La Ciudad como un

Drama en el Tiempo
10 Aniversario del Centro Cultural
de la Repblica El Cabildo
Ing. Scott Augustine Muller
17 de junio, 2014
Aleksandr Malin, Creative Commons via Mushy Cloud.
Sistema Socio-Ecologico
Ecologia Urbana
Entorno
Construido
Bio-fisica
Sistemas
Sociales
Sistema Socio-Ecologico
cultura
entorno
construido/
artefactos
humanos
animales
domesticados
medio
ambiente
Area cultural de
causas
Area natural de
causas
Sociedad Materiales
Fischer-Kowalski and Weisz (1999, p. 242)
A SSE Model that places the built environment (an
artifact) in an overlapping zone between culture and
nature, with causation occurring in both directions
Ho-Yeol Ryu
La Era
Antropcena
NASA Goddard, 2014
Hacia Nuevas
Polticas Culturales
La Era
Antropcena
NASA Goddard, 2014
Hacia Nuevas
Polticas Culturales
Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). From Latin America and the Caribbean Atlas of our Changing Environment (2010).
1977
Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). From Latin
America and the Caribbean Atlas of our Changing Environment (2010).
Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). From Latin America and the Caribbean Atlas of our Changing Environment (2010).
1977
2008
Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). From Latin
America and the Caribbean Atlas of our Changing Environment (2010).
1973
Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). From Latin
America and the Caribbean Atlas of our Changing Environment (2010).
1973
2008
Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). From Latin
America and the Caribbean Atlas of our Changing Environment (2010).
Impacto Humano = P x A x T
Modified from National Geographic, March 2011
Poblacin
Afluencia
Tecnologia
La tecnologa y el
consumo, son ahora los
agentes primarios de
cambio, no la
poblacin
1
9
0
0
2011
7 billion
2.5 billion
1.8 billion
141,000
412,000
1.9 million
1
9
5
0
$
5
.
3

t
r
i
l
l
i
o
n
$
2

t
r
i
l
l
i
o
n
$55 trillion
source unknown
S. Muller, 2014
SANDIE BESSO, on Flickr
Panam
Panam - patrimonio en peligro
Lima
S. Muller, 2014
Porcentaje de la poblacin
que reside en reas
Urbanas
Region 1950 2030
Africa 14.4% 47.7%
Asia 17.5% 55.5%
LAC 41.4% 83.4%
Eastern Africa 5.5% 32.4%
Middle Africa 14% 51.2%
Northern Africa 25.8% 57.5%
Southern Africa 37.7% 66.7%
Western Africa 9.7% 55.4%
Caribbean 36.9% 74%
Central America 39.2% 77.3%
South America 42.8% 86.9%
Oceania 62.4% 71.4%
Eastern Asia 17.8% 71.7%
Central Asia 32.7% 45%
Southern Asia 16% 40.8%
Southeast Asia 15.4% 55.7%
Africa
Asia
LAC
Eastern Africa
Middle Africa
Northern Africa
Southern Africa
Western Africa
Caribbean
Central America
South America
Oceania
Eastern Asia
0% 23% 45% 68% 90%
1950 2030
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision.
New York, 2012
Grupo de Trabajo sobre la
Integracin Subnacional
Grupo de Trabajo sobre la
Integracin Subnacional
Porcentaje de la poblacin
que reside en reas
Urbanas
Region/ Pais 1950 2030
Africa 14.4% 47.7%
Asia 17.5% 55.5%
LAC 41.4% 83.4%
Caribbean 36.9% 74%
Central America 39.2% 77.3%
Sur America 42.8% 86.9%
Paraguay
34.6% 70.5%
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision.
New York, 2012
Poblacion Urbana Total (miles)
Pais 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
% cambio
1950-2030
LAC 69,264 108,540 163,402 232,955 311,620 393,619 465,246 531,235 585,347 745%
Caribbean 6,301 8,324 11,537 15,373 19,097 23,575 27,725 31,361 34,312 445%
Central America 14,864 23,985 37,415 55,259 73,588 102,446 112,339 132,090 149,832 908%
Sur America
48,009 76,231 114,450 162,323 218,936 276,800 325,183 367,785 401,202 736%
Paraguay
509 678 920 1,332 2,067 2,957 3,961 5,050 6,116 1,102%
2015= 64.0%
S. Muller, 2014
Lima
S. Muller, 2014
Buenos Aires
McInnes, L. 2009. GNU Free Documentation License.
Iguazu, 46,000m
3
/s
Junio 2014
Brasil, Cicln Catrina,
Marzo 2004
Astronaut photograph taken from ISS
Imagen satellital TERRA de NASA,2009
Tormenta cyclonical
inusual, 22 de Mayo 2009
0
75
150
225
300
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
1900-1930 1990-2009 2080-2099
Average Monthly Rainfall (mm)
World Bank Climate Change Portal 2.0, Data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of University of East Anglia (UEA)
Paraguay
0.0
8.5
17.0
25.5
34.0
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
1900-1930 1990-2009 2080-2099
Average Monthly Temperature (C)
World Bank Climate Change Portal 2.0, Data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of University of East Anglia (UEA)
Paraguay
Tiempo
Conflictos
Sociales/ Political
Transformaciones
Vitalidad Nueva
Desastres
Naturales
Cultura
}
}
Estados
Emergentes
Contexto
Transdiciplinario,
multi-generacional
Diverso, inter-conectado, libre para auto-
organizarse, globally constrained
Modified from
Vanasupa et al,
2014
Cambio Climtico
Que impacto tiene la meta 2C para las Ciudades?
Rango de tendencias de emisiones para limitar el aumento en la
temperatura global
I
inflows
O
outflows
Q
internal flows
S
storage
P
production
B biomass
M minerals
W water
E - energy
MIT Workshop, Jan 2010
Metabolismo Urbano
Enfoque: Servicios de los Ecosistemas
Los beneficios que la gente obtiene de los ecosistemas
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005
Servicios Ecosistmicos Urbanos
Adapted from 2013, Wilkinson, C. et. al, 2013. n. Ecology and Society 18(1): 37 http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-05368-180137
Ej. ASEAN, Servicios Ecosistemicos Urbanos
Valor Reconocido
Valor No Reconocido
Valor Demonstrated
Cultura
Cultura
Cultura
Valor
capturado
Modified from TEEB, 2010
@ScottA_Muller s.muller@mac.com
La Ciudad como un Drama en el Tiempo
10 Aniversario del Centro Cultural de la Repblica El Cabildo
Ing. Scott Augustine Muller
17 de junio, 2014