Prologue-The 1985 report of the discovery of an "ozone hole" over Antarctica focused attention

on the idea that humans can have a significant impact on the global environment This discovery!
along "ith evidence that ozone is being lost at nearly all latitudes outside the tropics! has
prompted much research into the causes of ozone depletion and the biological effects of increased
ultraviolet radiation e#posure The potential effects on humans and the environment have led to
international resolutions designed to gradually phase out production of ozone-depleting
substances As a result! the scientific and industrial communities have collaborated to find safe
and economical replacements for chlorofluorocarbons $%&%s'! the manmade chemicals
implicated in ozone loss
%hlorofluorocarbons and (zone )epletion
%hlorofluorocarbons $%&%s'! along "ith other chlorine- and bromine-containing compounds!
have been implicated in the accelerated depletion of ozone in the *arth+s stratosphere %&%s "ere
developed in the early 19,-s and are used in a variety of industrial! commercial! and household
applications These substances are non-to#ic! non-flammable! and non-reactive "ith other
chemical compounds These desirable safety characteristics! along "ith their stable
thermodynamic properties! ma.e them ideal for many applications--as coolants for commercial
and home refrigeration units! aerosol propellants! electronic cleaning solvents! and blo"ing
agents Production and /se of %hlorofluorocarbons e#perienced nearly uninterrupted gro"th as
demand for products re0uiring their use continued to rise
1ot until 192, "as chlorine found to be a catalytic agent in ozone destruction %atalytic
destruction of ozone removes the odd o#ygen species 3atomic o#ygen $(' and ozone $(,'4 "hile
leaving chlorine unaffected This process "as .no"n to be potentially damaging to the ozone
layer! but conclusive evidence of stratospheric ozone loss "as not discovered until 1985
Announcement of polar ozone depletion over Antarctica in 6arch 1985 prompted scientific
initiatives to discover the (zone )epletion Processes! along "ith calls to freeze or diminish
production of chlorinated fluorocarbons A comple# scenario of atmospheric dynamics! solar
radiation! and chemical reactions "as found to e#plain the anomalously lo" levels of ozone
during the polar springtime 7ecent e#peditions to the Arctic regions sho" that similar processes
can occur in the northern hemisphere! but to a some"hat lesser degree due to "armer
temperatures and erratic dynamic patterns
A primary ob8ective for researchers in addressing this issue has been analysis of 6easurements
and Trends in (zone and %hlorofluorocarbon 9evels :lobal monitoring of ozone levels from
space by the Total (zone 6apping ;pectrometer $T(6;' instrument has sho"n statistically
significant do"n"ard trends in ozone at all latitudes outside the tropics 6easurements at several
ground-based stations have sho"n corresponding up"ard trends in %&%s in both the northern and
southern hemisphere )espite rapid phase-out of %&%s! ozone levels are e#pected to be lo"er
than pre-depletion levels for several decades due to the long tropospheric lifetimes of %&%s
These compounds are carried into the stratosphere! "here they can undergo hundreds of catalytic
cycles involving ozone before being scavenged by other chemical species
7eplacement compounds for %&%s have also been evaluated for their (zone )epletion Potential
$()P' <ydro chlorofluorocarbons $<%&%s' still contain chlorine atoms! but the presence of
hydrogen ma.es them reactive "ith chemical species in the troposphere This greatly reduces the
prospects of the chlorine reaching the stratosphere! as chlorine "ill be removed by chemical
processes in the lo"er atmosphere <ydro fluorocarbons $<&%s'! potential replacements for
%&%s that contain no chlorine! have been evaluated for potential effects of fluorine compounds
on ozone destruction 6c&arland and =aye give an overvie" of the %&%-ozone issue in the 199>
paper "%hlorofluorocarbons and (zone"
Health Effects from Increased Exposure to Ultraviolet-B (UV-B) Radiation due to Stratospheric
Oone !epletion
;tratospheric ozone protects the biosphere from potentially damaging doses of ultraviolet-?
radiation $/@-?' 7ecent depletion of stratospheric ozone could lead to significant increases in
/@-? reaching the *arth+s surface /@-? radiation is responsible for a "ide range of potentially
damaging human and animal health effects! primarily related to the s.in! eyes! and immune
system <uman e#posure to /@-? depends upon an individual+s location $latitude and altitude'!
the duration and timing of outdoor activities $time of day! season of the year'! and precautionary
behavior $use of sunscreen! sunglasses! or protective clothing' An individual+s s.in color and age
can influence the occurrence and severity of some of the health effects from e#posure to /@-?
