PAPFacesHugeChallengesofPeerEffectsandThreshold

Changes

Ifwecomparenowand20yearsago,wewillbeabletoseethedifference
inpeereffectsandthresholdofpublictrustonthePAPgovernment.The
same60%PAPobtainedinGE1991andGE2011indicatesavery
differentpicture,frombasicstatisticstospeakers'cornerandvoicingout.

OnlyonethirdSingaporevotersparticipatedinGE1991andinmanyways
thisisabiassamplingofopinions.GE2011withmorethan90%voters
andPE2011with100%votersparticipation,bothprovideabetter
representedpopulationstatistics.WhenthePAPstudiesthetrendand
statistics,theyhavetoquietlyadmitthatpublictrustongovernment
performanceiscertainlydeclining.

ThistrendcontinuesafterGE2011asclearlyindicatesinthevarious
Speakers'CornereventsatHongLimPark.Whetheryoucallthemsocial
movementsorpoliticaldiscontents,theyallshowsomedegreeofpeer
effectsandalowthresholdofapprovingthePAP.

Peereffectsiseasiertounderstand.Youjoin,yourfriendjoinsandyour
friend'sfriendswillalsojoin.ThishappensinFacebook,intwittersor
socialmediaetc.However,togeneratealargegroupparticipation,an
activityneedsadifferentandchangedthresholdthanbefore,alower
thresholdwillstimulatemoreparticipation.

ProfessorScottEPageofUniversityofMichiganinhisdiscussionabout
modelthinkingofpeereffectsarguesthatachangeinthresholdcan
stimulateabiggerpeereffects,liketheBerlinWall,ArabSpringorOrange
RevolutioninUkraine.Thesepeereffectsinfactcaughtmany,even
experts,'offguard'andoutofexpectation.
ProfessorPagesaid,Eachpersonhasathreshold.Andtheexpressionis
like,howmanyotherpeoplewouldhavetojointhemovementinorderfor
themtojointhemovement.[Youmayviewthevideobelow@1.45mintounderthe
logicofthreshold.]

ThisisliketheChinesesayingofeveryonehasarulertojudgethe
performanceofthePAP.However,themeasurementwillchangefrom
timetotime.Thepassingmarkcanchangeandalsoitwillbeinfluencedby
otherstoo.

TheSingaporecase

Peereffects Threshold
1990s Lowmediacontrol HighPublictrust?
2010s Highsocialmedia LowPublictrust

Whydoesthresholdmakethedifference?

First,wehavetogivecredittothosepeoplewhovoiceoutagainstthe
PAPpoliciespastandpresent.Theykeeponremindingusthereisa
thresholdofpublictrustonthegovernment.However,thesamereminder
inthepastandpresentreceivesdifferentlevelofthresholdandpeer
effects.

Withouttheoppositionswewillneverseethechangeinthresholdlevel
andhence,theresultofpeereffects.JustimaginethecaseofJBJ,with
thecurrentthresholdlevelofsocialinjusticeandthealternativemedia,if
thereisanysocialcrowdfundingforhisdefamationcaseagainstthePAP
leaders,itwillcertainlydrawalargecrowdandsupportsthanbefore.
In1990s,Singaporeansgenerallyhaddifferentthresholdoftolerance
againstthePAPgovernmentascomparedtotoday.Peoplearemore
demandingnow.MRT,busservices,childcare,primaryoneregistration,
publichospitals,NationalService,CPF,younamethem,youwillseea
lowerthreshold,aloweracceptancelevel,alowerpassingmark.

AlowerthresholdalsomeansthePAPreceiveslessrespectfromthe
people.LessrespectcanalsomeanSingaporeansaretrustingthePAP
less.Hence,itisalowerpublictrust.

Inthepast,whenthePAPmademistakes,likethecaseofMasSelamat,
themainstreammediawouldgivethemagoodcoverandprojecting
anotherpictureandimage.Artificially,themediahelpedtomaintaina
higherleveloftolerancethresholdforthePAP.Hence,publicpeereffects
wouldn'ttakeplace.SameformanyISAanddefamationcases,the
onesidestorypreventedpeereffectstotakeplace.Itmayalsodueto
whatthePAPalwaysstressesthattheeconomyandprosperityarekeys
forSingaporeans,otherthingsaresecondary.So,wehavestagnant
thresholdandstagnantpeereffectsformanyyears.

Thisalsoreflectsinthegeneralelections.In1991,therewasasmall
breakthroughandtheoppositionsgot4MPseats.Itwentdowntotwo
later.Thekeypointhereissince1981,wealwayshaveoppositionMPin
theparliament.AsmallgroupofSingaporeansbelieveinchecksand
balances.Eventhresholdislowandnopeereffects,theycontinueto
supportapoliticaldiscourse.ThePAPtriedtocontainandrestrictthe
changeinthresholdandpeereffectsbychangingtheelectionrules.And
theyareverysuccessfullyinthepast.

ThisiswhyalossinGRCissignificanttoSingaporeansandthePAP.
Voterswilladjusttheirthresholdlevelthatwillaffectthefinalpeereffects
ofvotingpatterninfuture.SingaporeanshavesupportedoppositionMP,
fromone,two,tosixandseven.Thismeansthethresholdlevelis
changinginfavouroftheopposition.Thisiswhatsomeacademicscalla
honeymoonfortheopposition.Aweakeningthresholdofsupportforthe
PAPwillcertainlyresulttoastrongpeereffectsandsupportstothe
oppositions.

Whenwillthethresholdandpeereffectsstopchangingandreachanew
equilibrium?Orwhenwillthehoneymoonbeover?Thisisanopen
question.Ofcourse,thePAPhopestoputastoponitbyintroducingand
changingmanysocialpolicies.Butwillitwork?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCMeXDTB4lM