POLITICO

Welcome to energy and the midterms The war

on coal in West Virginia Koch vs. Steyer
spending plans keep ramping up
By ALEX GUILLN | 06/27/14 10:15 AM EDT
As a campaign influencer, youre getting this monthly newsletter out of POLITICOs in-depth series All Policy is
Local: Energy, providing deeper coverage of the intersection of pressing policy issues and the most-contested
midterms. For more from this special reporting series, go to http://politi.co/1iH8vFK (http://politi.co/1iH8vFK) .
WELCOME TO ENERGY AND THE MIDTERMS. This newsletter is a monthly feature of the POLITICO series All
Policy is Local: Energy, examining how energy policy issues are affecting the 2014 midterm elections. We
welcome your feedback, questions and tips, so please contact me at aguillen@politico.com
(mailto:aguillen@politico.com) and follow me on Twitter at @alexcguillen (http://www.twitter.com/alexcguillen) .
FIELD REPORT THE WAR ON COAL IN WEST VIRGINIA: Erica Martinson reports from Huntington: Deep in
coal country, the candidates waging one of the nations most closely watched House races are competing to show
who is the most outraged at President Barack Obamas environmental policies. Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall has
denounced Obamas EPA as callous, attacked its biggest greenhouse gas rule as disastrous and filed legislation
to block the heart of the presidents climate agenda. Republican challenger Evan Jenkins agrees that EPAs
policies are devastating to West Virginians but says the 19-term incumbent championed Obamas election in
2008 and appears helpless to stop the White House now.
The state where an imprisoned felon ran a close second to Obama in the 2012 primary was always going to
provide challenging turf for Democrats this November, but EPA raised the stakes this month by proposing a
greenhouse gas rule that could sharply reduce the nations reliance on coal. Perhaps more than any other
candidate on the ballot, Rahall faces a test: Can red-state Democrats separate themselves from a president so
deeply unpopular back home? The story: http://politico.pro/1qboWUi
(https://www.politicopro.com/story/energy/?id=35579)
KOCH VS. STEYER SPENDING PLANS KEEP RAMPING UP: Were getting a better idea of how much energy-
related spending is going to pour into this falls midterms and the answer boils down to: a lot. Liberal billionaire
Tom Steyer has pledged to drop $100 million into four Senate races and three gubernatorial elections, at least half
of which will be his own money. And the Kochs network aims to spend at least $290 million. Thats not to mention
plans by the liberal Democracy Alliance to spend $374 million during the cycle, or the millions of dollars in projected
spending by industry-connected organizations and green groups like the League of Conservation Voters. In short:
If you live in a media market in contested states like Colorado, Michigan and Iowa prepare for a tsunami wave
of ads and mailers.
QUESTIONS FOR THE NEXT MONTH: Do summer highs mean more political discussions about climate change?
Text Size
Are Louisiana voters impressed that Mary Landrieu got a committee vote on Keystone XL, even if it never gets
through the Senate floor? Do Colorado voters think Mark Udall or Cory Gardner is better on LNG exports? Can
Dan Sullivan get away with ignoring his GOP opponents and focusing instead on Mark Begich? Does climate
change continue to be a major issue in the Michigan Senate race? Will an independent candidate with ties to major
environmental legislation be a real contender in Maines gubernatorial race?
** Novembers election gives voters a powerful choice on energy. Smart energy policies can grow our economy,
create jobs and establish America as a global energy leader. America is now the worlds number-one natural gas
producer and is projected to become number one in oil by 2015. Get involved at http://ChooseEnergy.org
(http://chooseenergy.org) **
TOP SENATE RACES
Louisiana: An increasingly important issue in this race is just how much power Mary Landrieu has atop the Energy
and Natural Resources Committee. Her campaign has made a point of bragging about the gavel and its importance
to the oil- and gas-heavy state, including in a recent video in which a New Orleans native called Landrieus
chairwomanship a major achievement. But Republican candidate Bill Cassidy scoffs that Landrieu can make
headway on issues like Keystone because of opposition from Democratic leaders and the White House a point
they underscored after a GOP attempt to push a pro-Keystone bill through unanimous consent went down in
flames on the Senate floor Tuesday. The vote was a no-lose prospect for Republicans, who at least got to blunt
any bragging rights Landrieu might have gained by pushing the bill through her committee earlier this month.
Poll questions wed like to see in the Bayou State: How important is Mary Landrieus committee leadership to
Louisiana? Would Cassidy, as a freshman Republican, have more impact in a GOP-controlled Senate than
Landrieu does now? Which candidate do you trust more on energy issues?