/ltraviolet-? radiation $/@-?' damages human s.inA Acute e#posure causes sunburn and chronic
e#posure results in loss of elasticity and increased aging ;ome individuals! usually those living
in areas "ith limited sunlight and long dar. "inters! may also suffer severe photo-allergies to the
/@-? in sunlight Bncreased absorption of /@-? triggers a thic.ening of the superficial s.in
layers and an increase in s.in pigmentation! "hich act to protect the s.in against future sunburns
This protective mechanism also ma.es the s.in more vulnerable to s.in cancer! ho"ever ;trong
evidence e#ists of a dose-response relationship bet"een nonmelanoma s.in cancer and
cumulative e#posure to /@-? radiation Bncreased ris. of malignant melanoma is associated "ith
episodes of acute e#posure that result in severe sunburns! especially those that occur during
childhood Bn general! the incidence of nonmelanoma and malignant melanoma s.in cancer has
increased significantly over the past fe" decades! particularly in the /nited ;tates! %anada!
Australia! the /nited =ingdom! and ;candinavian countries 7esearchers are e#amining the
relationship of the gro"ing ris. of s.in cancer to increases in ground-level /@-? radiation due to
ozone depletion
*nvironmental *ffects of (zone )epletion
*ffects of increased ultraviolet radiation on biological systems had been investigated even before
the ozone-depletion issue came to prominence *ffects such as alterations in tropospheric
chemistry and potential global "arming due to chlorofluorocarbons $%&%s' did not present
themselves! ho"ever! until depletion and the rise in %&% levels "as thought to be possible 6oan
$1991' offers a brief overvie" of such environmental ramifications of ozone depletion in "(zone
<oles and ?iological %onse0uences"
;everal possible /ltraviolet-? *ffects on Terrestrial Plants have been investigated! including
reduction in yield! alteration in species competition! decrease in photosynthetic activity!
susceptibility to disease! and changes in plant structure and pigmentation ;tudies carried out on
loblolly pine indicate retardation of gro"th and photosynthesis resulting from enhanced levels of
ultraviolet-? $/@-?' ;imilar effects! including yield reduction! "ere found in certain rice
cultivars Bn field study e#periments! soybean harvests sho"ed decreases under a simulated >5
percent ozone reduction *#isting microclimatic conditions! such as drought and mineral
deficiency! can reduce sensitivity to /@-?! ho"ever
6ost field studies of /ltraviolet-? *ffects on A0uatic *cosystems have ta.en place in the
Antarctic region! due to the presence of the ozone hole during the polar springtime! and have
focused on the effects on phytoplan.ton! the primary producers at the base of the Antarctic food
"eb Phytoplan.ton are sensitive to increased /@-? doses! resulting in decreased mobility and
orientation! and changes in photosynthetic and enzymatic reactions These effects may lead to
reduction in primary productivity! "hich indirectly affects higher trophic levels ?ecause humans
and other consumers are dependent on higher species such as fish and shrimp! populations outside
the local ecosystem are potentially at ris. Pro.aryotic microorganisms responsible for nitrogen
fi#ation are also susceptible to /@-?! "hich could result in changes in the biogeochemical
cycling of nitrogen! potentially leading to detrimental effects on plant gro"th (ther possible
indirect effects of higher /@-? stress are decreased plan.tonic production of dimethylsulfide
$)6;'! an important source of sulfur and cloud condensation nuclei to the atmosphere! and
reduced upta.e of %(> by the oceans
:lobal climate may also be influenced by %hanges *nvironmental *ffects of (zone )epletion
*ffects of increased ultraviolet radiation on biological systems had been investigated even before
the ozone-depletion issue came to prominence *ffects such as alterations in tropospheric
chemistry and potential global "arming due to chlorofluorocarbons $%&%s' did not present
themselves! ho"ever! until depletion and the rise in %&% levels "as thought to be possible 6oan
$1991' offers a brief overvie" of such environmental ramifications of ozone depletion in "(zone
<oles and ?iological %onse0uences"
;everal possible /ltraviolet-? *ffects on Terrestrial Plants have been investigated! including
reduction in yield! alteration in species competition! decrease in photosynthetic activity!
