March 2013 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this document Market research
Nicolai Hansteen Direct: +47 2287 8817 Email: nicolai.hansteen@pareto.no Equity research
Jonas Advocaat Kraft Direct: +47 2413 2188 Email: jonas.kraft@paretosec.com Equity research
Eirik Haavaldsen Direct: +47 2413 2120 Email: eha@paretosec.com 2 Status quo is depressing for most segments Source: Pareto Research, Marsoft Utilization is the key indicator for shipping returns 75% 100% Depression Euphoria.. 80% 85% 90% 95% Container Tanker Bulker LNG D a y r a t e s
4 Smaller dry bulkers outperform larger due to versatility Source: Pareto Securities, Marsoft, Clarksons Research Services Capesize spot rates Panamax spot rates Supramax spot rates Handysize spot rates 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 5 Yr Avg 2012 2013 Current USD/d 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 5 Yr Avg 2012 2013 Current USD/d 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 5 Yr Avg 2012 2013 Current USD/d 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 5 Yr Avg 2012 2013 Current USD/d 5 Dry bulk market balance to turn positive during 2013 DWT supply growth vs DWT demand growth We estimate the dry bulk market balance to turn positive in 2013 with net supply growth at 7%, below DWT demand growth of 8% Source: Pareto Securities, Marsoft 5.3% 3.8% 13.4% 11.3% 10.0% 7.7% 6.0% 4.4% 7.1% 7.1% 14.9% 15.2% 12.9% 6.7% 2.6% 2.1% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e Demand growth, DWT Supply growth, DWT y/y growth 6 which should lead to higher market utilization We forecast utilization to improve in 2013 and onwards, yet stay below the 10-year avg of 93% Rates should stay below pre- financial crisis levels, but slowly increase from the lows in 2012
Dry bulk fleet utilization Source: Pareto Securities, Marsoft Base case USD/d Cape (170' dwt) " Pmax (74' dwt) " Hmax (51' dwt) " Hsi ze (27' dwt) " 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2000-2011 avg 21,000 13,000 12,000 41,000 69,000 50,000 45,000 117,000 105,000 42,000 33,000 16,000 8,000 12,000 19,000 28,000 47,000 11,000 9,000 8,000 20,000 36,000 25,000 24,000 57,000 49,000 19,000 25,000 14,000 8,000 9,000 16,000 20,000 25,000 11,000 9,000 9,000 16,000 31,000 24,000 23,000 48,000 41,000 17,000 22,000 14,000 10,000 10,000 15,000 18,000 22,000 7,000 6,000 7,000 11,000 19,000 17,000 14,000 30,000 29,000 11,000 16,000 11,000 8,000 8,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 95% 96% 95% 95.2% 97.3% 95.6% 92.7% 91.5% 88.4% 86.2% 87.0% 89.9% 91.9% 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013e 2015e Avg capesize rates (rhs) Utilization (lhs) Utilization % USD/d 7 Steel mills ramping up production for fiscal stimulus package Growth in global steel production is centered on China Source: Marsoft/Pareto China est. 2013 2014 2015 2016 GDP 8.2% 8.5% 9.1% 8.8% Steel prod. 7.3% 7.5% 7.2% 7.1% Best case 8.5% 8.7% 8.3% 8.1% Low case 4.2% 4.4% 4.3% 4.1% Growth in global steel production is centered on China Fiscal stimulus package of RMB 1 trillion, equivalent of USD 150 bn, is being directed primarily at new infrastructure projects Steel mills are ramping up production geared towards the construction sector 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Other Asia J apan Europe China Million metric tonnes 8 Iron ore imports boosted by ramp-up in steel production Chinas iron ore imports will reach 1bn tons by 15 Source: Marsoft/Pareto Ramp-up in steel production boosting iron ore intake Chinas imports will exceed 800 mill. tons in 13 Annualized imports of 1bn tons in Q4 2015
