Pakistan Weekly Update

StockSmart

AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

Weekly Review

Index & Volume Chart

Universe Gainers & Losers

500,000

Sym bol

400,000

120.52

NIB

101.91

LPCL

97.81

JSBL

77.55

29,100
200,000

29,000

100,000

28,900

28,800

ReadyVolume(LHS)
(mn)

(Index)

700

30,000

600

28,500
27,000

500

18Apr

JSCL

29,200

300,000

17Apr

153.27

29,300
29,070

16Apr

29,458

15Apr

KEL

29,096
29,094

14Apr

Volum e (m n)

29,400

KSE100Index(RHS)

8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%

PTC

29,350

Top-5 Volum e Leaders

12.0%
10.0%

PSO

29,500

600,000

DAWH

(Index)

(Shrs'000)

AICL

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)

This week
367.96
Last week
311.93
Change
17.96%

EFOODS

US$bn
72.43
72.35
0.11%

EFERT

PkRbn
6,982.19
7,034.63
-0.75%

UBL

Indices
KMI-30
Allshare
This week 46,407.18 21,723.29
Last week 47,226.00 21,857.82
Change
-1.73%
-0.62%

SHEL

Indices
KSE-100
KSE-30
This week 29,069.93 20,297.49
Last week 29,249.45 20,533.69
Change
-0.61%
-1.15%

The KSE-100 index remained subdued in the outgoing week, down 0.61%WoW to close
at 29,069 points although average traded volumes increased by 18%WoW to clock in at
368mn shares. Major news flow during the week included 1) the Pakistan Taliban announced that ceasefire will not be extended, 2) ECC in its meeting chaired by Ishaq Dar
decided to withdraw SRO15(1)/2010 that exempted cotton yarn import from customs duty
of 5%, and 3) the bids of four mobile operators qualified for the auction of 3G and 4G
licenses (Mobilink, Telenor, Ufone and China Mobile). Key developments on the economic front included 1) In the latest T-bill auction an amount of PkR291bn was raised vs.
target of PkR500bn, 2) Mar14 Current account deficit clocked in at US$156mn vs. a surplus of US$167mn in Feb14, and 3) US$2bn raised through Eurobonds credited to SBP.
Major gainers during the week included ABL (+11.3%WoW), AKBL (+10.5%WoW), SHEL
(+9.4%WoW) and UBL (+8.6%WoW) while major losers included PTC (-7.5%WoW),
PSO (-5.3%WoW), DAWH(-5.2%WoW) and EFOODS (-5.1%WoW). Top five volume
leaders during the week included KEL (153.27mn shares), JSCL (120.52mn shares), NIB
(101.91mn shares), LPCL (97.81mn shares) and JSBL (77.55mn shares).

ABL

research@akdsecurities.net
009221 111 253 111

AKBL

AKD Research

Mkt Cap.
This week
Last week
Change

18 April 2014

Source: KSE & AKD Research

Outlook

25,500

400

24,000

300

22,500

200

21,000

Volume (LHS)

Apr-14

18,000
Apr-13

19,500

0
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14

100

Market performance will likely be underpinned by the ongoing result season where any positive upside surprises could lead to selective performers. However, with coming week being the
rollover week, we believe certain pressure can be felt in PSO, ENGRO, ATRL and NML as
these 4 scrips make up 42% of the total open interest position which stands at PkR5.9bn.
Over the medium term, we retain our preference for cyclical where continuing top down improvement may lead to performance for Banks, Cements, Chemicals and Autos.

