
in the absence of thermal noise (T = 0). A parameter is intro-
duced through an effective free-energy functional, f = u s, for
which the H-theorem [(d f /dt) 0] holds, and it is shown that is
directly related to the density, as well as to the interactions among
vortices. Generalized quantities like entropy, internal energy, free
energy, and heat capacity are analyzed; important relations and
physical behavior analogous to those of standard thermodynamics
are found, showing that plays the role of an effective temperature.
Panel 11 Societal Systems - Complex Or Worse?
Petter Tornberg*, Claes Andersson and Anton Tornberg
Complexity science is widely seen as a source of key theoretical
capabilities that have long been lacking in the study of large-scale
societal phenomena. But compared with the transformative impact
of complexity science in many other elds, few real breakthroughs
have materialized. We here address the question of why societal
systems remain so recalcitrant, and not only to complexity science,
but to formal approaches in general. We argue that society com-
bines at least two methodologically troublesome systemic qualities:
here referred to as complexity and complicatedness. We do have
powerful formal approaches for dealing with both of these quali-
ties, but we argue that the combination between these qualities is
emergent; i.e. fundamentally and irreducibly different from either
quality in isolation. Noting a connection to what has long been
called "wicked problems" we outline a possible new class of sys-
tems that we call "Wicked Systems".
Panel 12 Resilience Of Complex Systems
Kemal Delic* and Paul Bourgine
Nature is the supreme example of resilient system. Seen as
the hyper-complex system, it can offer important lessons for the
human-made, engineered systems and wide variety of hybrid sys-
tems. We observe the ve distinguishing features of the natural
system for study and deeper understanding: diversity, adaptation,
renewal, correlation and causality. We suggest possible analogies
and conclude with research agenda for profound study of resilience
in complex systems.
Panel 13 Functional Network Representation Of Dna
Shambhavi Srivastava and Murilo Da Silva Baptista*
Escherichia coli is a bacteria that is present in human digestive
system and is one of the commonly used model organisms: its
DNA is well known, well studied, and can be used to test mathe-
matical approaches towards modelling the DNA. In this work, we
design a special encoding to represent nucleotide sequences into
symbolic sequences and create a symbolic map of the E.coli DNA.
This map allows for a straightforward characterisation of the DNA
generating it through informational (Shannons source entropy and
mutual information rate) and metric measures (Lyapunov expo-
nents) [1]. We also establish functional connectivity between two
regions in this symbolic map (representing two groups of similar
nucleotides, i.e. two words) based on the rate at which information
is exchanged and on the decay of cross correlation. Interpreting a
node to represent a group of similar words (a region in the sym-
bolic space) and edges to represent the functional connections
between them (measured by the rate of information exchanged
or the coefcient of the correlation decay) allows us to construct a
network representation of this DNA, a graph representation of the
grammatical rules governing the appearance of nucleotide words.
Panel 14 Determining Functional And Physical Connectivity In Complex
Time-Series
Ezequiel Bianco-Martinez*, Chris Antonopoulos and Murilo Da Silva
Baptista
The study of the way information is exchanged between nodes in
complex networks is of primordial importance for the understand-
ing of its functionality. A quantity known as Mutual Information
Rate (MIR), dened as the mutual information per unit of time, can
quantify the exchange of information between nodes in a pair-wise
fashion or between pairs of data sets, and is well dened for sys-
tems with correlation as well as memoryless systems. Our work
utilizes the MIR and bounds for it to understand the relationship
between information ow, functional and physical topology of com-
plex dynamical networks. The bounds for the MIR in a network are
dened in terms of dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov expo-
nents, expansion rates, dimensions, which consequently allows one
to relate information with dynamical characteristics of this network,
without needing to calculate probabilities, a challenge in time-series
analysis. These invariants, easy to be calculated when the dynami-
cal equations of the network are known, require huge efforts to be
calculated in real data coming from complex systems. This work
shows that using simple strategies, partitions that approximate the
Markov generating partitions (whose probability densities of points
belonging to them behave as if they had been generated by a ran-
dom system) can be obtained. These dynamical invariants can be
easily calculated from this approximate Markov partition, which
leads to the estimation of the bounds for the MIR. These Markov
approximations can also be used to calculate the MIR, a quantity
that is different from Shannons entropy and mutual information,
is well dened in systems with memory. This methodology is then
used to determine functional and physical connections in data com-
ing from complex dynamical networks.
Panel 15 Stability Of Spiral Waves In Cyclically Competing Populations
Bartosz Szczesny*, Mauro Mobilia and Alastair M. Rucklidge
The spiralling patterns arising from the combined effects of
cyclic dominance, mutation, pair-exchange and hopping of indi-
viduals, are studied in a two-dimensional three-species population
model. The systems phase diagram around a Hopf bifurcation is
inferred from the underlying complex Ginzburg-Landau equation
derived with a perturbative multiscale expansion. While the dy-
namics is generally characterised by spiralling patterns, they are
shown to be stable in only one of the four phases. Furthermore, a
spiral annihilation phase is discovered, in which spatially uniform
dominance of each species occurs in turn.
Panel 16 Persistent Behaviour Of Lottery Gamers
Fernando Jose Antonio, Renio Dos Santos Mendes, Andreia Itami Da
Silva* and Sergio De Picoli Jr
Usually, lottery organizers evidence that their draws are un-
biased. Notwithstanding, we identify that the number of lottery
winners may exhibit temporal persistent behaviour. This possibil-
ity is veried in data from Mega-Sena, the major lottery in Brazil.
For analysing the memory effect produced by the temporal dy-
namics of the number of winners, we use Detrended Fluctuation
Analysis (DFA). We also show that a simple model grounded on
the traditional rolling-over feature of lotteries can generate a per-
sistent behaviour similar to the one observed in the empirical data.
This result is also consistent with the fact that the expectation of
being awarded with money can drive human actions and response
to events. For these reasons, the rolling-over feature is a possible
mechanism leading to the persistence observed in lottery winners.
In this framework, lottery games could be thought as a random
scenario driven by unbiased drawings, but, at the same time, inu-
enced by an external agent related to human greed: the desire for
wealth which causes players to bet more depending on how big the
offered prize is.
This external agent works in a feedback loop, where the system
outputs feed back into the system changing the input, which can
either ramp up or down the system output. More specically, the
external agent behaves as a quantitative response of the collective
human behaviour motivated by the expectation of being awarded
with money. We also claim that similar mechanisms could be rele-
vant to explain persistence and correlations present in other social
and biological systems.
Panel 17 Trade Off Models For Complex Systems
Burton Voorhees*
In complex systems, conceptualized in terms of agents with
learning and possibly self-referential capacities, interactions be-
tween system elements will not follow simple mechanical rules.
Instead, they will depend on the global output of the system it-
self, as well as environmental context, and will involve non-linear
feedback and feed forward relations that eliminate any possibility
of individual optimization on each dimension. Rather, behavior
must be simultaneously optimized across multiple interrelated di-
mensions, implying the necessity for tradeoffs between conicting
resource and operational demands. In this paper we consider two
such tradeoffs: between quickness and accuracy in response to en-
vironmental input; and, between stability and exibility in the face
of random environmental uctuations. Simple models illustrating
the issues arising in each case are presented and analyzed.
Panel 18 (Failure Of The) Wisdom Of The Crowds In An Endogenous
Opinion Dynamics Model With Multiply Biased Agents
Steffen Eger*
We study an endogenous opinion (or, belief) dynamics model
where we endogenize the social network that models the link
(trust) weights between agents. Our network adjustment mech-
anism is simple: an agent increases her weight for another agent
if that agent has been close to truth (whence, our adjustment crite-
rion is past performance). Moreover, we consider multiply biased
agents that do not learn in a fully rational manner but are sub-
ject to persuasion bias they learn in a DeGroot manner, via a
simple rule of thumb and that have biased initial beliefs. In ad-
dition, we also study this setup under conformity, opposition, and
homophily which are recently suggested variants of DeGroot
learning in social networks thereby taking into account further
biases agents are susceptible to. Our main focus is on crowd wis-
dom, that is, on the question whether the so biased agents can ad-
equately aggregate dispersed information and, consequently, learn
the true states of the topics they communicate about. In particular,
we present several conditions under which wisdom fails.
Panel 19 Optimal Inter-Connections For Spectral Radius Of Interdepen-
dent Complex Networks: A Perturbation Approach
Wenlian Lu*, Shouhuai Xu and Xinlei Yi
Interdependent complex networks are composed from multi-
ple complex networks via inter-connection links, and have become
an active research sub-eld because they can realistically model
many complex systems in the real world. In this paper, we study
one optimization problem in the context of interdependent complex
networks, namely the problem of maximizing the spectral radius
(the largest eigenvalue) of interdependent complex networks while
constrained on a xed number of inter-connections links, where
both the intra-network links and the inter-connection links can be
directed and weighted. We use the perturbation approach to de-
rive optimal inter-connection strategies in the cases of small and
large inter-connection gains. The problem is NP-hard in general,
and therefore we present heuristic algorithms to search for solu-
tions. Numerical results indicate that our algorithms are better than
random and degree-dependent inter-connection strategies.
Panel 20 Strategic Planning For Social And Environmental Development
In Rural Mexico
Felipe Lara-Rosano*, Rosalba Juarez Garduno and Adriana Quiroga-
Carapia
To contribute to the social and environmental innovation in the
southern border of Mexico in order to strengthen the local capacity
for sustainable management of natural resources and the welfare
of its inhabitants, a network of seventeen different action-research
groups including indigenous communities was established by El
Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR) called the Network of Social
and Environmental Innovations (REDISA). This network should
be the basis for implementing social and environmental innova-
tion projects in the southern border of Mexico.In this paper we
present the results of a strategic planning workshop to propose
developmental strategies for this network, based on a participa-
tory approach, with the following objectives:1) To dene the ideal
prole of a problem oriented academic network to contribute to
the social and environmental innovation on the southern border of
Mexico. 2) To prescribe the strategies that would lead the network
to achieve the ideal prole, overcoming the limitations and seizing
the opportunities.In this paper we present the results of the strate-
gic planning of this problem oriented academic network, based
on a participatory approach.Given the objectives of the planning
exercise, we organized the following sessions:1. Denition of the
desirable characteristics of REDISA. The purpose was to outline
the desired image that provides guidance to actions.2. Denition
of strategies with which REDISA could approach this desirable
image, meeting its goals and overcoming obstacles.The seminar
sessions were conducted using group dynamics techniques, derived
from the participatory planning TKJ technique. Sessions 1and 2
were unwrapped in one day. Below are the results of the planning
sessions. DEFINITION OF STRATEGIESAt the strategic planning
workshop a planning policy was dened, consisting of ten strate-
gies, in order REDISA to overcome obstacles and weaknesses and
approach its goals. These ten strategies were following:1. Targeting
strategy. REDISA must be a space for reection and holistic anal-
ysis of collective problems and possible alternative paths of socio-
environmental innovation processes, at micro and macro scale.2.
Diagnostic strategy. REDISA must analyze and evaluate with a his-
torical and political perspective the strengths, weaknesses and im-
pact of the different socio-environmental innovation strategies that
have its network nodes3. Linking strategy with government and
civil society. REDISA must strengthen the social responsibility of
its research programs, addressing the problems of poverty and en-
vironmental deterioration of the southern border with values such
as respect, fairness, ethics, austerity and critical thinking.4. Linking
strategy with ECOSUR. REDISA must contribute with cooperative
and transparent mechanisms to the improvement of administrative
procedures of ECOSUR.5. Consolidation and internal synergy strat-
egy. REDISA must be democratic, trans-disciplinary, self-critical,
exible and adaptive, and have short and long term programs. 6.
Collaboration strategy. REDISA must have committed members
collaborating with related allies at the local, regional, national and
international level.7. Human resources training strategy. REDISA
must contribute to the formation of high quality human resources
(including training) in all sectors (students, staff, teachers, etc.) to
improve its products and processes.8. Knowledge exchange strat-
egy. REDISA must provide knowledge and experience exchange to
impact on the development of the region.9. Dissemination strategy.
REDISA must widely spread relevant processes and products to
improve its environment.10. Financial strategy. REDISA must sys-
tematize and evaluate its relevant processes and products to obtain
proper nancing.CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONSTo
keep proper control and monitoring of strategies, in each case the
implementation of each strategic action must be documented. This
documentation must contain the following information:a) Nature
of the activity to be done.b) The specic goal of the activity.c) The
strategic responsible of the activity.d) The steps to be followed in
the activity.e) The responsible of each step.f) How will the respon-
sible carry out the coordination of each step.g) The nancial and
other resources allocated at each step.h) The critical assumptions
underlying the implementation.i) The expected effects of the ac-
tion and when they are expected.j) The assumptions underlying
expectations.The evaluation of the effects of the plan must be based
on the goals and objectives initially proposed and the situation
achieved with the implementation of the plan. The discrepancies
found between the original purpose and the results should be used
to design appropriate corrective measures, adapting the plan to cur-
rent circumstances.If the results do not match the expectations, an
analysis must be made of the inconsistencies, which should cover
the following points:

A c If the information used to dene the ac-
tion was wrong and, if so, which one is true.

A c If the responsible
for the implementation has failed.

A c If the environment changed
in unforeseen ways, altering the relationship between actions and
their effects.This evaluation will permit to review the medium and
long-term objectives, in order to adapt to new circumstances as
they arise.BIBLIOGRAPHYBello-Baltazar, E., Naranjo-Piera, E. J.
& Vandame, R. (2012). La Otra Innovacin para el Ambiente y la
Sociedad en la Frontera Sur de Mxico. San Cristbal de Las Casas:
El Colegio de la Frontera Sur.Checkland, P. & Poulter, J. (2006).
Learning for Action: A Short Denitive Account of Soft Systems
Methodology and its use for Practitioners, Teachers and Students.
Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.Lara-Rosano, F. & Quiroga-Carapia,
A. (2012). Planicacin de Estrategias de la Red de Espacios de
Innovacin Socioambiental. San Cristbal de Las Casas: El Cole-
gio de la Frontera Sur.Lara-Rosano F. (1990). "Metodologa para la
planeacin de sistemas: un enfoque prospectivo. Mxico: Direc-
cin General de Planeacin, Evaluacin y Proyectos Acadmicos
UNAM.Acknowledgement: This work was supported in part by the
project Conacyt 152008
Panel 21 Application Of N-Grams Frequency Dictionaries To The Analysis
Of Financial Time Series
Michael Sadovsky* and Igor Borovikov
The paper introduces a novel approach to statistical analysis of
nancial time series. The approach is based on n-grams frequency
dictionaries derived from the quantized market data. Such dictio-
naries are studied by evaluating their information capacity using
relative entropy. Possible applications of the proposed technique
include market event study with the n-grams of higher information
value. The nite length of the input data presents certain computa-
tional and theoretical challenges discussed in the paper. This work
builds on the techniques previously developed for bio-informatics.
Panel 22 Nonlinear Diffusion: Effects On Biological Populations Patterns
Celia Anteneodo* and Eduardo Colombo
Anomalous diffusion is a realistic feature in the dynamics of
many biological populations. We investigate its implications in
a generalization of the Fisher equation. We analyze the effect of
substituting normal diffusion by anomalous (nonlinear) one, char-
acterized by a real exponent nu. This nonlinearity encompasses the
cases in which the diffusion coefcient either increases (nu>1) or
decreases (nu<1) with the density, yielding sub- or super-diffusion,
respectively. A nonlocal competition term is also considered which
gives rise to spatial patterns. By means of our numerical and an-
alytical results, we show how anomalous diffusion affects the dia-
gram of pattern formation and pattern shape.
Panel 23 Universality In Complexity: A Random Matrix Viewpoint
Pragya Shukla*
The system dependent random matrix theory is a mathemati-
cal tool to study the statistical behavior of those complex systems
where a matrix representation of the operators is meaningful. The
complexity of a system, in general, makes it difcult to determine
some or almost all matrix elements. The lack of accuracy acts as a
source of randomness for the matrix elements which are also sub-
jected to an external potential due to existing system conditions.
The operator can then be described by a system dependent ran-
dom matrix. The uctuation of accuracy due to varying system
conditions leads to diffusion of the matrix elements. We show that,
for single-well potentials, the diffusion can be described by a com-
mon mathematical formulation where system information enters
through a single parameter. This suggests possible classication of
complex systems in an innite range of universality classes charac-
terized just by a single parameter and the nature of global physical
constraints. It seems to indicate a web of connection hidden un-
derneath complex systems (even beyond delocalized wave regime)
ranging as widely as quantum world of nano-systems on one hand
to classical world of complex networks on the other hand.
Panel 24 Non Linear Analysis And Network Properties Of Heat Release
Fluctuations In A Spark-Engine Model
Lev Guzman-Vargas*, Pedro Curto-Risso, Alejandro Medina, Antonio
Calvo-Hernandez and Fernando Angulo-Brown
In this work we report some results of the analysis of cycle-by-
cycle variations in heat release for the simulated engine with noisy
components. Our approaches are based on scaling properties of
heat release uctuations by means of monofractal and network
analyses. We characterize the uctuations for several fuel-air ratio
values, , from lean mixtures to over stoichiometric situations. The
monofractal approach reveals that for lean and stoichiometric con-
ditions uctuations are characterized by the presence of weak anti-
correlations whereas for intermediate mixtures we observe complex
dynamics characterized by a crossover in the scaling exponents, for
short scales the variations display positive correlations while for
large scales the uctuations are close to white noise. We explore the
origin of correlations by using the surrogate data method to com-
pare the ndings of scaling exponents between original simulated
and randomized data. We also apply the visibility method to map
heat release uctuations into a network to characterize variations in
terms of the degree distribution. Finally, we study the behavior of
energetic functions when the presence of cyclic variability isconsid-
ered. We evaluate the uctuating behavior for Q_R,P, and related
to random variations of the basic physicalparameters in an entrain-
ment or eddy-burningsituations for the model. We nd that whereas
Q_R displays short-rangecorrelations for intermediate values of the
fuel ratio, both P and are characterized by uncorrelated dynamics.
A noisy loop-shaped P vs plot for a large number ofengine cycles
is observed for different values of the fuel ratio.
Panel 25 Complex Behaviour Of A Community Of Locally Informed Ani-
mals
Michael Sadovsky* and Maria Senashova
A novel model of the targeted migration of a biological commu-
nity is studied. The beings have local information access. Migration
is not random but yields the maximization of a net reproduction,
in general; specic version of this general rule is implemented. The
local information access means a lack of knowledge on the environ-
mental conditions in the site of immigration. Various regimes for
the models are studied. A reciprocal chaotic-like migrations may
take place, for some reasonable parameters gures. Some typical
limit regimes of a complex nature are studied as well.
Panel 26 A Universal Model Of Commuting Networks
Maxime Lenormand*, Sylvie Huet, Floriana Gargiulo and Guillaume
Deffuant
We show that a recently proposed model generates accurate
commuting networks on 80 case studies from different regions of
the world (Europe and United-States) at different scales (e.g. mu-
nicipalities, counties, regions). The model takes as input the num-
ber of commuters coming in and out of each geographic unit and
generates the matrix of commuting ows between the units. The
single parameter of the model follows a universal law that depends
only on the scale of the geographic units. We show that our model
signicantly outperforms two other approaches proposing a uni-
versal commuting model (Balcan et al. (2009); Simini et al. (2012))
particularly when the geographic units are small (e.g. municipali-
ties).
Panel 27 Modeling Dynamics Of Biorhythms At Different Scales Of Bio-
logical System
Andrey Zakharov* and Dmitry Bratsun
We dene three characteristic scales of a biological system: mi-
croscopic (size of a gene), mesoscopic (size of a cell) and macro-
scopic (size of an organ or even whole organism). A certain ap-
proach is needed for studying the rhythms at each level. For each
case the approach to modeling of circadian rhythms is discussed
on the base of a time-delay model. At genes scale the stochastic
description has been used. At the mesoscopic scale we propose
the deterministic description within the spatially extended model.
Macroscopic effects have been studied within the discrete model
describing the collective behaviour of large amount of cells. The
problem of cross-linking of results obtained at different scales is
discussed. The comparison with available experimental data is
given.
Panel 28 Center-Of-Pressure Velocity Distribution During Quiet Stance
Edenize S. D. Santos*, Sergio Picoli Jr., Pedro P. Depra and Renio S.
Mendes
We investigated patterns in the postural uctuations that char-
acterize the static balance in human beings. More specically we
studied the behavior of the center-of-pressure (COP) velocity of
healthy subjects during quiet stance. Despite the fact that skewness
does not show signicant differences when compared to a normal
velocity distribution, a kurtosis analysis indicated a non-Gaussian
behavior. Moreover, we veried that the velocity distribution can
be well described over the entire range by a normalized q-Gaussian
distribution. This result can be useful in modelling the COP trajec-
tory.
Panel 29 Homological Classication Of Weighted Complex Networks
Giovanni Petri*, Martina Scolamiero, Irene Donato and Francesco Vac-
carino
We introduce a novel method to detect particular non-local struc-
tures, akin to weighted holes within the link-weight network fabric,
invisible to existing methods. These divide weighted networks in
two broad classes: one characterized by small hierarchically nested
holes, and a second displaying larger and longer living inhomo-
geneities. These classes cannot be reduced to known local network
properties, due of the mesoscopic nature of homological proper-
ties. Finally, we show that the classication nds a correlate in the
adjacency and Laplacian spectral gaps, linking topological and
dynamical network properties.
Panel 30 Chaotic Oscillations In Singularly Perturbed Fitzhugh-Nagumo
Systems
Peterson Barbosa and Alberto Saa*
We consider the singularly perturbed limit of periodically ex-
cited two-dimensional FitzHugh-Nagumo systems. We show that
the dynamics of such systems are essentially governed by an one-
dimensional map and present a numerical scheme to accurately
compute it together with its Lyapunov exponent. We then inves-
tigate the occurrence of chaos by varying the parameters of the
system, with especial emphasis on the simplest possible chaotic
oscillations. Our results corroborate and complement some recent
works on bifurcations and routes to chaos in certain particular cases
corresponding to piecewise linear FitzHugh-Nagumo-like systems.
Panel 31 Signs Of Lag-Time Effects In The Connectivity Of Climate Net-
works Constructed With Surface Temperature Anomalies
Giulio Tirabassi and Cristina Masoller*
The complex network framework has been successfully applied
to the analysis of climatological data, providing, for example, a
better understanding of the mechanisms underlying reduced pre-
dictability during El Nino or La Nina years. Despite the large in-
terest that climate networks have attracted, several issues related
to the interpretation of the results remain to be investigated. Here
we focus in the information represented by the links of climate
networks constructed via similarities of surface air temperature
anomalies. Specically, we study the effect of data time-shifting in
the network topology. To analyse the inuence of the common forc-
ing represented by the solar annual cycle we shift the time series
in each pair of nodes such as to superpose their seasonal cycles.
In this way, when two nodes are located in different hemispheres
we are able to quantify the similarity of temperature anomalies
during the winters and during the summers. We nd that data
time-shifting does not affect the network connectivity in any sig-
nicant way; it results only in small variations of local connectivity.
This is an unexpected property of the climate network that calls
for a revision of the physical meaning of the long range links (tele-
connections) in networks constructed via similarities of temperature
anomalies.
Panel 32 Genetic Diversity And Structure Of Marine Seagrass Network
Tomas Sintes*, Carlos M. Duarte and Nuria Marba
Clonal organisms, i.e. those that reproduce mainly by direct
genome replication without sexual recombination, are present in all
living kingdoms and play a key role in the biosphere, however, the
current understanding of their ecology and evolution is hampered
by the challenges that clonal life poses to the application of clas-
sical evolutionary models. Such organisms potentially recombine
to avoid the accumulation of deleterious mutations while being
able to maintain exceptionally performing genotypes. Therefore,
the quantication of the clonal richness becomes a fundamental
measurement of the community diversity and underlies many con-
servation strategies. In this sense, the development of microsatellite
markers has supplied a powerful tool to overcome the problem of
clonality assessment and to quantify the size and longevity of ge-
netic individuals. Nevertherless, these studies often are hampered
by the reduced sampling size or by the low level of the markers
polymorphism.
Among these organisms, the largest clones identied correspond
to angiosperms and, particularly, to marine seagrasses that support
the most valuable ecosystems in terms of biodiversity and produc-
tion. To understand the factors that inuence their ecological and
evolutionary dynamics is of great importance to anticipate and
prevent their decline.
Their structure corresponds to a complex rhizomatous network
from which shoots emerge and mutually interact. Based of prelim-
inary seagrass growth models we will estimate the clonal richness
and check for the best indices to describe the diversity and struc-
ture in clonal plants and to detect the underlying mechanisms of
competitive interaction from the genotype distribution.
Panel 33 Scaling Behaviour In Probabilistic Neuronal Cellular Automata
Kaustubh Manchanda*, Avinash Chand Yadav and Ramakrishna Ra-
maswamy
We study a neural network model of interacting stochastic dis-
crete twostate cellular automata on a regular lattice. The system is
externally tuned to a critical point which varies with the degree of
stochasticity (or the effective temperature). There are avalanches of
neuronal activity, namely spatially and temporally contiguous sites
of activity; a detailed numerical study of these activity avalanches is
presented, and single, joint and marginal probability distributions
are computed. At the critical point, we nd that the scaling expo-
nents for the variables are in good agreement with a meaneld
theory.
Panel 34 An Idiotypic Network Model With Evolutionary Dynamics
Massimo Cavallaro*, Vincenzo Nicosia, Francesco Pappalardo, Santo
Motta and Vito Latora
According to Jernes Idiotypic network theory, the immune B-
cellsrespond not only to inoculated antigens, butthey interact with
and recognize each one another through antibodies.The study of
the emerging interaction graph represents a challenge.This graph
is often considered as xed or inuenced only by externalinjection
of cells and antigens.Here we propose a continuous dynamical
model of idiotypic network,in which a quasi-species term allows
the appearance of mutants B-cellclones through the basic laws of
replication, mutation, and selection.This model sustains a network
topology in the high dimensional case.Furthermore, we show that
the mutation rate governs the behaviour of themost important
properties of immune system, i.e. memory and tolerance,and their
failure.
Panel 35 Characterizing Clustered Neuronal Networks
Sara Teller*, Clara Granell, Sergio Gomez, Alex Arenas and Jordi Soriano
Neuronal cultures are excellent model systems to study dy-
namics in neuronal networks and the interplay between neuronal
connectivity and activity. In order to investigate the dependence of
neuronal network dynamics on architecture we study spontaneous
activity in clustered neuronal networks, where neurons aggregate
to one another to form a network of interconnected clusters of neu-
rons. These clustered networks have a distinct architecture and
dynamics compared to standard cultures, which are formed by
homogeneously distributed neurons on a substrate.In the exper-
iments we monitor neuronal activity using calcium uorescence
imaging. Activity is characterized by bursts of activity combined
with periods of relative silence. In these bursts of activity the clus-
ters re in a sequential but complex manner, with ring patterns
that often encompass different clusters and ring order. The study
of different network properties indicates that these clustered net-
works tend to reinforce themselves and stabilize activity. Finally, we
also observed that the perturbation of connectivity in the network
by chemical or physical means disrupts the collective activity in
some cases. In other cases, some dynamic sequences are preserved
or reinforced, hinting at the existence of dynamic robustness or
network-adaptation mechanisms.
Panel 36 Towards A Problem Of The Structure Analysis Of Russian
Tongue Twister
Oxana Tolstonozhenko* and Konstantin Bogdanov
Sound features of a tongue twister are still beyond the scope of
Russianfolklore studies. Here the phonetic peculiarities are the key
issue,since they make the origin of the genre. We found in Russian
tongue twisters the "difcult" (complex) combinations of sounds to
organize thephrase pattern; a complexity of pronunciation is the by-
product, incontrary to a common opinion. A core and a periphery
are identied ina onomatopoeia. They are interconnected through
a number of varioussound repeats. The repeats provide both a
onomatopoeia, and the genreorganization, in general.
Panel 37 Inferring Interdependencies In Climate Networks Constructed At
Inter-Annual, Intra-Season And Longer Time Scales
J. Ignacio Deza*, Marcelo Barreiro and Cristina Masoller
We study global climate networks constructed by means of or-
dinal time series analysis. Climate interdependencies among the
nodes are quantied by the mutual information, computed from
time series of monthly-averaged surface air temperature anomalies,
and from their symbolic ordinal representation (OP). This analysis
allows identifying topological changes in the network when varying
the time-interval of the ordinal pattern. We consider intra-season
time-intervals (e.g., the patterns are formed by anomalies in con-
secutive months) and inter-annual time-intervals (e.g., the patterns
are formed by anomalies in consecutive years). We discuss how the
network density and topology change with these time scales, and
provide evidence of correlations between geographically distant
regions that occur at specic time scales. In particular, we nd that
an increase in the ordinal pattern spacing (i.e., an increase in the
timescale of the ordinal analysis), results in climate networks with
increased connectivity on the equatorial Pacic area. On the con-
trary, the number of signicant links decreases when the ordinal
analysis is done with a shorter timescale (by comparing consecutive
months), and interpret this effect as due to more stochasticity in the
time-series in the short timescale. As the equatorial Pacic is known
to be dominated by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on scales
longer than several months, our methodology allows construct-
ing climate networks where the effect of ENSO goes from mild
(monthly OP) to intense (yearly OP), independently of the length of
the ordinal pattern and of the thresholding method employed.
Panel 38 Stylized Facts On Price War Dynamics In An Online Product
Market
Takayuki Mizuno*, Makoto Nirei and Tsutomu Watanabe
Why are product prices in online markets dispersed in spite
of very small search costs? Can we prevent excessive competition
among e-retailers by answering to this question? To address these
questions we construct a unique dataset from a Japanese price com-
parison site, which records price quotes offered by e-retailers as
well as customers clicks on products, which occur when they pro-
ceed to purchase the product, and produce stochastic model for
order book dynamics in an online market. We begin with statis-
tical analysis of the market price. We nd that the distribution of
prices retailers quote for a particular product at a particular point
in time (divided by the lowest price) follows an exponential distri-
bution, showing the presence of substantial price dispersion. For
example, 20 percent of all retailers quote prices that are more than
50 percent higher than the lowest price. Comparing the probabil-
ity that customers click on a retailer with a particular rank and the
probability that retailers post prices at a particular rank, we show
that both decline exponentially with price rank and that the expo-
nents associated with the probabilities are quite close. This suggests
that the reason why some retailers set prices at a level substantially
higher than the lowest price is that they know that some customers
will choose them even at that high price. Based on these ndings,
we hypothesize that price dispersion in online markets stems from
heterogeneity in customers preferences over retailers; that is, cus-
tomers choose a set of candidate retailers based on their prefer-
ences, which are heterogeneous across customers, and then pick a
particular retailer among the candidates based on the price ranking.
Next, based on this hypothesis for customers buyer behavior, we
introduce and study stochastic model for order book dynamics in
the price conversion website. E-retailers in this model stochastically
place a limit sell order on the website, and stochastically review the
prices that are listed on the website, and revise the selling price.
Customers in this model stochastically pick a particular e-retailer
and buy the product in its e-retailer. Numerical simulation of this
model reveals the price pattern generated by this model has the
realistic features as trivial Hurst exponent, non-autocorrelation of
the price uctuations, non-trivial complex correlation of the sign of
price changes, and fat-tails of the probability function of price uc-
tuations. Finally, we create and test new managerial technologies
about production, inventory investment, pricing, and sales using
this model.
Panel 39 Complex Dynamics Caused By Human Fuzziness: Concept Of
Action Dynamical Traps
Ihor Lubashevsky and Arkady Zgonnikov*
We develop a mathematical description of human fuzzy rational-
ity in terms of action dynamical traps. Human operators controlling
dynamical systems are often incapable of precisely implementing
the desired control strategy. An operator treats the current value
of the control effort as acceptable if it deviates insignicantly from
the optimal value hidden for her. The operator starts correcting
the actions only when she identies that this deviation has be-
come large enough. We propose a non-Newtonian model capturing
the operator fuzzy perception of her own actions generalizing the
previously introduced dynamical trap concept. It deals with the
phase space of a controlled system extended with an independent
phase variable characterizing the operator motivated actions. The
properties of the model are illustrated via the simple example of
oscillators with action dynamical trap. It is demonstrated that such
system can exhibit complex behavior including new type instability
and chaotic dynamics.
Panel 40 Multiscale Detection Of Stable Communities Using Wavelets On
Networks
Nicolas Tremblay* and Pierre Borgnat
Graph wavelets, a recently dened signal processing tool, are
used to tackle a classical complex system problem: community min-
ing in networks. By construction, graph wavelets encode local and
scale-dependent information, providing ego-centered views (one
for each node and each scale) of the network. A careful denition
of the wavelet kernel enables us to use these wavelets for multi-
scale community mining: groups of nodes that have similar ego-
centered views of the network at a given scale will tend to be in
the same community at that scale. Moreover, we propose a method
based on partition stability that estimates the different natural
scales of a network. All in all, given a network, the method de-
tects relevant scales if there are any, and outputs the associated
partitions. We successfully test this method on a graph benchmark
having hierarchical communities.
Panel 41 Critical Infrastructure: Risk And Uncertainty Analysis Method
Tonci Grubic, Liz Varga* and Stephen Varga
The aim of this research was to establish an approach for iden-
tifying and assessing risks and uncertainties in meeting the utility
demand of 22nd century households.
The research is set 100 years from today and develops an anal-
ysis framework which considers the risks and uncertainties at-
tributable to the suite of technologies which meet the utility service
demands of domestic households. A process and analysis frame-
work is developed in which a variety of assessments can be carried
out which recognize the plurality of opinions about the future. A
scenario context is developed in which the risks and uncertainties
of a particular suite of technologies (a vignette) may be evaluated.
Dependencies upon technologies and interdependencies between
technologies are evaluated using critical requirements analysis and
technology criticality analysis. Further comparisons between differ-
ent scenario contexts and different vignettes are also possible. The
approach recognizes that the future is not given and that our evalu-
ation of the future must change regularly through re-evaluation of
both needs and technology evolution.
Panel 42 Tracking Of A Dynamic Graph Using A Signal Theory Approach
: Application To The Study Of A Bike Sharing System
Ronan Hamon*, Pierre Borgnat, Patrick Flandrin and Celine Robardet
Dynamic graphs are useful objects to describe a network which
evolves over time. We propose a signal theory approach to analyze
them which consists of transforming the graph at each time step
into a collection of signals and analyze these signalsusing spectral
decomposition. An inverse transformation is also proposed and
makes it possible to reduce the dimension of the graph and select
the most signicant edges. The method is applied on a real dy-
namic graph based on data about the bike sharingsystem Vlov in
Lyon. The analysis of signals representing the graph highlights the
weekly cycle of rentals and the inverse transformation enables us to
obtain sparser graphs.
Panel 43 Dynamics And Viability Of A Food Web Model With A Detritus
Path
Janusz Szwabinski*
A spatial three level food web model with a closed nutrient cy-
cle will be presented and analyzed via Monte Carlo simulations.
The food web consists of three trophic levels, each of which is pop-
ulated by animals of one distinct species. The basal level species
(called resources, R) corresponds to primary producers in real
ecosystems. The species at intermediate level (consumers, C) relates
to herbivores. It feeds on the resources. The consumers themselves
constitute food for the top level species (predators, P ), which corre-
sponds to carnivores. The remains of the consumers and predators
(detritus, D) provide nutrient for the resources. The time evolution
of the model reveals two asymptotic states: an absorbing one with
all species being extinct, and a coexisting one, in which concen-
trations of all species are non-zero. There are two possible ways
for the system to reach the absorbing state. In some cases the den-
sities increase very quickly at the beginning of a simulation and
then decline slowly and almost monotonically. In others, well pro-
nounced peaks in the R, C and D densities appear regularly before
the extinction. Those peaks correspond to density outbursts (waves)
traveling through the system. Special conditions are required to ob-
serve the waves. Among others, the percolation of the detritus (i. e.
the accumulation of nutrients) is necessary for the waves to emerge.
Our results conrm the top-down control hypothesis (top-level
predators playing an essential role in maintaining the stability of a
food web). Moreover, in contrast to models neglecting the detritus,
a kind of intelligence in the behavior of animals may be benecial
for the survival of the system.
Panel 44 Scaling Law And Anti-Persistent Motion Of Annihilating Defects
In A Lyotropic Liquid Crystal
Renato Ribeiro Guimaraes*, Haroldo Valentin Ribeiro, Hatsumi Mukai,
Paulo Ricardo Garcia Fernandes, Rodolfo Teixeira De Souza, Ervin
Kaminski Kenzi and Renio Dos Santos Mendes
Topological defects can appear whenever there is some type
of ordering. Its ubiquity in nature has been the subject of several
studies, from early Universe to condensed matter. In this work, we
investigated the annihilation dynamics of defects and antidefects
in a lyotropic nematic liquid crystal (ternary mixture of potas-
sium laurate, decanol and deionized-destilated water) using the
polarized optical light microscopy technique for the experimental
measures and statistical physics techniques for the data analysis.
We analyzed Schlieren textures with topological defects produced
due to a symmetry breaking in the transition of the isotropic to
nematic calamitic phase after a temperature quench. As result,
we obtained for the distance D between two annihilating defects
(defect-antidefect pair), as a function of time t remaining for the
annihilation, the scaling law D t
, with = 0.390 and stan-

dard deviation = 0.085. This scaling law is in good quantitative
agreement with previous investigations on the subject. We further
present statistically signicant evidence that the relative velocity
between defect pairs is Gaussian distributed, anti-persistent and
long-range correlated, by using DFA analysis. Beyond that, we
show that simulations of the Lebwohl-Lasher model reproduce
quite well our experimental ndings related to the anti-persistent
behaviour. Our ndings go in the direction to extend experimental
results related to dynamics of defects in liquid crystals since only
thermotropic and polymerics ones had been investigated.
Panel 45 A Theoretical Solution Of The Cooperation Problem In Human
Society
Ignacio Gomez Portillo* and Vicen Mendez
Cooperation is ubiquitous in every form of life, ranging from
genes to societies such as the human one. The emergence of coop-
eration is an evolutionary transition that increases the complexity
of life by forming new biological organisms from other ones. It
is interesting to note that some biological individuals such as the
human beings and the ants have a dual nature, they are part of a
more complex organism (society) at the same time that an organism
more complex than their parts (cells). In this sense, understanding
how cooperation evolves among biological individuals is of great
importance to science. In particular, solving the problem among
genetically unrelated individuals is essential to understand the
roots of our society and, therefore, for a better comprehension of
ourselves. Here, we address this problem by considering structured
populations and the prisoners dilemma game as metaphor of the
social interactions between individuals. In particular, we present a
new general formulation of the cooperation problem together with
a theoretical model that solves the problem by considering three
general features of human societies: individuals with imitation ca-
pacity, a system formed by a growing process and social inuence,
i.e. the behavior of any individuals is inuenced by the behavior
of all their contacts. In this way, we shed light on the cooperation
problem hoping to open a new research eld where a cooperative
system is considered as initial condition in agent based-models.
Panel 46 Agglomeration Emergence And Evolution: A Spatial Microsimu-
lation Approach
Juan Luis Santos*, Jagoda Kaszowska and Tomas Mancha
The aim of this paper is to present a computational approach
based on multi-agent systems to study the agglomeration phenom-
ena. In particular, we develop a computational model which allows
simulating a local economy with heterogeneous enterprises and
individuals who interact in every period of the simulation and then
decide if they should change their position. The model is calibrated
with real data extracted from the center of Spain using microdata of
enterprises in different sectors and spatial data for the location of
individuals.
Panel 47 Amiteba: An Agent-Based Model Of International Trade, En-
trepreneurship And Business Activity
Juan Luis Santos, Jagoda Kaszowska* and Tomas Mancha
The aim of this paper is to present a computational approach
based on multi-agent systems to study the interactions between
entrepreneurship and business activity, and how they affect inno-
vation and economic growth. In particular, we develop a compu-
tational model which allows simulating a set of economies with
heterogeneous enterprises and individuals who interact in every
period of the simulation. Moreover, the performance of every econ-
omy affects the rest through international trade. Firstly the model
is calibrated with real data extracted from several data sources and
then it is used to forecast the economic performance under a set of
scenarios.
Panel 48 Analysing Performance From The Optimal Ex-Post Portfolio
Weights
Maria Teresa Bosch, Joan Montllor-Serrats* and Maria Antonia Tarrazon
The performance of common stocks has received less attention
than mutual funds performance. In this paper we analyse the com-
mon stock performance inside a portfolio, specically a market
index. The measure we propose is the stock weight in the ex-post
optimal portfolio. To obtain it, we apply the Markowitz model on
historical data without the short sales restriction in order not to
prevent negative performances to appear as they are. We propose
a new interpretation of these weights by breaking them down into
risk and return components. Finally, we apply our proposition to
the DJIA in 2012.
Panel 49 Allometric Scaling Of Political Parties
Magda Cardoso*, Haroldo Ribeiro* and Renio Dos Santos Mendes*
By considering the Brazilian cities, we identied patterns in the
number of political party memberships as function of the num-
ber of voters. We obtained a mean allometric trend (power law)
and veried that uctuations around this mean behavior present
constant standard deviation and follow a lognormal distribution.
When these ndings were compared with election results, number
of council and mayoral candidates versus number of voters, we
identied the same statistical regularities. A model that reproduces
these ndings is given. In addition, we found that the allometric
exponent increases as the number of positions to be lled.
Panel 50 Dynamical Robustness Of The Mammalian Cell Cycle Network:
A Mathematical Approach
Marco Montalva*, Eric Goles and Gonzalo A. Ruz
A logical model for the control of the mammalian cell cycle was
presented in [1] where the simulations performed to obtain the dy-
namic of the network, in parallel mode, showed that in the presence
of Cyclin D protein (CycD), any trajectory converges to a unique
limit cycle. From a Biological point of view, this is a favorable situ-
ation for the parallel case, as no spurious cycle is generated. In this
work, we prove mathematically that, in fact, the presence of CycD
is a necessary and sufcient condition to assure that the network
dynamics has no xed point, regardless of the deterministic up-
dating mode considered. We also analyze the other case (absence
of CycD) by using mathematical tools recently developed for the
classication of identical dynamics. A detailed study is presented of
all the attractors that exist for all the deterministic updating modes,
specically, we detail the number of different dynamics, the min-
imum and maximum limit cycle lengths, the average number of
limit cycles by dynamic and the average size of its attraction basins.
[1] A. Faur, A. Naldi, C. Chaouiya, D. Thieffry, Dynamical anal-
ysis of a generic boolean model for the control of the mammalian
cell cycle, Bioinformatics 22 (14) (2006) 124131.
Panel 51 Interaction Of Agents And Asset Price Dynamics
Ciprian Necula* and Walter Farkas
The paper develops a framework which explicitly emphasizes
the effect of the interaction of a large number of micro agents
within nancial markets on asset price dynamics. The stochastic
environment is generated by a random liquidity shock and by the
overreaction of traders to changes in the asset price. By interact-
ing in the nancial markets, traders can change their overreaction
state due to group inuence. This herding behavior generates an
amplication mechanism of the fundamental volatility induced by
the liquidity shock. The resulting stock price dynamics is described
by a stochastic differential equation with non-afne volatility.
Panel 52 Analytic Solution Of A Model Of Language Competition With
Bilingualism And Interlinguistic Similarity
Maria V. Otero-Espinar, Luis F. Seoane*, Juan J. Nieto and Jorge Mira
We present the analytic solution of a model of language coexis-
tence that allows bilingualism. Previous numerical studies of the
model show that coexistence between languages is possible if they
share a community of bilingual speakers. This result is rigorously
conrmed and the possible long-term outcomes of the model are
accurately characterized, rening previous interpretations. Values
of the model parameters of interest beyond language competition
dynamics are researched. Suggestions are made to improve the
model and to contrast real data series of speakers.
