Guide to using

Convective Weather Maps

Oscar van der Velde
www.lightningwizard.com
last modified: August 27
th
, 2007
Reproduction of this document or parts of it is allowed with permission. his document ma! "e updated at an! time.
#icture ta$en %a! &'
th
2007, &70( )*, in southwesterl! direction from oulouse, +rance
Introduction
, have finall! written some e-planation for !ou a"out the parameters plotted in the
maps and how to use them. he maps are presented on
http:..www.lightningwizard.com.maps and http:..lightningwizard.estofe-.org, the
latter is the server hosting the maps.
%an! parameters are "ased on concepts of /parcel theor!/ which descri"es what
happens to a 0parcel1 of air when "rought to a different pressure, relative to their new
surroundings. %! purpose is not to e-plain all details of ph!sical meteorolog! 2!ou will
find it in an! meteorolog! te-t"oo$ and also in the ver! good %et3d modules on the
we"4, "ut how to appl! the parameters plotted in the *onvective 5eather %aps to
forecasting.
, started pla!ing around with 6rA78 in +e"ruar! 2002 with data from the AV9 model
from the 9ational *enter for 3nvironmental #rediction 29*3#4 which had a grid
spacing of &-& degree. 9ow the maps are run from the 6+8 model at 0.: degree grid.
5hile , have alwa!s "een interested in forecasting thunderstorms, almost no model
output was availa"le for 3urope with useful parameters for this purpose, indicating
different measures of insta"ilit!, vertical wind shear, or low;level convergence. ,t is
ver! important to have enough parameters availa"le to construct a conceptual image of
the timing and t!pe of thunderstorms that are thought to occur. his is wh! the 8torm
#rediction *enter in the )nited 8tates has a wide variet! of parameters availa"le for
this purpose 2see their %eso;anal!sis section4. %an! parameters were tested on
soundings 2e.g. pu"lications of Rasmussen, <roo$s in Weather and Forecasting4 and are
proven s$illful in forecasting severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, while "eing "ased
on parcel theor! and results from cloud;resolving modelling studies of the interaction
of vertical shear with updrafts and downdrafts in thunderstorms 2"! researchers
5ilhelmson, 5eisman, =lemp and Rotunno4.
his $nowledge is now increasingl! common among those who have a strong interest
in chasing or forecasting thunderstorms in particular and want to have a reasona"le
s$ill doing so. ,n m! e-perience however, most national weather forecasting offices at
this side of the ocean are lagging "ehind, while more and more statistical approaches to
forecasting are ta$en. 8tatistics are fast to implement in products, "ut at the cost of
conceptuall! $nowing what is going on in the ph!sical world. +or e-ample, the concept
of convective modes 2single cell, multicell, supercell, mesoscale convective s!stem4 is
strongl! tied to vertical wind shear and this can ma$e an enormous difference in the
character of thunderstorms. ,f a forecasting office does not pa! attention to these
concepts and fails to recognize important radar characteristics of ongoing storms,
severe weather ma! result without warning.
, hope this document will inspire ever!one to ta$e a deeper loo$ at the ph!sics of
severe storms, their forecasting, how to recognize them on radar, and what to do with
this information for !our purpose 2the latter two are "e!ond the scope of this
document4.
he three "asic ingredients for severe deep convection are insta"ilit!, lift, and vertical
wind shear. ,n man! situations, without a good source of lift 2e.g. a front, trough, sea
"reeze convergence, dr!line, forced flow over mountains4 a parcel which has
conditional insta"ilit! will have trou"le to rise out of the "oundar! la!er and form a
persisting convective storm. 5ithout vertical shear 2change of direction and speed of
the horizontal wind with height4 a storm will have trou"le to live longer than a"out >:
minutes and die, instead of organizing itself into a cluster or %*8, or develop a rotating
updraft, with all conse?uences for severe weather potential.
Note: references will be added later.
For a quick and entertaining crash-course in operational severe storm meteorology, highly
recommend !et"d: http:##www.meted.ucar.edu#topics$convective.php
The Maps
he e-amples "elow are from &0 @ul! 2007, for &:A. his da! featured a cold front over
eastern 3urope along which severe thunderstorms developed, with a tornado at &(>:
)* in southwestern Romania, large hail over central Romania in the evening. %ore
events li$el! happened along the front, "ut have not reached the 3857. 8upercells
were visi"le also on 8er"ian radar. A t!pical spout situation was present over
9etherlands into 6erman! with several complete spouts and funnels having "een
reported during late morning and afternoon, and a few cases of up to 2 cm hail over
6erman! later towards.in evening. At the time of the satellite image, the storms over
western )$raine from the earl! afternoon have produced a large cirrus shield alread!.
he purpose here is onl! to show e-amples of the parameter fields, not to discuss the
case in detail 2refer to the forecast archive of the 3uropean 8torm +orecast 3-periment,
www.estofe-.org4. A different case ma! "e selected in a later version of the document.
