Pakistan Weekly Update

StockSmart

AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

Weekly Review

Index & Volume Chart

107.50

BOP

91.16

LOTCHEM

88.84

NIB

76.58

(Index)
30,000

700
(mn)
600

28,500

500
400

27,932
27,566
27,160

27,000

ReadyVolume(LHS)

25,500

Source: KSE & AKD Research

KSE100Index(RHS)

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

AGTL

15.0%

ABL

SMBL

28,600
28,400
28,200
28,000
27,800
27,600
27,400
27,200
27,000
26,800
26,600
26,400

AKBL

174.43

(Index)
28,336 28,408

PSO

500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000

4Apr

LPCL

Universe Gainers & Losers

(Shrs'000)

3Apr

Volum e (m n)

2Apr

Sym bol

1Apr

Top-5 Volum e Leaders

FATIMA

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)

This week
291.80
Last week
154.00
Change
89.48%

ICI

US$bn
69.70
67.05
3.96%

31Mar

PkRbn
6,840.77
6,573.10
4.07%

SHEL

Indices
KMI-30
Allshare
This week 46,569.72 21,223.18
Last week 44,488.95 20,379.22
Change
4.68%
4.14%

HCAR

Indices
KSE-100
KSE-30
This week 28,408.03 20,030.28
Last week 27,116.13 19,200.54
Change
4.76%
4.32%

The KSE-100 index gained 4.76%WoW to close at its all-time high level of 28,408 points. The
key reasons behind the markets rebound was foreign buying interest on the back of the upcoming re-composition of MSCI FM 100 Index where Pakistan's weight is more than likely to
go up to 8.9% with inclusion of 3 more stocks (PSO, LUCK and BAHL), taking total stocks
from Pakistan to twelve. In this regard FIPI clocked in at US$35.8mn for the week, up nearly
42.0xWoW and average traded volumes increased by 89%WoW to 291mn shares while average traded value rose by 30%WoW to US$139mn. Major news flow during the week included
1) Continuation of peace talks with TTP; 2) LUCKs grinding facility in Iraq has reportedly commenced production and 3) SAS a fully held subsidiary of Lafarge SA is evaluating a potential
divestment of its shares in LPCL. On the economic front included 1) Mar14 CPI was recorded
at 8.53%YoY leading to 9MFY14 CPI average of 8.6%YoY, 2) latest T-bill auction where an
amount of PkR26bn was raised vs. the pre-auction target of PkR125bn (we believe subdued
interest in T-bills is due to ongoing shift from shorter to longer maturities), and 3) With materialization of foreign flows, fx reserves reportedly crossed US$10bn watermark on Mar 3114.
Major Gainers during the week included INDU (+12.8%WoW), LUCK (+12.5%WoW), HCAR
(+11.7%WoW) and SHEL (+10.8%WoW) while major losers included AGTL (-3.5%WoW),
AKBL (-1.4%WoW), ABL (-1.1%WoW) and PSO (-0.9%WoW). Top five volume leaders during the week included LPCL (174mn shares), SMBL (107.5mn shares), BOP (91mn shares),
LOTCHEM (88mn shares) and NIB (76mn shares).

LUCK

research@akdsecurities.net
009221 111 253 111

INDU

AKD Research

Mkt Cap.
This week
Last week
Change

4 April 2014

24,000

300

22,500

200

21,000

18,000

Vo lume (LHS)

Apr-14

0
Apr-13

19,500
May-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14

100

KSE-100 Index

Outlook
With KSE-100 Index gaining 1,292 points in the outgoing week, we believe investors should
wait for the market to take a dip before taking fresh positions. Saying that, we feel market
movement in the coming week will primarily be dictated by foreign flows. Spotlight is also likely
to be on the dialogue between the govt and Taliban. In our view, attention should be given to
stocks which are yet to ride the ongoing rally, these include NBP, BAFL, NML and OGDC.