Chinas iron ore is becoming poorer in Fe content. Average domestic iron ore estimated to 16.5% in Fe grade Consequently, Chinas import need is not only about need for volumes, but also about need for higher grade material to offset its domestic low grade iron ore Calling on Australia and Brazil 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Brazil Australia India Other Million metric tonnes 9 Newbuilds at historical troughs Capesize newbuilding prices at historical low adjusting for inflation, given a NB price of USD 46m The calculation uses US inflation rate. Inflation adjusted levels probably higher historically, given above inflation growth rates in steel plate and labour costs Nominal and inflation adjusted capesize NB prices Source: Pareto Securities, Clarksons Research Services 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Nominal pri ces Inflation adj. prices USDm 10 Table of contents 1. Dry bulk 2. Product tankers 3. Crude tankers 4. LNG
11 World oil production, demand and refinery capacity growth from 2012 to 2016 *Production growth excludes biofuels and OPEC NGLs Source: IEA; Pareto North America
12 The tanker market is changing in favor of product tankers Source: DAmico Shipping Tanker shipping evolution Refining capacity building up closer to the oil reserves, in particular in the Middle East ME refining capacity is expected to grow with as much as 1.2mbd over the next three years, and 1.9mbd per day 2011-2017 Despite India and China also rapidly ramping up capacity, we expect product trade from the Middle East to Asia to grow rapidly going forward In OECD countries, we see limited new refinery expansion, and their relatively older refineries are also less able to alter between different product types All of this results in increased tonne-mile demand for all types of product types: Regional market imbalances (shortage in OECD..) Arbitrage trading emerging 13 Second lowest orderbook in the shipping industry Source: Pareto Securities, World Yards, The total product tanker orderbook is now at 9.5%
Nominal orderbook by segment in DWT 22.3% 22.2% 18.1% 11.8% 11.7% 9.5% 9.3% 7.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Container LNG Drybulk Crude LPG Product Ro-Ro Chemical % of exi sting fleet 14 LR2 orderbook is low Lowest nominal orderbook in the LR2 segment: 3.9% of existing fleet
Source: Pareto Securities, WorldYards Product tanker nominal orderbook in dwt 3.9% 6.4% 16.5% 11.0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% LR2 LR1 MR MR Chem/Prod % of fleet 15 Demand growth exceeds supply growth We reiterate our view that the product tanker market will tighten going forward after four very difficult years Net supply growth of 3.7% forecasted for 2013, below demand growth of 4.6%. The net market balance tightens further in 2014 and 2015
DWT supply/demand growth vs prod tankers avg earnings Source: Pareto Securities, Clarksons 3.7% 3.2% 0.9% 4.6% 6.2% 6.1% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014E Clean tankers avg earnings (rhs) Supply (lhs) Demand (lhs) y/y change, % USD/d 16 Spot bombed out but shows signs of recovery Source: Pareto Securities, Clarksons YTD avg tanker earnings of USD 18,500/d well above the avg the past four years, but below the 01-09 avg 2009-2012: USD 12.0k/d 2001-2009: USD 25.8k/d 1990-2012: USD 16.6k/d
Clean tanker average TCE earnings (all segments) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 1990 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 USD/d 17 Volatility implies a tighter market MR rates on the benchmark Cont-USAC leg (TC2) has avg USD 18k/d YTD Rate spikes in the Atlantic MR market indicate that capacity utilization should be in the high 80s level
Source: Pareto Securities, Imarex, Bloomberg, Clarksons Research Services MR spot rates -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec USD/d 2012 2013 FFA 2013 FFA 2014 MR rates Cont-UK/USAC (TC2) and current FFA 0 7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013e 2015e USD/d Spot 10yr average Spot USD/d 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e LR2 " 31,000 40,000 41,000 32,000 26,000 43,000 17,000 15,000 10,000 12,000 16,000 21,000 27,000 LR1 " 25,000 32,000 34,000 28,000 27,000 37,000 14,000 14,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 19,000 23,000 MR " 18,000 24,000 25,000 22,000 21,000 21,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 7,000 15,000 17,000 20,000 18 Nominal newbuild prices at inflation adjusted trough levels