IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 17, No.

6; December 2010 1869

1070-9878/10/$25.00 2010 IEEE
Aging Effect on Insulation Reliability Evaluation
with Weibull Distribution for Oil-immersed Transformers
Toshihiro Tsuboi, Jun Takami, Shigemitsu Okabe
R&D Center, High Voltage & Insulation Group, Tokyo Electric Power Company
4-1, Egasaki-cho, Tsurumi-ku, Yokohama, 230-8510, Japan
Kiyoshi Inami and Kazuaki Aono
Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
651, Tenwa, Ako-city, Hyogo, 678-0256, Japan
ABSTRACT
In the condition settings of a power-frequency withstand voltage test for substation
equipment, an approach based on insulation reliability evaluation using Weibull
distribution is available. However, the subjects which should be investigated remains in
this method. One of the subjects is that evaluating the insulated reliability for temporary
overvoltage caused in an aged equipment by the pre-aging Weibull parameter. In the first
place, for an oil-immersed transformer, the breakdown voltage-time (V-t) characteristics
of the oil gap were obtained as basic characteristics in the previous experiment. In this
experiment the presence or absence of the oil flow was used as a parameter affecting the
history of the applied voltage. Also, the validity of the present evaluation approach to
temporary overvoltage during operation was examined. In this paper, an insulation
characteristic was obtained in consideration of the age-related deterioration in the field.
The results were then analyzed in comparison with the insulation characteristics of a new
insulating oil. As a result, there was little change affecting the result of insulation
reliability evaluation in the Weibull parameters. Consequently, it is reasonable to evaluate
the insulation reliability by the V-t characteristic of the new insulating oil.
Index Terms Power-frequency withstand voltage test, reliability evaluation,
Weibull distributions, breakdown (partial discharge inception) voltage-time
characteristics, degradation.
1 INTRODUCTION
FOR substation equipment such as oil-immersed
transformers, the insulation performance is verified by
conducting withstand voltage tests. The setting of test
conditions for the power-frequency withstand voltage test
involves an approach whereby the insulation reliability is
evaluated with respect to temporary overvoltage generated
during the service life.
The failure probability distribution is considered to be
expressed by Weibull distribution [1]. In this instance, the
characteristics of the time (t) relative to the voltage (V) of the
insulation breakdown or partial discharge inception (V-t
characteristics) are considered to comply with the so-called
inverse n-th power law, which is approximated by V
n
t = K
(wherein n is the Weibull distribution parameters n value and K
is a constant value). It is also known that the measurement results
generally comply with Weibull distribution and the inverse n-th
power law. And this paper is also based on the same assumption.
There is a precise method using this Weibull distribution
for setting the proper test conditions. The insulation reliability
of equipment is evaluated to set the test conditions [2]. With
regard to the reliability evaluation using Weibull distribution,
various arguments have been made concerning its validity and
higher precision, including various insulating elements and
other probability distributions [3-6].
In the previous experiment, the V-t characteristics of oil
gaps at oil flows of 0, 8 and 16 cm/s respectively were
obtained in consideration of the actual oil-immersed
transformers [7]. Subsequently, in order to examine the
evaluation model where it was subject to overvoltage several
times while in operation, an insulation test featuring multiple
applications of identical voltage was performed. As a result, it
emerged that the present evaluation model gives the result on
the safe side [8]. In addition, insulation characteristics were
investigated assuming temporary overvoltage while in
operation. These results indicated little change in Weibull
parameters large enough to affect the results of the test voltage
setting. And the evaluation results of the present model were
slightly on the safe side. Manuscript received on 10 May 2010, in final form 12 August 2010.
1870 T. Tsuboi et al.: Aging Effect on Insulation Reliability Evaluation with Weibull Distribution for Oil-immersed Transformers
The subject in this paper is to verify whether the validity of
the evaluation with Weibull distribution parameters obtained
from a V-t characteristic test is appropriate for overvoltage
after the aging takes place. Using the withstand voltage test
based on insulation reliability evaluation, the insulation
performance is verified for the operating voltage during the
service life and the overvoltage in the event of a fault after
aging. However, parameters obtained from the V-t
characteristic test without aging are applied to the reliability
evaluation.
This paper discusses the Weibull distribution evaluation
parameters of an oil-immersed transformer after it was aged.
At first, an insulating oil with thermo-oxidative degradation is
made assuming the aging in the field equipment. One-minute
step-up and V-t characteristic tests and an insulation
characteristic test with multiple-times voltage application are
conducted on the degraded oil. Subsequently, their results are
compared with those of the previously reported insulation
characteristic test for the new oil [7, 8]. And changes in the
Weibull distribution parameter values and insulation
characteristic are examined in terms of the insulation
reliability evaluation.
2 TESTINGCONDITIONS FOR THE
INSULATIONCHARACTERISTICS OF
DEGRADED OIL WITH THERMAL
OXIDATION
2.1 TESTING CONDITIONS
Weibull parameters after age-related degradation are
examined. In this study, a degraded oil with thermal oxidation
was made by heating it with a heater after forming air bubbles.
Same as the basic characteristic test [7], a 4-mm-wide oil gap
was formed by the disk electrodes as illustrated in Figure 1.
The edge of the electrodes are specular surface finishing in
curvature R7.5. The diameter of a flat part is 90 mm. The
dielectric breakdown characteristic was obtained of that gap
filled with the degraded oil with thermal oxidation.
The number of particles contained in the oil was controlled
500/100 ml or less for particle sizes ranging from 5 to 20 m,
and 16/100 ml or less for those ranging from 20 to 50 m.
With regard to the oil flow, the test was conducted on two
cases; 0 and 16 cm/s respectively. In each experiment, the
subsequent test was carried out after circulation of the
insulating oil. The insulating oil was circulated for five
minutes or longer at an oil flow of 100 l/min. per electrical
breakdown, and the oil was left to stand for five minutes or
more. The insulating oil used for the test was confirmed to
have sufficiently small changes in the characteristics during
the test by measuring the water content of the oil and the
breakdown voltage of the 2.5 mm sphere-gap.
2.2 MAKING OF DEGRADED OIL WITH THERMAL
OXIDATION
The insulating oil was heated assuming the aging for 30 years
in the field equipment. The insulating oil was heated under the
condition that an insulating paper (pressboard) coexisted in the
oil-heating tank after adjusting the dissolved oxygen content
equal to 30-years aging. The heating temperature and time were
set to 120C and 29 days (700 hours) (Figure 2). The heating
conditions were set based on the assumption of that the
insulating oils service life decreases by half if its temperature
exceeds the reference temperature (60 C) by 7 C [9, 10]. For
this heating, a heat exchanger was installed and was delivered
heating steam. The insulating oil was circulated through the heat
exchanger by a heat-resistant pump (Figure 3). Furthermore, an
electric heater was also mounted on the oil feed pipeline for fine
adjustment of the oil temperature, while the heating temperature
was kept at a constant 120 C for 29 days. The oil-heating tank
and oil feed pipeline were hermetically sealed with heat
insulating material.
Table 1 shows the characteristic changes in the insulating oil
in association with the heating thereof. Although the volume
Oil flow
Earthing
terminal
Earthing
conductor
Test tank
Bushing
High voltage
lead wire
4mm
1
0
5
m
m
Stainless steel
disk electrode
Filled with insulating oil
9
0
m
m
Figure 1. Configuration of test equipment. (with oil gap formed via
parallel disk electrodes).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
100 110 120 130
Heating temperature (C)
N
o
.