susceptibility to disease! and changes in plant structure and pigmentation ;tudies carried out on
loblolly pine indicate retardation of gro"th and photosynthesis resulting from enhanced levels of
ultraviolet-? $/@-?' ;imilar effects! including yield reduction! "ere found in certain rice
cultivars Bn field study e#periments! soybean harvests sho"ed decreases under a simulated >5
percent ozone reduction *#isting microclimatic conditions! such as drought and mineral
deficiency! can reduce sensitivity to /@-?! ho"ever
6ost field studies of /ltraviolet-? *ffects on A0uatic *cosystems have ta.en place in the
Antarctic region! due to the presence of the ozone hole during the polar springtime! and have
focused on the effects on phytoplan.ton! the primary producers at the base of the Antarctic food
"eb Phytoplan.ton are sensitive to increased /@-? doses! resulting in decreased mobility and
orientation! and changes in photosynthetic and enzymatic reactions These effects may lead to
reduction in primary productivity! "hich indirectly affects higher trophic levels ?ecause humans
and other consumers are dependent on higher species such as fish and shrimp! populations outside
the local ecosystem are potentially at ris. Pro.aryotic microorganisms responsible for nitrogen
fi#ation are also susceptible to /@-?! "hich could result in changes in the biogeochemical
cycling of nitrogen! potentially leading to detrimental effects on plant gro"th (ther possible
indirect effects of higher /@-? stress are decreased plan.tonic production of dimethylsulfide
$)6;'! an important source of sulfur and cloud condensation nuclei to the atmosphere! and
reduced upta.e of %(> by the oceans
:lobal climate may also be influenced by %hanges in Tro*nvironmental *ffects of (zone
)epletion
*ffects of increased ultraviolet radiation on biological systems had been investigated even before
the ozone-depletion issue came to prominence *ffects such as alterations in tropospheric
chemistry and potential global "arming due to chlorofluorocarbons $%&%s' did not present
themselves! ho"ever! until depletion and the rise in %&% levels "as thought to be possible 6oan
$1991' offers a brief overvie" of such environmental ramifications of ozone depletion in "(zone
<oles and ?iological %onse0uences"
;everal possible /ltraviolet-? *ffects on Terrestrial Plants have been investigated! including
reduction in yield! alteration in species competition! decrease in photosynthetic activity!
susceptibility to disease! and changes in plant structure and pigmentation ;tudies carried out on
loblolly pine indicate retardation of gro"th and photosynthesis resulting from enhanced levels of
ultraviolet-? $/@-?' ;imilar effects! including yield reduction! "ere found in certain rice
cultivars Bn field study e#periments! soybean harvests sho"ed decreases under a simulated >5
percent ozone reduction *#isting microclimatic conditions! such as drought and mineral
deficiency! can reduce sensitivity to /@-?! ho"ever
6ost field studies of /ltraviolet-? *ffects on A0uatic *cosystems have ta.en place in the
Antarctic region! due to the presence of the ozone hole during the polar springtime! and have
focused on the effects on phytoplan.ton! the primary producers at the base of the Antarctic food
"eb Phytoplan.ton are sensitive to increased /@-? doses! resulting in decreased mobility and
orientation! and changes in photosynthetic and enzymatic reactions These effects may lead to
reduction in primary productivity! "hich indirectly affects higher trophic levels ?ecause humans
and other consumers are dependent on higher species such as fish and shrimp! populations outside
the local ecosystem are potentially at ris. Pro.aryotic microorganisms responsible for nitrogen
fi#ation are also susceptible to /@-?! "hich could result in changes in the biogeochemical
cycling of nitrogen! potentially leading to detrimental effects on plant gro"th (ther possible
indirect effects of higher /@-? stress are decreased plan.tonic production of dimethylsulfide
$)6;'! an important source of sulfur and cloud condensation nuclei to the atmosphere! and
reduced upta.e of %(> by the oceans
:lobal climate may also be influenced by %hanges in Tropospheric %hemistry ;tudies have
suggested that the recent slo"do"n in the rate of increase of methane levels in the atmosphere
may be due! in part! to increased /@-? irradiance in the lo"er atmosphere Photochemical smog
production in urban areas "ould also increase under enhanced /@-? levels! reducing air 0uality
and leading to possible effects on human health and agriculture
%hlorofluorocarbons and potential replacement substances also enter into the global climate
picture because of their radiative characteristics ;ome of these compounds absorb long"ave
