GreenATP

Green Applications & Tipping Points

Presentation at the
UCLA Anderson School of Business
by
Michael P. Totten
Chief Advisor, Green Economies
Conservation International
June 09-10, 2011
Unprecedented
Challenges of
Historical & Global
Magnitude
More absolute poor than any time
in human history 1 out of 4
[alongside more extreme wealth than ever]
M
a
s
s

p
o
v
e
r
t
y
Unending
Resource
Wars &
Conflicts
S
p
e
c
i
e
s

e
x
t
i
n
c
t
i
o
n
Species extinction by humans
1000x natural background rate
Extinctions
Human population
C
l
i
m
a
t
e

C
a
t
a
s
t
r
o
p
h
e
s
900ppm
P
a
r
t
s

p
e
r

M
i
l
l
i
o
n

C
O
2
Past planetary mass extinctions
triggered by high CO
2
>550ppm
TODAY: 387PPM
Where we will be by 2100
O
c
e
a
n
s

A
c
i
d
i
f
y
i
n
g
55 million years since oceans as acidic
business-as-usual emissions growth
threaten collapse of marine life food web
Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL
Global Circulation Models (GCM)
Negative Tipping Points
Source: Timothy M. Lentony , Hermann Held , Elmar Kriegler , Jim W. Hall , Wolfgang
Lucht , Stefan Rahmstorf and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, 2007. Tipping elements in
the Earth's climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA,
www.pnas.org/.
Unintended Geo-engineering Consequences
A significant fraction of CO
2
emissions remain in the atmosphere,
and accumulate over geological time spans of tens of thousands
of years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of
humanity and most life on earth.
human
extinction?
???? 2100
12 to 16
billion
70,000 years
ago humans
down to 2000
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with
the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities,
and significant costs involved in countering
terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or
neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly
harboring weapons of mass destruction
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL
Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change
environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends
approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost
of a clean environment."
a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining
the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:
Martin Weitzman
Where the world needs to go:
energy-related CO2 emissions per capita
Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on Americas Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.
Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.
???
2105 at 3% 2005
2 TO 3% Annual Average
Gross World Product
century growth rate
(~10 to 20x todays)
2105 at 2%
$500 trillion GWP
~$50,000 per cap
# in poverty?
$50 trillion GWP
~$7,500 per cap
2+ billion in
poverty?
$1,000 trillion GWP
~$100,000 per cap
# in poverty?
GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering
GENETICS
INFORMATICS
NANOTECH
AUTOROBOTICS
While non-linear complex
adaptive systems pervade
existence, humans have a
strong propensity to think
and act as if life is linear,
uncertainty is controllable,
the future free of surprises,
and planning is predictable
and compartmentalized
into silos.
Normal distributions are
assumed, fat-tail futures
are ignored.
Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too
differently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/
Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3
knowledge relationships of knowledge
Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames
Natural system
Technical system
Social system
Stored
Released
Variety Sameness
The adaptive cycle - a theory of the relationship of
transformation to resilience
Source: Resilience Alliance, www.resalliance.org/
Cross-Scale Interactions temporal & spatial
Source: Resilience Alliance, www.resalliance.org/
Can WE
Avert Multiple Catastrophes,
Avoid Irreversible Consequences,
and Make the Shift to
Healthy, Sustainable Economies?
OR,
Getting to
Maybe
via Emergent Collaboration Networks
Greening Economies
Locally to Globally
A Need for GreenATP
Green Apps & Tipping Points
Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10,
www.next10.org/
Harnessing the Busy Bees
The Universe of human activity
in Green Apps & Tipping Points
Green
ATP
GreenAPPs
User built
User driven
Green
ATP
greening city economics 24/7
by bit s & wits
billions forming & swarming
knowledge, for well-being,
value, prosperity & posterity
Green
ATP
User-built Public asset
Open source, Global access
Green
ATP
Greenest APPs via
ranking algorithms
More GreenerAPPs
collaboratively filtered
HIERARCHICAL CLUSTERS
Source: Albert-Lzl Barabsi & Eric Bonabeau, Scale-Free Networks, Scientific American, May 2003
A change in culture
A change in laws
A change in resource
distribution/availability
A change in strategies
A change in procedures
A change in resource
distribution/availability
A change in conversation
A change in routine
A change in resource
commitment or influence
A change in heart
A change of habits
A change of ambition
Institutional level
Organizational level
Network/Group level
Individual level
water
food
energy
mobile knowbility
[EPPs]
Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success
Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become
climate positive and revenue positive
Radical Energy Efficiency Ecological Green Power
Ecosystem
Protection
Adopting Win-Win-Win PORTFOLIOS
1)RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Pursue vigorous, rigorous & continuous
improvements that reap monetary savings, ancillary
benefits, & GHG reductions (same w/ water &
resources)
2)PROTECT THREATENED ECOSYSTEMS
Add conservation carbon offset options to portfolio
that deliver triple benefits (climate protection,
biodiversity preservation, and promotion of
community sustainable development)
3)ECOLOGICAL GREEN POWER/FUELS
Select only verifiable green power/fuels that are
climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow
poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts
Adopting Portfolios of Best Policies
Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption
becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.
