One of our goals this season has been to learn more about the game of baseball.

This article has some

excellent information in it for both hitters and pitchers. I have underlined some of the more important
things....

Enjoy
Coach Satunas
____________________________________

The count of counting counts

Story Highlights
The deeper you delve into the count, the more you can learn about the game
Once a batter has two strikes, his averages go way down
The most important pitch of an at-bat may well be the third pitch

When I was young, an old baseball scout told me there were two tricks to looking like the smartest
baseball fan in the crowd. The first, he said, was always watching the outfielder after a fly ball was hit.
This will tell you how well the ball is really hit. If you see the outfielder racing back, yes, the ball was hit
well. If you see him standing in place, no, the ball was not hit well. This, he said, would keep you from
screaming madly on routine fly balls and basically looking like a yutz.

The second thing he told me was this: Always watch the count. He said that the whole secret of baseball,
all the mysteries, all the intrigue, all the hesitant swings, all the home run blasts, all the perfect pitches on
the outside corner ... all of them can be anticipated and appreciated by simply following the count*.

* I got a similar lesson from an old big league pitcher, Al Fitzmorris. He began his career as an outfielder
and a hitter, and that didn't work out too well for him. So he became a pitcher, and a successful one. He
won 77 games in the big league with, as he calls it, limited stuff. But Fitz never stopped wanting to be a
hitter, and years after his career ended he summed up his stalled hitting career this way: "I would have
been fine if I could have started every at-bat with a 3-1 count."

There are a few simple tricks that most baseball fans innately use when following the count. Everyone
knows that a 3-1 count is good for hitters -- "Big pitch coming here," is what announcers usually say --
and everyone knows that pitchers have a big advantage when the count is 1-2 ("Got him in the hole").
Everyone knows that batters need a green light to swing 3-0, and pitchers don't want to throw anything
too good on 0-2, and that the runners may be going on a full count.

But, the scout told me, the deeper you delve into the count, the more you can learn about this great
game. And so, I decided to delve deep. Real deep. Deeper than any sensible person would delve. I used
the wonderful baseballreference.com to break down every count combination this decade -- 2000-2008.
And I tried (at times unsuccessfully) to see what I could learn from these combinations.

I should say, for those of you scoring at home, that there have been 1,690,302 action pitches this decade
(not counting the start of the 2009 season). By action pitch, I mean pitch where something happened: Hit,
walk, error, hit-by-pitch, sacrifice, strikeout, groundout, flyout, lineout and every other goofy thing you
might see on the APBA unusual play charts*.

*Which I understand are gone now ... I never really played APBA Baseball, so I don't know. But I always
liked the concept of an unusual plays chart. I want one of those for my life.

So here's what follows: The count, the percentage of the time that count is the action pitch and what
batters hit on that pitch (the basic batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage). The
numbers, as I say later, are a bit misleading, but they still can give you a good sense for how the game
works.

Here we go:
First pitch
Action pitch: 12.5% of the time -- one out of every eight at-bats
Batters hit: .338/.344/.547

There is probably more grumbling at the park about batters swinging at the first pitch of an at-bat than any
other time. The Kansas City Royals once had a prospective owner meet with manager Tony Muser and
suggest to him that his batters needed to stop swinging at the first pitch. This, of course, is ludicrous.
About one of out every five home runs hit in the game are hit on the first pitch of an at-bat.

Then again, about one out of every five double play grounders you will see are also hit on the first
pitch. And that's why there are so many complaints.

To get this out of the way: The offensive numbers listed above -- all the numbers here -- can be
misleading because they only count balls that were HIT IN PLAY. Foul balls do not count. Swings and
misses do not count (except when there are two strikes). Pitches that are called balls do not count (except
when there are three balls). And so on. So the batting averages are naturally going to be much less with
two strikes. And on-base percentages are going to be much higher with three balls.

Still, there are some cool things to see. There are real advantages, for instance, for batters who put
the ball in play early in the count. Once they get two strikes on them, the averages go way down.

Here's a statistic you can ponder if you like:

OPS for batters putting the first pitch in play: .891

OPS for batters who do not put first pitch in play: .739

So, for someone to decide to never swing at the first pitch ... no, that's probably not the best
strategy.