Panel 53 Systemic View On Students Learning Process Of Scientic Con-
cepts: A Description In Terms Of Complex Directed Graph
Ismo Koponen*
In learning scientic concepts intuitive, personal concepts are
often mixing with the scientic concepts and proper differentiation
of concepts is difcult. Such concept learning can be approached
from the viewpoint of complex systems in order to understand how
robust and persistent conceptual patterns can emerge out of loosely
connected elemental pieces of the conceptual system. This study
suggests a systemic view, where concepts are seen as complex, dy-
namically evolving structures. The model is represented in form of
directed graph, where concepts are nodes in the graph, connected
to other conceptual elements. The dynamics of the model is driven
by the competition of model utility in explaining the evidence. The
comparisons of model predictions with recent empirical ndings
shows that the model predict and explain many relevant, empir-
ically found features of learning paths, including: 1) Stability of
learned concepts; 2) Changes in concept attributions (ontological
shift) as guided by theoretical knowledge; 3) Evolution of concepts
as driven by model competition with accumulation of evidence.
The results thus show advantages of the systemic view and the
directed graph model based on it.
Panel 54 The Product Space In Economic Complexity
Andrea Tacchella*, Matthieu Cristelli, Rosamaria Crea and Luciano
Pietronero
The country-product matrix can be seen as the adjacency ma-
trix of the bipartite network where countries are connected to the
products that they export. This network can be contracted on the
products layer to build a product-product network (PPnetwork),
where two nodes (products) are connected if at least one country
is an exporter of both of them. The possible information that can
be obtained from this network, are many: it is possible to predict
future scenarios for the developing countries, providing in advance
the strategies of economic diversication. In the same way, it could
be useful for the already industrialized countries to decide new in-
vestment plans in order to remain competitive in these areas or to
become competitive in others. A correct measurement of the eco-
nomic complexity could allow framing the potential of the Nation
also in a medium-term future.
Panel 55 Diffusion And Entropy Production For Multi-Networks With
Fitness Factors
Grzegorz Siudem and Janusz Holyst*
A diffusion process at a special class of multi-networks con-
sisting of weakly coupled networks is analytically solved by an
appropriate separation of time scales and by reducing the system
dynamics to a Markov chain for aggregated variables. A presence
of tness factors describing attractiveness of individual nodes is
taken into account. In the case of system of two coupled networks
an equation analogous to the First Fick Law with an additional
driving force and a corresponding diffusion constant are found.
The entropy production is a sum of entropy changes resulting from
a network heterogeneity and the entropy of the Markov chain. Our
approach can be also used for hierarchical networks where several
different time scales are present.
Panel 56 Superstatistics For Fractional Systems
Bahruz Gadjiev*
The purpose of this paper is to develop a new fractional dynami-
cal approach to superstatistics. Namely, we show that superstatisti-
cal distribution functions can be obtained from stationary solutions
of the generalized Fokker-Planck equation for fractional systems by
using the fractional generalization Bayes theorem. We present spe-
cic examples of such distribution functions for fractional systems.
Panel 57 Clustered Scale Free Networks: Modelling The Processes That
Create Clustering And Power-Law Distributions
Ewan Colman* and Geoff Rodgers
Preferential attachment provides a simple explanation for the
scale-free topology found in many networks. In many cases how-
ever, such as the network of citations in scientic literature, models
are needed that also exhibit high levels of clustering. This talk
introduces the recent literature describing growth processes for
clustered complex networks. In particular, we consider a class of
processes that create scale-free networks with tunable power-law
exponent and clustering coecient, then discuss the implication of
our results for measuring bibliometric data.
Panel 58 Effect Of Limited Stirring At Different Temperatures On The
Belousov Zhabotinsky Reaction
Florian Wodlei* and Mihnea R. Hristea
The effect of a limited stirring phase on the general behavior
of the periodic color change in a closed Belousov Zhabotinsky
(BZ) reaction was investigated systematically. In general the color
change in an unstirred and closed BZ reaction system goes through
different stages (phases) before it dies out after approx. 10 hours.
After a short (approx. 20 min) periodic (initial) phase it evolves into
an aperiodic (chaotic) phase which last for approx. 1 hour. This
phase is followed by a second periodic phase which last up to 8
hours.We found that the effect of stirring on the BZ reaction has
other consequences too apart from the pure homogenization of the
system. A limited stirring phase can result in a shortening or the
complete disappearance of the aperiodic phase mentioned above
which is present in the non-stirred case. In addition this effect of
stirring can be inuenced by changing the temperature - at high
temperature (30
C) the system has to be stirred for only half of the

time as at low temperature (20
C) to get similar effects. In general

the behavior of the system after stirring is more complex if the
temperature is lower.
Panel 59 An Agent-Based Model Of The On Interbank Market
Niccolo Stamboglis* and Giulia Iori
This paper introduces an Agent-Based Model of overnight (ON)
interbank transactions. The economy is populated by banks ex-
changing capital and using both private and public information to
assess the protability of counter-parties bids. With private infor-
mation lenders assess counter-parties reliability given the delay
frequency in previous loans repayments. With public information
lenders assess the counter-party given the rates offered in the mar-
ket during previous periods. The model shows that during periods
of nancial distress an herding effect might occur with banks
relying more on a noisy public information. The presence of this
herding effect might induce to a misallocation of interest rates paid
by single institutions, thus inducing to an increased dispersion of
the interest rates paid in individual transactions. The presence of
interbank preferential lending might reduce the amount of herd-
ing, thus representing a stabilising factor for the interbank system.
The model aims at explaining: i) an increased dispersion of interest
rates following a crisis ii) trust evaporation as an herding effect,
iii) the importance of relationship lending as a stabilising factor
for the interbank market. The model should also be able to predict
banks decision to leave the interbank market, possibly generating
adverse selection and segmentation between domestic and foreign
banks leading to poor market integration.
Panel 60 Structural Complexity Of Web Search Queries Through The
Lenses Of Positionality, Language Models And Networks
Rishiraj Saha Roy, Niloy Ganguly and Monojit Choudhury*
The structure of Web search queries is evolving through a self-
organizing process, whereby millions of Web users query the search
engines for their information needs and modify the queries based
on search engine feedback. On the other hand, the search engines
use querying behavior of the users to serve better results. This bidi-
rectional adaptive process has led to increase in length and com-
plexity of Web search queries, which we quantify and analyze in
this study through three different approaches positional changes
in use of words over time, perplexity of queries and complex net-
work analysis.
Panel 61 A Formal Computer Framework For Linking Multidisciplinary
Multiscale Knowledge. A Case Study On Rodent Population
Dynamics And Management
Jean Le Fur*
We have explored and tried to formalize the joint knowledge
and approaches of a multidisciplinary team of scientists working
on diverse aspects of rodent biology. Within this research eld, the
knowledge provided by each disciplinary viewpoint is a legitimate
part of the concrete observation and should be therefore consid-
ered jointly. A methodological framework has been developed for
expressing the relationships between these diverse items of knowl-
edge in a formal manner. We have established a set of ontologies
for the eld from various types of contributions from scientists
working in the area. This has led to the formal specication of a
simulation platform. We described three case studies using this ap-
proach. Combining viewpoints from different disciplines appears
to be a promising approach to tackling the complexity of a given
research eld.
Panel 62 Google Matrix Analysis Of C. Elegans Neural Network
Vivek Kandiah*, Emma Towlson, Petra Vertes and Dima Shepelyansky
It is argued that the efcient methods of WWW information
ranking and retrieval, launched by Brin and Page with the PageR-
ank algorithm in 1998, will nd useful applications for information
ow analysis in neural networks.
In this work we apply the Google matrix approach to the neural
network of the worm C. elegans for which the connectivity of each
neuron is well established.
The natural ranking captures some of the most important nodes
and highlights their localization and properties via their inverse
participation ratio for Google matrix eigenstates.
The possibility of grouping neurons by function via eigenmode
analysis is also discussed.
Panel 63 Modelling Page-View Dynamics On Wikipedia
Marijn ten Thij, Yana Volkovich, David Laniado and Andreas Kaltenbrun-
ner*
We introduce a model for predicting page-view dynamics of
promotedcontent. The regularity of the content promotion process
on Wikipediaprovides excellent experimental conditions which
favour detailedmodelling. We show that the popularity of an article
featured onWikipedias main page decays exponentially in time if
the circadiancycles of the users are taken into account. Our model
can be explainedas the result of individual Poisson processes and
is validated throughempirical measurements. It provides a simpler
explanation for theevolution of content popularity than previous
studies.
Panel 64 Information Matching Environment Dependent Increase In
Integrated Information ( e)
Larissa Albantakis*, Arend Hintze, Christoph Adami and Giulio Tononi
Within the framework of integrated information theory (IIT) (e.g.
Tononi, 2012) we investigate how evolution by natural selection can
shape the brain circuitry of simple creatures such that the causal
information structure of their brain ts the cause-effect structure of
their environment (information matching). Using simple, adaptive
logic-gate networks (animats), which engage in tasks requiring in-
tegration of different sensorial inputs and past experience, we show
that the animats amount of integrated information grows during
adaptation as a function of the environments complexity. This
increase is accompanied by an increase in the number of causal
concepts developed by the animat.
Panel 65 Structural Properties Of Urban Street Networks Of Varying Popu-
lation Density
Dimitris Maniadakis* and Dimitris Varoutas
In this study the structural properties of urban street networks of
varying population density are analyzed. Samples from one hun-
dred street networks from Greece are collected and the Primal ap-
proach is used to turn GIS data into spatial graphs. It is discovered
that specic measures of street conguration are correlated with
population density. Among others, it is presented that urban street
networks of high population density tend to be relatively more
cost effective compared to low population density networks. The
empirical features found here may be useful for the planning of in-
frastructure networks that use the complex road system as a natural
guide to reach customers, such as transport, telecommunications,
energy or water networks.
Panel 66 Identifying Users Behavior-Based Clusters On Facebook
Orsolya Vasarhelyi* and Balint Toth
In our study we analyze user behavior data obtained through
Facebooks Graph API to describe relationships between political
groups and organizations in Hungary. Since understanding the
original data is non-trivial, we compare results of different tech-
niques with quantitative measures. Our methodology follows a
common network theory approach: We project the user-page bi-
partite network to the mode of Facebook fan pages to nd pair-
wise relationships between them. Then we use popular clustering
techniques to reduce data and ease visualization. We also utilize
network-based measures to identify roles in each community, and
tags of the nodes to identify the role of each cluster. We show that
a p-value-based projection performs remarkably well compared to
other projections.
Panel 67 Using Experience To Promote The Emergence Of Leaders And
Followers
Brent Eskridge*, Elizabeth Valle and Ingo Schlupp
Distinct personality types has been found to lead to the emer-
gence of leaders and followers within large aggregations. Articial
systems, such as robot teams, could benet from the effective lead-
ership, but assigning appropriate personalities is daunting. One
approach is for personalities to be a byproduct of an individuals
experiences, both successful and failed. In this work, we present
predictions on the emergence of distinct personality types through
experience gained in repeated collective movement simulations.
The simulations predict that experience can be used to promote the
emergence of distinct personality types and improved coordination.
Panel 68 Bystander Effects In A Single-Player, Anonymous Contest
Brent Eskridge*, Elizabeth Valle and Ingo Schlupp
Our previous work has shown that experience in a collective
movement task can promote the emergence of distinct personality
types which are used to determine leaders and followers. Although
this approach results in signicantly higher success in initiating
movements, we wish to maximize the effect of a single experience
so as to reduce the time required to achieve high success. In this
work, we present the results of exploratory simulations on the
effects of adding bystander effects to reduce the time needed for
the emergence of distinct personality types. The simulations predict
that contrary to our initial hypothesis, bystander effects inhibited
the emergence of distinct personality types.
Panel 69 A Complexity Approach To The Italian Primary School-Size Dis-
tribution
Riccardo Di Clemente*, Alessandro Belmonte and Sergey Buldyrev
Increasing interest in social phenomena has been devoted in
physics in the last decades. Many scholars have shown surpris-
ingly complex features governing cities, rms, or social groups.
As well as other social complex systems, schools feature power
law distributions, fat tails and properties incomprehensible using
orthodox theories. An italian ofcial dataset with N = 17, 871
primary schools allows us to look at the italian schooling system
from a novel complex perspective.We introduce a denition of
school-size x_i as the number of students currently enrolled in the
school i and we show that P(x_i) can be well approximated by a
lognormal distribution, both at the province level, at regional level,
and aggregating up to a national level. However, we nd that the
lognormal prediction does not t appropriately the tail parts of
P(x_i). Similarly to rms, data suggest that there are too many
small schools on the left side and lesser in the upper tail which ex-
ponentially decays. Despite the fat lower tail has been particularly
targeted in the past years by political interest and lawful attempts,
no rising of the size of the schools in the lower quantiles has been
obtained. Log-normality and exponential tails are consistent with a
Bose-Einstein process with the size-variance relationship governed
by the exponent = 0.5, a tent-shaped distributed growth rate
g_i with power law tails (decreasing at a rate 4).But perhaps
the most interesting feature of P(x_i) is the bimodal shape. We
test bimodality nding that the italian primary school-size distri-
bution is very likely to be a mixture of two laws governing small
schools in the countryside and bigger ones in the cities, respectively.
The bimodality source is studied in the paper by investigating the
complex link between schools and cities addressed by the intro-
duction of a new binning methodology. Despite the number of
schools hni_c are found to be increasing with population p_c in
the bin c at a rate = 0.88, the average of school-size increases for
small cities, then showing an asymptotic behavior with an upper
bound at hxi_c ' 230 students per school. The typical number of
schooling-aged population in the bin c, s_c = hni_c hxi_c dis-
tributes as a power law with coefcient 1 for cities bigger than
10
3
inhabitants. When p_c < 10
3
, s_c dramatically drops meaning
that a smaller fraction of schooling-aged population lives in small
cities with only one school. We show how such a cities have a sin-
gle peaked school-size distribution, conversely from the bigger ones
with more than one school that continue to display a bimodal dis-
tribution because of hospitals, peripheral districts or other complex
factors.
Panel 70 Tag Hierarchies
Gergely Tibely*, Peter Pollner, Tamas Vicsek and Gergely Palla
Tagging is a popular way to categorise large datasets. In contrast
to the traditional hierarchical classication, there are no predened
differences between the tags, and they can be assigned simultane-
ously by several non-expert users, making the process much faster.
However, frequently there is a natural hierarchy of the tags, e.g.
poodle is a special case of dog. Then it is an interesting prob-
lem to extract that natural hierarchy solely from the appearance
of tags. It can also provide practical benets, like quicker naviga-
tion or giving recommendations. Here we describe a method to
reconstruct such a tag hierarchy and apply it to tags from the photo
sharing website Flickr.
Panel 71 Predicting The Fate Of Tasmanian Devils With A Spatial Epi-
demiological Model
Veronika Siska*, Anders Eriksson, Bernhard Mehlig and Andrea Manica
Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD) is an infectious
cancer that threatens the tasmanian devil, the largest surviving
marsupial carnivore, with extinction. I developed a stochastic,
spatial, age-structured SEI model consisting of well-mixed patches
with nearest neighbour interaction: migration and between-patch
contact. I used parameter estimations from the literature, where
available, and t the rest of the parameters to published data. The
model described well the main aspects of the disease dynamics,
except for the high value of equilibrial prevalence. Importantly,
the model predicts that the host is unlikely to become extinct, but
that it will rather persist in low numbers with the cancer becoming
endemic.
Panel 72 Motif Statistics Of Articially Evolved And Biological Networks
Burin Danac*, Mehmet Ali Anl and Ay se Erzan
A population of small Boolean networks evolved under a genetic
algorithm with a tness function favoring short attractor lengths,
exhibits motif statistics similar to those of gene regulatory networks
of E. coli, B. subtilis and S. cerevisiae. The populations selected
for short dynamical attractors exhibit an excess of linear (loopless)
three-motifs and feed-forward loops, relative to a random set of
networks with the same number of nodes and edges. Comparison
with the biological networks studied reveals similar features.
Panel 73 Structural Characterization Of Semantic Memory Networks In
Neurodegenerative Conditions
Elena Abad*, Pablo Villoslada and Jordi Garcia-Ojalvo
Recent studies indicate that optimal access to conceptual mem-
ory involves a complex network architecture of related concepts.
Under that scenario, conceptual network models help us under-
stand better how associative memory works in the retrieval of se-
mantic information. In this work we analyzed verbal uency time
series of natural categories of animals by co-occurrence statistics
(Goi et al. 2011). Data groups were collected from patients suffer-
ing from multiple sclerosis and Alzheimers disease and compared
to controls. By using statistical methods, we assessed the resulting
conceptual networks and inferred correlations between their struc-
tural properties and the two neurodegenerative conditions, with
respect to healthy subjects. Our results hint at the potential of this
type of analysis as a functional biomarker of neurological disease.
Panel 74 Complex-System Behaviour In A Simple Business Model System
Rudolf R.H. Dittrich*
We present an approach where the results of Monte Carlo sim-
ulations are being used for modifying the advertising strategy and
the number of prospective customer contacts of a simplied busi-
ness model system. These modications are in turn capable of qual-
itatively inuencing the emergence or the suppression of complex
system behaviour in several structural parameters of the business.
This includes various scenarios where the revenue may assume
steady, oscillating, or erratic behaviour, all eventually affecting the
business by inducing positive or negative structural changes.
Panel 75 Markov Processes In Patient Disease History
Balint Toth*, Gergely Palla, Gyorgy Surjan and Peter Pollner
A heavily disputed achievement of the information revolution is
that almost every aspect of our life is documented in details, using
enormous databases. However, electronic health records give us the
opportunity to identify individual health risks as well as to forecast
trends in the load on a nations health care system. This possibility
is not yet exploited for two reasons:
The occurrence of diseases are strongly correlated events, there-
fore simple, memoryless Markov processes - typically used by
health care agencies - give insufcient description. Moreover, the
available data is still too sparse, rendering collaborative ltering
methods inefcient. In our study, we utilize network theory to
build a model based on a combination of these two tools and vali-
date it using a database about 10 million people.
Panel 76 Spectral Renormalization For Gaussian Model On A Cayley Tree
Asl Tuncer Ozdemir* and Ayse Erzan
The critical behaviour of the Gaussian model on arbitrary net-
works (square lattice, cubic lattice and the Cayley tree) is studied
by expanding the uctuations of the order parameter in terms of
the eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian, which diagonalizes the
effective Lagrangian. Exact enumaration and nite size scaling re-
sults are shown to be consistent with the results from the spectral
renormalization group recently proposed by Aygn and Erzan [1].
We explicitly show the results for Cayley tree but this consistency is
also valid for square and cubic lattices.
Panel 77 Survival Of Cooperation Induced By Limiting Resources: A Self-
organized Effect
Ruben J. Requejo* and Juan Camacho
Evolution is based on reproduction, mutation and selection,
leading to the survival of the ttest. Selsh individuals (defectors)
who maximize their own benets in any dyadic interaction, are
expected to spread within well-mixed populations at the expense of
cooperative individuals. However, we show here that the existence
of a limiting resource constraining reproduction may trigger a
self-organized state in which cooperative individuals survive in
well mixed populations the most restrictive case. To study this
effect we have developed agent based and analytical models of a
population of self-replicating individuals.
Panel 78 Lateral Inhibition Mediated By Notch Signalling In Drosophila
Intestinal Stem Cells: Analysis Of A Mathematical Model
Rosa Martinez-Corral*, Nara Guisoni, Joaquin de Navascues, Alfonso
Martinez-Arias and Jordi Garcia-Ojalvo
Drosophila intestinal stem cells (ISCs) self-renew and generate
enteroblasts (EB), which differentiate. Experimental data suggests
that ISC division is symmetric and cell fate is determined shortly
afterwards by Delta-Notch signalling, resulting into an ISC-ISC,
EB-EB or ISC-EB pair. We analyse a standard mathematical model
of Delta-Notch signalling between a pair of cells in a biologically
plausible parameter space and show that the Delta-Notch feed-
back is sufcient to determine both symmetric and asymmetric
outcomes. This depends on the parameter values, which reect bio-
logical factors like mutual activation or repression efciency of the
Delta-Notch system.
Panel 79 Negative-Feedback Self-Regulation Contributes To Robust High-
Fidelity Transmembrane Signal Transduction
Maria Angeles Serrano, Manuel Jurado* and Ramon Reigada
Transmembrane cellular signaling pathways are responsible for
linking external stimuli and internal cellular actions. How spatio-
temporal mechanisms, and in particular discretization of the sig-
naling process in locally conned structures, inuence signal
transduction is not fully understood. Recently, transient membrane
nanoclusters concentrating signaling proteins have been proposed
as a new fundamental mechanism to modulate and increase the
efciency and specicity of the MAPK cascade. We address this
issue by presenting a simple motif model for transmembrane cell
signaling that considers minimal signaling events taking place in
spatially distributed membrane domains regulated by a spatio-
temporal dynamics. Based on this model, stochastic simulations
have been performed using realistic kinetic reaction constants. We
nd that complex behaviors attributed to the particular architecture
of signaling pathways (cascades of distributed activations and feed-
back loops) can be also achieved by regulating the spatio-temporal
dynamics of nanoclusters encapsulating much simpler signaling
motifs. More specically, nanocluster ultrasensitivity is regulated
by its lifetime, and this in turn, modulates the delity of global sig-
nal transduction. To explore how cells might have protected the
delity of signal transduction, two scenarios have been compared:
a situation where the nanocluster lifetime is externally regulated,
and the case where it is self-regulated by their local activity. In the
latter case, we report that self-regulation induces robust individual
ultrasensitivity behavior and high delity global responses for a
wide range of kinetic parameters.
The presented approach is generic and modular, making the
results relevant for a variety of signaling processes subjected to a
spatio-temporal dynamics, and can easily accommodate modica-
tions and extensions to tailor it to different specic problems.
Tuesday, September 17th
Chair: J. Buldu
9:00 9:50
Auditorium
Keynote talk
The Link Between Structure and Function in the Brain: The Rest-
ing State
Gustavo Deco (Pompeu Fabra University)
In the absence of stimulation and response demands, the on-
going activity of the brain presents uctuations which are highly
structured in spatial patterns of correlated activity that dene the
so-called Resting State Networks. The origin and signicance
of this resting functional connectivity is still elusive. Even at rest,
the global dynamics of the brain is neither trivial nor intuitive be-
cause involves the link between neuronal dynamics and anatomical
structure. Thus, recently theoretical models that bind structure and
dynamics received a lot of attention because they are fundamen-
tal for studying the relation between the anatomical structure and
resting dynamics. In this talk, we derive and study a model that
is able to express consistently the realistic dynamics of a detailed
spiking and conductance based synaptic model such that the global
brain model is tractable and can be studied in full detail. With this
reduction, we are able to demonstrate that resting state networks
emerge as structured noise uctuations due to linear explorations
of the dynamical repertoire of the system around a stable low r-
ing activity equilibrium state in the presence of latent multi-stable
attractors, i.e. at the edge of a instability due to the underlying non-
linear characteristics of the dynamics. Even more, given that the
dynamics describing the resting state is mainly linear, the model
can be further and crucially simplied into a set of motion equa-
tions for rst- and second order statistics, so that we can get the
functional connectivity semi-analytically and avoiding long lasting
stochastic simulations.
9:50 10:40
Auditorium
Keynote talk
Crackling noise: the sound of complex systems
Stefano Zapperi (CNR-IENI)
The response of materials to external perturbations is often af-
fected by the presence of structural defects and uctuations leading
to crackling noise. While representing a nuisance in many practical
applications, crackling noise can yield important information about
the microscopic processes ruling the behavior of the system. The
intermittent scale-invariant nature of crackling noise is often related
to an underlying non-equilibrium critical phenomenon. I discuss
examples of crackling noise in magnetic hysteresis, in the plastic
deformation of micron-scale samples and in the aggregation of
proteins in the cell, a process relevant for many neurodegenerative
diseases.
tuesday, september 17th 85
Chair: M. San Miguel
11:30 11:50
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Scientic Success: The Story Of Your Big Hit
Roberta Sinatra*, Dashun Wang, Chaoming Song, Pierre Deville and
Albert-Laszlo Barabasi
As individuals who write scientic papers, most of us are keenly
interested in questions like which is the current impact of my
work?, when will I publish my highest impact paper?, Is my
scientic impact increasing or declining? and, probably most in-
tensely, how do I achieve success?. A precise answer to these
questions requires a detailed analysis of many different kinds of in-
formation, that might not be always available or quantiable. How-
ever an insight into the matter can be given by data about paper
citations, which are often used as proxy of impact and of attribution
of scientic credits. In this work, we study the scientic careers, in
terms of publications and relative citation record, of
Lij3500 physi-
cists active for at least twenty years between 1960 and 2010, and
identify the statistical patterns associated with scientic success.
More specically, we investigate the correlations between quality of
papers (quantied by measures based on citation counts) and time
of their publication, and focus on the characteristics of the highest
impact paper in each scientists career. Our ndings show that in-
deed "Quality Begets Success", since successful papers are usually
forerun by a higher-than-average early impact. However, when it
comes to predict success at the level of an individual, that is to an-
ticipate when a scientist is going to produce his/her highest im-
pact work, all scientic careers appear dramatically unpredictable.
By considering also the effects of productivity, we provide a portrait
of outlier scientists and give hints on what breeds scientic success.
11:50 12:10
Auditorium
Contributed talk
The Role Of Hidden Inuentials In The Diffusion Of Online In-
Formation Cascades
Raquel Alvarez*, Javier Borge and Yamir Moreno
In a diversied context with multiple social networking sites,
heterogeneous activity patterns and different user-user relations,
the concept of information cascade is all but univocal. Despite
the fact that such information cascades can be dened in different
ways, it is important to check whether some of the observed pat-
terns are common to diverse contagion processes that take place
on modern social media. Here, we explore one type of information
cascades, namely, those that are time-constrained, related to two
kinds of socially-rooted topics on Twitter. Specically, we show that
in both cases cascades sizes distribute following a fat tailed dis-
tribution and that whether or not a cascade reaches system-wide
proportions is mainly given by the presence of so-called hidden
inuentials. These latter nodes are not the hubs, which on the con-
trary, often act as rewalls for information spreading. Our results
are important for a better understanding of the dynamics of com-
plex contagion and, from a practical side, for the identication of
efcient spreaders in viral phenomena.
12:10 12:30
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Cooperation In Human Societies: Theory And Experiments
Carlos Gracia-Lazaro*, Jose Cuesta, Angel Sanchez and Yamir Moreno
Understanding how cooperative behavior emerges in different
contexts is one of the major questions of modern science. The pres-
ence of cooperation in hostile environments, that is, when selsh
behavior provides higher individual tness than cooperation, has
been studied in many areas including microbiology, species evo-
lution, population dynamics, economy and sociology. Theory of
evolution is based on natural selection, which in turn is based on
the survival-of-the-ttest rule. The limited resources available in
a habitat promotes competition between organisms of the same or
different species that have to struggle to survive; the nal purpose
of this competition is to provide offspring. In such competition, co-
operation is, at least in the rst instance, faced to individual interest
of survival and reproductive success. Nevertheless, cooperation
and even altruism have evolved and persist, and evolutionists have
studied this question extensively for the last 150 years. Cooperation
between entities pursuing their own ends is key to understanding
biological issues, but also to analyze human societies and the re-
lationship between its individuals.Moreover, during the last few
years researchers from different backgrounds have been attracted
to study socio-economic systems; in particular, much research has
been devoted to strategic interactions on complex networks. In this
context, game theory has proved to be a powerful tool to study
cooperation in human societies, and it has been established that
imitative evolutionary dynamics lead to very different outcomes
depending on the details of the network. However, the statement
that underlying network structure enhances cooperation in human
interactions is based on some assumptions, namely that personal
strategies depends on neighbors pay-offs. Although network reci-
procity mechanism in humans has been deeply studied in the last
twenty years, the conclusions are in general contradictory, because
the strategies are usually a hypothesis of the models without ex-
perimental support.Instead of assuming that people play follow-
ing one of the usual strategies, we analyzed the problem taken as
starting point the results of recent experiments on the behavior
of small human populations in iterated prisoners dilemma (PD)
games. These works showed that people do not take into account
the neighbors payoffs, but, instead, they consider the cooperation
level in their neighborhood. We have studied mathematically the
implications of such strategies in heterogeneously-connected large
populations. Specically, we solved analytically the mean-eld
case and compared the theoretical results with data obtained from
numerical simulations made in three network topologies: regu-
lar lattice, homogeneous and scale-free graphs. This comparison
show that cooperation level is exactly the same, regardless of the
network structure, which means that when one takes into account
the real behavior of people observed in the experiments, both at
the mean-eld level and on different networks the observed level
of cooperation is the same. The consequences of this prediction are
very important, because, if eventually conrmed by experiments,
they will allow to discard the network reciprocity mechanism in
human prisoners dilemma-like situations.In order to validate (or
refute) the above mentioned theoretical nding, we have performed
a large-scale experiment. Specically, we have designed a setup in
which 1,229 human subjects were placed in either a square lattice
or a scale-free network, and for more than 50 rounds, they played
multi-player PD game with each of their k neighbors, taking only
one action (either to cooperate or defect). The experiment was si-
multaneously carried out on two different virtual networks: a lattice
with k = 4 and periodic boundary conditions (625 subjects) and a
heterogeneous network with a fat-tailed degree distribution (604
subjects). Our experiment shows that, regarding human behavior,
the underlying topology does not have any inuence in the ob-
served cooperation level, that is, the cooperation levels observed in
a regular lattice and in a heterogeneous network are indistinguish-
able. Moreover, the behavior of subjects appears to be independent
of their connectivity. Our experiment conrm that most people fol-
low the strategy shown in the above mentioned previous works,
consisting of the imitation of neighbors actions with a probability
that depends on their frequency. Accordingly, the experimental
results conrm the theoretical prediction, closing the cycle of the
scientic method. These results may be applied to promoting coop-
eration in real systems; the study suggests that it is more efcient
to focus efforts on encouraging cooperation individually, instead of
wasting resources on improving network structure.
12:30 12:50
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Link To People You Meet And Visit People You Know: A Cou-
pled Model Of Human Mobility And Tie Formation
Przemyslaw Grabowicz, Jose J. Ramasco, Bruno Gonalves and Victor M
Eguiluz
While several models have been developed to describe human
mobility and to simulate and study the growth and evolution of so-
cial networks, there is lack of studies that couple social interactions
and human mobility models.
In this paper we introduce a new model that bridges this gap by
explicitly considering the impact of mobility on the formation of
social ties. The model is validated against a large set of geo-located
data from online social networks. Using a simple benchmark, we
are able to demonstrate that the model is able to reproduce vari-
ous network and geographical statistical properties of the system
such as: i) distance between connected users, ii) connected compo-
nent size and average clustering, iii) social overlap variation with
distance, iv) reciprocity and triangle closure versus the distance.
Each ingredient of the model is carefully investigated to identify its
relevance and physical interpretation.
12:50 13:10
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Topological Properties Of Time-Integrated Activity Driven Net-
works
Romualdo Pastor-Satorras* and Michele Starnini
We consider the theoretical analysis of a recently proposed class
of temporal social network models, the so-called activity-driven
network models, linking human social activity with network topol-
ogy. Starting from a mapping of the activity driven models to the
general class of static network models with hidden variables, we
present a theoretical framework that allows for the solution of dif-
ferent forms of activity distribution characterizing these models.
We present the general form of different topological observables
as a function of the activity distribution and discuss their conse-
quences with respect to dynamical processes, such as percolation,
running on top of such networks.
13:10 13:30
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Social Inuence And Collective Opinion Dynamics
Mehdi Moussaid*, Juliane Kammer, Pantelis Pipergias Analytis and
Hansjoerg Neth
In our strongly interconnected society, social inuence plays a
prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding
in cultural markets, and the spread of ideas and innovations. Yet,
the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood,
and existing models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we
report a laboratory experiment showing how participants revise
their initial judgment after being exposed to the opinion of others.
After measuring the strength of peer inuence, we derived a model
of opinion change, and study the collective dynamics of opinion
change in large groups of people. Simulations allow identifying
attractors of opinion that drive the emerging collective opinion.
Chair: A. Sanchez
11:30 11:50
Room A1
Contributed talk
Using Friends As Sensors To Detect Global-Scale Contagious
Outbreaks
Manuel Garcia-Herranz, Esteban Moro*, Manuel Cebrian, Nicholas A
Christakis and James H. Fowler
Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale
online data for improved detection of contagious outbreaks. How-
ever, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available
online make global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods
do not exploit the local network structure to identify key nodes for
monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of
information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network
and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection,
but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. We show that a ran-
dom friend group of a small random fraction of Twitter nodes is
more central in the network, allowing detection of viral outbreaks
of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could
with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. These results suggest
that local monitoring is not just more efcient, it is more effective,
and it may be applied to monitor similar contagious processes in
global-scale networks.
11:50 12:10
Room A1
Contributed talk
The Socio-Epistemic Dynamics Of Scientic Research
Elisa Omodei*, Jean-Philippe Cointet and Thierry Poibeau
How are social and epistemic structures driving future interac-
tions in scientic research? We analyzed a very large data set of sci-
entic publications (APS dataset) to investigate the social dynamics
of collaboration network and the epistemic network of PACS codes
co-occurrences network. In particular we show that the epistemic
network built through concepts co-occurrences in articles has a non
trivial structure characterized by a scale-free degree distribution
and a high value of modularity, produced by linking probability
mechanisms that depend on local similarity factors. We empirically
show that those local epistemic dynamics are both linked to past so-
cial and epistemic structures. Moreover we show that the evolution
of the social network depends also on epistemic factors and vice-
versa, indicating that the two networks mutually inuence their
evolution and are thus co-evolving over time.
12:10 12:30
Room A1
Contributed talk
Testing The Goodwin Growth-Cycle Macroeconomic Dynamics In
Brazil
Marcelo Ribeiro* and Newton Moura Jr.
This paper discusses the empirical validity of Goodwins (1967)
macroeconomic model of growth with cycles by assuming that the
individual income distribution of the Brazilian society is described
by the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD). This is formed by the
combination of the Gompertz curve, representing the overwhelm-
ing majority of the population ( 99%), with the Pareto power law,
representing the tiny richest part ( 1%). In line with Goodwins
original model, we identify the Gompertzian part with the work-
ers and the Paretian component with the class of capitalists. Since
the GPD parameters are obtained for each year and the Goodwin
macroeconomics is a time evolving model, we use previously de-
termined, and further extended here, Brazilian GPD parameters,
as well as unemployment data, to study the time evolution of these
quantities in Brazil from 1981 to 2009 by means of the Goodwin
dynamics. This is done in the original Goodwin model and an ex-
tension advanced by Desai et al. (2006). As far as Brazilian data
is concerned, our results show partial qualitative and quantitative
agreement with both models in the studied time period, although
the original one provides better data t. Nevertheless, both models
fall short of a good empirical agreement as they predict single cen-
ter cycles which were not found in the data. We discuss the specic
points where the Goodwin dynamics must be improved in order
to provide a more realistic representation of the dynamics of eco-
nomic systems.Published in Physica A, 392 (2013) 2088-2103e-print
arXiv:1301.1090
12:30 12:50
Room A1
Contributed talk
Structure And Dynamics Of The Bitcoin Transaction Graph
Kay Hamacher*, Stefan Katzenbeisser and Micha Ober
Bitcoin is a decentralized, digital currency that is built upon a
peer-to-peer (P2P) network. Monetary transactions are secured by a
proof-of-work concept originating in cryptography. Due to this ba-
sis, all transaction need to be known to all participants. Therefore,
the bitcoin transaction data set is a rich, complete, and consistent
data set of a particularly interesting social network, namely one of
economic transactions. In this submission, I want to discuss recent
results obtained in a comprehensive study on the structure and the
time evolution of the transaction graph.
12:50 13:10
Room A1
Contributed talk
Bootstrapping Back The Climate With Self-Organization
Vitor V. Vasconcelos*, Flavio Pinheiro, Francisco C. Santos and Jorge M.
Pacheco
We study the impact of different types of sanctioning mech-
anisms in deterring non-cooperative behavior in climate negoti-
ations. To this end, we introduce punishment in a public goods
dilemma devised to address climate change agreements in the
presence of risk. We describe the dynamics of collective action sim-
ulating a nite populations of selsh individuals and show that a
signicant increase in cooperation is attained whenever individ-
uals are given the opportunity to create institutions that punish
free riders. We further show how the extent of sanctioning success
and prevalence depends sensitively on the overall perception of the
risk associated with the effects of climate change. Moreover, our
model distinguishes a polycentric approach, involving multiple in-
stitutions from a single, global one, an show which provides better
conditions for cooperation to thrive.
13:10 13:30
Room A1
Contributed talk
Etfs And Commodity Trading In Times Of Crisis
Torsten Heinrich*
The current work investigates the development of commodity
prices before, during, and after the 2007-09 nancial crisis using
daily closing price changes in 58 commodity and resource ETFs
(exchange-traded funds) as a proxy. The considered price changes
are found to follow either power law or exponential distributions
with agriculture and base metal related funds being more difcult
to t. The power law exponents are estimated for both the whole
time series and one-year intervals. The conference presentation
will furthermore offer an agent-based model to complement the
empirical analysis.
Chair: S. Gomez
11:30 11:50
Room A2
Contributed talk
Networks Of Neighboring Linguistic Groups
Jose A. Capitan*, Jacob B. Axelsen and Susanna Manrubia
Human linguistic groups exhibit distinctive quantitative pat-
terns. Among them, the distribution of home ranges areas and
the number of speakers of each group have been shown to follow
log-normal distributions. In this contribution we analyze the topo-
logical properties of regional networks of neighboring linguistic
groups. We show that such networks are topologically different
from classical families of networks. In particular, degree distribu-
tions are well tted by log-normal functions. In addition, we pro-
pose a mechanistic network model to generate such networks based
solely on the distribution of areas. We nd a very good agreement
with empirical data.
11:50 12:10
Room A2
Contributed talk
Pattern Formation And Control In Networks Of Bistable Ele-
ments
Nikos Kouvaris*
Traveling fronts and stationary localized patterns in bistable
reaction-diffusion systems have been broadly studied for classical
continuous media and regular lattices. Analogues of such non-
equilibrium patterns are also possible in networks. Here, we con-
sider traveling and stationary patterns in bistable one-component
systems on random Erds-Rnyi, Barabsi-Albert and hierarchical
tree networks. As revealed through numerical simulations, traveling
fronts exist in network-organized systems. They represent waves
of transition from one stable state into another, spreading over the
entire network. The fronts can furthermore be pinned, thus forming
stationary structures. While pinning of fronts has previously been
considered for chains of diffusively coupled bistable elements, the
network architecture brings about signicant differences. An im-
portant role is played by the degree (the number of connections)
of a node. For regular trees with a xed branching factor, the pin-
ning conditions are analytically determined. Furthermore, effects
of feedbacks on pattern formation phenomena are investigated.
Localized stationary activation patterns, which resemble stationary
spots in continuous media, have been observed in the networks.
The active nodes in such a pattern form a subnetwork, whose size
and structure can be controlled by the feedback intensity.[1] N. E.
Kouvaris, H. Kori and A. S. Mikhailov, Traveling and pinned fronts
in bistable reaction-diffusion systems on networks. PLoS ONE 7(9):
e45029 (2012).[2] N.E. Kouvaris and A. S. Mikhailov, Feedback-
induced stationary localized patterns in networks of diffusively
coupled bistable elements. EPL (Europhysics Letters) 102, 16003
(2013).
12:30 12:50
Room A2
Contributed talk
An Exploratory Application Of Two Methodologies To Compare
Complex Networks
Nuno Caseiro* and Paulo Trigo
With the present work we propose to address this gap by ap-
plying a measure, Distance Ratio inspired in system analysis and
differential networks used in biology and genetic maps.
As a real and practical application is applied to compare differ-
ent networks representing mental models of emergency managers.
These structures are obtained by relating concepts of this eld
gathered by inquiry from practitioners. It can be used to verify dif-
ferences among a shared mental model and the individual ones or
to test the similarities between professionals of different emergency
agents.
12:50 13:10
Room A2
Contributed talk
Relating Reaction Network Structure To Thermodynamic Dissipa-
tion
Jakob Fischer*, Axel Kleidon and Peter Dittrich
Reaction networks are widely used in systems biology for de-
scribing metabolic and regulatory processes. Despite the impor-
tance of thermodynamic disequilibrium for living systems, be-
cause of missing data the general thermodynamic properties of
reaction networks are poorly understood. We are generating arti-
cial reaction networks and simulate them under thermodynamic
constraints. By looking at the steady state of the networks we are
comparing their thermodynamic and topological structure. Our
research especially focuses on using different complex network
topologies and on the effect of varying the strength of the thermo-
dynamic force driving the system to disequilibrium.
13:10 13:30
Room A2
Contributed talk
Clustering Coefcients And Detectability Of Community Struc-
ture In Networks
Jeremi Ochab*
We show that mean clustering coefcient (MCC) of a graphindi-
cates detectability of community structure,since it effectively mea-
sures skewness of the graphs eigenspectrum.The approximate
value of MCC for uncorrelated graphs allows to compute an ap-
proximate detectability limit.It can be calculated solely on the basis
of a degree sequence, without any comparison with an ensem-
ble of randomized networks.We provide numerical data for GN
benchmarks (consistent with recent theoretical results based on
eigenspectra),and for undirected and directed LFR benchmarks.
Chair: G. Deffuant
11:30 11:50
Room A3
Contributed talk
Cascade Of Travel Duration Delays In A Rapid Transport System
Erika Fille Legara, Christopher Monterola*, Terence Hung and Gary Lee
Rapid mass transit systems (RTS) are becoming the foremost
public transportation mode worldwide and recent literature indi-
cates that as a city gets bigger and more organized, it is more likely
to develop a RTS (Roth et al., 2012). Aside from the fact that RTSs
help in reducing trafc congestions along road networks, they offer
a high-frequency of service, catering to a greater volume of public
commuters in higher velocity at a given time. In Singapore, for ex-
ample, the RTS accounts for more than 2 million journeys per day
across its 133 RTS stations. These journeys are estimated to involve
around 20% of the entire countrys 5.3 million population daily
and are envisioned to grow in the coming years. Given the socio-
economic benets of having a RTS in a bustling city, it is crucial
that stakeholders are able to ensure its reliability and resilience to
disruptions and other unforeseeable events. It has been shown that
damages and disruptions in transport systems do not only affect
the duration of travel of commuters; worse, they can generate un-
necessary economic costs that can potentially harm local economies
through cascades of system failures.In this work, we set up an
agent-based model of the Singapore RTS and construct scenarios by
adjusting the train carrying capacity parameter in the simulations.
We specically monitor the effects of the variations in the durations
of travel of the RTS commuters. We rst report on the key statistical
features of the RTS with regard to travel demand. Various origin-
destination (OD) pairs within the Singapore RTS are analyzed,
which show that journeys utilizing these pairs exhibit a power-law
distribution with an exponent of -1, i.e. there exist a small number
of station pairs that critically serve a large number of commuters
(see Figure 1). The statistical features of the RTS, specically the
arrival times of commuters in stations, are then used to create an
agent-based model that can infer the duration-of-travel distribution
of specic OD pairs. The simulation results are validated by com-
paring them with the actual recorded times of travel of commuters,
using a weeks worth of travel data. Figure 2 shows that the dura-
tion of travel distributions obtained using the ABM and the empir-
ical data statistics for different OD-pairs are visually in agreement.