E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/
Closing the Loop Reducing Use of Virgin Resources &
Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients
Cradle-to-Cradle is an innovative and sustainable industrial model that focuses on
design of products and a production cycle that strives to produce no waste or
pollutants at all stages of the lifecycle.
Source: Braungart and McDonough Cradle-to-Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things (2002)
Reducing a Products Environmental Footprint
Spider diagram is one way to show how a particular products environmental
effects or footprint are reduced over time through incremental improvements in
sustainable design. This diagram shows the dimensions of the footprint in years
2009, 2025 and 2050.
Source: California Green Chemistry Initiative, Final Report, California EPA and Dept. Toxic Substances Control, December 2008
Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the
incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is 55-80 billion per year between 20102020 for
developing countries and 4050 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or
about half the 215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
CO
2
Abatement potential & cost for 2020
Breakdown by abatement type
9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture)
6 Gt energy efficiency
4 Gt low-carbon energy supply
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
Billion tons CO
2
14 million hectares burned each
year emitting 5 to 8 billion tons
CO
2
per year. More emissions
than world transport system of
cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships
US
GHG
levels
Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
Billion tons CO
2
5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year
in mitigation services available in
poor nations, increasing their
revenues by billions of dollars
annually ; and saving better-off
nations billions of dollars.
US
GHG
levels
Outsourcing CO
2
reductions to become Climate Positive
High Quality Multi-Benefit
$4 million to protect the Tayna and
Kisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves in
eastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservation
area in Peru.
Will prevent more than 900,000 tons of
CO
2
from being released into the
atmosphere.
Using Climate, Community & Biodiversity
Carbon Standards.
Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
CCS REDD
Geological storage (CCS) vs
Ecological storage (REDD)
Carbon Mitigation Cost
U.S. fossil Electricity CO
2
mitigation cost annually
(2.4 GtCO
2
in 2007)
~$100 billion
~3 per kWh
~$18 billion
~0.5 per kWh
$ per ton CO
2
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
Reduced Emissions Deforestation
& Degradation (REDD)
Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008
0
U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007
2.4 billion tons CO
2
emissions
Tropical Deforestation 2007
13 million hectares burned
7 billion tons CO2 emissions
$7.50 per ton CO2
1/2 cent per kWh
$18 billion/yr REDD trade
Poverty reduction
Prevent Species loss
A win-win-win
outcome
A win-win-win
outcome
1824 Liters per year
(10.6 km/l x 19,370 km per year)
4.8 tons CO
2
emissions per
year
~$48 to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation at $10 per tCO
2
Adds 7 cents per gallon
=
In the wake of 14
million hectares of
tropical forests
burned down each
year, some 16 million
species populations
go extinct.
Endemic species
comprising the
natural laboratory of
biocomplexity with
future values yet to
be assessed or
discovered.
Irreversible Loss
One-quarter all medical drugs
used in developed world from
plants.
Cortisone and first oral
contraceptives derived from
Central American yam species
Pacific yew in western US
yielded anti-cancer drug taxol
Vincristine from the Rosy
Periwinkle in Madagascar
Drug to prevent blood clotting
from snake venom
Active ingredient aspirin
synthesized from willow trees.
