Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management 9 (2003) 217224
A grounded denition of supply risk
George A. Zsidisin* Department of Marketing and Supply Chain Management, The Eli Broad Graduate School of Management, Michigan State University, N362 North Business Complex, East Lansing, MI 48824-1122, USA Received 10 December 2001; received in revised form 11 December 2002; accepted 27 July 2003 Abstract All purchasing organizations encounter supply risk, whether it is explicitly understood and assessed, or reactively managed. The purpose of this paper is to provide a grounded denition of supply risk. Case study data from seven purchasing organizations uncovered various denitions of supply risk. These denitions focus on the sources of supply risk, emanating from individual supplier factors and market characteristics, and the outcomes of supply risk events, which involve the inability of purchasing rms to meet customer requirements and threats to customer life and safety. Findings from this research provide practitioners and academicians a starting point for understanding supply risk and insights as to how supply risk can negatively affect business operations. r 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Supply risk; Grounded theory; Risk; Uncertainty 1. Introduction Risk and uncertainty have been studied in numerous business settings and have warranted signicant inves- tigation in corporate functions, such as managerial decision making (March and Shapira, 1987; Shapira, 1995; Yates and Stone, 1992), strategy (Ruei et al., 1999; Sitkin and Pablo, 1992; Wiseman and Bromiley, 1991), operations (Newman et al., 1993; Pagell and Krause, 1999), accounting (Ashton, 1998; Baucus et al., 1993), nance (Chow and Denning, 1994; Ho and Pike, 1992) and distribution (Celly and Frazier, 1996; Lassar and Kerr, 1996). Risk has been dened as the extent to which there is uncertainty about whether potentially signicant and/or disappointing outcomes of decisions will be realized (Sitkin and Pablo, 1992, p. 10). Inherent in this denition are the dimensions of outcome uncertainty, outcome expectations, and outcome potential. From transaction cost (Williamson, 1975) and agency (Eisenhardt, 1989a) theory perspectives, outcome un- certainty is associated with the variability of outcomes, lack of knowledge about the distribution of potential outcomes, and uncontrollability of outcome attainment. According to prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979), outcome expectations suggest that positive ex- pected returns facilitate different decision framing and decision-making behavior than negative expected out- comes. The third dimension of risk, outcome potential, argues that individuals often overweight extreme out- comes, even if their likelihood of manifestation is removed (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979; Sitkin and Pablo, 1992). Risk within a supply management context may be viewed in a similar manner. For example, there can be outcome uncertainty associated with whether a supplier is able to make product design and specication changes in a timely manner for new products (Bidault et al., 1998). However, there is little understanding of what risk means within a supply management context, although a few scholars have begun to address the issue. Harland et al. (2003), in their study of risk assessment and management tools, adopt a denition of input risk from Meulbrook (2000). In addition, Zsidisin et al. (1999) provide a preliminary denition of supply risk in their exploratory study of supply risk assessments and contingency plans. However, a grounded denition of supply risk has yet to emerge in the purchasing and supply management literature. Therefore, the purpose of ARTICLE IN PRESS *Tel.: +1-517-353-6381x269; fax: +1-517-432-1112. E-mail address: zsidisin@msu.edu (G.A. Zsidisin). 1478-4092/$ - see front matter r 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.pursup.2003.07.002 this paper is to provide the purchasing and supply management eld with a denition of supply risk in order to guide and encourage future research on supply risk and its management. 2. Denitions of risk The concept of risk has been extensively studied in various business contexts. Three notable studies provid- ing insights to the meaning of risk are provided below. 2.1. Baird and Thomas Baird and Thomas (1990) have dened risk from eight different perspectives. Their arguments incorporate views from nance, marketing, management, strategy, and psychology. Table 1 presents the eight risk denitions and a brief description of each. The rst three denitionsvariability of returns, variance, and market riskfocus on the organizations nancial return. The last two denitions of risk as disaster and as accounting risk measures relate to the risk of a company going bankrupt. These denitions of risk provide evidence that risk is a multi-dimensional construct and differs according to business function. 2.2. Shapira (1995) An often-cited denition of risk in the academic literature is the variance of the probability distribution of outcomes (March and Shapira, 1987, p. 1404; Shapira, 1995, p. 43). However, Shapira (1995) found that very few managers dene risk in those terms. Instead, managers identify (1) the downside of risk, (2) its magnitude of possible losses, (3) the act of risk taking involving the use of skills, judgment and control, and (4) risk as a concept that cannot be captured with a single number. A list of these four risk aspects and brief denitions is also presented in Table 1. These ndings also suggest that the term risk can be perceived in different ways, and no single denition of risk may be appropriate in all circumstances. 