To statistically asses our model, we use Linfoots criteria of delity
F, structural content SC, and correlation quantity Q (Huck et al.,
1985, Crisologo et al., 2010) that essentially quantify the difference
in the information content of two prole distributions. The delity
F looks at the general similarity and/or shape of the prole and
is essentially 1-NMSE, SC measures the relative sharpness of the
peaks, while Q evaluates the alignment of crests and troughs. Two
distributions are identical if F=SC=Q=1. We obtain the following
mean values F=0.91, SC=0.94, and Q=0.96, suggesting that our sim-
ulation strongly agrees with the empirical data.The exibility of the
model allows us to explore certain population-related phenomeno-
logical scenarios that are deemed signicant to the city. Here, we
investigate episodes wherein the train carrying capacity C is varied.
Simulation results reveal the existence of an abrupt transition in
the duration-of-travel delays of commuters at a threshold capacity
value C (see Figure 3). This C essentially forces the system to a
cascade of exponentially increasing cumulative duration-of-travel
delay. The idea of a quantiable threshold train capacity has prag-
matic implications especially to the city government and its urban
and transportation planners. Knowing the actual critical value of C
allows RTS stakeholders to plan ahead and have foresight on situ-
ations involving overloading of trains and overcrowding of station
platforms. What our results show is that once the threshold load-
ing capacity is ranged over, even a small addition in the number
of commuters who cannot board the trains can already cause an
avalanche of delays to other commuters in the system.
11:50 12:10
Room A3
Contributed talk
Socially Sensed Trajectories: Detecting Urban Mobility Patterns
And Anomalies
Lorenzo Gabrielli, Salvatore Rinzivillo, Francesco Ronzano* and Daniel
Villatoro
The identication and analysis of the patterns that characterize
the interactions of citizens with and within the urban environ-
ment are attracting growing attention, becoming object of several
investigations involving expertise ranging from data science to ur-
banism, social science, demography and policy making. The core
factors that enable signicant and innovative analyses of urban mo-
bility patterns are the availability of rich and updated sources of
city-related data as well as the set of approaches chosen to merge,
mutually enrich and mine these data sets in order to disclose new
information and insights.
In this paper, we propose and experiment new techniques to de-
tect urban mobility patterns and anomalies by analyzing trajectories
mined from publicly available geo-positioned social media traces
left by the citizens (namely Twitter). In particular, we ground our
analyses on the collection of the geo-located tweets characterizing a
specic urban area over time. Each Tweet is semantically enriched
with information concerning both the classication of its author
among local and tourist, obtained from DBPedia, as well as the ref-
erence to the most-likely venue where the same tweet could have
been issued, retrieved from Foursquare
We exploit mobility data mining techniques to aggregate simi-
lar trajectories thus pointing out hot spots of activities and ows
of people together with their variations over time. We also exploit
social network analysis methods to automatically identify rele-
vant ows that present signicant changes over time. In order to
unveil the meaning of the detected patterns of urban activity, we
enrich trajectories with semantic information: to this purpose we
link the origin and destination of each trajectory to the most-likely
Foursquare venue where the related tweets were generated, thus
characterizing each trajectory with the semantics of the venues
categories. This information provides us with a powerful instru-
ment to ease data interpretation. Indeed we manage to point out
and compare over time the predominant activities that characterize
urban life both on a city-wide scale as well as by considering more
ne grained aggregations of trajectories like those ones identied
by trajectory clusters or by administrative divisions.
In this context, we introduce and rely on the concept of seman-
tic origin-destination matrix built considering the categories of
Foursquare associated to the origin and the destination of each
trajectory and useful to summarize the semantics of the activities
characterizing a set of trajectories. We rely on the comparison of
semantic origin-destination matrices over different time lapses
to characterize trends and anomalies of urban activity patterns.
Moreover, when performing the analyses just described, we con-
sider the partition of tweets and thus trajectories among local and
tourist-related ones in order to better target part of our analytical
approaches to one of these two communities.
We apply and validate the presented trajectory mining ap-
proaches by collecting and analyzing the trajectories built from
the geo-positioned tweets gathered in Barcelona during the Mobile
World Congress 2012 (MWC2012), one of the greatest events that af-
fected the city in 2012. From the classication of trajectories across
tourist and local ones, we can appreciate how touristic ow triples
the week of the MWC2012. Thanks to the combination of mobility
data mining techniques and social network analytics, it is possible
to localize the hot spot of activities in the city, thus noticing how
their position points out the locations of the MWC2012. In the same
way, by considering the semantic analysis of predominant urban
activities, carried out by means of the semantic origin-destination
matrix, we can point out how the MWC2012 has affected the typol-
ogy of activities performed in Barcelona: in particular trajectories
involving locations related to professional activities considerably
increase their relevance during the MWC2012 week thus identifying
the professional nature of the event. To conclude, we also consider
the comparison of the semantic characterization of clusters of trajec-
tories across the three weeks analyzed by nding activity patterns
commons to the attendants of the MWC2012.
Summarizing, by means of this paper we have identied and
provided an initial evaluation to several approaches useful to mine
relevant patterns and anomalies concerning urban nobility by col-
lecting and aggregating publically available information from op-
portunistic data sources.
12:10 12:30
Room A3
Contributed talk
Proxy Networks For Human Mobility In Europe: The Impact On
Epidemic Modeling
Michele Tizzoni, Paolo Bajardi, Adeline Decuyper, Guillaume Kon Kam
King, Christian Schneider, Vincent Blondel, Zbigniew Smoreda, Marta
Gonzalez and Vittoria Colizza
In this work, we evaluate the adequacy of mobile phone data as
a description of commuting patterns in Europe and we assess their
impact when used as a proxy for human movements in epidemic
models. To this aim, we compare the outcomes of stochastic epi-
demics simulated on a metapopulation model that is based either
on the empirical commuting networks extracted from ofcial cen-
sus surveys or on the commuting networks extracted from three
high-resolution mobile phone datasets, in three different European
countries. We nd that the general epidemic behavior of the mo-
bile phone networks and the census networks shows a good and
statistically signicant agreement. Our results conrm the valuable
role of mobile phone data to estimate human movements which can
be integrated into spatial epidemic models to provide support to
public health policies.
12:30 12:50
Room A3
Contributed talk
Resilience, Vulnerability And Adaptive Capacity To Environ-
mental Change In A Dynamical System, And Application To A
Nonlinear Lake Model
Charles Rouge*, Jean-Denis Mathias and Guillaume Deffuant
We use the mathematical framework of viability theory to give
operational denitions to the concepts of resilience, vulnerability
and adaptive capacity in a context of environmental change. These
three concepts are widely used to describe the problem of manag-
ing a social and / or ecological system submitted to such a change.
Resilience and vulnerability are two complementary notions which
respectively refer to the possibility of maintaining or recovering
a set of properties and functions after a disturbance, and to the
cost of losing them, whether temporarily or permanently. Adap-
tive capacity, which is concerned with the capacity of the system
to cope with or recover from a change, is an essential determinant
of both resilience and vulnerability. The operational denitions we
propose can apply to any stochastic controlled discrete-time dy-
namical system, and are especially useful for nonlinear systems.
The goal is to use these concepts to describe the adaptation of the
management strategy of a social-ecological system in the presence
of environmental change. Such a strategy must keep or recover
the desirable properties of that system. To dene it, we thereby in-
troduce a concept of baseline management, using a subset of the
state space for which the decision taken is uniform and stationary.
This baseline decision is implemented provided such management
does not endanger the systems core properties. Thus, this is the
way it is managed unless these properties are threatened, lead-
ing to an emergency situation, for which other decisions must be
taken. Stochastic viability theory then uses stochastic dynamic pro-
gramming to nd the baseline strategies, which both incorporate
the baseline management and maximize the viability of the sys-
tem: its probability of maintaining its desirable properties over the
planning period. The set of states for which this probability tops a
given condence level is called the stochastic viability kernel, and
such strategies are called viable baseline strategies if the states for
which the baseline decision is taken belong to the stochastic viabil-
ity kernel. Indeed, the latter represents the set of safe states, and
the baseline decision only applies to such states. Viable baseline
strategies are valid under given environmental conditions, i.e., un-
der a given set of system parameters.When environmental change
occurs, the baseline strategy may not be adequate to allow for the
continuing functioning of the system, and may need to be modied.
Adaptive management is simply dened as a change of the set of
the available baseline strategies. It is not instantaneous, and is char-
acterized by its rate as well by its total magnitude. Thus, it consists
in a temporal sequence in which the set of available baseline strate-
gies changes at each time step. In this context, dynamic program-
ming can be used to maximize resilience, dened as the probability
to eventually reach the stochastic viability kernel of a new viable
baseline strategy. It can also be used to minimize vulnerability, a
statistic dened on the distribution of possible costs. Adaptive ca-
pacity then measures the impact of adaptive management in terms
of resilience and vulnerability. We provide an illustration to a non-
linear model of lake eutrophication, in which phosphorus inputs to
the lake originating from economic activities have to be limited to
keep it in a desirable, clear water state. Adaptive management of
an abrupt shift in the lake dynamics through a reduction in phos-
phorus inputs illustrates how our framework helps determine the
determinants adaptive capacity. Results suggest that strengthening
adaptation rates is more important than reducing the lag in im-
plementing adaptation to a change of the lake system, and show
nonlinear shifts of the resilience and adaptation depending on the
values of the adaptation parameters.
12:50 13:10
Room A3
Contributed talk
The Coming Back Of Rational-Comprehensive Planning
Giovanni Rabino*
Over the last fty years, urban planning theories and practices
have come to several turning points: from physical planning (in the
50s) to systemic planning (in the 60s) to political planning (radical
planning, social and advocacy planning, new humanism, etc. in the
70s and 80s) ... and so on.
After the decline of the last turn in the 90s (the communicative,
multi-agent planning approaches rooted to a Post-modern philo-
sophical viewpoint), at a rst sight, today planning practices seem
a mess of disjointed (if not conicting) activities: physical plan-
ning (e.g. archistars and engineers mega-structures), actions on
culture (exhibitions, events, tourism etc. as catalysts of the urban
wellbeing), smart cities prospects (voluntary participatory gover-
nance supported by ICT), deregulation policies (in a lasseiz-fair
self-organizing economic setting), la decrescita felice (happy de-
growth, mainly linked to sustainability - in any sense - issues).
In the paper, to sort out this mess putting all these facts in a
logical frame, we argue the hypothesis that urban planning is turn-
ing around, towards (some kind of) rational and comprehensive
approach based on two principles: an ontological new realism
(hence, chance for rationality and objectivity); and a gnoseologi-
cal holism (hence a comprehensive perspective), the complexity
science namely.
As to the new realism, we draw the attention to this philo-
sophical position (according to the viewpoints of several leading
philosophers, like Putnam, Searle, Eco, Ferraris ...) and to the rea-
sons of its ri-emergence.
We furthermore point out the signs of a new realist attitude in
planning: e. g. the increase of evaluation practices, use of indicators
and measures (with an attention to their ontologies), focus on the
physical aspects of the urban systems (architectures, morphologies,
technologies, natural resources ...).
As to the complexity science, its no use explaining what it is;
its more worth producing the evidence of the slow but constant
spread of these new ideas among ordinary people and planners:
e.g. focus on networks, dealing with incertitude (extreme or rare
events, sudden or irreversible changes, ...).
Then, adopted the neo-rational-comprehensive planning stand-
point (the smart planning , if you like this denition, but where
smart means much more than using new ICT; it is a higher level
of social intelligence) we feature the new rationality and compre-
hensiveness:
+ a naturalized, complex and non human-centred rationality
(three aspects duly explained in the paper);
+ a synergetic and cognitive comprehensiveness (two aspects
duly explained in the paper).
Finally, we make an attempt to list the peculiarities of this new
planning style, both in principles (e.g.: think globally, act locally;
from policy intelligence to intelligent policies; ...) and in practices
(e.g: the crucial role of the socio-technical planning system in the
success of planning itself). The mess of current planning practices
is related to the frame we propose; and, accordingly, a few hints on
how to improve these practices (rstly, by the consciousness of the
new realist, objective feeling) conclude the paper.
Chair: R. Guimera
11:30 11:50
Room A4
Contributed talk
Betweenness Preference: Quantifying Correlations In The Topo-
logical Dynamics Of Temporal Networks
Rene Ptzner, Ingo Scholtes, Antonios Garas, Claudio J. Tessone and
Frank Schweitzer
We discuss about a recently introduced temporal-topological
feature called betweenness preference, and we show its existence
in empirical networks. Betweenness preference is not visible in the
weighted time-aggregated representation of dynamical networks,
and describes the tendency of nodes to preferentially connect - in
a temporal sense - particular pairs of neighbors. This preferential
connectivity limits the transitivity of temporal networks, affects the
topology of time-respecting paths, and we show that neglecting
it leads to wrong conclusions about the evolution of dynamical
processes.
11:50 12:10
Room A4
Contributed talk
Evolving Complex Networks: A Model For The Integration/Segregation
Phenomena
Juan Antonio Almendral Sanchez*, Vanesa Avalos Gaytan, Satu Elisa
Schaeffer and Stefano Boccaletti
We study the integration/segregation problem from the view-
point of complex networks, considering that the network topology
is not static but there is an adaptive mechanism acting on the links.
Our goal is to identify (i) under which conditions network synchro-
nization occurs and (ii) the emerging structural properties of the
network when this happens. In particular, we compute the main
descriptive structural properties of the network, and it is elucidated
the relationship between these results and the observed synchro-
nization at both the local and global scale. Our main nding is that
modularity, a global feature, can naturally emerge in a network
when evolving links are considered (i.e., by means of dynamical
properties at the local scale).
12:10 12:30
Room A4
Contributed talk
Are Complex Networks Really Hierarchical? The Actual And The
Possible Of Network Organisation
Bernat Corominas-Murtra, Joaquin Goi Cortes, Ricard Sole and Carlos
Rodriguez-Caso*
Hierarchy pervades both living and articial systems. Seen ideal
hierarchy as a feed-forward tree structure of directed relations, we
develop a framework for the quantication of deviations from this
structure. Our approach results in a 3D morphospace of hierarchi-
cal organisations allowing to locate the repertoire of all network
organizations. Results revealed that complex networks commonly
seen as hierarchical fairly match the bow-tie, non-hierarchical struc-
ture observed in random models. Hub presence derived from pref-
erence attachment models did not contribute to the emergence of a
hierarchical structure.
12:30 12:50
Room A4
Contributed talk
Deciphering The Global Organization Of Clustering In Real
Complex Networks
Pol Colomer*, M. Angeles Serrano, Mariano Gaston Beiro, Jose Ignacio
Alvarez Hamelin and Marian Bogua
The effects of clustering on the structural and dynamical prop-
erties of networks have not yet been elucidated. In fact, several
studies have reported apparent contradictory results concerning
the effects of clustering on the percolation properties of networks
and little is known on its effects on dynamical processes running
on networks. This is further hindered by the technical difculties
of any analytical treatment. To overcome these problems, a new
class of clustered network models has been proposed with the pe-
culiarity that tree-like assumption still holds on them, thus allowing
for an analytical treatment. While this is indeed a fair approach to
the problem, triangles generated by these models are arranged in a
very specic way, with strong correlations between the properties of
adjacent edges. In some sense, we can consider this class of models
as generators of maximally ordered clustered graphs. At the other
side of the spectrum, we can dene an ensemble of maximally ran-
dom clustered graphs such that correlations among adjacent edges
are the minimum needed to conform with the degree-dependent
clustering coefcient, but no more. These two types of models
dene in a non-rigorous way the edges of the phase space of pos-
sible graphs with given P (k) and c(k). A simple question arises:
where are real networks in this phase space?
DTo give an answer

to this question, we need to go beyond the local properties of net-
works and to study their global organization. In this work, we
study the global structure induced by the two types of models and
compare them with the global structure of real networks with iden-
tical local properties. Interestingly enough, real networks tend to
be closer to maximally random clustered graphs, although clear
differences are evident.
12:50 13:10
Room A4
Contributed talk
What Comes First? Social Strength Or Common Friends?
Giovanna Miritello, Ruben Lara, Manuel Cebrian and Esteban Moro
A famous result in social network theory is given by the weak
ties hypothesis, hypothesized in the 1973 by the american soci-
ologist Mark Granovetter [1]. According to this hypothesis the
strength of a tie between two individuals increases with the overlap
of their friendship neighborhood. This hypothesis has been re-
cently tested for large communication networks where the strength
of a given tie is measured as the total volume of communication
between the involved individual over the total observation time
window [2]. In these studies the number of common friends as
well as the total volume of interaction between two individuals is
usually aggregated over time, thus assuming that all social relation-
ships are constantly active over time, which is not the case for real
networks [3]. Here we analyze the mobile phone communication
network of about 20 million people over a long period of time of
19 months. We rst propose a new method to disentangle tie acti-
vation/deactivation from their bursty activity. This allows us to
identify with high precision the time at which a given connection
was created/destroyed. By doing this we are able to determine, for
each tie in our dataset, the set of their common neighbors that are
active at any time instant and to study what we call the dynamical
Granovetter eect: do people form a large overlap with their strong
ties or ties that are strong tend to form a large overlap? To address
this we analyze how the number of common friends between in-
dividuals with dierent strengths evolves in time, from before the
connection between them has been established to after it has been
removed. Interestingly, we nd that the process that drives two in-
dividuals to link together is highly dynamical and that, locally, it
entails the change of the underlying topology of the network. We
observe, in fact, a large overlap many days before the connection
has been established, and it continues to increase over time after the
tie forms. A similar result is found when a tie is removed: in this
case the overlap between them starts to decrease much before the
connection stops interacting. These results indicate that the proper-
ties of the local network between two individuals contain important
information about their relationship even if no interaction between
them is observed. In fact, the correlation between the number of
common friends and the strength between two individuals is ob-
servable within a time period signicantly longer then the lifetime of
their interaction, thus acting as a "ngerprint" of the social relation-
ship itself. [1] Granovetter M (1973) The strength of weak ties. Am
J Sociol 78:13601380.[2] Onnela J-P, Saramki J, 1176 Hyvnen J, Szab
Z, Lazer D, Kaski K, Kertsz J, Barabsi A-L (2007), Structure and
tie strengths inmobile communication networks. Proc.Natl.Acad.
SciUSA104:7332.[3] Hidalgo C, Rodriguez-Sickert C (2008) The
dynamics of amobile phone network. Phys A387:3017.
Chair: M. Ibaes
11:30 11:50
Room S9
Contributed talk
Evolutionary Dynamics Of The Genotype-Phenotype Map
Esther Ibaez* and Tomas Alarcon
There is a complex relationship between genotype and pheno-
type. One of the outstanding features of this map is that is not a
one-to-one map, because many genotypes are compatible with the
same phenotype. Whereas genes are the entities passed on from
one generation to the next and their frequencies measured over
populations (the remit of population genetics), selection acts at the
level of phenotypes. Thus, assigning tness values to genes (mutant
variants, different alleles, etc.) is not, in general, the valid approach.
We are trying to put forward some of new properties we may ex-
pect to emerge when the genotype-phenotype difference is taken
into account, both in a general setting and in particular cases re-
lated to disease. We have been focused on formulating models of
evolutionary dynamical processes with genotype-phenotype map,
give a denition of phenotype based on the attractors of simple
models of the dynamic gene regulatory networks, and simulate it
in order to ascertain its dynamical properties. We have introduced
a bipartite network to study genotype and phenotype together
and their structural relationship. Also a way to understand their
structure is to study their clustering coecient, existence of commu-
nities, which are related to phenotypic robustness, or connectivity
between communities (it means, innovation).
11:50 12:10
Room S9
Contributed talk
Phase Diagram Of A Cyclic Predator-Prey Model With Neutral-
Pairs Exchange
Nara C. Guisoni, Ernesto S. Loscar and Mauricio Girardi*
In the present work we obtain the phase diagram of a fours
species predator-prey lattice model by using the recently proposed
Gradient Method. We consider cyclic transitions between consec-
utive states, representing invasion or predation, and allowed the
exchange between neighboring neutral pairs. By applying a gradi-
ent in the invasion rate parameter one can see, in the same simu-
lation, the presence of two symmetric absorbing phases, composed
by neutral pairs, and an active phase that includes all four species.
In this sense, the study of a Single-Valued Interface and its uctua-
tions give the critical point of the irreversible phase transition and
the corresponding universality classes. Also, the consideration of
a Multivalued Interface and its uctuations bring the percolation
threshold. We show that the model presents two lines of irreversible
rst-order phase transition between the two absorbing phases and
the active phase. Depending on the system parameters, these lines
can converge into a triple point that is the beginning of a rst-order
irreversible line between the two absorbing phases, or end in two
critical points that belong to the directed percolation universality
class. Standard simulations conrm the order of the transitions as
determined by the Gradient Method. Besides, above the triple point
the model presents a rst-order percolation transition, as already
found in other similar models.
12:10 12:30
Room S9
Contributed talk
Dynamical Selection Of Coexisting Patterns
David Palau-Ortin*, Pau Formosa-Jordan, Jose Maria Sancho and Marta
Ibaes
Cellular differentiation is a paradigmatic example of cellu-
lar decision making in which cells decide to turn into a new cell
type. In developing tissues, cellular decisions take place either
cell-autonomously or with cell-to-cell communication. Cell-to-cell
communication enables spatiotemporal organization at the tissue
level. Herein we address from a theoretical and computational
scope how a specic pattern can be selected when different types of
patterns are stable and we show which elements are relevant for the
dynamic selection of a pattern.
12:30 12:50
Room S9
Contributed talk
Fokker-Planck- And Hamilton-Jacobi-Approximations In Parame-
ter Estimation And Model Evaluation Of Complex Epidemiologi-
cal Systems
Nico Stollenwerk* and Maira Aguiar
To describe uctuations in dengue long term fever time series
from Thailand and neighbouring South East Asian countries where
dengue is endemic, multi-strain models with temporary cross-
immunity and differences in primary versus secondary infection
turned out to be adequate (Aguiar et al., JTB, 2011, and references
therein). For such systems with deterministically chaotic skele-
ton and complex interplay between population stochasticity and
chaoticity, characterized by Lyapunov exponents, including coex-
istences of several attractors, methods from parameter estimation
and model comparison have been developed recently, namely iter-
ated particle ltering (Stollenwerk et al., Interface Focus 2012, and
references therein). We investigate several approximation schemes
to speed up the notoriously computationally intensive stocahstic
simulation for such ltering methods to make them feasable for e.g.
the complex dengue models to nally (i) predict future outbreaks in
endemic areas and (ii) to transfer the knowledge to describe present
and future invasion scenarios of dengue fever into new world areas
(as part of the EU-project DENFREE).
12:50 13:10
Room S9
Contributed talk
Selection, Stability And Cooperation In A Binary Polymer Model
Harold Fellermann, Steen Rasmussen and Shinpei Tanaka
We study a system of binary polymers, where each polymer
can replicate by ligation We study a system of binary polymers,
where each polymer can replicate by ligation of two matching sub-
sequences. If random ligation is comparatively rare the system
generates unexpected dynamics radically different from the purely
uncatalyzed case: a) very few out of exponentially many possible
strings are selected and their sequence motifs are particular; b) the
selected cooperative string populations have identical size; c) the
structure of the cooperation is dictated by the sequence motifs. We
explain these features analytically and present simulation results on
the systems evolutionary dynamics.
13:10 13:30
Room S9
Contributed talk
Host Mobility Drives Pathogen Competition In Spatially Struc-
tured Populations
Chiara Poletto*, Sandro Meloni, Vittoria Colizza, Yamir Moreno and
Alessandro Vespignani
Interactions among multiple infectious agents are increasingly
recognized as a fundamental issue in the understanding of key
questions in public health, regarding pathogen emergence, main-
tenance, and evolution. The full description of host-multipathogen
systems is however challenged by the multiplicity of factors affect-
ing the interaction dynamics and the resulting competition that
may occur at different scales, from the within-host scale to the spa-
tial structure and mobility of the host population. Here we study
the dynamics of two competing pathogens in a structured host pop-
ulation and assess the impact of the mobility/migration pattern of
hosts on the pathogen competition. We model the host population
spatial structure in terms of a metapopulation network and focus
on two strains imported locally in the system and having the same
transmission potential but different infectious periods. We nd
different scenarios leading to competitive success of either one of
the strain or to the codominance of both strains in the system. The
dominance of the strain characterized by the shorter or longer infec-
tious period depends exclusively on the structure of the population
and on the the mobility of hosts across patches. The proposed mod-
eling framework allows the integration of other relevant epidemio-
logical, environmental and demographic factors opening the path to
further mathematical and computational studies of the dynamics of
multipathogen systems
Chair: J. Duch
15:00 15:20
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Signicant Scales In Community Structure
Vincent Traag*, Gautier Krings and Paul Van Dooren
Many complex networks show signs of a modular structure, un-
covered by communitydetection. Although many different methods
succeed in revealing variouspartitions, it remains difcult to de-
tect at what scale some partition issignicant. This problem shows
foremost in multi-resolution methods. Inparticular for the Constant
Potts Model (CPM), it is unclear how to choose a"good" resolu-
tion parameter. We here introduce an efcient method forscanning
the whole resolution range. In addition, we introduce the notion
ofsignicance of a partition, based on the appearance of dense sub-
graphs in arandom graph. Using signicance, we can determine
"good" resolutionparameters, which we demonstrate on bench-
mark networks. Moreover, optimisingsignicance itself also works
excellent. Signicance is independent of theexact method used,
so it could also be applied in other methods. We demonstrateour
method using voting data from the European Parliament (EP). We
show thatdivisions in member states and national parties are not
signicant, contrary toa division in ideologically based EP groups.
Moreover, this ideological baseddivision increases over the years,
suggesting the EP becomes increasinglyideologically divided.
15:20 15:40
Auditorium
Contributed talk
The Cluster Index Revisited: Detection Of Mesolevel Dynamical
Structures
Marco Villani, Roberto Serra, Andrea Roli*, Alessandro Filisetti, Stefano
Benedettini and David Lane
We present an approach to detect mesolevel dynamical structures
(MDSs), which are emerging patterns composed of elements that
behave in a coherent way and loosely interact with the rest of the
system. We extend the notion of cluster index to deal with discrete
nonlinear dynamical systems and we propose a procedure to apply
this measure to identify signicant MDSs. We apply this method
to several dynamical systems, both biological as well as articial
ones, and we show that it is possible to detect important functional
relations among set of nodes that can not be detected by usual
correlation-based approaches nor motifs analysis.
15:40 16:00
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Hypernetworks In Systems Of Systems Of Systems
Jeffrey Johnson*
Complex socio-physical systems are messy aggregates of messy
subsystems. There is currently no formalism able to integrate the
dynamics of such systems from micro- through meso- to macrolevels.
Graphs, networks and hypergraphs are widely used in the analy-
sis of complex systems. Hypernetworks are a natural extension
of these structures and provide an algebraic method of linking
bottom-up and top-down dynamics between micro-, meso- and
macrolevels. The multilevel theory to be developed will be illus-
trated by machine vision and road trac systems.
16:00 16:20
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Failure Of Community Structure Detectability In Graphs: A Case
Of Mis-Identication
Lucio Floretta, Jonas Liechti, Alessandro Flammini and Paolo De Los Rios
We have analyzed community detection on the popular Girvan
and Newman network benchmark. We found that the phase where
the clusters of a planted l-partition model are undetectable, found
by Decelle et al. and by Nadakuditi et al., does not correspond to
a failure of the community detection algorithms. Rather, it must
be interpreted as a phase where the hierarchical structure is absent
according to the heuristic denition that a node belongs to its pu-
tative cluster only if it does not have more connections toward any
of the other l-1 clusters. As a consequence, the performance of two
popular community algorithms based on modularity optimization,
namely fastgreedy and Louvain method, must be re-assessed, and it
is found to be, in the case of the Louvain method, maximal.
16:20 16:40
Auditorium
Contributed talk
Dening Rich Clubs And Random Controls In Weighted Net-
works
Jeff Alstott*, Dietmar Plenz, Ed Bullmore and Petra Vertes
Networks have a rich club organization when highly-connected
nodes preferentially connect to other highly-connected nodes.
Rich club organization is present in a variety of systems, includ-
ing transportation networks, scientic collaboration, and the brain.
Rich clubs can increase network efciency by serving as a high-
throughput backbone for signal trafcking. For networks with
unweighted links, rich clubs are measured with a well-dened met-
ric. For weighted networks, multiple possible metrics exist which
each capture different features of the rich club. We describe an in-
tegrated framework for measuring unweighted and weighted rich
clubs that resolves the many different metrics into a single method.
This method focuses on the role of random controls, particularly
on selecting what network features to control for. Using this frame-
work, we show how previously reported weighted rich clubs can
be biased by inappropriate controls. We also identify that rich club
organization of links and weights may be separate, and introduce
the method of controlling for link structure and measuring solely
the allocation of weight.
Chair: J. Gomez-Gardees
15:00 15:20
Room A1
Contributed talk
Tuning Synchronization Of Integrate-And-Fire Oscillators Through
Mobility
Luce Prignano*, Oleguer Sagarra and Albert Diaz-Guilera
We analyze the emergence of synchronization in a population of
moving integrate-and-re oscillators. Oscillators, while moving on
a plane, interact with their nearest neighbor upon ring time.
We discover a non-monotonic dependence of the synchronization
time on the velocity of the agents. Moreover, we nd that mecha-
nisms that drive synchronization are different for different dynam-
ical regimes. We report the extreme situation where an interplay
between the time-scales involved in the dynamical processes com-
pletely inhibit the achievement of a coherent state. We also provide
estimators for the transitions between the different regimes.
15:20 15:40
Room A1
Contributed talk
A Spectral Approach To Synchronization Of Interdependent
Networks
Gregorio DAgostino* and Javier Martin Hernandez
Synchronization phenomena in large communities of interacting
systems appear in physical, biological, chemical, and social systems.
Applying the paradigm of the complexity science to the problem
of synchronization consists in modeling the dierent entities to be
synchronized as nodes in a graph which topology only describes
the interdependence among them. The spectral analysis of the
Laplacian provides a means to estimate the synchronization time
and its dependence on net topology changes. The present study
is framed in the context of Networks of Networks; some general
results are provided for a set of interacting networks while the
case of two interacting networks is deeply analysed.One of the
most interesting outcomes of the study is the existence of a type
of phase transition for the synchronization time upon removals
(or inclusions) of interlinks between the interdependent network.
There exists a critical number of interlinks at which the typical time
for sysnchronization (ie. the algebraic connectivity) equals that of
the isolated networks. When the number of attacked links reduces
down to this critical value, the synchronization of the two networks
drastically slows. Depending on the strategy of such attacks (or
connection inclusions) the synchronization of the composite system
(consisting of the two interdependent networks) exhibits dierent
behaviors. Numerical calculation are coherently interpreted by both
exact calculations and perturbation theory. Interdependent systems
of dierent sizes and component model networks are accounted for.
15:40 16:00
Room A1
Contributed talk
Explosive Transitions To Synchronization In Random Networks
I. Leyva, A. Navas, I. Sedia-Nadal, J. A. Almendral and S. Boccaletti
We introduce a condition for an ensemble of networked phase
oscillators to feature an abrupt, rst-order phase transition from an
unsynchronized to a synchronized state.
This condition is met in a very wide spectrum of situations and
initial frequency distributions. We show that the occurrence of such
transitions is always accompanied by the spontaneous emergence of
frequency-degree correlations in random network architectures. We
also discuss ways to relax the condition, and to further extend the
possibility for the rst-order transition to occur, and illustrate how
to engineer magnetic-like states of synchronization. Our ndings
thus indicate how to search for abrupt transitions in real-world
applications.
16:00 16:20
Room A1
Contributed talk
Emergence Of Complex Behavior Via Synchronization In Net-
works
Fatihcan M. Atay*
We investigate the question of how complex behavior can emerge
in networks of simple dynamical systems at the global level through
synchronization. What makes this a nontrivial problem is the way
the usual mechanisms for synchronization work, namely, by trying
to equalize local activities of neighboring units, the synchronized
behavior ends up mimicking the behavior of the individual units
rather than facilitating emergence. For the emergence of completely
different behavior, we consider two different mechanisms, namely,
non-diffusive coupling and time delays. In this context we show
how networks of identical simple agents can synchronize their ac-
tivities to display complex dynamics. Moreover, the complexity can
manifest itself both temporally and spatially in the network.
16:20 16:40
Room A1
Contributed talk
Critical Behaviour Of The Xy-Rotors Model On Networks
Sarah De Nigris and Xavier Leoncini
We study the XY-rotors model on small networks whose num-
ber of links scales with the system size N_links N
, where the
parameter tunes the links density of the network. We rst fo-
cus on regular one dimensional rings: for < 1.5 the model is
short-range and the total magnetisation vanishes in the thermody-
namic limit. On the contrary, for > 1.5, the XY-rotors behaves
like the Hamiltonian Mean Field (HMF) model, displaying a second
order phase transition of the magnetisation for e_c = 0.75. More-
over for _c = 1.5 we show numerically that a non trivial state
emerges, characterised by large uctuations of the order parameter
[1]. We then address small world networks, applying the Watts-
Strogatz model to introduce randomness in the regular networks
parametrised by . We rst investigate the scaling of the average
path length l(p, ) varying p and . We show the inuence of the
density parameter on p_SW, the rewiring probability for the net-
work to be the small-world regime, which scales as p_SW 1/N
.
Furthermore, focusing on the behaviour of the XY-rotors model
on small world networks, we nd a second order phase transition
occurring at a critical energy e_c logaritmically dependent on the
topological parameters p and : we dene p_MF() the rewiring
probability necessary to reach e_c = 0.75, the mean eld value and
we show its dependence on the parameter.
Chair: J. Borge
15:00 15:20
Room A2
Contributed talk
No Need For Speed: Modelling Trend Adoption In A Heteroge-
neous Population
Andrzej Nowak, Wieslaw Bartkowski, Katarzyna Samson*, Agnieszka
Rychwalska, Marta Kacprzyk, Magda Roszczynska-Kurasinska and Mag-
dalena Jagielska
The speed of social and technological changes is constantly in-
creasing. Innovations are a prerequisite for economic development
but the speed of their introduction carries additional costs that may
largely affect the ability of social systems to adopt them. While the
nancial costs constitute a limit to adoption, the psychological and
social costs may also profoundly change the adoption potential. In
this work we have developed an agent-based model of a network of
interconnected heterogeneous agents that form a market for trend
adoption. In a simulation we explore the consequences of increas-
ing the pace of novelty introduction on agent satisfaction and the
degree to which new trends may permeate the system. We show
that introduction speed has a diametrically different impact on
different adopter groups: opinion leaders are most satised when
the mainstream individuals are least content and vice versa. More-
over, introduction speed profoundly affects the ability of novelties
to penetrate the social system - the lower the introduction speed,
the higher the penetration level. These results are validated by em-
pirical research exploring the connections between psychological
characteristics and strategies people use in the area of trend adop-
tion.
15:20 15:40
Room A2
Contributed talk
Connections Between Human Movements And Social Communi-
cations
Pierre Deville, Dashun Wang, Chaoming Song, Vincent Blondel and
Albert-Laszlo Barabasi
With the increasing availability of large-scale datasets that si-
multaneously capture human movements and social interactions,
advances in human mobility and spatial networks have rapidly pro-
liferated during the past years,impacting in a meaningful fashion
a wide range of areas, from epidemic prevention and emergency
response to urban planning and trafc forecasting. As human
mobility and spatial networks have developed in parallel, being
pursued as separate lines of inquiry,we lack any known relation-
ships between the quantities explored by them, despite the fact
that they often study the same systems and datasets. Here, by ex-
ploiting three different cell phone datasets, we nd a set of scaling
relationships, mediated by a universal ux distribution, that link
the quantities characterizing human mobility and spatial networks,
showing that the widely studied scaling laws uncovered in the two
areas represent two facets of the same underlying phenomena.
15:40 16:00
Room A2
Contributed talk
Simulating A Human Complex System By Embedding Mini
Games Of Cooperation, Competition, Coordination, And Col-
laboration In A Massively Multiplayer Game Of Life
Susanne Lohmann*
Diversity, Disagreement, and Democracy is a newly developed
fully online course at UCLA. Students are collected together in vil-
lages counting 150 inhabitants each. The number 150 is not an acci-
dent. It is Dunbars Number, named after the anthropologist Robin
Dunbar. It corresponds to the number of people you can have a per-
sonal relationship with, or the number of people you can keep track
of reputationally. Cloaked in pen names (Prez-in-2034, TreeHug-
ger, Empress Wu), students identities are protected, but their
participation in the online classroom is hardly anonymous. A stu-
dent might say or do something in one online class session only to
have their message or action come to haunt them in a subsequent
session simply because their fellow students are perfectly capable of
keeping track of them under their pen name.The effect is to recre-
ate the ancestral village where people were stuck with each other
for life playing out morally charged situations. Over the course of
10 weeks students in effect simulate a massively multiplayer game
of life made up of mini games of cooperation, competition, coor-
dination, and collaboration. They accumulate game points based
on their own decisions, the decisions made by other students, and
luck. They write weekly reports relating the game play data to clas-
sical and cutting-edge ndings in the social sciences. Students nal
grades depend on their cumulative gaming points and their weekly
reports.Over and over again, students experience a human complex
system in action, rst from a frogs perspective, as an inhabitant
of the system, then with a birds eye view, as the analyst of the
system. They learn under what conditions diversity feeds produc-
tively or counterproductively into a group effort; they gain self- and
other-awareness of the emergent properties of disagreement; and
they observe how social organization promotes or undercuts social
cognition and collective action.
16:00 16:20
Room A2
Contributed talk
Making It Big: Modelling The Spread Of Behaviours And Trends
Daniel Sprague*, Thomas House and Gareth Roberts
Many social trends and behaviours show similar phenomena:
large variability in what dies out and what becomes a hit, unpre-
dictability in what will become popular, and a rapid drop in popu-
larity after a trend has peaked. There have been attempts to model
trends that capture some of these characteristics, but they generally
take the form agent-based models, which are hard to t to data, or
empirical generalisations without a rm underlying model. Here
we present a simple, low-dimensional stochastic process model of
the spread and uptake of a trend, which captures all of the phe-
nomena mentioned above and can be efciently tted to real data.
16:20 16:40
Room A2
Contributed talk
Communication Dynamics In Finite Capacity Social Networks
Jan Haerter*, Bjrn Jamtveit and Joachim Mathiesen
In communication networks, structure and dynamics are tightly
coupled. The structure controls the ow of information and is it-
self shaped by the dynamical process of information exchanged
between nodes. In order to reconcile structure and dynamics, a
generic model, based on the local interaction between nodes, is con-
sidered for the communication in large social networks. In agree-
ment with data from a large human organization, we show that the
ow is non-Markovian and controlled by the temporal limitations
of individuals. We conrm the versatility of our model by predict-
ing simultaneously the degree-dependent node activity, the balance
between information input and output of nodes, and the degree
distribution. Finally, we quantify the limitations to network analysis
when it is based on data sampled over a nite period of time.
Chair: O. Sagarra
15:00 15:20
Room A3
Contributed talk
Statistical Inference For Complex Systems: Power-Law Fitting
And Universality Verication
Anna Deluca*, Pere Puig and Alvaro Corral
Power-law distributions contain precious information about a
large variety of physical processes. Although there are sound the-
oretical grounds for these distributions, the empirical evidence
giving support to power laws has been traditionally weak. Re-
cently, Clauset et al. have proposed a systematic method to nd
over which range (if any) a certain distribution behaves as a power
law. However, their method fails to recognize true (simulated)
power-law tails in some instances, rejecting the power-law hy-
pothesis. Moreover, the method does not perform well when it is
extended to power-law distributions with an upper truncation.
We present an alternative procedure, valid for truncated as well
as for non-truncated power-law distributions, based in maximum
likelihood estimation, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-t
test, and Monte Carlo simulations. We will test the performance of
our method on several empirical data which were previously ana-
lyzed with less systematic approaches. The databases include the
half-lives of the radionuclides, the seismic moment of earthquakes
worldwide and in Southern California, a proxy for the energy dis-
sipated by tropical cyclones, rainfall data across different climates
and the repetitions of words in texts (testing the validity of Zipfs
law). We nd the functioning of the method very satisfactory. In
addition, we will compare the estimated critical exponents in order
to test the existence of a single universal exponent. We will do that
by constructing condence intervals on the exponent differences
and by means of the Permutation test.
15:20 15:40
Room A3
Contributed talk
Exploiting Complexity Resonances In Dynamical Networks
Xerxes Arsiwalla* and Paul Verschure
Using Integrated Information as a measure of network complex-
ity, in earlier work, we found that resonances in integrated infor-
mation generate a complexity spectrum specic to the topology of
a network. In this work, we seek to exploit these ndings further
to compare network complexity across different dynamics. Adding
dynamics to links, we now nd that these resonances generate char-
acteristic information spike trains. Analyzing the spike statistics of
these waveforms, gives a temporal measure of network complexity.
Furthermore, we also comment on the physical interpretation of
these resonances.
15:40 16:00
Room A3
Contributed talk
Understanding Power-Law Growth And Relaxation Of Collective
Human Behaviors
Kenta Yamada*, Hideki Takaysu and Misako Takayasu
We can observe the dynamics characterized by power functions
in various collective human behaviors, for example the sales of
particular books each day, daily viewings of YouTube videos, blog
entries including specic words and the number of registrations
around international conference deadlines. In order to clarify this
universal power-law behavior, we have introduced an agent-based
model based on the SIR (Susceptive Infected- Recovered) model
in mathematical epidemiology. By adding a deadline and an amor-
phous effect to the SIR model, the improved model reproduces
power-law growth and relaxation very well. And we evaluate a
theoretical estimation of power coefcient for such power-law be-
haviors.
16:00 16:20
Room A3
Contributed talk
Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation Of Cascading Failure
Blackout In Interdisciplinary Complex Systems
Catalina Spataru*
In our society, critical services are underpinned by increasingly
complex networks, some of them highly vulnerable to natural
hazards and malevolent attackers. Reducing the probability and
consequences of blackouts and the cascading effects is critical to
improving systemic resiliences. However, the paucity of data in this
area calls for a different approach where research expertise from
other elds can be drawn upon and transferred to meet our energy
security needs. This paper analyses cascading models that have a
wide applications in many different disciplines (complex networks)
based mainly on the interdependent network theory. It gives an
overview of the current techniques, challenges and emerging meth-
ods of analysis and simulation. The nature of the models discussed
indicates the potential applicability of large integrated nancial,
biological, social and transport systems. Such examples are the
electrical power markets and grids, urban regional transportation
systems, gene regulatory networks, infectious diseases, nancial
networks. Through this research, we created a forum where re-
searchers can engage together in examining the challenges of relia-
bility faced by operational systems in various elds, and on various
scales. We identied analogies between different disciplines, mainly
power engineering, medicine, biology, nance. Cascading failures
may happen in various types of systems. Examples of such systems
are: power transmission - when one of the elements fails and shifts
its load to nearby elements in the system, medicine - when hearts
pumping function is not working adequately leads to a cascade of
a number of symptoms and poor overall body function, nance -
when the failure of one nancial institution impacts on others caus-
ing a domino effect, biology - where a small reaction can impact
on the overall system; transport - when the failure of one segment
has an impact on the trafc within the broader transport network
, stock market, etc. In any of these systems, to minimize disrup-
tions, it is necessary to effectively understand, forecast and control
the response of complex systems to outside perturbations. This re-
quires tackling two major technical challenges: to control abnormal
behaviour in local sub-systems when these have the potential to
disrupt the whole system and to offer security, stability and reli-
ability. As such events are fortunately infrequent, the shortage of
data available makes the technical challenges even more difcult to
solve. Complex systems are often very difcult to predict and con-
trol. Due to the wide number of possible interactions, the analysis
of complex systems challenge our ways of thinking. Often, our per-
ception of them is oversimplied or biased. What we proposed is to
investigate methodologies and approaches applied to different com-
plex systems, reviewing the statistics and dynamics of cascading
failures in various individual networks and interconnected net-
works. A failure in one part of a system can make the entire system
to collapse and that happens simply because of the dynamics of the
network. By questioning existing approaches and putting forward
new ways of examining existing problems, the ndings should ulti-
mately foster a radically new approach to modelling blackouts and
cascading events following them.