Bioprospecting biological wealth using
bioinformatic tools from field to lab
Biomolecules prospected
from different bio-resources
for pesticidal, therapeutic and
other agriculturally important
compounds
Biomolecules for Industrial and
Medicinal Use
Novel Genes/Promoters to
address Biotic and Abiotic
Stress
Genes for Transcription Factors
Metabolic Engineering Pathways
Nutritional Enhancement
Bioavailability of Elements
Microbial Biodiversity
Bioprospecting biological wealth using
biotechnology tools from field to lab
Ultra-low Carbon
multi-beneficial
Energy, Mobility &
Utility Service Options
1. Economically affordable
2. Safe
3. Clean
4. Risk is low and manageable
5. Resilient and flexible
6. Ecologically sustainable
7. Environmentally benign
8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically
9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures
10. Endogenous learning capacity
11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative
externalities & amplifying positive externalities
12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption
Dozen Desirable Criteria
including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?
through the entire life cycle?
through the entire lifespan?
from financial and price volatility?
to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?
no adverse impacts on biodiversity?
maintains air, water, soil quality?
adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?
low recovery cost and lost time?
Intrinsic transformative innovation opportunities?
scalable production possibilities?
off radar of terrorists or military planners?
Attributes of Green Energy, Mobility &
Utility Energy Services
A Defensible Green
Energy Criteria Scoring
Efficiency
BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste
power
Geo-
thermal
Nat
gas
Bio-
fuels
Oil
imports
Coal
CCS
nuclear Tar
sand
Oil
shale
Coal to
liquids
Coal
no
CCS
Promote
CHP +
biowastes
Economically Affordable
Safe
Clean
Secure
Resilient & flexible
Ecologically sustainable
Environmentally benign
Fails gracefully, not catastro
Rebounds easily from failures
Endogenous learning capacity
Robust experience curves
Uninteresting military target

eta
SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation
Universal symbol for Efficiency
The best thing
about low-
hanging fruit
is that it keeps
growing back.
Now use 1/2 global power
50% efficiency savings achievable
90% cost savings
ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS
Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5
th
Annual California Climate Change
Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
$2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 59 gigatons CO
2
Reduction
PassiveHaus
Public library North Carolina
Heinz Foundation
Green Building, PA
Oberlin College
Ecology Center,
Ohio
The Costs and
Financial Benefits
of Green Buildings,
A Report to
Californias
Sustainable
Building Task
Force, Oct. 2003, by
Greg Kats et al.
$500 to $700 per
m
2
net present
value
Beyond Zero Net
Energy Buildings
Daylighting could displace 100s GWs
Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,
consume half of a commercial building
electricity.
Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time
lighting, eliminating massive amount of power
plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in
avoided costs.
Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.
High-E Windows displacing pipelines
Full use of high performance windows in the
U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan
pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as
well as accrue over $15 billion per year of
savings on energy bills.
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm
CC ind
cogen
bldg scale
cogen
recycled
ind cogen
end-use
efficiency
CCS
Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh)
US current
average
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing
one dollar to make or save delivered electricity
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm
CC ind
cogen
bldg scale
cogen
recycled
ind cogen
2 50
33
25
end-use
efficiency
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm
CC ind
cogen
bldg scale
cogen
recycled
ind cogen
2
end-use
efficiency
47
32
23
1: 93 kg
CO2/$
Coal-fired CO
2
emissions displaced
per dollar spent on electrical services
New York
California
USA minus CA & NY
Per Capital
Electricity
Consumption
165 GW
Coal
Power
Plants
Californians have
net savings of
$1,000 per family
[EPPs]
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from
revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants
California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting
lower cost efficiency over new power plants or
hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.
California signed MOUs with Provinces in China
to share IRP expertise (now underway in J iangsu).
CHANGE
The Stone
Age did
not end
because it
ran out of
stones
The Fossil
Fuel Age
wont end
because it
ran out of
fossils
SUN FUSION PHOTONS
Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients
1336 Watts per m
2
from the Photon Bit stream
A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere
worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never
failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility
afflicting most energy and power sources used in driving
economic activity
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008, p. 366. The figure is based on National
Petroleum Council, 2007 after Craig, Cunningham and Saigo.
Oil
Gas
Uranium
Coal
ANNUAL Wind
Hydro
Photosynthesis
ANNUAL Solar Energy
Annual global energy consumption by humans
SOLAR PHOTONS
ACCRUED IN A MONTH
EXCEED THE EARTHS
FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES
Harnessing 1/7500
th
of the Suns
delivered photons is technically,
economically & financially feasible.
Scientists confident that 10X this
amount can be harnessed this century.
GreenATP can drive transformational
innovations essential for shifting to a
solar powered global economy --
buyers, incentives, financing, training,
R&D, standards, training, policies, etc
In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by
applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area
on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and
in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.