1. MLCAPE (and MSL Pressure, !! hPa Geopotentia" #eights$
his map offers a usual view of common heights for a ?uic$ overview of pressure
s!stems, with the addition of mi-ed;la!er *A#3 2*onvectivel! Availa"le #otential
3nerg!4.
*A#3 is the potential energ! a parcel has when it is lifted to its level of free convection
and "ecomes warmer than its surroundings, e-periencing upward "uo!anc!. he
potential energ! can "e converted to $inetic energ! reflected in upward motion. An
vertical speed could in principle "e calculated from this, "ut parcel theor! is not perfect
and does not account for things li$e precipitation drag or d!namic pressure
contri"utions of vertical shear. Bowever, higher *A#3 t!picall! involves stronger
storms with a higher chance of large hail and other severe weather. hat said, note that
*A#3 is usuall! of lesser importance than the vertical shear environment for tornadoes,
while the pro"a"ilit! of large hail increases with *A#3, given at least moderate shear
2values around :00;&000 @.$g are sufficient4.
*ontri"utors to *A#3 are steep temperature lapse rates from low to mid levels and a
warm and humid "oundar! la!er. he colder the mid levels are compared to the parcel,
and the higher the parcel e-periences upward "uo!anc! 2high e?uili"rium level4, the
larger *A#3 in general. Bowever, warm, dr! la!ers at low levels ma! function as a cap
that prevent "oundar! la!er parcels from reaching the level of free convection, and ma!
prevent storms from developing 2see C+*;C*C map4.
he *A#3 used in these maps is calculated for a parcel with mi-ing ratio and potential
temperature averaged from the 0;& $m la!er, "ecause it reflects the process of mi-ing in
the "oundar! la!er. 9ote that the pro"lem of 6+8 overestimating low level dewpoints
2and hence *A#34 in conditions of wea$ winds and strong insolation in the summer
half !ear is somewhat mitigated "! not including the 2;meter level in the calculation.
+inall!, "e aware that *A#3 is ver! sensitive to small differences in the moisture and
temperature profiles, as well as the calculation and used parcel. ,t is therefore fairl!
useless to spea$ for e-ample of /D:: @.$g *A#3/ or even /E00 @.$g/. ,f the maps indicate
&000 @.$g *A#3, "e prepared to find in soundings mostl! :00;&:00 @.$g, a wide margin
of at least :0F.
%. &'ega( Advection o) *!! hPa Geostrophic +orticit, -, the .!!/0!! hPa Ther'a"
Wind +ectors, *!! hPa #eight
his map uses the ren"erth method for estimating the resulting vertical motion
induced "! differential vorticit! advection and temperature advection, giving a
?ualitative picture of geostrophic vertical motions. ,t is different from model output
vertical motions 2which are influenced also "! convection itself4. )se to get a sense of
large scale lift and su"sidence. *ellular convection over sea often is a"le to maintain
itself even under su"sidence, if low level lapse rates are strong enough, "ut comma
clouds for e-ample would need geostrophic lift 2usuall! a vorticit! ma-imum4. ,t is
recommended to dou"le;chec$ the e-istence of ascent.descent with other geostrophic
vertical motion parameters for critical use.
0. Mid/tropospheric Potentia" +orticit, (1!!/*!! hPa$
)sed to highlight atmospheric processes in a different wa!. #V is a conserved ?uantit!
for adia"atic processes, e?uivalent to momentum. ,t can "e used to trace airmasses. he
tropopause is usuall! associated with 2 #V units, with lower #V "elow. 8trong vertical
motions can stir up the tropopause, such that high #V air enters the troposphere and is
"rought downwards. he presence of a strong #V anomal! in midlevels or lower
indicates either strong postfrontal su"sidence or a "u""le of mid;level cold air with
steep lapse rates and high vorticit!. , wonGt go deepl! into #V theor!, "ut for practical
use: strong upward motions can "e e-pected ahead of a #V ma-imum, in other words,
mid;level lapse rates will steepen and mid;level vorticit! generating upward motion in
the direction a #V ma-imum moves. 3speciall! the dar$ "lue and "e!ond needs
attention. he patterns seen in this map often correspond with the dar$ "ands in
satellite water vapour images 2intrusions of dr! air4.
