Sheet1

The Bass Model

Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Lifetime:

Non Cum
Dep. var
Actuals
150
400
1,225
1,675
1,700
1,710
1,650
800
50
1
9,361

Unscrambling Regression Coefficients for P&Q

Nbar=
9361 <====
Total Cumulative Sales
p=
0.047261
q=
0.738441

Cumul.
Actuals
150
550
1,775
3,450
5,150
6,860
8,510
9,310
9,360
9,361

-------------------Regression ----------------------------Non Cum

Independent Variables
Calc
Cumul.
X1
X2
Fitted
Fitted
0
0
442.41
442.41
150
22,500
544.33
986.74
550
302,500
798.91
1785.65
1,775
3,150,625 1422.91
3208.56
3,450
11,902,500 1896.33
5104.88
5,150
26,522,500 1928.20
7033.08
6,860
47,059,600 1504.32
8537.40
8,510
72,420,100
661.83
9199.23
9,310
86,676,100
100.10
9299.33
9,360
87,609,600
61.67
9361.00

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9493711988
R Square 0.9013056732
Adjusted R Square
0.8731072941
Standard Error262.9767883
Observations
10

NonCumu

2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
2 4420921 2210461 31.96303129 0.000302
7 484097.5 69156.79
9 4905019

500

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept
442.41146912 158.131 2.797753 0.026610033 68.4914 816.33153
X Variable 1 0.6911793832 0.09641
7.16913 0.00018229 0.463205 0.9191538
X Variable 2-7.81898E-005 1.0E-005 -7.804326 0.000106727 -0.000102 -5.45E-005

Page 1

0
1

4
Years

Sheet1

NonCumulative Unit

2,000
------test--------------------Cum.
Fitted (t-1)
0
442.41147
1175.1687
2320.8909
3942.5387
5883.7971
7662.0499
8769.2223
9206.5575
9326.0216

1,500
Predicted Actuals
442
733
1,146
1,622
1,941
1,778
1,107
437
119
27

150
400
1,225
1,675
1,700
1,710
1,650
800
50
1

1,000
500
0

NonCumulative Unit Sales

2,500

Predict
ed

2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1

4 Since
5 P roduct
6 Launch
7
Years

10

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
68.491404 816.3315
0.463205 0.919154
-0.0001019 -5E-005

Page 2

4Years5Since Introduction
6 7

Sheet1

nCumulative Unit Sales

Sheet1
!#REF!

4Years5Since Introduction
6 7

10

Page 3

Year
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10

Sales
150
400
1,225
1,675
1,700
1,710
1,650
800
50
1

Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Sales
0
7
9
4
17
14
41
40
54
89
83
43
22
7
3

Time

Sales
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27

0
10
14
19
26
35
46
60
74
88
100
105
102
90
73
55
38
25
16
10
6
4
2
1
1
0
0
0

Week Number of downloads

1
15987
2
37865
3
77632
4
99743
5
132000
6
152882
7
164413
8
174000
9
200000
10
225000
11
290881
12
358370
13
344566
14
334000
15
332000
16
327000
17
325163
18
270014
19
257000
20
233000
21
198000

Period

Adopters (O)
Price
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

0
96
195
238
380
1045
1230
1267
1828
1586
1673
1800
1580
1500

Advertising
410
410
370
365
388
335
341
320
293
310
279
269
275
259

0
0
0.615
1.198
3.196
5.34
14.372
9.391
13.61
16.785
9.238
5.863
3.923
1.493

Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52

New
0.637
0.588
0.667
0.754
0.849
0.953
1.063
1.180
1.303
1.428
1.553
1.675
1.791
1.896
1.986
2.058
2.107
2.131
2.128
2.098
2.042
1.962
1.862
1.745
1.617
1.481
1.344
1.208
1.076
0.951
0.835
0.729
0.633
0.547
0.470
0.403
0.345
0.294
0.250
0.212
0.180
0.152
0.129
0.109
0.092
0.077
0.065
0.055
0.046
0.039
0.033
0.028

53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

0.023
0.019
0.016
0.014
0.012
0.010
0.008
0.007