Dr. Aram G. Sogomonian Constellation Energy Commodities Group Commodities 2007: Agriculturals, Energy & Metals London, England January 19, 2007 2 Constellation Energy Group (CEG) Review CEG provides energy services across the entire energy value chain Our physical businesses scale and scope enable us to manage our risk at a lower cost than our peers when pursuing profitability 3 Constellation Energy Commodities Group (CCG) Business Overview CCG operates in fuels and wholesale competitive supply. CCG provides physical products to customers across the value chain. CCGs traditional base is power, with increasing focus on coal and gas. Three business principles have driven our sustained growth: We focus where we have an edge Providing physical energy products to customers upstream and downstream. We compete to be the low cost provider Our portfolio management capabilities and scale have helped us to preserve margins. We deploy risk capital carefully We do not compete on risk tolerance or cost of capital. We stick to our strengths in managing physically delivered products. 4 Four business areas, all grounded in our business model of providing physical products to upstream and downstream customers, and relying on effective, conservative portfolio management CCG Business Model Natural Gas Coal Power Portfolio Management & Trading Coal and Freight Power Gas Coal Generation Production Mining Transmissio n Midstream/ Interstates Shipping/ Freight Power Distributors/ Munis/Co-Ops Gas Distributors/ Power Generators Power Generators/ Industrial Users Producers Consumers Integrated businesses that are suitable complements to our market-leading power business Intermediary role linking producers and consumers Physical orientation with contractual assets along the value chain Customer-centric model, leveraging knowledge of the physical system 5 Coal Business Overview Competitive Focus Transfer of successful power strategy to coal Global coal services business Manage global coal supply portfolio Provide structured contracts to meet domestic and international customer needs Focus on market areas of opportunity Delivery Contracts CCG works with downstream customers to maximize the flexibility in their supply channels Supply Contracts Producers prefer to sell coal as is, where is to accommodate production variability Transportation and logistics CCG logistics expertise and transportation network reduces transport costs 6 Changing Environment for Coal Industry Players Increasing competition in generation in many markets due to deregulation Increased risks in contract execution Volatile freight market Demurrage risks Inland transport constraints trains and barges Emerging market risk in sourcing Changing domestic environmental regimes Increasing SOx, NOx, and CO2 meaning less certainty in future generation and more focus on coal quality Supply patterns changing Declining domestic production in Europe and USA New coal mine developments in Pacific basin Changing Coal Market dynamics European Power and Coal financial markets driving world forward Coal Price Influx of new players into markets increases volatility. 7 Value Provided to Coal Consumers CCG provides alternative structures for purchasing to meet customers needs CCG values fuel flexibility, both domestic and international, and will work with and reward customers with lower prices for quality expansion CCG provides logistics expertise in managing deliveries to station gate, including full outsource deals Managing shipping, demurrage, port, rail, barge deliveries Structures can incorporate: Ability to flex up and down on sulphur and volume Ability to change from fixed price to floating price or floating price to fixed price Cross-commodity transactions including tolling and cross-commodity indexation Multiple currency capability 8 Value Provided to Coal Producers Our strong credit rating allows term fixed or indexed price deals with adequate credit assurance Offer significant flexibility in pricing of purchases Ability to change from fixed price to floating price or floating price to fixed price allows producers to determine when to fix prices Multiple currency capability CCGs large shipment program means regular and sizable coal offtake with reliable logistics performance Diverse, quality-flexible, global customer base means CCG can assist producers in managing unforeseen changes in production targets and quality Term flexibility Ability to contract for long terms to facilitate mine development/ capital investment Ability to transact medium, spot, and afloat 9 Freight Business Overview Competitive Focus Offshoot global coal business with primary responsibility to provide services for Coal Business. Provide structured contracts to meet Freight Owners and international coal and Iron ore consumers needs. Focus on Owners looking to look in a rate of return on the asset with a player who is a significant user and shipper of coal with an exemplary record for performance and with a strong balance sheet. Focus on end Consumers who need to outsource their freight requirements or looking for partners with strong backhaul presence looking to provide an efficient efficient and alternative supplier of competitively priced Front Haul rates 10 International Freight Market One of the first truly global market in world history Very volatile and cyclical tightly linked to world economy Standard routes, trusted indices, transparent pricing mechanism Vessels are interchangeable Willingness from most market participants to trade freight Active market going out 2 years Well established and court tested industry specific physical contracts ISDA flavoured contracts becoming the norm for freight derivatives Customer relationship paramount Highly intermediated 11 CCG Freight Business Growth Aspirations Natural growth alongside the Coal business which will be shipping 23 million metric tonne by 2008 CCG Capesize Fleet to grow to 30 vessels by 2008 Building out into Panamax operating in 2007 to prepare for growth in coal shipments from Indonesia into the USA. Focus on supplying front haul services to Korean and Japanese Steel Mills. Focus on supplying freight services direct to our present Coal customers. Move into Vessel acquisition to support and compliment the Underlying trading business. 