KSE-100 Index

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies

Important disclosures covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

AKD SECURITIES
Member: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg

(AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com
and Reuters Knowledge

Copyright2014 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended
for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be
contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within
such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation
or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD
Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

18 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

Apr 18, 2014

PakistanEconomy:CAremainsincontrol,(AKDDaily,April18,2014)

29,560
29,490
29,420
29,350
29,280
29,210
29,140
29,070
16:32

15:47

15:03

14:19

13:36

12:54

12:11

11:27

9:59

10:43

9:15

29,000

Apr 17, 2014

29,690
29,610
29,530
29,450
29,370
29,290
29,210
29,130
15:36

15:31
15:38

14:42

14:50

Inamovetoprovidesomerelieftotheyarnmanufacturingsegmentofthetex lesec
tor,theECCinitsmee ngyesterdaydecidedtowithdrawtheexemp onof5%import
duty on yarn. Recall that the spinning segment has been struggling to cope with a
slumpintheyarnmarketwithyarnimportdemandfromChinacomingoby17%MoM
duringFeb'13.Thisreflectsadeclineof26%fromtheall mehighlevelof203mntons
ofyarnimportswitnessedinAug'13.Yarnmanufacturerswerefacingatough mein
thedomes cmarketaswellduetocompe onfromcheaperIndianyarn.Whilethe
revivalofanimportdutyonyarnwillprovidesomerelieftothelocalyarnmanufactur
ers,thebenefitwillbelimitedtosalesinthedomes cmarket.Furthermore,thismove
willlikelyhurthighervalueaddedgoodsmanufacturerswhoweremi ga ngincrease
in electricity costs by sourcing cheaper yarn from India. For fully integrated mills the
impactonearningswilldependontwofactorsi.e.thepercentageofyarnsalesinthe
domes c market and the reliance on imported yarn for weaving. As per FY13 results
(assumingyarnformsapproximately75%80%ofthecostofsales),NMLmeets22%of
its yarn consump on requirements in the weaving division through inhouse sources,
while the same stands at 46% for NCL. In this regard, while the imposi on of higher
yarnimportdutywillallowspinnerstobenefitthroughanincreaseinlocalyarnprices,
the benefit will come at the expense of manufacturers higher up the value addi on
chain.Weexpecttheimpactofhigheryarnimportdutytobelowerforver callyinte
gratedmillssuchasNMLandNCLascomparedtopureyarnplayssuchasGADT.
LOTCHEM_1QCY14Resultpreview,(AKDDaily,April17,2014)

Apr 16, 2014

29,464
29,421
29,378
29,335
29,292
29,249
29,206
29,163
14:10

13:30

12:50

12:10

11:30

10:50

9:30

10:10

29,120

Apr 15, 2014

29,178
29,137
29,096
29,055
29,014
28,973
28,932
28,891
14:06

13:20

12:34

11:48

11:03

9:30

10:17

28,850

Apr 14, 2014

The BoD of LOTCHEM is scheduled to meet on 24Apr14 to announce the result for
1QCY14. In this regard, we expect the company to post NLAT of PkR31mn (LPS:
PkR0.02), a sharp improvement over 4QCY13 where the company posted NLAT of
PkR584mn(LPS:PkR0.39).RegionalPTAPxPrimaryMargins(PM)recoveredsomewhat
toUS$82/tonduring1QCY14fromUS$65/tonintheprecedingquarterresul nginan
improvementinthegrossmargins.However,expectedgrowthinregionalPTAcapacity
islikelytokeepmarginsdepressedintheneartermasnewplantscompeteformarket
share.ThisisdespiteadeclineinPxNapthaspreadsduetoaddi onalPxcapacitycom
ingonline.WelooktoreviseourinvestmentcaseforLOTCHEMpostthe1QCY14result.

29,350
29,310
29,270
29,230
29,190
29,150
29,110
29,070
15:33

14:41

13:49

12:58

12:06

11:14

9:30

29,030
10:22

Tex leSector:Finallysomereliefforspinners,(AKDDaily,April18,2014)