2.3. Yates and Stone (1992) Yates and Stone (1992) note that risk entails (1) the elements of loss, (2) the signicance of loss, and (3) the uncertainty associated with loss. Within the elements of loss are three additional factors. First, risk is not limited to one specic loss that can occur. This is similar to the variance of outcomes discussed by March and Shapira (1987), with the exception that it focuses only on losses. For example, a re that destroys a suppliers plant can affect production for 1, 2 days, or even months. The incident can result in various degrees of loss (outcomes) for the supplier as well as the suppliers customers. Losses are also experienced in reference to an outcome. What is important is not the loss itself, but the actual outcome in comparison to an expected outcome. Another facet of loss is multiplicity, in which losses can transcend multiple categories such as nancial, performance, and time loss. The second aspect of risk is the signicance of loss. It is often assumed by researchers and laypersons that the more signicant the potential losses in a situation, the greater the implied risk. For example, there would be greater perceived loss by a purchasing rm if a suppliers ARTICLE IN PRESS Table 1 Risk characteristics and denitions Reference Risk characteristics Denition Baird and Thomas (1990) Variability of returns Firm performance evaluated in terms of return and growth criteria Variance Variability of the probability distribution of returns Market risk The use of the capital asset pricing model to measure risk Risk as innovation Risk conditions equated with conditions characterized by newness, uncertainty, and lack of information Risk as lack of information Information scarcity as a key facet of uncertainty in terms of the existence of important resources and commitment duration Risk as entrepreneurship Independence of action in venturing into the unknown Risk as disaster Strategies that could result in corporate disaster, bankruptcy or ruin Accounting risk measures Accounting ratios related to risk of ruin, default or bankruptcy Shapira (1995) Downside of risk Risk being associated with a negative outcome Magnitude of possible losses compared to its probabilities At least one possible outcome of an uncertain situation having a bad outcome Distinction between risk taking and gambling Risk taking is associated with using skills, judgment, and control, while gambling is not Risk as a multi-faceted construct Risk cannot be captured with a single number, since multiple facets such as nancial, technical, marketing, production and other risk aspects exist G.A. Zsidisin / Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management 9 (2003) 217224 218 failure results in the chance of losing $10,000 of customer business as compared with the chance a recall will occur that would result in a loss of millions of dollars in revenue. The third risk element is uncertainty, where uncer- tainty is associated with the degree of condence a decision maker can develop probability and outcome assessments of decisions (Mitchell, 1995; Luce and Raiffa, 1957; Chiles and McMackin, 1996). Additional facets of uncertainty involve a lack of understanding by decision maker about the loss categories that exist, and which losses can occur. 3. Prior denitions of supply risk There are few denitions for risk within the context of supply. Kraljic (1983) discusses risk in terms of supply market complexity. Kraljics perspective of risk incor- porates supply scarcity, the pace of technology and/or materials substitution, entry barriers, logistics cost or complexity, and monopoly or oligopoly conditions. Other denitions of supply risk that do exist have emerged from research studies focusing on supply risk assessments and management. Harland et al. (2003) dene supply risk as one of 11 risk types. They adopt Meulbrooks (2000) denition of supply risk as ad- versely affects inward ow of any type of resource to enable operations to take place; also termed as input risk. (p. 308). In addition, Zsidisin, Panelli, and Upton dene supply risk as the transpiration of signicant and/or disappointing failures with inbound goods and service (p. 187). This denition focuses on outcomes and was proposed in an exploratory study of supply risk assessments and contingency plans. Mitchell (1995) has investigated risk within organizational buying behavior. His literature search uncovered numerous factors that potentially affect managerial risk perceptions of pur- chasing professionals. A summary of prior denitions of supply risk and supply risk factors can be found in Table 2. The remainder of this paper will discuss the research method implemented for creating a grounded denition of supply risk. Next, the research ndings, which describe supply risk by its sources and outcomes, are presented. Industry characteristics and differences are then presented to illustrate how they affect organiza- tions denitions of supply risk. Managerial implications and conclusions are provided at the end of the paper. 