Ngrams: The New Tool for Social Research

J ames A. Montanye


Abstract: The interactive Google Books Ngram Viewer has sparked interest in the
relative frequency of words and phrases contained in books published during the last few
centuries. The online system complements existing methods for literary and related
analyses. Less obvious, perhaps, is its usefulness as a tool for historical and contemporary
economic analysis. This essay addresses the nature and availability of ngram data. It also
demonstrates a method for combining time-series ngram and economic data in order to
discover correlations between published ideas and opinions on one hand, and the trend of
economic prosperity on the other.

he interactive Google Books Ngram Viewer has sparked both curiosity and
serious interest in the relative frequency of words and phrases contained in books
published during the last few centuries. The online Viewer, which was introduced
in 2009 and improved in 2012, complements existing methods for literary and related
analyses. Less obvious, perhaps, is its usefulness as a tool for economic analysis.
Changes in the relative frequency of words and phrases reveal not only variations in
language usage and the relative significance of ideas and opinions, but also the changing
relationship between scholarly and intellectual thinking on one hand, and the trend of
economic prosperity on the other hand.
Ngrams are relative, quantitative measures of word frequencies. The word itself is
a term of art in the argot of computational linguistics. (Note that ngrams are unrelated
to engrams, the latter being hypothetical changes in brain states that explain the process
of memory.) Googles interactive Ngram Viewer accesses a database of word frequencies
calculated from the millions of volumes that Google has scanned and archived. The data
are stratified by year, language, and in some cases by region. The corpus comprising
English language books published between 1800 and 2000 is searched by default. English
language volumes dating from 1500 are represented within a separate corpus headed
English One Million (2009). Ngram patterns are more volatile in earlier years due to
the smaller number of books represented.
The Viewer, which embodies many search and computational options, can be
accessed freely online at http://books.google.com/ngrams using Googles Chrome
browser. For any given word, or phrase containing five words or fewer, the Viewer
creates a line graph showing the relative frequency of usage by year. (The underlying
data can be extracted from the web pages source code via the browsers view source
tool.) A display depicting two or more ngrams reveals how words, concepts, and ideas
have shifted relative to each other over time.
Figure 1 demonstrates the Viewers operation. A wild-card search (* rights) of
the default English ngram corpus reveals that the discussion of rights in books
published during the years 1800 through 2000 mostly addressed human rights, civil
rights, and property rights (which gradually supplanted the more cumbersome phrase,
rights of property). Further searches on property rights in the separate American
and British corpora reveal that the discussion began in each country at least a century
T
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before Ronald Coases (1960) seminal paper on social cost. The discussion led prosperity
growth in America after 1900, but did not bloom in British texts (presumably both pro
and con) until well into the conservative Thatcher era. The prosperity trend line
appearing in this and all other Figures was derived outside of Googles system, in the
manner described in a following section.


Figure 1
Property Rights in Britain and America
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America Britain Prosperity


Data sources: Google (2013) and DeLong (1998).


The ngram patterns seen here might be significantly different if Googles database
included journals as well as books. This lacuna, among other intrinsic limitations, implies
that the data must be interpreted cautiously. Even so, the results provide useful clues in
the search for economic relationships and related causalities.