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies

Important disclosures covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

AKD SECURITIES
Member: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg

(AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com
and Reuters Knowledge

Copyright2014 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended
for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be
contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within
such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation
or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD
Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

4 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

Apr 04, 2014

Banks:Thelongandshortofit,(AKDDaily,Apr04,2014)

28,481
28,456
28,431
28,406
28,381
28,356
28,331
28,306
16:27

15:42

14:58

14:14

13:31

12:48

12:05

11:21

9:53

10:37

9:08

28,281

Apr 03, 2014

28,390
28,351
28,312
28,273
28,234
28,195
28,156
28,117
28,078
28,039
28,000
27,961
27,922

TheBankingsector(+13%CYTD)hasbeeninthelimelightoverthelastfewweeks,with
ini al rally in larger banks now being tracked by smaller names where the combined
marketcapofbankswithlessthanPkR100bnindepositsroseby11%yesterday.Other
thananycasespecificM&Aspecula on,wea ributethiscatchuprallytogeneralre
ra ng in Banks on the back of ongoing macro improvement with the recent shi to
higheryielding PIBs (at the expense of Tbills) ac ng as the trigger. Within this back
drop,thereareseveralbanksthathaveyettoperformatparwiththeirpeersandalso
appear a rac ve on valua on mul ples (P/B, Mkt Cap/Deposits). These include BAFL
(TP:PkR32/share),NBP(TP:PkR60/share),FABL,BOKandJSBL,whichwebelievecan
poten allyoutperforminthenearterm.Fromabroadervantage,providedthebanking
sector gradually rerates to 200307 levels (when GDP growth averaged 5%+pa), the
bankingsectorcanpoten allydeliverreturnsof18%paacross20142017,whichmakes
evenUBLandHBLappearasprofitablemediumtermbets.

15:27

14:35

13:43

12:52

12:00

11:08

9:25

10:17

PakistanMarket:ClearwinnerinthenewMSCIFM100!,(AKDDaily,Apr03,2014)

Apr 02, 2014

14:35
14:42

15:14

13:57
13:56

13:18

12:40

12:01

11:22

10:44

9:25

10:05

27,941
27,906
27,871
27,836
27,801
27,766
27,731
27,696
27,661
27,626
27,591
27,556

Apr 01, 2014

15:28

13:11

12:26

11:41

10:56

9:26

10:11

27,584
27,553
27,522
27,491
27,460
27,429
27,398
27,367
27,336
27,305
27,274
27,243
27,212
27,181
27,150

27,243
27,205
27,167
27,129
27,091

15:22

14:30

13:39

12:48

11:57

11:06

27,053
9:24

ABL:TPRevision,(AKDDaily,Apr02,2014)
WerevisitourearningscaseforABLpostCY13resultsandraiseourearningses mates
by5%onaverageacrosstheinvestmenthorizon.Togetherwithslightlyhigherpayout
projec ons,thisraisesourrevisedtargetpriceforABLtoPkR100/share.Whilethereis
limited upside on oer at current levels, we would take any dip in share price as an
opportunitytobuildposi onsinthisqualitynamewhereourposi veoutlookisprem
iseduponaforecasteddoubledigitNPATCAGRalongsideastrongbalancesheet(95%
provisioning coverage, CAR: 17%+). A sizeable capital gains backlog of more than
PkR9.9bn(18%ofTierIequity)onlistedequityinstrumentsalsopointstowardspoten
al +ve earnings surprises going forward. Having gained 17.3%CYTD, ABL trades at a
CY14F P/B of 1.5x and P/E of 9.1x where our revised target price implies a Neutral
stance.
PakistanMarket:NormalServiceResumes,(AKDDaily,Apr01,2014)

Mar 31, 2014

10:15

AsperaMSCIpressrelease,theproposalsforthenewcalcula onmethodologyforthe
MSCIFM100Indexhavebeenapproved,includingapplyingacapof40%tothecumu
la veweightsofthetwolargestcountriesinthebasket(Kuwait+Nigeria)andapplying
ahigherfreefloatadjustedmarketcaprequirementtoIndexcons tuents(US$240mn).
As a result, we understand that Pakistans weight in the FM basket may increase to
about8.9%fromcloseto4.3%atpresent.Atthesame me,theMSCIsimula onindi
cates that 12 Pakistani companies may be represented in the FM basket, with LUCK,
PSOandBAHLappearingtobenewentrants.WithPakistansettoemergeasthe3rd
largest FM market (broadly at par with Argen na) amidst an ongoing macro turna
round,weexpectPakistantoincreasinglyregisteronforeigninvestorsradars,vindicat
edbythecumula venetFPIinflowofUS$21.3mninthelast3tradingsessions.Atcur
rentlevels,nameswelikeincludeBAFL,NBP,NML,DGKCandOGDC.

