92 11.

502
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
LESSON 19:
THE POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
The Poisson distribution is generally used when measuring
the number of occurrences of something (# of successes) over
an interval or time period.
The assumptions of a Poisson probability distribution are:
The probability of the occurrence of an event is constant for
all subintervals.
There can be no more than one occurrence in each
subinterval.
Occurrences are independent; that is, the number of
occurrences in any non-overlapping intervals is independent
of one another.
The Poisson Probability Distribution
Function, Mean and Variance
The random variable X is said to follow the Poisson probabil-
ity distribution if it has the probability function:
!
) (
x
e
x P
x

=
, for ... 2 , 1 , 0 = x (1)
where
) (x P = the probability of x successes over a given time or
space, given

= the expected number of successes per time or

space unit; > 0.
@ 2.71828 (the base for natural logarithms)
The mean and variance of the Poisson probability distribu-
tion are:
= = ) (X E
x
and = = ] ) [(
2 2
x x
X E (1)
The Poisson probability distribution is an important discrete
probability distribution for a number of applications, includ-
ing:
1. The number of failures in a large computer system during a
given day
2. The number of delivery trucks to arrive at a central
warehouse in an hour
3. The number of customers to arrive for flights during each
15-minute time interval from 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM on
weekdays
4. The number of customers to arrive at a checkout aisle in
your local grocery store during a particular time interval.
Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution
Let X be the number of successes resulting from n independent
trials, each with probability of success, . The distribution of
the number of successes X is binomial, with mean n. If the
number of trials n is large and np is of only moderate size
(preferably n 7), this distribution can be approximated by
the Poisson distribution with . n = the probability
function of the approximating distribution is then:
!
) (
) (
x
n e
x P
x n

=
for x = 0,1,2, (2)
Jointly Distributed Discrete Random Variables
Two production lines manufacture a certain type of item.
Suppose that the capacity (on any given day) is 5 items for Line I
and 3 items for Line II. Assume that the number of items
actually produced by either production line is a random variable.
Let (X, Y) represent the 2-dimensional random variable yielding
the # items produced by Line I and Line II, respectively. The
following table represents the Joint Probability Function of X
and Y:
) ( ) , ( y Y x X P y x P = = =
Table 12 Joint Probability Function of X and Y
y
\
x

0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0 .01 .03 .05 .07 .09 P
Y
(0)
=.25
1 .01 .02 .04 .05 .06 .08 P
Y
(1)
=.26
2 .01 .03 .05 .05 .05 .06 P
Y
(2)
=.25
3 .01 .02 .04 .06 .06 .05 P
Y
(3)
=.24
P
X
(0)
=.03
P
X
(1)
=.08
P
X
(2)
=.16
P
X
(3)
=.21
P
X
(4)
=.24
P
X
(5)
=.28
? ?P(x,y
) ? ?

From this table:
The probability of line 1 producing 2 items and line 2 produc-
ing 0 items is P(2,0) = .03
The probability of line 1 producing at most 2 items and line 2
producing at most 1 item is P(0,0) + P(0,1) + P(0,2) + P(1,0) +
P(1,1,) + P(1,2) = .11
The probability of line 1 producing no items is P(X=0) = .03
The probability of line 2 producing 2 items is P(Y=2) = .25.

>0 ) , , ( :
) , (
y x P y
y x P
=P
x
(x)=P(X=x)

>0 ) , , ( :
) , (
y x P x
y x P
=P
y
(y)= P(Y=y)
This merely means we get the column totals and row totals in
the table. These PDFs of X and Y are now referred to as the
marginal PDFs.
Of course, to be a joint PDF for (X,Y), p(x,y) must satisfy the
following 2 properties:
(1) P(x,y)>0 for all (x,y)
(2) P(x,y) =1
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
11.502 93
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
Joint Probability Function
Let X and Y be a pair of discrete random variables. Their joint
probability function ex-presses the probability that simulta-
neously X takes the specific value x and Y takes the value y, as a
function of x and y. The notation used is so,
) ( ) , ( y Y x X P y x P = = =
Deviation of the Marginal Probability Function
Let X and Y be a pair of jointly distributed random variables.
In this context the probabil-ity function of the random variable
X is called its marginal probability function and is obtained by
summing the joint probabilities over all possible values; that is,

