NOAA/NWS Binghamton, NY

Flash Flood Potential from Arthurs Moisture

Thursday/Thursday Night
9:30 a.m. July 3rd , 2014
Warning Coordination Meteorologist: David Nicosia
FOR CENTRAL NY
This area includes but is
not limited to cities such
as Syracuse, Utica,
Ithaca, Elmira,
Binghamton, and
Oneonta.
FOR NORTHEAST PA
This area includes but
is not limited to cities
such as Towanda,
Montrose, Scranton,
and Wilkes-Barre.
This Briefing applies to
the NWS Binghamton
Service Area only:
Hazards
Flash Flood Potential Today is the primary hazard.
Flash Flood Watches in effect until this evening all of our
central NY and northeast PA counties.
Tropical moisture streaming northward from Arthur will
interact with a frontal boundary that will slowly work
east today.
This front will be the focus for very heavy rain that could
cause localized flash flooding.
A few thunderstorms that develop could produce
locally damaging winds and hail too.
The track of Tropical Storm Arthur will remain
well east of central NY and northeast PA.
Not expecting a widespread heavy rainfall directly from
Arthur.
Therefore no flooding is expected on our larger
river systems at this time.
Tropical Storm Arthur
Track



Water Vapor Satellite
9:00 AM


Arthur
Tropical Moisture from Arthur
Flash Flood Watch
Showers and thunderstorms will develop again across central NY
and northeast PA as a cold front works slowly east today.
Timing:
Early to mid afternoon across the Finger Lakes to Upper
Mohawk Valley.
Late afternoon to the evening across northeast PA, southern
tier of NY to the Catskills.
Arthur will enhance the moisture available to storms leading to
the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding where
thunderstorms persist the longest.
Flash Flood Watch in effect until late evening.


Areas that saw heavy rainfall
yesterday will be more
susceptible to flash flooding.
Rainfall(inches) from
yesterdays storms
1/2 to 2 inches
3 to 5 inches
Threshold Rainfall (inches)
to begin Flash Flooding in
1 hour.
Threshold Rainfall (inches)
to begin Flash Flooding in
3 hours.
Severe Thunderstorm
Risk Today
Today
Approaching cold front will produce scattered thunderstorms
First in the Finger Lakes to Mohawk Valley Noon to 4 pm.
Late afternoon to evening farther southeast into central NY/Catskills
and northeast PA.
Primary threat is for damaging winds. Hail is also a possibility.
Best chance for
strong to isolated
severe thunderstorms here
Summary
Localized flash flooding possible
from this afternoon to tonight with
any thunderstorms that form.
Some thunderstorms could produce
locally damaging winds and hail.
Arthur is projected to remain well
east of our area and not directly
impact us.
Not expecting a widespread heavy
rain that will cause problems on our
larger rivers.

Monitor Conditions!
Continuous updates: http://weather.gov/bgm
National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Storm Prediction Center
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/




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