1. Tho'pson inde2, Convective Precipitation, 3!! hPa #eight
he hompson thunderstorm inde- is an ancient inde-, from the times that ever!
calculation had to "e done "e hand from soundings. he inde- consists of = ,nde-
minus the Cifted ,nde-. he latter is simpl! the difference "etween the temperature a
parcel has at :00 h#a and its surrounding air, so a result of parcel theor!. he = ,nde- is
D:0 H dD:0 ; 2700 ; d7004 ;:00 and thus a sum with no meaning, including a lapse
rate, a low level dewpoint and a mid level relative humidit!. he fi-ed levels ma$e this
ph!sicall! mean something different on high plains than at sea level. <ut it came out
"est in a comparison stud! of a num"er of cases with 8+CO*s 2lightning reports4 , did
almost &0 !ears ago. he 700 h#a moisture factor in it can "e useful for the reason that it
serves to indirectl! include a source of lift, as usuall! it is more humid in the mid levels
around fronts. , strongl! suggest using parcel theor! parameters though.
5hat to use the map for is mainl! a view of standard output 6+8 convective
precipitation... which actuall! is often fairl! relia"le although it ma! overreact in case
the evapo;transpiration pro"lem 2wea$ wind, strong insolation4 shows up. ,t ma!
underestimate potential for storms in areas with deep dr! "oundar! la!ers.
. E4ui"i-riu' Leve" Te'perature ('ost unsta-"e parce"$
A ver! useful map in cases of near;neutral environments of ver! low *A#3, read:
mostl! in the winter half !ear. *onvective cells need to have updrafts reaching
sufficientl! into the mi-ed;phase temperature region 2usuall! ;&0 to ;'0 degrees
*elsius4, where ice particles in the cloud co;e-ist with li?uid water droplets, in order for
the non;inductive charging process to "e effective. he e?uili"rium level is where the
parcel will "e at the same temperature as the environment after its free convection. ,t
will e-perience an increasingl! negative "uo!anc! force as it ascends further and will
slow down. his often corresponds with levels near the tropopause, "ut ma! also "e an
inversion lower in the troposhere. he map indicates the temperature, not the height.
hunder ma! "e possi"le with 3C temperatures lower than ;&0 degrees, and "ecomes
li$el! especiall! "e!ond ;'0 degrees. ,n winter time the corresponding heights of the
cloud tops is lower and the moisture content lower as well, with wea$er updrafts so the
electrification process is less effective.
,n the summer over large areas parcels can reach ver! cold temperatures and other
indicators ma! "e more useful to loo$ at. Bowever, for the calculation the /"est la!er/ is
used 2i.e. the level with the highest theta;e parcel "elow (00 h#a4, and this map is useful
in identif!ing elevated convection when %C parcel methods do not show potential.
Attention: there is currentl! no map to chec$ the C+* of an elevated parcel.
*. Li)ting Condensation Leve", L5C/LCL di))erence
he height of the C*C of a 0;& $m mi-ed parcel is plotted as "ac$ground. his C*C is
similar to the *onvective *ondensation Cevel, i.e. the cloud "ase height that
cumuliform clouds ma! have. ,t relates strongl! to the relative humidit! of the
"oundar! la!er, so ver! low heights ma! associate with low clouds or fog during the
night 2and in "ad cases persist during the da! and "loc$ solar heating re?uired for
storms4.
Bigh C*C heights can enhance down"urst winds "ecause the downdraft air will "e
colder relative to the surrounding air, the negative "uo!canc! accelerating downward
speeds. Bigh C*Cs 2I2000 m4 ma! also indicate more difficult! for "eginning
convection to sustain itself, due to entrainment in the dr! environment. Cow C*C
heights 2under &000 meters4 are favoura"le for tornadoes, as was found "! 8#*, the
reasons of which have not "een full! e-plained, "ut involve downdraft;updraft
"uo!anc! processes.
he C+* 2Cevel of +ree *onvection4 is the level "elow which a 0;& $m mi-ed parcel
when lifted is colder than its environment, and normall! wants to return to where it
came from. A ver! strong source of low;level lift ma! push a parcel to the C+*, so that
it "ecomes warmer 2lighter4 than the surrounding air and e-perience an upward force.
%ore common is that the capping warm la!er is adia"aticall! lifted and removed, or
that heating and mi-ing from "elow will !ield a higher C*C and a lower C+* 2the
convective temperature concept4.
