Wake Trading

2005 10
211

(Bernard Baumohl)
(Economic Outlook Group)
20
(John Hancock)(European
American Bank)
(Council on Foreign Relations);

50
Wake Trading
Employment Report) ................................... 2
ISM Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Index ......... 3
Consumer Price Index, CPI .................................. 4
Producer Price Index, PPI ................................. 4
Durable Goods Orders ......................................... 5
Retail Sales....................................................... 6
............................................................. 6
Employment Cost Index, ECI ................................... 7
(Chicago Purchasing Managers Index ) .................... 8
Gross Domestic Production .................................... 8
(Federal Reserve Beige Book) ........................... 9
Consumer Confidence Index ................................. 10
(Michigan University Consumer Sentiment Survey) ..... 11
................................................................ 11
Housing Starts and Building Permits ................. 12
................................................................ 13
.............................................................. 14
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization ........ 14
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services ...... 15
Existing Home Sales ......................................... 15
.................................. 16
.......................................... 17
............................................................ 18

Wake Trading

..............................................
Current Account Balance .....................................
............................................................
......................
..............................
....................................................................
......................................................
................................................................
....................................................................
................................................
.................................................................
Real Income .....................................................
(Employer Costs for Employee CompensationECEC) ........
...........................................................
(Cambridge Consumer Credit Index. CCCI) ...................
/ ...................................
................................................................
................................................................
..............................................................
..............................................................
............................................
....................................
............................................
............................................
..................................
......................................
............................................
............................................
....................................
................
........................
............................................
............................................

18
19
19
20
20
21
22
22
23
24
24
25
25
26
26
27
27
28
28
29
29
30
30
31
31
32
32
33
33
34
35
35
36

Employment Report)

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm
http://stats.bls.gov
8 30

Wake Trading

6
10

2/3

16

household survey
(establishment (payroll) survey)

ISM Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Index

www.ism.ws/ISMPeport/index.cfm
www.ism.ws
10

ISM

the Institute for Supply Management ISM

Tempe

Wake Trading

ISM

ISM
50 50%
50
PMI 50
ISM

Consumer Price Index, CPI

www.bls.gov/cpi
www.bls.gov
8 30

2 1 GDP
5

CPI

200
200 8

CPI

Producer Price Index, PPI

Wake Trading

www.bls.gov/ppi
www.bls.gov
8 30

4 2 1

PPI

PPI

Durable Goods Orders

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/adv/
www.census.gov
8 30 3-4

Wake Trading

Retail Sales

www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html
www.census.com
8 30

70% 1/3

www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch
www.ows.doleta.gov
8 30

Wake Trading

Employment Cost Index, ECI

www.stats.bls.gov/news.release/eci.toc.htm
www.stats.bls.gov
8 30 4 7 10 1

Employment Cost Index, ECI

ECI
70%

ECI

ECI

Wake Trading

(Chicago Purchasing Managers Index )

www.napm-chicago.org
10

Purchasing Managers Index, PMI)

ISM

ISM
PMI 60% 10
ISM

ISM 50 50

Gross Domestic Production

GDP
www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/home/gdp.htm
www.bea.doc.gov
8 30 1 4 7 10

2006 GDP

7
5
GDP 1929

GDP

Wake Trading

GDP
CEO
GDP
GDP
GDP
GDP

GDP GDP

(Federal Reserve Beige Book)

www.federalreserve.gov/frbindex.htm
www.federalreserve.gov
2 FOMC
8

Federal Open Market Committee,

FOMC
FOMC 19 7 12
19 12 7
4 4
11
FOMC

FOMC

FOMC

Wake Trading

FOMC
FOMC
FOMC

12

FOMC
FOMC

FOMC
FOMC FOMC

Consumer Confidence Index

www.conference-board.org/economics/consumerConfidence.cfm
www.conferenceboard.org
10

10

Wake Trading

(Michigan University Consumer Sentiment

Survey)

www.sca.isr.umich.edu/press-release.php
www.sca.isr.umich.edu/main.php
9 45

1946

1-2

10 6

www.bls.gov
8 30

11

Wake Trading

60
GDP

Housing Starts and Building Permits

www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.html
www.census.gov
8 30 2-3

1000 2500 1

12

Wake Trading

www.realtor.org/research.nsf/pages/ehsdata
www.realtor.org/research.nsf/pages/houseinginx
www.realtor.org
10

The National Association of

Realtors, NAR), 96

13

Wake Trading

www.census.gov/newhomesales
www.census.gov
10

12-18

3-4

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

www.federalreserve.gov/releases/gl7/current
www.federalreserve.gov
9 15 15

3 11

14

Wake Trading

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services

www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/tradnewsrelease.ht
www.bea.gov
8 30

GDP
GDP

Existing Home Sales

15

Wake Trading

www.realtor.org/research.nsf/pages/ehsdata
www.realtor.org/research.nsf/pages/houseinginx
www.realtor.org
10

The National Association of

Realtors, NAR), 96

www.mortgagebankers.org/news
www.mortgagebankers.org
7 30

16

Wake Trading

the Mortgage Bankers Association, MBA

1
2

30
60 90

www.chainstoreage.com/industry_data/
www.chainstoreage.com
7 45

www.redbooksearch.com
8 55

17

Wake Trading

www.ny.frb.org/research/regional_economy/empiresurvey_overview.html
www.ny.frb.org
15