16:20 16:40
Room A3
Contributed talk
Power Laws In Nature: Signal Or Noise?
Salvador Pueyo*
Complex systems theory pays much attention to the ways in
which specic simple mechanisms give rise to nontrivial patterns,
especially power laws. However, in a broad range of circumstances,
the combined action of large sets of heterogeneous mechanisms also
results into a power law frequency distribution, with exponent =
1. Probably, both paths to the power law are relevant in nature. The
second gives a plausible explanation for some instances of power
laws emerging in extremely complex systems, such as ecosystems.
The relevant measures of nonequilibrium entropy differ in these
two situations.
Chair: J. Perello
15:00 15:20
Room A4
Contributed talk
Early-Warning Signals Of Topological Collapse In Interbank
Networks
Tiziano Squartini*, Iman van Lelyveld and Diego Garlaschelli
The nancial crisis marked a paradigm shift, from traditional
studies of individual risk to recent research on the "systemic risk"
generated by whole networks of institutions. However, the re-
verse effects of realized defaults on network topology are poorly
understood. Here we analyze the Dutch interbank network over
the period 1998-2008, ending with the global crisis. We nd that
many topological properties, after controlling for overall density
effects, display an abrupt change in 2008, thus providing a clear
but unpredictable signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the intrin-
sic heterogeneity of banks is controlled for, the same properties
undergo a slow and continuous transition, gradually connecting
the crisis period to a much earlier stationary phase.The temporal
evolution of each of the three dyadic motifs z-scores, computed
under a null model controlling for the size and density of the net-
work (i.e. the directed version of the Erdos-Renyi random graph
model, or Directed Random Graph - DRG), reveals that, while the
size and density of the network are relatively stable throughout
the entire period, all the dyadic z-scores undergo an abrupt jump
in 2008.The crisis period is characterized by a sudden decrease of
the abundance of full and empty dyads and a sudden increase of
the abundance of single dyads. Similarly, the observed abundances
of single and empty dyads become consistent with the null model
in 2008. Since the total number of links is more or less stable, the
net effect we see is that reciprocal connections suddenly decouple
and ll previously empty dyads, making single dyads increase and
empty dyads decrease. So the network seems to suddenly evolve
from a uctuating but roughly stationary conguration (with few
single dyads and many full and empty ones) to a crisis congu-
ration whose dyadic structure is marginally consistent with that
of an unstructured random graph. The dyadic motifs, when us-
ing the DRG as a reference, are therefore clear topological signa-
tures of the crisis but they are however unpredictable, since they
show an abrupt transition with no evidence of a previous build-
up phase.Surprisingly, the picture changes entirely as we consider
a more stringent null model where the intrinsic heterogeneity of
banks is accurately controlled for. In particular, we compare each
snapshot of the network with a null model (known as the Directed
Conguration Model (DCM) where the number of in- and out-
going links of each bank (e.g. the in- and out-degree, respectively)
is kept equal to the observed values, and the network is otherwise
random. Note that the degree reects a variety of properties of a
bank, particularly their size.Our results shown so far suggest that,
with respect to a homogeneous benchmark (i.e., the representative
agent scenario), the interbank network displays an abrupt structural
transition at the onset of the crisis. On the other hand, with respect
to a heterogeneous benchmark carefully controlling for the different
connectivities of real banks, the transition is slow and continuous,
and highlights a gradual build-up phase starting three years in ad-
vance of the crisis. The pre-crisis phase is thus an early-warning
signal of the upcoming topological collapse.This early-warning
signal begins in 2005, and is preceded by an even earlier period of
"risk autocatalysis" characterized by anomalous debt loops. These
remarkable precursors are undetectable if the network is recon-
structed from partial bank-specic information.
15:20 15:40
Room A4
Contributed talk
Defuse The Bomb: Rewiring Interbank Networks
Matteo Chinazzi, Stefano Pegoraro and Giorgio Fagiolo
Aims and GoalsThe topology of the nancial sector has funda-
mental implications for the state and dynamics of systemic risk. In
this contribution, we examine how network topology, banks hetero-
geneity and prudential regulation alter the probability of observing
a systemic meltdown. First, we examine how different network
congurations affect the probability of contagion. In particular, we
show how the Erdos-Renyi (1960) random graph, the Watts and
Strogatz (1998) small-world network and the Barabasi and Albert
(1999) scale-free system display different resilience to attacks. Sec-
ond, we study how we can alter systemic risk by xing higher order
network statistics, extending the traditional frameworks that are
used in the literature to model interbank networks. In particular,
we observe how frequency and extent of contagion vary when we
x the node clustering sequence of the graph.Third, we explore
what happens when banks are not homogeneous. In particular, we
introduce heterogeneity in the composition of their portfolio, in the
size of their balance sheets and in their creditworthiness. Lastly,
we study how different measures of prudential regulation alter the
probability of observing default cascades under different stress test-
ing scenarios. In particular, we analyze how liquidity and capital
requirements interact with connectivity in determining the stabil-
ity of the system in the presence of random and targeted attacks.
Furthermore, cases in which also liquidity risk is introduced are
examined. Our ultimate goal is to further clarify the role of network
topology in the spreading of contagion and to provide additional
policy insights for the regulation of the nancial system by also ad-
dressing whether it is more important to regulate "too-big-to-fail"
or "too-connected-to-fail" institutions.MethodologyWe develop a
computational model to test the resilience of the nancial system
under different assumptions regarding network topology, banks
heterogeneity and prudential regulation. Our analytical framework
is developed upon the existing literature on nancial networks and
it is close in spirit to the contributions of: Gai and Kapadia (2010),
Amini, Cont and Minca (2010,2012), Iori, Jafarey and Padilla (2006),
Nier et al. (2007), Caccioli, Thomas and Farmer (2012) and Battiston
et al. (2012a, 2012b). The nancial system is represented as a di-
rected and weighted network of credit exposures between N banks.
The directed weighted graph is fully described by the weighted
adjacency matrix P, also called exposure matrix. Each entry p_ij
represents an interbank lending relationship between bank i (i.e.
the creditor) and bank j (i.e. the debtor). Furthermore, we assume
no netting off of reciprocal exposures so that both entries p_ij and
p_ji can be positive. Banks balance sheets are explicitly modeled
and they include: interbank assets and liabilities that constitute
the edges of the directed graph, and other non-network external
resources such as deposits, external assets and external liabilities.
Exogenous shocks are modeled as a loss to the external assets of
the targeted bank such that its solvency condition is violated and
the node is forced to default.Preliminary ResultsSystems fragility
is non-monotonic in connectivity with the nancial system dis-
playing the so called "robust-yet-fragile" property: i.e. contagion
is very unlikely, but when it happens it hits the entire network. In
the benchmark scenario of no liquidity risk and random attack,
small-world networks display a higher frequency of contagion than
random graphs, while the extent of contagion does not differ signif-
icantly. Scale-free networks, instead, have a much wider contagion
window than random graphs, but are far more resilient for low
level of connectivity and they provide a good insurance against ran-
dom attack, as the frequency of contagion never reaches such high
peaks as it does for random graphs. By adding a "liquidity risk",
contagion windows are widened, but compared to the previous
case no striking difference is found. Interestingly, the resilience of
small-world networks is not particularly affected by the presence
neither of re-sales nor of mark-to-market pricing of assets. This
suggests that when node clustering is high connectivity is the
major factor explaining contagion. The same consideration can be
made when the exogenously defaulted bank is not selected com-
pletely randomly, but with "probability proportional to its degree".
The results change considerably when the exogenous default is "tar-
geted" to hit the most connected bank. The scale-free networks be-
come the most fragile, displaying a contagion window much wider
than the other two congurations, with both frequency and extent
of contagion close to hundred percent for a wide range of connec-
tivity levels. Small world networks, instead, are not affected at all in
this scenario.Concluding RemarksWith this paper we aim to further
clarify the role of network topology in the spreading of contagion.
We prove that the random graphs which are often assumed in the-
oretical literature tend to overestimate the severity of contagion in
case of random attacks; while it is typically underestimated in case
of targeted attacks.
15:40 16:00
Room A4
Contributed talk
Debtrank-Transparency: Controlling Systemic Risk In Financial
Networks
Stefan Thurner* and Sebastian Poledna
Nodes in a nancial network, such as banks, cannot assess the
true risks associated with lending to other nodes in the network,
unless they have full information on the riskiness of all the other
nodes. Systemic risk, understood as the risk of default of a large
portion of the nancial system, depends on the network of liabili-
ties among banks. Systemic risk can be estimated by using network
metrics of the interbank liability network such as the Katz central-
ity or the DebtRank, a novel measure of systemic impact inspired
by feedback-centrality. The information required to estimate sys-
temic risk is generally available to central banks. The central idea
of this paper is to test regulation schemes with different degrees of
transparency and their impact on systemic risk. The rst scheme
reects the situation today, where banks dont know about the sys-
temic impact of other banks. This mode is referred to as the normal
mode. The second mode, referred to as the transparent mode, in-
troduces a minimum regulation scheme, where banks choose their
IB trading partners based on their DebtRank. The philosophy of
this scheme comes from the fact that borrowing from a systemi-
cally dangerous node can make the borrower also dangerous, since
she inherits part of the risk, and thereby increases overall systemic
risk. We implement this scheme by making the DebtRank of all
banks visible to those banks that want to borrow. The borrower sees
the DebtRank of all its potential lenders, and is required (that is
the regulation part) to ask the lenders for IB loans in the order of
their inverse DebtRank. We test the two modes with a simple agent
based model consisting of banks, rms and households. The model
is rich enough to allow cascading bank failures affect the real econ-
omy. We show that the systemic risk in the nancial network can
be drastically reduced by increasing transparency, i.e. making the
DebtRank of individual nodes (banks) visible to all nodes and by
imposing a rule, which reduces interbank borrowing from systemi-
cally risky nodes. The reduction of systemic risk is to a large extent
due to a massive reduction of cascading failures in the transparent
system. We explicitly show how this selection process re-shapes
the IB network from a random graph in the normal mode to a fat
tailed degree distribution in the transparent mode. This incentive
scheme does not reduce the efciency of the nancial network, but
fosters a more homogeneous distribution of risk within the system
in a self-organized critical way. For this we verify that neither the
volume of credit to rms (real economy) is reduced or lowered in
the transparent scheme, nor that the trading volume in the IB mar-
ket is lower than in the normal mode. On the contrary we even nd
a slight increase in trading volume in the transparent mode. We
nd that the performance of the method is surprisingly insensitive
to the choice of the particular centrality measure, or to the actual
topology of the IB relation network (scale-free or random). Also,
the average connectivity of the network is not relevant, as long as
it remains in sensible regions. This suggests that the essence of the
proposed scheme is that risk is spread more evenly across the net-
work, which practically eliminates cascading failures. We discuss
how to implement the proposed scheme into a regulation policy.
The proposal is that central banks regularly compute the DebtRank
of the asset-liability network (as reported or inferred from payment
systems), and make it available to all banks. To enforce the regula-
tion, the central bank could monitor IB loans through the payment
system, and severely punish borrowers who failed to nd less risky
lenders. Currently, banks have no incentive whatsoever to disclose
their systemic risk levels to others, and one could only force them
to do so, or formulated more positively create appropriate in-
centives. This is maybe only possible with changes in the current
jurisdiction.
16:00 16:20
Room A4
Contributed talk
Interest Rate Impacts On Articial Credit Market
Ranaivo Mahaleo Razakanirina and Bastien Chopard
In this paper we investigate the impacts of interest rate on an
articial closed credit market where there is no consumption and
no creation of cash. We consider as credit market a set of agents
which exchange cash between them as loans and debts. The debts
and the interests are paid back when the debts become mature.
The static topology of the interactions are built upon complex net-
works such as random, scale free and small world networks. The
investment level of cash of each agent may be set up. We nd that
the total debt accumulated within the market increases when the
interest rate increases. This leads the market to unstable state when
the total level of debt exceeds the total cash. The investment level
allows us to adjust the total debt accumulated within the market.
Reducing the investment of cash decreases the total debt. We nd
also that even with low total debt level which improves the stability
of the credit market, the evolutions of cash of the high page rank
agents diverge and go down until illiquidity.
16:20 16:40
Room A4
Contributed talk
Random Matrix Theory And Information Theory Methods: A
Mixing Proposal To Highlight Relevant Information From Finan-
cial Data
Jose Salgado and Jose Matos
In the study of multivariate time series, Information Theory and
Random Matrix Theory methods are complementary methods.
Entropy, a special case of Kullback-Leibler divergence, is one of the
key measures of Information Theory. Random Matrix Theory deals
with matrix-valued random variables and is of interest to lter the
relevant information over statistical uctuations in cross correlation
matrices.
Random Matrix Theory and Information Theory have a wide
range of applicability, like, for example, multivariate statistics,
computer science, nuclear physics, signal processing, cryptography,
quantum computing and number theory.
The main objective of this work is to present a mixing proposal
in this effort to combine Information and Random Matrix Theories
in the study of the most relevant worldwide stock market indices
in a multivariate scenario. In this proposal we took into account
the systems dynamics and the time dependency of the most signif-
icant eigenvalues extracted from the covariance matrices. The joint
use of Information and Random Matrix Theories in nance gives a
complementary view of the data in order to search for early warn-
ing information and for signs of information transfer between time
series.
Chair: R. Carvalho
15:00 15:20
Room S9
Contributed talk
Human-Induced Changes In Structure And Dynamics Along
Caribbean Sea Food Webs
Luis J. Gilarranz*, Camilo Mora and Jordi Bascompte
Caribbean Reefs. The networks that describe who eats whom.
701 different locations. By simulating these networks dynamics
we get which species are more likely to go extinct in each of the
locations. Are human impacts diminishing the fraction of species
that will survive? We found that locations where the shing effort
is larger or humans more abundant, the local networks are less
modular, and larger is the number of species that perish during the
simulations. By indirectly altering the way species interact; human
impacts are decreasing the persistence of the networks.
15:20 15:40
Room S9
Contributed talk
WhoS The Spreader? Role Of Children Vs. Adults In The Local
Transmission And Spatial Dissemination Of Epidemics
Andrea Apolloni, Chiara Poletto and Vittoria Colizza*
Conrmed H1N1 pandemic cases during late spring and sum-
mer 2009 in various countries showed a substantial age shift be-
tween importations and local transmission cases, with adults
mainly responsible for seeding unaffected regions and children
most frequently driving community outbreaks. We introduce a
multi-host stochastic metapopulation model with two age classes
to analytically investigate the role of age-specic contact patterns
and mobility behaviors on the risk of a major epidemic. We allow
for variations of the model parameters to explore the conditions
of invasion under different scenarios, and use the 2009 H1N1 pan-
demic inuenza as a case study. We derive the expression for the
potential of global invasion of the epidemic that depends on the
transmissibility of the pathogen, the transportation network and
age-dependent mobility features, the demographic prole and the
mixing pattern. Higher assortativity in the contact pattern greatly
increases the probability of spatial containment of the epidemic,
this effect being contrasted by an increase in the social activity of
adults vs. children. Heterogeneous features of the mobility net-
work characterizing its topology and trafc ows strongly favor
the invasion of the pathogen at the spatial level, as also a larger
fraction of children traveling. Variations in the demographic prole
and mixing habits across countries lead to heterogeneous outbreak
situations. Model results are compatible with the H1N1 spatial
transmission dynamics observed. This work illustrates the impor-
tance of considering age-dependent mixing proles and mobility
features coupled together to study the conditions for the spatial
invasion of an emerging inuenza pandemic. Its results allow the
immediate assessment of the risk of a major epidemic for a specic
scenario upon availability of data, and the evaluation of the poten-
tial effectiveness of public health interventions targeting specic
age groups, their interactions and mobility behaviors. The approach
provides a general modeling framework that can be used for other
types of partitions of the host population and applied to different
settings.
15:40 16:00
Room S9
Contributed talk
Biochemical Networks In Proteomics And Metabolomics
Antoni Aguilar-Mogas*, Marta Sales-Pardo and Roger Guimera
The availability of biochemical data has increased over the years
due to advances in several techniques. This data processing can
benet greatly from using biochemical networks. For example,
one may construct a network with all the enzymes of an organism.
Those enzymes that share some common amino-acid sequence are
linked, shaping a complex network. Studying its properties can
lead us to conclusions about widespread functionality, essential
domains, or enzyme evolution. Another example is the metabolic
network, where two metabolites are connected if there is a reaction
that transforms one into the other. This brings the opportunity of
identifying those metabolites that are not already indexed.
16:00 16:20
Room S9
Contributed talk
A Graph Theoretical Approach For High-Throughput Chromatin
Conformation Data
Rasha E. Boulos, Alain Arneodo, Pablo Jensen and Benjamin Audit*
High-throughput chromatin conformation capture technique
provides unprecedented genome-wide quantitative characterization
of the 3D organization of DNA in vivo. We develop a graph the-
oretical approach to extract meaningful information from human
chromatin conformation data in relation to nuclear functions. We
show that the early replicating regions that delimit megabase-sized
replication domains are vertices of high degree-, betweenness-, and
eigenvector- centralities in the chromatin interaction network and
that they form long-distance interconnected hubs of DNA inter-
actions both within and in between chromosomes. Hence, these
"master" replication zones are likely at the heart of a high-order 3D
organization of the human genome.
16:20 16:40
Room S9
Contributed talk
Assessing The Signicance And Predicting The Effects Of Knock-
out Cascades In Metabolic Networks
Oriol Guell*, Francesc Sagues and M. Angeles Serrano
Complex networks have been shown to be robust against ran-
dom structural perturbations but vulnerable against targeted at-
tacks. The robustness of a metabolic network can be quantied by
removing individual or sets of nodes, followed by the assessment
of the inicted damage. It has been suggested that evolutionary
pressure may favor robustness against reaction removal. Here, a
cascading failure algorithm is used to simulate the removal of reac-
tions. The signicance of the presented results will be assessed by
comparing them with two different null models: degree preserving
and mass-balanced randomization. By performing this algorithm to
three known organisms, this analysis suggests that, although real
complex networks are robust, evolutionary pressure promotes large
cascades of non-viable reactions at the expense of some robustness.
In this way, the regulation of metabolism is more efcient. Further-
more, studies of knockout of genes will be commented in relation
with the essentiality of genes, showing that genes which regulate
high-damage reactions tend to be expressed independently of each
other.
Chair: J. Poncela
17:10 17:50
Auditorium
Keynote talk
Language Evolution: Complexity across Multiple Timescales
Morten H. Christiansen (Cornell University)
Why is language the way it is, and how did it come to be that
way? To answer these questions we need to understand the multi-
level complex system within which language evolution takes place.
In this talk, I highlight recent work that explores the complex in-
terplay across different timescales between biological evolution,
cultural transmission, and individual learning. I report results from
agent-based modeling pointing to strong restrictions on biolog-
ical adaptions for language. Instead, the t between the mecha-
nisms employed for language and the way in which language is
acquired and used can be explained by processes of cultural evolu-
tion shaped by the human brain. Evidence from cognitive science
and cognitive neuroscience are discussed, indicating how subtle
non-linguistic constraints, amplied by repeated cycles of learning
and use, can give rise to linguistic structure. I conclude that only by
appreciating the complexity of language evolution across multiple
timescales can we make sense of our unique ability for language.
17:50 18:40
Auditorium
Keynote talk
The evolution of technology
J. Doyne Farmer (University of Oxford)
In spite of the fact that technological improvement is widely rec-
ognized by economists as the primary driver of economic growth,
our current understanding of how technology improves and what
underlies this improvement is surprisingly poor. Economic histo-
rians have compiled a variety of fascinating case studies and anec-
dotes, but without any over-arching theory. We have recently begun
to collect and analyze a variety of datasets with the goal of build-
ing on this work by constructing more quantitative models. There
are many striking regularities that cry out for explanation. One of
these is the vast difference in rates of technological improvement.
For example, why it is that in the last fty years solar photovoltaic
technology dropped in price by nearly a factor of ve thousand
while nuclear power has increased in price by a factor of three? My
talk will review both the empirical and theoretical aspects of tech-
nological change, as well as the similarities and dissimilarities to
biological evolution.
Posters
Panel 1 Embodied Simulation Of Social Interaction And Its Use As A
Social Probe
Frances Grifths*, James Bown, Robin Durie, Alistair Sutcliffe, Jenny
Tennant Jackson and Alan Wineld
We describe the development of an embodied simulation of so-
cial interaction. Rather than directly modelling social processes,
our simulation seeks to prompt new questions from people about
social processes. The simulation uses collective robotics. Robots
interact with each other, people engage with the robots, and inter-
act with each other. Data is collected from both robots and people.
The disciplines represented in the project team include philosophy,
social and behavioural science, art, computer science, robotics, ecol-
ogy, engineering and computer science. We drew on research with
cultural probes to propose that robots can act as a social probe,
prompting insights into how society works. We suggest only a
loose coupling between robot interaction and human interaction,
but sufcient to prompt observers to ascribe social meaning to the
robot interactions and provide insights into social phenomenon. In
this exploratory study we programmed the robots to imitate a se-
quence of movement. Unlike in virtual simulation, variation in imi-
tated behaviour occurs because the robots are physically embodied.
We specied the robot demonstration through iteration between
team design of the representation and hardware and software de-
velopment, then engaged school children to observe the robots.
Our analysis of robot data indicates there was variation in imitated
behaviours and evidence of a robot version of social learning. The
children talked about the robots playing a game, a metaphor for
an emergent pattern of behaviour resulting from the repeated im-
perfect embodied imitation enacted by the robots. Having formed
an effective multidisciplinary team and solved considerable tech-
nical challenges, we have developed an embodied simulation with
potential for use as a social probe. With further research the simu-
lation can incorporate more complex robot interaction for exploring
various social issues, and engage a range of audiences to consider
how society works relatively unencumbered by social heritage.
Panel 2 A Political Speech Analysis Based On Network Properties
Broncio Aguilar-Sanjuan*
We study the organisation and structure of political speech by
means of network properties. Our approach is based on a recently
designed method (AdQaT)to classify and assess political speech
quantitatively. The corresponding classication of speeches is car-
ried out in terms of their cognitive features, leading to nineteen
sub-dimensions. Thus, each speech is prepared as a relation be-
tween cognitive patterns and sentences. By using such a format,
the corresponding analysis of each speech is performed by bipartite
network analysis through its projections. Our results show signi-
cant differences in degree distribution, P(k), assortativity by degree,
knn(k), as well as betweenness centrality, Cb, amongst different
speeches by different speakers and from different contexts, and also
interestingly in comparison to a random classication of cognitive
patterns for each speech.
Panel 3 Modeling The Leishmaniasis By Using Multi-Agents Systems
Viviane Galvao*, Jose G. V. Miranda and Roberto F. S. Andrade
In this work, we have developed a computational model for the
immune re-sponse to Leishmania major infection by using multi-
agent systems. In our model, we have seven different cell types:
Leishmania major, CD4-T cell (resting and activated), macrophage
(resting, activated, infected, chronically infected), eosinophil (rest-
ing and activated), neutrophil, dendritic cell (resting and activated),
and keratinocyte. Furthermore, there are void sites to simulate the
mobility of the cells. Our model can simulate migration, activation,
phagocytosis, and cellular death. The results show that the kinetics
of different cell types does not change for different lattice size.
Panel 4 The European Trade Network: Measuring Imbalances And Inte-
gration
Gautier Krings, Jean-Franois Carpantier and Jean-Charles Delvenne*
We use network theoretic tools to study the European trade net-
work from 1993 to 2007 and assess the the progress of integration of
EU economies, inside and outside the Euro zone, as well as the evo-
lution of the Euro zone.While many economic studies focus on local
quantities, such as the trade-to-GDP ratio of a country (where trade
sums imports and exports) or the net trade between two countries,
to answer those questions, we highlight that looking at the net-
work in its globality and looking at indirect trade ties between two
countries in addition to direct trade allows a sharper picture of
the evolution of the European economies, in particular their grow-
ing integration and growing imbalances.In order to do so, we use
classical tools, such as commute-time distance, reinterpreted in an
economic context, and new tools, such as the decomposition of the
trade ows into a symmetric, cyclic and acyclic part, the latter being
itself decomposed into a sparse set of paths that offer an interpreta-
tion of the trade imbalances in terms of nal debitor/nal creditor
pairs, along with their intermediates.
Panel 5 Non-Invasive Procedure To Probe The Route Choices Of Com-
muters In Rail Transit Systems
Christopher Monterola*, Erika Fille Legara, Pan Di, Gary Lee and Terence
Hung
Accurately determining the probability of various route choices
is critical in understanding the actual spatiotemporal ow of com-
muters and the instantaneous capacity of trains and stations. Here,
we report a novel procedure that determines the route choice
of commuters in a rail transit system (RTS) based solely on the
recorded tap-in tap-out ticketing data. Using statistical mechanics,
we derived the signature travel time distribution of a specic route,
from origin O to a destination D. Any particular route can then be
considered as a superposition of this mapping function and one
can compute the probability that a specic path, over other pos-
sible paths, is taken by a commuter from O to D. The procedure
is demonstrated by considering different scenarios using tap-in
tap-out data from Singapores RTS and show that the forecasted
characteristic prole deviates by less than 10
5
from the actual dis-
tribution. We discuss how the method can be utilized in probing
commuter behavior and directly infer the effects of added lines in
route choices of the commuting public.
Panel 6 Intelligent Urban Morphology. A Methodological Proposal For
Modelling The Evolution Of Urban Form
Giovanni Fusco* and Diego Moreno
The aim of this contribution is to set the basis of a study of the
evolution of urban forms as self-organizing systems. The elements
of urban morphology can be consider as intelligent, in this sense
that their evolution can be explained through morphological and
topological rules, regardless of human decisions. These morpho-
logical elements (buildings, streets, plots) retrieve information from
their environment to dene their own properties. This assumption
echoes a seminal research position rst proposed by Hillier and
Hanson (1984) which has often been overlooked. An agent-based
modelling approach is proposed to explore different kind of rules
involved in growth and change of urban forms.
Panel 7 Complex Adaptive Systems With Inference Learning Emergent
Property To Estimate Tailored To The Problem Specicity Mathe-
matical Transforms: Three Study Cases
Antonio Glaria*, Herman Zepeda, Steren Chabert, Mariela Hidalgo,
Jacques Demongeot and Carla Taramasco
Articial Neural Networks (ANN) are complex adaptive systems
used in nonlinear data modeling; inference or associative learning
are main emergent phenomena in these systems and trained Mul-
tilayer Feedforward Networks (FFN) are Universal Approximators
in vector spaces. These are key ANN properties to develop tech-
nologies that tailor mathematical transforms to the specicities of a
problem. In perspective, Joseph Fourier published his work on heat
propagation in 1808; in 1822 he realized that functions with period
T of one or two variables, whether continuous or discontinuous,
can be expanded in a series of sines or cosines of multiples of that
variables; Fourier Series (FS) are established as linear combination
(LC) of sinusoidal harmonics multiples of a fundamental frequency,
f0= 1/T which models periodic functions; Legendre mthode des
moindres carrs is used to evaluate LC coefcients. After FS def-
inition, a schematically six stages process is observed to upgrade
Fourier; LC of base elements and Legendre method generally
apply: a) From FS to Fourier Transform (FT): FT applies to ape-
riodic functions, period ranges from +/- Y; Euler relation allows
rewriting sinusoids as imaginary variable exponential functions and
harmonic coefcients become continuous functions of frequency;
FS is considered a particular FT. b) From FT to Linear Transforms
(LT): new orthogonal bases, such as particular polynomials, replace
for FT exponentials; FT is a particular case of LT. c) From LT to
Wavelet (WT): different limited time duration ondelettes are new
orthogonal bases in WT; LT and FT can be considered particular
cases of WT. d) From LT to Frames: Frames succeed in managing
nonorthogonal bases; Moreover bases can be statiscally rooted; LT
can be considered a particular case of Frames. e) From FT and WT
to Dynalet Transforms (DT): DT was dened to compactly char-
acterize periodic biological signals generated by homeostatic sys-
tems; Van der Pol oscillator dynamic -a particular case of Linard
systems- is used to produce DT bases which replace for perma-
nent and damped circular dynamics which dene FT and Haley
WT bases. f) From LT to Tailored to Problem Specicity Transforms
(TPS): physiologically plausible functions, which represent actual
generators of recorded phenomena, replaced for previous bases;
These bases can be nonorthogonal and parametrized; When ap-
plied to explicit base functions, Frames can be particular cases of
TPS. FFN ANN properties are being determinant to estimate TPS
transforms. Three study cases are presented. I. Auditory Brain Stem
Responses (ABR) are modeled using delayed relaxation functions
that characterize each ABR Jewett component. Five coefcients and
15 parameters are estimated; Let %MSE be Relative Mean Square
Error then, for real ABR (n=34), 3% < %MSE < 16%, for syn-
thetic ABR (n= 2009) %MSE < 0, 1%. II. TPS methodology is being
adapted to estimate coefcients and parameters: II.1 In DT van
der Pol oscillator; TPS methodology used analog computers tech-
niques to build up ANN learning set; For a single case, results are
being similar to those obtained through Hamiltonian and Potential
function evaluation; DT rst harmonic is characterized by its coef-
cient and three parameters. II.2 To personalize Glover equations
used to model Hemodynamic Response Function (HRF) in f-MRI.
This transform is dened to estimate this equation coefcient and
four parameters. Results obtained by conventional Levenberg-
Marquardt Algorithm (LMA) and TPS methodology are being sim-
ilar: %MSE = 38, 44% for LM evaluation and %MSE = 39, 72% for
TPS evaluation; when applied to HRF of a single healthy volunteer
undergoing f-MRI recorded at the Valparaiso, Carlos van Buren
Public Hospital. Finally, it is claimed that TPS, because of phys-
iologically plausible bases, increases interpretability and, due to
FFN, decreases Algorithm Complexity. FFN accuracy is critically
sensitive to RNA Learning Set data representativeness. Therefore
UNESCO Complex System Digital Campus aimed to potentiate
collaborative networks could be an adequate environment to enrich
representativeness in ANN Learning Set data.
Panel 8 Measuring And Understanding Segregation
David Haw*, John Hogan and Simon Burgess
The emergence of segregation in social systems has been the
object of many studies, and the complex nature of this phenomenon
has resulted in a range of proposed measures. Classical segregation
measures often involve geographical data and groupings of agents,
each measure quantifying a different feature of segregation. Recent
research in social systems has however focused on networks of
social interactions that often transcend geographical proximity.
We investigate the concepts of homophily (Currarini et. al., 2009)
and centrality (Bonacich, 1972) using known network topologies
including random networks and small-world networks, introduc-
ing varying degrees of segregation into the systems. Most notably,
we compute the Spectral Segregation Index (Echenique and Fryer,
2007) on such networks, studying its relationship with topological
features such as connectivity and degree distribution. This allows
for a deeper understanding of the measurement and the informa-
tion it reveals.
Panel 9 Evolution Of Genotype-Phenotype Mapping In A Von Neumann
Self-Reproduction Within The Platform Of Tierra
Declan Baugh* and Barry McMullin
John von Neumann rst presented his theory of machine self-
reproduction in the late 40s, in which he described a machine
capable of performing the logical steps necessary to accommodate
self-reproduction and provided an explanation in principle for
how arbitrarily complex machines can construct other ("offspring")
machine of equal or even greater complexity. This project imple-
ments the von Neumann architecture for self-reproduction within
the pre-existing evolutionary platform of Tierra, which implements
a (mutable) genotype-phenotype mapping during reproduction.
Initially, the memory image of the automatons genotype and phe-
notype are physically identical, and each symbol in memory may
be interpreted as either as passive numerical data (g-symbol), or a
functional instruction (p-symbol) depending on how the symbol
is interpreted. If redundancy is introduced to a mutable genotype-
phenotype mapping, the mapping system becomes non-invertible,
rendering it impossible to compute an automatons exact genotypic
memory image by analysis of the phenotype alone. However, this
non-invertible mapping may allow for a more robust genotype, in-
creasing its robustness to fatal mutations and therefore increasing
its ability to preserve its phenotypic form under perturbations.
Panel 10 Predicting Self-Assembly Of Patches On Spheres
Erik Edlund*, Oskar Lindgren and Marin Nilsson Jacobi
Self-assembly is one of the most important sources of complexity
in chemistry and nanoscience. A promising building block for
directed self-assembly is the patchy colloid, nanoparticles with
patches on their surfaces that gives them interactions analogous to
atomic bonds. One way to fabricate such particles is to coat them
with ligands that spontaneously organize into patches, i.e. to use
self-assembly on a lower level. We present an analytic method for
predicting this self-assembly directly from effective interaction
models. We formulate such a model for the commonly studied
alkanethiol-on-gold system and show that its morphologies are well
predicted by the method.
Panel 11 Novel Behaviour On A Real-World Directed Inter-Firm Network
Nicky Zachariou, Paul Expert*, Misako Takayasu and Kim Christensen
We nd strong evidence of the existence of a new universality
class of the directed sandpile model when generalised to directed
complex networks. On strictly layered networks only two uni-
versality classes exist; the scaling exponent of the avalanches size
probability density function is either = 4/3, the exponent of the
two-dimensional directed sandpile universality class or = 3/2, the
mean eld universality class exponent. However, a new universality
class with exponent 1.87 emerges when the dynamics evolves
on the non-layered Japanese inter-rm network.
Panel 12 Applying Simple Community Detection To Spatial Networks Of
Bikeshare Flows From Five Cities
Martin Zaltz Austwick, Oliver OBrien*, Emanuele Strano and Matheus
Palhares Viana
We examine bikeshare schemes from four US (Boston, Denver,
Minneapolis and Washington DC) and one UK city (London), cre-
ating networks based on weekday and weekend ow volumes. We
present summary network and journey statistics which allow ag-
gregate comparison of the schemes, and visualizations and cluster-
based community detection which faciliate individuated study of
each city. Applying spatial network methods allows us to go be-
yond Toblers rst law of geography and detect communities
linked by more than proximity.
Panel 13 Analysis Of Of Artists Concerts From 19Th Century To Nowadays
Using The Mathematical Model Of Hit Phenomena
Kawahata Yasuko, Ishii Akira* and Genda Etsuo
A mathematical model for the hit phenomenon in entertainment
within a society is presented as a stochastic process of interactions
of human dynamics. The model uses only the time distribution
of advertisement budget as an input, and word-of-mouth (WOM)
represented by posts on social network systems is used as data to
compare with the calculated results. If only reviewed measured
to compare with peoples interest predicted by the mathematical
model and the number of performances as input, this technique
should not be limited to only today.So we made a note to kabuki
was a popular entertainment in the Edo period in the 19th century
from the 17th century. Kabuki in the Edo period was different from
standing position as a traditional performing arts in modern. Meth-
ods of mathematical models in Hyundai has been selected topics
in SNS through the Internet, they do not exist in the Edo period.
In order to perform the calculation and measurement of popular
artists of the Edo period, we were subject to publication of the pa-
per medium is the only media at the time (ukiyo- e, poem, haiku,
tile engraving, book) to there.With this approach, the study of past
popular actor, with respect to the reputation of masterpiece can be
also from the perspective of current. We are expected in the future a
similar study Shakespeare, Van Gogh, Mozart, and Beethoven.
Panel 14 The Origin Of Human Heterogeneity: Analyzing Mobility Behav-
ior Through Gsm And Gps Data
Luca Pappalardo, Filippo Simini, Salvatore Rinzivillo*, Dino Pedreschi
and Fosca Giannotti
In the last few years a special attention has been devoted to the
study of patterns and laws governing human mobility, thanks to
the availability of GPS and GSM data representing a good probe
to investigate human displacements and travels. Recently, re-
searchers from different disciplines discovered that traditional
models adapted from the observation of particles and animals are
not suitable to describe peoples movements, since a huge variabil-
ity characterizes the typical distance traveled by each individual,
denoting a high heterogeneity in mobility habits. At the same time
human movements are far from being erratic since the whereabouts
of most individuals can be predicted with very high accuracy. Al-
though these discoveries have shed light on interesting aspects of
human mobility, the origin of such variability and predictability
and its relations with social, economic and environmental dimen-
sions still remains unclear: Which are the factors that shape the
observed global heterogeneity? What are the roles of the underly-
ing social network and the socio-economic context? Is it possible to
extract subpopulations of similar individuals presenting homoge-
neous mobility characteristics?
Addressing the above questions is a complex task that requires
a dualistic approach that combines strengths and weakness of
disciplines emerged from different scientic communities: net-
work/complexity science and data mining research.
In our work, the goal is at acquiring a deeper understanding of
the mechanisms that produce the observed mobility patterns by
offering a comprehensive macro-micro analysis of human mobility.
Starting from the analysis of large datasets storing mobility data,
we extend known mobility measures and introduce useful models,
in order to develop a methodology to split population in clusters of
individuals with more homogeneous mobility characteristics.
Panel 15 An Application Of Joint Spectral Radius In Power Control Prob-
lem For Wireless Communications
Vahid Bokharaie* and Gholamreza Parsaee
Resource management, including power control, is one of the
most essential functionalities of any wireless telecommunication
system. Various transmitter power-control methods have been de-
veloped to deliver a desired quality of service in wireless networks.
We consider two of these methods: Distributed Power Control and
Distributed Balancing Algorithm schemes. We use the concept of
joint spectral radius to come up with conditions for convergence of
the transmitted power in these two schemes when the gains on all
the communications links are assumed to vary at each time-step.
Panel 16 Quantifying Competitive Strategy Impact On Supply Chain Mar-
ket Behaviour: A Cellular Automata And Information Theory
Approach
Jose V. Matos*, Rui J. Lopes and Yasmin Merali
Increasing concern about market crises in a networked world
highlights the need for a comprehensive and applicable quantita-
tive methodology to assess the impact of competitor strategies on
supply chain behaviour. We introduce a methodology grounded in
sustainability science and information theory measures to provide a
quantitative analysis of the impact of competitor strategies on mar-
ket turbulence. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by ap-
plying it to a multi-layered cellular automata supply chain model.
The results obtained corroborate the adequacy of our method-
ological approach, providing a consistent measure of the market
turbulence, including important elements relating to co-evolution of
the competitors congurations in terms of orderly (in connection
with the rules that govern competitors strategy) and disorderly
(remaining indeterminacy) behaviour components.
Panel 17 Dynamic Analysis Of The Us Short- And Long-Term Interest
Rates Relationships: On The Role Of Monetary Policy
Catherine Kyrtsou*, Anastasios Malliaris and Christina Mikropoulou
The spread between long- and short-term interest rates contains
valuable information about market expectations. These expectations
include assessments about the conduct of monetary policy and
its impact on macroeconomic conditions. When monetary policy
enters an easing phase, with decreases in US short-term interest
rates, long-term interest rates often decline but not systematically.
In contrast, when it becomes tighter with increasing short-term
rates, long-term rates usually also rise; although, exceptions can
exist. Nonetheless, the extent of these movements has not been
clearly determined thus far. This paper proposes an alternative
methodology including nonlinear co-trending testing, structural
breaks identication, nonlinear causality as well as RQA invariant
measures, to study the deeper dynamic relationship between short-
and long-term interest rates. We discover a nonlinear connectivity
which is inuenced by the behavior of both Fed and agents deci-
sion mechanisms, a property that is closely related to expansionary
and contractionary phases of the U.S. monetary policy.
Panel 18 Online Communities: Social Networks And Ofine Interactions
Spyros Angelopoulos* and Yasmin Merali
This paper focuses on online communities and the possibilities
that exist for crossing or even transcending the boundary between
existence in the digital and virtual worlds. It presents the results
of a longitudinal study of an online community of cigar smokers,
tracing the interactions of its members over a period of eighteen
months. Our methodological approach combines social network
analysis (SNA) with content analysis of the conversations between
members to explore the emergent network structure and dynam-
ics and the way in which ofine interactions of members relate to
sociability in the online community. We identify the emergence of
distinctive patterns of interaction that persist over the course of the
study and are associated with a mix of behaviours that include play,
trading and gifting, and entail the exchange or ow of informa-
tional and material objects.
Panel 19 Learning Graph Dynamics From A Single Snapshot
Jan Ramon and Constantin Comendant*
Often, not all processes in a complex system can be observed.
This makes it challenging to understand from the available data
the details of the underlying processes. We argue that the develop-
ment of specic statistical methods may be valuable to address this
problem. In this paper, we explore one possible direction. In par-
ticular, we consider the problem where we can observe a network
which we hypothesize to have emerged from one or more of a set
of preferential attachment processes. We derive a method to infer
the relative importance of the several processes. We also present
experimental results on a synthetic dataset.
Panel 20 Meta-Analysis Of Microarray Data To Gain New Insight Into The
Biology Of Aging And Healthspan Extension
Diana David-Rus*, Patrick Nef and Monica Driscoll
The rapidly growing elderly population inevitably confronts an
increased risk for debilitating diseases and virtually certain decline
in muscle strength over time, which adds up to serious health and
economic concerns for both the individual and society. A critical
health priority is thus to understand the basic biology of aging
and to dene strategies for the delay/prevention of components of
age-related decline. Given the existence of several "public" mech-
anisms of aging (those conserved across species), simple models
have become important tools for elaborating the basic biology of
aging. Our lab uses the nematode C. elegans to identify conserved
mechanisms of aging. Note that 50
Panel 21 Actor Conict Model And Time Delays
Ivan Fernandez-Rosales, Daniel Aguilar, Larry S. Liebovitch and Lev
Guzman-Vargas*
We present a study of time delay effect on an actor conict
model based on nonlinear differential equations. The state of each
actor depends on its own state in isolation, its previous state, its
inertia to change, the positive or negative feedback and a time de-
lay in the state of the other actor. Both theoretical and numerical
approaches are used to characterize the evolution of the system for
several values of time delays. Our results show that, under partic-
ular conditions, a time delay leads to the appearance of oscillations
in the states of actors. Besides, phase portraits for the trajectories
are presented to illustrate the evolution of the system in the case
of two actors for different time delays. Moreover, we extend our
analysis to N actors located on a small-world network. We nd
that when time delays are present, the system of actors has a gen-
eralized oscillatory behavior. Finally, we discuss our results in the
context of social conict models.
Panel 22 Modeling Grid Environments As A Small-World Network. An
Efcient Resources Selection Model
Maria Boton-Fernandez, Francisco Prieto* and Miguel Angel Vega Ro-
driguez
In the last decade, Complex Network theory has been applied in
many disciplines to solve a wide range of problems. In particular,
Small-World networks are presented in many natural, biologi-
cal, social or transport networks.In the present work we apply the
Small-World principle for solving the resources selection problem
in grid computing environments (distributed systems composed
by heterogeneous resources which are geographically dispersed).
The proposed model aims to nd the most efcient resources in a
short number of steps and provides a self-adaptive ability to grid
applications.In the present contribution, a summary of this ERS (Ef-
cient Resources Selection) model is exposed. The obtained results
are also discussed.