14:52

13:50

12:58

12:06

11:14

9:30

10:22

29,050

The CA deficit for Mar'14 has clocked in at US$156mn vs. a revised surplus of
US$167mn in Feb'14. As a result, the 9MFY14 CA deficit has been recorded at
US$2,173mn(1.2%ofGDP)comparedtoadeficitofUS$1,255mn(0.7%ofGDP)inthe
same period last year. This substan al rise in the deficit was primarily due to 1) 14%
MoMincreaseinbalanceoftradeingoods(Exportsup3%MoM,Importsup7%MoM),
and2)BalanceoftradeinServices,up567%MoMlargelyduetoCSFreceiptsreceived
inFeb14.Atthesame meRemi ancescon nuetoproviderelieftothecurrentac
count, up 10%MoM to record at US$1,337mn. We note that while the CA deficit has
widened,thisislargelyduetoahighbase(he yCSFreceiptslastyear)andthedeficit
s ll remains contained rela ve to GDP. In this regard, fx reserves rose to US$10bn
(slatedtocrossUS$12bnpostEurobondreceipts).Theincreaseinfxreservesislargely
duetonetinflowswherePakistanreceivedUS$1.5bnfromSaudiArabiaunderthePaki
stanDevelopmentFund.TogetherwiththeUS$2bnraisedthroughEurobondauc on,
thePkRhasappreciatedby7%CYTDto96.4vs.theUS$.Consideringposi verealinter
estratesstandat1.4%andfurtherforeigninflowsareexpected(3Gauc on/priva za
onproceeds)webelieveSBPmaycommencemonetaryeasinginMay14andcutthe
DRbyatleast50bps.

Source:KSE&AKDResearch

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

18 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

CircularDebtresolu onleadsto8MFY14FObasedgenera on,(AKDDaily,April16,
2014)
Followingpar alresolu onofCircularDebt(CD)inwhichthegovtinjectedIndepend
entPowerProducers(IPPs)withPkR270bn,massiveimprovementincumula vepower
produc on of the country was expected. However, the velocity of this improvement
remainedslowasPakistanstotalpowergenera onaccordingtodatareleasedbyNa
onalElectricPowerRegulatoryAuthority(NEPRA)rosebymere6%YoYtoalmost11k
MW,up6%YoY(or626MW)in8MFY14asagainst10.3kMWduringthesameperiod
lastyear.Atthesame me,produc oncominginfromFO(FurnaceOil)basedpower
producers (the prime beneficiaries of Circular Debt resolu on) rose by an impressive
16%YoY(or556mw)to4.1kMWvs.3.6kMWproducedduringthecorrespondingperi
od last year while. Conversely, genera on through gas witnessed a sharp decline, as
demandforthenaturalresourcekeptrisingwhilesupplyremainedstagnant.Thisledto
gasbased genera on diminishingby15%YoY (365MW) to 2kMW from 2.4kMW last
year.Onceagain,Hydelandotherlesscostlygenera onsourcescametothesectors
rescue. Genera on through Hydel improved by 8%YoY (or 227MW) to 3.8k MW in
8MFY14asagainst3.6kMWin8MFY13,mainlydowntobe eroverallwaterflowses
pecially during winter season (Dec13). Following suit, genera on from other sources
(coal, nuclear and wind) increased by robust 46%YoY (or 193MW) to 613MW from
420MWlastyear.

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

18 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Regional Valuations (2014)

Major World Indices Performance

EPSGrowth
Pakistan
25%
Indonesia
13%
Malaysia
18%
Philippines
10%
Vitenam
15%
India
15%
China
14%

PE(x)
8.87
11.84
13.16
14.93
16.06
12.46
7.09

Country

BloombergCode

%
Pakistan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Vitenam
India
China

DivdYld
5.45
2.24
3.38
2.35
2.85
1.99
3.98

Pakistan
Srilanka
Thailand
Jakarta
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
HongKong
Singapore
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S&P
DJIA
NASDAQComposite
UK
German
Qatar
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Kuwait
Oman
SaudiArabia
MSCIEM
MSCIFM

KSE100Index
CSEALLIndex
SETIndex
JCIIndex
FBMKLCIIndex
PCOMPIndex
VNINDEXIndex
HSIIndex
FSSTIIndex
IBXIndex
RTSSTDIndex
SENSEXIndex
SHCOMPIndex
SPXIndex
INDUIndex
CCMPIndex
UKXIndex
DAXIndex
DSMIndex
ADSMIIndex
DFMGIIndex
KWSEIDXIndex
MSM30Index
SASEIDXIndex
MXEFIndex
MXFMIndex