Colorado: Energy has lately taken a backseat to immigration and personhood issues in the race between
Democrat Mark Udall and GOP challenger Cory Gardner, but dont expect it to stay on the back burner long and
for the moment, Gardner has the upper hand. On Wednesday, the House passed a Gardner-sponsored bill to
speed up exports of liquefied natural gas, while Udalls Senate version still has no clear path to the floor:
http://politico.pro/1qbmzRp (http://politico.pro/1qbmzRp) . Meanwhile, Udall was on the losing end of a vote last
week in which the Senate energy committee moved to approve Keystone. Udalls vote was consistent with his past
positions he hasnt taken a stance on the pipeline itself but opposes Congress meddling in the administrations
review of the pipeline. But it gives Gardner a talking point, and his vote drew a disappointing rating from the
Denver Post: http://bit.ly/1nQY0Wv (http://bit.ly/1nQY0Wv) .
Alaska: The Republican primary is still months away, but Dan Sullivan, the tentative GOP front-runner and former
state natural resources commissioner and attorney general, has already turned his biggest guns on Democratic
incumbent Mark Begich. Recent polling shows Sullivan with a slight but consistent lead over Lt. Gov. Mead
Treadwell, and he enjoys a sizable cash advantage. Polls for now show Begich slightly leading Sullivan.
Meanwhile, Begich and Sullivan have been shooting back and forth about which candidate has gotten
backing from the Koch brothers. A Begich-affiliated PAC received money from Koch PAC four years ago, but the
Koch-connected Americans for Prosperity has spent serious dough attacking Begich. The New York Times asked
Sullivan if he wants support from Koch-backed groups like AFP; Sullivan paused for 25 seconds and then said he
hoped to bring all voters together. (ICYMI: http://nyti.ms/1nkjFVc (http://nyti.ms/1nkjFVc) ).
Iowa: Polls show Republican nominee Joni Ernst, who drew nationwide attention with her ad about castrating pigs,
essentially neck-and-neck with Democrat Bruce Braley. A liberal group has gone after Ernst for opposing all energy
subsidies, particularly the renewable fuel standard, which is popular in corn-fed Iowa. (Ernst has said she will
support the RFS until all subsidies are gone.) Meanwhile, Americans for Prosperity has taken aim at Braley for
opposing Keystone after supporting it before. Braley said he changed his position over concerns the pipeline
would not provide enough energy security for the U.S. and would not send oil to the domestic market.
West Virginia: Coal and EPAs new climate rules continue to dominate the energy debate between Republican
Shelley Moore Capito and Democrat Natalie Tennant, even though both lobbed heavy criticism at the proposed
power plant regulation that the Obama administration released June 2. The next day, Tennant issued an energy
plan that calls for blocking EPAs regulations, investing in advanced coal technologies like carbon capture, passing
new mine safety legislation and protecting coal miners benefits and pensions in bankruptcy proceedings. She also
argued that the state could become a manufacturing center for solar panels and wind turbines. Polling continues to
show Capito with a healthy lead.
Montana: Polls show Republican Steve Daines outpacing Democrat John Walsh, including a recent poll conducted
for the National Mining Association that gave Daines a 16-point lead. That poll also found that most Montanans
oppose EPAs proposed rule for existing power plants. Daines says the jury is still out on whether climate change
is driven by human activity, while Walsh has warned that inaction on climate change threatens major industries like
agriculture and recreation.
New Hampshire: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Democratic-aligned PACs made noise last month over accusations
that Republican Scott Brown had persuaded Senate Republicans to prevent a vote on Shaheens big energy
efficiency bill. (Browns campaign said he spoke with several lawmakers but denied that he lobbied against the
bill.) More recently, Brown criticized Shaheen over the administrations new climate rule.
Kentucky: In a race that in some ways mirrors the Louisiana election, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes is
promising to stand up to Democratic leaders and President Barack Obama on coal issues. But she took fire from
Republican opponent Mitch McConnell and other critics after POLITICO reported that she did not speak to Senate
Majority Leader Harry Reid about coal during a fundraiser, despite saying she had. (ICYMI:
http://politico.pro/SUZMuh (http://politico.pro/SUZMuh) ) More than half a million dollars worth of attack ads
slammed Grimes on the issue. But Grimes has kept up her coal talk on the campaign trail, including a recent tour of
an underground coal mine.
Michigan: Rep. Gary Peters is carving a path as a rare Democrat who is running a competitive race while making
climate change a prime issue. But Peters is not entirely on board with the administrations climate agenda; he
suggested that EPAs new power plant rule would require Michigan to make carbon cuts that are too steep
compared with neighboring states. Republican Terri Lynn Land has declared that climate change is absolutely a
reality but says its unclear how much is driven by human activity, matching the stances of GOP senators like
Marco Rubio and John Barrasso. This is another race targeted by Steyer, promising that millions more dollars with
green roots will pour into the election.
HOUSE RACES
IA-3: David Young, a former chief of staff to Sen. Chuck Grassley, pulled an upset win at Saturdays convention to
become the Republican nominee for the seat of the retiring Rep. Tom Latham. Young came in fifth out of six
candidates in the primary, but a convention of district Republicans selected him over several other candidates
including Iowa Renewable Fuels Association Executive Director Monte Shaw whose supporters flocked to
Young after they dropped out. Young will face Democrat Staci Appel in what Democrats hope will be one of the
more contested House elections.