Quantifying Intellectual and Scholarly Opinion

Ngram data can be used to establish relationships between rising economic
prosperity on one hand, and intellectual and scholarly ideas and opinions concerning the
creation and distribution of that prosperity on the other hand. Words and ideas matter in
this realm. The venerable economist and historian Deirdre McCloskey (see, for example,
2010) has long stressed the significance of innovative ideas, virtuous beliefs, and rhetoric
as drivers of social and economic change. Joseph Schumpeter (1942) famously argued
that rising prosperity fuels an increase in the supply of intellectual ideas and opinions that
carry the seeds of creative social and economic destruction (see also Greenspan 2013,
189213). Consider, for example, Robert F. Kennedys familiar campaign quip from the
1960s to the effect that most people see conditions as they are and ask, Why?, while
Kennedy imagined how conditions might be improved and asked, Why not? Woodrow
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Wilson (1891, qtd. in Pestritto 2012, 333) wrote that a nation is an organic thing; and
that it dwells with those who do the practical thinking and organize the best concert of
action; those who hit upon opinions fit to be made prevalent, and have the capacity to
make them so. The economist Thomas Sowell (2009, 5, 282) emphasizes the importance
of studying the process by which intellectual and scholarly ideas and opinions develop
and spread: Because of the enormous impact that intellectuals can have, both when the
are well known and when they are unknown, it is critical to try to understand the patterns
of their behavior and the incentives and constraints affecting those patterns. ... [Most
consequential] is their creating a general set of presumptions, beliefs and imperatives a
vision that serves as a general framework for the way particular issues and events that
come along are perceived. Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan (2013, 258)
makes the point more narrowly: The roots of the issue of economic fairness, rarely
discussed outside the halls of academia, date back to the long-simmering debate about
who among the multitude of economic participants in the interconnected capitalist
production process has valid claims on shares of its output. To this day, it remains an
issue in dispute. The historical course of this dispute can be tracked through time using
Googles Ngram Viewer.

Quantifying Prosperity

Economist J. Bradford DeLong (1998) has assembled economic growth estimates
spanning the years 100,000 BCE to the present. His preferred point estimates of real
purchasing power provide a handy proxy for tracking changes in economic prosperity.
His data series contains estimates of real per-capita gross world product expressed in
hypothetical 1990 international (Geary-Khamis) dollars. The shape and timing of this
series is comparable to other published estimates (see, for example, Clark 2007, 2).
DeLongs estimates show prosperity increasing by an estimated total of two
percent between the Athenian Golden Age and the beginning of the seventeenth century.
In other words, the average individual living in the year 1600 CE enjoyed roughly the
same standard of living as antiquitys average philosopher. By 1700 the eve of the
Industrial Revolution, which conventionally spans the years 1750 to 1850 purchasing
power had increased by a total of 18 percent over that of ancient times. The increase
between 1600 and 1700 implies not only a somewhat different set of social mores, norms,
customs, and practices (see McCloskey 2010; King 2013), but also revised ideas and
beliefs about how this economic windfall might be distributed. By 1800, purchasing
power had increased by 41 percent over that of antiquity. By 1900 it had increased by
392 percent. The growth rate inflected upward following World War Two, and by 2000
the cumulative increase reached 4,638 percent. This pattern richly implies that modern
social ideas and opinions differ not only from those of ancient Athens, but also from
those of colonial America.

An Illustrative Study in Ngrams

Comparing changing economic prosperity with ngram patterns often reveals
startling correlations that suggest profitable avenues for further analysis. Two related
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issues are explored in the sections and Figures below: (i) the evolution of the rights
concept, and (ii) the redistribution of rights through rent seeking.

Evolution of the Rights Concept

In antiquity, only God (or the gods) had rights. Individuals had only a duty to
obey the natural law. Mainstream philosophy and law at that time entailed no concept
of individual rights (Maine 1861, 26970). This arrangement prevailed until John Locke
reasoned, in his Second Treatise on Government (1689), that the duties imposed by Gods
natural law necessarily entailed a scheme of reflexive natural human rights in life, liberty,
and property. Individual rights eventually came to be emphasized independently of the
correlative duties on which Locke predicated them.
Ngram data drawn from the English One Million (2009) corpus show rights
and duties tracking each other from 1700 until the late nineteenth century, at which
point the relevance of correlative duties declined. This pattern is visualized in Figure 2.
The shifts timing coincided not only with rising prosperity, but also with the
progressive economic and social ideals espoused by Thomas Paine and Karl Marx,
among others.


Figure 2
Rights, Duties, and Prosperity
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1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
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Rights Duties Prosperity


Data sources: Google (2013) and DeLong (1998).