=
y
y x P x P ) , ( ) (
(3)
Similarly, the marginal probability function of the random
variable Y is

=
x
y x P y P ) , ( ) (
(4)
An example of these marginal probability functions is shown
in the lower row and the right column in Table 5.12.
Properties of Joint Probability Functions of Discrete
Random Variables
Let X and Y be discrete random variables with joint probability
function
) , ( y x P
. Then
1.
) , ( y x P
0 for any pair of values x and y
2. The sum of the joint probabilities over all possible pairs of
values must be 1.
What is the probability that line 2 produces 2 items given that
line 1 has produced 3 items?
P(Y=2| X=3) = P
y| x
(2| 3) =
) 3 (
) 2 , 3 (
x
P
P
=
21 .
05 .
=.2381
In this same way, we can find the Conditional Probability
Function of Y| x and X| y.
Conditional Probability Function
Let X and Y be a pair of jointly distributed discrete random
variables. The conditional probability function of the random
variable Y, given that the random variable X takes the value x,
expresses the probability that Y takes the value y, as a function
of y, when the value x is specified for X. This is denoted and so
by the definition of conditional probability:
) (
) , (
) (
x P
y x P
x y P =
(5)
Similarly, the conditional probability function of X, given
y Y = is:
) (
) , (
) (
y P
y x P
y x P =
(6)
If 2 discrete random variables are independent of each other
then, ) ( ) ( ) , ( y P x P y x P = and of course P(y| x) = P(y).
The fact that for independent random variables the joint PDF is
the product of the marginal PDFs can be extended to several
independent random variables.
Independence of Jointly Distributed Random
Variables
The jointly distributed random variables X and Y are said to be
independent if and only if their joint probability function is the
product of their marginal probability functions, that is, if and
only if
) ( ) ( ) , ( y P x P y x P = for all possible pairs of values x and y.
And k random variables are independent if and only if
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 2 1 2
, ,..., ...
k k
P P P P
x x x x x x
= (7)
Expected Value: Function of Jointly Distributed Random
Variables
Let X and Y be a pair of discrete random variables with joint
probability function ). , ( y x P The expectation of any function
g(X,Y) of these random variables is defined as:
E[g(X,Y)] =

x y
y x P y x g ) , ( ) , (
(8)
Covariance
Covariance
Let X be a random variable with mean
X
, and let Y be a
random variable with mean,
Y
. The expected value of
) )( (
Y X
Y X is called the covariance between X and Y,,
de-noted Cov(X, Y). For discrete random variables

= =
x y
Y x Y X
y x P y x Y X E Y X Cov ) , ( ) )( ( )] )( [( ) , (
(9)
An equivalent expression is:

