Br Roo Nonnr-a.Nnand,DamBr, Gnoss uation.

China, India, Vietnam and Thai-

land have efiirtively banned rice e4ports.
N THE AFTERNOONS, RINGO PURGANAN, A 2O-YEAR-OLD WHO rS The moves, intended to build up domes-
tic stockpiles, have furdrer pushed world
trainingtobe acook,pedalshis bicyclehomethroughthedenselypop, prices up. The result higher prices (bas-
ulated barrio of Krus na Ligas in Ouezon City, outside Manila. His mati rice from India in the past year has
risen ftom $850 per ton to $2,000) and
mother usually leavessomebreadand fruit juice for him to snackon
hoarding. Chains like Costco and Sam's
beforehe returnsto work. Club are limiting the number of 2O-pound
But today,the kitchen is empty savea plastic container half-filled with bags of imported rice varieties that cus-
tomers canbuy.
ricegrains.His dailyearningsof about$4.70,andthewagesfrom his motherk
Plenty of people can get through the
job washi4g dishesat a university canteen, desperately hungry have turned to mud day without gasoline; nobody can get
cant buy enough food for his six-person pies (concoctions of cooking oil, bits of through the day without food. The sharp,
family. With the price of rice having vegetableand dirt), riots over food toppled sudden rise in the cost of food could wind
nearly tripled in recent months, the Pur- the government of PresidentRen6Prevat. up wiping out a great deal of the recent
ganans usually skip breakfast. "It can be The reasonsbehind the price spiral are progress made in combating poverly.
hard to accept things as they are, but we atonce complicated and simple. Although When you live on g2 a day, and already
survive,"he says. grain harvests in 2AA7were the largest in spend a large chunk of your income on
From the crowded warrens of Krus na
Ligas to the aisles of the WaI-Mart in Las
Cruces,N.M., the price of food has be-
come an unavoidable topic of conversa-
tion. In January the bull run of agricul-
tural commodities was an afterthought
Nowlt'sthe$6
Loafof Bread
at the World Economic Forum in Davos,
wherethe subprimecrisis,sovereign-wealth
funds andthe seeminglyinexorable rise of
petroleum dominated the agenda.But in a
few short months, food has replacedoil as
tle Next Big Threat to the long-running
A
gtobal
expansion wheatns^ prices soar, food has replaced oil as the big threat
rnthepastyear,
;3$f"t$;'-kii,;:ft$fiil"#'#: to thelong-running
globaleconomic
expansion.
more than doubledsincelastAugust.
In the recentglobal boom-fiveyears of
the world's history unfavorable weather food, a 5Opercent increasein the price of
qmchronous growth that lifted hundredshas causedcrop failures in Ukaine, a big corn can be catastrophic. "In 2003, we
of millions out of poverL], forged newgrain producer, and wiped out Australia's were talking about endingworld hunger-
trading links and brought the hope of a
oncevast rice prodrrction. The rising price and it looked like a sensible targetj' says
of energy,which has jacked up the costs
better life to the developing world-the Ben Senauer, a University of Minnesota
availability of plentifirl, cheap food was
of farming (a great deal of fertilizer is economist who studies food issues.But in
generallytaken for granted. But now much
made from petroleum), is also a factor. .February Sheeran announced that the
of the recent progress is being threatened
And so, too, is speculation, as momentum World Food Program, which feeds some
by expensivefood, whose advent has been
inveetors have piled into the commodity 8O million people, would need an emer-
a long time commg. As with oil, the rising
markets. But at root, the rising prices have gency allocation ofhalfa billion dollars
prices are fueled in part by speculators.
been fireled mostly by a long-term, steady just to coverthe increasedcostoffood aid
And like oil, expensive staples are swiftly
increasein demand.Tb put it simply, in re- it had alreadybudgeted.Today'sestimated
upsetting business plans, sparking inlla-
cent years people in developing countries, shorfall: $750 million, with only about
tion, causing political instability and in-
particularly India and China, have been half of that pledged (including $2oo mil-
fl icting widespreadeconomicpain. eating more-and eating better-than ever lion from the United States, the world's
The United Nations'World Food Pro-
before. In China, the boom has led to vast- largest food-aid donor).
gram saysthat hunger has reacheda crisis
ly greater consumption of meat and dairy It may seem insensitive to discuss the
level in all the 12l poorest countries it has
products. Grains arethe biggestsingle cost impact of high food prices in a wealthy
recently surveyed. High food prices are
in raisingpigs and cows, economyin which obesity is rampant, But
"creating a silent tsunami threatening to" Poliryplaysa role,too. Theglobaltrade higher grain prices are haing a serious
plunge more than l0O million people onin agricultural commodities is riven with economic impact in the United States.As
every continent into hunger," said WFPineficiencies createdbysubsidies and tar- the U.S. economy slips into recession,the
executivedirectorJosette Sheeranin Lon-
itrs. The high price ofoil has spurred gov- CongressionalBudget Ofiice projects that
don. The tsunami is no longer so silent.
ernments to €ncouragethe production of a record28 millionAmericans will require
Food-related protests have erupted in bioftels-ethanol from corn in the United food stamps this year. And since this
Cameroonand Egypt. In Haiti, where theStates,sugar cane in Brazil, Iastyear, one year's allocations are basedon prices as of
fifth of the U.S. corn crop was diverted last June, federal aid won't go as far. Ac-
Click ourph0t0gallery
through 0ngl0bal to ethanol refineries, The policy response cording to the Bureau ofLabor Statistics,
foodshortages
atxtrq.Newsw€ek.com to risingfoodprices has agravated the sit- the prices for staple groceries have risen