Nominal and inflation adjusted MR NB values Source: Pareto, Clarksons Research Services, Bloomberg MR newbuilding prices at the lowest level since beginning of 1987 adjusting for inflation, given a NB price of USD 33m With spot rates back to 04-08 levels, this implies an EBITDA payback of 5-6x 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1976 1978 1980 1983 1985 1987 1990 1992 1994 1997 1999 2001 2004 2006 2008 2011 Nominal prices Inflation adj prices USDm 19 Fuel efficient designs indicate downside in resale values MR values and NPV of fuel savings over the lifetime of the asset Source: Pareto Securities The NPV of the fuel savings of a MR which burns 20% less fuel is USD 9m over the lifetime of the vessel (USD 4,600/d) This indicates further downside in resale values, given that resales are trading on oar with current broker quotes FRNT 2012 estimate the cost efficiencies of new generation eco-design MR to be USD 6,000/d, which implies a NPV of 12m over the lifetime of the vessel Assumptions: WACC 10%, 25 years lifetime, standard consumption 35 tons/d, bunker price IFO 380 cst at USD 650/t, 20% savings fuel efficient design, 205 effective fuel consumption days (65% of days at sea, 55% of seatime in laden condition, 70% of consumption in ballast versus laden condition) 33 9 24 33 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 MR NB cost current NPV bunker savings MR implied value resale MR resale current quote USDm -26% 20 Table of contents 1. Dry bulk 2. Product tankers 3. Crude tankers 4. LNG
21 Crude tanker supply/demand balance Source: Pareto, Marsoft We forecast the crude tanker market will remain difficult through 2013 and 2014 Demand growth stable around 2.5% Recovery likely to be slow In the supply growth figures we here assume just below 10m dwt of crude tanker capacity scrapped: 5.9m dwt VLCC (19 vessels) 2.4m dwt Suez (15 vessels) 1.3m dwt Afra (12 vessels) It will be a difficult 2013, but hopes for recovery in 2014 5.2% 2.3% 6.5% 3.9% 7.7% 5.3% 4.1% 2.3% -1.5% 0.8% -1.9% -5.5% 5.0% 4.4% 5.6% 2.1% 2.3% 2.6% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Net supply growth Demand growth 22 2013 becoming the worst year ever? Source: Pareto, Clarksons, PF Basse 2013 starting off as the worst year in history Average YTD for VLCCs is ~7k February-March seeing an average of ~2.8k VLCC average spot rates 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec USD/d 5 Yr Avg 2012 2013 Current 23 2013 becoming the worst year ever? Source: Pareto, Clarksons, PF Basse 2013 starting off as the worst year in history Average YTD for VLCCs is ~7k February-March seeing an average of ~2.8k VLCC average spot rates in Q1 22,141 69,435 90,459 87,393 85,357 47,635 129,456 56,441 54,704 23,086 21,330 7,203 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 24 Somewhat better for suezmaxes Source: Pareto, Clarksons, PF Basse Driven by some higher Black Sea Med. activity Suezmax rates improved somewhat last month Still, levels below 2012 Suezmax average spot rates 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec USD/d 5 Yr Avg 2012 2013 Current 25 VLCC fixture activity picked up last week Total VLCC spot fixtures Source: Pareto, Clarksons 51 fixtures last week, compared with 4W average of 37 Positive trend, after a very slow start Spike actually driven by AG-West rather than East
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Vessels 5 Yr Avg 2012 2013 Current 26 Yet, vessel availability remains at unusually high levels VLCC availability MEG next four weeks Source: Pareto, Clarksons 94 vessels expected to the MEG over the next four weeks
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Vessels 5 Yr Avg 2012 2013 Current 27 No matter what, 2013 will be weak! Current fleet vs. orderbook for VLCCs Source: Pareto, Clarksons 642 56 23 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Current fleet 2013 deliveries 2014 deliveries # of VLCCs ~9% ~4% 28 No scrapping so far in 2013 VLCC and Suezmax scrapping: Q1 09-13 Source: Wordlyards Not a single VLCC or suezmax scrapped so far in 2013 One reason could be that listed players do not want to take huge write-downs 1 10 1 6 0 1 5 2 8 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11 Q1'12 Q1'13 # of vessels Suezmax VLCC 29 Table of contents 1. Dry bulk 2. Product tankers 3. Crude tankers 4. LNG
