BG Group plc's strategy, operations, financial performance or condition, outlook, growth opportunities or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from the guidance given in this presentation for a number of reasons. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this presentation.
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Original Title
01_01-Anthony-Barker-BG-Singapore-Presentation - Emergence of a New LNG Market
BG Group plc's strategy, operations, financial performance or condition, outlook, growth opportunities or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from the guidance given in this presentation for a number of reasons. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this presentation.
BG Group plc's strategy, operations, financial performance or condition, outlook, growth opportunities or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from the guidance given in this presentation for a number of reasons. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this presentation.
<Title of Presentation> By: <Author Name>, <Organization> <Date>
17 th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION ON LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG 17) Singapore: Emergence of a new LNG market By: Dr. Anthony Barker, BG Group 16 April 2013
17 th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION ON LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG 17)
Legal notice The following presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning BG Group plcs strategy, operations, financial performance or condition, outlook, growth opportunities or circumstances in the countries, sectors or markets in which BG Group plc operates. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve uncertainty because they depend on future circumstances, and relate to events, not all of which can be controlled or predicted. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Actual results could differ materially from the guidance given in this presentation for a number of reasons. For a detailed analysis of the factors that may affect our business, financial performance or results of operations, we urge you to look at the Principal risks and uncertainties included in the BG Group plc Annual Report & Accounts 2011. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast and no part of this presentation constitutes, or shall be taken to constitute, an invitation or inducement to invest in BG Group plc or any other entity, and must not be relied upon in any way in connection with any investment decision. BG Group plc undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this presentation and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by BG Group plc or any of its respective subsidiaries, affiliates and associated companies (or by any of their respective officers, employees or agents) in relation to it.
Singapores challenges Source: Wood Mackenzie, November 2012 & EMA Singapore Energy Statistics Report 2012 75.7% 20.3% 4.0% 2011 gas demand Power Industry Other 84.1% 15.9% 2011 gas supply Indonesia Malaysia 78.0% 18.4% 3.6% 2011 fuel mix for electricity generation Natural Gas Petroleum Products Others Power Industry Other Indonesia Malaysia Natural gas Petroleum products Others Consolidating demand Marketing multiple gas sales contracts Inventory management and 24/7 commercial operations Market development Sources: BG Group estimates 2012,Schlumberger Business Consulting, 2009 Singapore LNG demand 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 m t p a Meeting Singapores challenges Source: BG Group, 2012 Aggregator (BG Group) Terminal owner (Singapore LNG) Energy Market Authority of Singapore Gas buyers LNG supplier (BG Group) BG Groups LNG marketing Henry Hub m t p a
Singapore Source: BG Group Strategy Presentation, February 2012 Global assets, supply and markets * Exclusive right to supply Potential liquefaction Existing long term supply source Liquefaction under construction Equity position Existing import capacity Long term customer UK USA Nigeria Egypt Trinidad & Tobago EG Chile Singapore* Australia Tanzania Canada China Japan Brazil India Pipeline gas moratorium Vesting contracts SLNG step-in and underwriting Policy and regulatory support EMA initiatives and policies 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Q 2
2 0 1 2
Q 3
2 0 1 2
Q 4
2 0 1 2
Q 1
2 0 1 3
Q 2
2 0 1 3
Q 3
2 0 1 3
Q 4
2 0 1 3
Q 1
2 0 1 4
Q 2
2 0 1 4
Q 3
2 0 1 4
M W
Incremental gas generation capacity Source: Tri-Zen Consulting, BG Group estimates, May 2012 Long-term sales 3 mtpa exclusive franchise to supply Singapore Approx 2.6 mtpa contracted with 10 20 year supply periods 10 gas buyers and ~15 GSAs Long-term sales projection Source: BG Group, November 2012 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 Q 1
2 0 1 0
Q 4
2 0 1 0
Q 3
2 0 1 1
Q 2
2 0 1 2
Q 1
2 0 1 3
Q 4
2 0 1 3
Q 3
2 0 1 4
Q 2
2 0 1 5
m t p a
Singapore franchise state of play 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2 0 1 3
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 6
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 8
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 0
2 0 2 1
2 0 2 2
2 0 2 3
2 0 2 4
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 6
2 0 2 7
2 0 2 8
2 0 2 9
2 0 3 0
2 0 3 1
2 0 3 2
2 0 3 3
Remaining Sales (3mtpa Franchise Forecast) Contracted Long-term Sales m t p a
Source: BG Group, November 2012 Contracted long-term sales Remaining sales (3 mtpa franchise forecast) Long-term sales BG Group has contracted at three long-term price tranches Singapores power market is now well supplied with long-term volumes Buying interest seen from 2018 onwards Replacement of expiring pipeline gas import contracts Demand growth driven by industry
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2 0 1 3
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 1
2 0 2 3
2 0 2 5
m t p a
Incremental demand Sumatra pipeline gas replacement Natuna pipeline gas replacement Malaysia pipeline gas replacement BG Group franchise Short-term supply security 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2013 2014 2015 m t p a
Source: BG Group, December 2012 Available volumes for short-term sales BG Group committed volumes Potential for short-term sales Short-term sales 79% 21% 2013 volumes Through 2012, BG Group worked closely with the regulator (EMA) to develop: Standardised master short-term GSAs Stand alone short-term GSAs Short-term interest driven by: Ramp up and commissioning requirements Operational concerns Commercial opportunities to access spot LNG Pipeline gas displacement Power market opportunities Long-term sales Short-term sales 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2 GSA1 GSA2 GSA3 GSA4 GSA5 Cargoes m t
Consolidating demand Aggregator's short-term and spot GSAs 1
c a r g o
2
c a r g o e s
3
c a r g o e s
Market development Source: BG Group, November 2012 Singapore LNG inventory Term LNG Fuel oil & oil products Indonesia piped gas Malaysia piped gas Spot LNG Electricity procurement 100 150 200 250 300 2 0 0 5
Sources: BG Group estimates, November 2012 & EMA procurement framework consultation paper, March 2012 Aggregator franchise long-term contracted supply Long-term supply opportunities (EMA consultation paper) Aggregator franchise 3 mtpa Short-term supply opportunities Gas demand (EMA consultation paper) Terminal max throughput facilities under construction Pipeline gas displacement LNG is competitive against pipeline gas in Singapore Spot LNG prices regularly support short-term displacement of pipeline gas with LNG
Pipeline gas prices S p o t
L N G
p r i c e s
Pipeline gas displacement Market development LNG reloads Physical reload capability enables break bulk trans-shipment Demand side interest in LNG reloads for various regional markets Early stage assessment of LNG bunkering under way SLNG full development Source: EMA.gov.sg Conclusions Close cooperation among BG Group, SLNG and EMA Aggregator model tailor made to meet Singapores gas market challenges. It could be adapted to introduce LNG to new markets BG Group is committed to ongoing development of Singapore gas market