infrared radiation from the *arth+s surface that no other substances absorb! thus adding to the
greenhouse effect The :lobal Carming Potential of %hlorofluorocarbons and Their
7eplacements has been evaluated relative to carbon dio#ide "arming potential This factor is
significant "hen evaluating "hether alternatives to %&%s are suitable for distribution in
"idespread applications on a "orld"ide basis
pospheric %hemistry ;tudies have suggested that the recent slo"do"n in the rate of increase of
methane levels in the atmosphere may be due! in part! to increased /@-? irradiance in the lo"er
atmosphere Photochemical smog production in urban areas "ould also increase under enhanced
/@-? levels! reducing air 0uality and leading to possible effects on human health and agriculture
%hlorofluorocarbons and potential replacement substances also enter into the global climate
picture because of their radiative characteristics ;ome of these compounds absorb long"ave
infrared radiation from the *arth+s surface that no other substances absorb! thus adding to the
greenhouse effect The :lobal Carming Potential of %hlorofluorocarbons and Their
7eplacements has been evaluated relative to carbon dio#ide "arming potential This factor is
significant "hen evaluating "hether alternatives to %&%s are suitable for distribution in
"idespread applications on a "orld"ide basis
in Tropospheric %hemistry ;tudies have suggested that the recent slo"do"n in the rate of
increase of methane levels in the atmosphere may be due! in part! to increased /@-? irradiance in
the lo"er atmosphere Photochemical smog production in urban areas "ould also increase under
enhanced /@-? levels! reducing air 0uality and leading to possible effects on human health and
agriculture
%hlorofluorocarbons and potential replacement substances also enter into the global climate
picture because of their radiative characteristics ;ome of these compounds absorb long"ave
infrared radiation from the *arth+s surface that no other substances absorb! thus adding to the
greenhouse effect The :lobal Carming Potential of %hlorofluorocarbons and Their
7eplacements has been evaluated relative to carbon dio#ide "arming potential This factor is
significant "hen evaluating "hether alternatives to %&%s are suitable for distribution in
"idespread applications on a "orld"ide basis
Policies and Responses
Protecting the stratospheric ozone layer by controlling the production and use of ozone-depleting
compounds has been an environmental concern since the mid-192-s! "hen it "as discovered that
chlorine could potentially deplete the ozone layer 1ot until significant losses of ozone "ere
reported in 1985! ho"ever! did ozone depletion become an important international issue The
principal international policy instrument for protecting the stratospheric ozone layer is the
6ontreal Protocol on ;ubstances That )eplete the (zone 9ayer 6any countries! and even some
cities and other subnational authorities! have ta.en action to control production and use of
chlorofluorocarbons $%&%s' and other ozone-depleting substances 6uch of the
National/Subnational Ozone Policy Formulation is in response to the 6ontreal Protocol!
although several countries had ta.en steps to control %&%s prior to the international agreements
set forth in the Protocol
Bn response to these policy and regulatory developments! industrial organizations directly affected
have been actively engaged in developing alternative substances to %&%s and other ozone-
depleting compounds ;everal environmental and economic factors need to be considered in
%hlorofluorocarbon Phaseout! such as safety characteristics! efficiency! ozone-depletion potential!
and economic impacts on industry of phaseout schedules for e#isting %&%s
Montreal protocol and its impacts
At 6ontreal! the participants agreed to freeze production of %&%s at 198D levels and to
reduce production by 5-E by 1999 After a series of scientific e#peditions to the
Antarctic produced convincing evidence that the ozone hole "as indeed caused by
chlorine and bromine from manmade organohalogens! the 6ontreal Protocol "as
strengthened at a 199- meeting in 9ondon The participants agreed to phase out %&%s
and halons entirely $aside from a very small amount mar.ed for certain "essential" uses!
such as asthma inhalers by >--- At a 199> meeting in %openhagen! the phase out date
"as moved up to 199D
To some e#tent! %&%s have been replaced by the less damaging hydro-chloro-fluoro-
carbons $<%&%s FG"i.iG<%&%H'! although concerns remain regarding <%&%s also Bn
some applications! hydro-fluoro-carbons have been used to replace %&%s <&%s! "hich
contain no chlorine or bromine! do not contribute at all to ozone depletion although they
are potent greenhouse gases The best .no"n of these compounds is probably <&%-1,5a !