= =
x y
Y x Y x
y x xyP XY E Y X Cov ) , ( ) ( ) , (
Normal Distribution or Normal Curve:
Normal distribution is probably one of the most important
and widely used continuous distribution. It is known as a
normal random variable, and its probability distribution is
called a normal distribution. The following are the characteristics
of the normal distribution:
Characteristics of the Normal Distribution:
1. It is bell shaped and is symmetrical about its mean.
2. It is asymptotic to the axis, i.e., it extends indefinitely in
either direction from the mean.
3. It is a continuous distribution.
4. It is a family of curves, i.e., every unique pair of mean and
standard deviation defines a different normal distribution.
Thus, the normal distribution is completely described by
two parameters: mean and standard deviation. See the
following figure.
5. Total area under the curve sums to 1, i.e., the area of the
distribution on each side of the mean is 0.5.
6. It is unimodal, i.e., values mound up only in the center of
the curve.
94 11.502
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
7. The probability that a random variable will have a value
between any two points is equal to the area under the curve
between those points.
Figure
Note that the integral calculus is used to find the area under the
normal distribution curve. However, this can be avoided by
transforming all normal distribution to fit the standard normal
distribution. This conversion is done by rescalling the normal
distribution axis from its true units (time, weight, dollars,
and...) to a standard measure called Z score or Z value. A Z
score is the number of standard deviations that a value, X, is
away from the mean. If the value of X is greater than the mean,
the Z score is positive; if the value of X is less than the mean,
the Z score is negative. The Z score or equation is as follows:
Z = (X - Mean) / Standard deviation
A standard Z table can be used to find probabilities for any
normal curve problem that has been converted to Z scores. For
the table, refer to the text. The Z distribution is a normal
distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.
The following steps are helpfull when working with the normal
curve problems:
1. Graph the normal distribution, and shade the area related to
the probability you want to find.
2. Convert the boundaries of the shaded area from X values to
the standard normal random variable Z values using the Z
formula above.
3. Use the standard Z table to find the probabilities or the areas
related to the Z values in step 2.
Example One
Graduate Management Aptitude Test (GMAT) scores are widely
used by graduate schools of business as an entrance require-
ment. Suppose that in one particular year, the mean score for
the GMAT was 476, with a standard deviation of 107. Assum-
ing that the GMAT scores are normally distributed, answer the
following questions:
Question 1
What is the probability that a randomly selected score from this
GMAT falls between 476 and 650? <= x <=650) the
following figure shows a graphic representation of this
problem.
Figure
Applying the Z equation, we get: Z = (650 - 476)/ 107 = 1.62.
The Z value of 1.62 indicates that the GMAT score of 650 is
1.62 standard deviation above the mean. The standard normal
table gives the probability of value falling between 650 and the
mean. The whole number and tenths place portion of the Z
score appear in the first column of the table. Across the top of
the table are the values of the hundredths place portion of the
Z score. Thus the answer is that 0.4474 or 44.74% of the scores
on the GMAT fall between a score of 650 and 476.
Question 2
What is the probability of receiving a score greater than 750 on a
GMAT test that has a mean of 476 and a standard deviation of
107? i.e., P(X >= 750) = ?. This problem is asking for deter-
mining the area of the upper tail of the distribution. The Z
score is: Z = ( 750 - 476)/ 107 = 2.56. From the table, the
probability for this Z score is 0.4948. This is the probability of a
GMAT with a score between 476 and 750. The rule is that when
we want to find the probability in either tail, we must substract
the table value from 0.50. Thus, the answer to this problem is:
0.5 - 0.4948 = 0.0052 or 0.52%. Note that P(X >= 750) is the
same as P(X >750), because, in continuous distribution, the
area under an exact number such as X=750 is zero. The
following figure shows a graphic representation of this
problem.
Figure
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
11.502 95
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
Question 3
What is the probability of receiving a score of 540 or less on a
GMAT test that has a mean of 476 and a standard deviation of
107? i.e., P(X <= 540)=?. we are asked to determine the area
under the curve for all values less than or equal to 540. the z
score is: z=(540" 476)/ 107=0.6. from the table, the
probability for this z score is 0.2257 which is the probability of
getting a score between the mean (476) and 540. the rule is that
when we want to find the probability between two values of x
on either side of the mean, we just add the two areas together.
Thus, the answer to this problem is: 0.5 + 0.2257 = 0.73 or
73%. The following figure shows a graphic representation of
this problem.
Figure
Question 4
What is the probability of receiving a score between 440 and 330
on a GMAT test that has a mean of 476 and a standard
deviation of 107? i.e., P(330
<>
Figure
In this problem, the two values fall on the same side of the
mean. The Z scores are: Z1 = (330 - 476)/ 107 = -1.36, and Z2
= (440 - 476)/ 107 = -0.34. The probability associated with Z =
-1.36 is 0.4131, and the probability associated with Z = -0.34 is
0.1331. The rule is that when we want to find the probability
between two values of X on one side of the mean, we just
subtract the smaller area from the larger area to get the probabil-
ity between the two values. Thus, the answer to this problem is:
0.4131 - 0.1331 = 0.28 or 28%.
Example Two
Suppose that a tire factory wants to set a mileage guarantee on
its new model called LA 50 tire. Life tests indicated that the
mean mileage is 47,900, and standard deviation of the normally
distributed distribution of mileage is 2,050 miles. The factory
wants to set the guaranteed mileage so that no more than 5%
of the tires will have to be replaced. What guaranteed mileage
should the factory announce? i.e., P(X <= ?)=5%.<br> In
this problem, the mean and standard deviation are given, but X
and Z are unknown. The problem is to solve for an X value
that has 5% or 0.05 of the X values less than that value. If 0.05
of the values are less than X, then 0.45 lie between X and the
mean (0.5 - 0.05), see the following graph.
Figure
Refer to the standard normal distribution table and search the
body of the table for 0.45. Since the exact number is not found
in the table, search for the closest number to 0.45. There are two
values equidistant from 0.45 0.4505 and 0.4495. Move to the
left from these values, and read the Z scores in the margin,
which are: 1.65 and 1.64. Take the average of these two Z scores,
i.e., (1.65 + 1.64)/ 2 = 1.645. Plug this number and the values
of the mean and the standard deviation into the Z equation,
you get:
Z =(X - mean)/ standard deviation or -1.645 =(X - 47,900)/
2,050 = 44,528 miles.
Thus, the factory should set the guaranteed mileage at 44,528
miles if the objective is not to replace more than 5% of the
tires.
The Normal Approximation to the Binomial
Distribution
In lecture note number 5 we talked about the binomial
probability distribution, which is a discrete distribution. You
remember that we said as sample sizes get larger, binomial
distribution approach the normal distribution in shape
regardless of the value of p (probability of success). For large
sample values, the binomial distribution is cumbersome to
analyze without a computer. Fortunately, the normal distribu-
tion is a good approximation for binomial distribution
problems for large values of n. The commonly accepted
guidelines for using the normal approximation to the binomial
probability distribution is when (n x p) and [n(1 - p)] are both
greater than 5.
Example
Suppose that the management of a restaurant claimed that 70%
of their customers returned for another meal. In a week in
which 80 new (first-time) customers dined at the restaurant,
96 11.502
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
what is the probability that 60 or more of the customers will
return for another meal?, ie., P(X >= 60) =?.
The solution to this problem can be illustrated as follows:
First, the two guidelines that (n x p) and [n(1 - p)] should be
greater than 5 are satisfied: (n x p) = (80 x 0.70) = 56 > 5, and
[n(1 - p)] = 80(1 - 0.70) = 24 > 5. Second, we need to find the
mean and the standard deviation of the binomial distribution.
The mean is equal to (n x p) = (80 x 0.70) = 56 and standard
deviation is square root of [(n x p)(1 - p)], i.e., square root of
16.8, which is equal to 4.0988. Using the Z equation we get, Z =
(X - mean)/ standard deviation = (59.5 - 56)/ 4.0988 = 0.85.
From the table, the probability for this Z score is 0.3023 which
is the probability between the mean (56) and 60. We must
substract this table value 0.3023 from 0.5 in order to get the
answer, i.e., P(X >= 60) = 0.5 -0.3023 = 0.1977. Therefore, the
probability is 19.77% that 60 or more of the 80 first-time
customers will return to the restaurant for another meal. See the
following graph.
Figure
Correction Factor
The value 0.5 is added or subtracted, depending on the
problem, to the value of X when a binomial probability
distribution is being approximated by a normal distribution.
This correction ensures that most of the binomial problems
information is correctly transferred to the normal curve analysis.
This correction is called the correction for continuity. The
decision as to how to correct for continuity depends on the
equality sign and the direction of the desired outcomes of the
binomial distribution. The following table shows some rules
of thumb that can help in the application of the correction for
continuity, see the above example.
Value Being Determined............................Correction
X >.....................................................................+0.50
X > =...................................................................-0.50
X <.......................................................................-0.50
X <=..................................................................+0.50
<= X <=..........................................-0.50" & +0.50
X =.......................................................-0.50 & +0.50
1
Normal Probability Distributions
Johnson & Kuby, Chapter 6
x a
b

