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 2012 12

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,1945 ,
,( hegemonic war)

1945 ,
,,
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,
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,

, 1945 ,

,
,
,
,

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, ,2011 6 , 6-32

27

,
( first-mover advantage) ,,

,,
,

, ,
16 28
,,

,,
,
,
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:,
,? :,
?

,,

, ,

( )

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,,
,
, ,
,
,

,,
,
,
,,
, ,
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,
,,
,
, ,,,
, ,,

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,1945
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,,

,
,
,
,
1945
,
,,

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30

 2012 12

:
,
,
,
? ( Timothy W. Crawford)

,,
,
( wedge strategies)
:,,
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,(
)
,
,
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, ,

,,
,
,
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31

,
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,
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,,
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,,,

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204.

M. ,: ,: 2001 , 258 -260 ;K. ,

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: , ,2011 6 , 19 -

32

 2012 12

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2013 911 , http: / / news. xinhuanet. com / world / 2012 - 02 / 14 / c _

122699716. htm

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rent defense) ,

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,,

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,

,: ,

,, Thomas C. Schell

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 2012 12

2.

, ( R,) ( C)
( NC) ,( S) ( B) ( NB)

r XY , s XY
1 , r CB > r CNB ,r CB > r NCNB ;, s NCNB >

s CNB ,s NCNB >s CB , s CB >s CNB ,

( C,B) ,,

1
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lence) , s CB ,
, s CB s CNB ,

,
?
,,
,, s CB

,,

, ,,

: , ,2011 6 , 16 -

17 James W. Davis, Jr. , Threats and Promises: The Pursuit of International Influence, Baltimore
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35

,( inelastic demand)

, ,,

,,

,
( ) ,
,

,,,

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= /

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,,

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,,

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,, ,
,,
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( NC) ,,
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,( B NC)
, ,
, 2

v r ,
v s c r
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2
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,,

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 2012 12

,(

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,
,,,
,

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,(,)

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,,:

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,,,
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= 0, n = r r / c r n>r r / c r ,f R( n) <0 f S( n)= 0, n = r s / c s n>r s / c s ,f S ( n) <0 ,

r r / c r >r s / c s , 0

39

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:(1)
;(2) ;(3)

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,
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,
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:
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,,

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,,: , 24
: , 14-15

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 2012 12

,994 , ,
,, 996

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47

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 2012 12

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 2012 12

( )

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