ROE
21.50
18.55
13.48
14.87
17.78
16.41
14.44

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

18Apr14

11Apr14

29,070
6,181
1,409
4,897
1,853
6,671
565
22,760
3,254
21,618
9,134
22,629
2,098
1,865
16,409
4,096
6,625
9,410
12,551
5,157
4,762
7,451
6,844
9,531
1,009
659

29,249
6,092
1,389
4,817
1,853
6,597
601
23,004
3,198
21,493
9,183
22,629
2,131
1,816
16,027
4,000
6,562
9,315
12,397
5,172
4,839
7,574
6,809
9,509
1,015
658

WoW

CYTD

0.61%
15.08%
1.45%
4.53%
1.44%
8.51%
1.67%
14.57%
0.00%
0.76%
1.13%
13.27%
5.87%
12.03%
1.06%
2.34%
1.74%
2.73%
0.58%
1.52%
0.53%
10.25%
0.00%
6.89%
1.54%
0.86%
2.71%
0.89%
2.38%
1.01%
2.39%
1.94%
0.97%
1.83%
1.01%
1.49%
1.24%
20.92%
0.29%
20.19%
1.59%
41.32%
1.62%
1.31%
0.51%
0.14%
0.23%
11.66%
0.61%
0.65%
0.12%
10.89%
Source: Bloomberg

International Major Currencies

SPOT

18Apr14

11Apr14

DollarIndex

79.832

79.452

0.380

USD/PkR

97.650

96.550

1.100

1.14%

7.29%

105.0

USD/JPY

102.400

101.620

0.780

0.77%

2.76%

103.0

EUR/USD

1.382

1.389

0.007

0.48%

0.55%

101.0

GBP/USD

1.679

1.673

0.005

0.33%

1.40%

99.0

AUD/USD

0.934

0.940

0.006

0.64%

4.71%

97.0

NZD/USD

0.858

0.869

0.011

1.21%

4.49%

95.0

CHF/USD

0.883

0.876

0.007

0.74%

1.15%

CAD/USD

1.101

1.098

0.003

0.29%

3.66%

USD/KRW

1,038

1,035

2.230

0.22%

1.16%

CNY/USD

6.224

6.210

0.014

2.81%
0.22%
Source: Bloomberg

Apr-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

107.0

Apr-13

109.0

Jun-13

PkR/US$ Trend

Source: Bloomberg

Chg+/

WoW

CYTD

0.48%

0.25%

Commodities

TRJ-CRB Index

SPOT

Units

18Apr14

11Apr14

WoW

CYTD

305

TRJCRB

Points

311.46

309.39

0.67%

11.17%

300

Nymex(WTI)

US$/bbl.

104.3

103.74

0.54%

5.97%

295

ICEBrent

US$/bbl.

109.71

106.51

3.00%

1.00%

290

N.GasHenryHub

US$/Mmbtu

4.5652

4.6504

1.83%

5.09%

285

Cotton

USd/Pound

93.85

92.2

1.79%

4.63%

280

Gold

US$/Tr.Oz

1296.75

1318.42

1.64%

7.56%

Sliver

US$/Tr.Oz

19.605

20

1.97%

0.70%

Copper

US$/MT

6662.5

6664.5

0.03%

9.67%

Platinum

US$/Oz

1413

1458

3.09%

3.18%

Coal

US$/MT

72.95

72.95

0.00%

13.77%

275

Apr-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Feb-14

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

May-13

270

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

18 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Chart Bank
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

Advance to Decline Ratio

(%)

1.60

12.0

1.50

10.0

1.40

8.0

1.30

6.0

1.20

4.0

FIPI Flows for the week

Apr14

Jan14

Nov13

Jun13

Apr13

Apr14

Sep13

Feb13

Jul12

May11

Dec11

0.80
Oct10

(4.0)
Mar10

0.90
Aug09

(2.0)
Jan09

1.00

Jul08

Aug13

1.10

2.0

LIPI Flows for the week

(US$mn)

(US$'000)

