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can be made at a demographic measures like "age, sex, material stutes, where

people live"
♦♦♦-prevalence and incidence
the incidence measure of new episodes of illness arising in a population during
a specified period it can be measure as a rate
incidence rate =number of new cases over a period per year
population at risk for the time period during which cases collected

prevalence
prevalence of disease it's the number of people in a population that have the
disease "are case" either at a particular time
prevalence rate =no -of cases in a given time
population at risk during that time period
Type of prevalence
Period prevalence :number of existing cases of the disease x within a time periodxlOOO
average study population
Point prevalence :number of existing cases of the disease at a point in time x 1000
average study population

uses of prevalence and incidence rate


to measure the occurrence of condition where the onset of disease may be
gradual
the relation ship of prevalence and incidence
prevalence^ incidence x duration
measures of disease frequency
♦diagnosis depend on signs ,symptoms and test result
♦incidence measures of the number of new cases during a specific period
♦prevalence is a measure of the number of cases resent in a population at a
particular time or over a certain period
♦measures of disease intensity as prevalence and incidence
♦cumulative incidence rates are useful for disease that extend over a
reasonable period

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*-Crude ..specific and standardized rates
Usually made on the basis of
\-age,sex,social class
its by using demographic shape to describe the study
2-chang in population
through "death rate ,birth rate, life expectancy" and also death rate depend
on "age, sex, birth date ,place of residence ,cause of death"
its calculi as
crude mortality rate = (no-of death in specified period
average of total population during that period)+100
*-life expectancy ;its anther frequently used summery measure of the
health states of a population
Definition:
Life expectancy is the average number of years an individual of giving age
is going to live Life expectancy at Birth: The average number of year's
newborn infant would be expected to live
if health and living conditions at the time of its birth remained the
same throughout its life
*Life expectancy in Egypt is progressively increasing by time , and is
more for females than males.
*-case fatality :it's a measure of the severity of a disease in terms of
death
specific death rate be :No, of death in each age /sex of group in a period
average number of people in age/sex population
mortality in early childhood rate :No ,of death of infant less than lyear
No of live birth in year
Morbidity :it is the state of being diseased and its measurement
Is important in long -term or disability condition
The morbidity classification
1-impairment (organ loss, failure)

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2-disability (person based in ability to certain things)
3-hand caps (social based inability to fulfill function)
Disability can have varying severity ,which will be affected by
environmental factors

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References
*- Vetter, Norman , MD FFHM, Matthews Jan MCcPHD [Harcourt

Puplishing Limited 1999 J Epidemiology andPuplic HealthMedicine

*-Thomas c, TImereck, phd ,[1998] An Introduction Epidemiology

Edition Second

*-W-Babra-Spradley, R.N,M.N-London,England[1990]Communty

Health Nursing-3r Edition

*- Chain of Infection Explaination.htm

I *Lesson Jntroduction to Communicable Diseases (include

epidemiology) - WikiEducator.htm

'■
Monfia university

Faculty of nursing

Second semester

4/
CESUS OF POPULATION

Prepared by Safaa

Abd EL-monsef

Under super vision

Dr/ Inas Kasem


(2009)
Out line
1-Introduction
2-Definition
3-Census
4-Uses of population census
5-main objectives of The population and housing census
6-Sources of data
7-factorsaffecting change in population
8-Population census in Egypt
9-Life expectancy
10-Factor influence growth of population
11-The Causes of Rapid population growth
12-Hazarded of over population
13-Management of Overpopulation Problem:

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Census of population

Introduction
Population data are essential for defining and measuring public health
problems and the groups of people associated with them
Definition
Census
Is an enumeration of population that have the following characteristics
1 -each individual is enumerated separately
2-the characteristics of each individual are recorded separately
3-those enumerated reside in a precisely defined area
4-enumeration takes place within a defined and reasonably brief period
and in reference to a well defined time period
5-enumeration is repeated at regular intervals
- Census of population is the complete count of all residents, both
Filipinos include overseas workers ) and foreigners who have stayed or
are expected to stay for at least a year in the Philippines it also includes
gathering of basic information about each individual such as age, sex,
marital status, education, and other demographic characteristics
. Uses of population census
We can say that census data used for :
1- Identify community health need
2- Valuable assessment tool for the community health nurses taken
part in health planning for aggregates
3- Provide C.h.n with a better understanding of the community and
help identify specific areas that may warrant further epidemiologic
investigation
4- Give s profile of the characteristic features of population
5- Provides needed data for calculation of statistical indicator
required for:

*- Measurement of health, national demographic, socioeconomic and


other aspect.
*- Planning and evaluation of different national and community
programs (e.g. health, education, socioeconomic, and other) 6- Census
information is used in academic research and is sought by product
manufacturers and marketers who want to know the demographics
of potential consumers

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The methods of estimation of census:
There are two common methods for doing census A-de jure census: it
count individuals at their legal residence without regard to whether or not
they are physically at time the censuses taken B-De facto method
census: it counts individuals wherever they actually are on the day the
census is conducted (it is the method used in Egypt)
The population and housing census has five main objectives:
■ Enumeration of the population and households in the country.
■ Acquisition of demographic information used for calculating
population estimates.
■ Data collection and production of information for government
ministries and local authorities, for budgeting purposes.
■ Collection of socio-economic information on a large sample of people
in the population, which makes it possible to acquire data and information
on small, unique groups in the population.
. Production of information which serves bodies, organizations and
various other elements in the fields of education, the economy, business,
research, etc.

Sources of data
1-population- based surveys
-a survey differs from a census in that it is not an enumeration of
individuals and it need not include all members of the population
- Most surveys characterize in individuals separately rather than in groups
and the sample represent a precisely defined group of people from a
specific area
-in some survey the sample taken from the census
A-current population survey
Also called a series of national population based surveys
It is information describes the important characteristics of the national
population, such as [family composition -age -birth of children -
mobility, mortality status]
b- Health surveys
This surveys has five components
a- health care providers
b- hospital and surgical care
c- a ambulatory care
d- long term care
it provide data based on patient follow up .this surveys measure a
different aspect of health like physical measurement laboratory
testing, hospitalization

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c- Other surveys
1- Internationally like world fertility surveys and demographic and
health surveys
Collected data from many countries around the world, it focus on
interview responses from women in their childbearing years and based
on population samples of several 1000 women in each country .data
collection is confined to few months like population growth , life
expectancy
2-vital data [birth, death, marriage]
It is provides data for defining public health problems at almost every
level of society, including cities, countries, states
3- other sources like migration is an important determinate of
population size and distribution
Census information is often available to study internal migration and
evaluate its effects
4-demographic measures
The relation between health problems and the populations in which
they occur needs to be measured if the problems are to be controlled
and prevented
5-rates
Is a quotient in which time is an essential element and a distinct
relationship exists between the numerator and denominator
Types of rates
1 -crude rates
Is one in which all of the events that occurred in a given time and
population of the specific area at the mid point of that time period
comprises the denominator. It also contain an constant multiplier of
1000 like death rates
2-standardized rates
Use when comparing rates among different population is often
difficult if the demographic characteristics are not known in detail like
age standardized death rate
3- Period and cohort rates
*-period rate is one in which the events of concern occur in the
population being observed during a specified time interval
*-cohort is a group of people who experience a major event in the
same short clearly defined period, usually a year. The most common
demographic cohorts are binh and marriage cohort s

Cohort rates are concerned with event that occur to a cohort of people
over subsequent periods

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6- Fertility
Which use all births as the numerator and the total population as the
denominator, is the most fundamental fertility measure
- the general fertility rate [GFR]also uses all births as the numerator,
but is based on a denominator comprising all women of child
bearing age ,most often defined as a women between 15 -44 years
of age
- age-specific fertility rates [ASFR] is calculated using birth to
women in a specific age internal as the numerator and women in the
same age interval as the denominator each of those measures in a period
rate and customarily is multiplied by constant of 1000
- total fertility rate [TFR]is the sum of all of the age specific fertility
rate by using single years of age
7-mortality;
Which use all death as numerator and the total midyear population as
the denominator
-the age specific death rate [ASDR] IS CALCULATED USING
DEATH THAT OCCUR A MANG THOSE IN SPECIFIC AGE
INTERVAL AS THE NUMERATOR AND THE POULATION IN
THE SAME AGE INTERVAL AS DENOMINATOR the constant
100,000
- Rate for specific causes of death add an important dimension to
mortality analysis
8- migration
The measurement of migration is conceptually similar to that for
fertility and mortality

***-factor affecting change in population


1-fertality determination by
*biological factor like [menarche, menopause, OVULATION, AGE
WITH REPRODUCTIVE SPAN intrauterine mortality ,post partum
an ovulation ,involuntary infertility ]
Behavioral [age at marriage , contraception ,voluntary sterilization
,induced abortion , breast feeding ] Mortality
determination factors in change population **-
behavioral
-age ; start at a high level in infancy remains at low level through
adolescence and early adulthood and then increase in the exorably in
adulthood and old age
-sex theirs a conception that females have a longer life span more than
male

