Modelling Urban Development with

Geographical Information Systems

and Cellular Automata
Yon Liu
0.. CRC Press
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l.iu, Yan. 1965 Oct . 29
Moddlin.g urban development ....ith systc-n1s ;, nd
cclhl:lr smorn_afa J Y:tn l. iu.
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i nd t1des bibliographical refo::c,mces a nd index.
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Contents
P reface... . .. .......... ...... . ...................... ... ... ........ ..... . ...... . ... . ... . . ... ...... x i
-r he i\uthor ... ....... .......... ........ ....... ............. ............. ........... ..... ........................ ... xiii
Chapter 1 Introduction to Urban Den;lopment Modelling.. .. ............. . .... .. ... 1
I. 1 Models a nd Modelling ................ ............. . ... .. .. .. ........ ... .. ..... ..... 2
1.1.1 TheNeediori:>!odcls..... . ...... ... . ...... ...... .... . .. ... 2
1.1.2 Cbaraccel'istic< of l-.!odels. ....... . .... ... .. . 3
1.1.3 Types of Models....... . ... ........ .. . . ..... .... .4
1.1 .4 Procedures of Model B\lild ing ........... .. .... ... ... . . ... ....... 6
I. 1.5 The Pitfalls . .. .... ......... ............. ....... ..... .. .... .... ...... .... .. ... 7
1.2 Thcoreticul Appro1ches of Urba n
Developme nl Modelling . .... ........... ...... ....... .............. ... ....... ... . .. 7
I. 2. 1 Urban Ecclogical Approuch ... .................. ...... ........... .. 9
1.2.2 Socia l Physical Approach . ... ... ....... ................. .......... . . IO
1.2.3 Neoclassic I Approach . ....... ... ..... ..... ... ....... . . . ....... . .. 11
1.2.4 Behavioural Approocb ...... .... .. ... .. ................... . ....... .. . 13
1.2.5 Systems Approach ..... ....... ...... .. ........... ............. ... .... . 14
1.3 Conlempon\ry of Urban
Developmcnl Modell ing....... . ...... . . ...... .... .... . . .. . 16
1.3. 1 Cities as Systems ...... .. . .... ............ .. . 16
1.3.2 r:uzzy Set and Fuzzy Logic .... .... ....... ...... ....... ............ l9
1.3.3 GIS and Urba n Mode ll ing ... .. ....... ...... . .. 19
1.4 Problems and Prospects ..... .. ...................... ....... ....................... 20
1.4. 1_ Theoreticcll Probleu1s ............. .. .. .. .................. .......... .. 20
1.4.2 Technical Problems . . .. ... . . ... ... . ... ....... .. ..... . .... .. .. . . . 22
1.4.3 FuturePr06pccls .. ..... ...... ......... ..... .................. .. ....... . . . 22
1.5 Conclu<io n . ........ ..... .... ...... ...... . .............. ......... ... . ..... ................ 23
Chapter 2 Cellular Automata and lls Application in Urbaot Modelling .... ....... .. 25
2.1 Cellular Automata!vtod11 ing ...... ......... ............ . ... ...... .......... ... 25
2.1. 1 Cellular Automala MO<lell jng: A Game ..................... 25
2. 1.2 A Sio>ple Cel lular Automa ta Mode!. ... ....... ... .. ........ ... 27
2.1.2.1 Fi ve Dasjc clements of
a Cellular Aulomalon .... ......................... ..... 28
2.l.2.2 Mathemalical Representation of
a Celhlla1 Automaton .. .......... ...... ..... ........ ... 29
2. J .3 The Complex Fealures of Ce11u1ur Amomala ............ 29
2.2 Cellulnr AUI.on>ala in Urban Modelling..... ...... ....... . . ..... . .. 30
2.2.1 An Urban Cellular Automata . . ... ......... .. ..... ... .. ......... .. 30
2.2.2 of Cellular Automata for Urb.HI
:Vlodclli ng ....... ......... ......... ................... .................... .. 33
2:2.2. L Simplicity in .Model Consln<:lion ..... .... .... :\4
2.2.2.2 Modelling Spati11l Dynamics 10
Support "WhaL If" Experuncnl$ ............ ..... 34
2.2.2.3 A "Natural Affinity" wit h Rn<ter OIS ........ 35
2.1.3 Early Application< of Cellular AULomala In
Urban Modelling ..................... .................................. 35
2.3 Contemporary Cellular Autornaw-l.lased Urb-111
Modelling Practices ....................................... .......................... 38
2.3 1 Space Tcssellatton: l't'Otn Regular to Irregular
Units ........... ......... .. ..... .. ............................. ..... 38
2.3. L. "I Regular Cells or S mall or
Large Re10lution ........................................ 38
2.3.1.2 Ustng Sp.'!tial UniiS... . ............ 40
2.3.2 From Binary and [0
Cell S:atcs .................................................................. 41
2.3.3 Neighbourhood Defimtions .............. .......................... 41
2.3.3. 1 "Action-al-a-Distance"
Neighbourhood .. ........................ ................ 41
2.3.3.2 NeighbouJ'hood Size ................................ ... 42
2.3.3.3 Ncighhourhood Type .................................. 43
23.3.4 Netghbourhood ............................ 44
2.3.3.5 SeMiuvity Anal)'sis .................................. .44
2.).l\ Variation m Rules ....... .... ...................... .45
2.3.4.1 Con,tratned Cellular Automoto .................. <5
2.3 .4 .2 The SLriUTH Model .......................... ....... 46
2.3.4.3 Pu1.zy Constrained Ccllulnr
A\tomula .......... ............................. . 47
2.3.4.4 Transi1ion Rules Deri ved from
Other Models .. ...................................... .... .48
2.3.4.5 Aruflctal Ncurol Network (A '1'1) Bacd
Collubr Automata Models..... .. ............. 49
2.3.4.6 Stocha>tie Cellular Autom>t> Modei.. ........ SO
2.3.5 Modelling Time ............. ... .... ........ .................... ......... 51
2.4 Conclusion ....... ......... ......... ......................... .................... ......... 51
Chapte r 3 Dc\clo1>ing a Fuzzy ConsLrai11Cd Cellular AmomaLil
Model Urban De, clopmcnt ... .. ........ ............................................ 53
3.1 t.:rt>an Development and l'uny Sets. ...................................... 53
3. 1. 1 Fuuy Repro<entauon of Geogrnphical
Boundanes .................................................................
3. 1. 2 Set Theory .......... .......... .......................... ....... 55
3. 1.2. 1 Delinitiun of Fuzzy Set.. ............................. 55
3. 1.2.2 Jl.lcrnbership Funcliou .................. ............... 56
3. 1.2.3 Fuzzy Opetation ............... , .................. ..... .. 58
3. 1.3 Urt>M De,eloprnent aH Full) Proces.<.. .............. ... 59
3.1.3.1 Defining Urban Area, ................................. -5\l
3.1.3.2 Fuzzy Set Approach in Defi ning
Urban Areas ........................ ...... ..... ....... ... ... 60
3.2 Fuzzy Logoc Conuol i u Cellular Automata- llased
Urban Modelling ............................................................. , ..... (12
3.2. I Linguiuic Varisbles and Fu7.z) Logoc ............... .. .. . 63
3.2.1.1 Longuistic Variables .................................. 63
3.2.1.2 Basic Logic Tcnns and Reasoning .......... 64
3.2.1.3 Fuzzy Logic ............................................. <>6
3.2. 2 r u>.>y Losic ControL .................................... ............ 67
3.2.3 Puzt.y Log1c Conlrol i n Cellular AutomalaBased
Urbnn Modelling .... .............................................. .. .. 69
:t3 Deve!oping t=u:ezy Constrai ned Ccl lular A\ltomala for
t.:rt>an Modell "'ll ................................................................... 70
3.3.1 10c Tcrnp.>ral Process of l:ri>an De'elopment ........ 10
3.3.2 10c Spcce or Urban De,cJopmcnt as
a Fu1y S.t ............... ....... .................... ............... ..... 13
3.3.3 The Fu'-1) TrausitiOr'l Rules and lnfeJellCing ............ 76
3.3.3.1 Prirmu y Transition Rules .......................... 7(j
3.3.3.2 Rule Firing Threshold ......................... ....... 77
3.3.3.3 Secondary Transit ion Rules ...................... 79
3.3.3.4 Rule Ca libration ................................. ....... 81
3.3.4 10c Defuuification Process ...... .................... .... . 82
3.4 ConcluSion........................................................................... H3
Chnpter .J Sydney: Urban Development and Visualis.:uio:a ........... ..................... R:i
4.1 Sydney's Urbnn Ot,olopmcnt and l'lnnning .......................... 85
4. 1.1 Histol'icol Threads of Development.... .. ......... 88
4. L. 2 Urban l)e\'elopment and Plonmng ........................ ... 90
4.1.2.1 County or Cumlx:riJnd Planning
Scheme (1948) ....... .................................. 90
4.1.2.2 S)dney Reg ton Outhne l'lan (196-S) ........... 93
-1.1.2.3 Sydn<) into its Third C'emury (1988) ........ 95
4.1 2.4 CitiC-'1 for the 21st Ccnwry (1995) .............. 97
4.1.2.5 City of Cities (2005) ................ .... ...... . .... ... 97
4.l.3 Issues to Syd11ey's llrbnnDevelopmeut ..... lOO
4.2 Data Collection and Processing ....... ...................................... 100
4.2.1 Thpographic Data .................................................. 100
4.2.2 lnn<portotion Nerwol1< ........................................... 101
4.2.3 Phy<ical L'rban Areas................... .... ................... . 102
4.2.4 Land Ex<IUdcd from Urban Oevclopmcnt.. .............. 102
4.2.5 Urban l'lmng Schemes ............................... ...... .... 103
4.3 Defining Sydney's Url)an Areas with Fuz>.y Set Theory ...... 104
4.3. 1 Urb!ln Arta Criteria for Statistical Pll rposes .......... JQ,J
4.3.2 Defini ng n Fuzty 13oundury of Sydney's 6.3 The I rn1>nct of Scale on
Urban A'""' ... ................ .......................................... 105 the Model's ............................................................... 146
4.3.3 Vrualising Utban Oe,elopmcnl 111
Space and Tune........... . ........................... .............. 107
6.3.1 Rc>uh from the 1\lodel under Different
:->erghbourbood Scoles.... ...................................... 146
4.4 Conclusion.............................. ..... .. ....................... .. ... ... .. .... 110 6.3.2 Sunulauon Accuractc:s of the Model O'-'er Ttme ... .... 149
6.3.3 '1ciehbourhootl Scale and Model Calibration .......... IS I
Chapter 5 Modelling the Urban l.lcvclopmem of Sydney:
Specificalioo, Caltbmtiun a1ld Implementation .................... Ill
5.1 Model Spc<:ificauon ............... . ........................... ...... .......... 111
5.1. 1 Cell Size nnd St ........... ... .... .................... ... .......... 111
6.4 Perspective Views on Sydney's De\elopmcntto
the Year 203 1 ....................... ......... ..................................... .. 151
6.4.1 FactotS Affucung S)dncy's Future Oc'eloptnent ..... 151
6.1. 1.1 fmprovernent in Transport3tion
lnfrnstn1..:ture ........ ............. ................ ....... 152
5. 1.2 Neighbou1 h0od ...... ... .... ...... ........ ...... l J2
5. 1.3 1'ransition H.ulcs .... .................. ... ...... ........................ 113
5. 1.3. 1 Urban .'<atural Growth Comrolled by
Primary TransiiiOt\ Rules.......... . . ......... 113
5.1.3.2 Constrained Development by
6.4.1.2 Thclmp,tcl or tire 2005
Sll'llteglc l'lnn ......... .......... .. .............. ......... 153
6.4.2 Pcr>pcel ive Views of Urban Dcvclt>pment under
Different Plannin& Ccnrrol 1-'actors ................... ...... 153
6.5 Conclusoon .... ............................. ........................................ .. 157
!'ecoodtny Rules ........ ............................... 114
5.\.3.3 Flexibil ity in Jrnplemcnwt ion ........... 119
5. 1.4 Tempon'l Dimension ........... .................... .......... l20
Chaplet? Fuwrc Rese.nrch Oi,cctions .... ... ....................................................... 159
5.2 Model ............................................................ .. 120 7.1 Local and Gloh>l Transuion Rules ........... ............................. 160
5.2.1 Model CulohrationPrincop1cs ................................... 120 7.2 Applications of ond Fuzzy Lo,ie ...................... 160
5.2.2 SinuJhtion Ac..:urocy ................ . ......... . 122 7.3 UtOOn COfbolidation and Processes ... ...... 161
5.2.2. 1 The Error Approach .................... . 122 7.4 The Sp:wal Area Unil and Its JJHerncuon with the
5.2.2.2 A Modified lirror Matrix Approach ......... 124 Neighbourhood Scale ................. .... ....................... ................ 162
5.2.2.3 KAI>i>a Cocfficrent Analysis ...................... 126 7.5 Reappliebility of the Model ....... .......................................... 162
5.3 Model Implementation in GIS.... . .............. - ........ .. ... 128
5.3.1 Cellular Autornoto ;\lodellrng and GIS ... _ ............... 128
References
........................................................................... !63
5.3.2 The MeG IS Approach .. .. .................. ....... ............... 129 I ndex ......... .... ................ ... .... ..... ..................... ....... ........................ ....................... 171
5.3.3 Graphic hHcrfacc .......... ............ ...... ... 130
5.3.4 Model CHhhrntion .............. ...................................... 131
5.4 Conclusoon ........ . . .. .............................. ......................... 132
Choptor (, Modellmg rhc Urban Dcvel<>pmcnt or Sydney:
f{esuhs nnLI Di.:>cussion ... .... .. .... ..... .......... .................. ............. . ..... 133
6.1 A Summary ofR<Sirl" I rom the Model. ... ...... ... ............... ... 133
6. 1 I The Simui3Uon aod C.alibrnhon Sequence
of the Moc1el ............................................................. 133
6.1.2 Over::tl l Rcsullc; under All Transition Rules , ........... 134
6.2 The Impact of l,\dlvltlun1 Facaors uu Sydney's UJ"ban
l)cvciOJnnent ..................... . .. , ................... .......... ................... 138
6.2.1 t:nconstrained Urban Growth................ .. ........... .. 139
6.2.2 Topo&n>l' h''"IIY Constrnined Dc'elopment ......... 142
6.2.3 Tramportatoon-Supponed De,elopment .................. 142
6.2.4 Urhan Ph111111ng and Schemes ............... ...... l-l4
6.2.5 Orher TrnsihOII Rules ............................ ................. 145
Preface
Urban <JevelopmeH and the migration of much of the populauon from (Ufal to urban
areas are signi.fk:anL global phenomena. Increasingly. moresmflll tsolaced population
cencre$ are changing into large mcLropoJitan ci1ies aL the. exp..:n:>c of prime agrjcul
wral land and the destruction of natural landscape and public open space. This has
a lot of attemion to 1 he study of u developmem undec the theme of
global environmental change. Various trban models have been btih for this purpose.
Amongst these. models based on the principles of cellular automata are developing
most rapidly.
Urban de\clopm<.:nl resembles the beht'lviour of a cellular automaton i n maoy
aspectS. The space of an urban area can be regarded as a combinalioo of a number of
cells, each c.el1takiJlg a finite set of possible states representi ng the extent of its urba n
de"eloprnent witb 1he stal e of each cell evolving in discrete time s1eps accOI'ding [ 0
some local transition rules.
[n this book. a simulation model of urban development was developed based o n
the pr inciples of the cellular autOlllala. An innovative feature of Lhe n1odel is the
incorporation of the fuzzy and fuzzy log.k apptoacb. Jnstcad uf defi11ing the
suue of cell s a binary mode of either non urban or urban, urban development
was regarded as a spatiall y and temporally continuous process. ln this process. a
cell be in a (or rmal) or f fully s tate, or it can also be a
state t hm is nm rural/natural but yet not fully urbanised, that is, it is to some extent
Based on the fuzzy set theory, the ext em to which a cell has undergone a n
urban dcvclopmc;:nl can he repre$ented hy a fuzzy membe(sh ip gl'ade. \Vit hi n
this membership grade, a cell Ctln be non-urban or ful1y lJrban with a members!Ur>
grade or 0 ot I respecdvc)y, or it can be at any stage of c0n11crting from non-urban to
urban land use, in case the membership grade js bct\veen 0 and I excluswely.
In addition to the t.se of the CQIIti nuous cell states represenre.d by the mernl>el'
ship grade, fuzzy logic <.:onstndned rules were proposed 1.0 coutrol the transili on oC
ci!IIS from one srate to another. \Vith the the transition rul es
were dcfint!-d not by deterministic or explicit malhematical formulae bUl
t'athe as "linguistic variables" representing fl certai11 kind ofprecoJdition for a deci-
sion or IJ ruocess. For insumcc, the dcvelopmcnl or an urban area is likely to be
enhanced by high levels of accessibilir)'. or constrained by an un.suirab!t topography.
The application of tbc. natural la nguage statement is closer to che acnal process of
urban development whilst it also represents the \ncertainry or various constrainlS o n
this development.
The .fuzzy constrained cellular automata 1nodel of urban development was hnple-
mcnted in the ESRl's ArcGlS environment as an exLeosion to its: spatial analysis fu nc
tions. It was .applied to the meuopolitan of Sydney> Ausualia, to simulate the spmi al
and tempora.l processes of urban development from 19'76 to 203J. A unique
in the calibt'ation of the model using the lernporal claus S<:: l of Syd!ley was presented.
modd has not been developed simply as a predictive model. Rather, il functi ons as
an analytical tool to evaluate 1 ht: impacts of \AI IOUS factors physical. SOCi(')Cconomic.
and inM.itutional-<>n urbandc\C:JormenL Throush lhc imp1eaoentation of "a1aous lr.ln
rules, 1he model genera:cs difftrt:nl of urb3n development. 1l.erefore.
the model is useful for urban plnnners to v,;hat ir' qucstjons.
There are scv...:n chapters in 1 h1S book. The first chapter provides a conlcxt of urbtm
modtlli ng and a theorelical as well as practical re\'tew of modelling techniques in
urban d eveloprntnl research. 'fhe second chBptcr introduces tbe c:elluiBr automata
approHch. Rtscnrch on urban on the cellular automata approoch
tS surveyed :1ncl rxoh!ems rui11>Cd by this appro,,ch are idcn1lfh:d. nased
on n thorough undcr$tanding of urban modelling and lhc (tpplicaljQnl\ of the celln-
l:lr au1omata in llus field. Chap1c:1 3 develops a fuzz.y cellular automata
model or urban dt\<::IOpment. Thoc include the appli:alion Of fuv.y SCI In defining
urban s.tatcs, ond 1hc idcnt.ificauon of pnruary and rules by
fuzzy Jvgic in urbau lransitions.
Chuplers 4 to 6 concern 1hc application of the cellular nutomala model 10
l:lte the process of urban d.-elopmcnt in mctrop<1li1an Sydr.ey. In Chnplcr 4, 1he
dcscnpuons or Sydney 10 rd.1hon to urban dt\ elopment and p!aoning oddresscd.
followed b)' the CQilSli'UCLion O( n geograpl\icnJ database for the of the
aut01na1n model dcwetop..:cl in CtU.'II)LCI' 3. n 1e llfbon dcvclopwem of Sydney
from I he years 1976 to 2006 i"i<ualised in A CIS. By "'i >S the Sydney dnlnhase, I he
ctllular automata model of urttnn tesled and cahbrated in ChapterS.
Through th1s resting artd cahbrauon. tbe model bused to undcrsrand S)'tlney's uJb:ln
deve1opmcnl inn cciJul.:tr env1ronment, nnd Lo cvalu::ue the impact of vnriou.s fac-
wrs on urban dcvdop1uenL These f.octors include I he ph)'sicnl constraint,
transportation and urbA!l planning 111 1elation to ''dlious arca.s plnnned for
uob:ln dc,-elopmcnt. By var)IOJ! the >ite of1h<; neighbourhood, lhe effe<:t> or differ
cnl nt1ghbourhood sc:a1cs on lhe model's OtiiC:OmC.S art. anal)scd. In arld11ion. o_pliOn!\
for the rulUrc urbou. cl evclopmcnl of Sydney under cliffr: rent planning control condi
tions jL1Lhe next tw) and a hall' decades are predicled using lhc model.
Finally, conclusions are drawn in 1he b.sl chapter on u1han mode11int; using the
cellular automata approach and the apphc:mon or 11t.e model lo simul:nc I he acwal
process ofurbnn di:,clopment. \Vnh concludjng ful\lre
tions are mapped ouc, thus brinziug che book to a closure.
The Author
Yan Liu is an a.ssishl!lL proti.:.ssor m cb.} National 1 nstiture of
l?.ducafmn. rechnologicol University. Si ngApore. SlttJ
earned hco B.Sc. in geography ond her M.Sc. in e<:OO<mic
gecgmphy from Hubei Uni,'trsily nrtl Cenlrlll China Normal
University, respectively. and her Ph.D. 1n geographical
frotn the Untversicy or Queensland. Austt,llia. Pl'ior lO hccurrt:nl
position .;he lecwred at II te hlcull.yof I ngineering a net Surveying
of !he of Soulhcro Quccn>lod. Her research areas
;,r.."'ude urban mode:lrng. g...-odemogmptJcs. and CIS in heal1h
tmd e,oa1Ue rnnnagement Q..S wel l CHS in I'C.c;C;trch.
I
{
1
Introduction to Urban
Development Modelling
Ul'l:>an deveJopmcot twd I he migrationofpopulation from rufall.o uban areas arcsig-
nilicantglob3l phenomcna. Jncrcasingl)', rnoresmaH, isolaLed pOpt . .ll<ation cemtes ar e
changing i Ho large metropolitan cities, wilh the conversion of mtlural laod to ul'ba n
use becoming quile obvious. Accord1ng to the 2005 Revist'on of World Urbamsmioll
Prospecrs reported by 1he Department of Economic a nd Social Affairs' Popu I at ion
Division of che United Nt-ttitms (Uoited 2006), in 1900, only 13% of 1he
world's pupuJmion lived in urban areas; this proportion increased l<> 29% by 1950.
and it reached '19% in 2005. rhe laces1 U.N. populadon proj ection also indicates that
lhe p.oportion of urban \viii rise to 60% by 2030, which mea1'1S that about
4.9 billion people out of a total world popuJation ofS bl 1Hon are 10 be urban
dwellers in 2030 ( Uilited Nations 2006)
T he majority of urb<n growth will occur i 1l tl1e le,sr. developed counll'ies. Although
the panerns of urban gro,vth in the developing countdcs are not of d iffer-
ence to h(1ppened in Europe and the United States a ccmury ago. the ahsoJutc
scale of this growth in tertJlS of the num_ber of cities undergoi ng mpid fOWth and
the sheer number of people involved is much greater 1han ever before. 1\ccording
to t he U.N. population projection, urban population growth in t he less developed
countries is lObe 2.2% w average. annually, f ro01 2005 to 2030. \\'hich is
higher 1han the overall annual urban frowth rfl te of 1.8% ovet fhe same period. As a
the Ul'ban population in the lcs.s developed coumrics will incrc<tSc from
2.3 billion in 2005 tO 3.9 bill iOrl (Jve the next 25 ye.ars (Unhed Nations 2006}.
lu the more developed counlrics, th most rapid urban growth took ptaceover a
century ;:.go. with the growth still contim.1 ir.g. although fl l a rnuch slowe;r nne on aver-
age than in previous decades. r-...<fuch of the present population shift in the developed
counuies invo)vc.s moveruent from lht crmce.nrated urban cemres to vast, spr:w..-li ng
rncLropoliLan regions octo small and in:ermediate-siz.ed cjties, resulting in the phys-
i:al cxp<tnSion of rhe urban land and the conglomeration of multiple cities known as
the megalopolis (Gournann 1901).
Rapid urban development happens at the expense of pl'ime agl'icuhura l
land. \vil li the des1ruction of natural landscape a1Jd public open spac-e, which has
an i ncreasing impacl on lhe glohal environmental chungc. As Vitousek (1994: 1861)
states, 'three of the global changes are increasing concenuations
of carbon dioxide in the altermions in the hiochemistry of the global
nitroge;n cycle, and an ongoing ]and-usc/land covt:r cha oge." 111c spatio-tcmporal
process of urban development and the soc.ial- environmenlal consequences of such
development deserve serious study by urban geographers, planners, a1ld policy mak-
en; becrnlse of the direct and profound impacts on hurna) beings.
-
2
Modelllrlg Urban DNclopment wllh GlS and Cellular Automata
Cities are characterised by an immense cornplc:<lly and internal heterOgtneit)'
(Bour ne 1982). Howcve1, they also displnyacct.lin of mtcn1nl in
terms of spatial patterns and temporal1ocesses (Bourne 1982. 1971). UnderManding
the sp3tinl and u:mpornl of urban dt\e!opmem been the sub ..
ject of iuvolvi11g the npplC\.\ tiOil or u'lodels.
Thjs first chapter prmides o brief d1scusson on models and model buiMing 10 the
con1cx.1 o.r urhan de .. elopmcnt. ll identifies tllld reviews major cooven
tionaUy applied in urban devclopmentmOOcll in,g. a11d the ond weaknesses
wilh each appmach Contemporary modelling pr3cdces under the self ...
orgdnising pariidigm arc Rlso reviewed, which arc followed by discusstons on the
problems and pro;pccts of urban de.elopmeno modelling.
1.1 MODELS AND MODELLING
ln tbe Dictionary, a model IS define as "tl a collec1ion of Sin
data, or an analogy used Lo help vlsttalis..: of Len 111 a sifllJll ifid way son.teth tng
that d1rcccly observed (as an atom)," or a theoretic-al projection 1n det:ul
of a possoble sysoem of human rclaoionships" 1964: 1451). Ln ancther diC
Iionary, the Cotlrns English Diaior.t1ry. a similar definition is given. which SJ)'S that
a model a si tnplificd or dtScl'iption Q( a S)'\tem or complex entit ).
especially one designed to fru:olitate tlculolions predicoions" (Makins 199S.
1003). Thc.e deflootion; show lhato model on general "a Simplified rcprescnlatioo
of rt.ality. MOOell ing, is the j}I'OCt.: SS or behnviour of producing l!lOdcls. rt
also includes the oct or art of those "ho produce models.
In gcngn1phy, the terms model and modtlli11g were gh c:n very hroad nterpreta
tions in 1he 1960s. ru employed in Modtls iu Gtogmplly (Chorley and Haggeu 1967),
a model could be a theory. a lnw, a a slructu.red idea .. 11 rote. a relation,
tln equAtion Ol' a of equat ions. a synthcsi& of da1a, a W(lrd. a map, a gruph, or
some l)fN:' of computer or laboralOt')' hardware arranged for experin'lental purposes.
'fhis defi nit1on of a model was n,lrrmved by lO ''any
lhnt generates output from intJuts" (l laincsYouog and Pctch 1986; 145), cw in oth{lC
... ony de\-1CC: ot whith gener.ttes a pcedictton'" (HnmesYoung and
1986: 144). Accord1ng lO this definition, models arc devices or con ..
s:1 ucted on tbe ba(is of a theor)' 1hat eRn new mfomH\ltoo ro test the ocloquac)'
of ihe tloeory embedded in cheno Haine<-Yoong on<! 1\:tch (191.l6) "-'elude models from
theories. laws. Ol' hypo1hc.scs. !lt"'d they view modelling us "an octlvity thal t nnhles the-
ncs to be examined cnucally" (HainesYOUnll 1989: 22- 23). Howc,cr, in the area of
luunan gtography. I he of models \1,. 35 extended tx:yond the hypothetical dedUCll\'e
"iew of science. \\ohich was "not J'IOSitivisl uud simply bc.caus\}
h is (often) a mathemnucal a1>proach" (WIsoo 1989: 64).
1.1 .1 THE N0 roR Momts
' I he idea of using models jn scientifi c research is by no new. Thts iden comes
from the way people react wath the re."'l in '""'hich they Ji\e. Praclically, all
systems In the world arc excccdmgl). c:omplex.. these systems arc
lnlr-oduclion to Urban De-\,Ciopment Modelling
3
consrantJy explored by the UbC of simplified of symbols, t' ules. and
(Apostol 1961; Mcad0\\5 1957). With the use of models, the complc'>ystenu of real-
ity can be simpl ified so t11aL lhey can be understood a nd rnonaged.
11e appl.icalion of models in sciemific 1S in many (t:o,pects. In
asrlcct, 1t ts acccp1ed that are <II fterent from they ploy
nn Important role 10 the devclopme11t nf lheorics. Modt:JS nut only serve a frame-
. \\Of'k Cor to be in a prec1sc. tanguagC. they aiso crlabfe dleOrics
or hypotheses embedded in them to be examined. 7 he of mudc:lling
IO the developmco1 of IJlCOf)' IS extJemely subtJe and i tt\'OI\cs conMam alternation
between tnductt\c and deduCti\C rcaSOntng. lt1s even argued th.a11hc; extent Qflhco-
rctical dcvclop1nem in :t field panially eqtuvalem lO the ext em to which it .mtploys
nbstracl models foranal)sis prediction (Kilbridgc. O'Biod,aod 1970).
a1e olso 1n u practical c:ontc:x1 , esJ)ec ially whco deollng with
s<.-.caJ S)':o. lcms that arc often of concern to Ul'ban analysls f1nd planners. Unl ike labo-
scaentists. urtun anal):tts and planners can seldom manjpul:1te the objecls of
1he1 r study to li nd tlte hest arr.:mgell)ent or to <.l iscover naru ral propel'lies or Jaws.
n.e scalc!t of cost and time are usually 100 large to a How for exprrimcrt at ion. and
conuolled e.'\pcrimenrauon ""ilh the social elements as rarely a possibility, ln. thtc;
case, through the conS II uction of models. rescar<.:hers can usc them 10 rep1'csent
structure or fcncuon of the rtal S)'Sitm and to explam. or the
bch<wtour of the: systen'l, They can also use tl'lodels to all artifi cial c:n .. in)rl-
rncnt for For the.se reasons, models ha"c been wtdel)' app1ied in
urban pllwnmg, resources nnd prediction, dS wt:ll os in decision
nw king prac.l
1: 1.2 C>tARA(.I'fRoSTICS or M ODElS
As nuxtels are iampJified structures of rc.1lity that prcsenl sup
1
')()scdly sianfficant
fcntu res or relat iouships in a generalised form, lhey cl o not intlude oil the associate(l
oc measurements of the systems lhcy rnOOel. Thus. the rnost fundamc n-
tnl te.aturc of rnodel.s that rhc1r con\trucuon has invoJ,ed n h1ghly stlectr\-c am
111de w information. \Vith lhis attitude. not only t he uO'i'Sc but alsO
mporuuu signal.;. of the system ha\e. of1co been eliminated. enabling 1he fundamen-
tnl. retc ... full, Ot' interesting aspects of the re.a.l system to apflC-nr ln some generalised
!'?"" (Hajigell nnd Chofley 1967). Therefore, models can be thought of as selective
p1c:tures of lht real. world and "only hy being unfailhful tnsomeaspe:cls can
a onodel l'eprescnl irs original" (lllack 1962: 220).
1bc selecrwe feature of models also implies that mOdels the
in some they are slructured '3J!P.'OJEimMions or reality. A goo-..1 roodel
represents the rtnl world in a simplifi c.d )Ct v.al Wand 'f' he model mu<: t
be smplc: enough in order for one 10 eastly undcrs1and and male decrsions wing iL.
be a<.lequotc to contain nil lhc intponanl clcmcuts of the real\\<-orJd system,
and be valtd all the elements nu'delled must be conecdy i mcrrclaLed
accord inc to rhcirconnecttons or structures.
Another tetuure of suggestive mtlUrt. iu 1hat
3
successful
model con1ains suggesuons of ils own c.ltcnSit'lni and (Hesse 1953).
10
Modelling \.hbom Uevetopment '' ith GIS and Cellular Automata
.
1
. odioining areas. As the city grc\v and chungcd. some new d i'llllcts became
muJup c 'J
11
ractivc lhan others. For cxamplet heavy mdustry was to c111ege to two
more a 1 1 b
e outl ying weas as the mncr caty become 1ncreas1ng y congest<:(. new usJ
r
d
td<:tS -were ge11eratcd to <crvc populauon!l; some d1stancc nway rom extstmg