15.00

6,000
4,653

5,000

Ind.,0.10

4,809
10.00

4,000
5.00

3,000

Others,0.94

Co.,0.58

2,000

NBFC,4.70

682

1,000

(5.00)

(10.00)

(1,000)

17Apr

18Apr

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

MSCIEM
MSCIFM

Apr14

Apr14

Jan14

AKDUniverse

KSE100

75%
65%
55%
45%
35%
25%
15%
5%
5%
15%

Feb14

KSEAllShareIndex

Nov13

Aug13

Jun13

Apr13

55%
49%
43%
37%
31%
25%
19%
13%
7%
1%
5%

Dec13

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

Oct13

16Apr

Aug13

15Apr

Jun13

14Apr

M.Funds,
(11.11)

Bank/DFI,
(12.23)

(15.00)

Apr13

(1,384)

Feb13

(1,254)

Jan13

(2,000)

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

18 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuations

18Apr14
EPS(PkR)
EPSchg(%)
EPSchg(%)ExFinancials
BookValueperShare(PkR)
Payout(%)
Valuations
PricetoEarnings(x)
PricetoBook(x)
PER(x)ExFinancials
P/BVS(x)ExFinancials
PricetoCF(x)
EarningsYield(%)
DividendYield(%)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Profitability
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
ChginSales(%)
GrossMargin(%)
OperatingMargin(%)
NetMargin(%)

2011A
8.04
24.30
25.15
37.64
52.26

2012A
8.74
8.65
8.76
43.11
50.30

2013A/E
9.55
9.29
16.62
49.47
50.11

2014F
11.93
24.92
28.70
55.50
48.32

2015F
13.67
14.60
15.41
61.92
48.52

13.15
2.81
13.59
3.28
21.76
7.60
3.97
8.01

12.11
2.45
12.50
2.89
27.01
8.26
4.16
7.05

11.08
2.14
10.72
2.45
8.81
9.03
4.52
6.28

8.87
1.91
8.33
2.13
21.41
11.28
5.45
5.50

7.74
1.71
7.21
1.89
12.03
12.92
6.27
4.87

21.37
3.85
17.34
23.41
14.47
11.38

20.27
3.58
17.57
21.77
12.85
10.52

19.31
3.76
5.67
22.87
13.46
10.88

21.50
4.16
12.61
22.48
13.50
12.07

22.09
4.29
10.90
23.03
14.35
12.47

Source: AKD Research

Market PER Chart 2014F

(x)
15

11

Apr-14

Jan-13

Oct-11

Jul-10

Apr-09

Jan-08

Oct-06

Jul-05

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2014F

(x)
3.5
2.6
1.7

Apr14

Jan13

Oct11

Jul10

Apr09

Jan08

Oct06

Jul05

0.8

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

18 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations

EPS

PE(x)

PB(x)

DY(%)
(PkR)

(PkR)
(PkR)

12A 13A/E 14F

12A 13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14F
AutomobileandParts

IndusMotors
INDU
490.9 UR
UR
54.7 42.7 UR 9.0 11.5 UR 2.32.2 UR 6.5 5.1 UR
PakSuzukiMotors
PSMC
218.9 UR
UR
11.9 22.5 UR 18.49.7 UR 1.11.0 UR 1.1 1.8 UR
Construc onandMaterials

DGKC
92.7 106.95 Accumulate 9.4 12.6 12.99.97.47.2 1.20.8 0.81.6 3.23.5
DGKhanCement
Chemicals