0-1 count
Action pitch: 9% of the time -- one out of every 11 at-bats
Batters hit: .317/.326/.485

Well, this was a bit of a surprise to me: Batters would hit quite well when behind one strike. And this gets
into what I was saying about hitting early in the count: As you can see, there is not a drastic difference
if the batter is hitting behind 0-1 or ahead 1-0.

1-0 count
Action pitch: 7.6% of the time -- one out of every 13 at-bats
Batters hit: .339/.340/.563

See? Batters do hit with a bit more power when ahead 1-0 -- they are also a little bit less aggressive -- but
the point here is that the game does not shift dramatically to the pitcher until he gets two strikes on a
batter. You always hear people say how important it is to get that first-pitch strike ... and it is
hugely important. But getting that second strike is what turns an at-bat around.

0-2 count
Action pitch: 7.7% of the time -- one out of every 13 at-bats
Batters hit: .162/.173/.236

Now you can see the pitcher taking control. There are different philosophies about what to do with an 0-2
pitch. There are some pitching coaches and pitchers who think that this is absolutely the time to go for the
strikeout pitch ... the nasty slider tailing away, the split-fingered fastball in the dirt, the fastball up around
the eyes. But there are others -- and I tend to agree with this -- who think that batters are so defensive at
0-2, that this is perfect time to go get them with a pitch over the plate (especially with pitch counts being
SO important in today's game).
This might be the most amazing statistic in this whole bit: Batters on an 0-2 count hit home runs once
every 79 at-bats.*

* My favorite pitcher, Greg Maddux, gave up 11 home runs in his entire career 0-2 -- that's in more
than 1,600 at-bats. No, he did not like wasting pitches. Here's another good Maddux statistic: He
only walked 45 batters in his entire career after getting ahead 0-2. Maddux had a 32-1 strikeout-to-
walk ratio after he got ahead 0-2.

2-0 count

Action pitch: 2.7% of the time -- one out of every 37 at-bats

Batters hit: 351/.351/.625

Well, this is a interesting situation ... batters very, very rarely put the ball in play on a 2-0 count. In fact,
batters don't put the ball in play much more on a 2-0 count than they do on a 3-0 count. When they
connect, though, they do connect hard ... batters bang home runs once out of every 16 at-bats.

And you know, if I was a batting coach, I would want my batters to be a bit more aggressive on 2-
0. Because here's something else ... pitchers only very, very rarely hit a batter with the count 2-0
(one out of every 179 or so at-bats). That tells me they are simply looking to get a pitch over the
plate to get back into the count. It sure seems to me that 2-0 is an underutilized opportunity for
hitters.

1-1 count
Action pitch: 8.8% of the time -- one out of every 11 at-bats
Batters hit: .325/.330/.512

This is more or less a repeat of the first pitch. I have heard scouts and players say that, generally
speaking, the most important pitch of the at-bat is the third pitch. And there does seem some truth
to that. Most of the time (roughly 54% of the time), batters face a 1-1 count going into the third pitch. And
the next pitch will, pretty often, determine the fate of the pitcher and the batter. Look what happens if a
pitcher gets a strike:

1-2 count
Action pitch: 13.6% of the time -- one out of every 7 at-bats
Batters hit: .177/.185/.263

Yes, pitchers are dominant in the 1-2 count. And this is actually the most common situation in
baseball ... a 1-2 count action pitch. And the batter is all but helpless. But when the third pitch is a
ball ...

2-1 count
Action pitch: 5.6% of the time -- one out of every 18 at-bats
Batters hit: .337/.338/.554

Yeah, that's a sizable difference. Batters hit 160 points better and slug twice as much when that
third pitch is a ball rather than a strike. Batters may not know these numbers, but they
instinctively know how much their chances go up when the count goes to 2-1.

Here's a fun experiment: Next time you're at a game, watch the batter's reaction when the count goes
from 1-1 to 1-2. They will, often, hit their bats with their hands or kick at the dirt or gripe at the umpire. I've
never counted but I would bet that batters visibly react more than half the time.

3-0 count
Action pitch: 2.4% of the time -- one of out every 42 at-bats
Batters hit: .390/.958/.780

A few facts about the 3-0 pitch.