"hich in the /nited ;tates has largely replaced %&%-1> in automobile air conditioners
Bn laboratory analytics $a former "essential" use' the ozone depleting substances can be
replaced "ith various other solvents3>84
Oone !iplomac"! by 7ichard ?enedic. $<arvard /niversity Press! 1991' gives a
detailed account of the negotiation process that led to the 6ontreal Protocol Piel.e and
?etsill provide an e#tensive revie" of early /; government responses to the emerging
science of ozone depletion by %&%s
;ince the 6ontreal Protocol came into effect! the atmospheric concentrations of the most
important chlorofluorocarbons and related chlorinated hydrocarbons have either leveled
off or decreased <alon concentrations have continued to increase! as the halons presently
stored in fire e#tinguishers are released! but their rate of increase has slo"ed and their
abundances are e#pected to begin to decline by about >->- Also! the concentration of the
<%&%s increased drastically at least partly because for many uses %&%s $eg used as
solvents or refrigerating agents' "ere substituted "ith <%&%s Chile there have been
reports of attempts by individuals to circumvent the ban! eg by smuggling %&%s from
undeveloped to developed nations! the overall level of compliance has been high Bn
conse0uence! the 6ontreal Protocol has often been called the most successful
international environmental agreement to date Bn a >--1 report! 1A;A found the ozone
hole over Antarctica had remained the same size for the previous three years! ho"ever in
>--, the ozone hole gre" to its second largest size
/nfortunately! the hydrochlorofluorocarbons! or <%&%s! and hydrofluorocarbons! or
<&%s! are no" thought to contribute to anthropogenic global "arming (n a molecule-
for-molecule basis! these compounds are up to 1-!--- times more potent greenhouse
gases than carbon dio#ide The 6ontreal Protocol currently calls for a complete phase-
out of <%&%s by >-,-! but does not place any restriction on <&%s ;ince the %&%s
themselves are e0ually po"erful as greenhouse gases! the mere substitution of <&%s for
%&%s does not significantly increase the rate of anthropogenic global "arming! but over
time a steady increase in their use could increase the danger that human activity "ill
change the climate
The future prospects for ozone depletion
The Arctic "inter of >--5 "as e#tremely cold in the stratosphereI P;%s "ere abundant
over many high-latitude areas until dissipated by a big "arming event! "hich started in
the upper stratosphere during &ebruary and spread throughout the Arctic stratosphere in
6arch The size of the Arctic area of anomalously lo" total ozone in >--5->--5 "as
larger than in any year since 1992 The predominance of anomalously lo" total ozone
values in the Arctic region in the "inter of >--5->--5 is attributed to the very lo"
stratospheric temperatures and meteorological conditions favorable for ozone destruction
along "ith the continued presence of ozone destroying chemicals in the stratosphere3,>4
A >--5 BP%% summary of ozone issues observed that observations and model
calculations suggest that the global average amount of ozone depletion has no"
appro#imately stabilized Although considerable variability in ozone is e#pected from
year to year! including in polar regions "here depletion is largest! the ozone layer is
e#pected to begin to recover in coming decades due to declining ozone-depleting
substance concentrations! assuming full compliance "ith the 6ontreal Protocol3,,4
Temperatures during the Arctic "inter of >--D stayed fairly close to the long-term
average until late January! "ith minimum readings fre0uently cold enough to produce
P;%s )uring the last "ee. of January! ho"ever! a ma8or "arming event sent
temperatures "ell above normal - much too "arm to support P;%s ?y the time
temperatures dropped bac. to near normal in 6arch! the seasonal norm "as "ell above
the P;% threshold3,54 Preliminary satellite instrument-generated ozone maps sho"
seasonal ozone buildup slightly belo" the long-term means for the 1orthern <emisphere
as a "hole! although some high ozone events have occurred3,54 )uring 6arch >--D! the
Arctic stratosphere pole"ard of D- degrees 1orth 9atitude "as free of anomalously lo"
ozone areas e#cept during the three-day period from 6arch 12 FG"i.iG6archK12H to 19