o
f

h
e
a
t
i
n
g

d
a
y
s

(
d
a
y
)

.
Equivalent
to 10 years
Equivalent
to 20 years
Equivalent
to 30 years
Equivalent
to 40 years
Figure 2. Corresponding age-related degradation years and heating time /
temperature characteristics.
IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 17, No. 6; December 2010 1871
resistivity decreased to 2.0 10
13
from 3.5 10
14
, the
dielectric breakdown voltage showed no significant change
and the water content in the oil increased to 15 ppm during the
heating process. This is considered attributable to the water
content transferred to the oil from the pressboard, due to the
temperature increase. However, that this transfer is reversible
and that the equilibrium water content in the oil will decrease
as the temperature falls. As shown in the chromaticity of
Table 1 and Figure 4, the insulating oils appearance changed
from almost transparent to yellowish and brownish. The
degraded oil thus formed was tested after being deaerated and
fed into the test tank. The water content in the oil during this
experiment was approximately 5 ppm.
2.3 TEST BY APPLYING THE SAME VOLTAGE
MULTIPLE TIMES
In this experiment, the insulation characteristic test featuring
multiple-times application of constant ac voltage [8] are performed,
as well as general one-minute step-up and V-t characteristic tests.
This test is provided to evaluate how the history of applied voltage
affects. The independence model and accumulation model
have been recommended for the handling of history of voltage
application. The general expressions for these are represented in the
equations (1) and (2), respectively [11].
( )
)
`