1. Batters put the ball in play on 3-0 only about 7% of the time. In fact, over the course of a season, you
will only see batters put the ball in play about 300 times on 3-0 ... that's about 10 times per team, per
season. it does seem like in today's game lots of batters get the green light on 3-0, but the numbers say
that you really don't see them hit the ball on 3-0 very much.

2. When you DO see them hit it, there's a good chance you will see them hit it a long way. Batters hit 3-0
homers roughly one out of every 10 at-bats.

3. Jim Thome, in his long career, has only put the ball in play 58 times on 3-0. He has hit SIXTEEN home
runs. For the record, that's one homer per every 3.6 at-bats.

4. Or how about Mike Piazza. In his whole career he only put the ball in play FOUR TIMES on 3-0. That's
all. Four times. Apparently nobody was throwing Piazza a good pitch 3-0. And that was a good idea: Two
of them were home runs.

5. Batters almost never get hit on the 3-0 pitch -- one out of every 640 plate appearances.

6. Very, very few base runners try to steal on the 3-0 pitch, for obvious reasons, but those that do
are ultra-successful -- 89%. What's interesting is that the 3-1 pitch -- which has conventionally
been called the perfect pitch to steal on -- is anything but: Only 61% of base stealers are
successful on 3-1.

2-2 count
Action pitch: 12.9% of the time -- one out of every 8 at-bats
Batters hit: .194/.199/.299

You will often hear announcer say "He evened the count at 2-2." But there is nothing really even about a
2-2 count. The pitcher is still firmly in control. If a pitcher consistently can make it so the action
pitch is always 0-2, 1-2 or 2-2, he will do very nicely for himself and make quite a lot of money.

3-1 count
Action pitch: 4.9% of the time -- one out of every 20 at-bats
Batters hit: .355/.691/.638

Well, here is the ultimate hitter's pitch ... I've called a few home runs over the years, wowing
friends and impressing strangers, but it's really not that hard. When you see a good hitter at the
plate (or a lousy pitcher on the mound) and a 3-1 count, go ahead, make the call. If you want to play
the 3-1 homer game yourself ... here are a few good players to consider:

Josh Hamilton: .611/.833/1.167

Chase Utley: .444/.713/.852
Adam Dunn: .392/.777/.908
Alfonso Soriano: .435/.694/.848
Jermaine Dye: .406/.656/.767

Full count
Action pitch: 12.3% of the time -- one out of every 8 at-bats
Batters hit: .229/.468/.381

A couple things interest me here. One, I find it interesting that one out of every eight or so at-bats
goes to a full-count. That seems like a lot to me ... that means you should see, seven to 10 full
counts every single night. I wonder if that number has gone up through the years. I have no idea how to
find out.

Also, it really is telling -- again and again -- that hitters really do swing defensively with two strikes. In
total, with two strikes, batters hit .190/.257/.293.
I think that's one of the takeaway as a baseball fan. Pitchers do not (and should not) give up many
two-strike hits. And they certainly should not give up two-strike extra base hits.

Another takeaway is that until the pitcher gets two strikes, the advantage* is with the hitter.
Batters hit .334 and slug almost .600 when not facing two strikes.

* Of course, it's tricky when you say the hitter has an advantage ... even Ted Williams, the purest hitter
who ever was, was retired more often than he reached base (his .482 on-base percentage is the best
ever, but it means he also had a .518 out percentage). But this is something that's tricky about baseball --
pitchers always have an advantage. You will hear announces say all the time: "This just goes to show you
that good pitching beats good hitting." I have no idea what this means ... it is literally true, but bad pitching
also beats good hitting. Pitching beats hitting. That's the game. That's why even when a manager makes
what seems an obviously dumb pitching move, it is still likely to work.**

** This "still likely to work" rule is not in effect when it comes to Royals manager Trey Hillman, who has
now gone EIGHT DAYS since pitching Joakim Soria. EIGHT DAYS. Maybe he's saving Soria for private
functions, birthday parties, bar mitzvahs and so on.

And the last takeaway is this: I spent way, way too much time on this.

Joe Posnanski is a columnist for the Kansas City Star and the author of joeposnanski.com.