Figure 2 spans the Industrial Revolution period. No explanation for the
Revolutions timing, and the spurt of prosperity growth that foreshadowed it, entirely
satisfies economic historians despite a thick and diverse literature (see McCloskey 2010
for a critique). Many scholars attribute these developments to the Protestant work ethic.
Economists, by comparison, often interpret them teleologically; that is, as the inevitable
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result of gradually increasing physical and human capital, coupled with the evolution of
increasingly efficient economic and political institutions. Other economists attribute
humanitys escape from the long Malthusian equilibrium to an unprecedented shock to
the social system; the Black Death, for example. Gregory Clark (2007, Chaps. 6 and 9)
uniquely attributes this shock to a survival of the richest manifestation of Darwinian
natural selection, by which the human propensity for personal gain suddenly achieved
critical mass, and propagated in its wake the biological genes and bourgeois values
(memes) responsible for prosperity growth. Deirdre McCloskey (2006 and 2012, with
more volumes forthcoming) attributes it to the relatively sudden expansion of individual
liberty, and to the dignity finally accorded bourgeois commercial pursuits.
William Casey King (2013), an historian and economics outsider, identifies a
feasible triggering circumstance. Kings insights constructively attributes prosperity
growth to the social, political, and religious transformation of personal ambition from a
despicable vice into a respectable, even dignified virtue. This transformation was
precipitated in part and indeed was necessitated by the New Worlds sudden opening
to exploration, exploitation, and religious proselytizing. These developments freed
ordinary individuals to indulge their natural, self-interested propensities for gain, and to
exercise more fully their instinctive, pragmatic sense of what McCloskey (2006) calls
bourgeois virtues. The social respectability of commercial pursuits broadened and
deepened as individuals discovered new paths to prosperity, both directly through their
own ambitious pursuits, and indirectly through the ambitions of others.
Clark (2007, 212) notes that [e]conomic institutions [are] just a set of rules about
who owns what and how ownership is determined... An efficient institutional structure
of ownership rights, whether achieved through spontaneous interactions among
individuals or by means of positive law, tends to be socially inclusive. The economic
historians Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2012, 364) argue that [r]ich nations
are rich largely because they managed to develop inclusive institutions at some point
during the past three hundred years. Rising prosperity thus resulted through an evolution
of the rights concept. At the same time, rights themselves came to be defined in an
environment of rising prosperity. In other words, rights and prosperity co-evolved.
Current thinking about rights is reflected in the Stanford Encyclopedia of
Philosophys comprehensive entry by that title. The entry begins with a definition:
Rights are entitlements (not) to perform certain actions, or (not) to be in certain states; or
entitlements that others (not) perform certain actions or (not) be in certain states (Wenar
2011). The entry goes on to note that [r]ights dominate modern understandings of what
actions are permissible and which institutions are just. Rights structure the form of
governments, the content of laws, and the shape of morality as it is currently perceived.
To accept a set of rights is to approve a distribution of freedom and authority, and so to
endorse a certain view of what may, must, and must not be done. The essential point
here is that the once-intrinsic link between rights, along with the correlative duties
prescribed by natural law thinking, largely have been abandoned outside of philosophical
circles.
The practice of defining rights in entitlement terms traces generally to the early
1960's, and specifically to writings by the legal scholar Charles Reich. Reich stretched
the meaning of entitlement to entail not only the prerogatives of a societys titled elite
(the terms historical meaning), but also to any and all recipients of public largess. In a
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seminal article titled The New Property (1964), Reich argued that welfare benefits are a
form of property in which beneficiaries have legally defensible claims as a matter of
positive right. Reich claimed, in other words, to have discovered a meta-level entitlement
to receive entitlements. The conflation of rights and entitlements obliterates the
former connection between individual rights on one hand, and classical economic
liberalism on the other hand.
Figure 3 contrasts the recent trend of entitlements thinking with the older view
(echoed in McCloskey 2010) that natural rights are integral to human dignity. An
ngram visualization using the English-corpus shows human dignity tracking the trend
of prosperity from 1800 until the 1930s, then increasing during the Great Depression and
World War Two, and then finally leveling off coincident with the rise of the
entitlements concept in the early 1960s. Entitlements shadows the pattern of
prosperity growth from 1960 onward.


Figure 3
Entitlements, Dignity, and Prosperity
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Entitlements Human Dignity Prosperity


Data sources: Google (2013) and DeLong (1998).