Experts say we wouldnt have to appropriate a single acre of new
land to make PV our primary energy source!
90% of Americas current
electricity could be supplied with
PV systems built in the brown-
fieldsthe estimated 2+ million
hectares of abandoned industrial
sites that exist in our nations
cities.
Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
Cleaning Up
Brownfield
Sites w/
PV solar
Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90%
total US electricity from brownfields
Source: Dave Miller, President, DuPont Electronics & Communications, GW Solar Institute Symposium,
The Critical Role of Materials in the Solar PV Industry, April 19, 2010
Photovoltaics is an Excellent Creator of Jobs
Innovative Solar Financing Options
Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis
Solar power beats thermal plants within their
construction lead timeat zero carbon price
SunSlate Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
Material
Replaced
Economic
Measure
Beijing Shanghai
Polished
Stone
NPV ($)
BCR
PBP (yrs)
+$18,586
2.33
1
+$14,237
2.14
1
Aluminum
NPV ($)
BCR
PBP (yrs)
+$15,373
1.89
2
+$11,024
1.70
2
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)
& Payback Periods (PBP) for Architectural BIPV
(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and
Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
China Economics of Commercial BIPV
Building-Integrated Photovoltaics
Reference costs of facade-cladding materials
BIPV is so economically attractive because it
captures both energy savings and savings from
displacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:
Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
Economics of Commercial BIPV
China Economics of Commercial BIPV
MW
Compared to:
Wind power 121,000 MW
Nuclear power 350,000 MW
Hydro power 770,000 MW
Natural Gas power 1 million MW
Coal power 2 million MW
Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008
40% annual growth rate
Doubling <22 months
40% annual growth rate through
2030 could provide twice current
total world energy use
2009
21GW
[158,000 in 2009]
To an energy
bill half this
amount, and
75% solar
services.
Shifting from a $2500 trillion energy bill
this century, 75% from fossil fuels
Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of all
personal motorized transportation in China.
120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China
$3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWh
twice as expensive as solar PV electricity
Source: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons
for Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up
1
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 2
PV NUCLEAR
Billion $ 2008 constant
Civilian Nuclear Power
(1948 2009)
vs.
Solar Photovoltaics
(1975-2009)
$4.2
$85
Shifting Government R&D Focus and Funds
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
2009 2013 2016 2020 2023 2027 2031 2034 2038 2041 2045 2049 2052 2056
What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century?
Solar PV Growth @ 20% per year
>10X total world energy consumption than in 2009
15000 GW total world consumption in 2009
G
i
g
a
W
a
t
t
s
(
G
W
)
2071
@
15%
2103
@
10%
Rate Largely Driven by Incentives, Finance Innovations, Public Policies & Regulations
2032
@
40%
Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.
GIS Mapping the Solar
Potential of Urban Rooftops
100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,
WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS Achievable this Century
Catalyzing solar smart poly-grids
Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energy
provided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream based
on real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with
administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.
Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions
Smart Grid design based on digital map algorithms continuously
calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of
urban solar panel locations based on multi-criteria targets.
Wind Trillion$
Figures of Merit
Great Plains area
1,200,000 mi
2
Provide 100% U.S. electricity
400,000 3MW wind turbines
Platform footprint
6 mi
2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine
>6 mi
2
Total WindFarm spacing area
37,500 mi
2
Still available for farming
and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi
2
)
CO
2
U.S. electricity sector
40% USA total GHG emissions
95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,
South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains
= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Although agriculture controls about 70%
of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4
to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the
greatest economic booms in American
history for Great Plains rural
communities, while also enabling one of
worlds largest restorations of native
prairie ecosystems
How?
Wind Farm Royalties Could Double
farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy
$0 $60
windpower royalty
$200 $0
farm commodity revenues
$50 $64
windpower farm non-wind farm
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Crop revenue
Govt. subsidy
Wind profits
Wind Royalties Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
Montana
South Dakota
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Nebraska
Iowa
Oklahoma
Texas
GREAT PLAINS
WIND RESOURCES
in varying stages of digital
Apps --technical, training
ecological, economic,
financial assessment,
mapping & mashups,
visualization, installation,
operation & post-
production options
Potential Synergisms
Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s
Again this century, but worse
Intensive farming
and grazing
practices and
deforestation in
China have led to
more frequent dust
storms, like this one
in 2001 that swept
aerosol particles
into the Great Lakes
region of the US,
and even left a
sprinkling in the
Alps mountains in
Europe.