4. Research method The research process consisted of conducting case studies with purchasing organizations involved in supply risk management. The case studies were used to build a ARTICLE IN PRESS Table 2 Supply risk denitions and characteristics Reference Risk characteristics Denition Harland et al. (2001) Supply risk Adversely affects inward ow of any type of resource to enable operations to take place; also termed input risk Zsidisin et al. (1999) Supply risk The transpiration of signicant and/or disappointing failures with inbound goods and service Mitchell (1995) Buyer demographics The effects of factors such as age, professional organization membership, education, and job experience on risk perceptions Job function Risk perceptions differ according to the job and position of the buyer Decision-making unit The greater the risk involved, the greater the propensity to group, buy and share the risk involved Buyers personality Intrinsic motivational factors exist, such as the need for certainty, self-condence, and the need to achieve, which affect individual risk perceptions Buy-type Perceived risk differs if it is considered a new buy, modied rebuy, or straight rebuy Product characteristics Technical complexity and value of the item are positively correlated with the degree of perceived risk Degree of customer/supplier interaction The extent of communication or state of the relationship between a buyer and supplier inuences the degree of perceived risk Characteristics of customer/ supplier markets The propensity to innovate, stability of the market structure, and growth rate affects risk perceptions Company size The occurrence of performance risk is much higher among buyers in small companies because of the rms limited ability to tolerate nancially unfavorable decision consequences Organizational performance Risk taking is affected by the relationship between the companys current position and some critical reference points Country Country of origin of the buyer affects an individuals risk preference G.A. Zsidisin / Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management 9 (2003) 217224 219 theory of supply risk using a grounded theory approach (Eisenhardt, 1989b; Glaser and Strauss, 1967; Wacker, 1998), where the researcher begins with an area of study and allows the theory to emerge from the data (Strauss and Corbin, 1998, p. 12). Case study participants were pre-screened through initial telephone, in-person, or e-mail interviews. Organizations with established supply risk assessment or risk management processes were solicited for further study, even if no formal denition of supply risk existed at their rms. The case studies were conducted until the researcher reached a point of information saturation, where many of the concepts of supply risk discussed by the case study participants became repetitious (Strauss and Corbin, 1998). A case study research protocol was created prior to data collection and rened after the pilot case study. All of the case studies were conducted at the companies locations. In the few circumstances where in-person interviews were not possible with certain individuals, telephone interviews were conducted following the guidelines proposed by Walton (1997). The case study organizations consisted of a conve- nience sample of electronics and aerospace rms. Five manufacturers in the electronics industry were selected due to rapid technological development cycles and dynamic customer demand changes (Fine, 1998). To obtain insights as to whether supply risk and supply risk management differ between industries, two rms in the aerospace industry were also selected. Information gathering techniques such as obtaining historical data and documentation, and conducting anywhere from three to six structured interviews with various professional purchasing personnel and other key informants from each rm, were implemented during the case studies. Since one of the goals of the research was to investigate how purchasing organizations dene risk, the purchasing function was the unit of analysis. Purchasing professionals were asked how their organi- zations dene supply risk. If a formal organizational denition of supply risk did not exist, the researcher asked how that individual dened supply risk from a purchasing organization perspective. Data generated in the case studies was subject to open and axial coding analysis, as per the guidelines set by Miles and Huberman (1984), Strauss and Corbin (1998), and Yin (1994). Open coding breaks down case study data in order to analyze, conceptualize, and develop categories for the data. Axial coding is a technique that makes connections among categories, groups issues during rst- level coding, and summarizes the issues into themes. 5. Research ndings The research ndings indicate that there are a variety of ways to dene supply risk. Two of the organizations, Cell and Semi1, have formal organizational denitions of supply risk. The ve other organizations did not have formal denitions of supply risk disseminated through- out their rms. However, each of the case study participants had an explicit understanding of what supply risk means within their position and organiza- tion. These denitions of supply risk were discussed in terms of sources and outcomes, as discussed below. 