Panel 23 Optimal Control Of Information Diffusion In Compartmental
Networks
Francesco De Pellegrini*, Eitan Altman, Tamer Basar, Stefania Ottaviano,
El-Azouzi Rachid and Wissam Chain
In many networked systems the process by whichinformation
spreads among agents is ruled by equations that aresimilar to those
of epidemics. In this context, the control of theinformation diffu-
sion process suggests a modeling frameworkwhere the objective
is to deliver information to some specictarget, e.g., one agent or
a group of agents, within a prescribedtime frame. However, infor-
mation diffusion may be subject toa social cost, so that the design
of information diffusion controlmechanisms should obey to certain
target budget on the numberof infected agents. How to allocate
such a budget when agents have differentspreading power is an
optimal control problem which is tackledin this paper. We present
the results related to the controlof information diffusion where
multiple classes of nodes coexist,i.e., the structure of the system is
of compartmentaltype. We specialize the description of cost-delay
tradeoffs as anoptimization problem based on a meaneld approx-
imation.When ruling equations obey to specic product forms the
optimalcontrol is of bang-bang type. Under this general frame-
work,we analyze some specic cases where only sources can infect,
andprove that the optimal control is of threshold type. Further-
more,it induces an order among classes of agents which reects
theirpower as information spreaders.
Panel 24 Selection And Self-Organisation In Economic Evolution
Mercedes Bleda*
Explanations of the selection mechanism in economic evolution
have been traditionally given following the biological analogy of
natural selection. However, many evolutionary economists have re-
cently disengaged from biological analogies, and understood selec-
tion as a general evolutionary mechanism that operates distinctively
in the economic and biological domains. Within this perspective,
the evolutionary approach is considered a general theory applica-
ble to different domains, and selection is dened as a fundamental
evolutionary force working in all open complex evolving systems.
Embracing this complex dynamic view implies the acknowledg-
ment of the inuence of self-organisation forces in processes of
evolutionary change. While the existence of self-organising fea-
tures in the dynamics of complex open systems is now recognised
practically in all evolutionary disciplines, the relationship between
selection and self-organisation continues to be the object of a fun-
damental debate. The way selection and self-organisation interact
with each other, as well as their relative importance in the evolu-
tion and order generation of systems constitute currently the main
points of controversy. These questions have been more extensively
discussed in evolutionary biology in particular by works following
the pioneering effort of Weber and Depew (1996); however they
have remained fairly under researched in the economic sphere. This
paper is an attempt to ll this gap exploring the different ways in
which selection and selection can be integrated in explanations of
economic evolution with a focus on the study of their mutual inu-
ence in the evolution of rms. Since, evolution operates differently
in the natural and economic world, the relationship between selec-
tion and self-organisation will also vary between these domains.
From a heuristic point of view, however, the possible logic relations
between both forces are the same. Hence, the paper investigates the
relationship between self-organisation and selection in economic
evolution as suggested in evolutionary biology, analysing their
different implications in the economic domain.
Panel 25 Correlations In Networks With Generalized Non-Linear Prefern-
tial Attachment
Tatiana Progulova*
We study the presence of correlations in growing networks with
the generalized non-linear preferential attachment (GNPA). We
show that the change of the GNPA exponent from negative values
to positive ones is accompanied with both the transition from large
worlds to small ones and the transition from assortative to random
networks and further to disassortative networks.
Panel 26 Lattice-Gas Model For The Spreading Of Infectious Diseases
With Spontaneous Behavioral Changes
Antonella Liccardo* and Annalisa Fierro
We present a stochastic SIR model for inuenza spreading on
a D-dimensional lattice, with spontaneous behavioral changes.
The lattice represents the dynamic contact network of individuals.
An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves
on it. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive in-
teraction between individuals belonging to the same age-class.
The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are xed
tting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, fur-
nished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model
with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive
mobility restrictions complete the model. Different mechanisms
for spreading awareness of the risk of contagion, which induces
spontaneous behavioral changes in the population and interferes
with the progression of the epidemic itself, are also added to the
model. The awareness mechanisms are also calibrated on available
data on awareness and concern collected by the behavioral risk
factor surveillance systems. The model is validated against the age-
distributed Italian epidemiological data for the inuenza A(H1N1)
during the 2009/2010 season, with sensible predictions for the epi-
demiological parameters. We nd that, whenever the accordance
between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data
is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical
and the experimental epidemiological data. Furthermore, a bet-
ter agreement between simulated and gathered data on awareness
and concern leads to a better accordance between simulated and
experimental epidemiological data.
Panel 27 Dynamical Resilience And Activity Patterns Of Scale-Free Neural
Networks
Pablo Piedrahita*, Juan Jose Mazo, Mario Floria and Yamir Moreno
We study the dynamics of integrate-and-re excitable elements
on top of scale-free topologies. We show that for small network
sizes, there are irregular global signals, but when larger networks
are considered a transition to periodic behavior occurs. These reg-
ular patterns are in the high-frequency domain as the result of,
what we call, saturation effect, which is in turn a consequence of
both topology (hubs) and high amplitude (homogeneous) pulses.
In order to avoid saturation and enhance periodic activity, we in-
troduce a relation between topology and dynamics by linking pulse
amplitudes to node degree (heterogeneity), which leads to global
coherent oscillations regardless of the size of the network. Finally,
we explore to what extent it is possible to control the signal of the
ongoing dynamics as well as the dynamical robustness of the sys-
tems (in terms of its activity) when a damage of the network is
simulated.
Panel 28 Land Use Characterization And Applications In Integrated City
Planning
James Decraene*
To address the challenges posed by rapid urbanization, age-
ing population, energy cost, environmental constraints, among
others, a way to quantify the similarity and difference of existing
land allocations among cities is essential. Such a measure may
allow comparison on the quality of life and general wellness of
the residing population, hence, a step closer towards achieving
an objective metric for properly representing sustainability index.
Dening a measure to differentiate cities remains a critical chal-
lenge both for domain practitioners and information scientists. We
previously demonstrated [1] that by combining the relative mix-
ing (using the index of dissimilarity) of distinct land use sectors,
i.e., business, residential, industrial, in a given area and how they
are relatively spread (using spatial entropy) over the entire local-
ity, we can quantify the degree of similarity and distinctiveness
of land design attributes among cities.We showed that the combi-
nation of these two parameters provides a straightforward means
of probing the common and unique attributes of Singapore and
other North American cities. For example, we reported that a dis-
tinctive spatial characteristic of cities is for industrial districts to
be consistently clustered and segregated from the other land use
sectors while residential are generally dispersed and mixed with
business areas.Land use is naturally connected and interdepen-
dent to other urban constituents such as transport, energy, water
distribution, etc. In addition to our research in land use characteri-
zation and city differentiation, we investigate how our quantitative
procedure can be applied to examine heat island effects and trans-
port demand. Specically we have constructed predictive analytical
models, which based on the properties of the land use in Singapore,
can forecast:1. The mean temperature of a land parcel and,2. local
transport demand, in other words, the number of passengers board-
ing at a given bus or subway station at a specic time.Firstly, our
results show that the mean temperature of a given land use parcel
can be accurately predicted (within 5% error) using the composition
of the land. Moreover we show that the spatial entropy properties
of the different land use sectors can be utilized to predict the mean
temperature. The results also indicate that the amount of greeneries
are negatively correlated with the mean temperature; Whereas the
density of industrial development is positively correlated with tem-
perature.Secondly, we demonstrate that transport demand can be
forecast at a bus/subway station at a specic time given the com-
position of surrounding land use. Although the overall transport
demand distribution over time can be approximated using our land
use - transport model, further work remain necessary to provide
more accurate predictions.This research aims at building an in-
tegrated city planning platform which addresses urban planning
from a complex systems perspective where multiple domains are
tackled simultaneously and modelled at a ned grained level. The
work reported here presents some preliminary studies and appli-
cations which examine interdependencies between land use, heat
island effects and transport demand. Future work will examine the
energy, which to some extent is related to heat island effects, and
housing demand problematics.References[1] Decraene J, Monterola
C, Lee GKK, Hung TGG (2013) a Quantitative Procedure for the
Spatial Characterization of Urban Land Use. International Journal
of Modern Physics C 24: 1250092.
Panel 29 The Ising Model On A Brain Network Maximizes Information
Transfer At Criticality
Daniele Marinazzo, Mario Pellicoro, Jesus Cortes, Joaquin Goi and
Sebastiano Stramaglia*
We implement the Ising model on a structural connectivity ma-
trix describing the brain at a coarse scale. Tuning the model tem-
perature to its critical value, i.e. at the susceptibility peak, we nd
a maximal amount of total information transfer between the spin
variables. At this point, the net dynamics exhibits signature of the
law of diminishing marginal returns, an economics constraint that
states that at saturation levels of production, to increase the total
output is not possible to increase only one production factor, but all
of them have to be increased. Our results extend the recent analysis
of dynamical oscillators models on the connectome structure, tak-
ing into account lagged and directional inuences, focusing only on
the nodes that are more prone to became bottlenecks of informa-
tion. The ratio between the outgoing and the incoming information
at each node, is related to the instrength, it nevertheless seem to
capture also different aspects of important nodes in weighted brain
networks.
For each temperature we evaluate then the correlational pattern
and we nd the corresponding modular decomposition by modu-
larity maximization.
Panel 30 Ways Of Communicating - A Case Study
Antonio Fonseca* and Jorge Lou
Our research tries to approach a new perspective about commu-
nication in social media. Communication, the key aggregator of
social relationships, can be a determiner of inuence, popularity,
or leadership and has impact in many diverse aspects of societies.
In this paper we study communication through the perspective of
the origins and the targets of the information that is exchanged in
the communication act. To this purpose weve designed an agent
model with selective capabilities of information production and ex-
change. The model is parametrized according to a real life situation
collected as a Twitter online sample of conversations. Based on this
conguration the model is tested in a simulated social network. We
nd there is a strong dependence between information spreading
and the conscience parameters of the model. We characterize the
decay and saturation of discourse within the community, entropy of
word usage and also the relevance of agents. We also tested the op-
posing diffusion between two distinct word sets in order to examine
discourse persistence and opinion dominance. We hope to bring a
novel conceptual tool to the understanding of collective intelligence.
Panel 31 Complex Patterns Of Multiscale Human Mobility In United
Kingdom
Defne Askar* and Thomas House
Many of the real systems such as social, technological, biological
and informational systems can be described as complex networks.
In this study we are interested in two types of movement networks
that occur in the United Kingdom, which are internal migration
and commuting. United Kingdom 2001 Census data has been used
in order to analyze movement networks through complex network
tools at different spatial scales. Nodes represent locations in move-
ment networks rather than individuals and edges store the total
number of movements from one location to another. At larger scale,
we observed high correlations between in- and out-degree of each
location; however at smaller level degree correlations were not that
informative so we analyzed the network motif structures, which are
small patterns of interconnection that occur more frequently than
one would expect from random networks. We observed different
motif structures for internal migration and commuting networks.
The results for reciprocity, which characterises the simplest non-
trivial motif, are also presented in this study. A major motivation
for studying movement networks is to understand the inuence
of network characteristics on epidemic spreading. The epidemic
threshold for a network is closely related to the largest eigenvalue
of its adjacency matrix, which we calculate.
Panel 32 Statistics Of K-Th Nearest Neighbor Networks On Uniformly
Distributed Points On Circles
Romain Brasselet*
We study the statistics of k-th nearest-neighbor networks on uni-
formly distributed points on a lled circle. Each node is connected
to its neighbor of rank k. We computed, according to k and in the
continuum limit, the distances of each node to its k-th nearest-
neighbor and the distribution of neighborhood ranks of a given
node depending on its locus on the circle. We also computed the
community statistics of the network depending on k and exploited
a new graph entropy to summarize the results. The latter may
prove valuable in the theoretical study of unicast routing in mobile
ad hoc networks.
Panel 33 Non-Expert Investors Activity In Stock Market
Mario Gutierrez-Roig* and Josep Perello
Human activity is crucial to understand complex systems such as
nancial markets. From a dataset containing more than 3 millions
of transactions produced by 29,930 investors who trade with their
own money, we analyze individual activity proles. Huge hetero-
geneity comes up naturally in the inter-event times distribution,
what indicates a very different time horizon among the investors.
We also consider the inuences that price returns or volatility have
on individuals activity patterns.
Panel 34 Agent-Based Simulation Of Large Population Dynamics
Cristina Montaola-Sales*, Josep Casanovas, Jose Maria Cela-Espin,
Bhakti S. S. Onggo and Adriana Kaplan-Marcusan
Agent-based modelling and simulation is a promising method-
ology that can be used in the study of population dynamics. The
main reason is that the object of study in these disciplines, hu-
man society present or past, is difcult to analyse through classical
analytical techniques. In this context, agent-based modelling is
encouraging the introduction of computer simulations to exam-
ine behavioural patterns in complex systems. Given the inherent
complexity of population dynamics and structures, agent-based
simulation allows the implementation of experiments and studies
that would not be feasible otherwise. Agent-based modelling is
commonly used for small scenarios because the number of agents
and interactions between them can be extremely large in some of
case studies, thus forcing the scientist to limit its number in order
to execute the simulation in a standard computer. However, in the
case of policy models, both the amount of compute power required
and detailed micro-level data are signicant. To deal with complex
social models we can take advantage of parallel computation. Tra-
ditionally, parallel simulation has been applied in military and net-
work simulations. However, since 2005, we have seen an increase in
the number of papers reporting on parallel simulation applications
outside traditional areas, such as physics, supply chain or medicine
and biology. Despite being an encouraging situation, the number
of applications of parallel simulation in the social sciences is scarce.
A reason could be the scalability of agent-based models, one of
the main obstacles hindering the use of agent-based simulation es-
pecially if the analysis requires large-scale models. Agent-based
simulation scalability depends on many factors, notably the execu-
tion platform and the complexity of its agent-based model, which
in turn depends on the number of agents, the behaviour complex-
ity of each of them and the complexity of their communication.
It is not only important to address size problems but also to see
whether more realistic agent-based models with complex behaviour
and complex communication network can be scaled-up to provide
empirically and practically useful results. A possible solution to
this issue is to run the agent-based models on top of a scalable par-
allel discrete-event simulation engine.We present the design and
development of a modelling and simulation tool implemented to
provide basic support for simulating large-scale agent-based de-
mographic systems. The tool is a parallel demographic simulation
tool that simulates the interactions of individuals in a society based
on discrete-event modelling paradigm. It has three components: a
web user interface, a demographic simulation library and the sim-
ulation code generator. The web user interface allows demographic
modellers to specify demographic model components in a num-
ber of representations familiar to demographers such as regression
and statistical distribution function. The demographic simulation
library supports both sequential and parallel execution of the sim-
ulation model. The scalability of our tool has been studied already
in high performance computing systems. The simulation code gen-
erator can produce the corresponding C++ code that is linked to
the demographic simulation library which uses a scalable parallel
discrete-event simulation engine. The generated code is ready for
compilation using a target C++ compiler.Hence the main contri-
butions of our work are (1) to show an innovative application of
parallel simulation in demography, an important eld in social sci-
ence that is increasingly used as the basis for policy planning and
analysis, and (2) to demonstrate how agent-based simulation can be
run using a scalable parallel discrete-event simulation engine.
Panel 35 Sea Urchin Twins For A Quantitative Approach Of The Variabil-
ity In Animal Morphogenesis
Dimitri Fabreges*, Louise Duloquin and Nadine Peyrieras
Although leading to specic organisms through reproducible
processes, the embryonic development is intrinsically variable as
part of living systems potential for evolution and adaptation. The
processes underlying biological variation are still largely unknown.
Qualitative studies have led to the mathematical formal description
of variability. However, further understanding the multiscale pro-
cesses underlying biological variability requires quantitative mea-
surements and statistical analysis to identify the sources, the range
and the determinisms of variation. Previous work focused on the
variability of gene expression in bacterial strains or the sources of
variation in ecosystems, but the quantication of variability in the
developing organisms remains a difcult issue. The phenomenolog-
ical reconstruction of the cell lineage tree from 3D+time imaging of
live sea urchin embryos, either from normal populations of popu-
lations of twins, is the basis for a quantitative and formal approach
of the multiscale processes underlying the variability of embryonic
development.
Panel 36 The Role Of Narratives Propagated By Central Banks In The
Formation And Diffusion Of Expectations During The Economic
And Financial Crisis
Bruno Gaminha* and Jorge Lou
This research explores the processes of formation and diffusion
of economic expectations inuenced by temporally-related struc-
tures of meaning, here called narratives, that are propagated by
the Central Banks. Specically, it focuses on the evolution of the
economic narratives arising in the context of the world nancial
and economic crisis started in 2007, by capturing the evolution of
narratives within the keynotes of the European Central Bank board
members, the speeches from members of the Board of Governors at
the US Federal Reserve and The Economist articles as they evolve
under the inuence of critical events.
Panel 37 Understanding The Evolution Of The Internet Topology Through
Hierarchical Analysis
Yu Nakata*, ShinIchi Arakawa and Masayuki Murata
Understanding how the topology has been changing is important
for analyzing performance of applications and protocols. In this
paper, we investigate a process of evolution of AS-level topology in
the Internet by analyzing hierarchy of modules. We rst investigate
how top-level modules in the hierarchy are connected in the AS-
level topology. Our results show a trend that the amount of trafc
aggregated in the module before forwarding to other modules
had increased until about 2006. We then investigate the hierarchy
of modules. The result shows the amount of trafc that passes
through Tier-1 ASes increase as the AS-level topology evolves.
Panel 38 Regime Shifts In The Anthropocene
Juan Carlos Rocha Gordo*, Reinette Biggs and Garry Peterson
Over the past 50 years humans have changed ecosystems faster
and more extensively than in any other comparable period in the
past. These changes have contributed to various critical transitions
or regime shifts: abrupt, non-linear changes in social-ecological
systems that can severely impact the ux of ecosystem services
human societies rely upon. This paper explores the patterns of re-
lationships among driving causes of regime shifts using bipartite
networks. Relations among drivers of change are studied for 20
regime shifts in marine, terrestrial and polar ecosystems. Despite
regime shifts being multi-causal phenomena (with 2 to 19 drivers in
our dataset), results show that global drivers of regime shifts tend
to interact in a non-random pattern. Agriculture-related activities
and climate change related drivers are the main causes of regime
shifts. Marine regime shifts seems to happen at similar scales and
due to similar feedback mechanisms while terrestrial regime shifts
tend to be more idiosyncratic. Couplings between drivers suggests
that the management of well understood variables might not be
enough to prevent regime shifts; synergistic effects need to be ac-
counted for. Similarly, couplings between regime shifts calls for
more research on the likelihood of domino effects.
Panel 39 Exploring Complexity With A Package For R: Comin V1.0
Cristian Villate, Carlos Gershenson* and Nelson Fernandez
In order to facilitate and promote the measurement of com-
plexity for the understanding of a broad range of phenomena, a
package for R was developed. The computational aspects of Comin
V1.0 are based on recent work (Gershenson and Fernndez, 2012;
Fernndez et al., 2013). With Comin V1.0, the formal calculation
of information theoretical measures of complexity, emergence,
self-organization, homeostasis and autopoiesis is possible. Comin
V1.0 is a useful, easy and intuitive tool for studying and evaluating
general data and time series, illustrating the dynamical properties
related to order, change, self-regulation, and autonomy in complex
systems. In this context, we will describe and demonstrate the main
properties of Comin V1.0, to promote its use among the scientic
community.
Panel 40 Complexity Of Mammal Presence In A Tropical Forest
Nelson Fernandez, Diego Lizcano and Carlos Gershenson*
In recent years, the scientic study of complexity in ecological
systems has increased the understanding of a broad range of phe-
nomena, such as diversity, abundance, and hierarchical structure
(Lizcano and Cavelier, 2004; Cavelier et al., 2011).
Being complex, biological and ecological systems have prop-
erties such as emergence and self-organization. However, it has
been problematic to measure these properties in order to better
understand living systems. In thermodynamics, measures such as
temperature and pressure give us relevant information about the
type of thermodynamical system we face. We lack similar measures
for biological systems.
Using recently proposed measures based on information the-
ory (Gershenson and Fern Aandez, 2012; Ferna Andez et al.,
2013), we study presence-absence data of mammals in a tropical
forest in Costa Rica, thus obtaining measures of emergence, self-
organization, homeostasis, autopoiesis and complexity.
From our limited data, we can see that most species are not
present, thus having a low degree of emergence and complexity.
Species with a higher complexity seem to be more robust, while
those with a lower complexity seem to be at a higher risk at the
locations where the data was obtained. Further work is required
to test this hypothesis, but from this initial study we can conclude
that the proposed measures can complement the study of ecological
systems, biodiversity, and resilience.
Panel 41 Branching Process Cascades On Networks
Kevin OSullivan*
Small initial perturbations within certain populations and in-
frastructure can, on rare occasions, manifest itself in large cascades.
Applying branching process techniques to simulate the cascade
effect, we obtain power-law distributions for the cascade size with
exponent = 3/2 where the probability generating function has
nite second moment. We obtain a general analytic expression for
the cascade size distribution, which is governed by the nite rst
and second moments. Under strict conditions, we present an exact
time-dependent solution to the branching process equation.
Panel 42 Modelling Energy Storage With Optimal Control: Exploring The
Financial Viability Of Energy Storage
Ellen Webborn*, Robert MacKay and Michael Waterson
To achieve the goal of an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by
2050, the UK is anticipating a large shift towards energy produc-
tion from renewable energy sources. Due to the unpredictable and
intermittent nature of these resources, and the fundamental require-
ment that power supply must closely match demand to prevent
blackouts; effective implementation and operation of energy stor-
age will be vital for a successful low carbon future.Our work aims
to address economic issues faced by integrating large grid-scale
energy storage with the UK energy network. We combine optimal
control theory and mathematical modelling in an attempt to answer
the following questions: under what conditions are energy storage
devices nancially viable? Can we prove mathematically that in-
tegrating storage into the energy network would be benecial to
an investor, and additionally all suppliers and consumers? What
pricing structures would encourage efcient use of storage? What is
the best (most protable/most efcient) strategy for the operation
of storage?
Panel 43 Financial Market Price Fluctuation In View Of A Colloidal Parti-
cle In Water Molecules
Yoshihiro Yura*, Hideki Takayasu and Misako Takayasu
Through the analysis of high precision order-book data of for-
eign exchange markets provided by EBS, we conrmed similarities
between a colloidal particle suspended in water molecules and the
market price surrounded by limit orders. In the case of a colloidal
particle the driving forces are given by imbalance of collision of
molecules, while in the case of markets the price is driven by im-
balance of buy orders and sell orders. The collision of the particle
and molecules can be observed by dening the region of an imag-
inary particle on the order-book. [Y.Yura, H.Takayasu, D.Sornette,
M.Takayasu, submitted]
Panel 44 Friendship Growth And Management Driven By Social Processes
And Activities; Measurements, Stability And Behavior Cascading
Sasha Mile Rudan* and Sinisha Rudan
We researched on friendships growth and their successive man-
agement in the context of social processes and activities. We tried
to model friendships on micro level based on activities that are
marshaling between actors and changes and reactions those activi-
ties potentially have produced.In order to analyze social networks
we modeled friendships as macro-level reections of micro-level
ows of activities through the social network with actors (friends)
as nodes, and friendships as edges/links.Further on, we propose
measures for deciding on quality of friendships and on successive
building friendships and managing existing ones. We show how
friendships, built and managed at the level of micro-activities and
interests, achieve higher measures of friendship qualities. Finally
we observe how stable are inuences on friendships and how possi-
ble are behavior cascading through the social network.
Panel 45 Impacts Of Ubiquitous Computing In Human Niches: A View
From A Complex Systems Perspective
Maria Eunice Quilici Gonzalez*, Jose Artur Quilici Gonzalez, Mariana
Claudia Broens and Guiou Kobayashi
The objective of this paper is to investigate the emergent self-
organized properties of socio-cultural niches that include ubiqui-
tous computing. We are going to analyse the possible consequences
of the use of ubiquitous computing in social niches, involving af-
fordances for trust, surveillance and spontaneity and also problems
related to privacy in the construction of values during dynamic
agent-information technology interaction. To conclude, we are go-
ing to highlight the contributions of the complex systems approach
to the study of new kinds of behaviour emerging from human-
computer interactions.
Panel 46 Topology Of Brain Functional Networks
Hoang Le, Xerxes Arsiwalla*, Riccardo Zucca and Paul Verschure
We investigate the topology of human brain functional networks,
using fMRI data. We re-examine the question of whether the degree
distribution of these networks really scale as power-law (scale-free)
and which statistical tests are better suited to answer such ques-
tions. Earlier studies have all been based on least-square estimation
(Achard et al., 2006), (Eguiluz et al., 2005), which, according to
Clauset et al., 2009 is not a reliable estimator of power-law distribu-
tions. We reanalyze the data of Eguiluz et al., 2005, using maximum
likelihood methods. Interestingly, in most cases, the statistics do not
support a power-law, but rather the generalized Pareto distribution
(and in some cases exponentially truncated power-law).
Panel 47 Small-World Bias Of Correlation Matrix In Natural Complex
Systems
Jaroslav Hlinka*, Martin Vejmelka, David Hartman, Jaroslav Tintera and
Milan Palus
Complex systems are commonly studied by analysis of the prop-
erties of their graph representation. Dynamical complex systems
are in this approach typically represented by a graph of the tempo-
ral dependencies between the time series of state variables of each
subunit.
It has been shown recently that graphs constructed in this way
tend to have relatively clustered structure, potentially leading to
spurious detection of small-world properties even in the case of sys-
tems with no or randomly distributed true interactions. However,
the strength of this bias depends heavily on a range of parameters
and its relevance for real-world data has not yet been established.
In this work, we assess the relevance of the bias using two ex-
amples of natural complex system time series. The rst is the time
series of local brain activity as measured by functional magnetic
resonance imaging in resting healthy human subjects, the second
the time series of average monthly surface air temperature coming
from a large reanalysis of climatological data over the last 60 years.
In both cases, the clustering as well as quantitative small-world
index in the thresholded correlation graph is higher than in a real-
ization of a random graph of the same density, suggesting small-
world properties. However, the values are comparable or even
smaller than in a control process with preserved length and auto-
correlation structure, but randomly scrambled interconnections.
This suggests that the small-world properties of these systems can
not be based on this data attributed to the interaction structure, but
rather to the inherent properties of correlation matrix.
Panel 48 Landscape Change Linked To Fishing-Behavior Networks
Tracy Van Holt* and Jeffrey C. Johnson
Eutrophication in the nearshore environment due to landscape
change (tree plantation development) has changed the quality of
the shellsh forcing some shers to target other species. We tested
how the consequences of tree plantations (reduction in shellsh
quality) and alternative livelihoods affects the sher behavioral
network, the pairs of species that shers harvest in common, and
dominant species harvested, a network of species tied together by
the number of shers that harvest those species. Fishers with good
quality shellsh and those that do not rely exclusively on shing
harvested many of the same species combinations. Fishers with
poor quality shellsh and those that shed exclusively had more
diverse species combinations. These shers harvest outside of their
exclusive management areas and are commercializing other species
to adapt to the consequences of tree plantations.
Panel 49 Global System Science
Jeffrey Johnson*
Global System Science aims to create new science and technology
to support policy making and implementation across many ill-
dened interacting social and physical domains. GSS is about de-
veloping systems, theories, languages and tools for computer-aided
policy making with potentially global implications. Global means
holistic and in policy terms often involves systems worldwide,
e.g. banking and nance, climate change, cities, and epidemics. A
community of scientists coordinated by a consortium of European
projects is developing GSS as a research programme towards the
horizon of 2020.
Panel 50 Analyzing The Interplay Of Intra- And Inter-Connectivity Pattern
In The Multiplex Networks
Nikos Kouvaris*
Multiplex networks, i.e. networks consisting of inter-connected
layers, can model a variety of processes from natural or social sci-
ences. For instance, they can model signaling channels, which in
general participate in more than one type of interactions, thus per-
forming more than one tasks in parallel. They may also represent
complex ecosystems, where the migration of different species oc-
curs in different networks, or even social networks consisting of
interconnected individuals from different relationship networks. In
our study we focus linear processes on multiplex networks, whose
dynamical properties are reected to the spectral properties of the
Laplacian matrix. Diffusion dynamics in two interconnected layers
have been recently studied. The construction of the so-called supra-
Laplacian matrix was proposed as L = L_0 + D, where L_0 is a
block diagonal matrix which corresponds to the Laplacians of each
layer and D is the inter-layer adjacency matrix. Here, we generalize
this study in multiplex networks consisting of more than two lay-
ers, which can be interconnected in various ways according to the
matrix D. It is also possible that, the intra-layer links have different
weights than the links among the layers. We analyze the ratio of
these two weights as well as the role of the inter-layer adjacency
matrix on the spectral properties.
Panel 51 Systematic Approximations Of Neural Fields Through Networks
Of Neural Masses
Andreas Spiegler* and Viktor Jirsa
Full brain network models comprise a large-scale connectivity
(the connectome) and neural mass models as the networks nodes.
Neural mass models absorb implicitly a variety of properties in
their constant parameters to achieve a reduction in complexity. In
situations, where the local network connectivity undergoes major
changes, such as in development or epilepsy, it becomes crucial
to model local connectivity explicitly. This leads naturally to a
description of neural elds on folded cortical sheets with local and
global connectivity. The numerical approximation of neural elds
in biologically realistic situations as addressed in Virtual Brain
simulations (see http://thevirtualbrain.org/app/) is challenging
and requires a thorough evaluation if the Virtual Brain approach
is to be adapted for systematic studies of disease and disorders.
Here we analyze the sampling problem of neural elds for arbitrary
dimensions and provide explicit results for one, two and three
dimensions relevant to realistically folded cortical surfaces. We
characterize (i) the error due to sampling of spatial distribution
functions; (ii) useful sampling parameter ranges in the context of
encephalographic (EEG, MEG, ECoG and functional MRI) signals;
(iii) guidelines for choosing the right spatial distribution function
for given anatomical and geometrical constraints.
Panel 52 Routing And Rerouting In Weakly Dynamic Graphs
Moustafa Nakechbandi*, Jean-Yves Colin and Ahmed Salem Ould Cheikh
In this paper, we study weakly dynamic directed acyclic graphs.
In these weakly dynamic graphs with positive weighted arcs, one
or two arcs are known to be non stable. That is, the weight of each
of these non stable arcs may change at any time. All other arcs have
stable weights that never change. We are interested in the One-to-
All shortest path problem, that is, in nding what are the shortest
paths from one vertex to all other vertices of this graph. This must
be done considering the weights of the non stable arcs. Almost all
solution proposed in the literature are re-optimizing algorithms
that try to recompute the shortest paths as soon as the values of the
non stables arcs change. We propose an efcient algorithm that pre-
computes instead alternative shortest paths for all possible values
of the variable weights. When the non stable weights change, the
shortest paths for their new value may then directly and immedi-
ately be used without any recomputation.
Panel 53 The Structural Dimension Of Cooperation. Exploring The Net-
work Structure Of Collaborative Communities
Jordi Torrents* and Fabrizio Ferraro
Collaborative communities have emerged in the last few decades
in a variety of knowledge intensive occupations and organizations.
Previous research has explored the role of trust, governance rules
and identity in the emergence and development of these novel or-
ganizational forms. We suggest that a structural approach to the
social networks created among producers in collaborative commu-
nities might help better specify the underlying network structure
that characterize such communities. We explore the evolution of
the Debian Open Source Software community and compare two
models to characterize its collaboration network: small world and
structural cohesion. We show that developers at high levels of the
connectivity hierarchy of Debian collaboration network account
for most of the work done in the community. However the devel-
opers at these high positions have a high rate of turn over, in each
release new developers enter and some of the old ones depart. This
dynamic mechanism suggests the conformation of an open elite.
Drawing on the theoretical stream of collaborative communities
and on insights derived from the empirical analysis, we hypoth-
esize that the network structure of collaborative communities is
characterized by high levels of both local and global cohesion. This
network structure enables the generation and development of trust
among produces, which is the main coordination mechanism of the
community principle of social organization.
Panel 54 Modelling Dengue Fever Epidemiology: Complex Dynamics And
Its Implication For Data Analysis
Maira Aguilar and Nico Stollenwerk*
Dengue fever dynamics is well known to be particularly com-
plex with large uctuations of disease incidences. Mathematical
models describing the irregular behavior of dengue epidemics
are parametrized on data referring to incidence and ultimately
aim to be used as a predictive tool that can be used by the public
health authorities of disease control.Dengue fever (DF) is a viral
mosquito-borne infection, a major international public health con-
cern. With approximately 3 billion people at risk of acquiring the
infection, it is estimated that every year, there are 70
L500
million dengue infections, 36 million cases of dengue fever (DF)
and 2.1 million cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock
syndrome (DHF/DSS), with more than 20.000 deaths per year. In
many countries in Asia and South America DF and DHF leads
to serious socio-economic costs, and the threat of a possible out-
break of dengue fever now exists in Europe. Local transmission
of dengue was reported for the rst time in France and Croatia in
2010 and recently more than 2100 autochthonous cases of dengue
fever have been reported from the Autonomous Region of Madeira
in Portugal, the rst sustained transmission of dengue in the Eu-
ropean Union since the 1920s.In dengue fever epidemiology there
are four antigenically related but distinct serotypes (DENV-1 to
DENV-4). The occurrence of the virus as four distinct serotypes
raises many complications in the analysis and interpretation of
the available incidence data. Antibodies generated by exposure to
any one strain are known to be cross-reactive for other strains, but
they are believed only to provide strain-specic lifelong immunity
to reinfection, whereas subsequent infections by other serotypes
(one of the three heterologous serotypes) increase the risk of devel-
oping severe dengue. The immunological response on exposure
to a second strain is complex and may depend on factors such as
patient age, strain type and the interval between exposure to one
serotype and exposure to the second serotype. The high antibody
titers attained after primary infection appear to generate a degree
of cross-protection for a while, but if secondary exposure occurs
after antibody levels begin to decline, cross-reactivity appears to act
to enhance the growth rate of the new invading viral strain. This is
called antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) and its occurrence
in dengue has been used to explain the etiology of severe disease
(DHF and DSS).There is no specic treatment for dengue, and a
vaccine which simulate a protective immune response to all four
serotypes is not yet available. The potential risk of immune en-
hancement of infection and severe disease emphasizes the impor-
tance of developing a tetravalent dengue vaccines which produce
long-lasting immunity to all four dengue serotypes. A variety of
vaccine technologies are under investigation and besides of the
relatively slow progress in the development, a tetravalent live atten-
uated vaccine and a live chimeric virus vaccine are presently going
through Phase III trials.Multi-strain models are often modeled with
SIR-type models where the SIR classes are labeled for the hosts
that have seen the individual strains. We present a set of models
motivated by dengue fever epidemiology and compare different
dynamical behaviors originated when increasing complexity into
model framework, anticipating that temporary cross-immunity and
difference between primary and secondary infections appear to
be the key factors determining disease transmission, outcome of
infection and epidemics. These models are extensions of the basic
SIR epidemic model and are parametrized on the ofcial notica-
tion dengue data from Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public
Health in Thailand. The extended models show complex dynam-
ics and qualitatively a very good result when comparing empirical
data and simulation. We discuss the role of the seasonal force and
import of infected individuals in such systems, the biological rele-
vance and the implications of the new results in the analysis of the
available dengue data.
Panel 55 Customer Knowledge And Its Application To The Supply Chain
Management
Gabriel Perez Guzman*
A companys survival depends on good average earnings and
cash ows generated, so that all businesses are forced to nd cre-
ative ways to increase earnings. You can make use of strategies that
allow increase sales (improving the rotation) either increase the
unitary utility (by increasing the difference between the net sell-
ing price and the cost of sales), the same strategies that reduce all
kinds of cost are well received. In general, however, the strategies
that have an impact on the companys variable costs are those that
tend to give better results. These strategies usually involve modi-
cations to the companys operations. Some of the operations have
been grouped by Lambert (2004) in what it calls as "eight basic op-
erations of the supply chain" within which is perceived as motor
generator to customer, or rather to what is known of the customer.
At the start of a review in literacy, is that there are no clear de-
nitions of what are these operations and mostly remains in the air
a denition that seems central to operations: dening what a cus-
tomer is and what it means to know your customer. Accordingly,
this paper will proceed to establish the need for having these def-
initions and to build, therefore one in this respect. How, will be
established to clarify these concepts, you can have more certainty
about the direction of the operations of the supply chain. In order
to develop the above, will start from the concept of trade, how to
achieve prots. We will also discuss changes that are occurring in
the segment retail and as these changes are impacting on the sup-
ply chain, reason which leads us to review the operations of the
supply chain where we will identify the customer and what we
know of him as the center of all these operations. This will allow
us to establish a denition of what is a customer and what it means
to know him. We end by establishing a procedure to determine the
appropriate level of customer knowledge that is required to achieve
the objectives of the company.
Panel 56 Anomalous Networks: An Application To Brain Diseases
Johann Martinez*, Juan Manuel Pastor, Massimiliano Zanin, Fernando
Maestu, Ricardo Bajo and Javier M. Buldu
Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) is an intermediate state be-
tween healthy aging and dementia consisting in a progressive
episodic memory loss. The fact that 10% of elderly MCI patients
develop Alzheimers each year makes it an interesting candidate
to reveal some clues about prodromal Alzheimer. In the current
work we introduce a novel methodology in the framework of com-
plex networks theory to built up a new kind of functional networks
known as Anomalous (also Parenclitic) Networks.Specically, we
perform a statistical analysis in order to construct networks whose
links rely on the differences between a group of healthy individuals
and a group of patients suffering from MCI. This way we are able
to evaluate how the consistency of MCI patients during a memory
test is affected by the disease and what are those cortical regions
that suffer the most. The application of this methodology ranges
from a diversity of brain diseases to any other systems with two (or
more) well dened groups.
Panel 57 Beyond Municipal Limits
Shlomit Flint*
This paper examines the tension between collectivist and in-
dividuals societies struggle to gain predominance in the urban
space. The case study is east London, where minorities preserve
tradition based on family ties in compact areas. The differences in
life-style characterizations and the relations between the individu-
als and their group led to open conict over the residential space.
The research will recognize latent orders that determine residential
dynamics of minorities, spotlighting in high resolution the role of
group versus individual residential behaviors. Combining high-
resolution spatial analysis with urban planning and public policy
disciplines, this study propose parameters for identifying, formulat-
ing, and assessing the socio-spatial mechanisms which inuence the
residential dynamic of groups.
Panel 58 The Epileptic Thalamocortical Network Is A Macroscopic Oscil-
lator: Indication From Frequency-Locking Experiments In Rat
Brains
Jose Luis Perez Velazquez*, Ramon Guevara and Michael Rosenblum
The rhythmic activity observed in brain recordings, and espe-
cially in epilepsy and Parkinsons disease, has been hypothesized
to represent a macroscopic cellular oscillation, but this assumption
has not been tested experimentally. Here we support this viewpoint
in experiments in vivo with a rodent model of absence seizures, by
demonstrating frequency locking to external periodic stimuli, and
nding the characteristic Arnold tongues. This result has impor-
tant consequences for developing methods of, for instance, seizure
cancellation, or control of brain activity in general.
Panel 59 Background Brain Activity: Insights Into Brain Dynamics In
Autism
Jose Luis Perez Velazquez*, Luis Garcia Dominguez and Roberto Fernan-
dez Galan
We have studied resting, background brain activity derived from
magnetoencephalographic recordings in children with and without
autism, as it is becoming apparent that this resting-state activity
is a major factor determining more specic responses to stimuli
and hence background activity carries important information used
by the nervous systems for adaptive behaviours. In particular, we
present an efcient approach to discriminate between typical and
atypical brains from macroscopic brain dynamics based on stochas-
tic dynamics. Our observations revealed signicant alterations in
both functional brain connectivity and background noise in individ-
uals with autism relative to control children. Specially, background
noise in autistic brains is spatially correlated over wide areas, as
opposed to controls. In addition, estimation of the relative entropy
(information gain) indicates that more information is produced in
the brains of subjects with autism. These results may provide quan-
titative evidence for some typical characteristics in autism such as
the withdrawal into ones inner world.
Panel 60 Modeling Human Dynamics Of Face-To-Face Interaction Net-
works
Michele Starnini*, Andrea Baronchelli and Romualdo Pastor-Satorras
Face-to-face interaction networks describe social interactions
in human gatherings, and are the substrate for processes such as
epidemic spreading and gossip propagation. The bursty nature of
human behavior characterizes many aspects of empirical data,
such as the distribution of conversation lengths, of conversations
per person, or of inter-conversation times. Despite several recent
attempts, a general theoretical understanding of the global pic-
ture emerging from data is still lacking. Here we present a simple
model that reproduces quantitatively most of the relevant features
of empirical face-to-face interaction networks. The model describes
agents that perform a random walk in a two dimensional space
and are characterized by an attractiveness whose effect is to slow
down the motion of people around them. The proposed framework
sheds light on the dynamics of human interactions and can improve
the modeling of dynamical processes taking place on the ensuing
dynamical social networks.
Panel 61 Resilience Analysis Of London And Beijing Street Networks
Jiaqiu Wang*, Elsa Arcaute, Paolo Masucci and Michael Batty
Due to the frequent occurrence of natural disasters, demonstra-
tions, and road works in urban areas, in recent years resilience of
urban street networks plays an increasingly important role in our
modern life. For instance, when urban street networks are blocked
by heavy rain or planned engineering work, local street networks
may fail while the entire network retains transit capability. The is-
sue of network robustness can be addressed by analyzing how the
network structure changes as vertices or edges are removed. Pre-
vious work has considered how the structure of complex networks
change as vertices or edges are removed in terms of the order of
their importance, measured by calculating their degree and cen-
tralities. In this paper, we study the robustness of two real urban
street networks with different layouts. Taking the street networks
for London and Beijing as case studies, an experiment is performed
to simulate random failures and selective attacks in both street net-
works. We nd that the grid-like network is more robust than the
radical-like one. The nding could be used for layout optimisation
and reliability improvement of urban street networks, especially
in the case of road closures due to social disturbances or natural
disasters.
Panel 62 Multiplex Pagerank
Arda Halu, Raul J. Mondragon, Pietro Panzarasa and Ginestra Bianconi*
Many complex systems can be described as multiplex networks
in which the same nodes can interact with one another in different
layers, thus forming a set of interacting and co-evolving networks.
Examples of such multiplex systems are social networks where
people are involved in different types of relationships and interact
through various forms of communication media. The ranking of
nodes in multiplex networks is one of the most pressing and chal-
lenging tasks that research on complex networks is currently facing.
When pairs of nodes can be connected through multiple links and
in multiple layers, the ranking of nodes should necessarily reect
the importance of nodes in one layer as well as their importance in
other interdependent layers. In this work, we draw on the idea of
biased random walks to dene the Multiplex PageRank centrality
measure in which the effects of the interplay between networks on
the centrality of nodes are directly taken into account. In particular,
depending on the intensity of the interaction between layers, we
dene the Additive, Multiplicative, Combined, and Neutral ver-
sions of Multiplex PageRank, and show how each version reects
the extent to which the importance of a node in one layer affects
the importance the node can gain in another layer. We discuss these
measures and apply them to an online multiplex social network.
Findings indicate that taking the multiplex nature of the network
into account helps uncover the emergence of rankings of nodes that
differ from the rankings obtained from one single layer. Results
provide support in favor of the salience of multiplex centrality mea-
sures, like Multiplex PageRank, for assessing the prominence of
nodes embedded in multiple interacting networks, and for shed-
ding a new light on structural properties that would otherwise re-
main undetected if each of the interacting networks were analyzed
in isolation.