Rights and Rent Seeking

Lockes theory of natural rights, along with the freestanding concepts of rights
and entitlements that developed from it, have many detractors. Commenting on the neo-
Thomist philosopher Jacques Maritains book Freedom in the Modern World (1936), the
distinguished economist and philosopher Frank Knight ([1944] 1988, 320) began by
noting:

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The expressions natural law, natural rights, and rights of man are familiar
to every student of politics or ethics ... [This sort of] appeal to nature has always
been a slogan or Kampfwort; it has been used to beg the question in favor of any
position which a particular writer or school happened to wish to defend or
promote or against any one singled out for condemnation. The state of nature
has been a symbol either for idyllic social life or for all that is horrible. ... Natural
law has served as a defense for any existing order against any change and as an
argument for change in any direction. Prior to the eighteenth century, natural law
was chiefly a support for order and authority; since then, natural rights have
played the opposite role, as the appeal of the individual against government.
Finally, the nature from which laws or rights are derived has borne every
possible relation to God or the gods.

Knight defined rights tautologically, albeit insightfully: All rights, in the abstract, are
rights to freedom and power, for some use; they are conceivable only in relation to other
men and as generated by a combination of harmonious and conflicting interests (327).
The economist Thomas Sowell (2009, 88) offers a harsher, yet complementary
characterization: Rights, as the term is used ideologically, imply no mutual agreement
of any kind, whether among individuals, enterprises, or nations. ... [They] are ultimately
assertions of arbitrary authority by third parties to prescribe what others have never
agreed to. Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes viewed rights claims pejoratively as being
the most deceptive of pitfalls ... a constant solicitation to fallacy (qtd. in Sowell 2009,
90). These criticisms reduce to a condemnation of the economic process now called rent
seeking, which entails concerted social, intellectual, political, and legal actions to
acquire and distribute rights as positive entitlements.
A less virulent form of rent seeking, however, entails the more genteel process of
persuasion and negotiation between individuals and groups, as occurs in the ordinary
course of competition for scarce resources. The resulting distribution of rights is
emergent rather than being the result of economic and political logic. Friedrich Engels
aptly described to his literary associate Karl Marx the process by which these
distributions arise: what each individual wills is obstructed by everyone else, and what
emerges is something that no one willed (qtd. in Sowell 2009, 51). Engels description
anticipated the modern concept of emergence, which occurs spontaneously within
complex systems. The neuroscientist Michael Gazzaniga (2011, 124) describes
emergence as occurring when micro-level complex systems that are far from
equilibrium (thus allowing for the amplification of random events) self-organize
(creative, self-generated, adaptability-seeking behavior) into new structures, with new
propensities that previously did not exist, to form a new level of organization on the
macro level. Emergent distributions of rights are neither predictable nor reducible to
logical first principles. However, the intellectual efforts constituting the process can be
visualized using ngrams. Further analysis nevertheless is required to gauge the success of
these efforts.

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Using Ngrams to Detect Rent Seeking

The ancient Greek philosopher and scientist Archimedes is remembered in part
for claiming that that the physical world could be moved using only a fulcrum, a lever,
and a place to stand. Similar mechanics move the world of political economy. The
fulcrum in this context can be any historical belief or grievance (an ism) against which
recent events can be leveraged. (This designation of fulcrums and levers is metaphorical,
of curse). The place to stand is the public forum; upon a platform of published books, for
example. The thing to be shifted is the distribution of rights to shares in economic
prosperity.
Archimedean rent seeking can be detected by comparing (i) ngram measures of
the extent to which old grievances and recent events are discussed in tandem, with (ii) a
quantitative measure of economic prosperity. The expectation is that contemporary
events (levers) track prosperity more closely than do historical grievances (fulcrums).
Two examples are developed below. The first entails rent seeking to benefit
African Americans. Racism is the fulcrum against which the lever of slavery pivots.
The second area covers rent seeking to benefit Jews (see, for example, Finkelstein 2000;
Mearsheimer and Walt 2007). Anti-Semitism (a term coined in the 1880s to denote the
condemnation of Jews on racial grounds) is the fulcrum against which the Holocaust
lever pivots. (The Holocaust has supplanted Frances 1894 Dreyfus Affair, which
successfully levered both the Zionist movement and the resulting 1917 Balfour
Declaration that grounds the movements continuing claim to the land of ancient Israel.)
Both examples entail phenomena that are social, cultural, and entrepreneurial in
character, but not religious; neither the Holocaust (Novick 1999, 269) nor American
slavery became incorporated with the affected groups theological beliefs and practices.