China
Opps
Offshore Wind Trillion$
Brazil Offshore Wind
China Offshore Wind
Offshore Wind potential several times greater than total world energy consumption
USA Offshore Wind >7 meters/second
Announced turbine developments
Corn ethanol
Cellulosic ethanol
Wind-battery
turbine spacing
Wind turbines
ground footprint
Solar-battery
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford
University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable
resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
Orangutan habitat destruction
for biodiesel oil palm plantations
Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off
Instead, Use Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for
Biofuel Production through Algae Systems
Mississippi River Delta
Yangtze River Pearl River
Small Land footprint
Only Wastewater as Feedstock
Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs
Shallow production area
30x less land area than crop
biofuels for same yields
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
Locally diverse algae produce biomass (Biomimicry)
CO
2
ATS
Biodiesel
Fermenter
(Clostridium butylicum
C. Pasteurianum, etc.)
C
6
H
12
O
6
C
4
H
9
OH + CO
2
+
Biobutanol
Ethanol
Acetone
Lactic Acid
Acetic Acid
Oil
ALGAL
BIOMASS
Solvent
Extraction
Nutrient Rich Water
(Sewage, polluted river water)
+ atmospheric CO
2
(or power plant stack gases)
Clean water
Lower N P P, higher O
2
+ pH
Less CO
2
in atmosphere
Transesterification
Organic
Fertilizer
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
Algae
butanol
biodiesel
Corn (ethanol)
Soy (biodiesel)
Estimated Biofuel Production
gallons per acre [ha per year]
1520
500
----
2000
----
100
+
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
[3,770 gal/ha/yr]
[5,000 gal/ha/yr]
[1,250 gal/ha/yr]
[250 gal/ha/yr]
Biofuel Production from Algal
Turf Scrubber Biomass
(50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)
water
2 billion people lack safe water
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking
dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach
adulthood stunted for good.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust
physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of
dollars in lost income to the poor
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
A new water disinfector for the
developing worlds poor
Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for
disinfection
Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1
ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1
m
3
)
Low cost: 4 disinfects 1 ton of water
Reliable, Mature components
Can treat unpressurized water
Rapid throughput: 12 seconds
Low maintenance: 4x per year
No overdose risk
Fail-safe
DESIGN CRITERIA
Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor
WaterHealth Intl device
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,
Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-
water%202008.pdf
WHIs Investment Cost Advantage vs.
Other Treatment Options
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
WaterHealth International
The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of
pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and
Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per
person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of
our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of
operating and maintaining the equipment and facility.
Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these micro-utilities, thus
creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities
for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water
to outlying areas.
And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user
fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.
WaterHealth International
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
FOOD
starving
At the same time, climate-triggered weather disasters are expected
to severely reduce global agricultural yields by 20 to 40 %.
Projected reductions in yield in some African countries could be as
much as 50% by 2020.
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of
land may be required for agriculture.
Combined with the 800 million ha of
additional land needed for medium growth
bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact
ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.
Food, Fuel, Species
Tradeoffs?
Using low-input, high-yield micro-farming methods can
grow complete vegetarian diets on 1 hectare of land
sufficient for 100 people.
Urban food production worldwide is a key climate
mitigation and adaptation strategy, enhancing food security
and system resilience against ever-increasing threat of
sudden supply disruptions and price spikes.
Urban farming for many populations around the world is
literally an insurance hedge against the threat of persistent
hunger.
FOOD SECURITY & AGROBIODIVERSITY
Currently, 15% of food is grown in urban areas. Many cities
could grow complete food diets on 10% of urban land area.
COMMUNITY FOODSCAPES & EDIBLE SCHOOLYARDS
WILD DIVERSITY & HEIRLOOM SEEDS
There are more than 20,000 known species of edible plants in the world and yet, today, less than
20 species of plants now supply most of our plant foods; just four plant species corn, wheat,
rice and potatoes feed more people than the next 26 plant species combined
Using Green Apps & Tipping Points for
Growing Food for Self, Family, and Income
Mobile
Knowbility
Complete the Streets
Climate mitigation actions
Web-based routes
Bicycle promotion programs
Walkability city programs
Source: Reid Royer Priedhorsky and Loren G. Terveen, The Value of Geographic Wikis, 2010
Geographic Wikis
Handhelds can enable &
enoble citizens,
consumers, families,
neighborhoods,
communities, regions,
nations and the world
human society towards
practical wisdom
End User Green Tipping Points
Barefoot Womens Solar Engineering Assoc.