= _
=
N
i
i i
T V P
1
a m
A exp 1 (1)
)
`

= _
=
a
1
m/a
) A( exp 1
N
i
i i
T V P
(2)
where P is the cumulative fault probability, A is a
constant, a is a time shape parameter, m is a voltage shape
parameter, and N is a count of voltage applications.
The effects of the history of applied voltage are examined
by conducting an insulation test whereby a constant voltage is
applied multiple times at certain intervals. And the results are
compared with the evaluated values from the aforesaid two
models. The image of pattern of voltage application is
illustrated in Figure 5. The testing conditions as shown in
Table 2 were adopted, as with the experiment using a new oil.
In the conditions of Table 2, T
H
, T
L
and V
H
/V
L
were set based
on the fact that the multiple-times voltage application to be
evaluated was temporary ac overvoltage (TOV). Moreover,
Heating time (hour)
During
V-t
character-
istic test
Test
standard,
etc.
0 240 480 700
Oxygen content
in oil (ppm)
120350 2405 1002 952 754 -
Water content in
oil (ppm)
5 15 16 14 5
JIS
C2101
Volume
resistivity at 80C
(Ocm)
3.5
10
14
6.0
10
13
7.0
10
13
1.9
10
13
2.0
10
13
JIS
C2101
Total acid number
(KOHmg/g)
0.004 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005
JIS
C2101
Surface tension
(dyne/cm)
40.2 - - - 35.0
JIS
C2101
Dielectric
breakdown
voltage (kV/2.5
mm)
72 70 71 69 72
JIS
C2101
Electrostatic
charging
tendency (pC/ml)
9 38 60 97 -
Small-
sized
electrosta
tic tester
Furfural content
in oil (g/g)
0 0.002 0.006 0.011 -
JPI-5S-
58-99
Chromaticity 1(-) 1 11/2(-) 2(-) -
ASTM-
D-1500
Appearance
(Figure 4)
I II III IV - -
Figure 3. Configuration of equipment to heat insulating oil.
Heat exchanger
Electric heater
Oil-heating tank
Table 1. Characteristics of degraded oil with thermal oxidation.
I II III IV
0 hour 480 hours 240 hours 700 hours
Figure 4. Change in appearance of insulating oil.
Table 2. Summary of the test conditions.
Test
No.
Oil
flow
(cm/s)
V
H
(kV)
T
H
(minutes)
V
L
(kV)
T
L
(minutes)
Remarks
1 0 90 1 0 5 Basic case of the oil
flow velocities.
2 16 81 1 0 5
3 0 90 1 72 5
Case of applying the
voltage V
L
during
intervals at different
oil flow velocities.
4 16 81 1 54 5
Figure 5. V-t characteristics of the oil gaps.
Time
T
e
s
t

v
o
l
t
a
g
e
T
L
T
H
V
H

V
L
1872 T. Tsuboi et al.: Aging Effect on Insulation Reliability Evaluation with Weibull Distribution for Oil-immersed Transformers
the values of V
H
and V
L
were set in the conditions under
which a difference between evaluated results from the
independence and accumulation models would be maximized
based on equations (1) and (2) [8].
3 INSULATIONCHARACTERISTICS OF
DEGRADED OIL WITH THERMAL
OXIDATION
3.1 EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS FROM AN OIL FLOW
OF 16 CM/S
3.1.1 ONE-MINUTE STEP-UP TEST
A one-minute step-up test was performed on the degraded oil
under the condition that the oil flow of the insulating oil was 16
cm/s. The results of actual measurement are plotted in Figure 6. On
the measurement result indicated by black circles in Figure 6,
breakdowns occurring at 85 kV from 7 minutes to 8 minutes are
plotted on the 8-minute line. The green triangle marker represents
cumulative fault probabilities calculated when the voltage of each
step was applied for one minute. Their comparison with those of
new oil [7] summarized in Table 3. It was observed that the 50%
breakdown voltage were almost equal to those of new oil, and the
value were slightly smaller than those of new oil. The one-minute
step-up test results were compared with the calculated results from
equations (1) and (2) with the V-t characteristics exhibited in
Section 3.1.2. Because the Weibull distribution parameter a was
close to 1, the calculation results of both the independence and
accumulation models were almost same. Also, the measurement
results were calculated highly accurately by using the V-t
characteristic test results.
3.1.2 V-T CHARACTERISTIC TEST
A V-t characteristic test of the insulating oil degraded with
heating was performed for an oil flow of 16 cm/s. The V-t
characteristics are shown in Figure 7, the Weibull plot relative to
time is shown in Figure 8, and the Weibull distribution
parameters are summarized in Table 4. In Figures 7 and 8, the
measurement results of the degraded oil are plotted in solid color
symbols, and the other results of new oil are plotted in black
outline symbols. Although the a-value showed slight variations,
almost identical characteristics emerged from the results of new
oil and degraded oil. As listed in Table 4, the results of the
degraded oil were almost equal to those of new oil, with respect
to the parameter values obtained from V-t characteristics.
3.1.3 INSULATION TEST FEATURING MULTIPLE
VOLTAGE APPLICATIONS
The insulation characteristics with multiple-times voltage
applications were measured to examine the effects on the
history of the applied voltage. As shown in Table 2, testing
conditions equivalent to those of new oil were used [8]. The
measured results and characteristics for degraded oil and new
oil are exhibited in Figures 9a and 9b, respectively. The
cumulative fault probability was measured by repeating the
conditions whereby V
H
was kept at 81 kV for one minute and
V
L
at either 0 kV or 54 kV for five minutes. In these figures,
the results obtained from V
L
= 0 kV are shown in the form of
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time (minute)
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