P a x b ( )
Points to Ponder
2
Chapter Goals
o Learn about continuous random
variables, and their distributions
o Learn about the Normal, bell-shaped,
or Gaussian distribution
o How probabilities are found
o How probabilities are represented
o How normal distributions are used in
the real world
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
11.502 97
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
3
o Description involves two functions:
n The probability density function (p.d.f)
A function to determine the ordinates of the
graph picturing the distribution
n The distribution function (the d.f.)
A function to determine probabilities
n The d.f . is the definite integral of the p.d.f.
Continuous Distributions
4
Continuous Distributions
Probability Density Function (p.d.f)
n Defined over a portion of the real
numbers (e.g., X = 0, a = X = b)
n Always specified as a function
o f(x) = 1, a = x = b (Uniform Dist.)
o f(x) = ?e
-?x
, x = 0 (Exponential Dist.)
n We compute probabilities as areas under
the curve defined by the p.d.f
5
Continuous Distributions
Distribution Function (d.f.)
n Computed as the definite integral of the p.d.f.:
n P{a=X=b} = F(b) F(a)
n P{X = x} = F(x) F(x) = 0
n P{X < x} = P{X = x} P{X = x}
= P{X = x} 0 = F(x)
n P{X > x} = 1 P{X = x} = 1 F(x)
n P{X = x} = P{X > x} + P{X = x}
= P{X > x} + 0 = 1 F(x)