' and euning 1owns on the periphery mcor-pOrated mco the spre.whng
cenu'-'s. TI I I . ' I "
oi 1hc growing meuopohtan centres. 1e rnulup e nuc ea mvue was con
ecologY
1
1 rd -- "
. d
3
.; a further mo'c a .. vay frvrn the masst\'C t;c:nera asatton anc tQ\\a
1995: 132). Howcv(:.r, II did J)Ot suggest UR)' unirorm of land us.c
( In t his respt'.ct , i t would be appropdmc tu regard and Ullman s
among f h 1 d
' od
1
as A guide to thinking ab<'ut the o c1Ucs rar er 11011 as a ngt gen-
m c
rsation nbotll urb3n forrn.
<r:J
1
uhough ciR>SICal modch of u!ban e<-olog) prc..:ntcd the gcnerol rule> of urban
and structure, these: models \vc:.re overly slmplistic (Flanagan Thus.
g .
1
n ecologlMs tried to refine the methodo!Ot&Y to approach the C\HUplextty of the
urb. t;nvironme nt. \Vith thi'i in mind, Shcvl<y and \Villwms ( 1949) dcvcl-
urban . I . " h. I f I ' t d I
d a
1
echniquc called "soc1ol area ana y.sts, "' . 1c 1 \Vas un1e1 Onna se 'Y
ope k . and Dell (1955). In mutlivonate st:Jtlshcal a notyus was u:::.ed
SbeidV Ytif) three fundamental fc.awre.s to in various areas of 1hc ctty. separlne
to en ' 'I d h
O
ne onothcr. These "ere econonuc ,ami y an et me
from , . b . . d
ficnuon ... nuougb the of t.hese ,cature..o., the ur an area was structure
ciOSSl . . h . . . ' .d I )
d" soctal TJus tee mque gcunev WI e appen nmvng rescarc l
as .'
5
the 1960s. \Vj Th 1hc nSf-i<:;tnncc of comJmtor technology and The periodical!)'
' . .I J . . I
:J,.'ru LBbl e dntn from each census. factor a_na ly!i iS I dcve opec os a
l 1-lo\\C\'Cr, in the flood of the fttctonal eco!og)r ol d1ffcrent towns a.nd ClUes, tJ1e
100
content of thiS 1>proa<h became steadily d1luted" (llaell and Shon
the<JCv . I ' I
89
. 178). Whereas the o-.:rly s1mplistic model$ ol classt:al ur.,.n ceo ogy ,., m
19
d cnbc much regarding existing patterns. 1he new 111ethod of fnctor tina lysis was
tO dcscrlbmg ntuch bm little, Thus, a t\er one cl ccnclc of O\'erindul
seeu ....
i
1
ucre.<t in th is approach 11cgan to fade by the early J970s.
genvc,
1.2.2 SOCIAL PHYSICAL A PPROACH
The soca:al rh)'-sica1 appro..'lCh was based on the concept of bumnn mtcntction in
This ' tpJ>roacb was fir::.t de,cloped as a d1rect analog)' to ph)'Sacs. That 'i,
space. . . . .
.
5
Ncwl("lfls Lau: ofGrmltatitm as an analogue for socud between
1t use , . .
1
h
laces. (I 1-\I'Oposed thm the nh'lVcment of hu1110n ncla vues 1 ali c unges m rest
P _,..and employment bctwccu places were directly prop<>ruona l t> t he mass oflhc
. . 1 (.
.
1
y at the Of"J""in .and de:slin1.1tion and uwcrsdy Jlaoporuonal lO 11e cost 10 terms
3.Ctl\' I .:-
r diStance or ume) scparnung them. The nlodel dceloped from thO> ana_logy wM
0
:er.-ed to ru the gravity model. which was wad ely app\jed m of mgrauons,
re:tlemcnt network, ai'Id the inrrnurban St(Ucture 111 the 1960s. A lot of urban OHxkls
se de' the parndigm of this social physical apprm-.ch \vcrc developct.l hy planners 10
uo n.cction with parucular sttldk). of individual cilics or mcLTOpolitan Ol'eas, which
coo . . I b.l ..
ften had d1rcct ope.rauona capa 1 JUes. .
0
In
0
typical gravily model, fac1ors such as ba\ac en:p)oymem.
arUI populauon were distributed usmg parucu1ar alloc:auun
ture,
Introduction to L.cbJ.n Oevelopmem Modelling
11
func.ri ons \O,.'Cre fQn nulated b:lsed on acccssibilit) analysis. The gravity
models had an obvious aptiludc for pred iction. A weiJ.known unci well-docume utecl
tnodcl using this apponeh was the one developed by [he Chien go Area Transponl:lt
1
o
11
Siudy (CATS) for forecasting laod in C.:hicgo City up tu the 1980s (Hmbury
and Sharkey 1961).
Following the ex1ens1'-C applications of che grav1ty 1 n l.tb:ln spatil llntcr-
uCiion studres, Wilson (1970) de,eloped rhe social p h)sicnl approocb by introduc
ing the second lnw ol' therrnodynarmcs-thc maximum cmropy taw- into
nppronch. Based on the principles oflhc maximum emropy low. Wil son forJH\II fltcd
s patial interacti onll"lodel. lo this mOdel. the movements of
people and goods in cities \I. ere trea1ed in lite manner thHI purticlcs in gases ''"'ere.
1rca:cd in statistic:JI mcc::b,.uUcs using :rand canonical enstmbles and diStin8Ut$h-
ing them by ongm and destination as "types a:td by ongm-d.estination pairs us
.. >lnte.s' (Wi lson 1984: 205). This is a mncro-s.:ale or agareaative approach, the
succcs:, of which bt:1.m the ease or using u through aggrcgming the neoclasslcnl
lllOdcls o f consumel's nncl p roducers (Robinson 1998).
Although the socinl physical apJWMCh wns applied widely ;,. urbao planning
models, I he lintitalions of 1his approach arc \e.ry clear. The fundamental limitalion
s 1ha:1 u. Jails to make an. 1hat
leGd< to 1nd1vtduals a panocu13r JOurney 10 de<elopt:d under
chis approach wen: aggregates; they gi'Oup behfLvi our rat ht:r than indi\'iduol
bchsviour, and lhe) the ability 10 deal wilh imporlllnt but non4quantiloti\'e
fac tors. Jn addition, !"IS the models wtre on analogue assumptions to 1heorics
1
in 1he lheocucal base of this :lJ>JU'nach wils , .e,y As BaHy (1982).
ara,ued. modellers \\UC too concerned with techniea 1 issues rather than tbc1r lhCo
rct1cal foundations and policy implicauons
1.2.J NEOClASSICAL APPROACH
The cCoiH)Illi c c quilibl'iu111 or neoclassical approach was r ooted in lhe tradition of
econom1c theories.. TI'l c von Thtinen model or agncuJtuml locatiOn can be rega1"ded
fhe earhesr model dc\'clored under thiS approach. Early on 1hls approach
aho 1nc:luded thOS< of Weber(J909), (1943), and Jsaro (1956).
The neoclassical ppr<>ach was built on the belief that the process of urban devei-
OJ111\Cnt nn economic .. being d riven by market rnechn
unci the 11arurn l forces of com1>Cli tion nmong economic nctivjties and
grou1>::. in a n urban nrcu. According 10 the economic theory of equilibrium, the
!lliOC:aLion of urb.ln land to various users in both quantitative a nd Jocatio!lal
;_, controlled by supply-and-demand relauonslups obeying the general rule of least
cost'J:and benclils. or the uuliry maxirnisa1ion rult in an equilibrium sys ..
fCRl , Under severe limitina a typit:al model of urban ccooo:nics shows
urbnn SII' Ucture as lhe reflection of spanal of tra1tspor1 costs and urb:Jn 1o ltd
re nt The 1nighl be a homogeneous city
th.c concemrau on of pnxhJctJon of a cumpositc consumption good; housii\g ...
relating only 10 plot size, Jocalion, and enernatitie.(; and the ignorance of
public ector policies. fiamples of th<Se models include Wingos {1961) model of
Modelling Urb.m De-velopment with CIS and Cdlular Automata
For a predictie model, pn:docuons nboutlbc real world can be made directly from
the model. For a descriptive rnodcl, it can reveal much nbout the structur-e or the
rtal-v.<...rld system. Therefore, models pro,' ide concrete evidence: ot the v.11y in whlch
"everythi ng affects e<ery<h mi elle" (Lowry 1965: 159). II is becau.<e of this sug-
l(tstivc feature that models nrc "idely applied in scientific tc.sctm;h, especially in
understaml111g social syste1n<:,
As models .ae generated fo m n.:alil y re presenting che fundamental featu.es
of that realily. they should be 10 the real wol'ld (Cho ley 1964). This
implies 1hat a modcJ gcuer01ed from one system should be apphcttb!e IO o1her sys-
with similar In fac.t, many model builders ha\c the reapplica-
bllity Qf models 10 judge the .alue of 1he models in gcogrnphical tesearch (Haggen
and Cbotley 1967).
1 .1.3 TYPES OF M OOCLS
Ml'ldcl:s cun ))e. classifi ed in various ..._nys. ln a manner, they can be cat
4
cgorised jmo three types "c:cordi ng to 1he.r degcee of and
(Figure 1. 1). The simples1 level o f occus wheu 1enluy lS altered only tn
terms of scale. Scate cnn be fun hcr d i as icon1c modeJs if they
are mi niaturc co-pies of rca lny, :.uch as thuse employed by arch heels for the bui1dings
!hey design, and analogue mWds if the miniaturisalion is. ACCOmpanied by lhc
ran<formalion of cenain such as the mapS tJc;ed by geographers.
.A.I a g.reater le'cl of abstruclion arc conceptual models 1n which the focus is upOn
between dfftrcnt component!. of real at)'. 1bc: ex pre ion of lhas 1ypc or
model can be 10 diagramm:auc form or in "-erbal langu3gc. 11\..: \'On Thurten model
of agncullural locauon is on example of <his type ('<ln Th!lnen IK26). Based on an
ceo no melric a nalysis of the C:,latcr. n Mecklcnbo(g, Gcrulany. vo" ThUncn mocklled
1hc lnnd-use patterns resulong fron 1 he mHJ< imisnlu)n of rcnl nt ever y sile. His model
wM inbct't:ully descr i pl i ,o ( llcnshal l 1967). Ho\vever, the frorncwork of th1s model
was used by Ja<et writers. nutohl y Hoover (1936). L6sch ( 194)), and Dunn ( 1954), "'
a basis for normative models ( I L tnshall 1967).
-
---C Partial
\iodcl.i 1--- Cor.<;rptu.t.l
(Dingran'MICill or ...-e(bal) --
L-- Mithcnmtu:al


rJGUR 1.1 l)pes of mod<l> (1\ddp<ed from Thomas. R. W, and R. I .. Modelli;:g
;, ftOgrophy .o Ranx.s & Books. New knc), 1980. \V11h
pcnnissiGn.)
llltroduction to Urban Dcv< .. lopment Modellil'lg
s
Models at the highcsllt,el of absttactjon arc m.tthunntical models; these an: the
most \\'idel) used and nre often rhe major concern 1 n a.caentitic researc-h. Hov.re,er
models in rhis caregory can be further drvided into different subd3SSCS. rable 1, J
suu1o1arises some the med frc:<1ucndy in urbJn modell ing (Robinson
1998; Bauy 19?6; KJibrldgc. O'!llo<:k. and Tcpl i1z 1970;

11nd Chorley 1957)
The cellula amorumn 1nodel of urban dcveloplltclll thfll h; central to this hook is n
sin ulation on lJ1c principles of nonl inear systems and Lhe Cltaos nu;ory.
TIJemodel stmula!cs ofuban de\'clopment ins pnceand Lime, which can be
used to lest wluu 1f' scenarios on uJban de\eloptnenl. 11 filS iii Lhe caegory cf a
rnodcl a general model in regard to til( tssues being mod--
cUed. Jr tS both and nom1aJ1\e in Mture and tS d)'ll31ntc 0\et lime. Through
:he process of model samublion, the OU1C<lJTJeS of the model ore genemed in stages.
TABLE 1.1
Classifications of Models
Classifi <alion criteria
1 heoreliCil.l bast'
( nK<Sc:Js
SCJI:-st<kltl..-e issues
beiag cOOc:Ued
or
nq,mt.l i\'e ft.31lll1eS

lhe ..,-ay models
:kal w.ilh time
prcdktivc
n.:nurc cf

1'""4u""