Panel 63 Recovery Of Synchronization In Oscillators Coupled Through A
Non-Resonant Mediator And Direct Interactions
Jordi Zamora-Munt*, Manuel A. Matias and Pere Colet
We demonstrate a revival of synchronization induced by the
interplay between repulsive couplings and natural frequency mis-
matches in a system of amplitude and phase oscillators with direct
interactions and mediated coupling through a common medium.
The revival occurs between the regions of small and large frequency
mismatches where synchronization is lost due to the repulsive in-
teractions and to a too high frequency mismatch, respectively. We
use the master stability function formalism recently extended to
groups of oscillators and generalize the results to any direct cou-
pling topology.
Panel 64 A Reputation Algorithm For Scientic Online Communities
Hao Liao, Giulio Cimini and Matu Medo*
Building on the body of work on network-based reputation algo-
rithms of which PageRank and HITS are the best known examples,
we propose a novel reputation algorithm designed especially for
scientic online communities. The algorithm is built on a bipartite
user-paper network where links are weighted according to inter-
actions between the interaction that occurred between a respective
user-paper pair. In addition, reputation of authors is introduced
and developed as an organic part of the algorithm. We use the
Econophysics Forum data for evaluation and show that the new al-
gorithm it is able to highlight papers that are eventually well cited.
Panel 65 Metric Choices For Semantic Analysis Of Color Naming
Mikael Vejdemo-Johansson*, Susanne Vejdemo and Carl-Henrik Ek
Computational methods have started playing a signicant role in
semantic analysis. One particularly accessible area for developing
good computational methods for linguistic semantics is in color
naming, where perceptual dissimilarity measures provide a geo-
metric setting for the analyses.This setting has been studied rst by
Berlin & Kay[1], and then later on by a large data collection effort:
the World Color Survey (WCS). From the WCS, a dataset on color
naming by 2616 speakers of 110 different languages is made avail-
able for further research. In the analysis of color naming from WCS,
however, the choice of analysis method is an important factor of
the analysis.We demonstrate concrete problems with the choice of
metrics made in recent analyses of WCS data, and offer approaches
for dealing with the problems we can identify. Picking a metric
for the space of color naming distributions that ignores perceptual
distances between colors assumes a decorrelated system, where
strong spatial correlations in fact exist. We can demonstrate that the
corresponding issues are signicantly improved when using Earth
Movers Distance, or Quadratic

G2 Distance, and we can approxi-
mate these solutions with a kernel-based analysis method.[1] Berlin,
B., & Kay, P. (1969). Basic colour terms. University of California
Press.
Panel 66 Unifying Explanatory Principles Of Science
Robert Hristovski and Natalia Balague*
Would cosmologists, cell biologists and sociologists understand
each other when explaining the basic principles within their respec-
tive elds? In this presentation we examine the changes occurring
within the linguistic (i.e. conceptual) landscape prole of scientic
elds in relation to the absence and presence of general explanatory
principles derived from nonlinear dynamic systems theory and sta-
tistical physics. We also present a model that captures the domain
growth from a context-dependent language of separate disciplines
towards unied general concepts forming an embedded explana-
tory space which allows the creation of synthetic knowledge.
Panel 67 The Fallacy Of The Method Of Moments To Calculate The
Current Of Rocking Ratchets
Niurka R. Quintero*, Jose Cuesta and Renato Alvarez-Nodarse
For decades, all attempts to reproduce the sinusoidal shape of
the ratchet current induced by a bi-harmonic force have failed to
predict the existence of a system-dependent phase lag. This lack of
success is due to a awed assumption widely employed in the
literature under the name of method of moments all these theories
rely upon, namely that, for weak forces, the ratchet current is pro-
portional to the cubic moment of the force. The aim of this work is
to show that this assumption is generally incorrect. Although the
application of this method captures the right dependence on the
amplitudes in the case of harmonic mixing, this partial success is
purely accidental. This can be seen, for instance, in the fact that,
when applied to a zero-average square-wave force, it predicts a zero
ratchet current. That this is a wrong prediction has been shown
in JPA 44, 425205 (2011), where the ratchet current of relativistic
solitons one of the very few cases for which the current can be
analytically obtained for arbitrary forces has been explicitly ob-
tained. The solution also shows that the method of moments is an
incorrect assumption not even valid as an approximation.
Panel 68 Emergent Statistical-Mechanical Structure In The Dynamics
Along The Period-Doubling Route To Chaos
Alvaro Diaz* and Alberto Robledo
We consider both the dynamics within and towards the super-
cycle attractors along the period-doubling route to chaos to ana-
lyze the development of a statistical-mechanical structure. In this
structure the partition function consists of the sum of the attractor
position distances known as supercycle diameters and the associ-
ated thermodynamic potential measures the rate of approach of
trajectories to the attractor. The congurational weights for nite
and innite periods can be expressed as power laws or deformed
exponentials. The statistical-mechanical structure is developed at
the onset of chaos. For nite period the structure is undeveloped
in the sense that there is no true congurational degeneracy, but in
the limit of innite period this is realized together with the analog
property of a Legendre transform linking entropies of two ensem-
bles. We also study the partition functions for all superstable period
and the action of the Central Limit Theorem via a binomial approx-
imation. Beyond the transition to chaos the statistical-mechanical
structure acquires the ordinary exponential weights form. We re-
fer to the relationship of our description with the thermodynamic
formalism for multifractals.
Panel 69 Social Sampling Theory: A Model Of Social Norms, Segregation,
And Polarisation
Gordon Brown*, Stephan Lewandowsky and Zhihong Huang
An agent-based model of social norm effects and polarisation is
described. The model is cast with a utility-maximising framework.
It is assumed that, when choosing an action, agents observe the
behaviour of social network neighbours and hence infer the social
distribution of particular attitudes. Agents are assumed to dislike
behaviours that are extreme within their neighbourhood (social ex-
tremeness aversion), and hence have a tendency to conform. How-
ever agents are assumed also to prefer choices that are consistent
with their own true beliefs (authenticity preference). Behavioural
choice reects a compromise between these opposing principles.
The model explains a number of social phenomena including ho-
mophily and polarisation, certainty and condence effects on social
conformity, and backre effects.
Panel 70 Research Endogamy As An Indicator Of Conference Quality
Sergio Lopez Montolio, David Dominguez-Sal* and Josep Lluis Larriba-
Pey
Endogamy in scientic publications measures the diversity of
the collaborations among researchers. We analyze the endogamy
of more than a thousand computer science conferences and jour-
nals. We observe a strong correlation between the quality of those
conferences and the endogamy of their authors: conferences where
researchers collaborate with new peers have signicantly more
quality than conferences where researchers work in groups that are
stable along time. This suggests that studying the social behavior of
researchers can improve research efciency and conference quality
evaluation.
Panel 71 Shaping Communities Out Of Triangles
Arnau Prat, David Dominguez-Sal*, Josep M. Brunat and Josep L.
Larriba-Pey
Communities are distinguishable groups of tightly connected
entities. Although the existing quality metrics work well in gen-
eral, they are not reliable because they do not consider the internal
topology of the community. We propose the Weighted Community
Clustering (WCC), which is a new community metric that takes
the triangle as the basic motif of a strong relation in a graph. We
formally prove, that the maximization of WCC guarantees com-
munities with cohesion and structure. Experimentally, we show
that WCC correctly captures the concept of community in social
networks using real datasets.
Panel 72 Galib: A Library For Graph Analysis In Python / Numpy
Gorka Zamora-Lpez*
G.A.lib is a library for the analysis of graphs and complex net-
works written in Python that is fully based in NumPy. Networks
are represented by their adjacency matrices as rank-2 ndarrays. The
library makes extensive use of NumPy to boost performance over
pure Python code and is released under and open-source license.
The code is transparent and easy to modify and extend. The library
includes datasets, examples and a set of Utility Scripts useful for
network researchers to easily generate ensembles of random(ized)
networks that can be post-process in their usual programming lan-
guage or environment.
Panel 73 Analysis Of An Opinion Dynamics Model: Application To Elec-
tions
Marie Moriam*
Understanding the behaviour of societies or smaller groups of
people, has been and still is a big challenge for researchers in the
history. Elections are one case where data are abundant and freely
available; we thus decided to focus our research on some recent
results aimed at unravelling some feature of proportional elections
across countries and time.
Before the election, people do discuss and share information, it is
thus natural to start to study the agreement phenomenon between
individuals in a social group. Moreover the higher is the mutual
agreement in a group, the stronger will be its impact on the society.
The cognitive process of information acquisition and transmis-
sion is by far too much difcult to be modelled, that is why we
adopt a simplied point of view, where agents have a nite number
of discussions subjects and upon each subject there can be only
two possible opinions: agree or disagree. Finally two agents can
interact and exchange information only if they are initially close
enough in the "opinions space" (bounded condence). Even if it
is simple, the model is able to exhibit a rich set of dynamical be-
haviours and allows us to provide (partial) answers to the election
outcome question.
Our goal will be to analyse the interaction between the agents,
the time evolution of the opinion simulation and moreover the so-
cial network of the agents. Also, we try to understand the dynamic
of the system and to improve the models efciency.
Panel 74 Hypoxia In Vascular Networks: A Complex System Approach To
Unraveling The Diabetes Paradox
Yerali Gandica*, Tobias Schwarz, Orlando Oliveira and Rui Travasso
Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is associated with extended blood ves-
sel damage as a consequence from local inammatory processes. In
spite of this, the hallmark of DR is often a neo-vascularized retina,
which is the result of the high levels of hypoxia in the tissue in-
duced by the damaged vessel network. In this work we model the
extent of hypoxia in the diabetic retina as a function of the area af-
fected by vessel disruption. We set the conditions for widespread
hypoxia (i.e., much larger than the disrupted area) that is corre-
lated with high levels of neo-vascularization. The transition to this
regime of prevalent neo-vascularization occurs when the radii of
the vessel disrupting areas is lower than the characteristic irrigation
length in the tissue. We nd that the destabilization of larger ves-
sels as well as a smaller radii of individual sites of vessel damage
are correlated with high levels of hypoxia. Our results highlight the
importance of the hypoxia spacial distribution as an agent driving
the progression of DR.
Panel 75 Reservoir Computing Functionality Of Cellular Regulatory Net-
works
Maral Gabalda* and Jordi Garcia-Ojalvo
Single cells have the potential and the necessity to process the
information they receive from their environment. The interaction of
the elements of their regulatory networks allows them to integrate
different inputs and, even more, process temporal information. The
global logic that these networks follow to perform such calcula-
tions is not well known yet. We hypothesise that the regulatory
networks can be considered to follow a Reservoir Computing (RC)
organization, a concept that has recently emerged in the elds of
neuroscience and machine learning. Transcription factor networks
from different databases were found to have a topology compatible
with RC that performed well in a memory-demanding prediction
task used in machine learning.
Friday, September 20th
Chair: M. Porter
9:00 9:50
Auditorium
Keynote talk
Using bibliometrics to investigate the process driving the com-
munication of scientic research
Luis A. N Amaral (Northwestern University)
In spite of its importance, how or even whether to quantify sci-
entic impact remains a source of controversy within the scientic
community. For example, the San Francisco Declaration on Research
Assessment has called for "the need to eliminate the use of journal-
based metrics, such as Journal Impact Factors, in funding, appoint-
ment, and promotion considerations." It is ironic that, in spite of the
fact that measurement is a core component of science itself, many
scientists are recommending a move away from measurement and
quantication.
I believe that, when faced with an imperfect but needed tool, the
right course of action is to seek to improve it, rather than to discard
it. In my view, the scientic community, must strongly support
the development of better bibliometric evaluation tools instead of
opposing their use.
9:50 10:30
Auditorium
Invited talk
Contagion processes on multilevel socio-technical systems
Yamir Moreno (University of Zaragoza)
The study of complex networks sheds light on the relation be-
tween the structure and function of complex systems. In this talk,
we thoroughly discuss two paradigmatic examples of diffusion dy-
namics that take place on multilevel systems: the spreading of dis-
eases and the so-called complex social contagion. For the rst pro-
cess, we discuss several relevant cases ranging from the spreading
of interacting diseases, to the competitive dynamics of multi-strain
diseases on top of metapopulation systems. Secondly, we discuss
a different class of theoretical and numerical approaches suited to
describe the emergence of collective phenomena in large-scale social
systems. In particular, we show how this diffusion dynamics intro-
duces different analytical and numerical challenges whose solution
leads to a better understanding of the mechanisms at the root of the
phenomena being analyzed.
friday, september 20th 165
Chair: K. Goh
11:00 11:20
Room A1
Contributed talk
Who Replaces Whom? Local Versus Non-Local Replacement In
Social And Evolutionary Dynamics
Sven Banisch* and Tanya Araujo
In this paper, we inspect wellknown population genetics and
social dynamics models. In these models, interacting individuals,
while participating in a self-organizing process, give rise to the
emergence of complex behaviors and patterns. While one main
focus in population genetics is on the adaptive behavior of a pop-
ulation, social dynamics is more often concerned with the splitting
of a connected array of individuals into a state of global polariza-
tion, that is, the emergence of speciation. Applying computational
and mathematical tools we show that the way the mechanisms of
selection, interaction and replacement are constrained and com-
bined in the modeling have an important bearing on both adapta-
tion and the emergence of speciation. Differently (un)constraining
the mechanism of individual replacement provides the conditions
required for either speciation or adaptation, since these features
appear as two opposing phenomena, not achieved by one and the
same model. Even though natural selection, operating as an exter-
nal, environmental mechanism, is neither necessary nor sufcient
for the creation of speciation, our modeling exercises highlight the
important role played by natural selection in the interplay of the
evolutionary and the selforganization modeling methodologies.
11:20 11:40
Room A1
Contributed talk
The Physics Of Information Transmission In Complex Networks
Murilo Baptista*, Rero Rubinger, Emilson Viana Jr, Jose Sartorelli, Ulrich
Parlitz and Celso Grebogi
The amount of information exchanged per unit of time between
two nodes in a dynamical network or between two data sets is a
powerful concept for analysing complex systems. This quantity,
known as the mutual information rate (MIR), is calculated from the
mutual information, which is rigorously dened only for random
systems. Moreover, the denition of mutual information is based on
probabilities of signicant events. The MIR is a fundamental quan-
tity in science. Its maximal value gives the information capacity
between any two sources of information (no need for stationarity,
statistical stability, memoryless). Therefore, alternative approaches
for its calculation or for the calculation of bounds of it are of vital
relevance. In this talk, I will show a simple alternative way to cal-
culate the MIR in dynamical (deterministic) networks or between
two time series (not fully deterministic), and to calculate its upper
and lower bounds without having to calculate probabilities, but
rather in terms of well known and well dened quantities (e.g. Lya-
punov exponents, expansion rates, and dimensions) in dynamical
systems. As possible applications of these bounds, I will briey
present a series of applications where this theoretical approach can
be used to better understand complex systems, such as the brain,
simulated neural networks, coupled oscillators and maps, the DNA,
and stochastic systems. I will give special emphasis to shed light
into the relationship among information, synchronisation, the net-
work topology, time recurrences, and the correlation decay, in these
complex systems.
11:40 12:00
Room A1
Contributed talk
Growing Ising-Like Chain As A Model Of Online Emotional
Interactions
Julian Sienkiewicz*, Krzysztof Suchecki and Janusz Holyst
We introduce a 1D model basing on an asymmetrical Ising-like
dynamics. The model is equipped with the growth feature and the
spin of every succeeding node is inuenced by the previous one but
not vice-versa. Models simplicity enables exact solution it in the
presence of external eld h. We conceive it as suitable for modeling
for emotional online discussions, where spin in every node con-
veys emotional valence of a subsequent post. We distingiush three
phases - the rst, where average spins evolution is determined by
its rst spin only, the second, in which the average spin is coping
the external inuence, a nally, the third one, where the outcome is
subject to uctuations.
12:00 12:20
Room A1
Contributed talk
Causality In Systems With Cooperative Behaviour
Fatimah Abdul Razak and Henrik Jeldtoft Jensen
Currently there is intense interest in Transfer Entropy as a mea-
sure to detect causal relationships and specic causal lags. Its pro-
pounded ability to capture nonlinearities is especially of interest
in complex systems where nonlinear cooperative behaviour is a
dening feature. A systematic investigation of the relative strength
of Transfer Entropy in the midst of cooperative behaviour is con-
ducted by utilizing the simplest case of lag specic Transfer En-
tropy. In the Ising model, Transfer Entropy peaks near the critical
temperature and consequently we conclude that cooperative effects
inuence this causality measure. Results on an amended Ising
model show that Transfer Entropy is able to capture an underly-
ing level of causality even if this is shrouded in the long range
correlated uctuations near the critical temperature.
12:20 12:40
Room A1
Contributed talk
Phase Transitions In A Data-Driven Fish School Model
Daniel Schardosim Calovi*, Ugo Lopez, Sandrine Ngo, Hugues Chate and
Guy Theraulaz
In this work we have used a data-driven model of the sh Kuhlia
mugil to study the transitions between different patterns of collec-
tive motion (swarming, schooling and milling). We used computer
simulations to measure group-level patterns as a function of the
sh velocity and the strength of social interactions between sh
revealing the existence of four collective states. We established a
functional form of the schooling/milling transition for xed size
simulations. We also evaluated the impact of different school sizes,
which exposed the inferior and superior limits for the four collec-
tive states in our model.
12:40 13:00
Room A1
Contributed talk
Self-Organized Game Dynamics In Complex Networks
Flavio Pinheiro*, Vitor V. Vasconcelos, Francisco C. Santos and Jorge M.
Pacheco
Social networks affect in such a fundamental way the dynamics
of the population they support that the global, population-wide
behavior that one observes often bears no relation to the individ-
ual processes it stems from. Up to now, linking the global net-
worked dynamics to such individual mechanisms has remained
elusive. Here we study the evolution of cooperation in networked
populations and let individuals interact via a 2-person Prisoners
Dilemma a characteristic defection dominant social dilemma of
cooperation. We show how homogeneous networks transform a
Prisoners Dilemma into a population-wide evolutionary dynamics
that promotes the coexistence between cooperators and defectors,
while heterogeneous networks promote their coordination. To this
end, we dene a dynamic variable that allows us to track the self-
organization of cooperators when co-evolving with defectors in
networked populations. Using the same variable, we show how the
global dynamics and effective dilemma co-evolves with the
motifs of cooperators in the population, the overall emergence of
cooperation depending sensitively on this co-evolution.
Language, Linguistics And Cognition 1
Chair: R. Ferrer-i-Cancho
11:00 11:20
Room A2
Contributed talk
Stability Of Strength And Weight Distributions For Time-Evolving
Word Co-Occurrence Networks
Francesc Font-Clos and Alvaro Corral
We construct directed weighted networks of word co-occurrence
using googles n-grams dataset. By means of simple but novel scal-
ing laws, we are able to show that over the past two hundred years
the distributions of strength and weight have been extremely stable.
In addition, we derive equations for the growth of the number of
links and nodes as a function of the total strength. Our ndings
suggest that, despite the introduction of new words and death of
old ones, changes in usage and inuence of other languages, some
deep structure of the English language remains essentially unalter-
able.
11:20 11:40
Room A2
Contributed talk
Simple Models For Vocabulary Growth And Replacement
Martin Gerlach and Eduardo G. Altmann*
We model the usage of words in written language by simple
stochastic processes. Our goal is to (i) understand the appearance
of double-scaling behavior in the growth curve of the vocabulary as
a function of database size and (ii) quantify the replacement of the
most-frequent words in the vocabulary of a language on historical
time scales. The starting point of our work is a careful statistical
analysis of two large databases: the Google n-gram database, a
collection of millions of books in different languages published
over the past centuries, and the complete version of the English
Wikipedia. We obtain generative models which not only account
for empirical observations but also yield a mechanistic understand-
ing of the origin of the double-scaling behavior, and predict the
size of the vocabulary of arbitrarily large databases. An exponen-
tial replacement of the most- frequent words in the vocabulary is
observed, with a rate which is increasing over time. Our results
have implications to our fundamental understanding of language
change and evolution, and to different data-mining applications.
The main results presented in this talk are available in the paper
Stochastic model for the vocabulary growth in natural languages,
arXiv:1212.1362, to appear in Phys. Rev. X (2013).
11:40 12:00
Room A2
Contributed talk
Information Richness And Referentiality
Bernat Corominas-Murtra*, Jordi Fortuny Andreu and Ricard Sole
In its current form, Information theory (IT) is blind to any ref-
erential conservation or consistency of the semantic content within
the communicative exchange. In this talk we will show how refer-
entiality (as a primary form of meaning) can be naturally coupled
to IT. We will provide the complete description of the minimal
system necessary to incorporate the referential value and its con-
servation. We will then expose some of its most salient properties
(like the dissipation of information due to referentiality loss) and
we will discuss the important consequences that our ndings have
for the understanding of the emergence of communication in non-
supervised scenarios.
12:00 12:20
Room A2
Contributed talk
Predicting The Evolution Of Heterogeneous Language Contact
Situations: The Case Of Galician-Spanish Bilingualism
Luis F. Seoane*, Maria C. Parata, Hkan Casares, Henrique Monteagudo
and Jorge Mira
We model a situation of language contact over a wide geograph-
ical area. TWe are aided by a model of non-linear equations where
languages compete with each other seeking speakers and bilingual-
ism is introduced. The model allow us to measure a proxy of the
status of the tongues, as well as language distance, and to project it
in an actual geographical map. Predictions of the linguistic fate in
the middle term are also obtained.
12:20 12:40
Room A2
Contributed talk
Cases, Prepositions, And In-Betweens: Sketching A Model Of
Grammatical Evolution
Benjamin Fagard and Elisa Omodei*
Most languages we know have either case marking, adpositions,
or both. We know that case marking generally results from the
grammaticalization of adpositions, themselves often resulting from
the grammaticalization of adverbs. We also know that languages
with case marking can lose their case system, which is then gener-
ally replaced by adpositions. Despite much work on the subject, we
still cannot gure out completely how these shifts took place. What
is it that makes a language go from case-marking to adpositions,
or vice versa? We decided to tackle this difcult problem with a
completely different approach, i.e. a model of this type of evolution.
We therefore built a model, aiming to account for the (in)stability
of language systems, i.e. the fact that language systems are always
subject to variation, but this variation does not systematically lead
to change. The features of the model we present are inspired from
our experience in the diachronic study of real-life cases and ad-
positions. Each step of the model thus has a linguistic justication,
and we will show the advantages and limits of such an approach.
12:40 13:00
Room A2
Contributed talk
Coordination Of Changes During Professional Training For
Working With Multichallenged Families: An Exploratory, Discovery-
Oriented Study
Ana Teixeira de Melo* and Madalena Alarco
Professionals working with multichallenged poor families with
at-risk and maltreated children have to deal with some of the most
difcult to help clients and to provide support to families with
challenging multiple needs. Researchers have called attention to
the importance providing special support to these professionals
and the need of special training programs to prepare them to deal
with complex family dynamics and family needs as well as their
own internal perturbations and change experiences while working
with these families. In this exploratory, discovery-oriented study
we aimed at identifying and analysing the professionals change
patterns and processes during a special training program aimed
at assessment and intervention with multichallenged families. We
report preliminary results using data retrieved from web-based
diaries lled by the participants during the rst 27 weeks of train-
ing, resorting to both statistics and qualitative analysis, namely
grounded theory methods, we explored preliminary results re-
garding the change experiences and the coordination of emotional,
behavioural and cognitive changes. Although the emotional and
behavioural changes cognitive-behavioral changes appear to be
more coordinated (experienced at the same level of change) than
emotional-cognitive changes the individual results indicate more
differentiated pathways of change and coordination of changes.
Among the different states of coordination of change available dur-
ing training, main attractors are identied as states of absolute co-
ordination of moderate levels of change. The results also highlight
some categories and dimensions to be further explored with the
continuation of this study in order to understand the profession-
als change processes and call attention to the need to individually
tailored support and attention during the training.
Chair: A. Turiel
11:00 11:20
Room A3
Contributed talk
Applying The Viability Theory For Studying Forest Pratices In
The Global Change Context
Bruno Bonte*, Thomas Cordonnier and Jean-Denis Mathias
Within the context of forest multifunctionality there is a great
challenge for forest management policies and legislation to evolve
from purely economic management to a management that consid-
ers also ecological and recreational values and social estate preser-
vation associated with a forest. Because of this multifunctional
aspect of the forest, it is important to integrate the socio-economic
behaviour in forest management strategies as a part of the forest
system. Focusing on two challenges facing society that forest man-
agement must address today, we use the viability theory, in order
to establish the room for manoeuvre of a forest owner whose forest
would provide both, timber production and biodiversity preser-
vation services. These services have to be maintained despite low
growth due to climate change.
11:20 11:40
Room A3
Contributed talk
Cities As Modules In The Brain Through Percolation Theory
Elsa Arcaute*, Erez Hatna, Jiaqiu Wang, Camilo Vargas-Ruiz, Paolo
Masucci, Peter Ferguson and Michael Batty
City boundaries play a crucial role in the measurement of urban
observables, especially if these are the outcome of non-linear effects.
Nevertheless, delimiting a city is a point of great debate, and re-
mains an open problem. In this paper we apply percolation theory
to the road network in Britain following the ideas by Gallos et al,
and show how cities emerge in the same way as modules emerge
in the brain through multiple percolation transitions. A hierarchical
process takes place, and through recursive percolations on each of
the emerging clusters, cities are devised. We show that in the same
way as a highly modular an integrated brain functions, cities are
fractal structures that form a small-world network of connections
between them.
11:40 12:00
Room A3
Contributed talk
Gender And The Topology Of Urban Mobility Of Two Cities
Laura Lotero*, Rafael Hurtado and Patricia Jaramillo
An important question about any social system regards the exis-
tence of subgroups or partitions and how to identify and measure
them; methodologies dealing with social systems have to prove to
be suitable to distinguish between different social subgroups as
those characterized by gender. In this work we study the ability
of the complex network formalism to capture differences in urban
mobility related to gender. Gender in urban mobility is a hard test
to the formalism as men and women have similar but also different
travelling patterns. We nd measurable differences in the topology
of mobility networks for men and women in two cities, Bogota and
Medellin in Colombia, indicating gender specicities for each city
as well as differences between the cities.
12:00 12:20
Room A3
Contributed talk
Interdecadal Changes In Atmospheric Connectivity Using Com-
plex Networks
Fernando Arizmendi*, Marcelo Barreiro and Arturo Marti
Improving our understanding of the Earths complex climate
phenomena, such as El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), has a
huge economic and social impact for present and future genera-
tions, and can underpin advances in areas as diverse as energy,
environment, agricultural and marine sciences.To contribute in
this direction we have analized the teleconnection patterns from
a complex network perspective, using both linear and nonlinear
time series symbolic analysis techniques. Specically, we constuct
global climate networks by studying the monthly average eddy
geopotential height anomalies at 200 mb since 1900 (NCEP/NCAR
reanalysis data and NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis) and calculate
the fraction of the Earth that each geographical point is connected
to (Area Weigthed Connectivity function). Mutual information
with the ordinal patterns methodology, and linear correlation are
used to measure the interconnection degree between nodes. The
threshold, to avoid randomness, is varied to establish the strength
of the links.The map of area weigthed connectivity shows larger
connectivity in the tropics with every methodology which agrees
with our current understanding of tropical dynamics. Likewise
with lower thresholds there are some extratropical regions that
stand out for their number of connections, such as the South and
North Pacic, which reect the teleconnection patterns in both
hemispheres through the propagation of Rossby waves.Moreover
the results also show some differences between linear and nonlinear
methodologies, specically in the central tropical Pacic, where the
nonlinear methods using ordinal patterns shows signicantly fewer
connections than with the others methods. Further analysis of the
dynamics of the connectivities in strategic locations shows clear
interdecadal changes in the AWC function, which suggests changes
in the dynamics of the atmospheric teleconnection processes in
different decades.
12:20 12:40
Room A3
Contributed talk
Simulation Study Of Evacuation From Buildings
Robert Kosi nski and Andrzej Grabowski*
In the paper the processes of evacuating buildings of different
types are modeled using Langevin equations with the social force
term describing the mental component in pedestrian motion. The
level of panic during an evacuation is connected with the desired
velocity - a parameter in the social force term. Introducing an addi-
tional vertical force exerted on pedestrians on the staircases makes
it possible to extend the application of the model to multistorey
buildings. Numerical simulations make it possible to observe tra-
jectories of pedestrians and to calculate the time it takes to evacuate
different buildings. Factors inuencing the effectiveness of evacua-
tion are discussed.
12:40 13:00
Room A3
Contributed talk
Statistical Observational Constraints For Convective Parametriza-
tions And Prediction Of Rainfall Extremes At Fast And Slow
Time Scales
Anna Deluca*, Alvaro Corral and Nicholas R. Moloney
A better understanding of convection is crucial for reducing the
intrinsic errors present in climate models. Many atmospheric pro-
cesses related to precipitation have large scale correlations in time
and space, which are the result of the coupling between several
non-linear mechanisms with different temporal and spatial char-
acteristic scales. Despite the diversity of individual rain events,
a recent array of statistical measures present surprising statisti-
cal regularities giving support to the hypothesis that atmospheric
convection and precipitation may be a real-world example of Self-
Organised Criticality (SOC). The possible consequences of this
framework for the prediction of atmospheric phenomena still re-
main unclear. Using 1 minute resolution local rain intensities across
different climates, stochastic convective models and SOC models,
we investigate how predictable the time series of rain activity and
rain event sizes are. This is quantied with a receiver operating
characteristic analysis. Our chosen decision variable is sensitive to
clustering or repulsion between events in the time series. We nd
that on the events scale (large scale), rain data renormalise to a triv-
ial point process as the threshold raises, while for small thresholds
events cluster. This is in contrast to the anti-clustering of high-
threshold events in simple SOC models as a result of nite-size
effects and the building up of correlations. However, rain data has
an unavoidable threshold on intensity due to the device resolution
that blurs the interpretation of the results on the event scale. At the
level of intensities (short scale), we nd that prediction is insensitive
to all but very high thresholds.
Chair: J. Porter
11:00 11:20
Room A4
Contributed talk
Comparing Random Trading Strategies Vs Technical Ones
Alessio E. Biondo, Alessandro Pluchino, Andrea Rapisarda* and Dirk
Helbing
In this paper we explore the specic role of randomness in nan-
cial markets, inspired by the benecial role of noise in many physi-
cal systems and in previous applications to complex socio-economic
systems. In particular, we study the performance of some of the
most used trading strategies in predicting the dynamics of nancial
markets for different international stock exchange indexes, with
the goal of comparing them with the performance of a completely
random strategy. In this respect, historical data for FTSE-UK, FTSE-
MIB, DAX, and S&P500 indexes are taken into account for a period
of about 15-20 years (since their creation until today).
11:20 11:40
Room A4
Contributed talk
Gravity Model Of Trade As A Representative Of The Ensemble
Of Maximally Random Networks
Mariusz Karpiarz, Agata Fronczak and Piotr Fronczak
Inspired by Newtons gravity equation, the gravity model of
trade states that the volume of trade between two countries is pro-
portional to the product of the sizes of the two countries and the
inverse of the distance between them. Here we show that the inter-
national trade network is a typical representative of the ensemble
of maximally random networks. We formulate structural Hamilto-
nian and discuss how its parameters depend on different economic
indicators. Our approach provides, through uctuation-response
theorems, valuable insights into general rules governing time evolu-
tion of the global trade.
11:40 12:00
Room A4
Contributed talk
Analyzing An Electoral Campaign In The Context Of Social Me-
dia
Javier Borondo, Alfredo Morales, Juan Carlos Losada and Rosa M. Benito
Nowadays social media are user friendly tools through which
to exchange and propagate information. Due to the rapidly grow-
ing number of users, these tools have become ideal platforms for
politicians to interact with their potential voters. This fact has made
electoral campaigns taking place online become an increasingly
important topic in scientic research. In the present work we have
analyzed the Spanish Presidential elections [1] taking place on the
20th of November in the context of online social networks. For this
matter we have collected all the messages posted in Twitter identi-
ed with 20N during the two weeks preceding the Election Day.
Previous research analyzing Presidential Elections have shown
that the activity taking place in Twitter is correlated with the elec-
tion results. In this work we will present results of the analysis
of the cumulative temporal series mentioning the most impor-
tant political parties in Spain, nding that in correspondence with
previous research the most voted parties were also the most men-
tioned in Twitter. We have done a further study of the mentioned
temporal series in order to understand how important events occur-
ring ofine are reected in Twitter and how they affect candidates
popularity by introducing a new parameter to measure online pop-
ularity.
Since we have seen that the activity in Twitter is correlated with
the election results we have further analyzed this activity. Firstly
we have studied the cumulative probability distribution for the
user activity, nding the distribution to be highly heterogeneous,
with a very small percentage of users posting half of the tweets.
Moreover we have built the @mention and retweet networks. Due
to the usefulness of these interaction mechanisms to exchange and
propagate information, we have analyzed the in and out strength
distributions for these networks, nding out that the collective at-
tention has been directed to a minority of accounts. These minority
of elitist accounts belong predominantly to politicians or important
mass media, where politicians have been the main characters of the
conversation (as they were the most mentioned), and mass media
the preferred sources of information (the most retweeted). To fully
characterize the interactions taking place between users we have
calculated the assortativity by degree coefcient for both networks.
Finally we have characterized the Spanish politicians behavior
on Twitter by ltering the previous mentioned networks, remaining
only the nodes that belong to a Spanish politician or political party
and the interactions taking placeamong them. Analyzing this net-
work we found a deep lack of debate between the different parties,
as its members merely campaigned for their leader.
1. Borondo J., Morales, A.J., Losada J.C., Benito R.M. Chaos 22,
023138 (2012); doi: 10.1063/1.4729139
12:00 12:20
Room A4
Contributed talk
Wealth And Social Behavior: Lessons From An Online World
Benedikt Fuchs and Stefan Thurner
Most attempts to answer the century-old question why wealth is
distributed so inhomogeneously in human society failed due to lack
of comprehensive data.
Here we contribute to the understanding of wealth inequality by
using complete information on a society of online gamers.
The completeness of the data enables us to relate the wealth of
an actor to her actual behavior, and to her position in the multiplex
network of player interactions.
We analyze the preconditions of wealth in terms of network
measures such as in- and outdegree, next-neighbor degree, and
clustering coefcient in the social multiplex network.
12:20 12:40
Room A4
Contributed talk
Towards A Proper Assignment Of Systemic Risk: The Combined
Roles Of Network Topology And Shock Characteristics
Lasse Loepfe*, Antonio Cabrales and Angel Sanchez
In a thorough study going from analytical models to empirical
data, we systematically explore the effects of network topology
on the overall resistance to external shocks. We show two sharp
transitions from save to risky regimes: 1) diversication becomes
prejudicial with just a small fraction ( 2%) of the shocks sampled
from a fat tailed shock distributions and 2) when large shocks are
present, a critical density exists where a effective giant cluster forms
and most rms become vulnerable. This threshold heavily depends
on modularity. The stability of the core of the transnational corpo-
ration network could be clearly increased by removing some of the
links with highest centrality betweeness. We therefore recommend
targeting surveillance also at the connections between rms.
12:40 13:00
Room A4
Contributed talk
Schelling-Type Urban Segregation Models With Switching And
Preferential Dynamics
Laetitia Gauvin, Aurelien Hazan and Julien Randon-Furling*
Providing new cross-sections of the phase diagram of a Schelling-
class system with switching agents (able to change from a population-
type to the other), we establish that the presence of such agents in a
segregative Schelling-type dynamics results in a lower segregation
coefcient. We investigate causes of this decrease: whether it corre-
sponds to noisy clusters (largely homogeneous clusters containing
isolated switching agents), fuzzy interface (homogeneous clusters
with macroscopic interfaces contributing to a higher overall level of
mixing) or system-wide mixing. We also nd that switching agents
unlock frozen dynamics.
Chair: E. Moro
11:00 11:20
Room S9
Contributed talk
Emergence Of Criticality In Living Systems Through Adaptation
And Evolution: Practice Makes Critical
Jorge Hidalgo, Jacopo Grilli, Samir Suweis, Miguel Muoz, Jayanth Ba-
navar and Amos Maritan
Living systems strive to survive and thrive in a constantly chang-
ing environment. A key ingredient for their success is their ability
to capture relevant information from the richly varying external
world, synthesizing its most prominent features into manageable
maps. Our scope here is to show - within the perspective of com-
plex adaptive systems that by imposing such maps to be good,
though approximate, proxies of reality leads to systems adapting
spontaneously to work in the vicinity of critical points. Our ap-
proach provides a parsimonious and general explanation for the
emergence of critical-like behavior in biological systems as empiri-
cally observed across disciplines and levels.
11:20 11:40
Room S9
Contributed talk
Evolutionary Optimisation Of Dynamical Networks
Steffen Karalus* and Joachim Krug
In the evolution of many real-world networks mutations alter
the network topology whereas selection acts on a "tness" provided
by dynamical processes taking place on the network. The speed of
the evolutionary dynamics is in many empirical situations much
slower than the process dynamics such that the time scales can be
considered as well separated. Exploiting these ideas it has been
shown that network structures can be successfully evolved such
that non-trivial dynamical behaviour, specically anomalous diffu-
sion, emerges [1]. Further progress in understanding the properties
of the evolved networks is achieved, rstly, by comparison with
random networks sharing structural properties and, secondly, by
detecting symmetric motifs and relating them to spectral features
of the time evolution operator.[1] S. Karalus and M. Porto, EPL 99,
38002 (2012)
11:40 12:00
Room S9
Contributed talk
Statistical Properties On Bond Percolation Process In A Real
Network
Hirokazu Kawamoto*, Koutarou Tamura, Misako Takayasu and Hideki
Takayasu
We analyze the data of the business relation network consisted
of about one million nodes, which is known to be a typical scale-
free network in the real world. For this complex network, we study
structural robustness against random removal of links. We focus
on the percolation phase transition point that a mutually connected
dominant cluster is broken into small pieces.
12:00 12:20
Room S9
Contributed talk
Properties Of Nonlinear Money Transport Model And Compari-
son With The Biased Random Walk Model
Koutarou Tamura*, Hideki Takayasu and Misako Takayasu
We analyzed the data consisting of 3.8 million trade relations and
0.6 million rms involved. Focusing on the money ow, we pro-
posed an empirical nonlinear money transport model. According
to the investigation of properties of the model both numerically
and analytically, the results suggested that the sales of a rm are
determined by the network structure of the business relations.
We compared our nonlinear model with the biased random walk
model, which is a generalized linear model.
12:20 12:40
Room S9
Contributed talk
The Predictability Of Consumer Pattern Visitation
Coco Krumme, Alejandro Llorente*, Manuel Cebrian, Alex Pentland and
Esteban Moro
We consider hundreds of thousands of individual economic
transactions to ask: how predictable are consumers in their mer-
chant visitation patterns? Our results suggest that, in the long-
run, much of our seemingly elective activity is actually highly pre-
dictable. Notwithstanding a wide range of individual preferences,
shoppers share regularities in how they visit merchant locations
over time. Yet while aggregate behavior is largely predictable, the
interleaving of shopping events introduces important stochastic
elements at short time scales. These short- and long-scale patterns
suggest a theoretical upper bound on predictability, and describe
the accuracy of a Markov model in predicting a persons next loca-
tion. We incorporate population-level transition probabilities in the
predictive models, and nd that in many cases these improve ac-
curacy. While our results point to the elusiveness of precise predic-
tions about where a person will go next, they suggest the existence,
at large time-scales, of regularities across the population.
12:40 13:00
Room S9
Contributed talk
Fair Sharing Of Resources In A Supply Network With Con-
straints
Rui Carvalho, Lubos Buzna, Wolfram Just, Dirk Helbing and David
Arrowsmith
This paper investigates the effect of network topology on the
fair allocation of network resources among a set of agents, an all-
important issue for the efciency of transportation networks all
around us. We analyse a generic mechanism that distributes net-
work capacity fairly among existing ow demands. The problem
can be solved by semi-analytical methods on a nearest neighbour
graph with one source and sink pair, when transport occurs over
shortest paths. For this setup, we uncover a broad range of pat-
terns of intersecting shortest paths as a function of the distance
between the source and the sink. When the number of intersec-
tions is the maximum and the distance between the source and
the sink is large, we nd that a fair allocation implies a decrease
of at least 50% from the maximum throughput. We also nd that
the histogram of the ow allocations assigned to the agents decays
as a power-law with exponent -1. Our semi-analytical framework
suggests possible explanations for the well-known reduction of the
throughput in fair allocations. It also suggests that the combination
of network topology and routing rules can lead to highly uneven
(but fair) distributions of resources, a remark of caution to network
designers.
Chair: M. A. Serrano
13:00 13:50
Auditorium
Keynote talk
Sustainable Land-Use Systems: Complex or Just Complicated?
Daniel G. Brown (University of Michigan)
The coupled human-environment systems underlying sustain-
ability challenges exhibit the hallmarks of complex systems: het-
erogeneity, feedback, adaptation, and multi-level structures. The
number of actor types, decisions, spatial scales, and interactions
involved in determining outcomes in these systems can be quite
large, and their characteristics not fully understood or measured.
At the same time, there are very real policy questions for which
modeling results and predictions are needed. This has created mul-
tiple tensions. One is the desire for models that both represent
process knowledge accurately and have predictive skill. Where pro-
cesses are uncertain, models that attend to one of these goals may
be less successful with respect to the other. Another, of course,
is that models should be as simple possible, but no simpler.
Through examples from the SLUCE project, I outline lessons from
our experience developing agent-based models to represent the
dynamics of land-use systems in residential areas, their impacts on
ecological function, and policy interventions. I illustrate how we
engaged the above tensions and drew on expertise, theory, and data
from economics, geography, ecology, landscape architecture, and
planning. Based on both empirical and model-based results, and
models with varying degrees of simplicity, we have developed a
richer understanding of land-use dynamics and the roles of various
actors in those dynamics. Based on these experiences, I reect on
the roles of process uncertainty, parsimony, and data in agent-based
models of land-use systems and their effects on model usefulness
and generalizability.
Chair: R. M . Benito
15:00 15:20
Room A1
Contributed talk
Systemic Risk, Longer Duration Lending And Interbank Network
Structure
James Porter* and Giulia Iori
We consider measures of systemic risk and network structure
on empirical interbank exposure networks. In constructing empir-
ical interbank networks the typical approach is to look at periods
(usually one month long) and to add a directed edge between two
banks if lending takes place (typically only overnight lending is
considered due to the greater number of transactions). These edges
might be weighted, typically either by transaction volume or by
transaction count. We, by contrast, construct exposure networks
taking into account longer duration transactions and consider the
daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly exposure between institu-
tions.On these exposure networks we consider a number of mea-
sures of centrality and systemic importance in an effort to charac-
terise the most important institutions on a current exposure, rather
than historical interaction, basis. This approach is more directly
applicable to supervisory authorities, than the typical aggrega-
tive ones, as they are in principle able to apply these measures to
the current interbank exposure network.We contrast the resultant
measures of systemic importance. We determine when simpler,
local measures may be able to provide us with with some idea of
the global, systemic importance. We look at how the structure and
behavior changes when we look at longer duration transactions.