= =
x
dy y f x X P x F ) ( } { ) (
6
Continuous Distribution Examples
o Exponential Distribution
n Notation: X ~ Exponential(?)
n Density function (p.d.f): f(x) = ?e
-?x
, x = 0, ? > 0
n Distribution function (d.f.) F(x) = 1 - e
-?x
, x = 0
n Mean: 1 / ?
n Variance: 1/ ?
2
o UniformDistribution
n Notation: X ~ Uniform( a, b)
n Density function (p.d.f): f(x) = 1, a = x = b
n Dist. function (d.f.): F(x) = (x-a)/(b-a), a = x = b
n Mean: (a + b) / 2
n Variance: (b a)
2
/ 12
98 11.502
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
7
The Normal Distribution
Section 6.1
o The normal probability
distribution is the most important
distribution in all of statistics
o Many continuous random variables
have normal or approximately normal
distributions
o Need to learn how to describe a
normal probability distribution
9
+ + 2 +3 2 3

The Normal Density Function

f(x)
8
The Normal Distribution
Normal probability density function:
This is the function for the normal (bell-
shaped) curve
Notation: X ~ Normal(, s
2
)
Mean:
Variance: s
2
f x e
x
( )
( )
=

1
2
2
2
2

10
The Normal Distribution
The Normal Distribution Function (d.f.):
The probability that x lies in some interval
(i.e., a = x = b) is the area under the curve:
) ( ) (
2
1
) ( } {
2
2
2
) (
a F b F e x f b X a P
b
a
b
a
x
= = =

= =
x
dy y f x X P x F ) ( } { ) (
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
11.502 99
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
11
P a x b f x dx
a
b
( ) ( ) =

a b x
The Normal Distribution
12
oEvaluating definite integrals is a calculus topic, which we
will not address
n There is no closed-form representation for the Normal d.f.
n We must use a table to find probabilities for normal
distributions
oWe will focus on computing probabilities for one special
normal distribution: the standard normal distribution
n All normal probability questions can be transformed into
questions in terms of the standard normal
oThe Empirical Rule provides guidance (68/95/99.7)
n We need to refine the empirical rule to be able to find the
percentage that lies between any two numbers
The Normal Distribution
13
Basically the same concepts
n Percentage(30%) is usually used when talking about
a proportion (3/10) of a population
n Probability is usually used when talking about the
chance that the next individual item will possess a
certain property
n Area is the graphic representation of all three when we
draw a picture to illustrate the situation
Percentage, Proportion,
and Probability
14
The Standard Normal
Section 6.2
oThere are infinitely many normal
probability distributions
oThey are all related to the standard
normal distribution
oThe standard normal distribution is
the distribution of the standardized
variable Z (the z-score)
100 11.502
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
15
o The total area under any normal curve is equal to 1.
o The distribution is mounded and symmetric; it
extends indefinitely in both directions, approaching
but never touching the horizontal axis.
o The distribution has a mean of 0 and a standard
deviation of 1.
o The mean divides the area in half, 0.50 on each side.
o Nearly all the area is between z = 3.00 and z =
3.00.
Properties of the Standard Normal
16
Using the Standard Normal Table
Table 3, Appendix B lists the probabilities
associated with the intervals from the
mean ( = 0) to a specific value of z.
Probabilities of other intervals are found
using the table entries, addition,
subtraction, and properties of the
distribution
17
The table contains the area under the standard normal
curve between 0 and a specific value of z:
(z) = P{ 0 = Z = z }
0 z
Using the Standard Normal Table
18
Find the area under the standard normal curve between
z = 0 and z = 1.45.
P{0=Z=1.45}= F(1.45) F(0)
= (1.45)
= 0.4265
From Table 3 (p. 504):
z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06
1.4 0.4265
1 45 .