The previous month was an even ul one where the KSE100 Index rode the wave of
improvingmacros,underpinnedbyrapidPkRapprecia on,togain5.3%a eradisap
poin ngdeclineof3.7%inFeb'14.ThisbringsCYTDgainsto7.5%,allthemoreimpres
sive considering the month under review saw net ou low of US$5.2mn from foreign
investorsforthefirst mesinceSep'13.Thisnetsellmayhavebeenpromptedbythe
6.5%MoMcurrencygainswhichtookUS$basedreturnsfortheKSE100Indexto11.9%
inMar'14.Otherthancurrencyapprecia on,ledbyreceiptofaUS$750mngrantfrom
SaudiArabiaamidstaposi veoutlookforfurtherinflows,keydriversincludedacease
fire with militants and the resultant improvement in general law & order condi ons.

Source:KSE&AKDResearch

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

4 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

TheKSE100nowtradesataforwardP/Eof8.3xwherefurtherrera ngisapossibility
providedmacroscon nuetoimproveandlaw&orderremainsstable.Atcurrentlev
els,welikeBAFL,NBP,NML,DGKCandOGDC.
PakistanEconomy:RemainsonTrack,(AKDDaily,March31,2014)
TherecentlyreleasedIMFReviewandtheSBPsStateoftheEconomyReportbothap
pear cau ously op mis c regarding the recent up ck in Pakistans macros and pro
spectsforimprovementgoingforward.Inthisregard,factorssuchasGDPgrowth,in
fla on and the external posi on have posted posi ve surprises which appear to be
feedingintoimprovedbusinesssen ment.Thela erhasbeenpinpointedasoneofthe
reasonsleadingtotherecentshi infavorofPIBs(PkR500bnraisedinlastauc onvs.
target of PkR60bn) alongside expecta ons that interest rates have peaked for now.
DespitetheIMFreportedlystressingtheneedtomaintaina ghtmonetarypolicy,we
reiteratethatcentralbankwillhaveroomtocutinterestratesintheMay14MPSpar
cularlyiftheFXreservesposi onkeepsstrengthening.Thatsaid,webelievethere
cent runup in banks share prices has largely captured the posi ves although value
mays llbefoundinnamessuchasBAFL,NBPandFABL.

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

4 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Regional Valuations (2014)

Major World Indices Performance

EPSGrowth
Pakistan
25%
Indonesia
13%
Malaysia
18%
Philippines
10%
Vitenam
15%
India
16%
China
15%

PE(x)
8.69
11.75
13.00
14.98
15.79
12.26
6.95

Country

BloombergCode

%
Pakistan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Vitenam
India
China

DivdYld
5.56
2.26
3.37
2.38
n.a
1.99
4.06

Pakistan
Srilanka
Thailand
Jakarta
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
HongKong
Singapore
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S&P
DJIA
NASDAQComposite
UK
German
Qatar
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Kuwait
Oman
SaudiArabia
MSCIEM
MSCIFM

KSE100Index
CSEALLIndex
SETIndex
JCIIndex
FBMKLCIIndex
PCOMPIndex
VNINDEXIndex
HSIIndex
FSSTIIndex
IBXIndex
RTSSTDIndex
SENSEXIndex
SHCOMPIndex
SPXIndex
INDUIndex
CCMPIndex
UKXIndex
DAXIndex
DSMIndex
ADSMIIndex
DFMGIIndex
KWSEIDXIndex
MSM30Index
SASEIDXIndex
MXEFIndex
MXFMIndex

ROE
21.50
18.59
13.47
14.87
17.77
16.47
14.30

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

4Apr14

28Mar14

28,408
6,055
1,392
4,858
1,857
6,561
593
22,510
3,213
21,254
9,317
22,360
2,059
1,889
16,573
4,238
6,680
9,671
11,984
4,923
4,618
7,572
6,776
9,558
1,000
640

27,116
5,972
1,369
4,768
1,851
6,360
594
22,066
3,172
20,603
9,085
22,340
2,042
1,858
16,323
4,156
6,616
9,587
11,482
4,855
4,381
7,585
6,922
9,423
985
626