"hen the total ozone cover fell belo" ,-- )/ over part of the 1orth Atlantic region from
:reenland to ;candinavia3,D4
The area "here total column ozone is less than >>- )/ $the accepted definition of the
boundary of the ozone hole' "as relatively small until around >- August>-H >--D ;ince
then the ozone hole area increased rapidly! pea.ing at >9 million .mL ;eptember >5 Bn
(ctober >--D! reported that the year+s ozone hole set a ne" area record "ith a daily
average of >D million .mL bet"een 2 ;eptember and 1, (ctober KI total ozone
thic.nesses fell as lo" as 85 )/ on (ctober 8 The t"o factors combined! >--D sees the
"orst level of depletion in recorded ozone history The depletion is attributed to the
temperatures above the Antarctic reaching the lo"est recording since comprehensive
records began in 19293,243,84
The Antarctic ozone hole is e#pected to continue for decades (zone concentrations in
the lo"er stratosphere over Antarctica "ill increase by 5E-1-E by >->- and return to
pre-198- levels by about >-D-->-25! 1-->5 years later than predicted in earlier
assessments This is because of revised estimates of atmospheric concentrations of (zone
)epleting ;ubstances - and a larger predicted future usage in developing countries
Another factor "hich may aggravate ozone depletion is the dra"-do"n of nitrogen o#ides
from above the stratosphere due to changing "ind patterns
The basic physical and chemical processes that lead to the formation of an ozone layer in
the earth+s stratosphere "ere discovered by ;ydney %hapman in 19,- These are
discussed in the article (zone-o#ygen cycle - briefly! short-"avelength /@ radiation
splits an o#ygen $(>' molecule into t"o o#ygen $(' atoms! "hich then combine "ith
other o#ygen molecules to form ozone (zone is removed "hen an o#ygen atom and an
ozone molecule "recombine" to form t"o o#ygen molecules! ie ( M (, N >(> Bn the
195-s! )avid ?ates and 6arcel 1icolet presented evidence that various free radicals! in
particular hydro#yl $(<' and nitric o#ide $1('! could catalyze this recombination
reaction! reducing the overall amount of ozone These free radicals "ere .no"n to be
present in the stratosphere! and so "ere regarded as part of the natural balance - it "as
estimated that in their absence! the ozone layer "ould be about t"ice as thic. as it
currently is
Bn 192- Prof Paul %rutzen pointed out that emissions of nitrous o#ide $1>('! a stable!
long-lived gas produced by soil bacteria! from the earth+s surface could affect the amount
of nitric o#ide $1(' in the stratosphere %rutzen sho"ed that nitrous o#ide lives long
enough to reach the stratosphere! "here it is converted into 1( %rutzen then noted that
increasing use of fertilizers might have led to an increase in nitrous o#ide emissions over
the natural bac.ground! "hich "ould in turn result in an increase in the amount of 1( in
the stratosphere Thus human activity could have an impact on the stratospheric ozone
layer Bn the follo"ing year! %rutzen and $independently' <arold Johnston suggested that
1( emissions from supersonic "hich fly in the lo"er stratosphere! could also deplete the
ozone layer
a
The Arctic "inter of >--5 "as e#tremely cold in the stratosphereI P;%s "ere abundant
over many high-latitude areas until dissipated by a big "arming event! "hich started in
the upper stratosphere during &ebruary and spread throughout the Arctic stratosphere in
6arch The size of the Arctic area of anomalously lo" total ozone in >--5->--5 "as
larger than in any year since 1992 The predominance of anomalously lo" total ozone
values in the Arctic region in the "inter of >--5->--5 is attributed to the very lo"
stratospheric temperatures and meteorological conditions favorable for ozone destruction
along "ith the continued presence of ozone destroying chemicals in the stratosphere3,>4
A >--5 BP%% summary of ozone issues observed that observations and model
calculations suggest that the global average amount of ozone depletion has no"
appro#imately stabilized Although considerable variability in ozone is e#pected from
year to year! including in polar regions "here depletion is largest! the ozone layer is
e#pected to begin to recover in coming decades due to declining ozone-depleting
substance concentrations! assuming full compliance "ith the 6ontreal Protocol3,,4
Temperatures during the Arctic "inter of >--D stayed fairly close to the long-term
