IoT and Machine Learning CIUF Ajit Jaokar

Copyright : Futuretext Ltd.
London
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Slides for my talk on IoT and Machine Learning
Computational Intelligence Unconference UK July 2014 -
http://ciunconference.org/uk/2014/schedule.php
@ajitjaokar
ajit.jaokar@futuretext.com
Sign up at www.futuretext.com to get copies of papers on IoT and
Machine learning, Real time algorithms for IoT and Machine
learning algorithms for Smart cities
Copyright : Futuretext Ltd. London
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Ajit Jaokar
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Machine Learning for IoT and Telecoms
futuretext applies machine learning techniques to complex problems in the
IoT (Internet of Things) and Telecoms domains.

We aim to provide a distinct competitive advantage to our customers through
application of machine learning techniques
Philosophy:
Think of NEST. NEST has no interface. Its
interface is based on machine learning i.e. it
learns and becomes better with use. This will be
common with ALL products and will determine
the competitive advantage of companies. Its a
winner takes all game! Every product will have a
self learning interface/component and the
product which learns best will win!
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Ajit Jaokar
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www.futuretext.com
@AjitJaokar
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Ajit Jaokar
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Data is the new oil ...
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Ajit Jaokar
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The meek shall inherit the earth .. BUT not its mineral rights!
Data is out there and is free (Open data). It provides no competitive advantages.
Finding patterns in data is the holy grail (the oil!)

Ajit Jaokar
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Source: MIT / Smithsonian
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/better-traffic-light-timing-will-get-
you-there-faster-180952123/
a) State of Play b) IoT c) Machine Learning d) What is unique with IoT and Machine
Learning
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Ajit Jaokar
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www.opengardensblog.futuretext.com
World Economic Forum
Spoken at MWC(5 times), CEBIT, CTIA, Web 2.0,
CNN, BBC, Oxford Uni, Uni St Gallen, European
Parliament. @feynlabs teaching kids Computer
Science. Adivsory Connected Liverpool
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Image source: Guardian
Image source: Guardian
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Ajit Jaokar
IOT - THE INDUSTRY- STATE OF PLAY

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Ajit Jaokar
State of play - 2014
Our industry is exciting but mature - Now a two horse race for
devices with Samsung around 70% of Android
Spectrum allocations and G cycles are predictable - 5G around 2020
50 billion connected devices by 2020
ITU world Radio communications Conference, November 2015.
IOT has taken off .. not because of EU and Corp efforts but because of
Mobile, kickstarter, health apps and iBeacon and ofcourse NEST(acquired
by Google)

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Ajit Jaokar
Stage One: Early innovation 1999 - 2007
Regulatory innovation net neutrality - Device innovation (Nokia
7110 and Ericsson t68i) - Operator innovation (pricing, bundling,
Enterprise) - Connectivity innovation (SMS, BBM)
Content innovation (ringtones, games, EMS, MMS) - Ecosystem
innovation (iPhone)

Stage two: Ecosystem innovation - iPhone and
Android (2007 2010)
Social innovation - Platform innovation - Community
innovation - Long tail innovation - Application
innovation

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Ajit Jaokar
Phase three: Market consolidation 2010 - 2013
And then there were two ...
Platform innovation and consolidation
Security innovation
App innovation

Phase four three dimensions 2014 ..
Horizontal apps (iPhone and Android)
Vertical (across the stack) hardware, security, Data
Network 5G and pricing
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Ajit Jaokar

Many of the consumer IOT cases will happen with iBeacon in the next
two years
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Ajit Jaokar

And 5G will provide the WAN connectivity 5G - Source Ericsson
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Ajit Jaokar
Samsung Gear Fit named Best Mobile Device of Mobile World
Congress

Notification or Quantification? Displays (LED, e-paper,
Mirasol, OLED and LCD) - Touchscreen or hardware controls? -
Battery life and charging

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Ajit Jaokar
Hotspot 2.0

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Ajit Jaokar
Three parallel ecosystems
IOT is connecting things to the Internet which is not the same as
connecting things to the cellular network!
The difference is money .. and customers realise it