WoW

CYTD

4.76%
12.46%
1.38%
2.40%
1.69%
7.18%
1.88%
13.66%
0.32%
0.55%
3.17%
11.40%
0.21%
17.52%
2.01%
3.42%
1.28%
1.43%
3.16%
0.19%
2.55%
8.45%
0.09%
5.62%
0.84%
2.70%
1.68%
2.19%
1.53%
0.02%
1.97%
1.46%
0.97%
1.03%
0.88%
1.25%
4.37%
15.46%
1.41%
14.76%
5.42%
37.05%
0.16%
0.30%
2.11%
0.86%
1.44%
11.98%
1.55%
0.25%
2.29%
7.64%
Source: Bloomberg

International Major Currencies

SPOT

PkR/US$ Trend
109.0

107.0

105.0

103.0

101.0

99.0

Feb-14

Dec-13

Nov-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

Feb-13

97.0

Source: Bloomberg

4Apr14

28Mar14

DollarIndex

80.516

80.176

USD/PkR

98.195

98.084

USD/JPY

103.910

102.830

EUR/USD

1.370

1.375

GBP/USD

1.656

1.664

AUD/USD

0.925

0.925

NZD/USD

0.854

0.866

Chg+/

WoW

CYTD

0.340

0.42%

0.60%

0.111

0.11%

6.77%

1.080

1.05%

1.33%

0.006

0.40%

0.33%

0.008

0.47%

0.01%

0.000

0.04%

3.75%

0.012

1.35%

4.02%
0.03%

CHF/USD

0.893

0.887

0.006

0.72%

CAD/USD

1.102

1.106

0.004

0.34%

3.77%

USD/KRW

1,054

1,069

15.500

1.45%

0.37%

CNY/USD

6.212

6.213

0.000

2.61%
0.00%
Source: Bloomberg

Commodities

TRJ-CRB Index
320
310
300
290
280

SPOT

Units

4Apr14

28Mar14

WoW

CYTD

TRJCRB

Points

303.87

305.21

0.44%

8.46%

Nymex(WTI)

US$/bbl.

101.17

101.67

0.49%

2.79%

ICEBrent

US$/bbl.

105.84

107.27

1.33%

4.49%

N.GasHenryHub

US$/Mmbtu

4.4829

4.4826

0.01%

3.20%

Cotton

USd/Pound

95.3

97.3

2.06%

6.24%

Gold

US$/Tr.Oz

1292.75

1295.27

0.19%

7.22%

Sliver

US$/Tr.Oz

19.937

19.83

0.54%

2.41%

Copper

US$/MT

6643.25

6685.5

0.63%

9.93%

Platinum

US$/Oz

1442.8

1411.13

2.24%

5.36%

Coal

US$/MT

73.05

73.05

0.00%

13.65%

270
260

Mar-14

Jan-14

Feb-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

250

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

4 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Chart Bank
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

Advance to Decline Ratio

(%)

1.60

12.0

1.50

10.0

1.40

8.0

1.30

6.0

1.20

4.0

1.10

2.0

FIPI Flows for the week

Apr14

Jan14

Nov13

Jun13

Apr13

LIPI Flows for the week

(US$mn)

(US$'000)
10,000

9,182

9,000

NBFC,4.70

8,068

7,588

8,000

Apr14

Sep13

Feb13

Jul12

Dec11

May11

Mar10

Oct10

0.80
Aug09

(4.0)
Jan09

0.90
Jul08

(2.0)

Aug13

1.00

7,000

Co.,(6.33)

5,607

6,000

M.Funds,
Others,
(11.11)
(3.09)

(5.00)

5,343

(10.00)

Bank/DFI,
(5.78)

5,000
4,000

(15.00)

3,000
2,000

(20.00) Ind.,0.10

1,000

(25.00)

3Apr

4Apr

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

MSCIEM

Mar14

Jan14

Dec13

MSCIFM

Oct13

Apr14

Jan14
AKDUniverse

KSE100

75%
65%
55%
45%
35%
25%
15%
5%
5%
15%

Aug13

KSEAllShareIndex

Nov13

Aug13

Jun13

Apr13

55%
49%
43%
37%
31%
25%
19%
13%
7%
1%
5%

Jun13

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

Apr13

2Apr

Feb13

1Apr

Jan13

31Mar

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

4 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuations

4Apr14
EPS(PkR)
EPSchg(%)
EPSchg(%)ExFinancials
BookValueperShare(PkR)
Payout(%)
Valuations
PricetoEarnings(x)
PricetoBook(x)
PER(x)ExFinancials
P/BVS(x)ExFinancials
PricetoCF(x)
EarningsYield(%)
DividendYield(%)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Profitability
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
ChginSales(%)
GrossMargin(%)
OperatingMargin(%)
NetMargin(%)

