The Anja S.

Greer Conference on Mathematics, Science and Technology

Monday June 23, 2014
CWIC Session 3: Julia Graves A Simple Introduction to Statistical Significance
Diana Tunnell for MA901A2

Ms. Graves prefaced that this session was intended for non-teachers of statistics. In it we
were to review and discuss situations and logically conclude if there was a relevant
example of statistical significance or not. There were minimal calculations of counting and
percent, otherwise no hardy calculations common to a statistics course.
We began with defining what statistically significant meant. It was defined as an observed
difference that is unlikely to have occurred by chance. Generally, a less than 5%
occurrence would deem an outcome as not statistically significant or plausible by chance
alone. We were to use this definition to consider several examples for determination of
statistical significance.
The first example considered in the session referred to weight loss through the use of a pill
in a sample group compared to the an equal number group not taking the pill. Through
this first example we outlined the need for careful designed experiments, holding all other
variables constant within reason. For example, with this situation, it is safe to assume in a
carefully designed experiment that one group was not composed of near retirement age
while the other may have been a more youthful group. We considered different
combinations of weight loss outcomes to decide if the outcome could be due to chance and
therefore, not statistically significant.
The second example provided was of a situation comparing a designed experiment that
tested if drivers talking on a cell phone were more likely to miss an exit as compared to
drivers talking with a passenger. The experiment would take place in a simulator to
prevent risk of injury. We were asked to consider the statistical significance if out of 24 in
the cell phone group, 7 missed the exit and out of 24 in the passenger group, 2 missed the
exit. To model this example, we were given decks of cards and asked to remove any 4
spades in the deck. This left us with 48 cards representing the total number of drivers.
There were only 9 spades remaining which represented the total missers (cell phone -7 and
passenger -2). 24 cards were randomly selected from the deck and the number of spades
counted from the 24 removed. This number of spades was intended to simulate the
number of cell phone missers. Each group repeated the experiment and the totals were
tallied.
Our experiment resulted in only two occurrences of 7 drivers missing the exit. This value
was less than the 5% and we concluded that this study did not provide evidence of
statistical significance that cell phone usage would cause a driver to miss an exit more
often than speaking with a passenger. We ended the session with a discussion arguing the
appropriateness of using this example in a secondary class. Would this lead to a false
conclusion for teenagers that it is safe to drive while talking on a cell phone? We then
discussed that gut feeling tells us, such behavior probably is likely to result in a greater
likelihood of distraction and missing an exit. One option would be to alter the experiment
to test this thought. Repeating the experiment a thousand or more times, for example,

would provide a better tested outcome for this situation. Alternatively, one might
substitute comparing listening to the radio to speaking with a passenger.
In all, the session highlighted a number of things to consider when discussing statistical
significance in a non-statistics class. We had an overview of the vocabulary and
considerations of experimental design and potential meaning of results reported. We also
were reminded to consider the emotional or physical significance related to any given
situation.