,n the form of vectors, the difference "etween the cloud "ase and the Cevel of +ree
*onvection is drawn. 9o vector means no %C*A#3 present. 8mall vectors indicate
small C+*;C*C differences, so that there is almost no e-tra heating or forcing re?uired
for initiation of convection. Conger vectors re?uire more, and thic$ vectors ma! indicate
too much capping inhi"iting the formation of thunderstorms. Along the dr!line in the
)8A 6reat #lains, the gradient ma! "e so steep that onl! a few points with small C+*;
C*C are visi"le on the grid points of the model. At night, the C+*;C*C difference ma!
increase again, "ut usuall! alread! developed storms will persist for some time,
depending on moisture and storm;relative inflow a"ove the "oundar! la!er. ,n general,
the lower the C+*;C*C difference, the easier 2less forcing re?uired4 and earlier storms
develop. he same goes for lower C*Cs "ecause entrainment is less of a pro"lem.
9ote that "ecause the model adJusts its environment 2wea$ens lapse rates, lowers C*C4
as result of convection, the C+*;C*C difference ma! "ecome larger and ma! give a
counter;intuitive KcappedL impression where there is alread! convection. *hec$ this "!
loo$ing at the convective precipitation map.
3. !/0 6' MLCAPE, Spout inde2
0;' $m %C*A#3 2low;level *A#34 uses the 0;& $m mi-ed la!er parcel, "ut represents
the %C*A#3 present not all the wa! to the 3C, "ut onl! in the lowest three $ilometers
a"ove the surface. his indicates whether a parcel is a"le to accelerate rapidl! a"ove the
C+*. A low C+* and temperatures dropping rapidl! with height in the 0;' $m la!er
ma$e for a upward acceleration in this la!er, which is important especiall! for
tornadogenesis. he t!pe of generall! wea$ tornadoes 2+0;+&4 $nown as GspoutsG
2landspouts, waterspouts4 happen "! stretching of vorticit! with a vertical a-is into an
updraft. his process is enhanced "! vertical acceleration 2the same mechanism as the
whirl when draining water from a "athtu"4. #rere?uisite is a source of vertical vorticit!
and convergence, such as wind shift lines. ,n addition it seems important that low;level
winds are not too strong, otherwise tur"ulence ma! distur" this process. 8teep near;
surface lapse rates will also help 2ne-t map4. %id.upper level cold pools and wea$
troughs are notorious for out"rea$s of spouts. he green e-perimental composite inde-
incorporates these factors, "ut it is not cali"rated or tested, and ma! not alwa!s "e
useful.
8imilarl!, tornadoes can "e generated "! tilting of low;level vorticit! with a horizontal
a-is 2strong low;level shear4 into the vertical "! a strong updraft and ma! also profit
from stronger 0;' $m *A#3.
7. Te'perature Lapse 8ate( !/!! ' AGL
he temperature difference "etween the surface 2not 2 meters4 and :00 m a"ove
ground. his map contains useful information a"out the relative temperature of the air
compared to the surface over which it flows. he dr!;adia"atic lapse rate is a"out &0;&&
=elvin decrease per $ilometer, while :;( degrees decrease per $ilometer is moist;
adia"atic. Cower values indicate inversions. Values higher than && =.$m indicate
superadia"atic conditions which necessaril! impl! tur"ulent mi-ing as surface parcels
have alread! positive "uo!anc! with the minimal lift. his is favoura"le for vertical
vorte- stretching such as dust devils and spouts.
One ma! often easil! infer which process is responsi"le for steep or inverted lapse rates.
Carge "odies of water do not change temperature ver! ?uic$l!, so ver! steep lapse rates
will mostl! "e the result of advection of relativel! cold air over the surface. 8imilarl!,
inverted lapse rates indicate strong warm air advection over the water surface. Cand, on
the other hand, responds ?uic$l! to radiative processes. *ontrasts "etween land and
adJacent water surfaces ma! induce mesoscale circulations li$e land.sea "reeze. Capse
rates increase ?uic$l! during the afternoon when the sun shines, while in the evening a
ground inversion forms. his ma$es it possi"le to evaluate if the model produces
cloudiness that ma! inhi"it heating of the "oundar! la!er during the da!, or reflect of
long wave radiation to earth at night 2I> =.$m over land4, ma$ing it a useful map if also
if !ou need to $now possi"ilities for clear s$ies at night for astronomical o"servations or
sprites.
.. Te'perature Lapse 8ate( %!!!/1!!! ' AGL
his somewhat ar"itraril! chosen la!er for mid;level lapse rates is often used to identif!
an important contri"utor to *A#3, independentl! of moisture availa"ilit!. ,n maritime
polar airmasses "ehind cold fronts it generall! indicates values over ( =.$m. %ore
e?uatorward it often is capa"le of defining the edge of deep convection rather well,
where su"sidence esta"lishes an inversion. 8hallow convection ma! still occur in these
regions.