EngroPolymerChemicals
EPCL
16.8 16.49 Neutral 0.11.11.1 144.3 15.7 14.6 1.81.6 1.4
ICIPakistanLimited
ICI
385.0 310.52 Reduce 10.57.4 22.236.5 51.7 17.3 3.63.3 2.81.4 0.51.8
Lo eChemicalPakistanLtd.
LOTCHEM 7.5 8.53 Accumulate 0.0(0.3) 0.6 n.m n.m 12.8 0.90.9 0.93.3
EngroCorpora on
ENGRO
213.1 196.20 Reduce 2.6 18.7 22.981.7 11.49.3 2.51.5 1.3
EngroFer lizersLimited
EFERT
49.1 55.45 Accumulate (2.3) 4.25.6(21.7) 11.68.7 4.02.9 2.2
DawoodHerculesLimited
DAWH
89.5 71.83 Reduce 2.09.2 13.143.89.76.8 2.2 n.a n.a1.1
FaujiFert.BinQasimLtd.
FFBL
41.4 49.33 Accumulate 4.66.06.68.96.96.2 3.12.5 2.5 10.9 13.3 15.1
FaujiFer lizerCompany
FFC
113.3 138.62
Buy
16.4 15.8 16.46.97.26.9 6.66.0 5.8 13.7 14.1 14.3
Fa maFer lizer
FATIMA
34.0 35.09 Neutral 2.94.15.011.78.46.8 2.52.1 1.85.9 5.95.9
FoodProducers

EngroFoodsLimited
EFOODS 115.6 UR
UR
3.40.3UR34.2 420.1 UR 8.87.7 UR
Oil&Gas

Oil&GasDevelopmentCo.
OGDC
256.5 302.09 Accumulate 22.5 21.1 28.911.4 12.28.9 4.13.4 2.82.8 3.24.5
PakOilfields
POL
530.3 612.57 Accumulate 50.1 45.8 59.110.6 11.69.0 3.63.6 3.39.9 8.58.7
PakistanStateOil
PSO
423.3 UR
UR
36.7 50.8 UR 11.58.3 UR 2.11.7 UR 1.3 1.2 UR
Electricity

HubPowerCo.
HUBC
52.6 72.19
Buy
7.18.87.07.56.07.5 2.01.8 2.0 11.4 15.2 17.1
KotAdduPowerCompany
KAPCO
60.5 64.00 Accumulate 6.98.48.08.87.27.5 2.32.2 2.2 11.4 12.4 12.8
FixedLineTelecommunica on

PakistanTelecommunica on PTC
30.7 29.71 Neutral 2.23.14.213.79.97.3 1.31.3 1.27.39.8
PersonalGoods

NishatMills
NML
119.3 137.54 Accumulate 10.0 16.6 18.711.97.26.4 1.10.7 0.72.9 3.44.0
Banks

AlliedBankLimited
ABL
122.3 100.03 Reduce 11.4 14.2 11.710.78.6 10.5 2.41.9 1.84.8 4.54.5
BankAlFalah
BAFL
27.9 32.0* Accumulate 3.43.53.88.38.07.3 1.31.2 1.17.2 7.25.4
HabibBankLimited
HBL
187.3 149.99 Reduce 17.0 17.1 19.111.0 10.99.8 1.91.8 1.63.6 4.34.8
MCBBankLimited
MCB
277.6 245.48 Reduce 18.8 19.7 20.914.8 14.1 13.3 2.92.7 2.43.9 4.64.7
Na onalBankofPakistan
NBP
58.2 59.99 Neutral 7.32.57.47.9 23.57.9 0.90.8 0.7 10.5 3.49.5
UnitedBankLtd
UBL
181.7 150.03 Reduce 15.6 15.8 16.511.6 11.5 11.0 2.22.0 1.94.7 4.75.0
*TPforBAFLrisestoPkR33.8/shareuponsuccessfulWaridstakesale