An Example
0 1.45 z
(1.45)
Area Desired
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
11.502 101
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
19
Find the area under the normal curve to the right of
z = 1.45; P{Z > 1.45}
P{Z > 1.45} = 1 F(1.45) = 1.0000 (0.5000 + (1.45))
= 0.5000 - (1.45)
= 0.5000 0.4265
= 0.0735
An Example
0 1. 45 z
Area Desired
0.4265
21
o The addition and subtraction used in the previous
examples are correct because the areas
represent mutually exclusive events
o The symmetry of the normal distribution is a key
factor in determining probabilities associated with
values below (to the left of) the mean. For
example: the area between the mean and Z =
1.37 is the same as the area between the mean
and Z = +1.37
o When finding probabilities, a sketch is always
helpful, but especially so when working with (z)
values
Some Observations
20
Find the area to the left of z = 1.45; P{Z < 1.45}
P{Z < 1.45} = F (1.45)
= 0.5000 + (1.45)
= 0.5000 + 0.4265
= 0.9265
An Example
0 1. 45 z
Area Desired
0.4265 0.5000
22
Find the area between the mean (z = 0) and z = 1.26.
P{-1.26 = Z = 0} = F(0) F(-1.26)
= 0.5000 (0.5000 - (-1.26))
= (-1.26)
= (1.26)
= 0.3962
Area desired
Area from table:
0.3962
An Example
-1.26 0 1. 26 z
102 11.502
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
Example: Find the area to the left of .98; P(z < .98).
0 .98 .98
Area asked for Area from table
0.3365
P z ( . ) . . . < = = 98 05000 0 3365 01635
Example: Find the area between z = 1.4 and z = .5.
0 14 . .5 .5 14 .
Area asked for
P z P z P z ( . . ) ( . ) ( . )
. . .
< < = < < < <
= =
14 5 0 1 4 0 5
0 4192 0 1915 0 2277
Example: Find the area between z = 2.3 and z = 1.8.
0 18 . 2 3 .
0 4641 . 0 4893 .
P z P z P z ( . . ) ( . ) ( . )
. . .
< < = < < + < <
= + =
2 3 18 2 3 0 0 18
0 4893 0 4641 0 9534
Note: The normal distribution table may also be used to
determine a z-score if we are given the area ( to work
backwards).
Example: What is the z-score associated with the 85th
percentile?
P
85
0 z
15% 0 3500 .
implies
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
11.502 103
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
Solution:
In Table 3 Appendix B, find the area entry that is
closest to 0.3500.
The area entry closest to 0.3500 is 0.3508.
The z-score that corresponds to this area is 1.04.
The 85th percentile in a normal distribution is 1.04.
z
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05
1.0 0.3485 0.3500 0.3508

Example: What z-scores bound the middle 90% of a

normal distribution?
0 0 z z
90% 0 4500 .
implies
Solution:
The 90% is split into two equal parts by the mean.
Find the area in Table 3 closest to 0.4500.
0.4500 is exactly half way between 0.4495 and 0.4505.
Therefore, z = 1.645
z = 1.645 and z = 1.645 bound the middle 90% of a
normal distribution.
z
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05
1.6 0.4495 0.4500 0.4505

30
Applications of Normal Distributions
Section 6.3
o Apply the techniques learned for the Z
distribution to all normal distributions
o Start with a probability question in
terms of x-values
o Convert, or transform, the question into
an equivalent probability statement
involving z-values
104 11.502
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
Standardization:
Suppose x is a normal random variable with mean
and standard deviation .
The random variable
has a standard normal distribution.
z
x
=

c x
0
c

z
P x P
x
P z
( . )
. .
.
.
( . ) .
32 32 025
32 32
02
32
02
32 025 32
02
0 125 0 3944
< < =

<

<

= < < =
32 32 025 . x
0 125 . z
Area asked for
Illustration:
Example : A bottling machine is adjusted to fill bottles
with a mean of 32.0 oz of soda and standard deviation
of 0.02. Assume the amount of fill is normally
distributed and a bottle is selected at random.
1. Find the probability the bottle contains between 32
oz and 32.025 oz.
2. Find the probability the bottle contains more than
31.97 oz.
When x z = =

=

= 32 025
32 32 025 32
02
125 . ;
.
.
.