Characteristics of crowdsourcing processes
Source: David Geiger et al, Managing the Crowd: Towards a Taxonomy of Crowdsourcing Processes, Proceedings of the
Seventeenth Americas Conference on Information Systems, Detroit, Aug. 4th-7th 2011
19 distinct process types identified from46 crowdsourcing
examples. Subsequent cluster analysis shows general patterns
among these types and indicates a link to certain applications of
crowdsourcing. 96 theoretically possible process types (for the
current dimensions) have been identified so far.
FINDINGS
Collective Intelligence (CI) has already been proven to work, and CI
systems can be designed and managed to fit specific needs.
CI building blocks, or genes, can be recombined to create the right
kind of system.
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
The Collective Intelligence Genome
THE LEADING QUESTION
How can you get crowds to do what your business needs done?
Successful Commercial & Social Collective Intelligence Web Sites
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
The Crowd gene is most useful in situations where the resources
and skills needed to perform an activity are distributed widely or
reside in places that are not known in advance.
When the Crowd gene is useful
Innovative Collaborative Knowledge Networks, http://www.ickn.org/innovation.html
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
Developing a detailed decision tree
This approach then asks a series of sequential,
logical questions, the answers of which form
specific guidelines for all CI systems:
1. Can activities be divided into pieces? Are
necessary resources widely distributed or in
unknown locations?
2. Are there adequate incentives to
participate?
3. What kind of activity needs to be done?
4. Can the activity be divided into small,
independent pieces?
5. Are only a few good (best) solutions
needed?
6. Does the entire group need to abide by the
same decision?
7. Are money or resources required to
exchange hands or motivate decision?
Flowchart for the design of a CI system
Source: Noah Radford, How to Build a Collective Intelligence Platform to Crowdsource
Almost Anything, August 21, 2010, http://news.noahraford.com
Noah Raford, When Collective
Intelligence Genes are Useful,
2010, www.noahraford.com
Noah Raford, When Collective Intelligence Genes are Useful, 2010, www.noahraford.com
Green
ATP
60
month
Goal
Green
ATP
Green ATP Operating Budget
THE TEAM
ANNUAL
(fully loaded)
MONTHLY
(fully loaded)
60 MONTHS
(fully loaded)
Chief Persuader $ 200,000 $ 16,667 $ 1,000,000
Chief Networker $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000
Chief Interfacer $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000
Chief Engineer $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000
Finance (1) $ 10,000 $ 833 $ 50,000
Legal (1) $ 10,000 $ 833 $ 50,000
Support (2) $ 30,000 $ 2,500 $ 150,000
Technical equipment
and services
$ 80,000 $ 6,667 $ 400,000
Travel & Promotion $ 25,000 $ 2,083 $ 125,000
TOTAL $ 805,000 $ 67,083 $ 4,025,000
Depends on who you are. Amazon (e-commerce) is generating $189 per user. Google
(search) is generating $24 per user. Facebook (social networking) is only generating $4
per user according to this chart from JP Morgan's Imran Khan.
How much is a unique visitor
worth on the Internet?
Potential Growth Scenarios
INKIND assumes 1 hour of Volunteer time per week per end user valued at $9/hr
PRODUCT purchases assumes $100 per end user per year
SERVICE transaction earnings assumes 2 percent of Product purchases
END USER
ENGAGEMENT
SCENARIOS
1 hour of
Volunteer
time/week @
$9/hour value
(million $ per
year)
Site Green
Product
Purchases
(million $
per year)
2%
Service
earnings
on
purchases
(million $)
TOTAL
service
earnings+
volunteer
time (million
$ per year)
TOTAL
Service
Earnings
only (million
$ per year)
Outcomes?
100,000,000 $ 46,800 $ 10,000 $ 1,000 $ 47,800 $ 1,000
WILD
SUCCESS
10,000,000 $ 4,680 $ 1,000 $ 100 $ 4,780 $ 100
VIRAL
SUCCESS
1,000,000 $ 468 $ 100 $ 10 $ 478 $ 10 SUCCESS
100,000 $ 47 $ 10 $ 1 $ 48 $ 1
BUDGET
SURPLUS
10,000 $ 5 $ 1 $ 0 $ 5 $ 0.1
BUDGET
DEFICIT
Green
ATP
Michael P. Totten, mtotten@conservation.org