2011A
8.04
24.30
25.15
37.64
52.26

2012A
8.74
8.65
8.76
43.11
50.30

2013A/E
9.55
9.29
16.62
49.47
50.11

2014F
11.93
24.92
28.70
55.50
48.32

2015F
13.67
14.60
15.41
61.92
48.52

12.89
2.76
13.64
3.29
21.33
7.76
4.05
8.03

11.87
2.41
12.54
2.90
26.47
8.43
4.24
7.07

10.86
2.10
10.75
2.46
8.64
9.21
4.62
6.30

8.69
1.87
8.35
2.14
20.99
11.50
5.56
5.52

7.58
1.68
7.24
1.90
11.79
13.18
6.40
4.89

21.37
3.85
17.34
23.41
14.47
11.38

20.27
3.58
17.57
21.77
12.85
10.52

19.31
3.76
5.67
22.87
13.46
10.88

21.50
4.16
12.61
22.48
13.50
12.07

22.09
4.29
10.90
23.03
14.35
12.47

Source: AKD Research

Market PER Chart 2014F

(x)
15

11

Apr-14

Jan-13

Oct-11

Jul-10

Apr-09

Jan-08

Oct-06

Jul-05

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2014F

(x)
3.5
2.6
1.7

Apr14

Jan13

Oct11

Jul10

Apr09

Jan08

Oct06

Jul05

0.8

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

4 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations

Stocks

Symbol

AutomobileandParts
IndusMotors
PakSuzukiMotors
Construc onandMaterials
DGKhanCement
Chemicals
EngroPolymerChemicals
ICIPakistanLimited
Lo eChemicalPakistanLtd.
EngroCorpora on
EngroFer lizersLimited
DawoodHerculesLimited
FaujiFert.BinQasimLtd.
FaujiFer lizerCompany
Fa maFer lizer
FoodProducers
EngroFoodsLimited
Oil&Gas
Oil&GasDevelopmentCo.
PakOilfields
PakistanStateOil
Electricity
HubPowerCo.
KotAdduPowerCompany
FixedLineTelecommunica on
PakistanTelecommunica on
PersonalGoods
NishatMills
Banks
AlliedBankLimited
BankAlFalah
HabibBankLimited
MCBBankLimited
Na onalBankofPakistan
UnitedBankLtd

INDU
PSMC

DGKC

EPCL
ICI
LOTCHEM
ENGRO
EFERT
DAWH
FFBL
FFC
FATIMA

EFOODS

OGDC
POL
PSO

HUBC
KAPCO

PTC

NML

ABL
BAFL
HBL
MCB
NBP
UBL

Price

TP

(PkR)

(PkR)

Stance

EPS

(PkR)
12A 13A/E 14F

PE(x)

12A 13A/E

PB(x)

DY(%)

14F 12A13A/E 14F

12A13A/E

14F

447.8 384.29 Reduce 54.7 42.7 49.18.2 10.59.1 2.12.0 1.87.1 5.65.6
202.0 194.99 Neutral 11.9 22.5 23.017.09.08.8 1.11.0 0.91.2 2.02.5

92.5 106.95 Accumulate 9.4 12.6 12.99.97.47.1 1.20.8 0.81.6 3.23.5

15.7 16.49 Accumulate 0.11.11.1 134.8 14.7 13.6 1.61.5 1.3

382.6 310.52 Reduce 10.57.4 22.236.3 51.4 17.2 3.63.3 2.81.4 0.51.8
7.9 8.53 Accumulate 0.0(0.3) 0.6 n.m n.m 13.4 1.01.0 0.93.2
192.6 196.20 Neutral 2.6 18.7 22.973.9 10.38.4 2.31.3 1.2
49.1 55.45 Accumulate (2.3) 4.25.6(21.7) 11.68.7 4.02.9 2.2
90.3 71.83
Sell
2.09.2 13.144.39.86.9 2.2 n.a n.a1.1
43.5 49.33 Accumulate 4.66.06.69.47.26.6 3.22.6 2.6 10.3 12.6 14.4
113.5 138.62
Buy
16.4 15.8 16.46.97.26.9 6.66.0 5.8 13.7 14.1 14.3
31.4 35.09 Accumulate 2.94.15.010.87.76.3 2.32.0 1.76.4 6.46.4