3levated and dr! regions such as the 8panish #lateau and the 8ahara often create a
deep dr! la!er with steep lapse rates, that can "e advected awa! into western 3urope
2e.g. 8panish #lume4. On the 6reat #lains in the )8A, ver! steep lapse rates can "e seen
developing over the Roc$! mountains and western Bigh #lains and "eing transported
eastward over a ver! moist airmass, creating Gloaded gunG soundings. Ver! steep lapse
rates 2I7 =.$m4 in this la!er in warm airmasses are capa"le to create a GfatG *A#3,
allowing for rapid upward acceleration, and is often associated with large hail and
more indirectl! with severe down"urst winds. 9eutral lapse rates 2:;( =.$m4 indicate
less e-citing conditions, often found in saturated frontal regions. 9ote that 2000 and
>000 m temperatures are advected "! different winds, so the lapse rate itself does not
alwa!s advect nicel! and can Just pop up and disappear out of nowhere.
1!. 3!! hPa Theta/e, Strea'"ines (convergence and divergence$
11. !/1 6' Theta/e, 1! ' Strea'"ines (convergence and divergence$
heta;e is the 3?uivalent #otential emperature. ,t is determined on a 8$ew; diagram
"! lifting a parcel to its C*C, then removing adia"aticall! all moisture from it "!
following the moist;adia"at upward and read its potential temperature at &000 h#a via
the dr!;adia"at. Actuall! it is e?uivalent to the 5et;"ul" #otential emperature 2theta;
w or 5<#4, the latter is the moist;adia"at from the C*C followed downward to &000
h#a. <oth are displa!ed, theta;e in colours and theta;w in contours.
he advantage of theta;e over normal temperatures is that the parameter is conserved
in adia"atic processes, meaning that "ringing air to a higher or lower level does not
change its value. As different origins of airmasses largel! determine their own theta;e,
one can use this parameter as a mar$er. +ronts are easil! seen as steep gradients in
theta;e. he "oundar! la!er theta;e shows where fronts are located near the surface,
while 700 h#a theta;e shows where the! are near the '000 m level. ,n winter it occurs
often that warm fronts do not penetrate into the heav!, cold airmass near the surface.
he! are however visi"le at the 700 h#a la!er.
he maps can "e used to determine if the airmass is potentiall! unsta"le, which occurs
often in split cold fronts. 5hen the values at 700 h#a are lower than in the 0;& $m la!er
2note this ma! not wor$ over ver! elevated grounds4, lifting the la!er enough ma!
increase the lapse rates and cause development of *A#3. 5hile the model should in
principle "e a"le to compute all of this "! itself and produce *A#3, it occurs regularl!
that strongl! forced narrow convective lines develop at su";grid scale 2use also the #V
map4.
<oth maps feature streamlines. he colour indicates ?ualitativel! the presence of
convergence 2!ellow to red4 and divergence 2light "lue to purple4. ,n summer
convection cases, one can consider low;level convergence in plumes of high theta;e as
the most useful indicator of where thunderstorms will develop. *onvergence near the
surface must result in ascending motion of air and wor$s as trigger for convection.
Onl! in cases of ver! small C+*;C*C difference storms ma! also develop outside such
convergence regions. At the 700 h#a level !ou ma! rather want to see divergent 2or
neutral4 winds in the same region, as a reaction to low;level convergence. his couplet
ma! "e somewhat horizontall! displaced. *onvergence at the 700 h#a level mostl!
indicates downward motion. 7iurnal c!cles of sea "reeze and mountain circulations
can often "e discovered.
he com"ination of the two streamline fields allows !ou to inspect directional
windshear.
1%. !/1 6' average Mi2ing 8atio, !/1 6' average 9ind strea'"ines ('oisture
advection$
%i-ing ratio is another word for a"solute moisture content and is e-pressed in grams of
water vapour per $ilogram of dr! air. A directl! related parameter is the dewpoint
temperature. Bowever a dewpoint temperature cannot "e mi-ed verticall!. %i-ing
ratio is conserved for vertical motions until condensation occurs. his parameter is
easil! compared with o"served soundings "! ta$ing the average over the lowest
$ilometer on a 8$ew; diagram, useful to see if the model is on trac$ with its moisture
predictions, after all it is the source of the *A#3 calculations. he streamlines show
colours that tell where there is advection of moister or drier air, stressing gradients that
are advected perpendicular to the wind.
his map displa!s the dr!line in the )nited 8tates much "etter than heta;e.