average until late January! "ith minimum readings fre0uently cold enough to produce
P;%s )uring the last "ee. of January! ho"ever! a ma8or "arming event sent
temperatures "ell above normal - much too "arm to support P;%s ?y the time
temperatures dropped bac. to near normal in 6arch! the seasonal norm "as "ell above
the P;% threshold3,54 Preliminary satellite instrument-generated ozone maps sho"
seasonal ozone buildup slightly belo" the long-term means for the 1orthern <emisphere
as a "hole! although some high ozone events have occurred3,54 )uring 6arch >--D! the
Arctic stratosphere pole"ard of D- degrees 1orth 9atitude "as free of anomalously lo"
ozone areas e#cept during the three-day period from 6arch 12 FG"i.iG6archK12H to 19
"hen the total ozone cover fell belo" ,-- )/ over part of the 1orth Atlantic region from
:reenland to ;candinavia3,D4
The area "here total column ozone is less than >>- )/ $the accepted definition of the
boundary of the ozone hole' "as relatively small until around >- August>-H >--D ;ince
then the ozone hole area increased rapidly! pea.ing at >9 million .mL ;eptember >5 Bn
(ctober >--D! reported that the year+s ozone hole set a ne" area record "ith a daily
average of >D million .mL bet"een 2 ;eptember and 1, (ctober KI total ozone
thic.nesses fell as lo" as 85 )/ on (ctober 8 The t"o factors combined! >--D sees the
"orst level of depletion in recorded ozone history The depletion is attributed to the
temperatures above the Antarctic reaching the lo"est recording since comprehensive
records began in 19293,243,84
The Antarctic ozone hole is e#pected to continue for decades (zone concentrations in
the lo"er stratosphere over Antarctica "ill increase by 5E-1-E by >->- and return to
pre-198- levels by about >-D-->-25! 1-->5 years later than predicted in earlier
assessments This is because of revised estimates of atmospheric concentrations of (zone
)epleting ;ubstances - and a larger predicted future usage in developing countries
Another factor "hich may aggravate ozone depletion is the dra"-do"n of nitrogen o#ides
from above the stratosphere due to changing "ind patterns
The basic physical and chemical processes that lead to the formation of an ozone layer in
the earth+s stratosphere "ere discovered by ;ydney %hapman in 19,- These are
discussed in the article (zone-o#ygen cycle - briefly! short-"avelength /@ radiation
splits an o#ygen $(>' molecule into t"o o#ygen $(' atoms! "hich then combine "ith
other o#ygen molecules to form ozone (zone is removed "hen an o#ygen atom and an
ozone molecule "recombine" to form t"o o#ygen molecules! ie ( M (, N >(> Bn the
195-s! )avid ?ates and 6arcel 1icolet presented evidence that various free radicals! in
particular hydro#yl $(<' and nitric o#ide $1('! could catalyze this recombination
reaction! reducing the overall amount of ozone These free radicals "ere .no"n to be
present in the stratosphere! and so "ere regarded as part of the natural balance - it "as
estimated that in their absence! the ozone layer "ould be about t"ice as thic. as it
currently is
Bn 192- Prof Paul %rutzen pointed out that emissions of nitrous o#ide $1>('! a stable!
long-lived gas produced by soil bacteria! from the earth+s surface could affect the amount
of nitric o#ide $1(' in the stratosphere %rutzen sho"ed that nitrous o#ide lives long
enough to reach the stratosphere! "here it is converted into 1( %rutzen then noted that
increasing use of fertilizers might have led to an increase in nitrous o#ide emissions over
the natural bac.ground! "hich "ould in turn result in an increase in the amount of 1( in
the stratosphere Thus human activity could have an impact on the stratospheric ozone
layer Bn the follo"ing year! %rutzen and $independently' <arold Johnston suggested that
1( emissions from supersonic "hich fly in the lo"er stratosphere! could also deplete the
ozone layer
The apparent damage due to ozone depletion
The full e#tent of the damage that %&%s have caused to the ozone layer is not .no"n and
"ill not be .no"n for decadesI ho"ever! mar.ed decreases in column ozone have already
been observed $as e#plained above'
After a 192D report by the /; 1ational Academy of ;ciences
K1ationalKAcademyKofK;ciences concluded that credible scientific evidence supported
the ozone depletion hypothesis! a fe" countries! including the /nited ;tates! %anada!