46 NEWSWEEK I MAY5,2OO8
LllELlNEzMuchof Southeast' siawillbefacing riceshortagesin comingrnonths;grainfrornthh warehowein Manila camefromWetrearn
sharply in the pastyear:white bread(16.3
percent), milk (13.3percent), eggs (29.0
percent). Americans dont starve, says
StacyDean, director offood assistanceat
the Washington, D.C.-basedCenter on
Budget and Policy Priorities, "butwe have
a very significant chunk ofthe population
that isnt able to eat a bare-bones,basic
healthy diet." Food pantries across the
country are feeling the sting ofrising food
and gas prices. Barb Prather, director of
the Northeast Iowa Food Bank. estimates
that her group's food bills have increased
30 to {Q pelsgnt in the pastyear-at a time
of risingdemand.
A recent USA Today/Gallup poll found
that 46 percent of Americans said high-
er grocery bills had created a personal
hardship. The advent of expensive food
is creating a kind of widespread sticker
shock, and not just at Whole Foods.Just
as a barrel of Texas crude has breached
the until recently unthinkable $100 mark,
New York City bagels have pierced the
until recently untlinkable gl barrier. The
fact that inflation is so concentrated in
nondiscretionary items, like energy and
food, is sapping demand for discretionary
items-like clothes and electronics.
GoingHigherandHigher summit Diouf is hosting in RomeinJune.
There's likely to be little relief soon,
Soaringcosts
ofxapkfoods
swha: da hauebrt
manyoftheworld!poorex
hungry
- andangry. however.The factors that could aggravate
or improve the situation in the short term
F00DcolilroDrw PR|GE |l{DtcEs (which include the weather, and growth in
350points. 1-q*S-t***.J*f rai*ig.' China) are beyond poliq.irnakers' control.
Crops dont grow overnight, and invest-
ments neededto make farming more effi-
cient and produetive in the developing
worldwill takeyears.
The markets that set prices have been
known to fall, aswell asriie. Wheat prices,
which have leveled offrecently, could fall
if a bumper harvest materializes this
year, a developmentthat would help bring
100
March200? March2008 rice prices down, too. But until that hap-
{HE NDEXISArcIMff&ETilTISNEDONfr E{ITMCECOgOFTE pens, and until the dynamics of supply
collltoDmlml.EEN
@BTRYT&oED.
1998&\D 2000 \!GICHfrD
RCES,S
By TSE S|ON
|SEXEDiSt\'Sm6&anEE&
SCE
SmB rio and demand change, there's a sensethat
urgent actions will be required to feed
Globai leaders are waking up to the the truly hungry, while the rest of us will
threat. "Finally, eve4'one is paying at- have to tighten our belts. As Abdolreza
tention," Jacques Diouf; the Senegalese Abbassian,an analyst at.the Food and
director-general of the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization, puts it: "The era
Agriculture Organization, told Nnws- ofcheap food is over,"
wEEK last week after leaving 10 Downing
Street, where he had met with British With ASHLEYHannrs azd
BARRETTSHEp.wN in NawYorh-
Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Brown MIYoKo OHTAKEin SanFrancisco,
and French President Nicolas Sarkozy KARENMAcGnEGoR in Darb an, South
have pledged to attend a food-security 'lfrica,
and CtISELDA YABEsin Manila
MAY5,2oo8 I NEWSWEEK 47