10. :e"ta Theta/E, Convective Gust, Co"d Poo" Strength (T%' /Tdo9ndra)t$
he parameters in this map are somewhat e-perimental. 7elta;theta;e 2thic$ lines, if
present4 is the difference "etween the "oundar! la!er theta;e 2the moist adia"at used
for *A#34 and the lowest theta;e found in the mid levels 2under >00 h#a4. he drier and
colder the mid levels, and the more warmer.more unsta"le the "oundar! la!er parcel,
the stronger updrafts and downdrafts and hence the chance of severe convective gusts.
3ven micro"ursts 2e-treme local down"ursts4 are possi"le especiall! with values a"ove
20 = 2At$ins and 5a$imoto, &EE&4.
he convective gust speed in shaded colours is simpl! the pressure;weighted average
of surface to 700 h#a winds, and is intended to give an indication what to e-pect when
a downdraft digs down through a la!er of high winds, "ringing the momentum down
to the surface. ,t ma! alread! "e ver! wind!, "ut normall! over land the ratio "etween
gust speed and &0 minute average winds does not e-ceed &.7 or so 2&.> over sea4 with
some margin. A gust significantl! enhanced "! deep convection could well !ield higher
gust factors 2one can often use 8M9O# or %3AR to determine this4.
*old #ool 8trength is a parameter that ta$es the lowest theta;e from the mid;levels and
"rings it to the surface, where it is compared to the 2m temperature. One ma! interpret
this as the worst temperature drop that can "e e-perienced from thunderstorm outflow
2if the model did not miss colder theta;e levels4. ,n practice this ma! often "e less
dramatic. #h!sicall! it corresponds with the negative "uo!anc! of the downdraft into
the "oundar! la!er. A relativel! cold downdraft will propagate awa! from the
thunderstorm with a higher storm;relative speed 2stronger gusts4. ,t ma! re?uire strong
low level storm;relative winds to prevent the storm from "eing cut off from its moisture
source. Values higher than &0 degrees are a good signal for strong gusts. Cow values
indicate an almost neutral profile. At night and when convection has alread! produced
precipitation in the model this parameter ma! not "e representative.
11. !/* 6' Shear, !/1 6' Shear, Signi)icant Tornado Para'eter
7ispla!ed in $nots 2ma! change this to m.s4, the length of the vector difference 2"ul$
vertical shear vector4 of the winds at ( $m and & $m a"ove ground level with the &0 m
wind. hese are often called Gdeep la!er shearG and Glow level shearG, respectivel!. he
chosen levels originate from those included in American studies, and their relation to
severe weather is well documented. he wa! these are plotted reflects the commonl!
cited GthresholdG levels, although there is some margin. 7eep la!er shear around 20 $ts
2&0 m.s, wea$ to moderate4 is often sufficient to sustain redevelopment of new cells at
outflow "oundaries ne-t to older cells, and support multicell storms and mesoscale
convective s!stems 2%*84, the latter especiall! when sufficient d!namic forcing is
present. %ore shear will cause a gradual transition from discrete 2stepwise4 renewing
cell growth to more stead!;state storms, with the downdraft less interfering with the
updraft so that cells can live longer. '0 $ts 2&: m.s4 or more will usuall! lead to prett!
well organised storms with wea$l! supercellular characteristics, and capa"le of
producing large hail. )suall! >0 $ts 220 m.s4 is ta$en as threshold value for supercells,
meaning that the storm is a"le to develop and sustain a rotating updraft. 8upercells are
ver! capa"le of producing large hail 2I2 cm4, severe downdrafts and tornadoes.
6enerall!, the product of *A#3 and 0;( $m shear correlates well with increasing
pro"a"ilit! of the full spectrum of severe weather from thunderstorms.
Cow level shear over 20;2: $ts 2&0;&: m.s4 is favoura"le for tornadogenesis, as it
represents horizontal vorticit! that can "e tilted into the vertical "! strong updrafts.
Additionall!, an %*8 in a high 0;& $m shear environment ma! tend to produce "owing
segments which are capa"le of causing concentrated damaging winds.
8ignificant ornado #arameter is a composite inde- "ased on deep la!er and low level
shear, *A#3, *,9 and C*C height. ,t highlights regions where these ingredients for
tornadoes come together most, although it does not tell which necessar! ingredient ma!
"e lac$ing most. *omposite indices cannot replace a detailed anal!sis, "ut serve well as
an alert to the forecaster.