Rent Seeking and African Americans

Figure 4 visualizes American-corpus ngrams for slavery and racism.
Racism is the fulcrum against which slavery pivots. The data show slavery
declining steadily until the mid-1950s Civil Rights era, then foreshadowing the rising
trend of racism and prosperity until the early 1970s. Rhetoric appears to have cooled
(relatively speaking, and for unexamined reasons) between the early 1970s and mid-
1980s, after which time the intensity of both slavery and racism once again paralleled
the pattern of rising prosperity.

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Figure 4
Racism, Slavery, and Prosperity
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Racism Slavery Prosperity


Data sources: Google (2013) and DeLong (1998).


Rent Seeking and Jews

Figure 5 visualizes English-corpus ngrams for Holocaust and anti-Semitism.
Anti-Semitism is the fulcrum against which the Holocaust is leveraged. Holocaust
(most capitalized occurrences of the term denote events perpetrated against Jews by Nazi
Germany) parallels the trend of prosperity from the mid-1950s onward, inflecting sharply
upward after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Anti-Semitism understandably increased
shortly before the Second World War, then subsided until 1980 when it began a sustained
rise above wartime levels.
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Figure 5
Anti-Semitism, Holocaust, and Prosperity
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Anti-Semitism Holocaust Prosperity


Data sources: Google (2013) and DeLong (1998).


Other Literary Movements

A leveraging event can be the publication of any book or article that captures the
publics imagination. Intellectual ideas and opinions have consequences, especially when
they are timely and well expressed. The CIAs decision in the late 1950s to print and
distribute copies of Boris Pasternaks novel Dr. Zhivago illustrates the point. The literary
biographer Michael Scammell (2014, 41) quotes from declassified CIA memos that
characterized Pasternaks book as being

more important that any other literature which has yet to come out of the Soviet
bloc. ... [CIA officials] believed in the power of ideas, and agreed with the CIAs
chief of covert action that books differ from all other propaganda media
primarily because one single book can significantly change the readers attitude
and action to an extent unmatched by the impact of any other single medium.
Crass and reductive as the sentiment may be, it acknowledges an important aspect
of literature that cannot be denied. Ironically, the idea seems to have been
borrowed from the Soviets themselves, who were guided by Maxim Gorkys 1934
dictum (itself reflecting centuries of Russian attitudes) that books are weapons,
the most important and most powerful weapons in socialist culture.

The Post-War period hosted a variety of social movements whose literary levers
contributed to the competition for shares of prosperity growth. Feminism, for example,
traces back millennia, and more recently to the nineteenth centurys first wave of
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suffrage and family planning movements. Feminisms modern lever (the second wave,
lasting from about 1960 to 1980) was Betty Friedans book The Feminine Mystique
(1963). Consumerism was the traditional concern of natural law philosophy and market-
process economics. Its modern lever was Ralph Naders book Unsafe at Any Speed
(1965), which addressed automotive safety. Environmentalism once followed the
romantic ideals of John Muir, Theodore Roosevelt, and Gifford Pinchot. Its modern
levers were Rachel Carsons book Silent Spring (1962), describing the collateral
consequences of pesticide use, and Garrett Hardins essay A Tragedy of the Commons
(1968), which made the intellectual case for government control over the environment.
Rising prosperity nurtured not only these movements, but also the present legalitarian
culture of using civil litigation to define the distribution of rights and entitlements.

Conclusion

Visualizing ngram and economic time-series data in tandem is a novel and
eminently useful method for economic analysis. It deserves widespread attention, and
surely will receive it in the fullness of time.

References

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Coase, Ronald. 1960. The Problem of Social Cost. Journal of Law and Economics 3(2):
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