JYpc o( n1udd s
1 tW:Ot')' b,IJCd
IIK'dels
Thcu)lackn
mo&::s
l";uhal
modeh
Oencr>l
mode It
lk:l\:fl(JH'/Q
mndtti-
Normuhc
mod<t\
.. ,
..-..
O)m,.e
mod< I$
Dc:tcrmi.nittic
models
SttlCt'Miie
ut>tlel.\
An i i)1.C
""""''
Sim..t.oon
-
uf cdler ia
are deri'oltd di r.:ll y (rumal.heory as a
of
1bt real "'Odd phtnorr.enJ '"'akttact!d s,ymbohc
ue rdllr.ed u.ntctuNI:y iu a thu 10
cte3le oew t.Wory
v.arhcr.!y a rwt of rhc sy$-:em tr.(l(le:lfd
a of t.'tc tcotllly
\1o<,k:;ls atun:pung tO dtal with tv.o OJ 1110: $0bsystcnt.ot
aftl:e teodity betng mokiJc:d.
Vescrip1ive deal whh sorne stylistic desc-iptiOu
of real icy,
,.:OrJ-:natJVe models dral ""ich whal nu,thl bee>:pcctb:l
., occ.ur undu conditiOn._
ell the equ:thbriurn
feonura
\\trocls i'OOC"tntt'aa'IIJ (II\ rnxC$SQ and (mction.;s
thtocgb ti::n::.
ModeL$ a.re based on the notion or c'l:ac
is produced by nttural and laws ..
are a!s11 c:;allt:d pn>IMIJIIhtc modds, which 1.1\vohe
the esc. of ptoblll>illues, nnd they produce a'-'llge o(
possible ovteomes nH l.cr thao a single
s.olmion r-roccdutt-' t\l'e du-ect and 00 not
ln\Jhe a."'y f<3tm of1t1-ahoo.
Solubor.s m these modc!s a &:Dd.a)) y
.. _..
6
Mode-lling Development \Vith C I S and Cellular Avtou1.a.ta
E.tcpl for lhe fortgoong classolicataons. mathematical model' con also be classi
fic:d according to tbcit the techniques in use, or the lhcorie 01' hnxnheses
underpinning them. A rc::"iew of con\cntional models of urb:ln development based
011 their Utlderlying theoretical nppt'Onchcs is presented in Scct10n 1.2.
1.1.4 PROCEDURtS OF MODE! B!JII.DI'IG
Although ,odels vary significar)ll)' from one ty pe to another. lllc.y shure common
procedu res in the process of buildin" them. Figure 1.2 shows the ... orioas stages of
a m(ldelling has been v.cll accepted by many model buoldos (Caldwell
and Ran\ 1999).
According to the flo\\ chan. the hrst of rnodcl cnnnrucuon 1s to be clear
about the objc<:ti'es and become familiar ""h the problem thlll necds 10 be sohcd
in tbe reJ1 world. lben. b3.scd on 1he undcrsranding of lhe real-world and Lhc
objecuvcs, lhe model builder con btg1n setting tP a modd for the _stage. Tit is
includes selecting a n appropl"it'ltC theocetical base a nd des1gnng H 1ogca1 frame-
work to the objectives. ln the: n.hsence of a wdlcSio.bl istu;d 1heory. the
b\Jilder needs to ma.k.c al)swmptions or hypotheses thnl serve as 1he model's
lhtoreti.cHI Jour'ldation. concerning the selecth'e feannes 10 he rnoc.lt;lled or
nc::alect cd also need LObe made nt tin) s.rage.
The third stage is to rormuiMe the model in a n'lalltcmatical h:mgoage .. This is
1hc critical stage and oflen the mew. d1fficult. At aOOut the
n!al-\\ortd si1uation needs ro be abqraacd and rranslrned 1nlo equauons. or 01her
rnnthtmatical statements. \V11h lllll fotmulation, the fourth SIJ.gc i) to ur.plemcntlhe
model in a computer progr.unme and 10 tit o.L9.!!1tmte the model This
tn.sk two of tran,forrnations: {a) to give c.letininon to
lhC v.triabtes tsed in the model, nnd (b) to pcovide nurnel'ical for the model's
p{l ramete rs. For some kinds of fnO<.Iels, these voriables or can be verbal
1. Specify lhc:
probh'!n\
s. Calillf"MC" tht
>&. lmpkmtr.l the mocJel rn
a cornputtr prov.ent
riGURE 1. 2 A ftO"A ch3n 1hc vu1 ious stages o: a model! ina pf'Ol.-css. (Adapied fror:t
Caldwdl. J. aod Ram, Y. M., dr.d case Jtl4dits. 1rd .
KliJ\I.cr Academic. l)ordrecht, 1999. Witb
Jntroducton 10 Urbl'n l)evelopment Modelling
7
or fuzzy va.lue..li:. Once I he vuaables and paramelcb arc provided. the model can be
codt4 in a compuler and run.
At this stage. althouh the model has been established and o<neomcs can be
uchte\ed by nmnmg 1he model, a question remains about the. fi nal product: docs
it r<:aUy work"! Or, how good ate tl:le model's omcomcs com pared 10 teahty? So,
the task in I he riflh is to test the model's This i ncludes testing 1 he
of to see if it rl!U1)0nably when changes arc
Jmide to some of d1e contJi tions. aud evaluating whether or to wha1 ex lent the model
rcsernbJes the realworld If one fccJs thm the l'nodel can be jrnpro\'cd in any
aspect, then_ one needs co go to stage one and complete the modclHng process
agarn. In th.1s respea, modelling can be. reg-arrled Ri: an icerarive process \lr'here one
ude model and fly refines it unul it is good enough 10 sohe
the orig,in31 prob!ern In ndduion, as the real world is constantly changing, models
that once "-ere accepcable may no longer be adequace or "al1d. Therefore. continual
the models is rcquored (Dickey and Waus 1?78). -
1.1.5 THE P ITFAllS
Although there is lill ie doubling the value of ng n'lodels, when deal ing
w1th conplex the eharacleJiSiics of 1he models in Section 1.1.2
>mply thai there re mony dangers Lo wb:cb model builders may fall prey ( Hggeu
and Clwrlcy 1967: 26). A' models are simplified abslracuons of reality. they lea\-c
pansofrealilybch1nd. llus 1stx)(h a Strenglh and a Thesuength
m I he clarity or che and lhc. manipulati\-e nature of che wt.akness
bes in a ceria in degree of in\aJidily. Also. umphficmion may lead to lhe
mk of""throwing the baby out with the bath "a1er" ( lloggeu and Chorley 1967: 26).
T"he StJgge'\11\'e nnture of models ntighllead to the improper usc of prediction. s1ruc4
turing l(} sr,ul'ic>us corrclalions, a nd the approxm1a1ion to unreality. Only
or lhc models carefully bone in,
1151ng models a1'C rcncrnbcl'cd can one \ISe models ns on cCfccthc tool fo solving
)cienli(ic p-roblems.
1.2 THEORETICAL APPROACHES OF URBAN
DEVELOPMENT MODELLI'IG
The u--c of m<\dtls in urban tcsc:.urch can be da1c:d back to 'on llmnens classical
model of agricuhurnllocation (von Thi.inen 1826). rn hi'> fan1ous book., Der /solieru
Staat, published m 1826. von Thtinen considued che l'tla tionship of (h1ee t'nctos:
the d istance of 1he farmers from lhc market, the prices rccci,ed by the farmers for
thejr goods, und the l:lnd rent. Bused on an econome triC unnlysjs or the estates i n
Mecklenburg in nonh Ocrnuny. where VO!l Thilnen numed H.ll' 4 0 years. from t St 0
u111il his death 111 l8SO, he hypot11esited that the intenqlty of land use was inversely
l)rOporLional to the tranSilOI'lation cost or dis1ance from lhc nm1kel. [nan "isolated
Rate" with only one ccn11111 dty as the soJe market and a un1fa-m plain surrounding
the cny,lhs generates n concenlnc land-use panern with the least mtensive land use
located the away from >he cityccntn: (Hensball t96n
8
ft..\odelling Urban Developmenl W1lh GIS and Ctllul.lr Automata
Many models o f urban development are rclot.:d to von fhilnc n's model. F'or
instance, Weber 's (1909} ladusl,.lal Locat1'orr could be reg(l r<.lt:c l M the first niodel
of urba" grow lit. Later on. Chrilt IJer (1933) developed his Ccmmt Place Theory to
model urb:ln gro"' th tn B rcgiona1 contcxl. With regard to lite interna1 urban
struure, Bu13css' (1925) ConNntric Z""" Model, lloyt's (1939) SurorMod<i, and
Harri< and Ullman>' (1945) M<tltipte Nuclei are three cla.<.<ocal models of
urba n growth and urban lnnd usc pallerns 1967, 1965). These models
v.rere b ased on tJ e undcrsumdmg of trban dcvelopmenl from t he centra1 business
d istrict (C' BD) o uLwards. However, they are static, wiLh liule or no ..,;giu'd for t.hc
l dynamic noture of urban dc\clupment. l\1oreover. IJle nlodels were on assump
th:u were far from ptactlc:al, 1hey v.'efe by no mc.ans operational
The n>Mt o<e (>(models in urban geography was durin& I he perind of
thequrmtitatl\C rewJiurion in geography. \\-htch m the late t9.50s and continued
, till rhe late 1960s (Bany L981) Tt 1is devclopr'llent Cflltle almost e;<C;hJ5i,cly frorn North
Ameri<:a os atesult of borh the prue1ical need nnd tcclmical support of computer
cations. In prm.aice. the iucrcash'lg car O\VncrShll) during the L940s and early 1950s
led to tht growi ug realisacion thai cities with 1hei1 traditional physical rorms couM
simply n cope with the "new mobility" (Batty 1976. 6). This ltd to the formation of
transptation tnndcls in the laic 1950s. The de\clopment of digital computing pro-
"tided u of working with complex mathemaucal models. Durini 1h1s period. a
di-verse array of s1yles, lc<:hni<IUCs. and appl ical ions of urban models were developed.
The subjcctR o f these models included land use, f*OI)Uintion. a nd urban
economic tLCtiv1ttes. and were bujll implcmemcd using broad styles ('If
of linear a naly)iS, mathcmo1ital programming, and simulation (KUbridge. O'Biock,
and Tcplill 1970). These model< were regarded by planners as providing arulkial
laboratorieS ICM- experiments wi1h urban suuctures (Dyckman 1963).
However, as lhe o f thc.se "!:"!_'!._n the mod:lling techni9_u:s
ckllhel'" thfl n lheir theoretical they wele Serio\.ISiy cri1iciscd
re.scarchcrs, chus i'csull.ing in .111 Q\>viouS !>hift of hllere.sts in the late l970s ..'from
usmg mathcnatical 10 9u:Jiitative a nalyse-; in urban l'esearch. This shift .was
mainuincd ull the late J98<h v.hen s.tudy on comt>ltx and open $}Stems ptovrded
altcmaU\"C wttys to understand c;ities m cvofuuonary and complc't (Allen
1997). 1lte dc,clopment of lite geogmplucal information system (GIS) and the inte-
gration of n ( ii S with llrb3n modelling ha'e also rn.cil itated urban modell ing Vtilh
rich clatn sources and new tcch ni' l"' es. These new developments h:wc pushed lhe
eOOrt s of u1 ban developmcru modcHing hHo a new era.
The reS-t of 1his secuon reviews various urh:ln modelling approaches und practices
10
the httra1ure. Howe\er. IllS not tJ'e intcn1ioo of the author 10 eo,cr the vast \Ol
ume ()[ v.ork. underlaken in urba.n modelling as an effonts be)ond the scope of
this book. Instead, the thcorehca1 approaches underpanning lhcse modelling efforts
arc and an outline of the key o f urban modelling is produced.
It should be noted lhal althoug h there a re obvious dif(ere nces bel ween the vadous
a
1
,
1
,roi'l chc:.s d1scussed 11'1 the ll>l lowing text, lh<y shore some simihuitics. For exam-
ple. all 3pproachcs sought to ex am1ne the patterns Jlld proces.ses of urb,ul
w.cnt. and 1hey aU regardtd urb.1n I he outcome: of I he combination
of human chocces and and the wtder social processes th:u pi need constraints
Introduction to Urban Develop.men1 A-\Odclling
9
upon bumHn aerjons (Ht1ll 1998). It is the rc.IJ.ti\'C importa nce of 1he choices and con-
suainls that these emphasise, a nd the ways in which <.:ach is believed to
(lperate, lhat distingul!'h I he following ai)Jli'C'laches.
1.2.1 UR&\N EcotOGICAt AmtOACH
Th1 . ., approach i!; based on the beliefrhnt humnn behaviour is determined by ecolog
1

cal principles. such b;) co,npetltion, selection. nnd clorninance. As in plu Ill
ecology, the most powerful human group would obtain 1he 1nost ,1dvantaecous I)Osi-
ti\m in a given urb:tn environmenL, for example. 1he besl J'esit.lcntlal Joc;tion. '"rhis
approach can be traced back to the work of the Chicago School of Human Ecology
m the 1920s. and the most notable models of this approach v.ere Bu13ess's (1925)
conc:entnc zone mndcl, HO)'l'S (1939) model, and and Ullmans (1945)
mulhple nudel model.
Burgess's model or urbo.in growth was based on the tlOtiou ltL'It various clernc rns
of a heterogeneous and cconomlcally complex Ul'b:m sociely uctivcly compete for
favOUI'able locat ions wilhin the city. The competition aL 1he urt>:m centre
9
succc-S)h"C outward t'Xp..u1!1-ion of urban land. forming a ('If concentric zones
that encircle the centre (Caner 1995).
Although model described un ideal pauem of urban gro"1h, il d td 1101
take into u<:count vnrious urban cn\ironmcntal factors !'lucl' oc. topOgraphy or
p('II' IO.tion net ...vorks thai C(tn cause d isturbances in the ideal pnucm. This model was
nn O' 'ersimplificatiou ot' reali1y and enCOUI'O.ged the postulaLion of othet of
urban structure nnd grQ\,th
S.s.sed on the sludics of changes: of residential panetns of 142 cities for the )"C4J'S
1910, 1915, and 1936, lloy1 (19391 odvanccd a sector model tn which he idenufied
1hat hornogeneous aren5 CJfresidcn-=:c tended 10 grow outward from the centre (Oward
1hc periphery in wcdgcshaped sectors. In his sector model. in ndclitioo lo the
o n u-ansponmion romes whCI'e Ul' bon 8''owth wns oflcn focused on, Hoyt
a)!)O considered 1he efrccts of topographic variations and Lhe ndjacem and ne.rnby
land use on urban dc,clvpmcnL Althou&h limited by the lack of lheorelical c<ploru-
uon. Hoyt suggested lhlt h1gh-dass residential areas rnig.tu be t'l;pcctcd to expand
along l m'I!S of tra\'e) tn lhedrtction o(an existing nucleus
Hi&h-rent areas te nded s pread along hish<r grou nd or along v.atcrfrontS (if those
arcus were notal rclldy occupied by manufac1uring ind u.strics) ond \1/e(e also li kc::ly 1o
gtow 1oward the homes or the community lenders. The considentk
111
of the various
fBctors i 11 t he physicilf J')3Ue rnmg of urba n la nd use suggested rt problem for Lhe cal'ly
ceologim' hope fO< de' ciO(liog a general model of urban land use. Suoh a
mndcl was proven 10 be more dtfticuh to achtcve by ffarris and Cllrnan (1945).
According nnd Ullman (194'), lhe patterns of urban gro"1h and change
still followed the gener.ilecological prliiciples identified by Burgess. For example,
some uctivities alwoy) lend to be located in I he vicinity of each othe1, nndothers repel
each other, whereas some cannot aftbrd the high re nts denumdcd for the best sites.
However, this growth noL centred around one .single cenrral business distnct bUl
on certain gro\,ing ('If "nuclei." These: nuclei a ttracted and repelled
nc"comcrs in the broadened urban znas. Each area was formed in <:Qruidetalion of
\
12 Modelling Urtun Development with GIS and Cellular Automata
res:dcotial land dcvc!OpOI<nl. and Alonw's (196.1) and Lowry' (196-1) moods of
urban structur'e.
'Ningo (1961} was the first rt"carcher who developed n C011Ctpl
ti on Uemand considering the sp3Lin1 rehuj ouship bet v,' en home ond work. \Vi th the
journey 10 work viewed os the technological \ink between the labou force and th e
p1oduction ptocess. hc dciined 1l1e demand for nlovement as til e total CIILI)Ioymem of
1111 udmn area mlltiplied b)' the frequency of work. Drawing on fl concept of
SJbilit)", Wingo used a unit of nlC3.surcmcnL thai was cttlcultued as t he c ost of trans-
poHalioJl ba<:ed on rhe time "I)C01 in movement bel\\'een poinl$, 01' the Oul-of-pocket
cosLS for these movements in money cqui,aler.L to d1stancc and
of triJ>S. By substituting lranfiporta.tion costs for location C04it.S. \Vin.go achieved a
loca.aional equilibrium for the d1"'uhuuon of househo!ds of particular n:ntpay abili
ue' to sites of a p3cr'ttcular structure of tents. With the: maxim1sahon rule of utility,
W1ngo's com:.ept genertued n rent and rcsjdenaal density grad1tnl chat declines from
1hc <entre to I he periphery.
Snmlar 10 Wingo's conecpl. Alon;o's ( 1964) model also cmphas,.ed the subsli-
Lution o f Lransport anc1 lot size. He assumed tha t, in the h-1nd development
process. iudividua l decision mnkers, be they firn'll\ or houscholdc:, aimed ro mini-
rem and t.ransporuuion costs and rnax.1mise the area occupied. Alonso
a bid-reot c urve in his modc:l M a set of combi 1tations o f rtnl a nd lrM'Is port inputs
10 represent a n equal satisfdction level for an ind1vtdual. If the rer.t cunes for lo\vcr
in.:ome groups ,.,:ere s1eeper for E..ny p.tir of wi1h Identical tastes. the pOOl'
V.'Ould h\e at bigb dcnc.iue.4i ne3r 1hc city cenrre. dtc: nch 'A-"()uld live aalowcr
densilio\ near the periphery. Doth Wongo and Alonso confirmed Clark's (1951) origi-
nal on the distribution or population demlty grad1ents \\o ithin a Ctty and
sugiested that the exponc:ntial dt:n:sily di.stributio u.
general equntion 1har could be derived a of the theory of
Ul ban la ntl mal'ke.t.
Compared wirh Lhc above l\\0 Lowry's (l964) IWdel wn!) probably 1he
mus1 widely applied undc1 the. ..:conu111ic equiJibr iurn appro:t(; h of the 1960s. llis
modc;l was based on two undcl'lying a:..sumpLi ons: one 1ha1 rcsiLienrial densities
"'ithjn a cuy feB away in a logicol manner ar ound the of employment, and
tl":e other v.-as Lhat rhe location and employment of the sector were
Sllllngly inftuooced by acccssbolny 10 local customers whose ct feel was progres-
SI\dy reduced the farlhtr 3\lo-Oy they li\"ed. t:nder these assumpuons, Lowry divided
u:b."Ln. cmploymem mto basic and non-baste parrs 1n an urban economic base. \V1th
tl1c allocation of basic e mployment lo varous predeterm1 ncd locolions, the residen-
tial population that was Hkely 10 be associated with basic crnployl'l'lcnt was calculate d
nnd a Uo<:nted m the area. Set e mployment was then alloc31 cd 111 relation to Lhc
distl'iburion of the residcnlial popuiHliOJL To rnninlain a equilibrium of
employme nt, and rcsidenlial nnd service populalioM, lhe 1n0del was run 1'epea1cdl)
if non basic eo>ploymem hppenctl in I he area (Johnon 1972: 191). The model was
corn11aJ ativcly simple for pracLical l'pplicati<m. Therefore. thiS ,tpprottch was widely
axcp1ed and applied in planni&l>racliccs in 1he 1960s.
Although tbe star.dard ncocht))ica\ models both foc s_ta_l!S
form _"n<l lhelf S>rnphfied (Angel and H)mon 1972; Wheeler
Introduction to Urbtln Oucloprnenl Modelling
13
1970; Boyce 1965), much of the work carried out in I he 1970s "'"' conceroed wilh
rela" iog the \ariou.s os.sumpuons o( this approach. n1u-;, n1<x.lel$ in this peraod
mcorporated multirle urban cemres, different tran;:;J)()rt rnoc.lc::s, c:xternaUt.iessuch as
pelluuon, a nd public &uuds. Residcr.tial location also ineorporaLed mcomc
ditTcccnccs in household preferences, in environmental qual-
and racial discrimi nation in housing ma rkets. However, because of its ignorance
of the impact of humnn behaviour on urban growth und pau crning proce.o:;s. this
a pprozch t ecei\ ed fundamc01al criticism fJon behavioural approac-h abeorists :tnd
the huJDani st s.
1.2.4 BEHAVIOURAL API'ItOACH
Suiclly speaking, this nppr0.1ch "as referred to as lhecognnn.e behavioural approach.
!t frnm the craucism of IDe oversimplified concepts of human beh:t\'
iour implicit in the urba n ttofogical neoclassicnl oppn.,.achcs. Unlike li1ose posi-
cxj)loi:cd only a nafrow nspcct or human-"behaviou on ulility
max1m1sahon, the bchovtOUI'al a pproadl sought lo foc us nttcnliou on 1he motitmions
behind individual hehuviour, the way in which seurch and Jean: a bour
their urba11 environment. unt.l t11cir decision-making This appro:tch o fl cn
10\'0ived explicit reJCCIIOn of the assum1\rion of Lhc ra1 ionul economic person and th e
simple utilily moximi<lllg and IVngley urba de,el-
opmem model dev<IOJ>ed at I he Univcrsily of North Carolina led by Stuan Chapin i
00<1 exJamplc of 1his approach (Ch2pm and Wei" 1962a).
\\'ith the objccu\e ol :approachmg the d)nam1cs of urban growth, rhe North
Carolina Groupde\elnpred a common framework w1ch four e lements for their studies.
These fou( were: the value system, behtwiour p.tttcrns. devekopmcm,
rand the control process. ihcccntral concern of this framework was the behaviou r pat-
terns that were 1hc I'Cfll'eStiiiOtions of hu:nan rlKin l'lt!\ e iOpJncnl was vie"cd
as an e nd re.o;uh Qf la unHut nctiorts, and lhe value syste m of urban society tl.S t:1c pri-
lnal'y source o f the impulse for actions. l1le objcc1ivc of I Ius fra me\vork \Vas 10 seek
cx.pJanations ofurb:an de \ elopmertL in lerrns ofhumnn hehavioor, '"ith the behavj our
patterns beJng a funct1on (If people's values. The fourch c:1tmcnt of this framework,
chc conttol prOCess, concerns how influence could al:cr or affccr behlviour p1ue
1
ns
and thereby modtfy urhan de\elepment toward cenatn predetermined goa4. This
element is often referrc."d co urban dt"elopmeul $lrHtt:&ic) and plans. Under th as
rrante.wod:, urban dC\'Ciopntent \\as first v1ewcd as the consequence of certain stra
tcgic decisions 1hat .; rructurt the pauern of grO\Yth nnd development. and then as
consequence of he rnyri,,d or househo!d, nn<l governme nt decisions thm
followed from the fi rst kC) decisions. Therefore, rocus of [his framework " 'lS
on that WCr'C cmical in I he behavioural SC(ILICI1CCS or luman actio n;. 'The
idcnrifica1ion, aud interpreta tion of lh vllluc systems that fNmu lat c
human behs\'iour were C:.licntial for I he full ana lysis o f urban dc""eiOJUnenl.
The applicat ion of fmmework Iu s several advorua.ges. s uch as tb.e
on lhe decision-mak1ng of urba1 de,:elopmenl snd the introduction of a con
lfol process. However, I >I: Olher moddsdeveiOped under 1h<.: bch.lvioural app:oach,
he models focus w.u on s1mulnung lhe indi...-idual ... rnakmg process, m this
14 Modelli ng Urban Development wi th CIS and Cellular Automata
case che dl,trJbution of households 10 available )and. t\hhough group dec-isions v.-ere
rcannJcd D) Jr..c.y in the cor:ceptual franlC\''Ork , lhc.y were assumed to be
koO\\n (Chapon aDd Weiss 1962b
of us O\erernRJ:aasis on indvdu31 beh.l\iOur rntbcr than group beba,-
iour, and other weaknesses suet: as the overly \lmrlistic vtew of the relationshtp
bem"<cn cOjlnillOn and behaviour and the lack of general applicabthty, tlte beha.-
iournl :\f)proach \'-as _aJ!_acked fn>m n variety of direcuonl in the lnte I97_9s. This
provoked n rethin"-.ing by those who wanted to defend the basic concepts of the
behnvioul'td approJ.ch . AuernpLS were made hoth ul s ucngtlle nmg the iniljal crude
behnviountl ossumptions.lri fields such as innuwtlio n diffusicm rutd residcmial mobil-
ity, in buildiug links bcl\veen models of indi vidual bchJviour Nnt.l wider societal
con>trnints (lJttssetl and Short J 989).
1.2.5 S>'SHMS A PPROACH
ll1c rtpproa:;h was. firs.t used in urban mcxlelling m the 1960:,. 11 was b:lSM
M.he nouons of the Ge.neral Syem< Theory. According to vo11 Rertalanffy (1968),
e\er)th1ng t.xtst.s m a sor-1 of in which it becomes an cJc:mem.
of the are linled and Interrelated and are also linked to the s)'ilems
ronmcnt. For in.sumc:c. an urb3u system consi.s1c: of a set or clements or subs) stems,
liuch as populauon, land, emplo}ment, and tronspon. to mention arc"' All
c:lc:::mt ntc: "1th1n the systern are it.tcract1ng \\ ithcach Olher 1hrough \Ocial. eco:tem:c.
and sp.1tialmechanisms while hey are ai(,O uuerncun.c with elements in 1he environ-
tl'l4!nt. The s.igmficance of any one element not depcrh.t on Itself but oo jtS