12 Risk Management Challenges Complex logistical network Lack of price transparency, outside of major coal indices Multi-dimensional coal quality differences and vessel chartering options (ownership, time charter, voyage charter; vessel size, age, etc.) Presence of various flexibilities in the coal/freight network that are difficult to quantify and measure Migration of coal production to developing countries, which gives rise to Emerging market risks: sovereign, political, mine contingency, currency. Relatively weak creditworthiness of coal/freight counterparties Operational risks related to physical movements of coal and port operations 13 International Coal & Freight Network Optimize and trade around the position going forward Strengthen competitive position with coal producers in availability and price Fortify relationship with coal buyers Proved Reserves by 2005 ('000 MMT) 0.4 19.9 50.3 254.4 287.1 296.9 0.4 7.7 50.2 115.7 112.3 192.6 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Mid East South & Central America Africa North America Europe & Eurasia Asia Pacific Total Coal Anthracite & Bituminous Coal Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 14 Contract Details & Risks Mitigants Buy coal at source A, sell coal at destination B, buy forward freight from A to B to lock in the profits Contract details Coal: deal term, buy/sell quantity, contract prices, coal quality Freight: charter term, vessel size, freight rate, freight route Risks and mitigations Lay off price risk through physical positions Limited Liquidity Hedge the currency exposure at the point of transacting Currency Risk Provisional price setting and reconciliations Lengthy Time Lag Hedging through, for example, US TIP Inflation risk Rejection limits within our multi source contract rejection limits into Korea and Europe Quality risk CCG Master Agreement with clauses for default protect Credit risks Forward coal contracts, freight index, time charter contracts Market price uncertainty Mitigant Risk 15 Deal Evaluation Deal values Expected profit margin Credit worthiness and credit charge Hedging cost Miscellaneous charge Risk capital requirements Market risk (1-day VaR, 4 sigma) of energy scaled by N days to liquidate residual open position and basis Credit risk (maximum potential exposure times default probability) Margin risk (liquidity cost of issuing letter of credit and contingent liability costs) Incremental values/VaRs to current coal portfolio 16 Coal & Freight Flexibilities Multiple coal sources and destinations Differentiated by coal quality, prices, and availability Potential choices of vessel types and freight routes Vessel type: CapeSize, PanaMax, HandyMax, HandySize Freight routes: FrontHaul, BackHaul, TransAtlantic, TransPacific Chartering options: Time charter, Voyage charter Coal quality differentials and values in emission market Calorific value, Sulfur content, Ash content Coal buy/sell quantity x% swing options Timing flexibilities Scheduling deliveries at a preferable time during a quarter or beyond Option to break IWL (institute warranty limits) on this vessel Access to ice bound areas restricted between 15 th December and 31 st April 17 Problem Description Evaluate coal/freight deals Modeling of stochastic processes of coal prices and freight rates Dependence structure should be captured Deal evaluated based on contract details and market forecasts Identify individual new promising coal/freight deals through Heuristics Compare coal prices at potential source/destination and the freight rate in between Identify promising new coal/freight deals, schedule time chartered vessels and optimize all resources through Portfolio Optimization Maximize profitability with risk control Observe all contractual and operational constraints Take market uncertainty into account via stochastic programming Locations of forward buys/sells, forward prices and spread curves CCG and counterpartys swing option +/- x% on contracted quantity Different vessel sizes / voyage routes for coal delivery Scheduling of coal deliveries at preferable time within contract allowance Reduce problem complexity by identifying potential coal sources/destinations and freight routes 18 Portfolio Optimization Problem Formulation Objective: Maximize risk adjusted profit Constraints Coal buy/supply contractual positions Coal supply at source and demand at destinations Vessel capacity and portability Voyage time of coal delivery Warehouse inventory control Uncertainty Coal prices / freight rates Define scenarios of discrete price levels Coal quantity swing option For option buyer: relaxed constraints in our buy contract For option seller: define scenarios of counterpartys exercising option Coal grade flexibility Connect different coal grades by defining a grade replacement exercise cost matrix, and relax constraints to specific coal grade Methodology Deterministic programming: for market estimation Stochastic programming: formulate as a multi-stage problem and determine scenario dependent business plans 19 Model Output For individual deals valuation based on forward coal prices / freight rates Expected value and risks of the current coal contract Expected value and risks of the time charter freight contract Expected value and risks of the current portfolio For portfolio valuation based on portfolio optimization Promising new coal deals (time, from, to, quantity) Voyage scheduling of time chartered vessels (time, from, to, quantity) Voyage charter to be acquired from market in future for coal delivered (time, from, to, quantity) Incremental value and risks of adding one new coal contract into the portfolio Value of the time charter freight contract based on the projected vessel schedules Scenario-dependent business plans Evaluate each coal/freight flexibility Identify and understand variables impacting the value of each flexibility Prioritize available flexibilities in terms of value Value of flexibilities at the portfolio level Focus Commercial efforts on most valuable flexibilities 20 Literatures Asset liability management Wang and Neufville (2004), Building real options into physical systems with stochastic mixed-integer programming. 8th Real Options Annual International Conference in Montreal, Canada. Energy market Knittel (2002), Alternative regulatory methods and firm efficiency: stochastic frontier evidence from the U.S. electricity industry, the Review of Economics and Statistics Sekar (2005), Carbon dioxide capture from coal-fired power plants: A Real Options Analysis, MIT Laboratory for Energy & the Environment report. Deng, Shen, and Sun (2006), Stochastic co-optimization for hydro-electric power generation in multi markets, to appear, IEEE Trans. Power Systems. Stochastic programming Birge and Louveaux (1997), Introduction to Stochastic Programming, Springer, New York. Freund (2004), Optimization under uncertainty, working paper. Dantzig and Infanger (1997), Intelligent control and optimization under uncertainty with application to hydro power, European Journal of Operational Research. Wallace and Fleten (2003), Stochastic Programming Models in Energy, in: Ruszczynski and Shapiro (eds.), Stochastic Programming, Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science.