Stocks

Symbol

Price

TP

Stance

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

18 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance

Stocks

Sym bol

Price
18-Apr-14

1M

CYTD

1 Year
High

1 Year
Low

29069.93

6.7

8.0

33.5

56.2

15.1

29458.15

18605.55

AGTL
MTL

201.98
465.00

-5.2
-1.1

-5.9
-6.9

-0.2
3.0

-2.9
-0.9

-4.9
-3.6

325.48
519.58

197.00
433.73

INDU
PSMC

490.93
218.88

24.1
7.4

23.3
30.8

52.9
74.2

60.0
86.3

47.4
42.2

490.93
227.75

301.87
117.48

DGKC
LUCK

92.65
357.26

-1.0
5.7

1.3
16.3

28.1
52.0

31.3
105.1

8.1
19.1

96.43
369.08

67.74
170.92

EPCL
ICI
LOTCHEM
DAWH
EFERT
ENGRO
FATIMA
FFBL
FFC

16.75
384.99
7.53
89.48
70.95
213.06
34.01
41.42
113.33

12.7
22.4
9.9
9.9
24.2
13.8
8.9
-1.3
3.5

11.1
29.8
-7.0
29.7
n.a
18.6
18.9
-4.7
-2.4

27.9
118.5
15.5
74.9
n.a
53.6
39.5
6.0
8.8

46.2
167.4
6.4
74.3
n.a
54.0
51.1
10.5
2.3

24.9
52.2
2.6
59.4
n.a
34.5
19.1
-5.5
1.2

16.78
395.14
8.89
94.59
70.95
214.02
34.01
45.42
119.52

11.06
141.96
6.46
46.03
29.66
120.75
22.48
37.43
101.37

EFOODS

115.62

-0.9

2.5

17.1

-16.5

10.7

162.22

80.37

49.08

8.3

26.1

89.1

92.3

31.3

74.12

24.72

OGDC
POL
PSO

256.46
530.28
423.32

-4.8
-3.6
0.2

-10.6
1.0
23.3

7.8
19.4
56.9

25.7
14.3
125.3

-7.2
6.5
27.4

287.84
555.28
452.43

202.55
428.73
187.91

HUBC
KAPCO

52.64
60.50

-0.8
1.2

-18.7
-6.3

-12.1
-3.0

-0.5
14.0

-13.3
-2.0

73.42
68.34

52.01
53.06

PTC

30.67

-0.5

4.1

18.6

64.8

7.8

33.15

17.46

NCL
NML

46.66
119.30

-7.6
-7.0

-28.2
-13.3

-20.5
35.0

-2.1
47.7

-22.5
-6.2

68.82
140.79

43.48
79.74

ABL
AKBL
BAFL
HBL
HMB
MCB
MEBL
NBP
UBL

122.29
20.29
27.89
187.27
30.90
277.56
39.83
58.15
181.66

43.0
13.6
-2.3
15.5
28.8
7.8
5.6
7.1
27.2

45.4
47.8
-0.3
15.7
20.2
3.6
2.4
-1.2
30.4

74.4
73.4
36.0
39.3
44.7
21.6
7.2
18.9
45.3

139.6
35.5
82.5
125.7
103.3
49.1
57.7
41.6
103.0

49.5
44.9
3.1
23.6
23.3
8.6
1.1
0.2
37.1

125.89
20.29
29.07
192.11
31.50
288.06
41.24
63.08
187.07

50.01
10.76
14.94
80.00
14.61
184.66
25.20
38.62
87.69

KSE-100 Index

Absolute Perform ance (%)

3M
6M
12M

Industrial Engineering
Al-Ghazi Tractor
Millat Tractors
Autom obile and Parts
Indus Motors
Pak Suzuki Motors

Construction and Materials

DG Khan Cement
Lucky Cement
Chem icals
Engro Polymer Chemicals
ICI Pakistan Limited
Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited
Daw ood Hercules
Engro Fertilizers Ltd.
Engro Chemical
Fatima Fertilizer
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd.
Fauji Fertilizer Company
Food Producers
Engro Foods Limited
Non Life Insurance
Adamjee Insurance

AICL

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co.
Pak Oilfields
Pakistan State Oil
Electricity
Hub Pow er Co.
Kot Addu Pow er Company

Fixed Line Telecom m unication

Pakistan Telecommunication
Personal Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd.
Nishat Mills
Banks
Allied Bank Limited
Askari Bank Limited
Bank AlFalah
Habib Bank Limited
Habib Metropolitan Bank
MCB Bank Limited
Meezan Bank Limited
National Bank of Pakistan
United Bank Ltd

Source: KSE & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

18 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Economic Snapshot
End Month Data