5.1. Organizational denitions of supply risk Cell denes supply risk as the danger that events or decisions will obstruct the companys achievement of its objectives. The events and decisions include potential direct losses as well as opportunity costs. This denition of risk is disseminated and understood throughout the organization. The purchasing and supply management function at Cell has adopted this denition of risk in its supply strategy to support overall corporate goals and direction. In contrast, Semi1 denes supply risk as anything that impedes the introduction of a new product, or any event that could disrupt production. This denition of supply risk focuses on the introduction of new products. By the time a product is considered mature, Semi1 believes that most supply risk characteristics have already been identied. 5.2. Classication of supply risk The majority of rms in this study do not currently have formal denitions for supply risk. However, each of the respondents from those rms had strong conceptions of what supply risk means to their organizations. Case study participants provided deni- tions of supply risk by its sources and outcomes. The sources of supply risk were described in terms of individual supplier failures and supplier market char- acteristics. Respondents conceptualized the outcomes of supply risk by the inability to meet customer require- ments and threats to customer life and safety. Table 3 provides an overview of the classications and related factors that the case study participants used to dene supply risk. 5.2.1. Sources of supply risk According to the case studies, the sources of supply risk tend to arise from individual supplier failures and from market factors. The individual supplier failures that dene the scope of supply risk were the inability to handle demand uctuations, quality problems at sup- plier plants, and the inability to stay in pace with technological changes. In addition, supply risk was understood in terms of supplier market characteristics. Market characteristics include sole sources (such as ARTICLE IN PRESS G.A. Zsidisin / Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management 9 (2003) 217224 220 suppliers having a patent) and market capacity con- straints. 5.2.1.1. Individual supplier failures. Five of the seven rms noted individual supplier factors within their denitions of supply risk. For example, a respondent from Aero1 stated Supply risk is when there are suppliers that their failure would affect the ability for our rm to make nancial goals at the end of the year. This denition of supply risk species supplier failures as a cause of supply risk. However, the denition does not provide any detail about what constitutes failure. Two additional denitions of supply risk provide more details regarding individual supplier failures. A respondent from Comp1 believed, Supply risk is the inability to develop products on time and deliver those products into manufacturing. In addition, one Comp2 participant stated, Supply risk is the uncertainty associated with supplier activities, obligations, and in general, supplier relationships. Supply risk boils down to the three components of price (best deal), quantity, and demand. These denitions of supply risk indicate that supply risk originates from individual supplier failures, and these failures consist of issues such as quality, delivery, relationships, and price. 5.2.1.2. Market characteristics. Several supply risk de- nitions focused on factors originating from market characteristics instead of individual supplier failures. For example, a respondent from Aero2 was concerned with availability. This respondent noted, Supply risk is having a single or sole source supplier, without having a proven or established second sourcey[which] occurs when there are patents on [the] supplier end without a backup. There were two recent incidents related to market characteristics that affected the perceptions of many case study respondents. The rst one involved the tantalum capacitor shortage that occurred in 2000. Several of the case study respondents noted that part of the shortage was due to the rapid growth of the cellular phone industry. Although most of the rms expected greater demand for those capacitors, none of them anticipated the extent that the cellular phone growth ARTICLE IN PRESS Table 3 Classication of supply risk denitions Aero1 Comp1 Comp2 Cell Aero2 Semi1 Semi2 Sources Individual supplier failures X X X X X X New product development problems X X Delivery failures X Relationship issues X Supplier obligations to other customers X Quality problems X X Price/cost increases X X X Inability to meet quantity demand X X Technologically behind X Discontinuity of supply X Market characteristics X X X X Sole source/limited qualied sources X X Market shortages X X Commodity price increases X X Geographic concentration of suppliers X X Supplier patents X Outcomes Inability to meet customer requirements X X X X X X X Unable to meet customer specications X X Subcontractor failures X Impedes new product introductions X X Missed shipments X X Negative effect on prot targets X X X X X Loss of customer business X Failure to meet customer demand X Threats to customer life and safety X X Product liability and integrity X X Quality failures result in loss of life X X G.A. Zsidisin / Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management 9 (2003) 217224 221 would have on their rms ability to acquire piece parts such as tantalum capacitors. This incident was discussed by many case study respondents in their perceptions of what supply risk means to their organizations. A second incident that several of the case study respondents described in their denitions of supply risk was the September 1999 earthquake in Taiwan. This event had signicant repercussions for many rms, especially in preparation for forecasted sales of the holidays. The earthquake disaster had detrimental effects on many suppliers, which had subsequent ripple effects throughout many supply chains. 