with It s the links betY.-ecn lhc different of the system
-dclcrm inc its and so permit the process of c hange ln the Thus, th.c
focus of the :.ystcms approach is not on Any :angle clcmenl but the ccmuec11QilS a nd
procesc thnt ltnk a ll the clemems (Ch isholm 1967). '!'his '"llgests the npplicntion
or sys tcus nnatysis 111 dealing with 1he syswm.
'The implementation of sys_tems analysis involves two kC)' steps: the first is. the
of a JHtrltcular system the objccl of study. hnd the the way of
dcseri btnt the q rntl urc and behavi(lllr of the m. In rega.n.l to 1 he definition of
systems. Cho rley and Kennedy (1971) identified four thlfetent typcs of system<. the
morl>hologJcal system, the cascading system. the and 1he
con1rol (1-lgurc 1.3). A morphological sys1cm represents lhe stalic relation
"\hips as links between elements. whereas linl.:$ 10 a system pass energy
from one element 1.0 another. The $iys1cm cornbmes the first two
types or but the focus of on 1h1s S)Siem IS on tbe p1ocess rather than
the fo rm. "uh the emphasis on causal relation<lups. Tlus S)stem bas two subtypes
of Sl mplc DCtlon and feedback sysrems. The rourlh l)pc or that is. the c.:onuol
system, represents a special case of 1he process- rc-.pc:"mc sy)tcm. in wbkb one or
more c lements ttct ns valves to regulate the S}\tcm's operottnn and thc.:rdore tnay be
o.:oed ro contm1 it.
Jn I'Wde l' tn the struc ture a nd behaviour Of S)'SIC111S, a diverse range Of
mmhc uuuicnl has been This factor WlZt lyss. pdncipal
componcnl mulysis. multict'ite.da analysis, linear nnd nonlinear programming. as
hHroduction to Urban Development
15
<>
(b)
(c)
(d)
riCUR[ 1.3 Po-rlmy:tls of djfferent sySltn:': (a) moe phological, (b) C&$C3ding_, (e)
a:'ld(d)conlf<'l. A. 8. Md C areth:tl! I jnput to a S)'Uem; 0-= O'Jlfllt from
1 (from Robinion. G. \t . Mtthl>d1 end tedwlq:us inltumon gtogrcph). Johl \Vi ley,
'\'tw Ytd, 1998. With pe:n:tission.)
wdl as dynam1c sysern SJl'ttUlation. Among chese nltdJocls. the techntque or Systems
Oynamtos develOped by Foctester ( 1971, 1969, 1961) for Simulating the urb:ln devel-
opment processes played an imporuwt role hence is worth notino
Titc Systems Dynamics technique was hr.st de\'ciCJpcd for industria)
process in flnns. blll chis technique wide npplicability ( aauy 1976). Derive.d
11'01 u lhe idea of control e ngineedng, aS) ste m developed u si 11.g the System Oynarn ics
t1pproR..:.h is dosed 'Vith a feedback loop nructurc. ' l11c is bounded lO :ncludc
lh OSC intCfCSii llf', COilli>OnentS fi(!CCSSary (0 aenerUlC lh C modes of behaviour of inLer
t is dosed so thh( outside occutrenc.:: cHn be viewed "as random haJ>peni ngs that
WIJ:>ugc on the system and do llOt themselves give 1 he syMcm i ts imrinsic growth and
c haracteris tics" 1969: 12). The feed back loops are the fundamen-
la l blocks oflbc system. Thed)namic bcluwiour of1he system is ,gecerated
w1thm feedback loops lhat are contei,cd in 1ermc: of le, els of stocks {level variables).
level are. prosressi,ety over llln c by the ra1e of (ra1e
'-anables). fhe rare vanablcs are affectai by posalive and negative fetdback
wnhm system. Through 1he usc of a special computer language called
DYNAMO destgned by worker; at the Musachusett>lnMitutc of Technology 11\HT).
S)f'lcm Dynamics has been used lo chc: d)namic behaviour of urban sys-
rcms und pcovide prediel.ioru on urban dtv.eloprnc nt under different condition). Thi s
u:c:hnique was regarded as providmg n laborntOr)' for s trategic and tacttcat research
(Forrester 1969). However, <he lacb of theoretical support a nd lhe difficully in test in
lhc rclauon.ships being modelled 10 an)' Stgnitlcnnl extent have caused criticism of
thi5 OJlJ>roach, a nd the characicristics of Lhis approach has also liol.i ted its
oppl icn1ion in modelling urban de-.etoprncnt in nnd titnc.
l(o Urhan Development with GIS and Cellular Automata
"llle approach presented wnh a '-'"a} of co:.struuing models
beyond 1he simple cause- effect or sttmulus:-response re:l:uiun,h1ps. 1bcrcfore.
m<Xiels are widely accepted especl<ally by plann<:rS in rnodelhng the behaviour or
Ut'ban systems and predicting future developments. HO\\Cvc.:r, the weakness of
this approach ls alsoobvious. l..,'or tnstancc. in order to make modebopcrHtiorul l, some
model s \vere focused on smn11 of the syslem they r:nhcr t hun the system
.1s a whole; mhus used simplified mathematical fonnu1o h.> represcm the complex
rc; lu1lonships or links between clcuu:l ts in the systcnl. In with the tempo-
tal chJ.ngc of systems. the sy1w:ms approach freezes changes in l'alher than
modelling Lhc. change itself. Therefore. the 1emporal change of a lt)'Mtm is dealt wnh
from an cssenually static pc:r..pedl\-e (Robinson 1998). !!_w: linutauons
fii)J)roach on the General Sy'llems Theory irnJ)Iy that the complexuy of rcalil)
iieeds 10 be uodc::rsrood 31)d modclk.d in new ways.
ln the three decode-;. Studic) Qf nonlinear and upc;n systems have
led to the emergence of new u of complex $)'l'lltnh ond their e\ olution.
ou Lhese t1ndersutndi ngs. ci11es arc looked at as complex auJ open systems tb{ll
h.we l h CApabi lity or sel f OI'gnniS.U(iQII. The (:QOCopiS of sc1forgonisnt ion. chaos.
ond complexity lheorics hnve led to rruhful srudies on u1ban dcvdopmen1, which
v will he discussed in lhe following sec tion.
1.3 CONTEMPORARY PRACTICES OF URBAN
DEVELOPMENT MODELLING
Suuting from the J980s, 1hc 1n nonlinear sys1ems. fracrnh. ar.d the Chaos
Theory ha.vc led to new v.ay<. of lookiug at cities and lhcir dc,cloprnem, v.'hich
led to progress io urb:m modelling both and practic:ally.
swdies on nonlinear have led lO the undc::rstn.nding of urban
dcvc1opmt.:nt as ! tO J)IOCCSS in I he n1anncr of biful'CIHiOn nnd (Allen
1997; Batty and Longley 1994; Wal o n 198la,b). Pracliclly, the emergence of new
<lnta sources and OIS have provicled urb:w with not only
l'ich d ala rccs bul also new plat forms Mad te:hniques for dat..t manage. nent, analy
1 c;,5, :md visualisation (Sui 1998; N)crgcs 1995). Jn addition, the o.ppHeatjon of lhe
luu.y set theory and ruzz)' toxic an urban modelling has PfO'' aded ways of sort cont-
puung thotarecloscrto 1he real pro<;<:<S of the progress of (Wu 1998b. 1996;
Openshaw and Openshaw
1.3.1 C ITIES AS SELF-0RCMIISI"G SYSTEMS
Although the s)s1cms l>.tscd on the Gencml Syslcms Theory I)I'Ovided an
approach to look at cities in cornplcx. wuys. il is esscntifIIY Sla 11c und i s Urnjled in
che nbi li t> to deal wirh dynamic phrnomena. Following the Gcncru) Systems
11eory, on systems went beyond w focus on several speck1l typcs of systems.
including catastrophjc anti ch3.0Lte 'y.stcms. Jn a catastrophiC S)'!l-lclll. ctilicat values
of paramelers exist ru which some unusual beh:.wiour of the can occur.
llolh the catastrophe and bifurcauon theories arc: concerned w1th these crilical
uet. Studies in the Choos Theory reveal that C'-'-en tbe simplest systems that
Introduction to Urban Development Modelling
17
obey determinrs1ie la\1.:;, c.1n IKfmit unpredictable unccrta.1nty (Robinson Ibn)'
and Longley 1994). Rcccct studre.\ on nonlinear reinforced the eiecc<. of
bifurcmion and ch3os. but they also that ordtr) exist Within (Btttty
and Longley 1994). The "ork <arried out ot the Brussels School produced impor-
ranl resuhs aboUI Hod chemical sys1ems 1hm wc1e aJso applied t> urhan
modell illg (PI'igogine and Stcngers 1984). The mam1<1en ot I he BrusselsSch(IOl
.open syStem where there is an of materia 1 a nd e nergy
(
w1th Jts che tlow of cnerg)' or Ola1erh1f could tnke 11'>e system to a
"far from (Prigogine aod S1engcrs 1984: 141). The nonlineat
qf jnteraction bclv.ccn drffcrenl elemer.ts of the can gencrale po'Sibililics of
I birurcation that moy the global state of the system and lead to "order from flue
(P..-igogine and 1984: 173). Jt is the same nonlule;-PI-oces\ th:u
responsibJe for the dcstrucuon of the order and 1he ttnernhon of a new order
another bifurcation. These ideas rhe exjuence or a sdforganasmg carabiluy
lhC)' al)o sugges1 that local t>ebaviouC: carl lend
evemua lly to dirrereau &19b,it !r!'cturc ( Wu -
on lhe undersw.nding of Lbe open lhCory, the process of urban dcvcl-
opmem is being looked n1 Ill new ways. A city can be viewed .:1s nn opt.m and c,'>mplex
self-organising sy.stcnl I hat is far fJ'OilJ being in cq uilib11111f'l , and it in a C{)nslant
e.\tbangc of goods and ene1gy with a ud il s hinLcrland. n
1
e StrtK1ure of
this system emerges from local actions '"'here uncoonJinatcd loca l decision cak
1
ng
may gave nse 10 cOOrdinated global patterns. l:rb>n develol>rll<>r.t is thus a spalially
d)'naJnJC process, cxhabumg some fucdamenral features of a M:lf.organising system.
like the spread of a or ri.rc.. the edge of an urban area ISCOtblarul)'
mg toward lhe adjacent ruroJ land. Prtvious urbnn rorrn an impact on prc:<>ent
urban fonll, and it, in hltn, will influence future urbln This tmderstmding
su,ggcst::; that a ground up approach under he self.orgnnbin paradigm to address
thc.loca1 behaviou1 ()( I he is more real iSI ic in n1odclli ng ur bHn (!evelopn
1
enl,
whtch has ,esuhed in I he emergence of a new class of si mul n1 it.)tl models ( ne . .,e
11
s
0 11
and 2004; Wu 1998a; llauy 1997. 1995; While and Engelen 1994. 1993;
Couclchs 1985). These models indude d ifrusion-limitcd aggregation (DLr.l, geo-
sJmulauon base.d on nutonuua. and the agen1-based models.
DiffusiOtl-linuted AJirc,ation (DLA) is one of Lhe mosc importam rl")ojeJs of
fracLal growch. 11 is based on pnncip!c;s of fractal geometry illusuuing the jrreg
ular suucture of a $)Sk!rn thai bas the same degree of irrcgultrll\ on all sc3le$.
Th1s charactennic of lrregularit) is called The grO\\:Ih dyn3rties or
a DLA model is lhrl)tl&h nt:trction at 1bc periphery. wh1ch is rcmarkabl) sirnplc.
F'or example, in a plnnc space with on I)' one immot,tle Sc!:cd. a particle i;; launched
from a random posuion far a way from the seed, find this particle is allowed to di f.
ruse on lhe space. If the portidc touches the st:cd, it is instnnlly immobihscd a nd
becon)es part of the aggrcgmc. Then, similar tli C lounchcd one by one, a nd
each of them slops upon hiUi 11g tbc aggregate cluster. \ Vitf1 more particles
the probabilil)' of new parucles sticking in the neighbourhood of lhedustcr
mcreases. Therefore, aflcr launching a large numbt1 of p.uticlcs. a duster W!lh a
dendritic e.'<tending from the seed This model. tirs1 de\elored hy
IWO phySICI$1$, r. A. Willen and L. M. S.tnder (1981). llustroiC$ a genernl cb ss o f
(
(
IU
Modelli llS t;rbat\ Development with CI S nl'td Cellular Automata
th.'lt underlies many phcnOil\ena chardCitfi\Cd by dendritic g;rowrh. such
as growth or rr0-'\1 on 8 windo,'Ypanc. lighting. and bparks. [t first by
Dally (1991) iniO urban gn>wlh r.todelliog. in& lhe rules proposed by W1nen
and S..nder (1981). ll:uty de'-cloped a model of Ol.A 10 mod<ollhe dynam1c urban
growth. "hieh \\3S app1ied and tested in both small to medmmsJZc:d c:mes (Batty
and Longley 1994).
C
1
ban models based on rhe au:.omata technique ha"e emerged under the para.-
d1gm -ofn sci f.--organising system. wiLh ccllula1 automau1 being simp!est
popu tar i
11
acuon. An ;tULomaton is an enthy thai hac: uon-spau.al
chnrn.:::tcristicli hut al so has the mechanism for pi'OCCC:S1ng anformauon on Jts
o wn cho.rnClcristics, r ules, and external input (Bencnlton nnd 'l'brrel''ll\ 2004).
aulOI1'lutn arc a specia l type of automata that a re .w.touuua, atranged m
c'Cgu ltwly s pace, for example, d egular J rld . I nfonnnuon can
and trnmanhtcd beL ween ceJJs (or automata). which proptlS,llles chrough ne1ghboun.ng
Although the technique of cellulanlutomata dates back to the very begm-
ninQ of disital computation (Macrae 1992), is only 1inee 1hc la1e 1980s that this
tc:chnique htb bc:c:n used to explore the bchaHour of .1 'clr .. orgo.nswg and lO
model I he process of urb>ngroo.1b (Wu and Web\\tr 2000. 1998; Bally, X1e, and Sun
1999; llnlly 199:1; Clarke and Gaydos 1998; Wu 1998a,b,c, 1996; B:!tty. Couclehs.
and Eichen 1997; Bally and Xie 1997. 1994c; Clarke. Hoppen, and Gaydos 1997;
Couclclis 1997. 1989, 1985; White and ):,ngclen 1997. 1994, 1993; While, Engclcn,
and UIJCC 1997; Cecchini 1996; llami 1994).
AnOiher type of aUlomata. the mul1iple agenl (MAS). has also
ndoplod for u1e 1n urban modelling (Torrens and nenenson 2005; Bcnenson, O:ncr,
nd l lnLna 2002; Bencnson 1999, 1998). The mulli-asent syste ms are desgned as
collccuon of inte1acting autonomous agents. each ha\' ing 11c; OWl\ capacities a nd
gm
1
ts. but together they relate to a common cnviron,n em. This .lype of model
atcq on l hc princ iples os the ccllulnr nulomtua wuh each
consldercd us individual autonornous ag<mt-outom:no ( lOt rcns 2003), and thel' States
gcncrHIIy rprcsenl some cha.ractcd sucs. However.
ccllu Jur nutomma und muldvagcnt systems exist inn number of ways.
is thnt ln 1 he system . . the btasic unil of ocrivhy is the o!
ccprec:<enung individuals, developers. planners, or
art autonomou5 in Lhat they are capc.,ble C' maktng a.cuoos, tl1e1r
aCII\
1
ucs ttre dlrcc1ed roward achie,ing defined ta<iks or goa h. and thear nfluence on
the en' ironment can be at dtffereot scales.
Another distineton between the cellular automata and the systems
""' that cetlulsr automata are fixed cells m the CJ\ lnuice. "-hert3S the '"
the systems are dynamic and mobile enlttt.eS th:u can mo'e wnhtn the
sp>ecS that 1hey inhabi!'' (fonens 2003). 1 hesc anent$ also can process and rrzns
rruL Jnforrnauon while tJ1ey move along the a nd the 1nformauon from
one ogcr.t and en, ,ironment to another in Lhcir neighbourhood. I he
rH.'tg hbourhoocl rchtttons.hips iJ1 agent nutomota ore u1so mdJ'\-'1dual
.lCnts \\her their locations in space, theil rel&tonShiJ)S
11
1
is ll'Odclli ng techni<JUC offers more Jl ex1b1ht)' , us 1he1r ngcnt.s ?nly c.a.11.Y tht-
intcrnnl fenlUre of the automa ta and the U\eChOI\ISI1'1 or l rll llStnl rtulg mfor maUOil to
lntrodurtion to Urban OevcloptrH:tlt Modelling
its neaghbours, 1hey aJso represent the behavioural characteristics or c<1n eve.l simu-
late "intelligence" (Torrens 2003). Therefore, I his l) pc of modelling approxb also
o((crs attracti\'C features in urban moddlmg (White and Engelen 2000}. HO'\C,cr. in
p.-.euee, !he agent-b:lsed models an; lm popubr compored to CA-based models in
urban simulatM>n. and most of the agent-based rnodds dc"-clope.d in urban mOOeiUng
wen: ocwally aS CA and rein1erpn:.1ed as ltH_t;:ms (BmensOO-
lifTorrens 2004;-Torrens 2003; Bcncnwn. Orner, and Hatn 2002).--
1.3.2 Fuzzy SET AND Fuzzy Loc1c
Another devctopmcm in urban modelling in recent )Cars is the appliccn ion of t he
r'uny set cheor)' a nd fuu.y logic. With the unt:lcnaunding t hat rJrecise mathematics
urc 1101 nhvoys sufficient 10 model udc<IOUlc ly chc hchnviour o f complex systems,
il WftS t huughl t hai a diffcrcm km.d of mathematics of ruz?..y (H"
cloudy c1uantities that were not in term$ of probability
netded (Zadeh 1962). The fuuy set Lheory ws developed 10 handle problems that
hu\'c. no sharp boundaries or situations m which C\'tnts are ru zzily defined. Puz?:y
logic wus used to describe tbe fuzzy r<lauonhrs 1n fuay sys1em (Zadeh 1965).
l'uuy ""' and fuzzy log1c onginally de, doped by Zadeh (1971, 1965, 1962).
and lhty w<re ap1>hed in control engineering (Hohnblad and Osterguard 1981;
Marntlnni and As.sman 1975). HO'\\e\cr. the potential applications of this theo..-y go
(3r beyond the design of in:elhgent corJrollen.. and 1t is realised to be applicable to
man)' d<ua anaJrsis, deciston-making, Md modelling prac1ices rele,anc to gcogrctphy
(Optn<haw and Openshaw 1997).
IJrhan dc,eJopmcnt is the result of a s.eres of dectsion making processes thal .arc
fc:uured by a ra nge of uncertain1ies ill these procc:.scs. Fuzzy and fuzzy logic
provtdc WB)'S of de. :lling wjth th\;SC unc:crtamucs (Zirn nleJ'l'llfl nn 1987, 1985: Zadeh
1965). Fnr a sys1em re presented by a series of va r iables (Wu 19981>,
1996; Ahmnn 1994; Wang 1994; Zadeh 197Sa,h,c), .<uch as good ," very good,"" vr
"modcrnw," a concept ofmembei'Sflip degree de fi ne d in a fu7.?y set and is used to
r <: pi'CI\CI'It the extern of t.he uncertainties Through the Jlocesscs of '"fuz.zificacion'
nn1l ''dcfuzzification; the behaviour of decis10n making c an be mode.lled in a nan-
ncr l hnt better represents. human th111k1ng (Zodeh 1965). Applications of futzy set
and fu1.7.)' logtc have been obscn:ed co,ccing land suitability analysis (Da\ idson.
and Bloksma Hall. Wong. and Subaryono 1992). There is
an increase in the literature look1 ng at mtegrouna fu.ny reasoning and fuztyquery
1n10 GIS (Wang and Hall 1996; AllmAn 1994; Wnng 1994, Banai 1993; Kollus and
1991). "lllere is further literature rt!'rdmg !he applica1ion of fuzzy logic
c:onnolto build dynamic simulauon models (Wu 1998b. 1996).
1.3.3 GIS A"l) URBAN MODELLING
All houg h GIS Yr"ere developed over three decades ngo nnd have be.cn recognJsed as
cffctd\'C tools in geographical resea1c h stnce, lllCSe techniques hnd been developed
il'l 1>nmlleJ 10 ubm'l rnodell ing without muc h inu:rnctions for over , ,...,.o decades (Sui
1998). II was nol unti l the late J980s thnt OIS I'Cseuchcrs tried to mregrare thejr
techniques with urb3n modelli ng in the hope of improving the analytical capabilities
20
Modelling Urban Development with CI S and <.:ellvlar Automata
of GIS techniques (Fischer, Scho!ton, and Unwin 1996; rot hermgham and Rogerson
199-1: Anselin and Get is 1992; f'o;cher and l'iijkamp 1992; Goodchild. Haining, and
Wo<e 1992). Following these effort>. duung the 1990s, both GIS users and urlxtn mod-
cllers .:)howcd an illCreasing inleaest in the i ntegration or the lYiO t:::<:hniques. Through
this integfauon, urban modcllcrs hmc recognised that GIS ll ns provkled modelicn:i
with i>1atforms JQ! .. and (Nyera_es .
Yl any sw11e.gies for linking nodcls with a GIS exisl, which cnn he classified
l\ broad sca1c as a loose coupl1ng or a slrong cm:pling strcuegy. The loose coupling
i1l usually based on imr)orllng or exporting common dn1:.1 that are used in
both the model and the GIS. On the other hand. a strong coupling suategy is base<!
on addmg the IUnctionaluy of oae system to 1he other (ither b) embedding a model
wuhin a GIS or vice (Bony and Xoe
Other dassafications on the i ntegnaticn of GIS aod urb:tn modelling approaches
alsocxost. For instance, Sai (1998) Identified four different approach<:> chat have been
w
1
dcly used by resea.-chct'$. Thc.:se en\bedding GlSIIke funct ionalities imo
urban modelhng packogel, M those illustrated by Rirkin al. (1996),1'utnam ( 1992),
<;Iarke ( J990), and Hnslell, Wi lis, and Unwin (1990); eonbeddin& urban modelling
into a GIS by software venders, <uch as in the packages of TransCAD (Caliper
Corp<>ration 19&3) and the ArcGJS Analyst Extension (bSRI 2004a); loose
coupling an urban model with 01 OIS pAckage where there Are consta nt dala exchanges
hetween tbe t.vo systems, such .. , lho>t u<ed by Clsoke and G)dos (1998):
coupling of GIS and urlxt n modelling via either a GIS macro Qr conventional
prosrununmg. such aJ th<><c deV<Ioped by Batty and Xie An..:lin, Oodson.
and Hudak (1993). Dinll and Fothennglllm (1992). and Moller Although GIS
vendors have incrcthingly rccogused the irn1>0r1ancc ur (;IS's analytical
and modelling cap,b>lnics. most or the GISb>Sed urban modelling cl'forts are made
throLLgh the loose or tight coup! mg upproach (Clarke and Guyd<l6 1998; Sui 1998).
Vlith the shift of urb:u1 modelling frnrn the conventional topdown approttch to
Lite. C'll rrcnt pracdces in locttliues. models such O$ those using diffusion
lirnit..:d aggregalion and ccltutar tHilornata 1ecll niqucs have demonstrated consider ..
ahle potential in the ntutual benefits of urb>n modelling and GIS (Bally, Xie, and
Sun 1999; Wu 1998a,b, 1996).
1.4 PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS
Although chere has been a long hiStory m develop<ng mathematical models of urban
de ...e lopmc:nl and progress been made in current praeucc. the efforts of urban
modell ing have f'ICOUntCI'Cd di ffi culties both theorettc:tliy and technically.
1.4.1 T HEORETICAL PROBLCMS
From I he re\iew or the I heorcl icalapproachcs lO urban model I ing in Sec lion 1.2. It l S
obvlous lhatthe Lhcorcticnl of urb.'ln modelling i ver)' wc:.1k. t:or instance. the
urban ecological aprroac:h \\3S on the belief that human behaviour was
mmcd by ecological princoples. "hcreas the social ph)'SlCalaJ>proach was developed
as a din:ct analogy to thcorie' m physo<:s. The neoela"icnl apjlroacb was lxtsed
lnuoduction to Urban Ocvtdupment Modelling
21
on tbe utili[)' maxirnisauon law in eco.1a..-nics thst "'M exrended 10 che bcbav1our-al
approach exploring the mouut10n of individual beltnviour pro
ccsses. Each approach one or two nspccts or urban a nd
cte;;cribing other aspects. To what extent chese theories are appropl'i-
n.te 111 the p..1!tcrns and processes of urbnn developrm:nt remains a ques-
tjon. Although the systcnls approach has the ad\'ilutnge of exploring conceptually
th e complex nrnong factors wichi u urbun system, 1his a pproach is
unabJe to fundamenmlly cxpi3Jil Lhe S[Tucturing and de'llelop1nent of urban
On the other h3nd, troduiona l modeJiing pracuces lutvc been focused on the
- proress. or desigL_nnd somcturc of the model. These model
ling practices have contnbuttd little to the de,elopment of ne" (Sm 1998;
!lacey 1981; &henique 1975. Lee 1973). Recetu studoe< on fmotals and the Chaos
Theory b3\'C led co che developonenc of cite cellular nucornato modeUing (Bany 2000;
Couclctis 1997, 1989. 198S; l'offoli and 1987) ThJS approoch has been
nmodcHing technique in physics, chemistry, biolOgy. computer
sc1ence: g-eography. nnd other envi,onmental (fbr imlancc, Clarke, Brass,
and Riggan 1995; Mninstcr J992; Doolen and Montgo111ery 1987; Guan !987; Sander
J986: Vincent 1986; !lurks And F11rmcr 1984; H.ill i< 1984: Yichniac 1984). Howc.ve
1
,
both the And Lhc practical applicabili ty of thi s approach need to be
J'ul'ther develo ped and tesccd (Suo 1998).
Anotha theoretical prohlem in urban modelling concern:. the behavout' and the
As wa; di>cussed in Seccoon I l.S regarding tl>e piuatisofmOdel
bu1lding, i11s nOSI impor1ant to verify 1be modcl"s outcOines and check if 1he model
trul} the it models. h IS alw nc..-ccs.sary to lest the scnsi
v.tuch indudes te.,lS Olthc model's output ; .j(b diffirem
mputs, or the or errors m compultltion because of the roundi ngup of values. or
che eftect _of compoundtng eumuhllive c::rrors wher1 subrnodcls arc linked (F.cheniquc
1975). TbJS or nodcJ verification a1td lt:SLing i11 C$pccinlly importam if the
model is built ou or Even j j' n mo<tc.:l is dc:wdoped ba;;ed on
sound theo(ies, Lhc model needs to be tc.!acd riSOI'Qtr.)ly errors i n r.he model
may be larger than che <:'(.ptctcd change of 1he system being modelled (Echenique
1975). cor.vcnuonal urban models ha,e inc.luded these t 1 itical
As acunsequcnce, they could not be used
devices for tesung urban policies cc comparing growll1 sccnano1:0 in diffcrtnt c1nes.
I,o addition to 1h7 the lack of ,alidily/scnsiti,ity analy
_ scs on urban modethng. many models are de,'Cioped ho<cd on n opec! fie locality; they
lack rhe general reappleca1)tluy co other regions. Moreover, m<bt conventional
els were .developed to model cltics in more developed count des. They Jackthe:.bi liry
to cxplanl the paucrns nnd prC'Ices<-es of urban dcveloprttent in the Jess developed
countr ies. especially in the socinlisL countries. For exumplc, the urban I
approach was based on uban factodal ecology chal perta ined h) Western societies.
It is hal'd ro defl ne urban growth p:mems in terms of o mode.J in citjcs of
countries. All hough u1ban lfc\c!opment in developed countries is very
ttp1d 1n the recent tl1cn: is an obvious lack in bu1ldlng models todescrtbe tJ1c
structure and J)311erm of urban growth in theSe COtni"<lred to the efforts in
modeiJing urban developmcnl 1n I he more countries.
22 Modelling Lrban Deve'opmcnt wilh GIS and Ccllul.at Automata
1 .4 .2 TtCH'IICAL PROOL[ MS
Anotl\cr type nf problem will' u ban mode IIi 1'\g conl.:erns technical One of these
to data cwallability and dma the othc.r relates to the wuy GIS can be
applied 1n unplcmenting urban nlOdels and in m.uupulatingand \1couali.sing da1.a.
Con,cntionally. dala ar: collected by researchers undertaking (f)ecific resc..vch
projecrs. \Vith the-applications of GIS and technology. more and
more dnto bccone available f oan both commercial data prlwidcr:,. government
orgaojsations, nnc.J profes...;ionnl institutions. However, problems exlsL in lhe compl-
rabilily and accuracy of datonnd the vtay m \Vh iciHhey are hand led. 'J'hcsc problems
relate to the vaiat ion in the areal unit that is frequellt1y d e.sined for differe nt
purpOses. 1hc )c'\el or degree of aggregation OJ data. and the way of sampling
for spatial data acqujsiti()n. The IIC(.:Utacy or datn also de-pends on data pro\iders and
the w.ay dma are stored and rrc:;cnted. h IS frorn tl us perspectl"e that there exists a
general Inc "' of good datn tbr s pecirtc research purposes. Thercrvrc, for
and achievi ng such go()d daw i11 all 1nodeJ Ji ng effons bccou\es an in1p0rt ant task.
The rApid gro\\lh of GIS :1nd its integration w1th urban modelling has provided
modellers whh n('w pla1forms for data managtmem and visuallu_tion (Nyer&-c:S
t99S). HO"e\er, this integrauon u essc:n11ally technical in nature, and u has not
touched upon rundament31 issue_., m either urban modcJiing or GIS (Sui 1998}. llus
is tO the difference. in the sp.atitd data rcprc'\entnuoo schc.:rnes irwoh'cd in urblln
modelling nnd GIS (Abel, Ki lby, and Davis 199,1). lJssenLially, I he devclopmcm of
GlS is UJ)On a Jimitcd mop metaphor {l:lurrough ood Frank 1995: Harris and
Bauy 1993), wbert features in sp1tte a re captured in n1Rp loyers ejther
as lines. and polygons. or as raster cells. and these fcaiUre an: temporally
fi"ed (Raper and Li,ingston<:: 1995: Gazcilon.lelhy, and \\tllhamson 1992: Peuque1
1988). This of reprcscntalion 1s not compatible with the rcl.tuvc:/rel:uion;ll
and dynHullc conccpmnlisnuon of sp(lce in urb:.Ht modelling {SLii 1998). Therefore,
the curn:nl l!ffettt in integrat ing n GIS wil h utba n mo<l ellillg is not and
rcquhes research at a higher lc"el l n space and un1c, whkh has led
to the c:me1gence of lhe new geographical inforrnauo:t sciences (GoodchHd 1992;
1\CGIA 1995; Sui
1 .4. 3 fUlURf
Wilh the owa,cncss of iSS\ICS concer ning ullxm rnodclli('l,, improvements can be
achieved In \1 I pnu;tice. rheorclically, the developllletH or sci f ..
sys.tems And complexity 11)1!01 ies has pro\ridcd new ways o f unders1a ndmg the paue rns
and [X'OCCS>Q of urban dC'oclopmcnt A larg<! body of literature ha< been established
for con$ttU<.1ing urban models under the new sctf.organhing p3r2dl&m that has been
applied nnd tested unde-r Vllrious circumstances and in dtffercnt reg1ons. Through these
efforts, l ht theoretical foundncions of urban dC\'cloprm::nt \Vill be u through
1ocal ly dclincc.l urban transil ions.
The theoretical developmc tU in urt>an rnodt lhng will also hCI'Icfil researchers in
data e<>llectio<t and handling. A:. (1974: 12) SLaies, 'we collecJ data intention
any, and behind these are tbeOI'IC$ ab<xu how the workl IS constructed."
Jnlroduclion to Urban Oeve!opmem \\odc-lllng
2l
Tl 1o establibhment of ccnai n. Is demands certain kinds ur i nformatjon (Echcu iquc
1975). cnn locus on looking only for rhc information lhoy nccJ.
Fo.the llllegrauon or urban Wilh GIS. Si (199R) nrgucd tbal lhe l)lilh-
could not be solved 1f th1s nuegrahon cominueJ lObe lt'Cat('d as a technical
I),)UI!. He a new for urbAn modelling based onthene"IY dcvcl
opmg gcograptucollnforrnnhons.ctencc. Modeb under this rmme"'Or-l::should enable
to desc_rlbt: lhc emerging urbnn form in more cou1prebenshe lQ
lhc und?rlytng processes co ul nbuung to the e-rnergem:c of new fouw;, filld lO
prcsc:nbc cffecuve u(hnu r>oJicjes to rcdircc:1 the unde;;rlying process IO promote the
most desirable u rbon fOrll\S (Sui 1998).
1.5 CONCLUSION
Th1 . .; chap1er ovcn iew of the conh.:xl on urb1n modelling and a theorelic.ul
n.!t well pracucai_I"CVICw.ofmodell ing techniques in urbnn dcvctorwnenl rcsc:H'ch.
Conttnuang from 1h1s ovcrv1ew, the fol lowing clt.lplers f ocus more o n urban model I Jns
on 1he cellular aulomata appro3ch. 111c structure of I he book is as foll ows
Chapter 2 firs! lhe cellular automata approach and us
1
n
urba11 modelling. ReStarch on urban d('\'elopment based on ahc cellular auromor.n I '\
surve}ed, and problems raised hy lhis approach nrc idcttified. o n
u.n( lerstandmg of urban modelling ond the applicmjons of cellular autornatH
Ill thiS .field, 3 i mroduces fuzzy set and ru z:ty logic app1oachcs in urhnn
an_d ll a ceJJular ttUIOilhlllt rnodeJ of llfhttn dc,cJopmenl
fuu) tr:mSIUOn A_ complete of developing a l<.'gic
from fun1ticauon of mpu1 data 10 trdr.silion rule seuing and fuU)
1nftrtnc1ng tO the defuzz&ficauon of 1\ presented 10 rh1s cha;>tcr.
4. 5, .and 6 npply and calibrate the fuzzy constrained cellular autornntn
model to the Jlrocess of urban dc\'CI\1prneot in the mct1opoJha n a rcn o (
AusL1'aiJa. In Chuplcr 4, the of l\1ctropolitnu Sydney in
1
cJn ..
leon c? 11 1b.an dcvclopmcn1 and urban plann ing a rc follo-....:cd by the con-
strucuon of a database for theapplicati<lf1 o( the fuz1.y constrained c-ellular au1omruu
of urban <ie.'tlopmenc The urb.1n de'tl<>pment of S)dncy during 1976-2006
1s ... maGIS. Ry usmg the S)dney database. the cellular dUtomata model
Ol is configured a nd ctlibrJled tn Chapc-er S "f hrough vigorous
und the n"'odel is used to simulate Sydney's urban developmen t
tn a cellular e nvnonmeul :lud to evalu3tc tho