122.6 80.92
Sell
3.40.32.636.2 445.3 47.1 9.38.2 7.0

259.2 302.09 Accumulate 22.5 21.1 28.911.5 12.39.0 4.23.4 2.82.8 3.24.5
550.4 612.57 Accumulate 50.1 45.8 59.111.0 12.09.3 3.73.7 3.49.5 8.28.4
418.4 345.59 Reduce 36.7 50.8 91.511.48.24.6 2.11.7 1.31.3 1.22.4

53.8 72.19
Buy
7.18.87.07.66.17.7 2.01.9 2.0 11.2 14.9 16.7
59.8 64.00 Accumulate 6.98.48.08.77.27.5 2.22.2 2.1 11.5 12.5 13.0

31.9 29.71 Reduce 2.23.14.214.2 10.37.6 1.41.3 1.37.19.4

122.7 137.54 Accumulate 10.0 16.6 18.712.27.46.6 1.10.7 0.72.9 3.33.9

96.0 100.03 Neutral 11.4 14.2 11.78.46.88.2 1.91.5 1.46.2 5.75.7

27.9 32.0* Accumulate 3.43.53.88.38.07.3 1.31.2 1.17.2 7.25.4
176.7 149.99 Reduce 17.0 17.1 19.110.4 10.39.2 1.81.7 1.53.9 4.55.1
268.7 245.48 Reduce 18.8 19.7 20.914.3 13.7 12.8 2.82.6 2.34.0 4.74.9
57.1 59.99 Accumulate 7.32.57.47.8 23.07.7 0.80.8 0.7 10.7 3.59.6
165.0 150.03 Reduce 15.6 15.8 16.510.5 10.5 10.0 2.01.8 1.75.2 5.25.5