f
a
u
l
t

p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
A
p
p
l
i
e
d

v
o
l
t
a
g
e

(
k
V
)
.
Independence method
Accumulation method
Value for one minute
Measured data
Applied voltage
Table 3. Results of the one-minute step-up test.
Item Degraded oil New oil [7]
50% breakdown
voltage value
79.2 (kV) 80.6 (kV)
Standard deviation 8.0 (kV) 10.0 (kV)
Figure 6. Results of the one-minute step-up test of degraded oil. (Oil flow:
16 cm/s)
72
81
90
99
108
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000
Time (second)
B
r
e
a
k
d
o
w
n

v
o
l
t
a
g
e

(
k
V
)

108.0kV
99.0kV
90.0kV
81.0kV
50%BDT
50%BDT
of new oil
n = 11.4
n = 12.3
Figure 7. V-t characteristics of degraded oil with thermal oxidation. (Oil
flow: 16 cm/s).
Figure 8. Weibull plot relative to time. (Oil flow: 16 cm/s)
Table 4. Results of the V-t characteristic test for an oil flow of 16 cm/s.
Insulating oil Value n Value a (Value m) 50% BDV*
Degraded oil 11.4 0.86 9.8 84.2 kV
New oil [7] 12.3 0.84 10.3 85.1 kV
50% BDV was calculated from the one-minute-long value of the V-t
characteristic.
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
a = 0.84 a = 0.87 a = 0.85 a = 0.78
a = 0.79 a = 0.87 a = 0.98 a = 0.80
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000
Time (second)
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