of various factors on Syd

11
cy's
development. The results genera Led by I he model a re and
1n 6. Chapter 6 also presentS discussions on rhe. effccls of spaual scales on
the models perf<:>nn3ncts and OUtc-omes. fn add11ion. options for tbe future urban
development of S}dnc:y u nder various rrom 2006 ro 2031 are also simu-
hued and in this chapter.
Fi nttl1), conclusions cuc d rawn in Chopter 7 on ur I) a n modelling using the eel lu lnr
3UIOI'IH\ltl a.ppi'OflCh au(!, the.,: .flpp)icalion O(l he simultliC the! bclUal pTOC.CSS Of'
urhon de\'elopmcnL \Vnh lhcse concludma remarks, future reseurch direc
1
ions a.rc
map1><d out. Lhus bnnging the hook to a clo;u,..
2
/
Cellular Automata
and Its Appli cation m
Urban Modelling
Recent studies of nonlinear and opc:n s)stenH have led tu the understandjng or
citjc;) ns evolutionary and complex (Aileo 1997). are looked at as
self-organising S)!3olemi. which are remarkably suited 10 comr>uttuional
lion (Clarke and Gayda> 1998; Wolfram 1984). A cel lular nu1oma1on s churuc
tcr isc;i.l by phase transitions that can gcncnue cornplex patterns rhrough s jmp!c
transition ru les. As such, th is lcchniq ue Sterns ideally suited 10 modelling the
complexity of urban sys1cms (Cinrke and Goydos 1998; Bouy 1995). In this cl oUJI
ter, the: prlnciples o f <:cltuhu aut:>mata simulauon are and the appl ica
tions of1h1s simulauon technique in modclhns urban de,elopment are re,iewed.
1,uough lhis rev1cw, the progress and limit3.lions of 1'le cc11ular automata ror
urbou dcvelopmenL modelli ng are ident ified. leading lO the de velopment of a
fotzy cons1rtdned cellular au!Omala model 01 urban dcvclopmcnl in the follow ..
ing choptes.
2.1 CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODELLING
2.1.1 CELLULAR A utOMATA M oDELLING: A GAME
A cellular autonuuon (CA) is a d:scrcLc dynnmic syslern in which space is divided
into rcgulflr s paliul cells, a nd lime in discrele cell in the syt.
1em one of a finite number of SIRles The Stole of each cell i.s upda:c!d accordtng
10 local ruler., 1har s. the of a cell at a gl\en lime dcp..:nd> on 1ti0 own slate an.i
lhc Slalcs of ns neighbOuK a the prev:oJ.< IInne Slep (Wolfram
1 l1e ri!Search on the design and ap1'11 ica1 ion of cellular aulom:ua da1es t-ack 10
the dawn of digital compuuuio n. Ahn Tuting, a n E nglish Cir'.Sl
de111onstmted thai computers, through thci r son ware, could ern body ru lcs Lhtll
could " reproduce" them<elv"s (Bally 267). Slanislaw Ulam, a Polish-bo.-n
American matbcmaucu.n. studied the growth of cryscals 10 t he l940.s using a sirn
pie bttic:e net\\'Ork. AI the s:une time. John \'On Neum.mn. l,;lam's colleague fil
l.o> Alamos Na1ional I 3baratQry, '''"'working on lhc problem of self.replicatm&
While working on his desigtl, he Ralised t he genl difficulty of bui ld
ing n robot and the high cosls in lhe robot with a
o f pans' from whic h 10 bui ld i1s replico1e. Ulnm suggested thnt simple cel luln,
automata could be foun<l in sets of locaJ rules tha t generattd nwthcmatical patterns
2.1
Modclll ng Urban DevciQprn ent with CIS and Cellular Automata
in and space "-..here global order could be pro
duced !"rom local (Bnuy, Cou<:ltli$, and Eiche.u 1997, Ulam 1976).1flSpired
by Ulam, \'On Neurmmn co nstructed a <:OI1lJ11ex sclfproducing mach me with a two
dimensioonl cell space. cuch cell hav1ng 29 stntes thL'It work within n small four-cell
neoghbourbooc.l. lhal is, l he [;,.,t/Souoh/Weso/Norlh adjaccnl cells. This four-cell
neighbourhood 1S therefore ca11ctl the \'Oil Ntumann J\'fighbmuhood. von Neumann
proved that, cnathcm!tj..:a lly. \\iath his machine, any particular pattern or blueprint
would make Cop1CS o( f whhin the gi\ en cellular space (\.00
1966). von \\Ork SCI ali&ht the field in the 1950s. ici11aiing the scientific
sludy of cellular aulOinatn (Bany 1997) llo"e'er. owmg to its complexny. \'On
Neumann's machine was not run under a "re.tl .. iinlulation on any modern digital
co01p11ter (Lanslon 1984) .
The fir;:t important apphcauon of the cellular automata came. from John
Conway's of Life" (Ga1dner 1972). "Life" was constructed as two-
diulet\Sional grid .,ith two cell and an neghbourhood. The l\\-0
possible stales a cell can be m os cilhcr dead or lhe. The eighH:ell neoghbourhood
includes cells in the Easl. South. Wtst, Norlh, South .. west, Southea.st,
cast , and Nortbwt!:.l drections. This lYI>e of neighbourhood IS termed the
Neigl,booahood.
In Conw4'y's "Gallle of Life," o cell can survi\'e, d1e, or ghc birth in successve
geneattons accordin.s 10 the fo!Jowing rules.:
Survha.l. A li\'O cc::ll wi1h Lwo or three live neighbours f.Ul'VIves into lhc
nc:\ l gtueration.
Death: A Jive cell with thnn two or mote. them three live dies
either of it'l n o t of ovci'CI'O\Vdt ng.
Birth. A dead t:t;ll wuh cxnctl)' three live ncitt.hboluS becon1es alive in lhc
nc.:xi ll:enc.aLion.
Using th<:.se sintplc rules , the model is nblc w generate very complex Sttuctures as
differem cells die, SUI'\'IVC. or give bu' th in su<:cessive generations. Figurt:. 2. 1 pres
cnts a sample of sbnu l:.l tlon I'CS\tltS {:Cilti'OICd by the 1nodel. 1' hc ;Game of life .. has
been a \'ery potmlar <:cl1u ltH" tl\llOma.tn rnodd aftCI' the paper by Gardner' i ll Sciemijic
Amerocon (Gmdneo 1972).
CC)n\"' ays "Gumc of L1fc" hos drawn great interest from a whole geocration of
researchers. Counllcu uppronehcs been developed to explore the complex
i1y of cellular oulonlalfi thai from simple rules. In 1983, Stephen Wolfram
publ shed the first or Q. series or paper\ uwe.sugating the simplest
ccl1u1ur nutomata. which he rermed elemttu(lry atltomata
(Wolfram 20()2, 1994. 1983) J;:nch cell in 1he elemenmry cellular aulornala only has
tv. o 'a.lucs or states of either 0 or I, and the trans arion rules depend onJy on
1he n eare>t-neiglobour values. 1 he unc,pecltd complexity of I he behl\"oour of lhese
simple rules led WoU to suspec1 th:u complex it} in nature may be due to si1oilar
mcchanosms (\Volfr-m l994).
Cellul.u and Its Applicatiun in Urban Model ling
27
I
FIGUKE 2 . 1 A .simple $11l1Ulatton based ('tn C'oo"'ays ""G3mt of li(c.- (Black cells are li,e,
.and while cc:11s are ckad; r is lime step.)
However. studies o ncellularau(omata had no11aken off unLil Lhe 1990s when com-
puler:-; had become truly grnph1c and on compJcxity theory, selforganisation.
and chaos ha(l lc&ched fc\'cr p1cch (BBily 1997}. From the "jewpoi r.t of complexity
theoy. tompkx cnn be generated by w:ry simple rules: Lhey
can provide useful tcchrliQHC!S ror cxplot' tng n wide. range of fundamental jssuc.s
in dynamic5 and cvohuiou. As Wol1r41n1 show!), cellular au1osnata arc cons1ruc. ted
fronl nrmy ctwh simple, but togetht:r capable of complex
behaviour' ' (Wolfrau1 1984: 4 19). Cellular automata been applied
1
1rimarily i n
the physical and nnturnl such as physics, chemistry, and biology. and t here
also ::. n m11nbcr of APJl)i..:ntions to cities nnd spatit1l ecologica l swdies
(Bully 1997: hnmi 1994).
2.1.2 A SIMPL CEtkVI."" AIJ rOMATA Mor>tl
According lO Levy ( 1992). n ccllulnr nuooonaton is n self-operallng machine 1ha1
.. processes mformntiNI, proceeding logically, inc.torably pet:fonnir:g ns next
actiOu artcr applying ChUa I'CCCJ\'Cd frorn outside itself in lighL of instructiOnS prO
grammcd wuhin usc If. ( Levy 1992: 15). In a cellular automata system, space is
dhidcd IIllO regular cell\ rhc suuc of n cell is determined by the .state of the cell
itse.lr and or cells ln irs neighbourhood at a previous time step lbrough
a sel of locally defined 1tnnso1ion rules. The s10res of all cells are opdaled syn-
chronouo;ly. rt'le 0\t:roll behaviour of the system is determined by the comb1ned
effects o r all the local uunsauon 1ulcs Thus, the na1e of the system a:h-ances i n
discrclc time steps.
28
Modelling Urban Oevel<.>ptncnt with Cl S and Auto.,ata
2.1.2.1 Five Basic Elements of a Cellular
Ac:cordins co che foregoing definnaon, a e<:llular nutonuuon con>ists of fhe bl.Sic
e.lcmc: nts:
o. ct/1, "Inch" the b3sicspaual un11 m a ccllulnr spact. Cells in a cellular
autcmacon are ao-anged in a spatialcessellatton A grid of
cells '" 1he most common fom1 of a cellula automaton i n Jnodelhng
urbun gmw1h and land usc cha11ge. However, uther 111 nngemcnts, ;uch as a
onc.-dimcnsional ceHular aJtomalOn, have been c.h;seloped l O represent
I inear objects, such .as utban traffic model I ing (Nagel. Rasmu!.SCn, and Barrett
1997; l)iGegorio ct al. l996). The cell space""" 11 I so he '""cll01cd into other
as a honeycorab arrangement or C\Cu 1n lhrcc dimcn
SiOnS. l':'or t he th ird dimcnSiOII of (ttl Lll'b:ln cellular AU101\l3t01\ can
represem the building heishts in the urban built .. up cnvtronmcnl. llowe\J"er,
due tO rhe difficulty i n model design and those cell
mcnt$ are les.c; p<>pular or ycllO be; de,eloped in urb._m modelling practice.
b. srau. which defines the of the sys:m Euch cell can take only
one sratc rom a !ott of states at any one time n)e suuc can bed number that
rcp.eo;ents a propeny. In u!banb:lsed cellular .uJIOnlliO models, the slates or
cells may represent the types of land use 0< land CO>'tr, \UCh a< urban or rural,
Ot any spe-cifiC t)pe of land use; or it may t>e u..:d tOiqlCCSC:nt otherfcaruresol
rhe urban area. such as social categories of {tmmigrant vs. native
popul>tion) a< W3S proposed by Po1 rugah and Bcncn"'n (1995).
e. ThP nt;gJrbourl,ooJ. which is a set or cells wnh "'1uch the cell u\ question imcr-
3CI$;, Ill a two ...djmensional space, there Hte l \\0 h3SIC or neighbourhoods:
the ,on Neu1nann Ncighbourlood (four cells). wl1ich .nc1udcs the Nonh, Sou1J1,
&sl, nnd West neighbours of a cell in queSIIOn: oncllhe }/1004'e Neighbourhood
(ci,s.ht cclls), which includes the cells rJcfi lecl lll lhC von Ncumfuul neighbour
hood M '"ell as cells in t.he Nonh-west, NortlcflSI, Solllh CilSI, ttnd
directions. Olle' kinds of n.cighbotlt'hood.'i, such o, n neighbourhood wilhio
a crcle of a ccrtnin dis1ance from lhc cell in qucl\tion, fllso heen used in
tltb.lll modelling (e.g .. see White and Engclcn 1997,
d. Tht lfliiLSition rule; which defines how the State or one cell changes in
to its cum::nc Slate and tbc flf 1tS nc1ghbour.lo. This tS the kc)'
component of cellular autamata thc:sc represent lhe process of
the S)Stcm being n>odellcd. and are thus esscnuaiiO the success of a good
mndelhng praclice(\\'1\Jte 1998). For a strict cellular autcmoton, thetransruon
rules arc umform and artllpplied >ynchronoo;ly to all cells ithin the systetn.
Ho'4c"cr, a numher of modifJC.ations 111 defining trJnSttion rules have been
in the literature, which 'Ar:iJI be tn the foll()"'ir.g sections.
c. tlme, ''hk:h specifies 1he tempoml i n which a cellular autom-
oton exists. ACCOI'dlllg to tbc ddini1 ion of cellular aul<mHna, the states of al l
a" updated si01uhaneously at all itel':',tions over lirne. However, ihis
rc:,tricLion can be released by opetati ng the r.d lulnt' Olllomata model :u dif--
tempOral speed ford ilTrent us wa:. seen in Uljee. Engclcn. and
White ( L996) whee their model simulflled I he low lying nreas on a month1y
and the upland areas on a yearly basis.
CelluiDr Au tomata and Its Application .n Urb;u, 1\llOdtlli ng 29
2.1.2.2 Mathematical Representation of a Cell ular Automaton
Let S!, be the srote of a cell ;cf at the bcatton l,j at ti me 1 s: belongs to a ficite
number ofsraresof cells in lhc celluJar c;pace. Lee be 1he SUt!e of the cell at u me
1 + I. '1l1en. '
(2.1)
where !l,
11
rcpresents3., set of in lhc of cell xy S'
0
.t.is a set of
of cells .nx at 11me t , andfs a functtOI"'J'Cprcscnung a c;el of Lnnsilion r ules.
lftheeell ilset1 is considered as a member of its neighbourhood. then Equation 2. 1
cun be rcwritlcn as
(2.2)
Equmiun 2.2 c:tn he expressed in a verb31 fOI'Ill illu::;tratcs a generic principle of
the de\'elopment of tt cc:Uular automat(ln, ntuncly,
rF someth.ng happens in the neighbourhOOd of a cell.
Til liN somedting else "';u ha.rpen to the: cell a11he time step.
;\ cellular amomala model usually co:uists of o <,f tF-THEN" ([a!cmcms t.bat
imply spu1fie transition rules. For iogance, lhe model Game of Life" can be
as three .. lF-THEl\"
IF
THEN
If'
Tl lt)N
If'
Lhere are Lwo (lr 1hree hvc cells in 1hc Moore of
a Jive cell,
I he ceJI stays alhe in lhe f'IC;(I
1here are le$-S thau 1 wo or more 1hou clwee I ivc cells i fl thet-vioorc
Neighbourhood of a lh\! cel l,
the Jhc cell dies in the ucxl UCIICrftlion:
there are exac11y thrc:c l ive culls i n the Moore Neighbourhood
of a dead cell,
lh dead cell becomes alive in lhc nc;u genera{iOn,
Owina: to d'k! generic principle or development, c:cllulnr auromata Is "may sene
as a for modelling Cl'Olplex natural phenomenu in a wa.) that is concep-
tually dearer, rnore ar.d more comple'< than convenrional IDJ.tbematiC1l
y<tems" (ltami 1994: 30).
2.1.3 TilE COMI'tEX fEATURES OF A UTOMATA
One or the most attractive features of lhc cclJular 3UIOm;na is its.cap3bJJiry in gcn-
cr:mng comphcated behaviour and complex global r>nuerns despi1e its simptici1y
in model cons1ruct ion. For instance, even the simples! or "elementary'' oned imen-
Storml cellular with only bin:uy vnlucs nl c:tch site wns capable of exhibjt-
ing complicated behaviour (Wolfram J983). This (hill simple models such
cellular nulornata can potentially be rnndc 10 eproduce com pi:\ phenome na
( 1Vol lh 11n 1994)
30 .\1\odeiHng Lrb.m Development ''-ith CIS Cellular Aulomala
Ccllu lnr also the chnrncteristk: of an open system that is capa
ble of self This is a process in \.Vhich the system ilcrcuses its iotenlal
organis:uion m compJexiy wJtliOtJt bei ng guided or managed by an outside source.
Such a .. t\rganising sys.tem l)'pically displays cmcr-gem 111 'vhich OO\'C)
and cohc:R::nt sr.-ucrures and pauerns arise from turbulence and ch.&os (Go!dstein
1999j. For uostance, Wolfmm ( 1983) shows thnt wuh a "disordortd" onitial state that
was randomly chosen, a s1mplc one-djmensional cellular automaton is capable or
generating structure in the lbrm of many tritulg ular ''clcul'ings: The spon-
tanc<. .. us nppc.Brance of a simple example of
1
'.sclr-organisation"
(Wolfrom 1994).
Ano1her generic kature or 11.e cellular auiOil13..1a s as capabiluy to gcn<::rate self.
similar flJUtrn.s (\Volfram 199.;1). That is. as the cellular au:omata de,clopo'u time.
the pancrn' they generate ofcen exhibit a degree or rcgulo.rity in struc.lure, \\ hich arc
self-similnr (TorrelS 2000). Wi th this feature, ittndicatcs that portion) ot' rheevol .:ed
paUf"J' Il Of (l Slrm;ture flrC i ncliSiin.guishablc. rrom the whole; therefore, lhe
oflhe pa11ern is scale independent (TotTens 2000: Wolfram tnaking it atlraC
Live for overcoming tltc moditlublc area unil problem 1hal exits in mu::.t geographical
modelhng practices (OpenshR" 1984).
In &ldlltOn, ccllubr ou1omatn are dynamic and they tmend to elcmtnh
of the they represent :u a local scale. Through the iolemcuon with other elc
ments withm their 1\etghbourhood the auLomata are capable ol' nu:.dell tng
com1,1ex phenomena by seuing transition rules. As such, they can be used as
simp.lc mmhema1ical idcalismions of natural (\Volfram l99&).
2.2 CEllULAR AUTOMATA IN URBAN MODElliNG
development the bch:t"iour of a ecllui<Lr atltonuuon in "'lll}'
The space or an \ll"bttn area cnn be regardt:d <:on1b1 nation of a nun"'bt r or cells, each
ccl l tal.. ing 3 fl n..i tc set of pCossiblc swtes represent ins 1 he ex lent of its urban development.
The state of each ce11 m discre1e 1ime steps ..lCCOrding to somG local rules. This
SO:ItOn idcnufics the features of cellular automa1a Ill urban modelltng
wdl as carl) and conttmpor:lf) apphcation'- in u1 ba.'l modelling pr.a;,:ticcs.
2.2.1 A" U RIIAI\" CEllULAR A UTOMATA
Let us consider an imaginary Ctl y constrnc1ed 1 n a cellular space. T his city consisls or
a lWOd1mc:osional regular grid of n x n cells, 01 l:wd parcels. &tch land plrcel may
ba\'C one C'f l\.'-'0 possible su.nc'"; urban or nonuban. fhe neighbourhood n::prettms
a region lhtu unp.aclS on the dc'clopmenl of the parcel an The t.ransilion
rulci dctcrmir1e how a land parccJ uans1s from one srate to another. hence imply
ing the process or a de\'clopuent in the locnlc. These lran"iitton niles Ol'e usual!)
expressed l'S a set of"1P-THr1N" stmemcnls. thnt are intrinsicnl l>' simple. llowevcr,
these si mplc tules can gene1 tnc c.onplex paucJ'n'liJf developmcul.
\Ve firs1 assume uniform wcjal, ec.onom"'-. and environmemal conditions
lhroughoutthe whoJe region. That is.. apart rrorn a few land parcels that ate urbanised
(lhosc arc displayed to black on Figurt 2.2. 1 = 0), thoor Slate is presented
Cellular Automata and lb Application ul Urbdn Modelling
ll
t:5
'
t = L5 < ..,
FIGURE 2.2 A ce11ulnr ll.utomutagcnera!ed urban de\'e!opmem in" pktilt area. (Block cells
1 1 c urt'lan; g.rey ceU.s a1e uonu bar: 1 b time s1ep.)
as urtMn; aJI he rest of the parcels arc in a. non.urban sra1c. \\ith idenftcal soc
1
o--
economic and envionrnentnl conditions. 1'hcrerore. the l'neLor thal '.vil l dri \'C the
developnenl of land Jmrcels js the numbe1 of developed parcels in t he nd"hbou
1
hooct
of parcel in qucs1ion. implying the of any Jl ew urban mig ht
bo onOuen'od b) oJ>e uthntsed land Ustng the Moore Neighbourhood. the
cf ahe suue ot ('Aolteds js go\-emed by the foUowing ru!e.
Rule 1:
1 ....