When x z = =

=

= 32
32 32 32
02
0 ;
.

P x P
x
P z ( . )
.
.
.
( . )
. . .
> =

>

= >
= + =
3197
32
02
3 197 32
02
15
0 5000 0 4332 0 9332
32 3197 . x
0 15 . z
Illustration:
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
11.502 105
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
Note:
1. The normal table may be used to answer many kinds
of questions involving a normal distribution.
2. Often we need to find a cutoff point: a value of x
such that there is a certain probability in a specified
interval defined by x.
Example: The waiting time x at a certain bank is
approximately normally distributed with a mean of 3.7
minutes and a standard deviation of 1.4 minutes. The
bank would like to claim that 95% of all customers are
waited on by a teller within c minutes. Find the value of
c that makes this statement true.
Example: A radar unit is used to measure the speed of
automobiles on an expressway during rush-hour traffic.
The speeds of individual automobiles are normally
distributed with a mean of 62 mph. Find the standard
deviation of all speeds if 3% of the automobiles travel
faster than 72 mph.
Illustration:
62 72 x
0 188 . z
0 4700 .
0 0300 .
Solution:
P x c
P
x c
P z
c
( ) .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
=

=
95
3 7
1 4
3 7
14
95
3 7
14
95
c
c
c

=
= + =

37
1 4
1 645
1645 14 3 7 6 003
6
.
.
.
( . )( . ) . .
minutes
3 7 . c x
0 1 645 . z
0 5000 . 04500 .
0 0500 .
Solution:
P x
P
x
P z P z
( ) .
.
. ( . ) .
.
( . )( )
/ . .
> =

>

=
>

= > =

=
=
= =
72 0 03
62 72 62
0 03
72 62
0 03 188 0 03
72 62
188
188 10
10 188 53 2

106 11.502
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
Notation:
If x is a normal random variable with mean and
standard deviation , this is often denoted: x ~ N(, ).
Example: Suppose x is a normal random variable with
= 35 and = 6. A convenient notation to identify this
random variable is: x ~ N(35, 6).
40
Notation
Section 6.4
o z-score used throughout statistics in a
variety of ways
o Need convenient notation to indicate the
area under the standard normal
distribution
o z() is the token, or symbolic name, for
the z-score (point on the z axis) such
that there is of the area (probability)
to the right of z( )
Il l ustrati ons:
0 z( . ) 0 10 z
0 10 .
0 z( . ) 0 8 0 z
0 8 0 .
z(0.10) represents the
value of z such that the
area to the right under
the standard normal
curve is 0.10
z(0.80) represents the
value of z such that the
area to the right under
the standard normal
curve is 0.80
Example: Find the numerical value of z(0.10).
Use Table 3: look for an area as close as possible to
0.4000
z(0.10) = 1.28
0 z ( . ) 0 10 z
0.10 (area information
from notation)
Table shows this area (0.4000)
Copy Right : Ra i Unive rsit y
11.502 107
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
A
T
I
V
E

M
E
T
H
O
D
S
Example: Find the numerical value of z(0.80).
Use Table 3: look for an area as close as possible to
0.3000.
z(0.80) = .84
0 z( . ) 080 z
Look for 0.3000; remember
that z must be negative.
Note:
The values of z that will be used regularly come from
one of the following situations:
1.The z-score such that there is a specified area in one
tail of the normal distribution.
2.The z-scores that bound a specified middle
proportion of the normal distribution.
Example : Find the numerical value of z(0.99).
Because of the symmetrical nature of the normal
distribution, z(0.99) = z(0.01).
Using Table 3: z(0.99) = 2.33
0 z ( . ) 099 z
0.01

Example : Find the z-scores that bound the middle 0.99
of the normal distribution.
Use Table 3:
0 z( . ) 0 005 z( . ) 0 995
or
z( . ) 0 005
0 495 . 0 495 .
0005 . 0 005 .
z z z ( . ) . ( . ) ( . ) . 0 005 2 575 0 995 0 005 2 575 = = = and