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Spot rate $'/day $/btu spread JPN-EUR Gas price spread JPN-EUR LNG spot rates 30 LNG spot rates coming further down Source: Pareto Securities, Factset, Fearnley LNG LNG spot rates vs. Euro-JPN gas price spread Spot rates now reported below USD 110/day Warmer weather in Asia has also reduced demand for LNG there, resulting in falling natural gas prices
31 Because of lack of LNG supply Source: Pareto Securities, Bloomberg Growth in LNG supply (bcm) Global LNG supply fell in 2012, after a few years of rapid growth This is due to delays in project start-ups, but also significant production issues in many existing plants
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e LNG supply growth y/y 32 Uncommitted newbuilds starting to arrive later this year Source: Pareto Securities, Bloomberg Delivery schedule LNG carriers Current orderbook ~24% of existing fleet, with most of this arriving in 2014 ~44% of vessels under construction do not have contracts at this point 20 vessels arriving in 2014 without contracts secured at this point
2 5 6 3 5 6 5 3 0 1 1 0 1 1 7 5 3 6 3 3 5 5 2 1 4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Q1'13 Q3'13 Q1'14 Q3'14 Q1'15 Q3'15 Q1'16 Q3'16 # of units Contracted Available 33 And the market balance is uncertain going forward Source: Pareto Securities, Bloomberg Growth in LNG supply (bcm) Supply growth in terms of LNG vessels) is outgrowing demand growth in 2013- 2015 87 vessels in the orderbook between now and 2017, with 37 of them being without contract Seven of those arriving this year, 20 in 2014 and eight in 2015
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Appendix B Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading ST Regulation 3-11, letters d-f, ref the Securities Trading Act Section 3-10 Overview over issuers of financial instruments where Pareto Securities AS have prepared or distributed investment recommendation, where Pareto Securities AS have been lead manager/co-lead manager or have rendered publicly known not immaterial investment banking services over the previous 12 months: Appendix C Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading ST Regulation 3-11 (4) Column I shows the overall ratio of Buy, Hold and Sell in Paretos Recommendations in financial instruments. Column II shows the ratio of Buy, Hold and Sell in Paretos Recommendations in financial instruments where Pareto Have provided investment banking services to the issuer the previous 12 months. Appendix A Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulations section 3-10 (2) and section 3-11 (1), letters a-b Pareto Securities AS does not alone or - together with affiliated companies or persons owns a portion of the shares exceeding 5 % of the total share capital in any company where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by Pareto Securities AS. Pareto Securities AS or its affiliates own as determined in accordance with Section 13(d) of the Exchange Act, 1 % or more of the equity securities of Equinox Offshore Accommodation Ltd. Pareto Securities AS may hold financial instruments in companies where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by Pareto Securities AS in connection with rendering investment services, including Market Making. Please find below an overview of material interests in shares held by employees in Pareto Securities AS, in companies where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by Pareto Securities AS. By material interest is meant holdings exceeding a value of NOK 50 000. Column I Column II Buy 66.1% 85.70% Hold 25.4% 11.40% Sell 8.5% 2.90% This overview is updated quarterly (last updated 15.01.2013). Company Analyst holdings Total holdings Company Analyst holdings Total holdings