l ltCICOrethrecormoredcvelnped parcels (i c., urban pa-cds)in the
Moo1-c Neighbourhood of n uonurban Jand parcel in qucst.ion,
the non-urban land J}.(II'Cd will be developed into an urban s1a1e.
Wnh rule, lhe gcncrn1es a of sccnutos or urban develop-
ment ac dtfkrcnt umc frames. whtch are d1splaycd in Figure 2.2.
However. m a real situ:uion, the-geogmphicnl condilioos v .. ithi n an area can ne\cr
be unironR For ins111nce, difference may exist in 1hc terrain of the land
In Ot'der to reduce I he in 1hc constwcl j on and opcro1ion of municipal
Llct lt tlcs such as scwa.gc and water SUJ)J)I)', Ul'ban deveJopmeru m::.y be rei:[rict ed
10
WJth a re_Jief of lc(S lhan 300m. lltcrefore. no d evtlopnlent wtlltake place
10
cells Wtl_h art-he( or more than 300m. l_n a new rule needstobe
1
m pie
men ted '" the: model to reflect the terra1n This new rule can be presented
liS anolher IF-THEN s1mcrncnt.
2:
IF
THcr-o
the relief of the landscape more than 300 rn,
the land pa1ctt will remain unde\eJOped (i e .. u stays as a non-
urban pan:cl).
32
,_

Modelli ng Urba1'1 Development wtth GIS d l"'d <.:ellula Automata

-
J(\(1'.tlldn'
- RAW owtf )00 meten
-
FICUfU. 2.3 Snnulattd urban deo;eloprr.ent \1. ilh u:nain coostrnint ((a) Relief (blsc.k: more
th:m J()(') m. MCC}; less than 300 (b) Urb3n (!e .. >elopmcm (bla..:k; urbJ1i grey: nOll
urh!ln parcel'; t' time step).)
\Vith bo th 1 a nd 2, the scena rio o f urbMl <le\CIOt>mcnt h1 thi(, a rea will ehange,
M shown in Figure 2.3.
add ition, variation may also iu the ne\\vork. Fo instance,
if tllcc a naJor road running through che c:ny, c:Jcvclopn1cut might be attn:c:red to
areas alont the road. In this case, another Liant;iuon 'ulc. needs to be added into the
mndcl to rcllctt the effect of suppon by the tmnspcu tatton to u1ban development.
This can be proscnlcd as 1he foiiO\\ing lf'-'1 HEN soaocmcn1:
3:
II
THEN
there arc one or rwo de\clopcd J>.>rccl< (urban) in the Moo"'
Ncighbouthood of a nonurOOn psrcct, and a here is a road run
ning through that parcel ,
the non-urban parcel win be dcvCifJJ)td into an urban state.
Asnu'll wjLh lhe implementation of this. new nile, the pattern ofdevelopmenl in chis
nrefl changcs
1
as 1llustra ted in Figure 2.4.
Usint thi s model I ing framework, more crfln$iuon r \llcs cfl n be adch.:d i nto the model
10 rcOcct lhc support or restrictions o f :t.OC11'11, ccouomic, or environmental
Cclluldf Automata and lts Applicalion In Urban 1\1\oddling
/
(t) btltl
-
, . s
tli tlO
IIIJ r un<kr .JCO l:lod.tn
-
(b) Go.d
- R .. 1
lt1rl
-Urbm
33
FIGURE 2.4 Simulated udxltl de,e:opmcrt cr.ln'portation ((a) Rel:ef (blacl.:
l'l'I<'I'C chm .100m; grc:.y-less than 300 r.-.): (b) Ro..td tnan$poc;tation. (gcey lioe); urban dc"cl.:.p
(t-lad: urbJ.n pared $; grey: nonurbJn 1. tune Mcp).)
fActors on urban deve.lopmeJH. The example hcl'(:.tllus unles a very simplifiedmOllel
Of Utl)an developmenl; bOWC\'Cf, il provides (1 generttl idea of how locally def'ine d
lntn&itlun rules can be implemented i n an rban cellular automata, and laow simple
rules be apphed 10 simulate the complex behavioUJ o f a n uIJan :>yslcm ir. a ceJ.
lular !\pace.
2.2. 2 ADVANTAGES OF ULLUlAR AUTOMATA FOR URBAN M OOlUING
Wnh lhc full de\eJopn1en1 Of computer &rAphiCS, geographical information S)'S
ltml\, rrnctals, and chaos and complex system" theoric.:s since the late 1980s, the
nppliconions of cellular automara to urban modelling are rapidly gajning favour
amons urban researchers. Tbis is because cellular automata are intrinsically c::pa
tml, which is inberenlly attracti\'c for their opplieation to geographical
(\Vh itt nnd Engelen l9 93). CeJtular a'Jtomntn nrc
11
Cspcc ially appcopriatc in urban
modelli ng where the process of urban spread is ent irely local in nature and the
aggregnte effects. s uch as growrh booms. arc fmttrgellf'' (Clarke and Gaydos
1998: 70 0). thal is, their behavlout is
11
by I'Cpetit i\e appUcation o f lhe
rules beyond the inioi al condioion" (Clarke and Onydos 1998: 700). Wioh ohcsc
34
Modelling U1bau Development , .... th GIS 3nd Cellular Automata
ur.dcn tandings. cellular outomata have been widely used 1n geograpbacal modeJ-
hng. especiolly m studies o( urban development (e g, Clarke and Goydos 1998;
<.:Iarke, Hoprcn, and Oaydo 1997; Wagner !997; White and Engelen 1997, 199-1,
1993; White. Engelen, nnd Uljee 1997; 1996; l!nmi 1988; Hillier and
Han>On 1984).
Apart from the intrinsic nature of celluhw aulo ma ta tOWllrd urbnn modc.lling, 1his
applonch also a IH.II Ii bt:l' of other adva ntageous rctH Urt!. that a re altraclive
to u rb::en nodellen. which nrc outlined below.
2.2.2.1 Simplicity in Model Construct ion
Compared to all other ulbJn models in Chapter I, !he de-elop-
mem of wban models nn cellular automa1a are 'cry suaixhlfotward. which
c.m be=. constructed on uuuithc understanding or the syslcm bt;i.og modelled
and Torrens 200'1).
As illustrated in Sec lion '2.2. l, an mban cellular outonatu model can be con-
as a simple. two-clirnenMona1 a Hay of cells with o ue of L\VO possible states:
or ural. The lrfllll)ition of ccJls from one State (rurnl) to a nothc;r (uban) is
based on a number o f simple rules. which can be imple me nted ;nto the model as a
set o f simple "JF-THEN'' StlUements. Howc\'er, based on [he sclf:.oganisation a1\d
.ll>rlf-n:production nature'i of the cellular automata, such B /j.tmplc design of the cellu-
lar autotnala can generate very compi.CJC spatia) panems when the system J,rogresses
0\11!1 ume.
The simplid1y and ntUihVC. noture of the cellular automata nc.n only umplifies the
pcUC:(!)S of model cons1rucuon but it also makes i1 easlcr ror modcllen to understand
the de"clopmem of the system tmd intcrptet thc model's This is because the
model mimics rhe wa)' in whch "we sludy, underswnd and describe the system and
phcnorne na in the re:ll world'' (Bcneoson a nd Torrens 2004: I I).
2.2. 2.2 Modelling S1>atial Oyna mics Lo Support "Wha t If" E<pcriments
Unlike u1ost conver11ional Ul' ban models that focus more or on the s.p1tiaJ p:n-
of uJban growth, ccl1ular-autoulala-based urbln nu')dels usua11y pay more
autnlion to SJmulating the dynamtc process of urbln dcvelOI)Inent and defining
the fa-e:rors or rules dri\ ing I he de\-elopmcnt. This is due 10 I he characteristic that
the cellular automata approach provides ways for dynamic modc11mg. Jl1s partie
ularly well sui red 10 modelltns complex dynamic systems C\JnlllOSed of13rge. num
bcrs o f indi,.idoal etemenlS. lly npplyng different tran'iitacm ru lc.:s, a model based
on ce1lular automau1 seeks to explore how the urh:m S)'Stem has been developing
al'lll how tbis system c ha nge$ u nder cc rwin rules or forces. T herefore, it p rovides
on envil'onment to supp<WI "what l r ' e xpe rime nts. ollows u&ers to explore
vorious pOSSible ruturcs a nd develop insights that may be Of' in urban planning
(White and Eogolen 1997) l'ol' instance. White and Engcletl (1994. 19 93) and
Wltitc. Engelen, and Uljee (1997) used cellular amomntn to simulute the proces
of the e\olu1ion of urban lo.nduse patterns in the urban area of Cincinnau, the
United Sttcs. Clarke, Hoppen, and Gaydos (1997) developed cellular autOm31a
modello .simulate the his1onc3l wban developmetn process an tbc San Francisco
Cellular AutOnl.lld and It, Applicatio n1n Urban Modelling
35
Bay area: the) also applied the model to predict the long-term urban grO\uh pro-
cess tn the Washington/Ualli rnorc: r e&ion in the United States (Clarke mnd Gaydos
1998). Wu ( 1998a,b,c, 1996) de>clopcd models bns<d on cellular auto:na<a 10
simulp:te the dyna.mic process o f landdevelopme ru in a (asL-growing urban region
in south-east Chinn. applications reveal t hat 1hc foci of celllar actomma
a te 1he ules lead tug to t he dc\clopment of t he systcu und t hc cxpcrime n.
tation on how rules affect the t:ehavioua o r the systc rn . The s pat ial pan ern
or strucLurc of the system is presemed as che result o f Lhc dynamic s patial devcl
o pme nl
2.2.2.3 A "Natura l Affinity with Rast er CIS
Jn modelling geogrupbacal phenomena and mos1 cellular automatl mod-
els are consuocted based on regular Sp.ttialtes.se11aliQn; these models are nlturnlly
r<lated 10 raster-ba<ed GIS. As shown by White and Eng<len (199-") and \Vngncr
( 1997), advantages come with too of Gl S unci cel lular automata model<.
Eren using a loose coupling approach to integrming ( irS and a cellular ar.ton1a1n
model, GIS can provide spatial dara 1.hat forrn the initio I cun riguration in a "ellull\1'
autotuala mod el. a nd the simulation r<:Sults can be returned to a GIS for ru r thcr
p rocessing, visual i<m, nod Morage. 1he appl ication o f cellul(Jf automata in
ling urb3.n dcvclopmcroliS vartually JITJ)OS$i ble without the dal a managerner.t cap:l
bihues of GIS"1Ciarke and Oayd<lS 1998: 700) 11lcrdorc. appli<auon; of tellular
automat:. in geograph)' are moSlly with a G rs.
Hov.'C\"tr. the intcgmuon of GIS wu1 cellular modch is more d:.an JU'-1
d3ta e..xchange. and visuali.satio:.. The similarit bel v.cen cellular allof'uata
and rnstea GIS the st roc:g potential (or n complete integrali01 of the
lv.o te<: hnotogics. ( 1997) cxam:ned the I"Jf integmting two
systems. He ii iJstratcd 1hc possibiltlies of cre.mi ug o li rn itcd cellula r auto;naca model
Within a GIS or impleme nting the amlyt ical ftmctio nal il}" of a OIS in a <ellulnr
.-.. utomata systeul. Jly menus of' a cellular a utommn machine ((;AM) as the amlytical
c ngmc for GIS opcnHions, \Vngne de,eloped a to ta ke the funcu;:.rla lity
ofbmh GlS and cellulor aut om ala machine. Tokcyama and Couclehs (1997 ) devcl
OJled a "'Y of egratlos cellular at.torr.ata and a GJS through a sea-algebra, math-
cmatical generalisation of map algebra capable of H variety of d'namae
spatial modeJs ar.d $p3tial data manrpt:lations a common Batey,
X.e, and Sun (1999) also developed a software program to 1mplemen1 OfS-bascd
cellular model co simulate urban dynamics. llteratu res suggeit ways
of a strong couphng of the two technolcsies. whicl arc under investig ation.
2.2.3 EARLY APPI.ICATIONS Of CELLUlAR AUTQ.\1,\TA I N UROAN MOI)ELLJNC
The appl icaLion of cc1Jular nuLo mal <1 LO mban syste ms can 00 lraccd back r.o (be begi n ..
n lng of the eel ITJinr autromora themsdvc!>- to the first auempl to build malhemat ical
models of urban s:ystem) in Lhc 1950s fBau y, Couc&e1i(., Anti Eichen 1997). At that
lime. although much iJitenuon had been paid 10 the construction of models of ul"ban
cnder the snciJI physical approach, some rtsearchers built nodeiJ
to Ullderstantl lhe br the (ormation ot urb.Jn spltial
36 Model ling Urban Development with CIS and Cellular Automata
Torsten onnovall<>ndffuson models were of this trend (Hagerstrand
1952). rrom rhcsc. ''iamodcls of nugration and of local sell lemont netwOfks
1965). the spattal growth of urban areas. and the: changes tn urban structure \\"ere
treated as diffc:rem ly()es of d1ffus1on proc.esses. In the construction o( the diffusion
11 10dels, a notion of the neighbo n rhoocl eJle"t was included ( I mgorstrand 1967. 1965);
lhis wos very close in principle to the cellular automata technology.
Jn the early t960s, with 1he nssistance of comput1' technology, nodels of urban
g1owth wen.:. de\'eloped under the beluwiouraJ appruflch ' vilh more emphasis on
indiVidu als' behaviour and their decJsion-mak i ng proccsl)c:S. One of these models
1>oesentod by Lathrop and Hamburx (1965) was developed in a cell-based fr ame-
.,,-ork. to sjiJlullte the development of an urban area in western New York State. This
model ''as rele ... -anl '" spuuco lhe prmciples of change m a cellular An01her
model. de,eloped by Chnp:n and"" coll<ague$ at the t:niVl!rsaty of North Carolina
111 modelling the process of Ia nO dcvclop;nenr, articulated modules where
changes in r; tates were prcdicu:d us. a function of u vnrtcty of factors affecting each
cell. some of which embodied ne ighbourhood effects (Chapin und Weiss 1968).
Th e appliciujon of cellula uuLOmata in uhan modelscn' ' 'e (rom theo retic-al q uan-
tilnLi , ,e geography. \ VaJ<.I o Tobler was lhc fi rst scholar to a ccll .. splcc model
si01ula1iog urban growth in the Detroit region (Tobler 1970). Using his fi r::a rule of
geography that "everyt hi ng is rela.Led to everything e lse, hut near t hi ngs are more
related than distant things" (Tobler 1970: 236), thls model nllcmptcd to relate 1he
PQI)Uiation growth of a cell (ra:pra:,..nting an area of one.<Jearee quadrilruerals of
lautu dc aad longitude) to I he populauon of Lhe same and neghbouriog ce11s in the
nnmedlarely preceding time period. Following thiS research, 'lllblcr bcgantoe.plore
the y. ay that general cellular automata could be m gco,raphic system). In his
famou> p"per "Cellular Geosraphy," Tobler ( 1979) .. cd the fi" 1ypos of
models of and <lescri bcd I he no1ion of cdlular
4
based
seogr.>ph ic al modelling (Fisu1o 2.5).
Within Tobler's five oF models. the geogrn1>hicol ( Model V) shows
lhnl l he land usc at Joc.at ion r.j is dt:pcndenl o n the land of t he model itS(}Ir and
al l tbe land uses i n the neighboul'hood of the location i,j.
(2.3)
''heres; is the land-use (urban, ruraL ... ) i.j is 1he
land-use category at the same locaton at some o1hcr umc; g:_..
11
. represems aH
llle land-use categories m the nc:il!hbourh<KJd of the loctliou i.j. T h1s model c::stab-
l i$bc d a dteotetica1 framework fol' lhc application of cellular auto nn.ta in geography.
and rnocl cll ing in panicular.
Influenced by Tobler, Couclol is (1985) developed model with 11 geographical
inltl' preta.Lion for Conway's "Game of l ife." I n 1hat model, Couclclis expla ined that
.a "live" cell could be 3n urban z.one wJth a threshold popuhtiou need ed lo support
a school. A z.one C-Oll ld reu.in ilS s.chool JlOj)lllalion base if tv.o or of che neigh-
bourmg zones also exceeded the thrc:.hold (survi,al): 11 would lose it> school iffourO<
Jnore of lhe neighbouring zones: an abo"""C-thre;;.hold popula11on. cr tf lhc popula-
lioo declined dr-asncally tn I hot \\hole nesghbourhood. suggcslin& abandonment of the::
Ct."ll ular Automata ilnd lls Application in Urb an
Y.ODI.ll - lttdcptndcrK modtl
J

tL1TI llj
MODEL II- dependtnl ml.ldd
MODEL J\'- oode1
I

1 t.th6.1o n r llbk in no
way llloOlt\l lu g f
37
riCUME 2.5 Graphic illustmtton of Tobler"s fi ve csinr. a geog:rathk al a rn)'.
(Adapted from iob'er. W. R . Ccllula.r geogcaphy. In u: Ed. S. Gale:
and G. 01-.oo. D. Reidel. Don!rcdn. T!>< Nah<riands. 379 86. 1979. Wuh pcrmistio:a.)
38
Modelling Uroan oc .. clopment with C IS 0fld Cellular Automata
:
1
re3 (deMh); and three dense Oae.s v.ould pruvide for a zone to reach
the neC<>ssnry populauon base ar.d thus ocquirc a><hool (bin h) (Qluclehs 198S).
Coucldb also