*TPforBAFLrisestoPkR33.8/shareuponsuccessfulWaridstakesale

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

4 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance

Stocks

Sym bol

Price
1-Apr-14

1M

CYTD

1 Year
High

1 Year
Low

27565.50

6.9

7.6

25.4

50.9

9.1

27104.70

17492.00

AGTL
MTL

206.64
466.00

-24.7
-3.9

-2.5
-3.6

1.9
-1.4

-2.5
0.0

-2.7
-3.4

273.49
519.58

197.00
433.73

INDU
PSMC

396.00
203.90

10.9
28.2

20.0
31.2

21.1
51.3

26.6
100.1

18.9
32.5

398.10
167.70

282.00
97.29

DGKC
LUCK

93.12
332.79

6.9
2.2

3.7
7.1

30.7
42.3

30.9
97.3

8.6
11.0

96.43
321.67

61.23
160.97

EPCL
ICI
LOTCHEM
DAWH
EFERT
ENGRO
FATIMA
FFBL
FFC

15.59
375.18
8.03
89.95
60.84
188.37
31.72
43.48
112.36

3.9
25.3
22.2
8.2
2.0
-0.2
10.8
-0.7
3.3

8.2
48.0
7.8
59.0
n.a
18.0
11.5
-2.2
-1.9

15.9
109.0
18.6
76.3
n.a
37.4
23.9
14.5
10.3

49.3
166.1
8.4
70.2
n.a
40.2
40.7
13.7
0.1

16.3
48.3
9.4
60.3
n.a
18.9
11.1
-0.8
0.4

16.66
326.31
8.89
85.56
56.85
187.38
30.16
45.42
119.52

9.29
135.37
6.46
37.88
29.66
103.25
21.29
36.90
101.37

EFOODS

122.41

26.8

17.3

20.1

-4.5

17.2

162.22

80.37

47.07

13.1

22.4

80.3

89.4

26.0

74.12

23.57

OGDC
POL
PSO

246.59
546.56
441.75

-6.0
9.5
22.5

-11.8
7.7
32.0

3.3
25.5
60.7

20.6
19.3
115.9

-10.8
9.8
33.0

287.84
539.63
367.10

197.32
428.73
184.67

HUBC
KAPCO

53.06
59.05

-2.9
2.2

-13.9
-4.2

-18.6
-8.0

3.1
11.2

-12.6
-4.4

73.42
68.34

50.13
49.53

PTC

30.90

5.6

7.0

15.3

51.2

8.6

31.70

17.46

NCL
NML

47.62
118.44

-10.6
-10.3

-24.6
-11.3

-16.0
27.4

-2.2
40.3

-20.9
-6.9

68.82
140.79

43.31
69.03

ABL
AKBL
BAFL
HBL
HMB
MCB
MEBL
NBP
UBL

95.98
17.12
27.20
175.55
26.70
258.42
39.50
54.50
164.00

19.3
25.4
-2.3
19.0
9.9
5.7
4.0
-3.8
23.0

17.3
22.4
-0.4
17.4
4.7
-0.4
1.8
-6.2
23.3

34.3
33.1
30.7
27.2
20.6
12.0
4.5
9.9
27.4

77.2
7.1
79.3
98.9
71.4
49.9
50.0
38.5
97.0

17.3
22.3
0.6
15.9
6.5
1.1
0.3
-6.1
23.7

94.51
16.15
28.66
181.57
26.16
316.87
40.87
60.01
154.21

55.01
10.76
14.77
88.00
14.61
183.00
24.11
37.66
82.16

KSE-100 Index

Absolute Perform ance (%)

3M
6M
12M

Industrial Engineering
Al-Ghazi Tractor
Millat Tractors
Autom obile and Parts
Indus Motors
Pak Suzuki Motors

Construction and Materials

DG Khan Cement
Lucky Cement
Chem icals
Engro Polymer Chemicals
ICI Pakistan Limited
Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited
Daw ood Hercules
Engro Fertilizers Ltd.
Engro Chemical
Fatima Fertilizer
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd.
Fauji Fertilizer Company
Food Producers
Engro Foods Limited
Non Life Insurance
Adamjee Insurance

AICL

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co.
Pak Oilfields
Pakistan State Oil
Electricity
Hub Pow er Co.
Kot Addu Pow er Company

Fixed Line Telecom m unication

Pakistan Telecommunication
Personal Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd.
Nishat Mills
Banks
Allied Bank Limited
Askari Bank Limited
Bank AlFalah
Habib Bank Limited
Habib Metropolitan Bank
MCB Bank Limited
Meezan Bank Limited
National Bank of Pakistan
United Bank Ltd

Source: KSE & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

4 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Economic Snapshot
End Month Data

Units

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

T-bill
3M

9.26

8.93

9.00

9.15

9.47

9.63

9.93

9.92

9.91

6M

9.16

9.01

9.20

9.35

9.68

9.88

10.02

9.98

9.95

12M

9.21

9.00

9.28

9.41

9.76

9.91

10.05

9.99

9.99

PIB 10Y

10.86

11.57

11.97

12.28

12.83

12.93

12.90

12.59

12.80

KIBOR 6M

9.39

9.08

9.15

9.29

9.55

9.52

10.13

10.14

10.15

Discount rate

9.00

9.00

9.00

9.50

9.50

10.00

10.00

10.00

10.00

Headline inflation

5.90

8.26

8.55

7.40

9.10

10.90

9.18

7.90

7.90

Core inflation

7.80

8.20

8.50

8.70

8.40

8.50

8.20

8.00

7.80

Food inflation

7.90

9.20

10.30

7.90

9.80

13.00

9.30

7.20

7.60

Export (PBS)

US$ (mn)

2,197

2,095

1,996

2,622

1,864

1,804

2,275

2,061

2,167

Import (PBS)

US$ (mn)

3,940

3,814

3,572

3,791

3,281

3,651

3,561

4,137

3,600

Trade Deficit (PBS)

US$ (mn)

(1,743)

(1,719)

(1,576)

(1,169)

(1,417)

(1,847)

(1,286)

(2,076)

(1,433)

Home Remittances

US$ (mn)

1,165

1,404

1,233

1,283

1,348

1,131

1,385

1,246

1,210

Current Account

US$ (mn)

(163)

46

(575)

(574)

(166)

(572)

285

(464)

164

Deposits

PkR (bn)