1. !/0 6' Stor'/re"ative Environ'enta" #e"icit,, Superce"" Co'posite Para'eter,
;un6ers Stor' Motion
,n addition to good 0;( $m shear, it is favoura"le for development of rotating updrafts
to have a se?uence of wind shear vectors over small la!ers turning cloc$wise with
height. his results in a curved hodograph, the line that connects the arrow heads of the
wind vectors of a vertical profile when presented in a horizontal plane. *urved
hodographs are also possi"le with at!pical vertical wind profiles, so it is much easier to
see this in hodograph plots than from the wind "ar"s adJacent to a sounding.
,n a Cagrangian sense of motion, a storm is affected "! its surrounding winds. Cow
level storm;relative winds are ingested into the updraft. 3ach small la!er of vertical
shear "ears horizontal vorticit!, which is ingested and tilted into the vertical, increasing
the total rotation of an updraft. he surface on a hodograph diagram swapped out
"etween the hodograph line connecting the 0;' $m winds and the storm motion vector
is e?uivalent to the rotation that is gained. ,t will follow that a storm motion following
the hodograph line will not gain much rotation, "ut a deviant motion to the right of the
hodograph ma!. +or a more complete discussion refer to the %et3d module. ,n
practice, a straight, sufficientl! long hodograph 2e.g. >0 $ts 0;( $m shear4 ma! produce
"oth left;moving and right;moving supercell storms 2as the downdraft ma! force cells
to o"tain a deviant motion: split cells4, while a cloc$wise;curved hodograph favours
right;moving supercell storms. he updraft is forced "! non;h!drostatic vertical
pressure gradient forces to occur to the warm side of the hodograph.
8upercells often are a"le to develop when 0;' $m 8R3B is greater than &:0 m
2
.s
2
, while
also the chance for tornadoes increases with larger 8R3B. he 8upercell *omposite
#arameter consists of 8R3B, <ul$ Richardson 8hear and %C*A#3 and indicates where
supercell potential is highest. ,t is however ver! sensitive to %C*A#3 and does not
include the degree of capping that could prevent storm development.
Veering winds with height are also a sign of temperature advection. A windshear
vector over a la!er represents the thermal wind, which "lows parallel to thic$ness lines
with the warm air to the right. 5arm air advection in the low levels and strong
temperature gradients favour higher 8R3B. ,n some cases this ma! inhi"it surface;
"ased convection "! a capping la!er of warm air.
1*. Stor'/re"ative Moisture 5"o9 and Mid<=pper 5"o9
+or areas with a Cifted ,nde- lower than 2 and 2;$m Cifted ,nde- less than D degrees
2unsta"le and not too much capped4, this somewhat e-perimental map displa!s 0;2 $m
storm;relative moisture flow. ,t is the average mi-ing ratio 2g water.$g dr! air4
transported "! the difference vector of the lowest 2 $m and the storm motion. he
parameter represents the flu- of water vapour into the storm and has the units g.m
2
.s.
Bigher mi-ing ratios and stronger low;level storm;relative winds "oth contri"ute to
higher values. he parameter has not "een included in an! studies so far, "ut m!
o"servations suggest the warmer colours indeed to "e more often associated with large
hail events and development of mesoscale convective s!stems. 2note: another version
ma! "e invented using column;integrated water content instead of an average mi-ing
ratio value, it would then have the units $g.m.s4
he storm;relative mid.upper level flow is displa!ed ?ualitativel! on vectors 2the
length has a fi-ed scale4. Carger vectors ma! impl! "etter evacuation of precipitation
out of the updraft, and therefore a potentiall! longer lived storm. here ma! "e some
clues for supercell t!pe gained from this 2low;precipitation stronger, high;precipitation
wea$er mid.upper flow4. he vectors point in the direction the "ul$ of the anvil would
"low to.
,n some occasions, 6+8 shows strongl! diverging upper 8R wind vectors. his is a good
signal the model has produced a large convective s!stem with mesoscale updrafts
2confirm with convective precipitation4.
+inall!, this map can "e used as !et another alternative wa! to determine the presence
of deep insta"ilit!, "ecause it is onl! plotted where Cifted ,nde- is smaller than 2.
13. 1/7 6' Shear, ICAPE and ICI>
his map is convenient to Judge where shear crosses areas of insta"ilit!. he &;D $m
"ul$ shear vector is another version of deep la!er shear, "ut e-cludes the 0;& $m la!er.
his can "e of use "esides the 0;(.0;& $m shear map, especiall! in cases when the
hodograph is straight and 0;& $m shear strong and thus part of the 0;( $m shear. ,t then
ma$es sense to loo$ what amount of shear is availa"le a"ove & $m. he D $m level is
found to "e of more value than ( $m "! <un$ers et al. 2200(4 in discriminating "etween
long; versus short;lived supercells.