Young supports reviving the wind production tax credit and reversing EPAs recent rollbacks to the RFS, he
told InsideSources in April. I dont believe [the PTC] should last forever, he said. And I believe we need to find a
consensus between industry and determine at what point they believe they can be self-sufficient whether that
be a glide path of five years, seven years, 10 years because I believe at some point they can become self-
sustaining. He added that EPA is messing around with the RFS, and we need to get that back in Congresss
hands. More: http://bit.ly/1rnBV2r (http://bit.ly/1rnBV2r)
LCVAF-backed candidates: Two candidates backed by the League of Conservation Voters Action Fund have
sailed through their recent primaries: Emily Cain in Maines 2nd District, to replace the departing Mike Michaud,
and Democrat Aimee Belgard in New Jerseys 3rd District, to replace the retiring Jon Runyan. Democrat Martha
Robertson is the only Democrat running against sophomore Republican Tom Reed in New York. And in California,
two LCVAF-backed Democrats came in second during the blanket primary system this month. Pete Aguilar landed
17.4 percent of the vote in CA-31, behind Republican Paul Chabots 26.8 percent. In CA-10, Michael Eggman
received 26.7 percent, behind incumbent Republican Jeff Denhams 57.3 percent. Both will go on to the general
election.
GUBERNATORIAL RACES
Pennsylvania: Democratic former state revenue chief Tom Wolf has at least a 20-point lead in recent polls over
Republican Gov. Tom Corbett, but the incumbent is trying to get mileage out of the EPA power plant rule. Corbett
has joined other GOP governors in slamming the rule and sought to connect it to Wolf. Wolf supports the rule as
flexible for states but says it must be implemented responsibly, something he argues Corbett couldnt do. Steyer
has targeted this race his NextGen Climate Action hopes to lure low-income voters it says suffer most from
pollution, as well as lapsed voters in overwhelmingly blue Philadelphia.
Florida: Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democratic challenger Charlie Crist are essentially tied in recent polling.
Scott has drawn attention for dodging climate questions by saying, Im not a scientist, earning him and other
Republicans an unnamed rebuke from President Barack Obama at an LCV dinner Wednesday. Steyer is also
getting involved in this race and will work on boosting Hispanic votes and talking up sea level rise. Crist, a former
Republican governor who switched parties, still has to get through the Aug. 26 Democratic primary against Nan
Rich.
Maine: Things are looking good for Democrat Mike Michaud, who has consistently shown a small lead over
incumbent Republican Paul LePage. The gap isnt insurmountable, however and throwing another monkey
wrench into the race is Maines independent streak, which gives lawyer Eliot Cutler more clout than the typical
third-party candidate (Cutler nearly beat LePage in 2010). Cutler has some Washington cred: He helped Sen. Ed
Muskie write the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act, and went on to found an environmental law firm that later
merged with Akin Gump. Cutlers recent polling has been in the mid-teens, but he is a candidate to keep an eye on.
Steyer completes his gubernatorial hat trick here, with messaging set to focus on the threat of climate change to
Maines forestry and fishing industries.
RECENT AND UPCOMING FUNDRAISERS, via the Sunlight Foundations Political Party Time
Alison Lundergan Grimes: DreamWorks CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg and Miramax Films co-founder Harvey
Weinstein hosted a cocktail reception for Grimes in New York on Monday: http://bit.ly/1uD1Lj5
(http://bit.ly/1uD1Lj5)
Charlie Crist: Broward County Commissioner Stacy Ritter hosted a Fort Lauderdale fundraiser Wednesday:
http://bit.ly/1uD1SuU (http://bit.ly/1uD1SuU) . And Bill Clinton will keynote a gala fundraiser for the Florida
Democratic Party on Saturday: http://bit.ly/1nxd9KO (http://bit.ly/1nxd9KO)
Mark Udall: President Barack Obama headlines an event for the Colorado 2014 Victory Fund on July 9:
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** Novembers election gives voters a powerful choice on energy. Smart energy policies can grow our economy,
create jobs and establish America as a global energy leader. The oil & natural gas industry supports $1.2 trillion of
GDP thats 8% of the total U.S. economy. America is now the worlds number-one natural gas producer and is
projected to be the worlds number-one oil producer by 2015. Our refineries create fuels for nearly 250 million
vehicles and commercial, private and military aircraft as well as the feedstocks for medicines, apparel and
fertilizer. With increased access to North American oil & natural gas resources, experts predict we can create 1.4
million new American jobs. All that adds up to a fundamental fact: expanding domestic energy production and
refining will create jobs, help grow our economy and keep us secure for generations to come. This election, get
involved at http://ChooseEnergy.org (http://chooseenergy.org) **