f
a
u
l
t

p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y


108.0kV
99.0kV
90.0kV
81.0kV
108.0kV
99.0kV
90.0kV
81.0kV
New oil
Degraded
oil
IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 17, No. 6; December 2010 1873
outline circles, while other results obtained from V
L
= 54 kV
are shown in the form of solid circles. The solid lines
represent the results calculated from independence and
accumulation models under the condition that V
L
was equal to
54 kV. Both the results obtained from V
L
= 0 kV and V
L
= 54
kV agree with the calculation results of the independence
model. The cumulative fault probability of V
L
= 54 kV
changed at higher than that of V
L
= 0 kV corresponding to the
increased probability due to the application of V
L
. Hence it is
considered that there were few changes in the insulation
characteristics. As with the results of the V-t characteristic test,
the results showed little difference from the new oils
characteristics in [8].
3.2 EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS WITHOUT OIL FLOW
3.2.1 ONE-MINUTE STEP-UP TEST
A one-minute step-up test was performed on the degraded
oil under the condition of 0 cm/s oil flow. The measurement
results are plotted in Figure 10 and their comparison with
those of new oil are summarized in Table 5. The notation of
the Figure 10 was the same as that of Figure 6. The one-
minute step-up test results were compared with the calculated
results from equations (1) and (2) with the V-t characteristics
listed in Section 3.2.2. As shown in Figure 10, one-minute
step-up test results were calculated accurately by using the V-t
characteristic test results. The one-minute step-up test results
of the degraded oil with no oil flow were almost equal to those
of new oil.
3.2.2 V-T CHARACTERISTIC TEST
The V-t characteristic of the insulating oil with thermo-
oxidative degradation was measured for an oil flow of 0 cm/s.
The V-t characteristic is shown in Figure 11, the Weibull plot
relative to time is shown in Figure 12, and the Weibull
distribution parameters are summarized in Table 6. In Figures
11 and 12, the measurement results of the degraded oil are
plotted in solid color symbols, while other results of new oil
are plotted in black outline symbols. Although the a-value
included slight dispersion, the insulation characteristic of
degraded oil was almost equivalent to that of new oil
excluding 81 kV level. As listed in Table 6, the results of the
degraded oil were almost equal to those of new oil, with
respect to the parameter values obtained from V-t
characteristic.
As a difference in results between the new oil and the
degraded oil with thermal oxidation, note that the V-t
characteristic bent at the 81-kV level for the new oil, but there
was no inflection point for the degraded oil. In addition, with
regard to over time, it emerged that the Weibull plot of
degraded oil in 81 kV level was shifted toward the short-time
range side. The mechanism of this phenomenon is presently
under consideration.
3.2.3 INSULATION TEST WITH MULTIPLE
VOLTAGE APPLICATIONS
For oil flow of 0 cm/s, the insulation characteristics in the
event of multiple-times voltage application were measured.
Testing conditions equivalent to those for the new oil [8] were
used. The measured results and characteristics of the degraded
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time (minute)
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

f
a
u
l
t

p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y


.
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
A
p
p
l
i
e
d

v
o
l
t
a
g
e

(
k
V
)
.
Independence method
Accumulation method
Value for one minute
Measured data
Applied voltage
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (minute)
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

f
a
u
l
t

p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

-
Independence model
Accumulation model
Measured data
Measured data
81kV, 1min
54kV, 5min
(VL=54kV)
(VL= 0kV)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (minute)
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

f
a
u
l
t

p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

-
Independence model
Accumulation model
Measured data
Measured data
81kV, 1min
54kV, 5min
(V
L
=54kV)
(V
L
= 0kV)
(V
L
=54kV)
(V
L
=54kV)
(a) Degraded oil
Figure 9. Insulation characteristics of multiple voltage applications of
degraded oil with thermal oxidation. (Oil flow: 16 cm/s)
(b) New oil [8]
Table 5. Results of the one-minute step-up test.
Item Degraded oil New oil [7]
50% breakdown voltage
value
91.7 (kV) 91.2 (kV)
Standard deviation 9.9 (kV) 9.8 (kV)
Figure 10. Results of the one-minute step-up test of degraded oil. (without oil
flow) .
1874 T. Tsuboi et al.: Aging Effect on Insulation Reliability Evaluation with Weibull Distribution for Oil-immersed Transformers
oil and new oil are exhibited in Figures 13a and 13b,
respectively. The cumulative fault probability was measured by
repeating the conditions whereby V
H
was kept at 90 kV for one
minute and V
L
was kept at either 0 or 72 kV for five minutes. In
the figures, the results obtained from V
L
= 0 kV are plotted in
the form of outline circles, and other results obtained from V
L
=
72 kV are plotted in the form of solid circles. The solid lines
represent the results calculated from independence and
accumulation models under the condition that V
L
was equal to
72 kV. Both the results obtained from V
L
= 0 kV and V
L
= 72
kV indicated changes between the calculated results of the
independence and accumulation models. The cumulative fault
probability of V
L
= 72 kV changed at higher than that of V
L
= 0
kV, which is considered primarily attributable to the increase in
cumulative fault probability due to the application of V
L
. As
with the results of the V-t characteristic test as mentioned above,
the results exhibited little difference from the new oils
characteristics in [8].
3.3 DISCUSSION OF THE EVALUATION
PARAMETER BASED ON A TRIAL
CALCULATION OF INSULATION RELIABILITY
Assuming the aging for 30 years in the field equipment, a
degraded insulation oil with thermal oxidation was made. The
insulation characteristics of degraded oil was measured, and
investigated by comparison with those of a new oil. As shown in
Table 1, although volume resistivity decreased and degree of
electrification increased, there were few changes in the dielectric
breakdown voltage in the 2.5-mm-wide sphere gap. This is
considered attributable to the fact that the dielectric breakdown
voltage was mainly affected by the water content in the oil and
such water content in the oil remained almost unchanged during
the test [9, 10]. This is considered to originate the water content in
oil almost unchanged. The dielectric breakdown voltage is mainly
affected by the water content in the oil. The insulation
characteristics of this degraded oil was compared with that of new
oil. As a result, little change was observed in the Weibull
distribution parameter values used to evaluate the reliability. In
terms of insulation reliability evaluation, this change in the
parameters is evaluated. With the Weibull distribution parameters
summarized in Table 7, a trial calculation of an insulation reliability
is made based on the following equation [2, 11]:
( )
s
t a
s2
m
s2 2
a
s1
m
s1 1
a
t
m
t
ln
ln
R
R
T V N T V N T V + =
(3)
The expected reliability during the operation (R
s
) is calculated
by giving the Weibull distribution parameters (values m and a),
the assumed conditions for overvoltage during the service life (N
s
,
Figure 12. Weibull plot relative to time. (without oil flow).
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
a = 0.57 a = 0.65 a = 0.70 a = 0.71
a = 0.60 a = 0.73 a = 0.62 a = 0.72
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Time (second)
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