15:20 15:40
Room A1
Contributed talk
Triadic Closure Dynamics Drives Scaling-Laws In Social Multi-
plex Networks
Peter Klimek* and Stefan Thurner
Social networks exhibit scaling-laws for several structural char-
acteristics, such as the degree distribution, the scaling of the attach-
ment kernel, and the clustering coefcients as a function of node
degree. A detailed understanding if and how these scaling laws
are inter-related is missing so far, let alone whether they can be un-
derstood through a common, dynamical principle. We propose a
simple model for stationary network formation and show that the
three mentioned scaling relations follow as natural consequences of
triadic closure. The validity of the model is tested on multiplex data
from a well studied massive multiplayer online game. We nd that
the three scaling exponents observed in the multiplex data for the
friendship, communication and trading networks can simultane-
ously be explained by the model. These results suggest that triadic
closure could be identied as one of the fundamental dynamical
principles in social multiplex network formation.
15:40 16:00
Room A1
Contributed talk
Phase Transitions In The Q-Voter Model With Two Types Of
Stochastic Driving
Piotr Nyczka*, Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron and Jerzy Cislo
We study a nonlinear q-voter model with stochastic driving on a
complete graph. We investigate two types of
stochasticity that, using the language of social sciences, can be
interpreted as different kinds of nonconformity. From a social point
of view, it is very important to distinguish between two types non-
conformity, so-called anticonformity and independence. A majority
of work has suggested that these social differences may be com-
pletely irrelevant in terms of microscopic modeling that uses tools
of statistical physics and that both types of nonconformity play the
role of so-called social temperature. In this paper we clarify the
concept of social temperature and show that different types of noise
may lead to qualitatively different emergent properties. In particu-
lar, we show that in the model with anticonformity the critical value
of noise increases with parameter q, whereas in the model with in-
dependence the critical value of noise decreases with q.Moreover,
in the model with anticonformity the phase transition is continuous
for any value of q, whereas in the model with independence the
transition is continuous for q < 6 and discontinuous for q >= 6.
16:00 16:20
Room A1
Contributed talk
Intrinsic Motivation And Learning Dynamics
Arkady Zgonnikov and Ihor Lubashevsky*
We investigate how the dynamics of learning is affected by in-
trinsic motivation ones desire to learn something due to the
inherent joy obtained by the very process of learning. We study
a simple example of an intrinsically motivated agent adapting to
unknown environment. We show that the intrinsic motivation in-
duces the instability of the learning process that is stable in case of
rational agent. Most interestingly, the opposite effect may arise: the
learning dynamics is stabilized by high levels of intrinsic motiva-
tion. Based on presented results, we argue that the human intrinsic
motivation in particular and bounded rationality in general may
appear dominant in complex socio-economic systems.
16:20 16:40
Room A1
Contributed talk
Consensus Formation On Simplicial Complex Of Opinions
Milan Rajkovic* and Slobodan Maletic
Geometric realization of opinion is considered as a simplex and
the opinion space of a group of individuals is a simplicial complex
whose topological features are monitored in the process of opin-
ion formation. The agents are physically located on the nodes of
the scale-free network. Social interactions include all concepts of
social dynamics present in the mainstream models augmented by
four additional interaction mechanisms which depend on the local
properties of opinions and their overlapping properties. The results
pertaining to the formation of consensus are of particular interest.
An analogy with quantum mechanical pure states is established
through the application of the high dimensional combinatorial
Laplacian.
Chair: A. Sole
15:00 15:20
Room A2
Contributed talk
Towards A Generative Foundation Of A Science Of Complexity
Ton Jorg*
Complexity as a concept is getting more and more popular. Yet
complexity is still a problem for all of our sciences and their disci-
plines. Facing the real complexity of our world poses the question
how to read the complexity of reality? This question has no clear
answers. There is no clear paradigm of complexity that can deal
with complex systems. Across the different disciplines there is a
great diversity of dealing with the complexity of our real world.
At the same time confusion exists about the concept of complexity
itself. There is no clear vocabulary and language of complexity to
deal with complexity in the different disciplines of our sciences.
It is still not possible to describe precisely what were studying
(Mitchell, 2011). It may be concluded that complexity itself is a
complex topic to deal with in our sciences. A sound science of com-
plexity is still lacking. In this contribution, the foregoing descrip-
tion of the state of art is a starting point for analysis. The problem
at hand is that no single discipline can give answers for all disci-
plines. No single discipline can develop a method, vocabulary or
language of complexity to deal with the complexity of our world.
No single discipline is able to offer an altered account of reality for
all disciplines (Kauffman, 2009). The problems of ontology, episte-
mology and method/methodology involved seem too big to deal
with by any single discipline. It seems that we are waiting for the
right concepts and mathematics

A e to describe the many forms
of complexity we see in nature (Mitchell, 2011, p. 302). It may be
concluded that a general approach is needed; an approach which
is essentially transdisciplinary. With this approach it will be possi-
ble to see what the general problem is in facing the complexity of
our world. One of these general problems is the nonlinear nature
of complexity for all of our sciences. The question, then, is how
this nonlinear nature relates to the nature of a nonlinear complex
reality? Another general problem concerns the opening of spaces
in a world which may be taken as a world of the possible (Kauff-
man, 1993). The opening of this world is the key problem for our
sciences. Complexity is the key concept and the promising tool for
viewing the system of our sciences with new eyes. It is also the
key for opening this world. What is needed is a comprehensive
explanatory theory for complex systems (Mitchell, 2011, p. 303;
emphasis added). This theory should account for the generative
nature of order in our world. This theory should give an explana-
tion of how complex systems may operate as generative systems,
thriving on generative mechanisms. These systems and mecha-
nisms thrive on myriad interactions, but a calculus of generative
change, linked to these interactions, is still lacking (Jrg, 2011). Ac-
tually, it seems that the different disciplines are waiting for a new
paradigm of complexity, to become the generative foundation for
a science of complexity; a science, which is about the functioning
of complex, generative systems. This foundation should enable a
generative approach for our sciences which may be explanatory
about the generative mechanisms involved and their generative,
so-called multiplier effects. It will be a generative approach which
is fully transdisciplinary. This approach might be viewed as open-
ing new spaces of the possible, and new territories of complexity
(Mitchell, 2011, p. 303). A generative, transdisciplinary approach
will be an integrated and unifying approach. It will imply a new
language, with a new vocabulary, of terms and concepts, of use for
all disciplines of our sciences.
15:20 15:40
Room A2
Contributed talk
Effects Of Conict On Collective Movement Decision-Making
Brent Eskridge*, Blake Jordan and Ingo Schlupp
Collective movement is a necessary consequence of living and
working in groups. However, conicts of interest complicate col-
lective movements. Unfortunately, the effects of conict on the
decision-making process in these situations are not well under-
stood. In this paper, we present predictions on the effects of conict
on simulations using a model developed through observations of
movements in natural systems. Our simulations predict that there is
no critical conict value beyond which there is a drastic reduction
in collective movement success. Furthermore, our simulations show
that rarely will systems encounter higher than moderate levels of
conict.
15:40 16:00
Room A2
Contributed talk
Complexity Interdisciplinary Modeling
Philippe Journeau*
Complexity is a cornerstone for the progress of science: complex
environment, climate, society rely on a growing web of sciences,
among which Computational Complexity (CC), but is complexity
universally denable?
After its paradoxically simple Kolmogorov-Chaitin denition,
CC produced intertwined hierarchies of computational complexity
upon its own denitions of space and time. However, the extent to
which complexity, in other elds is approached by CC denition, is
critical for the modeling of interdisciplinary Complex Systems.
After a quick survey, we show how dimensionality yields an
interdisciplinary foundation for systematic complexity.
16:00 16:20
Room A2
Contributed talk
Multiplex Networks: Structure, Evolution, And Dynamics
Kwang-Il Goh*, Jeehye Choi, Jin Hyun Kim, Jung Yeol Kim, Kyu-Min Lee,
Sangchul Lee and Byungjoon Min
As a premier analytical framework for studying complex sys-
tems, the complex network theory until quite recently has mostly
been focused on single-layer framework. It is getting increasingly
appreciated, however, that many real-world complex systems are
multiplexnodes interact with multiple types of interactions (net-
work layers) which co-exist, co-evolve, and co-operate. Unraveling
the multiplexity and re-assembling in proper context will be cru-
cial in improved understanding the interplay of such multiplex
interactions that confer nontrivial consequences on network struc-
ture and dynamics. Here we present some recent progress towards
understanding the effect of network multiplexity. Topics to be dis-
cussed may include: generating function formalism for percolation
in correlated multiplex networks and its topological robustness and
biconnectivity properties from network structural point; network
evolution model based on the coevolution of network layers; effects
of multiplexity on network dynamics such as threshold cascades,
epidemic spreading, opinion dynamics, and diffusion.
16:20 16:40
Room A2
Contributed talk
Levels Of Organization Of Complex Systems
Georgi Georgiev*, Amrit Vinod, Michael Daly and Erin Gombos
A measure for organization of complex systems, based on the
least action principle, is applied to a model system - the central
processing unit (CPU) of computers. This is one example of opti-
mization in complex ow networks. The quantity of organization
for several generations of CPUs shows a double exponential rate
of change of organization with time. It has a ne, S-shaped struc-
ture, revealing some of the mechanisms of self-organization. The
principle of least action helps to explain the mechanism of increase
of organization through quantity accumulation and constraint and
curvature minimization with an attractor, the least average sum of
actions of all elements and for all motions.
Chair: M. De Domenico
15:00 15:20
Room A3
Contributed talk
Long-Range Navigation On Complex Networks Using Lvy Ran-
dom Walks
Jose L. Mateos*
We introduce a strategy of navigation on networks, which is in-
spired by Lvy random walks, generalizing previous navigation
rules. We obtained exact expressions for the stationary probability
distribution, the occupation probability, the mean rst passage time,
and the average time to reach a node on the network. Long-range
navigation using the Lvy random walks, compared with the nor-
mal random walks, is more efcient at reducing the time to cover
the network. The dynamical effect of using the Lvy walk strat-
egy is to transform a large-world network into a small world. Our
exact results provide a general framework that connects two impor-
tant elds: Lvy navigation strategies and dynamics on complex
networks.
15:20 15:40
Room A3
Contributed talk
Reducing Network Observables
David Fourquet, Jean-Philippe Cointet and Camille Roth
Different disciplines have designed and used various observables
for measuring, ranking and classifying real-world or synthetic net-
works. Assuming that several distinct measures stemming from
a variety of research elds may actually be related, we aim at ex-
hibiting similarity classes for network observables. We consider a
set of 66 typical network-level observables and use a PCA-based
framework to describe potential systematic correlations between
their values over a series of small-sized empirical networks. More
broadly, we contend that this type of approach may be help reduce
the set of network observables and shed light on underlying resem-
blances between them.
15:40 16:00
Room A3
Contributed talk
Collective Effects Of Heterogeneity And Stochasticity In Interacting-
Particle Systems
Luis Lafuerza* and Raul Toral
We study stochastic particle systems made up of heterogeneous
units. We introduce a general framework suitable to analytically
study this kind of systems and apply it to two particular models
of interest in economy and epidemiology. We show that particle
heterogeneity can enhance or decrease the size of the collective
uctuations depending on the system, and that it is possible to infer
the degree and the form of the heterogeneity distribution in the
system by measuring only global variables and their uctuations.
Our work shows that, in some cases, heterogeneity among the units
components a systems can be fully taken into account without
loosing analytical tractability.
16:00 16:20
Room A3
Contributed talk
Simple Functions To Discover Some Properties Of The Recur-
rence Plots
Maria Carmela Catone*
The recurrence plot is an important tool of data visualization
and it is useful to understand the general structure of a system,
showing hidden recurring elements. Starting from the analysis
of some functions, various properties of the recurrence plot are
interpreted and veried, proving that sequences characterized by
trend form a white area around the bisector that widens where
the slope of the curve decreases. Moreover, the recurrence plots
of periodic series (iterated structure), casual series (homogeneous
and disordered conguration) and chaotic series (regular pattern
without periodicity) are observed. In conclusion, moving the study
toward the visualization and the understanding of real data, some
recurrence plots, concerning the behaviour of visits to a website, are
explored, identifying the presence of different levels of colour that
indicates the relation between the data.
16:20 16:40
Room A3
Contributed talk
Using Temporal Correlations In The Visualization Of Aggregate
Representations Of Dynamic Networks
Ingo Scholtes*
Complex systems occurring in various disciplines are increas-
ingly being analyzed and modeled in terms of networks. When
exploring the structure and function of such complex systems, net-
work visualization has become a standard technique. Many of the
systems being considered are inherently dynamic and in recent
years data on their dynamics are increasingly becoming available
in the form of dynamic networks. Nevertheless, the visual explo-
ration of complex networks is typically based on a time-aggregated
representation in which the underlying sequence of time-varying
interactions are aggregated into a static network. It is clear that -
when aggregating time-stamped interactions into a static network
- important information, e.g. about temporal correlations or the
ordering of edges is lost. In this talk, we propose a simple mecha-
nism that can be used to include temporal correlations present in
time-stamped network data in the force-directed layout of time-
aggregated networks. We validate our methodology by showing
that the resulting visualizations reveal important aspects like e.g.
community structures of the dynamics which - although present in
empirical data sets - a) are not represented in static, aggregate net-
works and b) cannot easily be seen even in dynamic visualizations
of temporal networks.
Chair: J. Gleeson
15:00 15:20
Room A4
Contributed talk
Innovation Diffusion In Networks: The Microeconomics Of Per-
colation
Paolo Zeppini*, Koen Frenken and Luis R. Izquierdo
We implement a diffusion model for an innovative product in a
market characterized by a structure of social relationships. Diffu-
sion is described with a percolation approach, which stems from
the economic hypothesis of heterogeneous reservation prices. There
is a threshold value for the innovation price that denes a phase
transition from a diffusion to a no-diffusion regime. This has strong
implications for market demand. We study percolation in Small-
worlds networks, and our results challenge the common hypothesis
that these structures facilitate diffusion. We show that a percolation
mechanisms benets from low clustering rather than low average
path length. Network connectivity "spreading" is the driving factor
of diffusion.Hence, social structures with low clustering, such as
"individualistic" societies, aremost benecial for innovation diffu-
sion.
15:20 15:40
Room A4
Contributed talk
Social Brain: A New Model For The Emergence Of Behavior
Cascades
Javier Borge-Holthoefer*, Pablo Piedrahita, Alex Arenas and Yamir
Moreno
The ability to understand and eventually predict the emergence
of cascades of information in social networks has deep implications
in social science. However, the complexity of social interactions
makes this challenge elusive. Previous works on cascade models
assume that the emergence of this collective phenomenon is re-
lated to the activity observed in the local neighborhood of each
individual, but do not include the particular willingness of the in-
dividual to spread information in a time-varying process. Here we
present a mechanistic model that accounts for the temporal evolu-
tion of the individual state in a simplied periodic setup. We model
the activity of the individuals as a complex network of interact-
ing integrate-and-re oscillators, in what we call, by analogy with
neural networks, a social brain". The model reproduces the statis-
tical characteristics of the cascades in real systems, and provides a
framework to study time-evolution of cascades in a state-dependent
activity scenario.
15:40 16:00
Room A4
Contributed talk
Measuring The Likelihood Of Housing Bubbles: A Spatio-
Temporal Analysis
Takaaki Ohnishi*, Takayuki Mizuno, Chihiro Shimizu, Hiroshi Iyetomi
and Tsutomu Watanabe
Detecting housing bubbles is of great importance today; our new
method to determine the existence of a bubble is to check whether
there are price gaps between houses with the same fundamentals.
We carries out Gearys test to verify whether size-adjusted housing
prices follow a normal distribution, and dene the magnitude of
a bubble by the size of a market area, in which price gaps do not
exist. We applied this method to the case of the Tokyo Area. The re-
sult is that a housing bubble rst emerged in central Tokyo around
1988, then spread toward southwest; it eventually culminated in
1992, followed by the gradual disappearance from southwest; after
the year 1998, every region generally belongs in the same market
area.
16:00 16:20
Room A4
Contributed talk
Emotional Transfers In A Bbc Forum Multiplex Network
Anna Chmiel, Julian Sienkiewicz, Mike Thelwall, Georgios Paltoglou,
Stefan Thurner and Janusz Holyst
We consider emotional dependencies between various levels of
a multiplex network formed by 98000 discussion threads in BBC
Forums. Each post was classied as negative, neutral or positive
using a sentiment analysis algorithm. Relations between probability
distributions of emotional valencies at different levels were studied
using the Jensen - Shannon divergence. This divergence decreases
with an increase in the number of inter-nodes between the levels.
The result is a proof of emotional transfers between various levels
of this multiplex network.
16:20 16:40
Room A4
Contributed talk
A Teaching Sequence For Teaching Greek Undergraduate Teach-
ers About Critical Behavior In Complex Systems, Using Netlogo
Aristotelis Gkiolmas*, Maria Papaconstantinou, Anthimos Chalkidis,
Constantine Skordoulis, Kostas Karamanos and Dimitrios Stavrou
The overall present research produced an applicable teaching
sequence for teaching certain basic properties of natural Complex
Systems, to undergraduate Greek Primary School teachers. In this
paper, focus is given to one sub-group of these properties: Critical
Behavior, Critical Transitions and Percolation. The whole teaching
sequence was based on a Constructionist framework, and used (i)
an Inquiry-based-learning methodology, and (ii) NetLogo as the
main instruction tool. The sequence was afterwards tested in a
case study. The data gathered, gave encouraging results in that this
teaching method may help undergraduate non-Science students,
and especially teachers, conceptualise Critical behavior in Complex
Systems. Furthermore, criteria about achieved Complex Systems
understanding and learning were used: (i) the Structure-Behavior-
Function (SBF) characteristics, and (ii) the novices vs. experts
in Complex Systems juxtaposition.
Chair: J. A. Capitan
15:00 15:20
Room S9
Contributed talk
Optimal Mutualistic Ecological Networks: Emergent Structural
And Dynamical Properties
Samir Suweis, Filippo Simini, Jayanth Banavar and Amos Maritan
Mutualistic networks in ecology have generically evolved a
nested architecture independent of species composition and lat-
itude. Despite sustained efforts to explain the observed nested
network structure, the search for a fundamental principle driv-
ing mutualistic network architecture has been ineffective. Here we
demonstrate that nested interaction networks emerge as a result
of an optimization principle aimed at maximizing the abundance
of the species in the mutualistic community. Optimized networks,
while remaining stable, tend to be less resilient than their coun-
terparts with randomly assigned interactions. Our work provides
a unifying framework for studying the emergent structural and
dynamical properties of ecological mutualistic networks.
15:20 15:40
Room S9
Contributed talk
Rethinking The Logistic Approach For Population Dynamics Of
Mutualistic Interactions
Javier Garcia-Algarra, Javier Galeano*, Juan Manuel Pastor, Jose Maria
Iriondo and Jose J. Ramasco
Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes
them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused
on their stability and the topology of the relations between the dif-
ferent organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness.
Much less attention has been invested in analysing the systems
dynamics. The main population models in use are modications
of the logistic equation with additional terms to account for the
benets produced by the interactions between species. These mod-
els have shortcomings as the so called r-K formulation of logistic
equation diverges under some conditions.
In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics of
mutualistic interactions based in the logistic equation that avoids
these singularities. The model is also mathematically simpler than
the widely used type II additional mutualistic term.
In this study, we perform an analytical stability analysis and
nd stable stationary points at extinction condition and carrying
capacities; we also nd a saddle point (unstable) that regulates the
boundary between the basis of attraction of the other stable xed
points and, therefore controls the resilience of the full system to
external perturbations.
Finally, we have performed numerical simulations to study the
model behavior in more general interaction scenarios to test the
system resilience under external perturbations. Despite its sim-
plicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an im-
portant richness and it can be used to gain further insights in the
dynamics of mutualistic interactions.
15:40 16:00
Room S9
Contributed talk
Estimation Of Reaction Fluxes In Metabolic Networks Beyond
Flux Balance Analysis: Weighted Population Dynamics
Francesc Font-Clos, Francesco Alessandro Massucci and Isaac Perez
Castillo
The estimation of reaction uxes in metabolic networks is a topic
of growing interest in recent years. Under the assumption of a
non-equilibrium steady state, the problem is generally underdeter-
mined, leaving a space of solutions that is hard to sample. Popular
techniques like Flux Balance Analysis approximate such volume
by a single point that maximizes a given objective function. This
approach, however, is not valid in absence of an adhoc optimiza-
tion strategy (e.g. in a mutant). In this talk we show how to obtain
the marginal distributions of the reaction uxes in the network.
Our method is validated in synthetic systems of small size, where
comparison with known Monte Carlo procedures is feasible. The
excellent agreement, and the fact that our method scales linearly
with system size, suggest that it could be used in genome-scale
metabolic networks, providing very rich information about micro-
bial metabolic activity.
16:00 16:20
Room S9
Contributed talk
Stochastic Amplication And Propagation Of Childhood Diseases
In Large Geographical Areas
Ramona Marguta* and Andrea Parisi
Our research focuses on the study of the disease spread in ge-
ographically detailed populations, in particular on the study of
stochastic amplication. We use a individual based SIR model with
demography to investigate propagation of childhood diseases in
a geographically detailed population. Long-distance transmission
occursdue to mobility of individuals, implemented using the re-
cently introduced Radiation model. Results show that some of the
features of data available on measles can be understood in terms of
stochastic amplication.
16:20 16:40
Room S9
Contributed talk
Analysing The Mutational Pathways Of A Von Neumann Self-
Reproducer Within The Avida World
Tomonori Hasegawa* and Barry McMullin
The architecture of machine self-reproduction proposed by John
von Neumann is studied within an articial life platform known
as Avida. To shed light on the evolutionary potential of the von
Neumann style self-reproduction within the Avida world, we pre-
liminarily characterise a hand-designed self-reproducer by exten-
sive single-point mutation analysis. Although not surprisingly, the
vast majority of the single-point mutants were classied as infertile,
whereas the rest minorities as fertile and as yet unclassied. We
conclude this paper by suggesting the possible enhancement of the
analysis.
Satellites
Wednesday, September 18th
Morning
Room S11 Theories and tools for the new Non-Equilibrium Social Science
Organizers: P. Ormerod, B. Rosewell, A. Nowak, Y. Zhang, J. Johnson, B.
Gaminha, J. Loua
Satellite Website
Non-equilibrium rather than equilibrium is a key characteristic
of many situations in human social environments. This raises fun-
damental issues from social sciences such as economics, sociology,
and psychology, by also from mathematics and physics. NonEqui-
librium Social Science pretends to bring together contributions from
this diversity of disciplines, aiming to identify appropriate theoreti-
cal and experimental tools allowing a non-equilibrium approach of
social systems.
The main goal of the satellite is to identify appropriate theoret-
ical and experimental tools allowing a non-equilibrium approach
of social systems. Speakers will be invited to propose and describe
new or existing tools for non-equilibrium social science.
Contributions can come from applied domains such as:
network theory
econophysics
multi-agent based modeling
kinetic theory
Big Data
data mining
social simulation
social media data gathering and analysis
and others.
The relevance of theoretical and experimental tools will be anal-
ysed from a transdisciplinary social science perspective. Demos will
be welcome.
The appropriate levels of analysis, the potential for prediction,
and the ability to understand the consequences of policy interven-
tions will be discussed regarding all contributions.
The satellite will be of interest to a wide range of social scientists,
for example anthropologists, sociologists, economists, psycholo-
gists. In addition, physical scientists and mathematicians who wish
to engage with the social science community will be attracted by
the fact that there is serious interest in developing more realistic,
empirically based and analytically challenging models in the social
sciences. We also hope that Chinese scholars interested in complex
systems will be attracted, building on the China-EU summer school
in Shanghai in 2010, and the more recent NESS meeting held in
December 2012 in Hangzou.
Room S12 Complexity Science and Transport Systems
Organizers: F. Lillo, S. Micicche, M. Zanin
Satellite Website
In continuation of the ComplexWorld Networks previous and
highly successful ECCS satellite meetings: Complexity and the
Future of Transportation Systems, ECCS 2011; and Complexity
Paradigms for Smart, Green and Integrated Transport, ECCS 12,
the ComplexWorld Network will this year again host a satellite
meeting focused on the topic of transport systems and Complexity
Science.
Titled, accordingly, Complexity Science and Transport Systems,
the ECCS 2013 satellite event will assess the problems of transporta-
tion systems through Complex Systems theory and methodologies,
paying particular attention to generating new ideas and solutions
that can be applied to current, real-life transport systems to im-
prove their performance.
Transportation systems are composed of a large number of het-
erogeneous elements, interacting, perceiving different information
from the environment, and pursuing heterogeneous/different aims.
Examples range from very well known systems, like road trafc dy-
namics, up to new elds, such as Air Transport Networks. Plenty of
examples can be found in the literature about how different Com-
plex Systems tools can be used to understand the internal dynamics
of transport systems: from Complex Networks, up to percolation
and self-organization.
The objective of this satellite meeting is to create a space for
exchanging state-of-the-art results between Complex Science and
Transport System researchers, fostering an interdisciplinary forum
of discussion, and the generation of new ideas and approaches.
Following is a non-exhaustive list of topics:
Topological properties of transportation systems, and the rela-
tions between topology and efciency / resilience / propagation
satellites 195
of disturbances.
Dynamics of and on transportation systems: from movements
of persons and goods, up to diseases and information spreading
mechanisms.
Emerging behaviors and critical phase transitions in transporta-
tion systems.
Applications of multi-layer and time-varying network represen-
tations.
Statistically validated networks and community detection algo-
rithms.
Smart, Green and Integrated Transport.
Afternoon
Room S11 Smart Cities, Complexity and Urban Networks
Organizers: J. Ramasco, O. Garcia-Cantu, A. Serret
Satellite Website
The concept of the smart city emerged during the last decade
as a fusion of ideas about how ICT might improve the functioning
of cities, enhancing their efciency and contributing to sustainable
development and high quality of life. Currently the central role of
ICT lies at the core of the concept, but the term smart city goes
beyond the idea of ICT-driven cities, embracing also the investment
in human, social, and environmental capital.
Thanks to the pervasive access to information, citizens activities
can be more easily monitored, but also affected and modied. ICT
tools empower citizens to make more informed decisions (e.g. re-
garding their travel behavior, energy and resources consumption
habits, etc.) and are leading to new forms of social relationships, as
well as to the introduction of new activities such as e-shopping or
telework. At the same time, the penetration of ICT is turning indi-
viduals into passive and/or active sensors that produce, exchange
and consume an increasing amount of information, generating a
variety of heterogeneous data on citizens preferences and behavior.
Such feedback loops between citizens and city planners and man-
agers are therefore modifying urban dynamics, as well as opening
new opportunities for understanding such dynamics and devel-
oping new approaches to the design and management of urban
systems. The explosion of available data and the development of
new forms of data analysis can inform the development of better
urban theories and simulation models. Recent advances in areas
such as spatial networks or agent-based computational modelling,
and more generally the intrinsically holistic and eclectic approach
advocated by complexity science, appear as a suitable theoretical
framework for the integration of different modelling approaches
into a comprehensive toolkit to address the many different ques-
tions related to smart cities.
The objective of the workshop, which is mainly related to Con-
ference Track 3 Infrastructures, Planning and Environment, is to
create a space for exchanging state-of-the-art results and innovative
ideas on how to address the problems and opportunities opened by
smart cities through complex systems theory and methodologies.
Particular attention will be devoted to new data-driven approaches
to the study of the formation and evolution of urban networks, as
well as to new strategies for improving the planning and manage-
ment of urban infrastructures, such as transportation, energy, or
water distribution.
Room S12 Complexity-NET projects: Interdisciplinary Challenges for Com-
plexity Science
Organizers: M. Van Duin
Satellite Website
ECCS13 will be a major international conference and event in
the area of complex systems and interdisciplinary science in gen-
eral. It will offer unique opportunities to study novel scientic
approaches in a multitude of application areas. Two days of the
conference, 18 and 19 of September, are reserved for satellite meet-
ings, which will cover a broad range of subjects on all aspects of
Complex Systems, as reected by the conference tracks. For more
information: http://www.eccs13.eu. Complexity-NET contributes
to ECCS13 by organising a satallite meeting.
All Day
Room Port Vell Dynamics on and of Complex Networks (special theme: Semiotic
dynamics in time-varying social media)
Organizers: J-C. Delvenne, F. Ghanbarnejad, B. Mitra, A. Mukherjee, I.
Scholtes
Satellite Website
Network Science has recently attracted the attention of a large
number of researchers from across various disciplines, mainly due
to its ubiquitous applicability in modeling the structure and dy-
namics of large-scale complex systems (both natural and man-
made). Examples of such systems, exhibiting complex interaction
patterns among their constituent entities, range from genetic path-
ways and ecological networks to the WWW, peer-to-peer networks,
satellites 197
and blogs and online web-social networks (such as Facebook, Orkut
and Twitter).
For the past ve years, the primary aim of the series of work-
shops "Dynamics on and of Complex Networks", held as a satellite
meeting of the European Conference on Complex Systems, has been
to explore the (statistical) dynamics on and of such complex net-
works. Dynamics on networks refers to the different types of so
called processes (e.g. proliferation, diffusion etc.) that take place on
networks. The functionality/efciency of such processes is strongly
affected by the topology as well as the dynamic behavior of the
network. On the other hand, Dynamics of networks mainly refers
to various phenomena (for instance self-organization, evolutionary
clustering) that go on in order to bring about certain changes in the
topology of the network.
It has become clear from the past series of DOOCN workshops
that modeling dynamical networks such as dynamic trafcking net-
works or telephone/human communication networks have gained
enormous importance. However, in the constantly changing mod-
ern world, there is an urgent need to understand problems related
to systems that dynamically evolve in either structurally or func-
tionally, or both. One such important area is semiotic dynamics
how communication systems dynamically evolve over time, how
opinions/shared conventions emerge in dynamically changing so-
cial media, how collaborative tagging systems function etc. Conse-
quently, this year the workshop will focus on this particular theme,
i.e., "Semiotic dynamics in time-varying social media".
A closer inspection would make it clear that the issues and the
related problems in this area are still very loosely dened. The
primary objective of this interdisciplinary workshop would be to
tie these loose ends and concretize the problems that need to be
urgently addressed through intensive discussions among the ex-
pert scientists in this area. In this line, this workshop will provide
a platform for the convergence of multi-disciplinary research con-
tributions that combine methods from computer science, statistical
physics, econometrics and social network theory towards modeling
time varying social, semiotic and information systems. In addition,
this may be an opportunity to get familiar with the cutting-edge
research contributions exploring key issues, challenges, and char-
acteristics of dynamical networks that emerge in various complex
systems.
Room A1 Quantifying Success
Organizers: R. Sinatra, C. Song, D. Wang
Satellite Website
Outliers are everywhere. Think about google on the web, a
highly cited paper in scientic enterprise, most inuential inven-
tions/patents, the popularity of a hashtag in twitter, the gangnam
style video on youtube, most productive workers in an organiza-
tion. All these are examples of success. What makes high-achievers
different? How did they get there? What are the quantitative pat-
terns behind these outliers? How does social dynamics drive suc-
cess? When success is attributed collectively, as in the case of highly
cited papers, what is the role of the network? Is success conta-
gious?
This satellite meeting will be an opportunity to discuss different
approaches to quantify success across different scientic domains,
with a main focus on data-driven approaches. Quantifying success
is by nature an interdisciplinary meeting and will bring together
researchers from a broad range of disciplines such as physics, math-
ematics, social sciences, computer science, economy and manage-
ment science. Particular attention will be devoted to the following
topics:
Dynamics of impact
Citation dynamics of papers and patents
Adoption and success of products and technologies
Dynamics in social media, such as popularity of hashtags and
viral videos
Temporal evolution of rankings in a system
Career success and longevity in different professions
Role of networks in success
Room A2 Mathematical Methods in Multi-Level Systems
Organizers: F. Atay, K. Lindgren
Satellite Website
It is generally agreed that complex systems are comprised of a
large number of sub-components and their interactions; moreover,
they often exhibit different levels and possess structure at different
spatial and temporal scales. Consequently, for the understand-
ing of complex systems, the interplay between those levels and
scales is fundamental. In some applications, the levels are already
given or can be naturally identied, for instance as neurons, brains,
satellites 199
individuals, and social organizations, based on which scientic
disciplines like neuroscience, psychology, sociology, economy, etc.,
have evolved. Moreover, even within a single discipline, it is often
necessary or desirable to seek and understand multiple levels of
description. On the other hand, in many applications natural candi-
dates for levels are not always obvious. In general, understanding
the role of levels in complex systems remains a grand challenge and
generally applicable tools and methods are scarce. This workshop
aims to discuss mathematical methods for the description of com-
plex multi-level systems and their dynamics. Specic topics will
include
Structure formation and information ow within and between
levels
Methods for identifying emergent levels
Coarse graining of patterns and networks
Dynamical systems on graphs and hypergraphs
Understanding the level structure and dynamics resulting from
aggregation and averaging methods
Additionally, multi-level approaches in the application areas
of neurobiology, economics, and human communication will be
discussed.
Room A3 Smart Territory and Networks
Organizers: M.A. Aziz-Alaoui, A. Banos, C.Bertelle, G. H.E. Duchamp
Satellite Website
Territorial systems development needs nowadays to be analyzed
with all the complexity of the interaction of their components.
These interacting components are of various types mixing mul-
tiscale entities: individuals, organizations, spatial locations, etc.
New technologies, new communications, worldwide economy, so-
cial and economical issues are acting upon these systems and their
entities, generating a high level of complexity. Our objective is to
propose models and simulations in order to better analyze these
systems creation, their morphologies and their evolution. Territorial
complex systems are structured with complex networks: road sys-
tems, energetic networks, social networks, etc. Advanced theoretical
studies on dynamical processes on such networks are needed to
propose relevant models, to analyze and improve them. To better
understand the development and the issues of territorial systems,
this satellite meeting will be gathering contributions at two levels:
Theoretical contributions are expected to propose conceptual
approaches mainly based on complex systems theory, on com-
plex networks dynamics (including for exemple, self-organized
processes), on network topology and on control of network dy-
namics.
Applicative contributions are expected to focuss on (i) Mobility
on urban networks, as dynamical processes on dynamic graphs,
in order to analyze the performance of urban planning; (ii) Ur-
ban networks morphodynamics to analyze the impact of a net-
work topology on its own dynamics. Some example of practical
issues are the study of territorial resilience, the study of smart
grid development based on self-organization processes, the study
of the efcience of territory based on its logistics networks, etc.
Room A4 Cultural and opinion dynamics: Modelling, Experiments and
Challenges for the future
Organizers: T. Carletti, G. Deffuant, S. Huet, F. Gargiulo, K. Sznajd-
Weron
Satellite Website
The aims of the workshop are:
To draw collectively the "state of the art" of the currently avail-
able main families of hypotheses (models) and the applicability
domains, the corresponding set of emergent dynamics (results)
and the possible - role of the different hypotheses about the
type of network of interactions.
To reduce the gap with social experiments and to go beyond the
disciplines borders, by interacting with social-psychologists to
learn about the current state of experiments. To nd a common
framework to design new experimental techniques based on
modern technologies (sensor devices, smartphones apps, internet
interfaces).
To discuss the model validation with real data and analyze
which kind of stylized fact of reality are reproduced.
To foster the research by exchanging knowledge concerning
methods for abstract models, for the set of emergent phenomena.
To discuss the main challenges to address by the eld in the
years to come, both theoretically and experimentally, with a
particular emphasis to web collected experimental data.
satellites 201
Room S2+3 Complexity in Multicellular Environments
Organizers: S. Ares, J. Buceta, L. Morelli
Satellite Website
Complex collective behavior develops in multicellular biological
systems from the interaction of individual cells. The emergence of
complexity in this context relies on the crosstalk of a hierarchy of
spatiotemporal scales, from molecules to cells and to tissues (and
back), that ultimately determine a biological function. The objective
of this workshop is twofold. On the one hand, we aim at unveiling
the big picture of these processes by combining the point of view
of experimental biologists and theorists. On the other hand, we
also aim at promoting collaborations between these groups. Thus,
the idea is that the workshop should not simply be a framework to
present state-of-the-art research but, more importantly, a vehicle to
discuss, collaborate, and learn how and why complexity arises in
this framework.
Room S4 Information Processing in Complex Systems
Organizers: E. Merelli, A. Hoekstra, R. Quax
Satellite Website
All systems in nature have one thing in common: they process
information. Information is registered in the state of a system and
its elements, implicitly and invisibly. As elements interact, infor-
mation is transferred. Indeed, bits of information about the state
of one element will travel imperfectly to the state of the other
element, forming its new state. This storage and transfer of infor-
mation, possibly between levels of a multi level system, is imperfect
due to randomness or noise. From this viewpoint, a system can be
formalized as a collection of bits that is organized according to its
rules of dynamics and its topology of interactions. Mapping out
exactly how these bits of information percolate through the system
could reveal new fundamental insights in how the parts orchestrate
to produce the properties of the system. A theory of information
processing would be capable of dening a set of universal prop-
erties of dynamical multi level complex systems, which describe
and compare the dynamics of diverse complex systems ranging
from social interaction to brain networks, from nancial markets to
biomedicine. Each possible combination of rules of dynamics and
topology of interactions, with disparate semantics, would reduce to
a single language of information processing.
Room S5 Topological Methods for Complexity Science
Organizers: P. Skraba, F. Vaccarino
Satellite Website
Many complex systems are characterized by multi-level prop-
erties that make the study of their dynamics and of their emerg-
ing phenomena a daunting task. The huge amount of data avail-
able in modern sciences is expected to promote rapid progress in
these areas, even though the nature of the data varies. Given the
heterogeneity of the data, topological features often clearly con-
vey important qualitative features of a system, while retaining the
quantitative rigour.
This workshop aims at offering an up-to-date view on the study
of complex multi-level systems via topological methods such as
persistent (co)homology and techniques from topological dynamics.
It will be held as a satellite to the European Conference on Com-
plexity Science (http://www.eccs13.eu/) on September 18, 2013, in
Barcelona, Spain.
Room S6+7 Guided Self-Organization 6
Organizers: M. Prokopenko, C. Gershenson, D. Polani
Satellite Website
The goal of Guided Self-Organization (GSO) is to leverage the
strengths of self-organization while still being able to direct the
outcome of the self-organizing process. GSO typically has the fol-
lowing features: (i) an increase in organization (structure and/or
functionality) over some time; (ii) the local interactions are not
explicitly guided by any external agent; (iii) task-independent ob-
jectives are combined with task-dependent constraints.
Of particular interest are well-founded, but general methods for
characterizing such systems in a principled way with the view of
ultimately allowing them to be guided toward pre-specied goals.
Information theory, nonlinear dynamics and graph theory are core
to many of these methods, and quantifying complexity and its
sources is a common theme.
A number of attempts have been made to formalize aspects
of GSO within information theory and dynamical systems: em-
powerment, information-driven evolution, robust overdesign, re-
inforcementdriven homeokinesis, predictive information-based
homeokinesis, interactive learning, etc. What is common to many
examples of GSO is the characterization of a system-environment
loop in information-theoretic terms. However, the lack of a broadly
applicable mathematical framework across multiple scales and
satellites 203
contexts leaves GSO methodology incomplete. Devising such a
framework and identifying common principles of guidance are the
main themes of the GSO-2013 workshop, continuing the tradition
established at previous GSO Workshops: GSO-2008 (Sydney, Aus-
tralia), GSO-2009 (Leipzig, Germany), GSO-2010 (Bloomington,
USA), GSO-2011 (Hateld, UK), and GSO-2012 (Sydney, Australia).
The GSO-2013 workshop will bring together invited experts and
researchers in self-organizing systems, with particular emphasis on
the information- and graph-theoretic foundations of GSO and the
information dynamics of adaptive systems. The following topics are
of special interest: information-theoretic measures of complexity,
nonlinear dynamics, complex networks, information-driven self-
organization (IDSO), applications of GSO to complex networks,
distributed computation, machine learning, swarm intelligence,
bio-inspired systems, computational neuroscience, systems biology,
cooperative and modular robotics, etc.
Room S9 Complexity in Online Social Networks and Big Data
Organizers: M. Bogua, M. A. Serrano, S. Girdzijauskas, S. Haridi, M.
Dikaiakos, G. Pallis, E. Ferrari, F. Paraskevi, S. Ioannidis, E. Dekel, B.
Mandler, S. El-Ansary, P. Lio, Y. Meralli
Satellite Website
The rapid proliferation of Online Social Networking (OSN) ser-
vices like Facebook, Twitter and Google+ has made a profound
impact on the Internet and tends to reshape its structure, design,
and utility. Industry experts believe that OSNs create a potentially
transformational change in consumer behavior and will bring a far-
reaching inuence on traditional industries of content, media, and
communications.
The main goal of this workshop, which is mainly related to Con-
ference Tracks of Social Systems and Information and Commu-
nication Technologies is to serve as a focal point for exchanging
state-of-the-art results and innovative ideas on how to address the
problems and opportunities related with Complexity in Online
Social Networks and Big Data. Emphasis will be given on mod-
eling the dynamics of online social networking services from the
viewpoint of the Science of Complex Networks and exploiting
theoretical insights for the design, modeling and simulation of
massive-scale DOSN infrastructures.
Room S10 Modeling of Disease Contagion Processes
Organizers: S. Meloni, C. Poletto, V. Colizza, Y. Moreno
Satellite Website
Contagion processes are widespread in biological and techno-
social systems. Everything is contagious: from infectious diseases
to rumors, from emotions to innovation and technologies. Habits,
memes, knowledge and even debt crisis are transmissible. The
complex dynamics of contagion phenomena is often the result of
heterogeneous, dynamical and multi-scale patterns of interactions
among the systems elements, thus hindering our understanding
and control of the emerging spreading processes. The latter is par-
ticularly relevant when it comes to understand how an epidemic
outbreak arises and unfolds: everything is interconnected and im-
pact the evolution of the disease, from the systems elements to the
interplay of multiple contagion processes themselves. For example,
when a disease breaks into a human population, the behavioral
response of individuals may crucially alter the disease spread a
response induced by individuals awareness, fear, and beliefs that
spreads in the population mediated by social interaction and com-
munication.
Accurate data on hosts and spreaders as well as interaction
patterns that underlie disease contagion phenomena represent a
fundamental input for the study of these processes. Data-driven ap-
proaches, as well as theoretical models aimed at exploring the basic
mechanisms at play are both important steps to achieve a compre-
hensive and fundamental understanding of large scale epidemic
spreading processes, and to provide critical information allowing
for their prediction, prevention and control.
The satellite meeting will be an opportunity for discussing the
recent advances in the study of disease contagion in multi-scale
systems. The aim of the workshop is to be fully interdisciplinary
and bring together researchers from a broad range of disciplines
such as physics, mathematics, biology, epidemiology, human and
veterinary medicine, computer science, information technologies
and social sciences.
Particular attention will be devoted to the following topics:
Mobility-driven spatial spreading
Implications of contact patterns and agents heterogeneity for
transmission
Temporally evolving networks and dynamics of disease conta-
gion
Interdependent and multi-strain disease contagion processes
satellites 205
Thursday, September 19th
Morning
Room S11 Complexity & Design
Organizers: J. Johnson, A. Lucas-Smith, B. Madsen, J. Bromley, D. Ro-
drigues, M. Cook
Satellite Website
The objective of the Satellite Meeting is to examine the following
hypothesis:
To survive and prosper in a complex economic environment
businesses and the public sector must develop ADAPTIVE and
RESILIENT capabilities. Since these capabilities are properties of
complex systems, it follows that we have to design complexity into
business and social processes
Room S12 Variation and contact in languaging: Ecological and complex
approaches
Organizers: A. Bastardas, A Massip-Bonet
Satellite Website
In their attempts to grasp the phenomena of language variation,
change, contact, and evolution, ecological and complex perspectives
have given rise fundamentally to two parallel lines of approaches
that rarely come together. One line contains contributions that draw
inspiration from the seminal work of, for example, William Labov
and Joshua Fishman, engage in the analogical application of the
premises and models of biological ecology, derive from sociological
and philosophical propositions (e.g., Norbert Elias, Edgar Morin)
and/or make use of the ideas of a number of physicists whose
explorations have addressed how their notions might also apply to
the sociocultural sphere (e.g., David Bohm, Fritjof Capra). The other
line contains contributions more closely linked to mathematics,
computer science and the modelling devised by physicists in the
eld best known as complex systems. These contributions draw
their inspiration from researchers at the Santa Fe Institute (Murray
Gell-Mann, Stuart Kauffman, John Holland) and elsewhere.