IOT local/personal (iBeacon, Kickstarter, Health apps)

M2M Machine to Machine

IOT pervasive(5G, Hotspot 2.0)

Perspectives
2014 2015(radio conf) 2020(5G, 2020)
2014 iBeacon (motivate retailers to open WiFi)
Hotspot 2.0 connect cellular and wifi worlds
Default wifi and local world?
Operator world (Big)Data, Corporate, pervasive apps really happen
beyond 2020
So 5G will be timed well. The ecosystems will develop and they will be
connected by 5G
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Ajit Jaokar
IOT INTERNET OF THINGS
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As the term Internet of Things implies (IOT) IOT is about Smart
objects
For an object (say a chair) to be smart it must have three things
- An Identity (to be uniquely identifiable via iPv6)
- A communication mechanism(i.e. a radio) and
- A set of sensors / actuators

For example
the chair may have a pressure sensor indicating that it is occupied
Now, if it is able to know who is sitting it could co-relate more data by
connecting to the persons profile
If it is in a cafe, whole new data sets can be co-related (about the venue,
about who else is there etc)

Thus, IOT is all about Data ..

IoT != M2M (M2M is a subset of IoT)
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Sensors lead to a LOT of Data (relative to mobile) .. (source David
wood blog)

By 2020, we are expected to have 50 billion connected devices
To put in context:
The first commercial citywide cellular network was launched in Japan by NTT
in 1979
The milestone of 1 billion mobile phone connections was reached in 2002

The 2 billion mobile phone connections milestone was reached in 2005

The 3 billion mobile phone connections milestone was reached in 2007

The 4 billion mobile phone connections milestone was reached in February
2009.

Gartner: IoT will unearth more than $1.9 trillion in revenue before 2020; Cisco thinks
there will be upwards of 50 billion connected devices by the same date; IDC estimates
technology and services revenue will grow worldwide to $7.3 trillion by 2017 (up
from $4.8 trillion in 2012).

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So, 50 billion by 2020 is a large number
Smart cities can be seen as an application domain of IOT

In 2008, for the first time in history, more than half of the worlds
population will be living in towns and cities.
By 2030 this number will swell to almost 5 billion, with urban growth
concentrated in Africa and Asia with many mega-cities(10 million +
inhabitants).
By 2050, 70% of humanity will live in cities.

Thats a profound change and will lead to a different management approach
than what is possible today
Also, economic wealth of a nation could be seen as Energy +
Entrepreneurship + Connectivity (sensor level + network level +
application level)
Hence, if IOT is seen as a part of a network, then it is a core component of
GDP.

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Ajit Jaokar
Machine Learning

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What is Machine Learning?

Mitchell's Machine Learning
Tom Mitchell in his book Machine Learning The field of machine learning is c
oncerned with the question of how to construct computer
programs that automatically improve with experience.
formally:
A computer program is said to learn from experience E with respect to
some class of tasks T and performance measure P, if its performance at
tasks in T, as measured by P, improves with experience E.
Think of it as a design tool where we need to understand:
What data to collect for the experience (E)
What decisions the software needs to make (T) and
How we will evaluate its results (P).
A programmers perspective:
Machine Learning involves:
a) Training of a model from data
b) Predicts/ Extrapolates a decision
c) Against a performance measure.
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What Problems Can Machine Learning Address? (source Jason
Brownlee)

Spam Detection:
Credit Card Fraud Detection
Digit Recognition:
Speech Understanding:
Face Detection:
Product Recommendation:
Medical Diagnosis:
Stock Trading:
Customer Segmentation
Shape Detection
.
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Types of Problems

Classification: Data is labelled meaning it is assigned a class, for example
spam/non-spam or fraud/non-fraud. The decision being modelled is to
assign labels to new unlabelled pieces of data. This can be thought of as a
discrimination problem, modelling the differences or similarities between groups.

Regression: Data is labelled with a real value rather
than a label. Examples that are easy to understand are time series data like the price of
a stock over time. The decision being modelled is the relationships between
inputs and outputs.