7,316

7,069

7,174

7,125

7,133

7,309

7,529

7,566

7,599

Advances

PkR (bn)

3,869

3,788

3,817

3,831

3,921

4,008

4,071

4,127

4,110

Investments

PkR (bn)

4,129

3,837

3,708

3,873

3,776

4,035

4,070

4,217

4,443

W. Avg. lending rate

11.36

11.28

11.11

11.10

11.10

11.13

11.07

n.a

n.a

W. Avg. deposit rate

5.01

4.97

4.83

4.79

4.90

4.89

5.05

n.a

n.a

Spread rate

6.35

6.31

6.28

6.31

6.20

6.24

6.02

n.a

n.a

147,221

203,596

153,329

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Inflation

External Indicators

Banking Sector

Public Finance
Tax collection

PkR (mn)

267,608

124,257

Direct taxes

PkR (mn)

128,889

30,745

44,574

86,436

50,466

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Indirect Taxes

PkR (mn)

138,719

93,512

102,647

117,160

102,863

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Reserves (RHS)

US$ (mn)

11,020

9,998

9,995

9,525

8,247

8,314

7,988

8,744

USDPkR - Interbank

PkR/USD

104.51

105.24

106.89

107.64

106.93

105.49

105.12

Currency

98.94

10,287
101.90

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

4 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Analyst Certification
We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related
to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the
specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst

Tel no.

E-mail

Coverage

Naveed Vakil
Raza Jafri, CFA
Anum Dhedhi
Bilal Alvi
Qasim Anwar
Hassan Quadri
Azher Ali Quli
Nasir Khan
Tariq Mehmood

+92 111 253 111 (692)

+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (637)
+92 111 253 111 (647)
+92 111 253 111 (680)
+92 111 253 111 (639)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (643)

naveed.vakil@akdsecurities.net
raza.jafri@akdsecurities.net
anum.dhedhi@akdsecurities.net
bilal.alvi@akdsecurities.net
qasim.anwar@akdsecurities.net
hassan.quadri@akdsecurities.net
azher.quli@akdsecurities.net
nasir.khan@akdsecurities.net
tariq.mehmood@akdsecurities.net

Director - Research & Business Development

Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks
Pakistan Economy
Textiles, Cements & Chemical
Technical Analysis
Research Production / Autos
Research Production
Research Production
Library Operations

DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS

This publication/communication or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AKD Securities
Limited. AKD Securities Limited has produced this report for private circulation to professional and institutional clients only. The information,
opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing so
would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities Limited to any additional registration or licensing requirement
within such jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable and complied by
our research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to
its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Any opinions or estimates herein reflect the judgment of AKD Securities Limited at the date of this
publication/ communication and are subject to change at any time without notice.
This report is not a solicitation or any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. It is for information purposes only and is not
intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, you
should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. Neither AKD Securities
Limited nor any of its affiliates or any other person connected with the company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential
loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained therein.
Subject to any applicable laws and regulations, AKD Securities Limited, its affiliates or group companies or individuals connected with AKD
Securities Limited may have used the information contained herein before publication and may have positions in, may from time to time purchase or sell or have a material interest in any of the securities mentioned or related securities or may currently or in future have or have had a
relationship with, or may provide or have provided investment banking, capital markets and/or other services to, the entities referred to herein,
their advisors and/or any other connected parties.
AKD Securities Limited (the company) or persons connected with it may from time to time have an investment banking or other relationship,
including but not limited to, the participation or investment in commercial banking transaction (including loans) with some or all of the issuers
mentioned therein, either for their own account or the account of their customers. Persons connected with the company may provide corporate
finance and other services to the issuer of the securities mentioned herein, including the issuance of options on securities mentioned herein or
any related investment and may make a purchase and/or sale of the securities or any related investment from time to time in the open market or
otherwise, in each case either as principal or agent.
This document is being distributed in the United State solely to "major institutional investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities
Exchange Act of 1934, and may not be furnished to any other person in the United States. Each U.S. person that receives this document by its
acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it: is a "major institutional investor", as so defined; and understands the whole document. Any
such person wishing to follow-up any of the information should do so by contacting a registered representative of AKD Securities Limited.
The securities discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some states in the U.S. or in some countries.
Any recipient, other than a U.S. recipient that wishes further information should contact the company.
This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose.

10