;"eden! and 1or"ay! moved to eliminate the use of %&%s in aerosol spray cans At the
time this "as "idely regarded as a first step to"ards a more comprehensive regulation
policy! but progress in this direction slo"ed in subse0uent years! due to a combination of
political factors $continued resistance from the halocarbon industry and a general change
in attitude to"ards environmental regulation during the first t"o years of the 7eagan
administration' and scientific developments $subse0uent 1ational Academy assessments
"hich indicated that the first estimates of the magnitude of ozone depletion had been
overly large' The *uropean %ommunity re8ected proposals to ban %&%s in aerosol sprays
"hile even in the /;! %&%s continued to be used as refrigerants and for cleaning circuit
boards Corld"ide %&% production fell sharply after the /; aerosol ban! but by 198D
had returned nearly to its 192D level Bn 198-! )uPont closed do"n its research program
into halocarbon alternatives
The /; :overnment+s attitude began to change again in 198,! "hen Cilliam
7uc.elshaus replaced Anne 6 ?urford as Administrator of the /nited ;tates
*nvironmental Protection Agency /nder 7uc.elshaus and his successor! 9ee Thomas!
the *PA pushed for an international approach to halocarbon regulations Bn 1985 >-
nations! including most of the ma8or %&% producers! signed the @ienna %onvention
"hich established a frame"or. for negotiating international regulations on ozone-
depleting substances That same year! the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole "as
announced! causing a revival in public attention to the issue Bn 1982! representatives
from 5, nations signed the 6ontreal Protocol
FG"i.iG6ontrealKProtocolKonK;ubstancesKthatK)epleteKtheK(zoneK9ayer 6ean"hile!
the halocarbon industry shifted its position and started supporting a protocol to limit %&%
production The reasons for this "ere in part e#plained by ")r 6ostafa Tolba! former
head of the /1 *nvironment Programme! "ho "as 0uoted in theedition of The 1e"
;cientist H! +the chemical industry supported the 6ontreal Protocol in 1982 because it
set up a "orld"ide schedule for phasing out %&%s! "hich 3"ere4 no longer protected by
patents This provided companies "ith an e0ual opportunity to mar.et ne"! more
profitable compounds+"
Current prospects of Ozone depletion
;ince the adoption and strengthening of the 6ontreal Protocol has led to reductions in the
emissions of %&%s! atmospheric concentrations of the most significant compounds have
been declining These substances are being gradually removed from the atmosphere ?y
>-15! the Antarctic ozone hole "ould have reduced by only 1 million .mL out of >5
$1e"man et al#! >--5'I complete recovery of the Antarctic ozone layer "ill not occur
until the year >-5- or later Cor. has suggested that a detectable $and statistically
significant' recovery "ill not occur until around >->5! "ith ozone levels recovering to
198- levels by around >-D83>94
There is a slight caveat to this! ho"ever from %(> is e#pected to cool the stratosphere4
This! in turn! "ould lead to a relative increase in ozone depletion and the fre0uency of
ozone holes The effect may not be linearI ozone holes form because of polar
stratospheric cloudsI the formation of polar stratospheric clouds has a temperature
threshold above "hich they "ill not formI cooling of the Arctic stratosphere might lead to
Antarctic-ozone-hole-li.e conditions ?ut at the moment this is not clear
*ven though the stratosphere as a "hole is cooling! high-latitude areas may become
increasingly predisposed to springtime stratospheric "arming events as "eather patterns
change in response to higher loading This "ould cause P;%s to disappear earlier in the
season! and may e#plain "hy Antarctic ozone hole seasons have tended to end some"hat
earlier since >--- as compared "ith the most prolonged ozone holes of the 199-s
The decrease in ozone-depleting chemicals has also been significantly affected by a
decrease in containing chemicals The data suggest that substantial natural sources e#ist
for atmospheric methyl bromide $%<,?r'3,-4
The >--5 ozone hole ended in 1ovember >--5! daily minimum stratospheric
temperatures in the Antarctic lo"er stratosphere increased to levels that are too "arm for
the formation of polar stratospheric clouds $P;%s' about > to , "ee.s earlier than in most
recent years3,14