Clustering: Data is not labelled, but can be divided into groups based on
similarity and other measures of natural structure in the data.
An example from the above list would be organising pictures by faces without
names, where the human user has to assign names to groups, like iPhoto on the Mac.

Rule Extraction: Data is used as the basis for the extraction of
propositional rules (antecedent/consequent or if-then).
Often necessary to work backwards from a Problem to the algorithm and then work with
Data. Hence, you need a depth of domain experience and also algorithm experience

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What Algorithms Does Machine Learning Provide?

Regression
Instance-based Methods
Decision Tree Learning
Bayesian
Kernel Methods
Clustering methods
Association Rule Learning
Artificial Neural Networks
Deep Learning
Dimensionality Reduction
Ensemble Methods

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Ajit Jaokar
IoT and Machine Learning


Basic idea of machine learning is to build a mathematical model based on
training data(learning stage) predict results for new data(prediction
stage) and tweak the model based on new conditions
What type of model? Predicitive, Classification, Clustering, Decision
Oriented, Associative
IoT and Machine Learning
On one hand - IoT creates a lot of contextual data which complements existing
processes
On the other hand the Sheer scale of IoT calls for unique solutions

Types of problems:
Apply existing Machine Learning algorithms to IoT data
Use IoT data to complement existing processes
Use the scale of IoT data to gain new insights
Consider some unique characteristics of IoT data (ex streaming)

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IoT : from traditional computing to ..
Gone from making Smart things smarter(traditional computing) to
a) Making dumb things smarter .. and
b) living things more robust

3 Domains:
Consumer, Enterprise, Public infrastructure

1) Consumer bio sensors(real time tracking), Quantified self focussing on
benefits

2) Enterprise Complex machinery (preventative maintenance), asset efficiency
reducing assets, increasing efficiency of existing assets. More from transactions to
relationships(real time context awareness).

3) Public infrastructure(Dynamically adjust traffic lights). Dis-economies of
scale(bad things also scale in cities) Thanks John Hagel III


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Three key areas:

a) Move from exception handling to patterns of exceptions over time.(are
some exceptions occurring repeatedly? Do I need to redsign my product, Is that a
new product?)
b) Move from optimization to disruption ownership to rental ship (Where are all
these dynamic assets?)
c) Move to self learning: Robotics: From assembly line to self learning
robots(Boston Dynamics), autonomous helicopters

Four examples of differences:
Sensor fusion - Deep Learning - Real time - Streaming

Sensor fusion
Sensor fusion is the combining of sensory data or data derived from
sensory data from disparate sources such that the resulting information
is in some sense better than would be possible when these sources were
used individually. The data sources for a fusion process are not specified
to originate from identical sensors. Sensor fusion is a term that covers a
number of methods and algorithms, including: Central Limit Theorem,
Kalman filter, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer
Example: http://www.camgian.com/ http://www.egburt.com/

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Deep learning
Google's acquisition of DeepMind Technologies
In 2011, Stanford computer science professor Andrew Ng founded
Googles Google Brain project, which created a neural network trained
with deep learning algorithms, which famously proved capable
of recognizing high level concepts, such as cats, after watching just
YouTube videos--and without ever having been told what a cat is.
A smart-object recognition algorithm that doesnt need humans
http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-smart-object-recognition-algorithm-that-doesnt-need-
humans A feature construction method for general object recognition (Kirt Lillywhite,
Dah-JyeLee n, BeauTippetts, JamesArchibald)

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Real time:
Beyond Hadoop (non hadoopable) the BDAS stack

BDAS Berkeley data analytics stack

Spark an open source, in-memory, cluster computing framework.
Integrated with Hadoop(can work with files stored in HDFS)
Written in Scala

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Real time (Stream processing)
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Ajit Jaokar
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www.futuretext.com
@AjitJaokar
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@ajitjaokar
Sign up at www.futuretext.com to get copies of papers on IoT and
Machine learning, Real time algorithms for IoT and Machine
learning algorithms for Smart cities

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