Units

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

T-bill
3M

9.26

8.93

9.00

9.15

9.47

9.63

9.93

9.92

9.91

6M

9.16

9.01

9.20

9.35

9.68

9.88

10.02

9.98

9.95

12M

9.21

9.00

9.28

9.41

9.76

9.91

10.05

9.99

9.99

PIB 10Y

10.86

11.57

11.97

12.28

12.83

12.93

12.90

12.59

12.80

KIBOR 6M

9.39

9.08

9.15

9.29

9.55

9.52

10.13

10.14

10.15

Discount rate

9.00

9.00

9.00

9.50

9.50

10.00

10.00

10.00

10.00

Headline inflation

5.90

8.26

8.55

7.40

9.10

10.90

9.18

7.90

7.90

Core inflation

7.80

8.20

8.50

8.70

8.40

8.50

8.20

8.00

7.80

Food inflation

7.90

9.20

10.30

7.90

9.80

13.00

9.30

7.20

7.60

Export (PBS)

US$ (mn)

2,197

2,095

1,996

2,622

1,864

1,804

2,275

2,061

2,167

Import (PBS)

US$ (mn)

3,940

3,814

3,572

3,791

3,281

3,651

3,561

4,137

3,600

Trade Deficit (PBS)

US$ (mn)

(1,743)

(1,719)

(1,576)

(1,169)

(1,417)

(1,847)

(1,286)

(2,076)

(1,433)

Home Remittances

US$ (mn)

1,165

1,404

1,233

1,283

1,348

1,131

1,385

1,246

1,210

Current Account

US$ (mn)

(163)

46

(575)

(574)

(166)

(572)

285

(464)

164

Deposits

PkR (bn)

7,316

7,069

7,174

7,125

7,133

7,309

7,529

7,566

7,599

Advances

PkR (bn)

3,869

3,788

3,817

3,831

3,921

4,008

4,071

4,127

4,110

Investments

PkR (bn)

4,129

3,837

3,708

3,873

3,776

4,035

4,070

4,217

4,443

W. Avg. lending rate

11.36

11.28

11.11

11.10

11.10

11.13

11.07

n.a

n.a

W. Avg. deposit rate

5.01

4.97

4.83

4.79

4.90

4.89

5.05

n.a

n.a

Spread rate

6.35

6.31

6.28

6.31

6.20

6.24

6.02

n.a

n.a

147,221

203,596

153,329

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Inflation

External Indicators

Banking Sector

Public Finance
Tax collection

PkR (mn)

267,608

124,257

Direct taxes

PkR (mn)

128,889

30,745

44,574

86,436

50,466

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Indirect Taxes

PkR (mn)

138,719

93,512

102,647

117,160

102,863

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Reserves (RHS)

US$ (mn)

11,020

9,998

9,995

9,525

8,247

8,314

7,988

8,744

USDPkR - Interbank

PkR/USD

104.51

105.24

106.89

107.64

106.93

105.49

105.12

Currency

98.94

10,287
101.90

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

18 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Analyst Certification
We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related
to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the
specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst

Tel no.

E-mail

Coverage

Naveed Vakil
Raza Jafri, CFA
Anum Dhedhi
Asad I. Siddiqui
Bilal Alvi
Qasim Anwar
Hassan Quadri
Azher Ali Quli
Nasir Khan
Tariq Mehmood

+92 111 253 111 (692)

+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (637)
+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (647)
+92 111 253 111 (680)
+92 111 253 111 (639)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (643)

naveed.vakil@akdsecurities.net
raza.jafri@akdsecurities.net
anum.dhedhi@akdsecurities.net
asad.siddiqui@akdsecurities.net
bilal.alvi@akdsecurities.net
qasim.anwar@akdsecurities.net
hassan.quadri@akdsecurities.net
azher.quli@akdsecurities.net
nasir.khan@akdsecurities.net
tariq.mehmood@akdsecurities.net

Director - Research & Business Development

Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks
Pakistan Economy
E&Ps & OMCs
Textiles, Cements & Chemical
Technical Analysis
Research Production / Autos
Research Production
Research Production
Library Operations

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This publication/communication or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AKD Securities
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10