5.2.2. Outcomes of supply risk Supply risk was also dened in terms of negative outcomes, specically the inability to meet customer requirements or threats to customer life and safety. All the rms understood supply risk in terms of meeting customer requirements, which can result in the loss of customer business and detrimentally affect revenues and prots. Threats to customer life and safety, on the other hand, arise from issues with product integrity, dur- ability, and reliability. If a product has a failure in the eld, such as a part on an aircraft, the ramication of that failure can lead to consumer injury or even death. 5.2.2.1. Inability to meet customer requirements. All of the organizations stated that supply risk results in the inability of the purchasing rm to meet their customers requirements. For example, one respondent from Aero1 stated, Supply risk is the failure to provide a seamless ow of product to the customer that meets or exceeds specication. Another example of supply risk resulting in the inability to meet customer requirements was provided by a participant in Comp2, who stated, Supply risk affects getting product out to market (i.e. built by subcontractors). It is an event that disrupts the delivery of products to the customer, or impedes the production of new items to customers. Since these rms perceive the effects of supply risk from a supply chain perspective, the organizations are dening supply risk in reference to meeting customer demand. Specically, the case study rms not only looked at supply risk from the link between their rm and supplier organizations, but also its effect on their internal operations, on customer rms, and eventually on the nal consumer. To emphasize this point, one respondent from Comp1 stated, Supply risk is the potential for a supply constraint on a subassembly or component that affects the shipment of product. In addition, an Aero2 case study respondent viewed supply risk as ynot being able to satisfy customer demand. It affects the longevity of our rm and jobs. These denitions of supply risk focus on the ability to meet customer demand, and, eventually its impact on the entire supply chain. 5.2.2.2. Threats to customer life and safety. Two of the organizations also stated the effect of supply risk in terms of customer life and safety. Both of these rms are suppliers in the aerospace industry, where the ramica- tions of quality and reliability problems can have devastating effects on consumers. For example, a case study participant from Aero2 understood supply risk to consist of product liability and integrity where the parts must meet requirements. The nal product manufactured by aerospace com- panies can have a direct impact on customer safety if a failure occurs. Failure of the products manufactured by electronics rms normally does not have life or death ramications for their customers. As noted by one respondent from Aero2, There are no service stations at 33,000 ft. 6. Proposed denition of supply risk The ndings from this research provide evidence that, similar to prior denitions of risk, purchasing organiza- tions perceive supply risk as a multi-dimensional construct (Hallikas et al., 2002; Shapira, 1995; Yates and Stone, 1992). The scope of supply risk was dened in terms of sources, either from individual supplier failures or market factors, and outcomes, which include the inability to meet customer requirements and threats to customer life and safety. Therefore, a new denition of supply risk is proposed below: Supply risk is dened as the probability of an incident associated with inbound supply from individual supplier failures or the supply market occurring, in which its outcomes result in the inability of the purchasing rm to meet customer demand or cause threats to customer life and safety. Supply risk is a multi-faceted concept, since its scope includes risk sources and outcomes. In addition, the scope for understanding supply risk differs according to industry. As the research indicated, aerospace rms are more likely to understand supply risk in terms of threats to customer life and safety. The nding that supply risk is a multi-faceted concept that differs according to industry is similar to prior studies investigating risk denitions (Pablo, 1999). 