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Weighing the Week Ahead: Economic Fireworks?
oldprof (http://dashofinsight.com/author/oldprof/)
(6/28/14) With the stunning decline in Q1 GDP, the health of the US economy has once again taken center stage. The week ahead is
shortened by a Friday holiday, but is packed with important data releases. It will all be over Thursday morning, when many will quit
early and head for the beach.
In a quiet, low volume trading environment, we could see some early fireworks!
Prior Theme Recap
Last week I expected (http://dashofinsight.com/weighing-week-ahead-fed-behind-curve/) plenty of inflation talk leading up to
the release of the Feds preferred measure, the PCE index. That assessment was accurate. I also speculated that there might be a final
GDP revision exceeding 2%. That was an underbid! The story made plenty of news, but caused only a temporary reaction in stocks.
Bonds strengthened (lower yield) emphasizing the continuing disparity between those markets.
Naturally we would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. Good luck with that! Second best is planning what to look
for and how to react. That is the purpose of considering possible themes for the week ahead.
This Weeks Theme
With the Q114 GDP decline as context, the economic debate is once again wide open. It is time for a mid-year reality check, with
possible fireworks in store. I expect the media and punditry to examine a full range of economic possibilities. Here are the
candidates.
Stagflation Combine economic weakness with inflation and it is the road to the 70s. The Fed is boxed in and between a
rock and a hard place. Watch the early warning signs. Here is an example (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-if-janet-
yellen-is-wrong-2014-06-25) of this thinking.
Poor economic policy ObamaCare, tax policy, regulation. (WSJ commentary (http://online.wsj.com/articles/gdps-
obamacare-downgrade-1403738610) reflects this viewpoint).
Exceptional circumstances weather, sluggish health care enrollment, inventories. (Analysis and charts
(http://community.xe.com/forum/xe-market-analysis/yes-first-quarter-gdp-figure-was-anomaly) from Hale Stewart).
Things turned in March noted by those who follow frequent data. (Extensive discussion from New Deal Democrat
(http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2014/06/two-notes-about-q1-gdp.html)).
Expect a rebound weather delayed demand, health care rebounded, inventories will be rebuilt. (Morningstar
(http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=652452)). (Also Jared Bernstein via Mark Thoma
(http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2014/06/that-big-negative-q1-gdp-revision.html)).
A DASH OF INSIGHT
(HTTP://DASHOFINSIGHT.COM)
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