Empire State Manufacturing Survey ESMS

10

ESMS 6 ESMS
ESMS
ESMS

ESMS

www.phil.frb.org/econ/bos/index.html
www.phil.frb.org
12

1968
Business Outlook SurveyBOS

ISM

18

Wake Trading

Current Account Balance

www.bea.doc.gov/bea/rels.htm
www.bea.doc.gov
8 30

1200
1000

3
4

www.globalindicators.org/us/LatestReleases
www.globalindicators.org
10

19

Wake Trading

Leading Economic Indicators LEC

LEI
LEI

10

3-9
LEI 10 7 3

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/index.htm
www.census.gov
10
4-5

20

Wake Trading

www.census.gov/mtis/www/mtis.html
www.census.gov
8 30 6

-I/S

I/S

www.stockcharts.com/chart/YieldCurve.html
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index/html

10
3 1.2 50%3
10 2.4 90%
18

10 30

21

Wake Trading

2.5

www.ubs.com/investoroptimism
www.ubs.com
8 30

UBS

UBS
Index of Investor Optimism

500
1990

www.nahb.org

22

Wake Trading

2
3

1 72000 400
2

www.census.gov/constructionspending
www.census.gov
10

GDP
9%

GDP

3 6

ISM

23

Wake Trading

www.ism.ws/ISMReport/index.cfm
www.ism.ws
10

1
4

Rodney Dangerfield
1998 6 ISM

80%

GDP
ISM

ISM

www.bls.gov/mxp
www.bls.gov
8 30

2004 1

1.5 GDP 15%

24

Wake Trading

GDP 10%

Real Income

www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.toc.htm
www.bls.gov
8 30 CPI

CPI

(Employer Costs for Employee CompensationECEC)

www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.toc.htm
www.bls.gov
10 3

Employer Costs for Employee CompensationECEC)

25

Wake Trading

2002

ECEC

www.federalrelease.gov/release/g19
www.federalreserve.gov
5-6

(Cambridge Consumer Credit Index. CCCI)

www.cambridgeconsumerindex.com/
www.cambridgeconsumerindex.com/
8 30 5

Cambridge Credit Counseling Corp.

26

Wake Trading

Cambridge Consumer Credit Index. CCCI

GDP2/3
2001 -2003 90%

CCCI

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/
www.abcnews.go.com
6 30

1985

1
/ 0.88
0.91

www.conferenceboard.org/economics/helpawanted.cfm
www.conferenceboard.org
10

27

Wake Trading

www.challengegray.com ()
10

CGC

20 80

CGC

Bloomberg
(CNBC) (CNN)

www.bls.gov/mls
www.bls.gov
10

28

Wake Trading

Mass Layoff
Statistics MLS

MSL Event 5
50

70 100
200
370 3

30 30

www.census.gov/mrts/www/current.html
www.census.gov
10

www.kc.frb.org/mfgsurv/mfgmain.htm
www.kc.frb.org
11

29

Wake Trading

1995

www.rich.frb.org
10

ISM ISM

210

50%

www.chicagofed.org/economic_reasearch_and_data/data_index.cfm
www.chicagofed.org
10

2001 3

30

Wake Trading

Chicago Fed National Activity Index, CFNAI,

www.destatis.de/indicators/e/tkpilllx.htm
www.destatis.de
11 3
1

GDP

www.ifo-business-climate-index.info
www.ifo.de
10

IFO Institute for Economic Research

IFO

IFO
IFO
ISM
6

31

Wake Trading

www.destatis.de/indicators/e/pre110je.htm
www.destatis.de/e_home.htm
CPI 25

CPI

CPI

www.boj.or.jp/en/stat/tk/tk.htm
www.boj.or.jp/en/index.htm
8 50 4 7 10 12

Tankan
Survey

32

Wake Trading

www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics
www.meti.go.jp/english
8 50
23
10 11
12

METI

90

4000

GDP

www.insee.fr/en/home/home_page.asp
8 45

INSEE

2500

33

Wake Trading

10

www.ntc-research.com
www.ism.ws/ISMReport/index.cfm

PMI
9

PMI 11

PMI/NTC PMIJP /NTC

PMI

20 PMI
1996 1997
1998 2002
PMI
1997 PMI

92% NTC

PMI
2003 10 PMI
JP NTC
76% 22 7000

PMI PMI
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
50 50 50

PMI
NTC

34

Wake Trading

PMISearch the news archiveEuro zone

manufacturing PMIGlobal manufacturing PMI,
PMI
www.ism.ws/ISMReport/index.cfm PMI PDF

www.oecd.org/std/cli

1 11

OECD

OECD CLI 23 7
OECD 30
OECD OECD
4.8
OECD

www.stats.gov.cn/english/stastiscaldata/monthldata
www.stats.gov.cn/english
3 30 4 30

NBS

GDP

13 20

35

Wake Trading

2000

www.ibge.gov.br/english
www.bcb.gov.br/pec/indeco/ingl/indecoi.htm

13

20

36