Climate change negotiation:

the Role of Indonesia and other emerging economics

Fitrian Ardiansyah
Crawford School of Public Policy
The Australian National University
fitrian.ardiansyah@anu.edu.au
Images: http://www.iisd.ca
Disclaimer
The views expressed are entirely of the presenter
and not that of the Government of the Republic of
Indonesia or any other developing countries
governments.
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Climate change &
emerging economies
Emerging
economies most
vulnerable to
climate change
Disasters Data in
Indonesia (1815-
2013): climate
related disasters
significant

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Images: http://sites.miis.edu (maplecroft); BNPB (2013)
GHG emissions &
emerging economies
Emerging
economies
nearing half
of GHG
emissions
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Images: Ardiansyah et al. (2013) from IEA, the World
Bank and CDIAC data
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K
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Year
CO
2
emissions for groups of countries (1960-2009)
East Asia Pacific
(developing only)
North America
Low & Middle Income
High Income (OECD)
0
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2000000
3000000
4000000
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E
q
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Year
Trend in energy use for groups of countries (1971-2010)
High income: OECD Low income
Lower middle income Middle income
North America
Reflecting on energy
demand & economic growth
Development challenges &
emerging economies
GDP increasing but still
far below the rich
countries
Dependent much on
nature-based economies
(e.g. forest, plantation,
coal, gas, etc.)

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Images: Ardiansyah et al. (2013) from IEA, the World
Bank and CDIAC data; GRID-Arendal UNEP (2009)
http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/changing-
global-forest-cover_b110
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U
S
$
Year
GDP trend for groups of countries (1971-2010)
High income: OECD
Low income
Lower middle income
Middle income
North America
Global forest cover change
Climate change negotiation &
emerging economies
Crucial helping safeguard
countries from climate change
threats
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Images: Francis Dejon/IISD (theguardian.com);
www.wri.org
Seizing economic opportunity that
global negotiations/ forums present
helping countries to decouple
their economies from GHG emissions

COP-19 results (i)
Further advancing the
Durban Platform
Swapping the word
commitments for
contributions on emission
cut plan
China, India & G77 on ECBDR
& RC (equitable & common
but differentiated
responsibilities & respective
capabilities)
EU, US pushing for
commitment from
developing countries
Japan backtracking from its
commitment



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The good apples of
COP-19?
Images: environment.yale.edu; iisd.ca; forestclimatechange.org
COP-19 results (ii)
Green Climate Fund (GCF)
& Long-Term Finance (LTF)
Structure & function of GCF
finalised but money available
only after 2020 (pledged
$100bn)
Realisation for LTF 2014-2020 is
not yet quantifiable
Adaptation Fund: a pledge
$104m to fuel stalled projects
Questions of scale, time,
disbursement?


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Images: tcktcktck.org; forestclimatechange.org

WTF? Where is The Finance?
COP-19 results (iii)
The Warsaw Framework for
REDD+
Completing the rule book for REDD+
full implementation of REDD+
US$280m pledge for REDD+ in 49
partner countries
GCF: key institution for channelling
REDD+ finance



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Images:
forestclimatechange.org
COP-19 results (iv)
The Warsaw International
Mechanism for Loss & Damage
One of the most crucial negotiations
Loss & damage would be under the
Adaptation Fund
G77 & China: climate change impacts
are growingly difficult or impossible
to adapt to

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Images:
forestclimatechange.org;
takvera.blogspot.com.au;
BBC/reuters
The future
Toward 2015 & beyond
Big emerging economies to further play a significant role in ensuring the
success of climate change negotiation key negotiation aspects: developed
countries emissions cut commitment & developing countries contributions
Climate financing: availability & disbursement sign for seriousness
Emerging economies to continue efforts in mitigation & adaptation: e.g.
Carbon pricing pilot; Renewable energy investment; REDD+ with the support
of strong law enforcement and adequate incentives can lead to limiting
deforestation, e.g. the case in Brazil and to some extent in Indonesia

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Images:
forestclimatechange.org;
Expectation: by 2015,
an agreed instrument,
applicable to all
countries
Thank you
Terima kasih

Fitrian Ardiansyah, fitrian.ardiansyah@anu.edu.au
http://fitrianardiansyah.com
@EcoFitrian


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