the limits of cellular modeh on geography and generahsed

ahc:or"Ctica11)' R cellular atnomau. fonnali$m that seemed c:ap3blt of
anteg(aun.g a Y.'ldc range: of advanced modds at both 1he k:\el of phenom-
ena :t nd ndivtdual spatia\ However, her 1nodd '"'as 1\0l understood as
!1181CIIltrtLfi of urban de'elopment but only .:s "metaphor)" of url>an growth
(Couelelis 1997: 165). 11 was not until the 1990> that Coooclehs identified how cel-
luln outomrun-bascd urban and mort els could moved from tbc realm
or in.suuct he metaphors to llt--:11 of potcnliet.Jly usefu\ qunntitattve forecasting tools
through gcncralisiog the idea of space withm tt ccllu)ur flutommon w proximal
and the operations or a cel lular automaton 10 a tnorc scno1fl l geo-algcbra (Couclelts
1997; Takeyaona nnd Couclcl is l997).
2.3 CONTEMPORARY CELLULAR AUTOMATA- I!ASW
UROAN MODELLING PRACTICES
Cellular autOill!la models luwe demonstrated thcar abtl1ty in a;cncroung different spa
1131 paucms I>Med nn locally d:fined uansouoo rules, \\hoeh ha"e a11noc:ed a lot of
interes11n urban research. Ho\\-evcr, to the standnrd cellular autOOtata model
thal defines us fh--ebasic elements. conttmporor)' celluiKr auwmatabased mod-
el long pracuces h"e broadly interpreted the definong char.>eteristics of tloe sundard
cellular "utomata, or relaxed some of its chtt11)C'tenstics to the requicemc::-ns
of a pnwcu1ar modelling problem. This new !iothool of urban mtxldling in lhc
1990s. when \lt'hile and Engclcn firsl de\'e)oped apphed a constnuned eeJlul:lf
autntll4tn model to simu1a1e land-usc chtmge dynamiCS (\Vhite and Engc!cn L993).
Si"cc then, rlifle1 em cellular auu:unaht models huvc betu developed to $imulale urban
growth lind lald-use/cover change. Tho;.: among cellular
n
1
u(')rrt01u. l'llodcls exist in 1heir way or configunng or mod11 )'lng the five bus1c elernenls
or u -.wndord cel lular autonlfliOi l, that is , Lbc sp:n1a lte.;;licllation of states of cells.
nc
1
J
1
bohood, transition rules. and time, as v.\!11 us the wo.y n_totlels rte calihtaled or
''aldmcd. This created new features characterising the of cellular aulomata
to urhnn modelling. which ore in the f110\\' lng sc:c11on.
2.3. 1 SPACL TESSHLAno"" fM>-" REGUlAR ro SPAliAL U:.ns
According to rhe strict rules of cellular automata. a ctllul:n space is tessellated mto
.1n aTTl\)' or regular cells; tbc spa1ial re.)Oiuuoru. or the vary tO very
Jarg" cell sizes. More recenlly. :cscarch also shows wregul:1r spahal can be
ap
1
,1 ied to model urban development. which may y1cld bcucr understandtngs of the
u1'ban aud l iS dcvc)opment.
2.3.1.1 Rcsular Cells of Small or l arge Resolution
For modcJ.: of spa1ial phenomena. scenarios rcsultin& fron1 the of_ space
al different scales vary (Figure 2.6). This is commonly regarded us" mcxhfiable
aceta uuH l)I'Oblcm (MAUP). Ope nshaw (l984} vrovldcs n COfl\jll'ehensive review
Cellular Auton1;.ta and lis Application 1n Urb.tn Modelling 39
{)
(b) (c)
FICURE 2.6 The modifiable area ul it problem affcc1ing spatial modelling. (Black pixels
8fC urban, &fey pixels ate 1he boundary bel""-c:c:n \lrbn n nnclnnnurb:to: white pixels arc non-
(a) An urban area sited in a regioltal COIIIt:Xt: (b) the nrc. tessellated imo cr::ls at
sm,Jll :ocalC"; (c) the :uell res.sellatod tnto tells at a scale. Tl-.is figure shows that differcm
p.mcru.:o of urban. fri nge. or ncn-urbaa cnn be ncl'.ie,ed by tessellating the: u:b3:\ area at d;f.
rueut scales)
of the earl)" research into the moditiatk: area unit probl-em. He pointed out lOOt
the MAUP 1S a p01ential source of cmx that can affect Sp3tial .studies thai utilise
uurcgnte tmla sources. Fotheringham and Wong (1991) explain that the n.odifi-
ablc area unit prob!em is esser.ually unJ,.n:di<:tablc: 1n its intmsuy and effects in
muhtvaflare Stati$tica1 an1lysis and h therefore a much than m
uni"nrianl or bivariant analysjs, Because ce1Juht 1 3uLOinatn models are based on
the tc).scHation of space into regular (or trreaular) cell >, a fundamcn:al question is
at '"hat sc.1le can the sp.ace be into spatial unils m b-.u ld up the model?
l'rnetically, lhe config: ura1ion of rhe spaual cel l sca1e ln urban modelling based on
ccllu1ar aulornala is pragmatic: no specific cousidenuio n has been ghen to the ces-
scllation of ceH scale.
In rhe early applicacio.\s of cel lulae ll utomuto in urban modelltng. t lte rcsolulion
of s:een\cd to be less an issue ol concern. usc of cell resolution was cithu
based on 1hc 3\'ailability of data or on the c()nvcnience for computation. Therefore,
the resolution of cells varies signafica11ly frolfl one npplication to anotti<:J'. For
in'itnnce, Whice ond Engelen ( 1993) \l'
1
:;c:d a 500-m cell resolution to leSI aconsuained
ccllu1nr nutornata model to simulate the urban land u!;e p..merns in four U.S. cues.
in::luding Atlama. Cincinnati. Houston, and Milwaukee. Later on. they modifl:d tl:c
model 10 1 "htgh-resolution scate .. with a '2.SOm and resolution 10 simulate: urban
land-usc dynamics in the city ofCinciotati, Ohoo (Whue and Engelcn 2000: \Vh01e
11nd Engcl<n 1997; White, Eoge\cn. aod Uljee 1997)
In other research. Wu (1996) used a18.S-m ctll re>olution blsed on the Land sat
imngery to simulate the urban land-use change in Chi na's Gua, zhou City. He also
applied a 200m cell sca)e to build a cellulnr ll ulomata model with rransitiou ruks
derived from muliicriteria evaluattOil otodel to simu lmc the Ul'ban development
wi1l11n lhe same region in China. However. Lhc rcasort for choosing a coarse reso-
lulion of 200 m v ...as lO save computatinn til11e; the1e wns no justification on the
selection of chc different cell nor were cJu; gcnermed by the models
con1pRrcd nnd
40 Modelling t.;rban Dlvcloprf'lcr)t with GIS Cellu lar Automata
Another cellular 1nodcl developed by Clake and used a
basic grid of 300m <:ells to su11ulme the urban growth in 1he San Frar:cisco B.a>
area. I fowever, wh le applying the model 10 the \Vashington!Batumore region, cal i
brc\tjorn: Y.t:rc:. \ 1 ndertaken at d 1 rrcrcnt cell :;cole:,, including 2:10 m, 420 m, 840 m. and
1680 m (Clarke and OuydU$ 1998). Their results h<>'" thar, although not all n1les or
factors arc sensuhe to the dwngc. or the cell scale, the scale of cells does ha\c an
impact on the ret.ulrs of 1hc smulntion, an relation to cc::rrajn factors. such
as road and >lope. Tiley susg.,sted lucran:hical approach in calibrating the model
by .. first using coarse dnta to the sc:aling nature of each parameter in a
d1fferem Cll) \elllng, then scalma up once rhe data ranges are found- (Clarke
and Gaydos 1998 710). n111 tindang "as supported by Samat (2006) wbo idcnaified
that the cellular au1omara model produces reahslic urban fonn only up 10 a certain
range of spaualresolutaon. 1he s:<:lec:lton of cell scale 10 em:a!te that lhe
outp ul produ<:ed maaniDinS the 0\erall aecul'3ey of the model and morphology O(
urban a1eas.
r-unhcrmore, Diet rei and Clarke (2004) stud1e<l how lhe change oi spanal resolu-
tion affects the pa.n_mere.r setung o( 'he cellular autornata model and 1he outcomes
of Lhe model. 1l1eir rcsuhs th.1t., by calibrating the model u.s.ing finer spatial
resolu1ion d:ua, the model will gcnenue a different of parameter space. which
may result in diff<:rcnl model outcomes
Oaher rcoarchcrs, such "' Menard and Marceau (2005) and Kocabas and
Dro.gicevic (2006), 11audied lhe comhlned impact o f the l) p&lial scale of cells and
neighbouliiOOcl toile on the modcl'.s p::l'l(>nnancennd outcome. This will bed1scussed
in Sccuon 2.3.3 under "l"eighbouhood definitions."
2.:1.1.2 Using l rroguiM Spnlial Units
All hough il is typic:ul to usc rcs,tllllr, h<unogeneous grids in
cellular n'lodds. also suggested the use of irregular
spatial un ils in 1.1rbu u 1nodel ling (Ych nnd l.i 2006; O'Sullivan 200lt \Vhite and
2000; Couclclis For insaancc, While nud Engelen (2000) pointed
out thal "1 f the spncc tuudclltd is already subdivided into functionally ret ..
evant units thAI npp10ximntc t he sculc {If the gn rl, then these units will provjcte a
better representation vi' the SJ'H'lCC than will grid cel ls'' ( White and Engclc: n 1000:
387). Howcver
1
largely Uuc 10 the comphcauons in the definit10n of the irregular
ne1ghbourhood nnd the comp\ltutiono.lly i ntenSt\'e operation required. only a few
literatures round tO have actu:llly implemented trregul:lr spatial units in t heir
urban modelling practice. On< of $UCh examples 1s by Bany and Xie (1994c). who
emptO)cd cada.,trol units to model change in a suburb:an area of Buffalo.
Unh cd Stmes.
AnOihcr hacraiUrc by Shi and Pang (2000) presented a Voronoi-based cellular
automata. model to the d)'n!lmic interoction\ among spatial objeclS. Similar
to a spatiftl model. the Voronoi spa1ial model was de.signcd to represent
spataal objects as ' 'eclor object\ n,e model considered capable of ssmulating
the among point. ltnt. and polygon.;; with trregular shapes and sizes in
a dynamic S)Mcm: il can also operate on any ronn of sp:mal unu. such 3S square
Ccll ull'lr AutomDLJ and hs Applkiltton in Ufban Mf)rlelling
41
01' lrinngulnt pixels. or rettl ObjeCtS su:h as the locat ion of a fire. station. st:ee1, or
lond parcel> (Shi and l'ong 2000). Compared to ahe s aandard cellular automata, the
\
Y'!!:2.n.2i:,ba.sed ce11ular nulomata is CQn!;idert d to be "a more n.uuraJ and efficient
rep""";"nlalion ofhumn knowledge over space" (Shi and Pang 2000: 455). f-lowever.
, the spatial units or generated 1hrough the Voroooi approach do 1\ot. rcprc-
(
sent the actual uniCS such as caJastrnlland parcels. or urban adminisuath-e
units such as p<btal code areas or lrocts ns and Oragicc.:vic 200;).
A recent study by StC\'CR"\ and Dragice ... ic (2007) acellularaccomata
model usang an lrrtaular SJ)ACial structure W1th high spatial and temporal m>Otutions
to sJmulale urban l.:utd-u)t: change. FClturtd the iCity model, it uses bigb-rt>$0-
lution: land-usc data \\lth the spaunl u1its composing tregulul) sized and
parcels in \"ector 'true lure The model rt.suhed in a better confonnuiou of
resultS to aciUal landuse boundo.nes. Howc,cr. tbeu model also lacked
cornpuuuionalcrficicney. n:sulung in long processing times when running the model
e'en for a small area (Stevens and Drogicevac
2.3.2 BINARY At.D MULliPtc TO CoNTINUOuS Cr1.t STATtS
or 1he cellular auaomata ll>odels of urban growrh configure the of cells
using land-use or land cover lype. For While and Engelen (2000. 1997.
1993) defined 0 Of five )ttnd USC: States, ranging ffOfl1 (the Jowes1
s1a1e), housing. andumy. 10 commerce (1he highe<t stale). A cell can only de'"IOV
rrom t-t lower state ton h1gher (,tl:lte, indicating growth of Lhc urban areas.
0Lher researchers used binary stares to the process of non-urban to urban
con\'Crsion. The StAle or non-lll'bnn or urban csn be defined in terms oflar:.d use (Li
and Yeh 2000: Clarke and Ooydos 1998: Clarke, Hoppeu, a nd Gaydos 1997: Wu
1998b.c, 1996): II can nlso l>e defi ned b.scd on oaher s patially distribuaed variables.
such as populmion Ol' other SOCIO-economic indicators (Wu 1998a). A
mon feature of these 1nodels is 1 hm1 he eel IIi in n c.cl lula r space r.t defined as discrete
slates: 1 he1c f.:XISts n cleo,. boundary between each of the Slates. However, in pract ice,
this sharp boundar)' bel wet II cel l be diffi ..: ultLO idenLif)'
To O'.'ercome tlds proble m, research nho <: llfl\VS 1he use of a continuous ce.JI state
based on l'ua.y theory to simulrne rhespmia1 dynamics of urban growth (Liu a nd
Phinn 2003).11lis will he dt!iCU<: SC:d fu rther 111 the followi ng c hapters.
2.3.3 NEIGHoou.,.ooo Om.,HTIONS
2.3.3.1 Action-al->Distancc" Neighbourhood
According tO st:.nd.ud ctllulnr muomau rule.;;, the state of a cell is determir.ed bv
the state of lh<: c:c; ll imlr nnd the SHUe$ of cells ln its neighbourhood at a
ume Slep. This neighbourhood i< dtfineJ os cell Immediately adjacen110 ahecell i n
quesuon. such as the von Neumann Ncilhl>ourh<\0<1 and lhe Moore Neighbourhood.
[\ery chnnge in stftlC must be locnl Therefore. only cells adjaeenl tO the central cell
ha\'C an on the transuwn ()(lite suuc of the central cell. to other words. there.
is no in a cd Jul:lr automata model (Bany. Cooclelis.
and Eachen 1997: 160).
42
Modelling Urban Oevelopuwnt wflh GIS and Cel lular Automata
r
'
4-
::;:
'u :;.
1-
j.
l I
,r: .
1-+

H
,_I""
1..