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- - Race /ethnicity
Large part are considered to be the result of social and economic
differences a many racial or ethnic groups in population
-Region/area
Mortality differ by geographic region both within and across national
boundaries
-cause of death the specific cause of death is important to each individual
and often to population changes are deter mind by the spectrum of disease
cause and prevention in community -social and economic conditions
The economic development is related to increase in life span in most
developed country
-Public health play a leading role in reducing mortality through
preventing the transmission of diseases -medicine and
technology
**migration determination factors
Define as movement of people involving a change of residence between
two clearly defined geographic units
The study divided to 1- internal migration refers to change of residence
within national borders, the mover called in-migrant and out-migrant
2-international migration refer to residence change across national
boundaries the mover called immigrant and emigrant
Population census in Egypt The history of population census in Egypt:

-1798 - Egypt's population was estimated at 3 million when


Napoleon invaded the country

1882 — the first census in Egypt had been carried out. The total
population was 6.7 million
In 1947, a census indicated that Egypt's population was 19
million.
A census in 1976 revealed that the population had risen to 36.6
million.

In 1986, a census indicated that the population of Egypt reached


atotal of 50.4 million, including about 2.3 million Egyptians
working in other countries.

In 1996, the census found a population of 59.3 million.

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2006 census

In 2006, the thirteenth census in the Egyptian census series revealed


that the Egypt's population hit 76.5 million inside and outside the
country.

2006 census details


Nationwide demographics
r~-----..............."..........................
Total
Statement countr
y

Total Population Census 2006 72,579,030 2006 fc—J jli-Jl ^

%Change of Population compared with 0 __ 4J jlL> (jl£jaJl .lie- ,«i JJ*J1! "<^
Census 1996 '/ 1996 ^b«i
..

Population Under 6 Years Old %14 Cjljiui 6 £y* L& (jKinil Ajjjj

<Liul \ 5 (j-o (Jil (jlSjuul Ajjoij

Population Under 15 Years Old %32


^j*" 45 L>* _>^ (jl^jJ <AUIJ

Population Over 45 Years Old %20

No Of Households 17,265,567 JjJtfl J^C


:

ju,Vb Jljftl J^ '

Household Population 72,131,096


S^JOIVI .->>'v -lauijia

Family average 4.18


Cj\i a\ -\\\ jajja. J^& j

No Bachelor's Graduates And Over 5,476,704


(jj^SH Ate ;

jNo Illiterates 2006 16,806,657

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Raw Birth Rate 126 fUJl *uJ ^11 j*ll JAM

Raw Death Rate ;6 U*Jl ^jl' J*-

Zz/e expectancy:
Definition:
Life expectancy is the average number of years an individual of giving
age is going to live
Life expectancy at Birth:
The average number of year's newborn infant would be expected to live
if
health and living conditions at the time of its birth remained the same
throughout its life
*Life expectancy in Egypt is progressively increasing by time , and is
more for females than males.
Male Female Year
41.4 47.0 1947
58.0 60.0 1988
62.9 66.4 1996
68.6 72.8 2006

Population Growth
Growth rate: the number of person added to (or subtracted from)
population in a year due to natural increase and net migration expressed as
percentage of the population at the beginning of the time period

Factor influence growth of population:


1-Natural increase of population (the basic factor)
It's the different between live birth and death

2- Migration :(minor factor)


It's the different between immigration (coming to the country )and
emigration (leaving the country) that may increase or decrease the
population

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Rate of Natural Increase of population :
(No. of live births)- (No. of deaths) in certain locality and years X 1000
Midyear population of same locality and year

The Causes of Rapid population growth


(1) Increase in food production and distribution
(2) Improvement in public health (water and sanitation)
(3) Medical
(4)technology
Over population
Is defined as the condition of having more people than can live on the
earth in comfort, happiness and health and still leave the worled afit
place for future generation

Hazarded of over population .-Hazards of over population involve


individuals, family, and the nation
1-Hazareds for Individual
*Infant and young children: risk of high morbidity and mortality
Mothers: exposed to
• Hazards of repeated unpacked pregnancies
• Stress, worry and burden of big family size
Fathers: suffer continued worry of big family and face financial
problems

2- Hazards for family:


They arise from big family, with low percapita income.
Poor housing and insanitary living conditions.
Inadequate feeding and nutrition, specially of vulnerable groups
Employment of children who become deprived of school education and
joyful social life Management of Overpopulation Problem: ACTIONS
AND STRATEGICS THAT CAN BE DEVELOPED TO SOLVE
THESE PROBLEM

More public education is needed to develop more


awareness about population issues in order for them to make projections
about the future generations
-Action plans and strategies can be developed to increase public
understanding of how rapid population growth limits chances for meeting
basic needs the spirit of open communication, and empowerment of
individual women and men will be key to a successful solution to many

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population problems Collective vision about health care, family planning
and women education at the community level -Teachers, parents, other
educators, politicians and other concerned citizens can practice how to
make good decision in everyday life
* Long-term and short-term policies are neede they interact and support
each other, and must thus go together, side by side
LONG-TERM POLICY: National socioeconomic development is
needed:
*To promote national, family and percapita income
* To manage the majority of high-fertility motives
• better chance of child survival, and lowered infant and
child mortality
• Better living standard, and so the family is not in need of
employing children for economic support, and feels responsible
for child welfare, and so prefers small family size
• Better chance of education and culture, with ambition for
better living conditions
Short-term Management: Family planning program, for fertility
regulation and birth control Promoting national productivity
and investment: -- To meet needs of the public - To verify more
exports and less imports

Fam ily plann ing

Family planning means regulation of childbirth, and not to


leave it to chance
Safe Motherhood to support maternal health, and save
-mothers risk associated with many un spaced pregnancies
- Favorable outcome of pregnancy
- Better chance of child survival
Family welfare and better child care, when having
suitable family
Objectives of Family Planning Program:
1-Helps family to have a suitable number of children, and avoid
having unwanted child 2-Helps mothers to have pregnancies within the
most safe childbearing period, with proper pregnancy spacing
3- Postpones pregnancy for required period of time, when
indicated
4- Investigation and management of the infertile, to help them

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have children
3 - Geometric method:
the most accurate method of estimation. Special formula is used to find
out the annual rate of population growth, to be applied to the last census
population, to get estimated population of a given year. 4- Graphics
method:
A umber of successive census population is plotted on a graph and joined
together by straight line, that is extended over future years, obtained
graph used to find out:
* intercensus population of any given year within censuses of graph.
* expected population of future years, assuming that growth rate of
population will not change.
Census population of Egypt: 2006 as 73.7 million.

POPULA TION PYRAMIDS


There are many different ways to graphically present population data.
However, the use of a population pyramid is considered the best way to
graphically illustrate the age and sex distribution, of a given population.
There are many different ways to graphically present population data.
However, the use of a population pyramid is considered the best way to
graphically illustrate the age and sex distribution, of a given population.

Types of population pyramid

Population pyramids for 4 stages of the demographic transition model

While all countries population pyramids differ, three types have been
identified by the fertility and mortality rates of a country.

Stable pyramid - A population pyramid showing an unchanging


pattern of fertility and mortality

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. Stationary pyramid - A population pyramid typical of countries with
low fertility and low mortality, also called a constrictive pyramid.

Expansive pyramid - A population pyramid showing a broad base,


indicating a high proportion of children, a rapid rate of population
growth, and a low proportion of older people.

Constrictive pyramid - A population pyramid showing lower


numbers or percentages of younger people. The country will have a
greying population which means that people are generally older

PGR* (population growth rate) *

The shapes of population pyramids reveal three types of population


growth. There is the

1. Rapidly growing population = broad base- e.g. developing


countries,

2. . Stable population - narrow base - rich developed countries,

3. . Declining population = very thin base and large chest - highly


affluent nations.

Uses of population pyramids

1-Population pyramids can be used to find the number of economic


dependents being supported in a particular population.

Economic dependents are defined as those under 15 (children who are in


full time education and therefore unable to work) and those over 65 (those
who have retired).
Of course, in some less economically developed countries children start
work well before the age of 15, and in some more economically
developed countries it is not usual to start work until 18 Or 21.

2-Population pyramids useful in planning for the future. They can be used in
helping to predict changes in the age structure of the population over the
next fifty or so years so that plans can be introduced to cope with the
predicted changes.
3-Social historians may find information of interest in population
pyramids. For example, In Germany there are far more males aged 20-35
than females. This is due to an influx of immigrants from Turkey

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REFRANCE Population pyramid -
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.htm *Egypt recent change in
population .htm
B,Robert,wallace,MD,MSc,M,John,MD,DPH,PublicHealth&Pr
eventive Medicine ,Puplic H ealth andPopulation , 1996

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