Archer - 17 500 Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap - 920 Bonheur - 15 800 Orkla - 22 564 BW Offshore - 61 686 Petroleum Geo-Services - 2 700 BWG Homes 14 300 14 300 Prosafe - 1 405 Cermaq - 3 000 Protector Forsikring - 499 000 Discovery Offshore - 12 000 Questerre Energy - 67 000 DNB - 48 227 Renewable Energy Corp - 52 256 DNO International - 20 400 S.D. Standard Drilling - 100 000 DOF - 100 000 SalMar - 58 400 EOC Limited - 25 000 Sandnes Sparebank - 5 617 Farstad Shipping - 21 700 Seadrill - 5 500 Fred Olsen Energy 100 300 Selvaag Bolig - 50 000 Gjensidige Forsikring - 48 528 Ship Finance Ltd - 3 184 Golden Ocean Group - 50 200 Solstad Offshore - 4 100 Havila Shipping - 3 650 Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge - 20 637 Hegh LNG - 7 263 Sparebank 1 SR-Bank - 143 117 Itera 40 000 41 000 Sparebanken st - 22 349 Kongsberg Gruppen - 59 700 Statoil - 8 742 Lery Seafood Group - 20 700 Storebrand - 2 263 Marine Harvest Group - 20 000 Subsea 7 - 76 471 Morpol - 18 000 Telenor - 7 800 Noreco - 75 000 TGS-NOPEC - 7 450 Norsk Hydro - 286 308 Veidekke - 42 400 Northland Resources - 467 000 Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding A - 404 Odfjell - 7 300 Yara International - 30 519 Thi s overvi ew i s updated monthl y (l ast updated 31.12.2013) - Aker - Havila Shipping - Protector Forsikring - Aker Floating Production - Hercules Offshore - Rocksource - Austevoll Seafood - Houston American Energy Corp - Saga Tankers - BassDrill - Hegh LNG - SalMar - Bergen Group - Idex - Scana Industrier - Berner Gruppen - Interoil - Scandinavian Insurance Group - BNBank - Kistefos - Seadrill - BW Offshore - KrisEnergy - Selvaag Bolig - Clearwater - Mecom Group - Siemens - Concedo - Morpol - Sigma Drilling - DDI - Neptune Offshore - SinOceanic Shipping - Det Norske Oljeselskap - Noreco - Solr Bioenergi - DNB - Norse Energy Corp - Songa Offshore - Dockwise - North Atlantic Drilling - Sparebank 1 SR Bank - DOF - North Energy - Sparebanken Mre - Dolphin Group - Northern Offshore - Sparebanken st - EMS Seven Seas - Northland Resources - Teekay - Equinox - Ocean Yield - Teekay LNG - Expro Intl Group - Oceanteam Shipping - Tizir - Floatel - OSX - Troll - GasLog - Pacific Drilling - TTS Group - Global Investment Group - Panoro Energy - Wilh. Wilhelmsen - Grieg Seafood - Prosafe - Xtreme Drilling and Coil Services - Haikui - Prospector Offshore Drilling - Protector Forsikring - Rocksource This overview is updated monthly (this overview is for the period 31.12.2011 31.12.2012). 39 Disclaimers and disclosures
Appendix D This section applies to research reports prepared by Pareto hman AB. Disclosure of positions in financial instruments The beneficial holding of the Pareto Group is 1 % or more of the total share capital of the following companies included in Pareto hman ABs research coverage universe: Isconova. The Pareto Group has material holdings of other financial instruments than shares issued by the following companies included in Pareto hman ABs research coverage universe: RusForest. Disclosure of assignments and mandates Overview over issuers of financial instruments where Pareto hman has prepared or distributed investment recommendation, where Pareto hman AB has been lead manager or co-lead manager or has rendered publicly known not immaterial investment banking services over the previous twelve months: Africa Oil Isconova ShaMaran Petroleum Alpcot Agro Klvern Sagax Blackpearl Resources Lucara Diamond Tethys Oil Black Earth Farming RusForest Vostok Nafta Members of the Pareto Group provide market making or other liquidity providing services to the following companies included in Pareto hman ABs research coverage universe: Africa Oil Isconova Tethys Oil Blackperal Resources ShaMaran Petroleum Trigon Agri Lucara Diamond Members of the Pareto Group have entered into agreements concerning the inclusion of the company in question in Pareto hman ABs research coverage universe with the following companies: Africa Oil, Isconova, Shamaran Petroleum. This overview is updated monthly