-. I
(a)
f i C URE 2.7 L:ugc nei.ghb()'.uhood si zes used by White. und ( 1993) 3L\d Wu ( L996}.
((n) A cu-culnr ncighbou,hocd of 113 cell. propO>cd by While and Engc'cn ( 1993): (b) a rect-
angular neighbourhoo<l of 110 cells propOsed by Wu (1996))
Ahhough most cellular automata models or \lrtmn growlh sull follow IbiS Str-icl
rule when defining a neighhQurhood siz.c. wme applh:etions ha\'e incorporated
"ac1ion-at-ad1Stancc .. in their neighbourhood dcfinuioru.. ror inslance, while mod
clli n& I he c'-o!Uiion of urbJn land-use 1ypes, While and Engclcn (1993) defined quite
a lc_trgc neighbourhood s.&7..e comprismg 113 celh withm of a six-ceH radius
(hgure 2.7a). The distanca::-decay effect w3s l\I'Plicd 10 these neaghb ouring cells:
1he further the distance from 1hc cent ral cell m ques1ion. 1hc less the influence these
neighbouring ce11s. had on the cenlral cell. The c ity grew, a nd ils strut-LUre evolved
at\ cells \\'CI'e converced fron o ne s ta le to anolhcr occordtnS 10 the tra nsition rule.
which was a runction both of cune nl land in the l13 ce lls and of
the inl1ercm suitab ility of 1he cell for t:ach po.ssible lond usc.
To simulnte the land developme nt in a fast gruwing I'CBiOn in China using a lin-
auiscic cel lulor lllllomata model, Wu (1996) employed" rcctnngulor neighbourhood
or co 5 x 5 cell , wh ich included 120 cells surroundmg the cell in qucslion (E'igure 2.7b).
All hough 11 is commonly agreed that inHucntc may be produced by cells at a dis-
uul<:e, 1he Jlroblems of how far 3 \ .. ay these cells arc m order to inlluence the central
cell and how 1mportantlhis inHuencc i!- to the lmMauon of states remain uncerlain,
and 11 further research.
2.3.3.2 Neighb o urhood Siz e
Sirnilar to the construction of cell the selection of the nc:gbbourhood size as
3lso pragmatic. Accordul& to the theory ofccJJuJar au1omatn, the global behaviour of
"'self.orgO- nisi ng syste m is go,cerned by locally defined transition rules. Fol' a n urban
;:1 rundamento.l question js to whM C:)(tenL Ufbttn development is a local ly speci
ficd ptocess (Wu 1996). Some factors, such as s lope nspect ond height of land, affect
urban dcveiOJ>nle nt in asmaJl a rea base; o thers s uch 11 rbn n p lanning and the uans
portntion net works are global controls ovel' lhe whole nrcn. Jo..forcovcr, developme nts
Cel lular Au to ftlata and Its AppiH::iltion i n Urban ,\1odclllng 43
m information technology and telecC'Innnuu<:atlons hme had fur.dllnenlal comc-
quencts for the pantrns and prcxesse! cl urbdn change thfoaghout the "-orkl (Herben
and Thomas 1997), Tbcse fac1ors affm urb.ln de-.lotl1r>eut in a univt<sal way.
In prac1ice. both small and large neighbourhood itcs ba,-c been apphed I<> IJlOdcls
of urban dcvelopmenL f'or instance, Cluk.c end Ga)'dos (1998), Wu (1998a,b.c, 1996)
and Clarl<e, Hoppen, and Gay<los (1997) ui>Cd 1he Moore Neghbourltood, which is
<.mAll. u it only consists of nine cells iocluding the cell in question. As for White and
l:11gclcn (1997. 1993), the impa<l of 1he 113 neighbouring cell< on the cen tral
cell in question vad es based on 1he rule, thrt L is, celh that arc closer
ore wetglu ed Ill Ore heaviJy. \Vhereas cells that arc furth er away may carry light or no
wcighttOwClrd the trans ition pote ntials. rn addition, the w..:ights may also be
I'CIJlrcscnting a n o.tuactive e ffect, o r negnLi ve 1f' 1wv :-,l.atcs a rc Jncompatible (\Vhilc
3nd Engclcn 2000; Enge len e t a l. 1999: Wh ite 1998)
I (owevcr. no partic1.lar validation on the size of ' he in cellu-
lll r uuLOmfllllbased urba n models has been explored. MO)l applications o f cellular
models in urban research employ o lara;cr neighbourhood size appli
<:dtions Hl the natural sciences (Batty and X1c 1994c). 1'hts is probably because of
1hc cltrficuhy in justifying lrltnsition rJie.s in bchavtoural lcrrru (Wu 1996) and lhe
t"<ISicncc of distance-decay effects of the neial1bouring cells 10 the central cell in
qucs1ion (Wu 1996; White and Engelt'l 1991. 1993).
2.3.3.3 Neigh bourhood Type
Rcsnrdless of lhc ize of the ncighborhond, 1l1e 1ype of neighbourhood also hos
impa.cts on the behavaourofacellula1 L1 and Yeh (2000) s h ow
thru the use of a l'ectangular such as the Moore Ncdghboorhocd,
mit lll produce s ignificant disto nions between ctlh. tu d i fl(!rent directions from a ctr
cular objccl. Jn rat t, ov.: ing to t he rltSiii!lCedt:Cit)' <:(fee l of 1he neighbouring C\! IJS on
the C(ntrnl cell tn q lleSiio n. the applicd\ion o f n rectang u lar ue ighbO\trhood in a e el
lulnr fllltOnlflltl model can produce distonion on an ohj ect or any s hape (Figu1e 2 .8).
FICURl 2.0 Distortion produced by a reclanguJ3t ntighbcJUrhood iC {dark coloul') is the
pcOC)$ing c:dl. For a recumgutar nc.ighbourhood or7 x 1 cell$, the e((ecl ot c;cJI A (one of tt.e
whltc-coiOllfl'd cells) on lht: proceS.!)ing cell (C) differs from thnt of C(':ll B (one of lhc grey-
coloured cells). although both A a nd 0 are in the :\-lune r('l"' or (hi} ncighboutln)Od. This is
beCiluM: I he distances from lhe centres of A oa B to I he p1occs.sing cell C arc different }
44 Modell ing Urban Development with CIS ,lfld Cel lular Automata
distorhon is espedatly si_gnjficaot a l3rge neighbourhood size applies.
\\lti<:h can be diminatc:.d by ap-plying a circular nesghbourhood.
2.3. 3.4 Irregular Neighbourhood
Sim1br 10 the U!'IC of irregular cell scales. lhe h1e1ature shows the applicatior
of 01n irregular neighbourhood scale in e-cllulftr aulomnl 3baiO:ed urban models. For
int;t.anct. in the Voronoi based celtular automatt\ model c.lc\'elopcd by Shi a nd P.ctng
(2000). the neighboul'ltood objecls are defi ned as those Lhat share common Voronoi
boundflrics tO the sp:uial object i n ques1jou wi1h1n o cen.run The influence
of the neighbouring objects cao be defined as'' foncl ion of tle diSIA.nce bel ween two
objects. and a '"dist.ance-deca; effccl c nn be rcncctcd in the transition ru les
(Shi Hnd Pang 2000: 462).
l n the cellular automata model developed by a nd OrAgicevic (2007), [h ree
1rrcgul.nr cellular neighbourhoods \\-ere propo.s\:d and imph.:mcnted into !heir iCily
nodel. The adJncency neighbourhood 1ncludes :111 polygons thm share a common
cdac or point wlth the polygon in the tleighbOllr'hood includes all
polygon rhm fall completely or partially "'irhin n ttrlnm distance or rhe pol)l:on
on que-<laon; and rhe clipped distance neighbourhood includes all polygons thai all
"-ithin a certain distance of tbe polygon in CJueSIIOn tht pOrtions or polygons
pGrtially wi1h1n 1he same distaxe of the polygon. Compared 10 the cell based regulsr-
neaghbouohood rype,rhe irregular neoghbourhoods !UII Millo land parcel pro><imiry
unctions (Sie\cns and Dragi<:evic 2007}.
2.3.3.5 Sensitivity Analysis
Owi ng lO the impact of neighbourhood scale a nd type on the behav-
iour Hnd outcon1eS of cellular aorOJIHi ta wodels, son1e rcsenl'ch litermure reports on
thci r scnsidvuy in rclation_tg_tl)c spalla1 sculc 11ncl nt:ighbourhood configurations.
Ft'W i1\st:wcC: lCOCabas an_l.Dragicevic.{2006) used the 1lip, .Kappa
i ndux with coincidence matrices and spatial fi Ctl to syste matically evaluate
the impact of the neighbourhood size and type on the heho.viour and outcomes o f
the. cellulnr nutomua model A rectangular a nd n c1rculur neighbourhood type were
selected with 9 simple and 45 coroplex neighbourhood corl Rgurauons, each at sp.:uial
rc:.olutions of 50. 100, 150. 250m. rc.suhin& In u IOtol of 432 simulalions. Theu
results SU!lgesr that rhe cellular automata model respond> dircrcnlly depending on
rhe spoaial re<oluuon as well as rhe neoghbourhood size and rype. Specifically. lhe
ccllu lar automata is 10
1. Changes in Sp:lt.ial scale when neighbourhood si1c 1ype are kep. wnstarJ
'2. Changes tn spa1ial scale when neighbourhood siz.c is kept constant but
ncighboo1h00d type J> bei ng changed
:3. Changes o f neighbourhood size when Sp!llial SCflle nnd 1he neiglbourhood
type nrc kcpl constant
4. Chnnges of neighbourhood t)' JlC when spaunl scnlc is kcpl constant bm the
neighbourhood size is beiugchange<l nnd l)mgiccvic 2006: 950)
Celluhar Au tomata and Its Appl it::atiun lr1 Urban Modelling 45
Other rewarch by Menard and Man:cou (2005) reported rhe combmed
or rhe >patio I scales of cells and neishboorhood. Their rc.>carch demonsrnred Lh!tr,
all hough the sinwlation results of a geographkal cellular auromata model an sc:nsi-
11\0I\)'b<lth rhe cell size and neighbour!KJ<>d scale. rhe choice ora neighbourhood
less inftuemjal on simulation JeSuits: i1 become:. more sen.suive ool)' v.he;:n u
la'11SC8Ie neighbourhood (e.g .. a circular ncoghbourhood of approximately a live
cell radius) is used. or when a mediumsi7.ed (e.g .. a circular neig.h-
b()urhnod of an app,oximatel)' two-edt ntdius)h. appltcd iu combination with a Ja1ge
cell si?e 1000 m ( Menard and Marceau 2005).
However, the mec hanism unde rpinni ng the Sl!lec:tion of the neighbourhood scales
and chc configurat ion of a neighbourhood scolc wilh which chc cellula r automatn
1nOcl els con generate scenarios lhat best mimic lhO acLUill process of urban c1evel_op-
mcnl l:>ti ll need to be addressed.
2.3.4 VARIATION IN TRANSITION RULS
The core compone nt of a cellular autommll nodcl is the t ransit ion rules that rcpre-
1he logoc of rhe process tx.ing modelled: rherdore, rhey determine lhe spaual
dynamics o the system (White ar.d Enselen 2000). The fundamental role of the
rrans:non rules is 10 serve as the algonthms 1 hat drh-c the cbnnge of cells frc:m one
stale to anochet CYiet rime.
Various approaches have been employed 111 defining the transition rules of an
urb:ln cellular automata model bastd on the undcrs1anding of an urban syszem and
t\'01utton from dtffet-ent J>erspeeti\'(:), rc)ultjng Jn d i ffcrent types of urban cellular
nutomtun modtls. These approaches from the very sirnpJc to the very com-
plex ones. For instance. the model developed by BaHy
and colleagues for modell ing the dynnmic urbttn growth is a celhllar automaton in
notuJC, nnd the rule applied in this model is simple: u vocan1 cell wouJd convert to an
OCC\IJlk:d one if it is within t.he neighbourhood (lr a n ('CCUJlicd cell (Bauy. Long ley.
nnd Fonhcrlngham L989). Howeve1', {)I her url>nn tnodcls based on cellular automata
COII'Ibuled ru les to si mulate Lhc complex bchuviot.u' of the system. This sectjon
reviews urbtm cellula r 3\.l tomata models in t he llterorure with d istinct features in
dcfinmg the transition rules.
2.3.4.1 Cons trained Cellular Automata
n,e cootemrw>rary cellular automal.a model of urban gro"'rh .started with research
I by While and Engelen, who lirs1 developed and a1>plied a conmained
auroma1a model 10 simulare land-uS<: chan& dynamics (Whire and Engelen 19'J3).
!Jnlil..e the standard cellular automata where the devetopl'nent of ctlls io each state
determined endogenously by the transiuon rule41, then n1odel took into account
the cqr.str.aints of mber factors. i ncludng the qualicics o f Lbc land, the effects of
acrivities, and the aggregate level of demand ft'r eacb cat
or lund. n1crcfure, their rnodcl conststs of two pnns: a macroscale model and
rt micro.scale model. The macmscale model develo ped exogenously to the cel-
11or t'uuomntn model based on fac tors a:. populAtion a nd socio-economic stnllts.
I
'
'
46 Modell Ins Urban Ocvelopment with CIS ;md
.. model genewtes cont;traints \'<tlh d1ffcrent land-use consumptions that v..ere
appl ied l<J(;OII trol the amount ot cel ls hut mu)t be: in acenain state, so that the rnodel
can achic\'C a rcal t)tiC of the system being nodellc: cl.
At the micro scale, a set cf transition potentills representing the inh<;:rcnt suitabil-
ity of a cell from its current Sttne into 01her land u;:oes was estimated. The transltion
potentials wece calculated m n tuncuon ot a number of factors mcludmg the acces-
ortbec:.clltu lhe r()ad network. the mtrinstc suitability of 1he land, tbe zoning
statu>, and the imp:>c:t of the neighbourhood on the cell for a particular land use. All
cells are ranked by 1hcar transtuon potentials, and the state o f each cell will
be dtanged lO lbC State (Or which It haS lh potemial. H O\\'C\'e(, lhe number
or c;clls in each state 1$ de1crm1ncd or by the maeroscale fiacxicl;tiCiicc
the name constrained cellular automata model. The transition of cells
the n&:'lLed cen and proceed\ dO. n"":ard. \VI'k!n a suffictem number of cells
of" partioular land U>C been achic,cd, the potenlJ31s for that land use are sub-
scquen11)' ignored m detemu ning celltrnnntions. Therefore. some cells may not be
en rhesuue for which they ha'e che will remain tn their
currc:nt sta.tCl. Such a transi1ion rule is applied to all cells at a11 i1era1ions (Ecgclen.
White. and Uljee 2001; Whne and Engc1en 2000).
The constrJi ned cellulAr n'\Odel prO\'ides a framework for 1ha1
integrates cc1lular automMla wilh other and CO\'ironmental mOOcls,
and that operates :lt both mtcro and macro geographical scales. 11 also provides a log
tea I 1 mk between the laditionrt 1 tOpd()wn approach apphed in urban mode!l ing and
the c urrc nL boltolllup on ccllulur automata theory. The constrained
cellular auLomata n"lodCI h.ts evolved nnd been applied to simulate land use change
m a nu111ber of su1cc i1s flrf'i l <::oncelltuilhsariot in 1993 (White a nd Engelen
2000; 'While untl Eugclcn 1997; f;ugd e n, \Vhilc, futd Uljee \Vhite., EngeJen,
and Uljce 1997; ct al. 1995: White nnd Engclcn 1993).
2.3. 4.2 The SLEUnl Mo del
C1a oke und colleagues (Ciooke, 11oppeli, nnrl Gaydo< 1997) develo ped a model
lO ..simu1alc the pro<.:cSS or urbnn s rowlh bused Oil cellula r nuromata. The utt mc:
of the model came from the six lniHU dtttt\ layers, namely Slope, Land cover,
Exclusion, UrbaniRrtllon, ' l'ranspqrtation. Hi llshadc. Hcnct:" thC mOOel Ts
naroed SLEUTH. The model urb.ln p.111errlS through the applicauon of
fou r lypcs of urban lnnd-use chllngc: sponwneous grow1h, new spreading cemr"e
growth. edgtJ growth, a nd roJ.d inllutnccd g ro...,.th. A.spomaneous groH-th occurs
wheu a randomly chosen cell fa lls ciO'iC enough to an urbanised cell. simulating
the inllut ntc of urban areas on thtir surrounding land: a ttt\t. spreading teJttre
spreads outward frorn existing urban centres. repre(e nting:the tendency of
citi es to expand; an tdgt growth urb;tnlscs cells that arc flat enough to be dcsir
able locatioos for de,elopment e"en if the) do not he near an already established
urban area: and a rondwfl:unrttl gro"Ath urt.anised cells to de, clop
along the road network.
The four types of urban growth are apphe, l <equenuolly during each growth cyde
and an:: controlled thrcuah the anterar:1ions ol fi"e gro"' lh coefficients: diffusion,
CelluiM nncl llS Appli<:alion In Urban Modelling
47
br<cd, spread, road g r(lvtty, and slope (Cinokc, Hoppen,and Gaydos 1997; Clarke a nd
Gaydos 1998). TI1c fir>1 four coefficienu describe the g rowth pressur< in the urban
system. For in.stancc. the dtffu'liOr'l coefficient de termines the outward dis
persil,y nature of (he d isrribution; the breed coeffi cient spe{:ifies how Jikely a ne wly
generaled (k(ached scultrncnt is bcgtn us own growth the spread coefficient
cunuols how much diffusion cxp::uuion occurs from existi ng and the
road gravity f3Ctor denotes a he at unction o( new seulemenrs roward and alot1g
to srowth 1\ lhrough the s-lope which
the effect of sttcp on resut::r111g cfe,elopment. ln addition, resistance is also
applied through an duded dau layer that idenufic.. areas that arc wholly (e.g.,
water or parks) or pauially (e.a . n:strictJve zonmg) e'<duded from All
fh-c: coeflicicnb .1rc cuhbrtucd to comrol che growch rate so that growrh v.ill not
bc.;omc umasu.all) hagh o r low. '11e 0\crall ra:e of urban gtowth is the sum of the
four types of growth.
The Sl loUTI1 rnodel irnp!em<nrcd phases: ac.>hbration phase, tn
which the hisloric dc,dopmenc llends and pauerns. and
a prediction pha.se, 1n Wh1dl hi\toric trtn<b are pro_Jected into the future. 'TbG mcid"Ct
can be chc nonootJrban to uban conversion: it can also model the
o( muhiplc h'tnd use change. nlC model was first and applied ;n
the Ssn Francisco Bay nreo tn the United State< (Clarke, lioppen. and Gaydos 1997)
and subscqucnLiy to 1>rcdict ur'b:ln growth 1n San 1-"tancisco and the \Vashington/
Ballo more oegion (Clarke nnd Oa)dO< 1998). Si nce then, the model has been cali-
brated and wic.Jcly used 10 model urh:m growlh lhroughom the various regions ofrhe
United States and the wot ld (Oiolte1 nnd Cla rke 2006, 2004; Syphard, Clarke, and
Frankl in 2005; Jont7., Ooet1, nnd Shel ley Leao, Bishop, a nd Evans2004: Yang
and Lo 2001; !;ilva a nd Clorkt 2002)
2.3.4. 3 Fuzzy ConslrainNI Cell ular Auloma ta Mo dels
Apa rt from defi ning lrnnsition tulcs with deren11in ist ic .specifications. rescarcb
also shov.s 1hn1 crnn$itit'J n ru les of a cellular tulomaton may not necessarily be
rcMricccd IO dclcnnjnislic (orms More Hcxibility in defi ning the rules. such as
the applica1ion oi and iuzzy logic, has been tested, impJy-
ing thai the complex bc: hov iour can be simulated th rough the appropriate
detluilietn or I he rules nn fully set theory (Liu and Ph inn 2003:
Wu 1996: Whnc and Engele n 1993). As urban de,el opmem is tb< result of both
ph}sicat nnd human behaviour, which are both
acterised h)' uncerra int) ttnd I he applications o f the fuzzy set theory
and fuzzy logc conrrol seem :utrncthc in defining the rules controlling urban
de,clopmcnt.s.
A nurnbtr ()( (Clklics Of1 the apphcn110n of fuzzy set and fu1..z.y logic: in cellu-
lar urbnn modelling can be identified tn the literature (}o..fandeJ.as,
Batztchmto<. and Pra.<tocOI2007; DragJCevic 2004; Li11 and Pbinn 2003; Wu 1993b)
follo\\1ng I he pt()tteering lilltmpl by Wu (1996). A linguistic cellularaulomatasimu-
lauon app[Q,Jcb was devdoped by Wu (19'.16) to sirr:ulate the process of land de\el-
opmcnt in a faM. gtOWIOJ urbnn rts.K>n tn China. ln t his simulauo:1 approach, the
48
Mor,l {' lli ng Utb:'ll'l Uevcl(lpmcl"'t with GI S and Cellular Autonal a
rules defined to mtegrnte with 3 decision-making process. that is, they
are defined throuKh v.1guc. and suh;c<:tive 1H1tural language statements to describe
cenam of 11 dl!ei.sion. For in <an nee, the de\'clopment of a piece o f agri-
cullUrn.lland into urb.1n land mostlikdy pr(!COndiuoned by having the quality
of good n,e rul.: c.u1 he ea.uty modified " 'ith linguistic hedges
as good or nol JO good. 1'hc na.lural language statements allow the inltgrnlion
of fuzzy logic. contrOl mto mmltcldng the decision-making process. thus making
the of 1he model more lran<parenl and co>mp<ehensible (Wu 1996: 368).
,-\pplicatkm oflhc model tn Guang?hou Ctty shcw.-s chat the model can simu-
late urban dc .. -eloplntnl in a aarmng St)lc. It iS a u:seful1ool to pr<wide enlightening
scenarios to dccmon m.akcrs. llo"'e'cr. :t.s I he model "'as configured a1 a local
ahat is. al the sc.ale (If cells and us nc:ighb()urhood, i1 did n01: take into account the
impact of (acu.lr'\ such as 10n1ng and land availahilny on urban
dcvclopmenL as the mc:mhtrship function and the fuzzy linguistic modifi-
e:rs arc dchned 1n a "''"Y the mterprclation or dlc! model's res.u:LS is largely
restnelcd (Wu 1996).
At. the focus of this book, more or the fuzz.) consuat:.ted cellular
amomat.t model wtll be prescn1ed rn the foJlowing chlflters of the book.
2.3.4.4 Transition R11l cs from O the r Models
Auo thcr popular :&pproach med in ccllulnr au romata bRscd urban mode11ing is l O
mcoq>orate other modcllinu rnethodology i nto 1he model, especiall> for defi n-
tng the tr-B nsilion ru les for it. Mathernnd cill models used include the. analytical
hierarchy (All P), 1\n a pprooch of lhc rnuhicriteria evaluatiou ( \Vu and
Wehstcr 1998; Wu J9?Sc), onult iplc regrcs1io n a nalysis (Sui and Zeng 2001), prin-
cip-al cnonponcnts anHlysb (PC/\) (li nnd Yelo2002), and so fort h. F or instance, in
Wu a nd Wu and Wcb>tcr (1998). a model en lied SimLand was developed.
wh.ich intcgrntes li iS, celluiM ' HilOI'I"' ntn. nnd A F.-I P !IS 1 hrec inte rrelated c<.>rnpo -
ne n ts. Th<.. AHP mclhocJ used to de l' ive ru les of transit ion;
it uses pmnv1sc comparisOn$ tCl ac<tuirc the JHef'ercncc of dec1slon makers.
AHP WLHI developed by SaMy {L980), a nd it has been implemented in
a G IS c nviro nuu,: nt wel l (Bun;1i 1993). from the AHP were tsed as an
mdicatQr of land convcr)ior probability tO (eed the cellular a utomata model ln
coufigu r i11g the trnnsition rules. GIS was used ns n modelling fra mewo rk a nd
also to present und visunh\C simulntion results. The model was also appJied to
simulate the land d\!VCiopncnl or nn \ll'bfln reg ion in China'!iO Guangzhou City
(Wu 1998).
In Sui aod Zcng (2001), n muhiplc regre<sion method w1s de,cloped to calculate
weights to be used in the cellular automalt't model. Parameters used in the muhlple
regression methOd were computed in three consecuthe steps. The step was to
oYcrlay all temporal dutn frNn 1992 to 1996 U\ order to identify and extract cells
that b.."tve chan&ed Mates ovc:- thnt ume period. The cecond step was to use a mov-
irtg wtndow of 10 x 10 cells to sc::lcet cell\: that were con\o'eOCd tnto urban land. The
proportron or con .. rrtcd cells 1n ench moving "'ndO\\' was t.aken as the transition
probabilities for in that v- indow. The last step "as co measure a mean value
Cellular Automata and ll:.Appli< ntion fn Ur bar1 Modell ing
49
of factors as cJcvauon for cells wi1hin the window. This model was applied to
simul,ttc the d ynnn1 or landscop<: Sl rue lure in a fast growing urban area in south
easl China (Suo a nd 7ens 2001).
In "-i and Yeh (2000). simllar 10 the C()I\Stra ined cel lular automata rnodcls devel-
oped by White and Eng<len (1993, 1997). mulup!e scale conwainlS were iden<if.ed
at local. n:gtonal. and gJObtll scales. The local cO<mrai lllS "ere rcpn:semed by <ell-
based values or scores th:u inHucncc the cellular o.utQtnata model at the local or cell
scale. The regional consuoonn emphosi'e lhe differences of a geogrl!phical phe-
nomenon among larger constraints such as adrninisuative boundaries
Or local govcrnmenl plnnntnl! pohcie> may only have agg_regalcd or p3rtial-spalial
infQmlalion to be ucd tn 1tc model. The global constrainlS are normally charac-
terised bl tcmpor.:tl or nonSp3liBInformation. but they can be used 10 control the
overall amount oflnnd cons.1mption 1n the cellular automata modelling process (Li
and Yeh 2000). The vu1ous constnaints v.'Cre ocorporated through multiple criteria
evaluation techmquc.s to gcner:ne dC\tlopment suitabil ity for the ceUular automata-
based urban model. Sui><equently. Lt ar.d Yeh (2002) also used principal compo-
nents analyss (I>CA) ta deal with the correlation of spa1ial variables and remove
redundant da111 ..
In the effort or using "arious mathenuuical approaches to configure 1be transition
rules of a cellu!Jr autorntunn. 11 obvious tha1 the primary purpOse of employing
matllcmattcal appronches in (he 111odclling practice is to ewtJuatc the sunabllity or
probal>i I ity or for development. Therefore, I hi< type of model is also regarded as
a "suitability based CA model" (Lo a nd Yeh 2000).
2.:1.4.5 Artificial Neural Network (1\NN)Based Cellular Automata Models
Eit her lite constrai ned ccllulnr automata mode-l. or the SLEUTH model, or the sui t-
cellular nutomow lll()(lels require the configun-u ion of parameter values
for the transttioni' UIOS, which HI'O cl'ilicalto the nodel . A lthough i t is not always easy
10 develop deta iltd trunsition ulos wiLh correct!)' conlig urcd and calibrated par3nl -
etcr vluc.:s in H cellular nutomnto nodel, nn approach based on ANN 'Nas devel-
oped and tCSlcd by l .o And Yoh (2002, 2001) to generme nnd calibralc the onodd's
parameler vo lues aulomtlliCtllly. ANN is ll mmhemmical model based on biological
neurfll network:,. It of on interconnected group of artificial neurons, and it
procc.s:>cs information using a conncclionist approach 10 computalion. The neural
network coutnins three type,) CJC data la}crs: input dtna layers. , output data layers.
and some hidden staying in the input and output layers (Figure 2.9).
Sitnilar lo the h uman brain. the ANN model can be trai ned by sample dala lo learn,
th.10k. and react to sti mulus. During this training process. the initial model pararnc
ter \a lues are modi lied rcpentcdly until the model can generate acceptable outcomes
that ma1cb t.be targeted oucpur .. -atuu.
l:SJng A1SN, Lo nnd Yeh (2002. 2001) formalised a model 10 tn 1he
translhon functions of the cellular automata. A three layer neural network v. ith
multJpfe OJtput ncurorb was dcs1gned 10 calculate conversion problbilities for mu J.
tiple ldnd u-KS. The ANN \\1, trcuned using data e:ur-acted (rQm tbe local sne in
GIS. Through a \el ot train ina proccsKs. 1hc neural nei'"'Ork was able to
so ,\..1odelling De-velopment with GIS and CelhJi ar Automata
l.nput La)Tn HW.dt.n Layus
FICURE 2.9 An <lniftc;i ol neur,.lnet'AOrk.
a nuwber of parame;tc r automatically, wh ich were imported inlO the cellu
l:tr automa1a model to simulate che nultiple change progress. Their slUdy
c: hows thalthe ANNbas.cd cell ular CI UlOJOata model was Ltblc 1() generate results with
bel1er accuracy chan a nno-A;o.."N based model in the simulation of non tjnear com
plcx uroan <)stems (Li and Y<h 2002. 2001). HO\,<vtr, a fundamcrJal issu< in csmg
th< neural network approach J> thot it is essentiaill' black-box of mf>del: v.illii
h3ppens inside the black boJt as unknown lO the mOdellcrs and the
1bc._lnodel does not pro-..,de explicit knowledge: in understanding the proc"'tss of land.
0 Q,i and Yeh 2002}
2.3.4.6 Stochastic Cell ula r Automa ta Model
RC$earch literature the use o f a stocha, uc np]>roach in contigu,j ng 1he
parameter values o f a cellular nuii) IOOta model. One such ' "as underta ken by
Wu (2002) '"''ho the 1niua! probability of from obwved
llal land-we data. The inrtinl probability was updated dynamicdly through local
rules based On the Slrcngth Of ncrgltbourhood dC\'elopment. fly applymg the model
tosimulttc tbe proces.; of rural to urban land usecom'Crsion 1n Ch1nas Guangzbou
tity, the model gcoera1ed renhsucstmulation results.
Similarly, Almeida ct ol. (2003) designed a framework usmg probabilistic
111e thods thut based o n Bayc8' theory a nd the related '\.,.'tlj!hts of evid ence"
upvroach for simulnli ng u rbon c hange (Al meida eL nl. 2003: lSI). The model was
appl ied 10 a medium .. s: ilcd town in Brazil to con1bine vnrious .socio-econo.-nic
a nd infrastructuml factors tu predict the probability of between land-use
1)
1
pes. The research shows that the "weights of evtdencc" approach prO\' Ides a pa r
t.iC\Ji arly simple and useful way of how te-;s con"enuonal map d ata 1n
raster ar.d in bmary form ca1t be used in a multhariaue frame"ork. thus linking.
cellular automat3 and rasu:r GIS to more convention:. I and \\<Cll-estabiJshed meth-
ods of Statistical esumnuon. An advantageous feature of the mQdel is that f::ctors
Automata a" d H:o. Application in Urban Modelling
51
that arc direct I) considered b) local municipaltues and deHiopen who have the
greatest control O\-"Ct urtxln land de\-elopmcnl arc U:>C:d drivtrs of the growth
process (Almeida et nl 2003: 507).
/
2.3.5 MOOfLLI'IC Tl.\lf
Urbnn develoruJ,Ont is n pi'OCt.:.SS that occurs in s pace over ti me. In order Lo
understand the dynamic process of such developrnenL, both lhe spatial and tcm
poral di mensions of this process need to be taken iruo accOJ.ml . .1\iany effons have
been made at Lhe conceptual level 10 improve the cemporal dynamic
in a GIS (Ciaramunl and Theriault 1995; Pcuquct and Duan 1995; Peuquet 1994:
Langrnn 1993; Hazcllon, Leahy. and Williamson 1992). llO\\<,<:r, lite paradigm
(or temporal d:ua represcntauon 1 n'ade a GIS lr.uoe"orl 51 HI remains unresol ved
(Dragteevic 2000).
According co {1992)., there arc several dcfiniltons ofume in 1he ton text
af a GIS database. T hc>e 10cludc
I. The real war/(/ time wlu; n change really occurs
2. The updatlng tlmt \vhcn gcogmphical dat:l ore recorded
3. The carrograplu'c rime when data productS are rdeascU
4. The dma/)a:,e (tmnwction) rime when da ta 3rc rcgi$tcrcd into the
(Snodgrass 1992)
More recently, Drng,iceic (2000) <J.,,dopcd an approach bas<xl on fuzzy set 1heory
lo generale new <lara 01 mtc:rocdiate to existing d:na layers. The model c<>ttld
closely simulate the evolution occurring ill the real v..orld ai\en that an optimal tcm
l ' ornl IS choc:cu. CnnseqJentl y, the <.lnrabase representation of time can
appnJa: h tJ1e real worlcl comim1urn (Dragiccvic 2000).
. For cel lular autOilUUfl n1odl'ls, o ne of the fundame nt al components is ti me, rhm
IS, the change o f state or u cell at one u me is commllec'l by the Mate of the ce!l itself
and the s tale of wilhi ua certain neighbourhood in 1 he previous Lime step. He nce,
the modd '? be; configure-d not only spatially but also ternporally. HO\, ever,
current pracuces m ccllu1:.u automat.a-based urban modellu1g are mainly focused
on the spatial d1mcnsi<"n of urban lanct. use change; there b little coocern for the
temporal dimension oft he model. Most cellular automata ntodels are configured hy
the model from u c<.:riJJD ume y,:here spatial datn sets are and then
letting. the model run for u number of iterations IJilUI the simulated n:sulcs :.fit'' with
anolher set of data nt the endi ng 1i me. Tht rfOr<. models w<.: rc not conf.gu red
dtc::y were II(Jl de.:. igncd to simula te the process of urban developrnent
over umc.
2.4 CONCLUSION
n1b chapter introduced the: baYc cellular automata mcxk-1, ilS origin in
and its applications 1n urban modelhng prac-uces. A grow ins nurnber of modtls arc
developed wnh a view to repre..senti ng real urOOn and regional systems and their use
52
Modelling Urban Oevelopme:nt with GIS and Cellular
for practical lasb, i1l significanll)(ogrc!.S iuthe field ofsimula1in.g the sp.tt
tial arld lemporal dynomic5. of urban devclopmenl. However, there are Stll several
UmHIS\Ve(ed queM iOnS ren1aining in lhis neld.
).'(ost of the cellular automata aJOdels or urb:ln growth configure the cells as
blnary stute.s of either urban or nonur'ban. or wath spt:Ctfic hlnduse types;
there
1
s
3
sharp boundary between the non -urban and urban s_uues. or bel"'een
the different types of land use. Therefore. those n>Odels >IOiulrue the
con\'crsion of :1 nonul'ban to :arl urban proce"'(\ (Li and Yeh Oarke and
Gaydos 1998; Wu 1998a,b,c. 1996; Clarke, Hoppen, and Gnydos 1997). .
AJLhough some re4\earch been undertaken 10 apply f u11.y set lhcory
dcHning the trunsition rules of a ccllulnr nutomata model ('Wu1998b, 1996.
Dragi<:e\ic 2004). more systcJrwtic rcscnrch needs to be done 10
fuzzy rule mechanism of on urban fuzz.y set; t!ae funy
rules FllOuld also be associated with the non ..dcternunau'e or fuzzy roture
of the cell 5<3te. .
The confi&ura1ion of the neighbourhood pr.agmaliC. No spcc1ftt.: Ct."'I\Sad
eration has been srven to the settin1 of rite neighbourho< sit.e m tcrm..s of
either lh.:ory or pmcfjce. .
Most of the cel lular automata arc nol ltllll>on:a11y. 1
urc implemented by scttin& up a starling nnd lhen
the mudcl run for a number of ltcratlons tantil the sunulatcd results
wilh U\e dam SC( for calibration. Con<.equently, the)' only model lhc sp:mal
ot urban de,e!opmcnt.
This book wi ll oddrcs some of
1
hesc isso<, ,r not all of them 11le following chap
tel'S present a fu7.1.)' cons,rained cel lular autornata model of urban development and
apply the model to mutate the sputia) and tcmpo.ral processes of the urhnn
mcnt of a metropolitan region in Sydney. Austraha.
3
I
Devel oping a Fuzzy
Constrained Cellul ar
Automata Model of
Urban Development
Urban is the result nf a of factors, lhese bcmg J)hysical, socio-
economic, insTitutional. Pre,iou.s .studies on urbun modell ang have addressed
\'8Iious aspects of urban de,clopment. most ol the-te stud_tes regard u.rban
developrnent as a binary process of non .. urbJn to urban COf''cn.ion conducted under
lhe i>anldigm or the crisp .<el 1hcol)' (Wu and Webster 2000; Clari<e and GaydOs
1998; Wu 1998a,b,c, 1996; White and 1997, 19')3) In fact, the pro
cess of lll'bOn t.lcvelopmcnt a fuZZ)' process bclih Sp::tlinll)' and !t::mporally.
Spacia11y, there i$ no sharp boundury between ao urban buill up arta, urban- ruaal
fringe, (lOd non..-urh:ln rural Janel. Tcmpol"ally, urban development is a coJHinuous
process 1hnt con be: illumalcd using a logistic curve (Htobc:rt and Th<Joros l997;
Jakobsoa and Prakasb l97t).
llUs c.hnpter de\tlops a ful.J_)' C:onSIJBined cellular autOJDBII model Of urban de vel
opmcnt. Urban a1eas are defined based on fuay set approach. A fuzzy membership
function IS u<tcd 10 delimitate the conLinU()liS process of the rura1to- urb:m transition.
lu addition, the mtnsition of cells f'1'01n ana st..'\U! to ar"I Othcr is conuo11cd by fll7zy
JogiCCOnMnuncd rules rcpresentint lhc nature nf forces leadmg t
urban Section3.1 introduces fuzzy set theory nnd the role of funy scl in
defimng. the srrue of cells of an uba11 cellular amomaton. 3.2 discusses fuz:ty
logK:: and fuuy logic control. It also dcmonsunres how a fuu;y logic controller can he
io!rodue<:d tO model the process of urban de\'Oiopmenl. This IS (OII(l""d b)' Section 3.3,
"'bich 11lu.strate.c; the construction of a fu11y logic .. c:ontrolled cellular automata lomodcl
lhe process of urb.Jn development A nurnbcr of prima1y and second3!'Y rules as well as
a rule-infcrcncingelgirle are prvpOS<.d ba.;ed on Jogac: Lhcse rules and the fuzzy
in(Crcncing cns i ne are calibrated when the model is applied to n real urban cxlcnl.
Section 3.3 nlsu presents a discussion on the defuzzification npproach used to transfer
the model's fuzzy ou1ptn resuhs intu crisp ''alues. FinaJiy, conclusions on model con ..
Struction based <W fuuy set ond fuZ.Z)' logic nrc: pcc:sentcd m Section 3.4.
3.1 URBAN DEVElOPMENT AND FUZZY SETS
t:rban development IS a Jlt'O<eSS Of phySICO I COnCnlfl icn of people and buildi ngS
(Herbert and ThC'Imas 1997). This i$ t1 continuous process in ctpRce and tjmc Lhal
53