,*A#3 stands for ,ntegrated *A#3, and has the units @.m
2
, not @.$g. ,t was first defined
"! %apes 2&EE'4 as the sum of *A#3Ndp.g for all parcels in a column which have
*A#3I0. his ma$es it independent of the choice of parcel. ,nstead, a deeper la!er of
parcels that have *A#3 gives higher values for the same *A#3 than if onl! a shallow
la!er has *A#3. +or e-ample, a &00 h#a thic$ la!er giving :00 @.$g *A#3 will result in
the same ,*A#3 value as a shallower :0 h#a la!er of &000 @.$g 2a"out :00 $@.m
2
4. he
parameter is plotted e-perimentall!, as its advantage over other versions of *A#3 in
operational meteorolog! has never "een tested.
,t ma$es sense that if as a storm develops, all air from low levels will "e ta$en into the
storm, and the total energ! released "! all parcels in a column of one s?uare meter
diameter is ,*A#3. ,n practice, the map will loo$ ver! similar to %C*A#3, e-cept when
parcel la!er thic$ness differs over the area, or when elevated parcels over a sta"le
"oundar! la!er have *A#3, where %C*A#3 ma! "e a"sent. 8o, this parameter has
characteristics of "oth %C*A#3 and %)*A#3.
8imilarl!, ,*,9 is the integrated negative "uo!anc! counterpart, a sum of all *,9 of all
parcels in a column that have positive *A#3. his is topped in this implementation at
(00 h#a 2and parcels to 700 h#a due for computing resource reasons4. ,n the map, the
smallest vectors indicate ver! small ,*,9 sums, while larger and thic$er vectors impl!
higher ,*,9. <ecause this is a column value, this ma! mean that lower parcels have *,9
while higher parcels not necessaril! have *,9 2use caution in case of elevated
insta"ilit!4. Bowever, the thic$er the la!er of *A#3I0 parcels with *,9, and the
stronger the inversion causing the *,9, the higher the value and total resistance to
lifting.
An environment with high ,*A#3 2especiall! greater than &000 $@.m
2
4 is potentiall!
a"le to free a lot of energ! from a deep la!er and ma! sustain storms for a long time,
while high ,*,9 indicates the total resistance to releasing this energ!. )se in
com"ination with )ncapped Ca!er 7epth, %C*A#3, %);3C, and C+*;C*C maps.
17. =ncapped La,er :epth, !/% 6' :eep Convergence, 1/1 6' Shear +ectors
Related to ,*A#3 in the previous map, )ncapped Ca!er 7epth is an integrated
parameter that shows how deep of a la!er in a column through the lower troposphere
contain parcels with *A#3 greater than :0 @.$g and *,9 less than :0 @.$g. haven%t seen
this parameter mentioned or used before, so please refer to this document and contact me if you
intend to include it in a study.
,n other words, it shows the integrated depth of all uncapped parcels. Cow values
2"lue4 indicate that onl! a shallow la!er is capa"le of releasing *A#3 to form a
thunderstorm, whereas high values 2red4 indicate *A#3 can "e released from an! level
in the lowest ';> $ilometers. he pro"a"ilit! of thunderstorms indeed appears to
increase with )ncapped Ca!er 7epth. Also the persistence of storms after nightfall,
when *A#3 "ecomes more elevated, can "e forecast "etter with this parameter than an!
other , have seen so far. he position and coverage of storms is generall! ver! well
indicated "! this parameter, it wor$s in m! e-perience "etter than either *A#3 or 6+8
convective precipitation rate.
7eep convergence is a useful addition to the map lineup. ,t shows regions of mesoscale
ascent, which are sometimes more and sometimes less esta"lished than convergence of
the &0 meter wind. ,t occasionall! shows e-panding rings of deep convergence when
6+8 "lows itself up into a "ig convective s!stem. Regions of convergence, s!noptic scale
lift and )ncapped Ca!er 7epth are good indicators for storm development.
&;> $m shear vectors are supplied ?ualitativel!, onl! when larger than 2.: m.s per
vertical $ilometer, the e?uivalent of &: m.s shear over 0;( $m, often used as
appro-imate minimum threshold for the more severe multicell and supercell storms.
O Oscar van der Velde, 2007
http:..www.lightningwizard.com
http:..lightningwizard.estofe-.org