The objective of the proposed workshop is to bring together
researchers from these two broad groups, which we see as comple-
mentary. The aim is sharing new mutual contributions in the eld
of socio/linguistics and establish an in-depth dialogue about the
opportunities and limits of these two major avenues of approach to
the complexity of language variation, change, contact, and evolu-
tion. The goal is to nd out what linguists can tell computational
modellers and vice versa.
Afternoon
Room S11 Integrated Utility Services: Smart Systems Technology, Digital
Economy and Agent Based Modelling
Organizers: L. Varga, B. Ulanicki, E .Kremer
Satellite Website
Aging and fully used capacity in utility infrastructure systems,
which generate, transport, store and transform resources into util-
ity products, are creating a dilemma for investment. On the one
hand, the low carbon society is demanding alternatives to tradi-
tional non-renewable pathways but on the other hand, investment
in infrastructure demands certainty, scale, security, return on in-
vestment, and economic growth. What does the new infrastructure
look like? Does it need to become more local or regional? How do
current actors including utility companies, infrastructure providers,
network operators, the government, and so on, need to change to
put a focus on meeting utility service demand (rather than measur-
ing the quantity of utility product delivered) within the age of the
digital economy and technology capability?
We propose it is necessary to move beyond considering each util-
ity as a distinct silo providing a single utility product. Resources
which are used to create utility products are high integrated with
each other during extraction, generation, distribution and trans-
formation into services which meet the needs of consumers. How
will the new utility system co-evolve? What new actors are needed?
How do they disrupt existing systems?
Challenges include one: Technology innovation, in both prod-
ucts using non-renewable sources and renewable sources of energy,
is creating competition and lack of clarity as to which infrastruc-
ture investment to make; two, a siloed approach to regulation has
created a utility product centric industry in which supply of prod-
ucts (e.g. via water mains, roads, telecommunications networks)
is paramount, rather than demand for the services (e.g. washing,
mobility, exible working), acts to create lock-in to existing regimes;
three, the digital economy has created opportunities for small to
medium scale businesses to deliver (and reduce) local demand
for utility services at sufcient protability to generate economic
growth but risks and uncertainties are preventing innovation. These
issues have co-emerged at a time when the global population and
demand for utility services is expected to grow through increas-
ing numbers of appliances, increased mobility, etc. which require
satellites 207
resources. Meanwhile, in response to the predictions of climate
change models the Kyoto agreement imposes very strong reduc-
tions in carbon emissions for the nations of the world. In particular
the UK is signed up to reduce carbon emissions to 20
Globalisation has been the driving force of the digital economy
whereby we desire access to global products and this is achieved
largely through the availability of information over electronic net-
works and national infrastructures. Importantly, this has created
opportunities for small to medium scale businesses to operate in
areas where only multi-national companies could afford to oper-
ate in the past. Transacting for goods from other continents is now
commonplace and although risks may be higher through unaligned
national legislation and regulation for example, the rewards can be
high, particularly when value-added services are bundled into the
consumer costs. The pace and scale of UK investment needs a focus
on infrastructure which enables utility services to be delivered by
technologically savvy utility service companies who benet eco-
nomically through value-added services on a smaller operational
scale.
Dynamic, spatially distributed patterns of generation, transport,
storage and consumption are being studied using multi-agent mod-
els, with learning agents at different levels of the system. Smart
grids can use information to manage electricity demand and supply
dynamically, reduces the amount of extra capacity needed through
the capture of local renewable resources. Furthermore, these smart
systems are also needed to ensure a smooth operation of vast uc-
tuations created by renewable energy sources (wind, pv, etc.). Sys-
tems which use local rain water or grey water will have a direct
impact on mains water demand. The implementation of integrated
utility service systems could co-evolve to replace the centralised
structure of national utility systems evident today.
Recognition of integrated utility services co-evolving in the dig-
ital economy with infrastructure systems (at different scales, from
national, over regional to local) represents a great opportunity to
gain important insights into nature of complex systems.
Main questions:
The development of technologies in the digital age represents a
potential point of convergence to provide utility services. What
business models do these technologies enable? What does it
mean for traditional utility product distributors and utility com-
panies? What impact will technology have on the demand for
silo-based infrastructure?
How can we explicate the processes and constructs relevant for
leading edge business model innovation? What nascent markets
are out there (based on some conguration of business model
constructs)? How do new actors take up these processes to in-
uence changes to demand? What can our models tell us about
infrastructure systems for the future? What levels and dynam-
ics will have the greatest inuence? To what extent can a utility
system be self-organising?
What methods are needed to design behaviours and recognise
feedback in the consumption of utility services? What responses
do we anticipate to new business models? What feedback and
rebound effects will occur? How mature does a consumer need
to be to buy utility services? Which behaviours are sustainable
and why? What interactions between behaviours is expected?
What are the economics of utility service business models? How
can companies prot from reduced utility product generation?
Room S12 Young Researchers Network on Complex Systems (YRNCS)
Organizers: E. Panagakou, J. Kominek, S. De Nigris, D. Bullara, M.
Chinazzi
Satellite Website
YRNCS Satellite at ECCS13 is a Satellite organized by the Young
Researchers Network on Complex Systems (YRNCS) and its aim is
to bring together the community of young researchers who work
on Complex Systems. With this initiative we want to promote the
creation of a big community of young researchers and scientists
who will exchange ideas and consult each other, who can work
together and build the basis of future collaborations.
All Day
Room Port Vell Temporal networks in human dynamics
Organizers: A. Baronchelli, A. Barrat, R. Pastor-Satorras, N. Perra1, B.
Ribeiro, M. Starnini
Satellite Website
The study of the temporal characteristics of social dynamics,
and in particular of temporal networks, raises new challenges, both
theoretical and practical, with many applications to elds such as
social sciences or epidemiology.
New tools and frameworks are needed to characterize and model
temporal networks as well as the profound consequences that net-
works dynamics have on dynamical processes taking place upon
them.
The scope of the satellite meeting is to review the recent ad-
vances that have been witnessed in the eld of temporal networks
and human behavior, focusing in particular on the interplay be-
tween them.
satellites 209
The list of topics that we aim to cover at the conference is the
following:
Empirical measurements of temporal networks
Empirical measurements of human behavior
Dynamic interplay between social temporal networks and human
behavior
Representation of time-resolved datasets
Representation of time-resolved datasets
Analysis and characterization of temporal networks
Modeling of temporal networks
Modeling of human behavior
Dynamical processes on temporal networks
Room A1 Collective behaviors and networks
Organizers: G. L. Giampaglia, E. Ferrara, A. Flammini
Satellite Website
In recent years, analysis of data from social media has provided
a wealth of information about phenomena at societal scale, at least
to the extent to which interactions, intentions and beliefs measured
on-line reect their real-world counterparts. Data from Twitter,
Facebook, Google+, and Weblogs in general have been used to
predict elections, opinions and attitudes, movie revenues, and os-
cillations in the stock market, to cite few examples. Similar data
provided insights into the mechanisms driving the formation of
groups of interests, topical communities, and the evolution of social
networks. They also have been used to study polarization phe-
nomena in politics, diffusion of information and the dynamics of
collective attention.
In parallel, and even preceding the surge in interest towards
social media, the area of Agent-based Modeling (ABM) has grown
in scope, focus and capability to produce testable hypotheses, going
beyond the original goal of explaining macroscopic behaviors from
simple interaction rules among stylized agents.
Although the Complex Networks community, that studies so-
cial media, and the ABM community, that simulates society as
groups of interacting agents, have similar focus and a large over-
lap in interests, they are still separated from a profound chasm in
their methodological approach. Network scientists have strongly
leveraged empirical evidence, trying rst of all to reach a consis-
tent, concise description of the network of interactions underlying
the system of interest. ABM community, instead, has been char-
acterized by a more generative approach that postulates micro-
scopic/local interactions to explore how they reect in the macro-
scopic behavior of the social system.
Both communities could potentially greatly benet from com-
ing together and trying to reconcile their approaches in order to
synthesize agent-based models that are strongly informed by em-
pirical facts and able to produce predictions at multiple scales and
resolutions, for which empirical data are presently available.
Room A2 Computational Social Science: from Social Contagion to Collec-
tive Behaviour
Organizers: J. Borge-Holthoefer, G. Caldarelli, R. Conte, S. Gonzalez-
Bailon, M. Karsai, H. Margetts, W. Quattrociocchi, L. Rossi, A. Vespig-
nani, T.Yasseri
Satellite Website
Intense scientic debate is going around the denition of the
foundational concepts and appropriate methodological approaches
to deal with the understanding of social dynamics. These chal-
lenges are aiming to understand human behavior in its com-
plexity driven by intentional (and not necessarily rational) deci-
sions and inuenced by a multitude of factors. The functioning of
communication-based mechanisms requires individuals to inter-
act in order to acquire information to cope with uncertainty and
thus deeply rely on the accuracy and on the completeness of infor-
mation (if any). In fact, peoples perceptions, knowledge, beliefs
and opinions about the world and its evolution, get (in)formed
and modulated through the information they can access. Moreover
their response is not linear as individuals can react by accepting,
refusing, or elaborating (and changing) the received information.
Technology-mediated social collectives are taking an important
role in the design of social structures. Yet our understanding of the
complex mechanisms governing networks and collective behaviour
is still quite shallow. Fundamental concepts like authority, leader-
follower dynamics, conict or collaboration in online networks
are still not well dened and investigated but they are crucial
to illuminate the advantages and pitfalls of this form of collective
decision-making (which can cancel out individual mistakes, but
also make them spiral out of control).
The aim of this satellite is to address the question of ICT medi-
ated social phenomena emerging in multiple scales ranging from
the interactions of individuals to the emergence of self-organized
global movements. We would like to gather researchers from differ-
ent disciplines to form a forum to discuss ideas, research questions,
recent results, and future challenges in this emerging area of re-
search and public interest.
Particular attention will be devoted to the following topics:
Interdependent social contagion process
Peer production and mass collaboration
satellites 211
Temporally evolving networks and stream analytics
Cognitive aspects of belief formation and revision
Online communication and information diffusion
Viral propagation in online social network
Crowd-sourcing: herding behaviour vs. wisdom of crowds
E-democracy and online government-citizen interaction
Online socio-political mobilizations
Public attention and popularity
Room A3 Complex Systems Digital Campus: Science, Policy, and Applica-
tions
Organizers: P. Bourgine, C. Gershenson, L. Hernandez, J. Johnson , J.
Loua, Y. Merali, C. Taramasco
Satellite Website
This satellite meeting will bring together members of the CS-
DC, mainly (but not exclusively) from Europe, Latin America and
Africa, to review progress and assess challenges related to the
coordination of research and educational resources among more
than seventy universities and institutions worldwide. The sessions
would combine physical and remote presentations to include mem-
bers attending ECCS and those unable to do so (mainly from Africa
and Latin America).
Morning session: Policy and Sustainable Development
The engagement of complex systems researchers with real world
problems is an important part of the motivation for the develop-
ment of the Complex Systems Digital Campus (CS-DC). The degree
to which their work is utilised for the benet of society depends
to a large extent on their ability to engage with social and societal
actors. One of the purposes of this session is to focus on the provi-
sion that the community of complex systems researchers in general,
and the CS-DC in particular, needs to make for the engagement of
policy makers in realising the potential of complexity science for
sustainable development. By bringing together delegates from dif-
ferent domains of policy-making and researchers from the natural
and human sciences the session will enable a critical engagement
of academics and practitioners with issues related to ensuring the
adequate allocation of resources for complex systems research and
for transforming scientic discovery into realised impact for society.
The timing of this proposal is germane to current developments
in the policy realm: complexity science is becoming increasingly
prominent on the agenda for researchers in development studies as
evidenced by the recent Centre for Global Development workshop
in Washington on Complexity Theory and Development Policy.
Research on sub-Saharan Africa highlights the need for complex
systems concepts to inform policy for sustainable development
and emancipation: for example experience suggests that the kinds
of rigid systems controls favoured by international aid agencies
hamper national policy makers and can be detrimental to long-term
sustainability.
Afternoon session: Complex Systems Digital Campus: Progress
and Prospects
This session will present contributions to the CS-DC. These will
include advances on strategies and structures to reach the goals of
CS-DC, including repports on the different on-going Roadmaps and
their contribute for organizing e-departments and e-laboratories.
The educational ecosystem will also be discussed, namely how to
start setting up the computational structure necessary for mutual-
izing research and educational resources, creating interdisciplinary
synergies within the CS-DC network and, more broadly, the com-
plex systems science community.
The afternoon session will include contributions from CS-DC
members present in several institutions around the world, hope-
fully including participation from Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Brazil,
Argentina, Senegal, Tunisia, and other members of CS-DC. The oral
contributions and debate will use, if possible, the WTC videoconfer-
ence system for distant communication. In alternative the meeting
will use Skype. All expenses regarding special communication
setup will be negotiated with WTC and will be supported by the
satellite meeting organizers.
Room A4 Multiplex Networks 2013: Towards the undersanding of a com-
plex world
Organizers: B. Corominas-Murtra, S. Thurner
Satellite Website
The backbone of complex systems such as societies, ecosystems,
transportation or nancial markets is often realized by compo-
nents that are related through a variety of different interactions and
relations. The existence of multiple interaction types in complex
systems renders their description as a single network partial and
incomplete.
An understanding of the dynamics of such systems must incor-
porate the fact that their building blocks evolve as a consequence
of superimposed dynamical lays governed by more than a single
network. A collection or superposition of various networks connect-
ing a set of nodes is called a multiplex network. Undoubtedly, the
multiplex framework will play an important role in the future re-
search related to the emergence of complex patterns and dynamics
in non-trivially interconnected systems.
In this satellite workshop we want to bring together people ac-
tive in this new eld, involving a new generation of scientists in-
terested to discover new land in a eld of truly multidisciplinary
satellites 213
character. We specially encourage young scientists working on this
eld to present their results.
Room S2+3 Global Computing for our Complex Hyper-connected World
Organizers: A. Carbone, M. San Miguel, A. Sanchez
Satellite Website
This satellite meeting aims to foster interdisciplinary synergy
between the different communities involved in the understanding
of techno-socio-economic systems.
Room S4 Complex systems in prehistoric research
Organizers: S. Lozano, J. Fernandez
Satellite Website
Last years have witnessed a signicant increase in the number of
studies on Prehistory applying Complexity Sciences tools and ap-
proaches. Despite the broad disciplinary array of scientists involved
in this trend, including linguistics experts, archaeologists, evolu-
tionary biologists, mathematicians and physicists analysing human
past, there are very little interdisciplinary forums for discussion.
This satellite aims to ll this gap in the context of the ECCS13.
The goal, however, is not only to address the current needs for new
environments for discussing key issues and promoting new collab-
orations among specialists. From a longer term perspective, this
satellite should increase the visibility of an emerging community
within Complexity Science, and pave the way for archaeology and
related disciplines to actively contribute to future events of The
European Complex Systems Society.
The satellite will revolve around the current hot topics inside the
arena of the past studies:
Processes involved in Human Dispersals
Cultural transmission and Social learning
Gene-Culture coevolution and Human Niche Construction The-
ory
Human ecodynamics.
Room S5 Urban Systems Modeling
Organizers: D. Pumain, M. Batty
Satellite Website
GeoDiverCity and MECHANICITY are two projects founded by
an advanced ERC Grant. Both are about spatial modelling of ur-
ban systems with a specic interest in complex systems approaches
and are thus within the main area of researches that are of interest
for Complex Systems Society and Conference. The GeoDiverCity
programme led by Denise Pumain is analysing and modelling the
geographical diversity of cities and systems of cities with applica-
tions in Europe, USA, Russia, India, China and South Africa. ME-
CHANICITY stands for Morphology, Energy & Climate cHANge In
the CITY and is a ve year project lead by Mike Batty. It explores
ideas about how energy ows tie the components of cities and their
morphology together.
Topics covered by this meeting: Urban systems as complex sys-
tems, scaling methods, simulation models of urban systems, valida-
tion methods for multi-agents models, development of simulation
platforms, spatio-temporal modeling of social systems (relevant for
tracks 1-fundamentals of complex systems- 3 infrastructure, plan-
ning and environment- and 6 social systems- of ECCS2013 and
possibly 2 since of massive use of ICT in model design and testing
as well as urban data analysis).
Room S6+7 Big Data in Complex Systems: Infrastructure, Algorithms, Mod-
els and Applications
Organizers: J. Duch, S. Gomez, R. Guimera
Satellite Website
In the last ten years there has been an exponential increase of
the quantity and the quality of available information obtained from
many types of complex systems, ranging from the interactions of
millions of users in social networks to the information contained
in the genomic and proteomic databases. This has opened new
challenges to scientists on (i) how to store and handle this massive
amount of information, (ii) how to create new tools and adapt the
current ones to process, study and visualize the information and
(iii) what insight can we learn from systems that were previously
not understood due to the lack of information.
All these problems, coming from multiple disciples, are grouped
under the term Big Data, and their main characteristic is the need
to deal with massive amounts of information. As a consequence,
there are some common challenges that all data focused scientists
satellites 215
will have to confront, which might already be solved in other elds
under the Big Data classication.
The main goal of this satellite is to serve as a meeting point for
scientists working on all topics related with Big Data, with a special
interest with its relation with complex systems research. We want
to put in common the problems that scientists face when they work
with Big Data, and to share the experiences on how to overcome
them. The satellite will cover the following topics:
IT infrastructure for Big Data: research related with the design of
hardware and software systems to store and work with large
datasets.
Algorithms: research related with the design of scalable algo-
rithms capable of dealing with large amounts of data within a
reasonable time.
Models and Applications: research related with the generation
of massive datasets, the design of models and the use of the
previous tools to get insights about them.
Room S9 Modelling the complexity of the immune system
Organizers: A. Barra, E Agliari, A Annibale, AAC Coolen
Satellite Website
The adaptive immune system is a perfect example of what we
mean by biological complexity. It has been studied for decades, yet
our understanding of how its components orchestrate its function is
still limited, partly because in the past not all its components were
known and partly because we did not have the necessary quantita-
tive tools. Its medical relevance is clear in the context of infections,
of (auto)immune diseases and because of mounting evidence for
its role in cancer. Recent years have witnessed a surge of interest
in mathematical and computational models of the immune system.
This satellite meeting aims to bring together researchers from dif-
ferent disciplines, with complementary tools and perspectives, to
consolidate what is now understood about the functioning of the
immune system, exchange new experimental and theoretical re-
sults, initiate new collaborations, and to create a roadmap for the
future development of the eld.
Room S10 Citizen Sensor Networks
Organizers: J. Nin, D. Villatoro
Satellite Website
The meeting of researchers from complex system networks,
sensor networks, distributed intelligence and the social, economic
or organizational sciences is of crucial importance for the future
of citizen sensor networks. The multidisciplinary interactions for
this area of research are extensively recognized for its role in cross-
fertilization, and it has undoubtedly been an important source of
inspiration for the body of knowledge that has been produced in
the distributed articial intelligence. The Citizen Sensor Network
workshop was born with the goal of bringing together researchers
interested in distributed engineering, with researchers focused on
nding efcient solutions to problems where the data acquisition is
produced in a decentralized manner, representing complex social
systems.
satellites 217
Index of contributing participants
A. Reinoso, J., 39
Abad, E., 80
Abdul Razak, F., 166
Adami, C., 76
Aguiar, M., 104
Aguilar, D., 134
Aguilar, M., 150
Aguilar-Mogas, A., 122
Aguilar-Sanjuan, B., 125
Aguirre, J., 14
Akira, I., 131
Alarco, M., 170
Alarcon, T., 44, 103
Albantakis, L., 76
Alis, C., 37
Allansdottir, A., 28
Almendral Sanchez, J., 100
Almendral, J., 109
Alstott, J., 107
Altman, E., 135
Altmann, E., 168
Alvarez Hamelin, J., 101
Alvarez, R., 85
Alvarez-Lacalle, E., 45
Alvarez-Nodarse, R., 40, 157
Amaral, L., 163
Andersson, C., 52
Andrade, R., 34, 126
Angelopoulos, S., 133
Angulo-Brown, F., 59
Anteneodo, C., 58
Antonopoulos, C., 20, 53
Anl, M., 79
Apolloni, A., 121
Arakawa, S., 143
Araujo, T., 165
Arcaute, E., 155, 171
Arenas, A., 1315, 32, 64, 188
Argyrakis, P., 37
Arizmendi, F., 172
Arneodo, A., 123
Arrowsmith, D., 178
Arsiwalla, X., 113, 147
Askar, D., 140
Atay, F., 109
Audit, B., 123
Avalos Gaytan, V., 100
Axelsen, J., 91
Ay, N., 35
Bajardi, P., 97
Bajo, R., 153
Balague, N., 157
Banavar, J., 177, 190
Banisch, S., 165
Baptista, M., 23, 52, 53, 165
Barabasi, A., 85, 111
Barbosa, P., 61
Baronchelli, A., 154
Barons, M., 30
Barreiro, M., 64, 172
Barthelemy, M., 13
Bartkowski, W., 110
Basar, T., 135
Bascompte, J., 11, 121
Basson, L., 24
Bastas, N., 37
Batta, E., 25
Batty, M., 155, 171
Baugh, D., 129
Beiro, M., 101
Belmonte, A., 78
Ben Avraham, D., 37
Benedettini, S., 106
Benito, R., 174
Bertschinger, N., 35
Bettinardi, R., 43
Bianco Martinez, E., 20
Bianco-Martinez, E., 53
Bianconi, G., 13, 155
Biggs, R., 143
Biondo, A., 174
Bleda, M., 136
Blondel, V., 97, 111
Boccaletti, S., 100, 109
Bogdanov, K., 64
Bogua, M., 11, 101
Bokharaie, V., 132
Bonte, B., 171
Borge, J., 85
Borge-Holthoefer, J., 188
Borghesi, C., 42
Borgnat, P., 66, 67
Borondo, J., 174
Borovikov, I., 58
Bosch, M., 70
Boton-Fernandez, M., 135
Boulos, R., 123
Boulougouris, G., 34
Bourgine, P., 37, 52
Bown, J., 125
Brasselet, R., 140
Bratsun, D., 60
Broens, M., 146
Brown, D., 180
Brown, G., 158
Brunat, J., 159
Bujorianu, M., 35
Buldu, J., 14, 153
Buldyrev, S., 78
Bullmore, E., 107
Burgess, S., 129
Buzna, L., 178
C. Guisoni, N., 103
Cabrales, A., 176
Calovi, D., 167
Calvo-Hernandez, A., 59
Camacho, J., 81
Candussio, F., 16
Caparrros, F., 42
Capitan, J., 91
Cardoso, M., 70
Carmi, S., 37
Carpantier, J., 126
Carvalho, R., 178
Casademunt, J., 45
Casanovas, J., 141
Casares, H., 169
Casas, G., 51
Caseiro, N., 92
Catone, M., 187
Cattuto, C., 46
Cavallaro, M., 63
Cebrian, M., 89, 102, 178
Cela-Espin, J., 141
Cellai, D., 15
Chabert, S., 127
Chain, W., 135
Chalkidis, A., 190
Chate, H., 167
Chavalarias, D., 25
Chinazzi, M., 117
Chmiel, A., 189
Choi, J., 185
Chopard, B., 120
Choudhury, M., 75
Christakis, N., 89
Christensen, K., 130
Christiansen, M., 124
Chua, L., 21
Cimini, G., 156
Cislo, J., 182
Cointet, J., 37, 89, 186
Colet, P., 156
Colin, J., 149
Colizza, V., 97, 105, 121
Collet, P., 37
Colman, E., 73
Colombo, E., 58
Colomer, P., 101
Comendant, C., 134
Cordoba Rodriguez, O., 48
Cordonnier, T., 171
Corominas-Murtra, B., 100, 169
Corral, A., 113, 168, 173
Cortes, J., 139
Cozzo, E., 15
Crea, R., 72
Cristelli, M., 17, 72
Cuesta, J., 40, 86, 157
Curado, E., 34, 50, 51
Curto-Risso, P., 59
DAgostino, G., 108
DOdorico, P., 24
Da Silva Baptista, M., 20
Daly, M., 185
Danac, B., 79
David-Rus, D., 134
Davids, K., 31
Davidsen, J., 22
De Domenico, M., 14, 32
De Los Rios, P., 107
de Navascues, J., 81
De Nigris, S., 110
De Pellegrini, F., 135
De Picoli Jr, S., 54
De Souza, R., 68
De Toni, A., 16
De Zan, G., 16
Deco, G., 43, 83
Decraene, J., 138
Decuyper, A., 97
Deffuant, G., 60, 97
Del Castillo-Mussot, M., 48
Delic, K., 52
Deluca, A., 113, 173
Delvenne, J., 49, 126
Demongeot, J., 127
Depra, P., 61
Deville, P., 85, 111
Deza, J., 64
Di Clemente, R., 78
Di, P., 127
Diaz, A., 158
Diaz-Guilera, A., 32, 108
Dittrich, P., 93
Dittrich, R., 80
Dominguez-Sal, D., 159
Donato, I., 61
Dos Santos Mendes, R., 54, 70
Driscoll, M., 134
Druckman, A., 24
Duarte, C., 62
Duloquin, L., 142
Durie, R., 125
Dussutour, A., 50
Edlund, E., 38, 130
Eger, S., 55
Eguiluz, V., 87
Ek, C., 156
Eom, Y., 36
Eriksson, A., 79
Erzan, A., 79, 81
Escalona, M., 37
Eskridge, B., 77, 184
Etsuo, G., 131
Expert, P., 130
Fabreges, D., 142
Fagard, B., 169
Fagiolo, G., 17, 117
Farkas, W., 71
Farmer, C., 124
Fellermann, H., 105
Fennell, P., 33
Ferguson, P., 171
Fernandes, P., 68
Fernandez Galan, R., 154
Fernandez, N., 144
Fernandez-Rosales, I., 134
Ferraro, F., 150
Fierro, A., 137
Filisetti, A., 106
Fischer, J., 93
Flammini, A., 107
Flandrin, P., 67
Flint, S., 153
Floretta, L., 107
Floria, M., 137
Fonseca, A., 139
Font-Clos, F., 168, 191
Formosa-Jordan, P., 104
Fortunato, S., 19
Fortuny Andreu, J., 169
Fourquet, D., 186
Fowler, J., 89
Frenken, K., 188
Fronczak, A., 35, 174
Fronczak, P., 174
Fuchs, B., 175
Fukuda, S., 45
Fusco, G., 127
Gabalda, M., 161
Gabrielli, L., 95
Gadjiev, B., 73
Galeano, J., 191
Galvao, V., 126
Gaminha, B., 143
Gandica, Y., 160
Ganguly, N., 75
Garas, A., 100
Garcia Dominguez, L., 154
Garcia-Algarra, J., 191
Garcia-Herranz, M., 89
Garcia-Ojalvo, J., 80, 81, 161
Gargiulo, F., 41, 60
Garlaschelli, D., 17, 28, 116
Gauvin, L., 176
Georgiev, G., 185
Gerlach, M., 168
Gershenson, C., 144
Giannotti, F., 131
Gilarranz, L., 121
Ginoux, J., 21
Girardi, M., 103
Gkiolmas, A., 190
Glaria, A., 127
Gleeson, J., 15, 33
Goi Cortes, J., 100
Goi, J., 139
Goh, K., 185
Goles, E., 71
Gombos, E., 185
Gomez Portillo, I., 69
Gomez, S., 13, 14, 32, 64
Gonalves, B., 87
Gonzalez, M., 97
Goska, A., 22
Grabowicz, P., 87
Grabowski, A., 173
Gracia-Lazaro, C., 42, 86
Granell, C., 13, 64
index of contributing participants 221
Grebogi, C., 23, 165
Grifths, F., 30, 125
Grilli, J., 177
Grubic, T., 67
Gu, C., 22
Guell, O., 123
Guevara, R., 153
Guimaraes, R., 68
Guimera, R., 30, 122
Guisoni, N., 81
Gutierrez-Roig, M., 42, 141
Guzman-Vargas, L., 59, 134
Haerter, J., 112
Halu, A., 155
Hamacher, K., 90
Hamon, R., 67
Hanel, R., 32
Hartman, D., 147
Hasegawa, T., 192
Hatna, E., 171
Hattori, M., 45
Havlin, S., 37
Haw, D., 129
Hazan, A., 176
Heinrich, T., 91
Helbing, D., 174, 178
Herault, R., 31
Hernandez, L., 42
Hevenstone, D., 26
Hidalgo, J., 177
Hidalgo, M., 127
Hintze, A., 76
Hlinka, J., 147
Hogan, J., 129
Holyst, J., 73, 166, 189
House, T., 112, 140
Hristea, M., 74
Hristovski, R., 157
Hu, Z., 48
Huang, Z., 158
Huet, S., 60
Hung, T., 94, 127
Hurtado, R., 171
Ibaes, M., 104
Ibaez, E., 103
Iori, G., 74, 181
Iriondo, J., 191
Ishii, A., 16
Itami Da Silva, A., 54
Iyetomi, H., 189
Izquierdo, L., 188
Jagielska, M., 110
Jakubek, M., 22, 25
Jamtveit, B., 112
Jann, B., 26
Jaramillo, P., 171
Jensen, H., 166
Jensen, P., 24, 123
Jimenez-Romero, C., 16
Jirsa, V., 149
Johnson, J., 16, 37, 107, 148
Jordan, B., 184
Jorg, T., 183
Jose Antonio, F., 54
Jost, J., 35
Journeau, P., 185
Jr., S., 61
Juarez Garduno, R., 56
Jurado, M., 82
Just, W., 178
Kacprzyk, M., 110
Kaltenbrunner, A., 76
Kammer, J., 88
Kandiah, V., 75
Kane, D., 39
Kaplan-Marcusan, A., 141
Karalus, S., 177
Karamanos, K., 190
Karpiarz, M., 174
Kaski, K., 19
Kaszowska, J., 69, 70
Katzenbeisser, S., 90
Kawamoto, H., 177
Kenzi, E., 68
Khor, S., 29
Kim, J., 185
Kleidon, A., 93
Klimek, P., 181
Kobayashi, G., 146
Koguchi, H., 16
Kohlhase, M., 37
Kon Kam King, G., 97
Koponen, I., 72
Kosi nski, R., 173
Kouvaris, N., 92, 148
Kowalska-Pyzalska, A., 27
Krawczyk, M., 49
Krings, G., 106, 126
Krug, J., 177
Krumme, C., 178
Kyrtsou, C., 133
Kos, M., 22, 25
Lafuerza, L., 187
Lane, D., 106
Laniado, D., 76
Lara, R., 102
Lara-Rosano, F., 56
Larriba-Pey, J., 159
Latora, V., 13, 63
Le Fur, J., 75
Le, H., 147
Lee, G., 94, 127
Lee, K., 185
Lee, S., 185
Legara, E., 94, 127
Lenhardt, W., 37
Lenormand, M., 60
Leoncini, X., 110
Lewandowsky, S., 158
Leyva, I., 109
Liao, H., 156
Liccardo, A., 137
Liebovitch, L., 134
Liechti, J., 107
Lim, M., 37
Lindgren, O., 38, 130
Lizcano, D., 144
Llibre, J., 21
Llorente, A., 178
Loepfe, L., 176
Lohmann, S., 111
Lopes, R., 132
Lopez Montolio, S., 159
Lopez, U., 167
Losada, J., 174
Lotero, L., 171
Lou, J., 139, 143
Loua, J., 37
Louf, R., 42
Lu, W., 55
Lubashevsky, I., 66, 182
M.S. Rodrigues, D., 36
Maciejowska, K., 27
MacKay, R., 35, 145
Maestu, F., 153
Maletic, S., 183
Malliaris, A., 133
Mancha, T., 69, 70
Manchanda, K., 63
Maniadakis, D., 76
Manica, A., 79
Manrubia, S., 91
Maragakis, M., 37
Marba, N., 62
Marguta, R., 192
Marinazzo, D., 139
Maritan, A., 24, 177, 190
Marti, A., 172
Martin Hernandez, J., 108
Martinez, J., 153
Martinez-Arias, A., 81
Martinez-Corral, R., 81
Mascolo, C., 46
Masoller, C., 39, 62, 64
Massucci, F., 30, 191
Mastrandrea, R., 17
Masucci, P., 155, 171
Mateos, J., 186
Mathias, J., 97, 171
Mathiesen, J., 112
Matias, M., 156
Matos, J., 120, 132
Mazo, J., 137
McMullin, B., 129, 192
Medina, A., 59
Medo, M., 156
Mehlig, B., 79
Meloni, S., 41, 105
Menasalvas, E., 43
Mendes, R., 61, 68
Mendez, V., 69
Merali, Y., 132, 133
Mikropoulou, C., 133
Min, B., 185
Mira, J., 72, 169
Miranda, J., 126
Miritello, G., 102
Mizuno, T., 65, 189
Mobilia, M., 54
Moloney, N., 173
Mondaini, F., 50
Mondragon, R., 155
Montaola-Sales, C., 141
Montalva, M., 71
Monteagudo, H., 169
Montemayor Aldrete, J., 48
Monterola, C., 94, 127
Montllor-Serrats, J., 70
Mora, C., 121
Morales, A., 174
Moreno, 163
Moreno, D., 127
Moreno, Y., 15, 33, 41, 42, 85, 86, 105,
137, 188
Moriam, M., 160
Moriconi, L., 50
Moro, E., 89, 102, 178
Motta, S., 63
Moura Jr., N., 90
Moussaid, M., 88
Muoz, M., 177
Mukai, H., 68
Murata, M., 143
Nakata, Y., 143
Nakechbandi, M., 149
Navas, A., 109
Necula, C., 71
Nef, P., 134
Neth, H., 88
Ngo, S., 167
Nichkawde, C., 22
Nicolis, S., 50
Nicosia, V., 13, 63
Nieto, J., 72
Nilsson Jacobi, M., 38, 130
Nirei, M., 65
Nobre, F., 34, 50, 51
Nowak, A., 110
Nyczka, P., 182
OBrien, O., 130
OSullivan, K., 145
Ober, M., 90
Ochab, J., 93
Ohnishi, T., 189
Ohno, H., 45
Olbrich, E., 35
Oliveira, O., 160
Omodei, E., 89, 169
Onggo, B., 141
Orlandi, J., 45
Orth, D., 31
Ory nczak, G., 22, 25
Otero-Espinar, M., 72
Ottaviano, S., 135
Ould Cheikh, A., 149
Pacheco, J., 91, 167
Palau-Ortin, D., 104
Palhares Viana, M., 130
Palla, G., 79, 80
Paltoglou, G., 189
Palus, M., 147
Pammolli, F., 19
Pan, R., 19
Panagakou, E., 34
Panzarasa, P., 155
Papaconstantinou, M., 190
Papo, D., 14
Pappalardo, F., 63
Pappalardo, L., 131
Parata, M., 169
Parisi, A., 192
Parlitz, U., 165
Parsaee, G., 132
Parsons, N., 30
Pastor, J., 153, 191
Pastor-Satorras, R., 88, 154
Pedreschi, D., 131
Pegoraro, S., 117
Pellicoro, M., 139
Penn, A., 24
Penner, O., 19
Pentland, A., 178
Perello, J., 42, 141
Perez Castillo, I., 191
Perez Guzman, G., 152
Perez Velazquez, J., 153, 154
Perez-Vicente, C., 32
Perrone, S., 38
Pessot, E., 16
Petersen, A., 19
Peterson, G., 143
Petri, G., 61
Peyrieras, N., 142
Ptzner, R., 100
Picciolo, F., 28
Piedrahita, P., 137, 188
Pietronero, L., 17, 72
Pigolotti, S., 42
Pinheiro, F., 91, 167
Pipergias Analytis, P., 88
Plenz, D., 107
Pluchino, A., 21, 174
Poibeau, T., 89
Poledna, S., 119
Poletto, C., 105, 121
Pollner, P., 79, 80
Portelli, P., 37
Porter, J., 181
Prat, A., 159
Prieto, F., 135
Prignano, L., 108
Progulova, T., 136
Provata, A., 34
Przybyla, P., 27
Pueyo, S., 115
Puig, P., 113
Quilici Gonzalez, J., 146
Quilici Gonzalez, M., 146
Quintero, N., 40, 157
Quiroga-Carapia, A., 56
Rabino, G., 98
Rachid, E., 135
Rajkovic, M., 183
Ramasco, J., 41, 87, 191
Ramaswamy, R., 63
Ramon, J., 134
Randon-Furling, J., 176
Rapisarda, A., 21, 174
Rasmussen, S., 105
Ratti, C., 23
Rauh, J., 35
Razakanirina, R., 120
Reigada, R., 82
Requejo, R., 81
Ribeiro, H., 68, 70
Ribeiro, M., 50, 90
Riccaboni, M., 19
Rinaldo, A., 24
Rinzivillo, S., 95, 131
Robardet, C., 67
Roberts, G., 112
index of contributing participants 223
Robledo, A., 158
Rocha Gordo, J., 143
Rodgers, G., 73
Rodriguez-Caso, C., 100
Roli, A., 106
Ronzano, F., 95
Rosenblum, M., 153
Roszczynska-Kurasinska, M., 110
Roth, C., 186
Rouge, C., 97
Roznovat, I., 29
Rubido, N., 23
Rubinger, R., 165
Rucklidge, A., 54
Rudan, S., 146
Ruiz-Mejias, M., 43
Ruskin, H., 29
Ruz, G., 71
Rychwalska, A., 110
S. Loscar, E., 103
Saa, A., 61
Sadovsky, M., 30, 58, 60
Sagarra, O., 32, 108
Sagues, F., 123
Saha Roy, R., 75
Sales-Pardo, M., 30, 122
Salgado, J., 120
Samson, K., 110
Sanchez, A., 42, 86, 176
Sanchez-Taltavull, D., 44
Sanchez-Vives, M., 43
Sancho, J., 104
Santos, E., 61
Santos, F., 91, 167
Santos, J., 69, 70
Sanz, J., 33
Sartorelli, J., 165
Schaeffer, S., 100
Schiller, F., 24
Schlapfer, M., 23
Schlupp, I., 77, 184
Schneider, C., 97
Scholtes, I., 21, 100, 187
Schwarz, T., 160
Schweitzer, F., 100
Scius-Bertrand, A., 37
Scolamiero, M., 61
Sedia-Nadal, I., 109
Seifert, L., 31
Senashova, M., 60
Seoane, L., 72, 169
Serra, R., 106
Serrano, M., 82, 101, 123
Shepelyansky, D., 36, 75
Shimizu, C., 189
Shukla, P., 59
Sienkiewicz, J., 166, 189
Simini, F., 131, 190
Sinatra, R., 85
Sintes, T., 62
Siska, V., 79
Siudem, G., 35, 73
Skordoulis, C., 190
Slowinski, P., 27
Smoreda, Z., 97
Sole, A., 32
Sole, R., 100, 169
Sole-Ribalta, A., 14
Song, C., 85, 111
Soriano, J., 45, 64
Sousa, P., 43
Souza, A., 34, 51
Spataru, C., 114
Spiegler, A., 149
Sprague, D., 112
Squartini, T., 17, 116
Srivastava, S., 52
St-Yves, G., 22
Stamboglis, N., 74
Stanley, H., 19
Starnini, M., 88, 154
Stavrou, D., 190
Stollenwerk, N., 104, 150
Stramaglia, S., 139
Strano, E., 130
Suchecki, K., 166
Suda, W., 45
Suleiman Isah, S., 48
Sumpter, D., 50
Surjan, G., 80
Suszczy nski, K., 27
Sutcliffe, A., 125
Suweis, S., 24, 177, 190
Szczesny, B., 54
Szell, M., 23
Sznajd-Weron, K., 27, 182
Szwabinski, J., 68
Tacchella, A., 17, 72
Takayasu, H., 45, 146, 177, 178
Takayasu, L., 45
Takayasu, M., 45, 114, 130, 146, 177,
178
Takaysu, H., 114
Tamura, K., 177, 178
Tanaka, S., 105
Taramasco, C., 37, 127
Tarrazon, M., 70
Teixeira de Melo, A., 170
Teller, S., 45, 64
ten Thij, M., 76
Tennant Jackson, J., 125
Tessone, C., 100
Thelwall, M., 189
Theraulaz, G., 167
Thorogood, M., 30
Thulasiraman, K., 48
Thurner, S., 32, 119, 175, 181, 189
Tibely, G., 79
Tijus, C., 37
Tintera, J., 147
Tirabassi, G., 62
Tizzoni, M., 97
Tolstonozhenko, O., 64
Tononi, G., 76
Toomey, J., 39
Toral, R., 187
Tornberg, A., 52
Tornberg, P., 52
Torrents, J., 150
Tort, N., 43
Toth, B., 77, 80
Towlson, E., 75
Traag, V., 106
Travasso, R., 160
Trefois, M., 49
Tremblay, N., 66
Trigo, P., 92
Tsallis, C., 21
Tuncer Ozdemir, A., 81
Uchiyama, K., 16
Vaccarino, F., 61
Valle, E., 77
Valori, L., 28
Van Dooren, P., 106
Van Holt, T., 148
van Lelyveld, I., 116
Varga, L., 67
Varga, S., 67
Vargas-Ruiz, C., 171
Varoutas, D., 76
Vasarhelyi, O., 77
Vasconcelos, V., 91, 167
Vega Rodriguez, M., 135
Vejdemo, S., 156
Vejdemo-Johansson, M., 156
Vejmelka, M., 147
Verma, P., 48
Verschure, P., 113, 147
Vertes, P., 75, 107
Vespignani, A., 105
Viana Jr, E., 165
Vicsek, T., 79
Vigna, S., 36
Villani, M., 106
Villate, C., 144
Villatoro, D., 95
Villoslada, P., 80
Vinod, A., 185
Volkovich, Y., 76
Voorhees, B., 55
Wang, D., 85, 111
Wang, J., 155, 171
Watanabe, T., 65, 189
Waterson, M., 145
Wawrzyniak, K., 22, 25
Webborn, E., 145
Weron, K., 27
Weron, R., 27
Willis, A., 16
Wineld, A., 125
Wodlei, F., 74
Woodward, A., 24
Xia, C., 41
Xu, S., 55
Yadav, A., 63
Yamada, K., 114
Yasuko, K., 131
Yi, X., 55
Yura, Y., 146
Zabzina, N., 50
Zachariou, N., 130
Zakharov, A., 60
Zaltz Austwick, M., 130
Zamora-Lpez, G., 159
Zamora-Munt, J., 39, 156
Zanin, M., 43, 153
Zapperi, S., 84
Zepeda, H., 127
Zeppini, P., 188
Zgonnikov, A., 66, 182
Zhou, J., 15
Zucca, R., 147

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ECCS 1 3

BOOK OF ABST RACT S

, with = 0.390 and stan-

C) the system has to be stirred for only half of the

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