7. Managerial implications Understanding and managing risk is an important issue of business and has been extensively studied in many business disciplines. Even though there is a rich stream of literature investigating risk, there has been little research applied to the risk that exists with inbound supply. In order to start closing the research ARTICLE IN PRESS G.A. Zsidisin / Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management 9 (2003) 217224 222 gap in supply risk management, this research, through the use of case studies, investigated how organizations dene supply risk. The denitions of supply risk provided by case study participants show that supply risk is a multi-dimensional construct. The most widely held denition of supply risk focuses on understanding how risk affects a purchasing rms ability to meet its customers requirements. However, the meaning of supply risk can differ according to factors such as industry, source, and outcome. This contributes to theory by providing researchers with an empirically based denition for supply risk and presenting insights into how those denitions may change according to industry context. In addition, having an empirically grounded deni- tion of supply risk provides greater detail for under- standing an overall supply network risk tool proposed by Harland et al. (2003). The tool, which can be found in Fig. 1, begins with mapping the supply network, then involves identifying risk and its current location, assessing that risk, managing the risk, forming a collaborative supply network risk strategy, and, nally, implementing a supply network risk strategy. One key element missing within this tool is how organizations dene supply risk. Although Harland et al. (2003) provide an initial denition of supply risk, that denition had not been empirically validated and was only one type of risk identied. This research provides a grounded denition of supply risk, which can help purchasing organizations understand the sources and outcomes of supply risk for their rms. The sources and outcomes of supply risk discovered in this research are not mutually exclusive. In fact, several of the risk characteristics may have a compound- ing effect. For example, the source of risk from the September 1999 earthquake in Taiwan was that many suppliers of passive components were located within the same geographical location. From a supply side perspective of several of the rms in this study, this event manifested in market shortages for these compo- nents as well as signicant commodity price increases. In addition, the outcomes of this event resulted in the loss of customer business, the failure to meet customer demand, and negative effects on prot targets. The managerial implications of this nding parallels the research of Hallikas et al. (2002), who discovered vicious circles of supply network risk due to factors such as pricing, forecasting, delivery performance, and nancial implications. Therefore, it is imperative for supply management professionals to understand both the sources as well as outcomes that incorporate supply risk because the effects of detrimental supply events can have ramications throughout a rms supply chains or networks. The insights for understanding what supply risk means provides a starting point for managing that risk. In dening supply risk, most of the research participants went beyond viewing risk inherent in dyadic interorganizational relationships with suppliers. This was reected in the ndings that supply management professionals understand the effects of risk on meeting their customer requirements. In addition, several exam- ples of supply risk provided by the research participants involved supply failures from second and third tier suppliers, such as the negative ramications of the Taiwan earthquake in 1999 and tantalum capacitor shortage of 2000. This view of supply risk becomes a cornerstone for understanding supply chain or supply network risk, which would involve dening and studying risk at numerous inter- and intra-organizational levels. Future research would be necessary for providing academicians and practitioners alike insight for dening, and eventually assessing and managing, supply chain or supply network risk. These studies can investigate risk in additional industry areas as well, such as automotive, telecommunication, and pharmaceutical rms, to deter- mine if additional nuances for dening supply and supply chain risk exist. 8. Conclusion Risk exists in virtually all rms, and has been extensively studied in various business contexts. How- ever, a gap exists in studying risk within purchasing and supply management. This study has investigated, through the use of case study data, how risk is dened within a supply management context. Supply risk was perceived by purchasing organizations to incorporate its sources and outcomes. In addition, industry differences were found in the case study data, where suppliers in the aerospace industry focus on the threats to customer life and safety. From the case study data, an empirically grounded denition of supply risk was provided. ARTICLE IN PRESS Map supply network Identify risk and its current location Assess Risk Manage Risk Form collaborative supply network risk strategy Implement supply network risk strategy Fig. 1. Supply network risk tool (Harland et al., 2003). G.A. Zsidisin / Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management 9 (2003) 217224 223 Theoretical and managerial implications were also discussed. By establishing a grounded denition of supply risk, purchasing professionals have a starting point for creating strategies, which include assessing and managing supply risk, to better meet customer rm and consumer requirements. 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نصراللهی، زهرا. و صالحی قهفرخی، فخرالسادات. (1394) - مکان یابی شهرکهای صنعتی با توجه به شاخنص های توسعة پایدار با استفاده از تحلیل سلسله مراتبی و توابع فازی (مطالعه موردی شهرک صنعتی یزد)