f
a
u
l
t

p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y


108kV
99.0kV
90.0kV
81.0kV
108kV
99.0kV
90.0kV
81.0kV
New oil
Degraded
oil
Figure 11. V-t characteristics of degraded oil with heating. (without oil flow).
81
85.5
90
99
108
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Time (second)
B
r
e
a
k
d
o
w
n

v
o
l
t
a
g
e

(
k
V
)

108kV
99.0kV
90.0kV
81.0kV
50%BDT
50%BDT of new oil n = 18.7
n = 18.6
n = 41.7
Table 6. V-t characteristic tests results without oil flow.
Insulating oil Value n Value a (Value m) 50% BDV
*
Degraded oil 18.7 0.67 12.5 96.5 kV
New oil [7] 18.6 0.65 12.1 98.1 kV
50% BDV was calculated from the one-minute-long value of the V-t
characteristic.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (minute)
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

f
a
u
l
t

p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

-
Independence model
Accumulation model
Measured data
Measured data
b 1
90kV, 1min
72kV, 5min
(V
L
=72kV)
(V
L
= 0kV)
(V
L
=72kV)
(V
L
=72kV)
(a) Degraded oil
Figure 13. Insulation characteristics of multiple voltage applications of
degraded oil with thermal oxidation. (Oil flow: 0 cm/s).
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (minute)
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

f
a
u
l
t

p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

-
Independence model
Accumulation model
Measured data
Measured data
90kV, 1min
72kV, 5min
(V
L
=72kV)
(V
L
= 0kV)
(b) New oil [8]
IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 17, No. 6; December 2010 1875
V
s
, and T
s
), the test voltage value (V
t
), the testing time (T
t
) and the
reliability during the test (R
t
) to the equation (3).
Table 8 indicates the reliability evaluation results on the
condition which cleared the test criteria of test voltage of 2.0 pu
the voltage application duration of 1 minute. It should be noted,
that this trial calculation is based on oil gap characteristics. This
calculation does not provide the reliability evaluation results of
the oil-immersed transformer in practical use. For the trial-
calculation conditions shown in the lower row of Table 8, the
conditions for evaluation as specified in JEC-0102-1994 were
used [2, 11]. Consequently, regardless of the presence or absence
of oil flow, the change in reliability evaluation values due to the
degraded oils characteristics was 0.02% or below. The result
based on the degraded oils characteristics was almost equivalent
to the calculated results based on the new oils characteristics.
Accordingly, it is considered appropriate to apply insulation
characteristics using a new oil as the parameters for evaluating
insulation reliability with respect to power-frequency temporary
overvoltage for the service life.
With the insulation reliability evaluation for temporary
overvoltage in mind, this study examined changes in insulation
characteristics in terms of age-related deterioration. On the other
hand, the increased water content and flammable gas, the aging
deterioration of the insulating paper and increased number of
particles contained in the oil, were left out of consideration. It is
considered necessary to provide maintenance against decrease in
insulation reliability by these factors. For example, they are the
control over the gas and furfural content in oil, and maintenance
work via an oil purification filter, deaerated oil feeding, etc. About
a drop of the withstand voltage due to the increment of water
contents or particles in the oil, it is taken into consideration as a
margin of a design.
In conclusion, the present reliability evaluation method using
Weibull distribution is considered appropriate to evaluate insulation
reliability during the service life.
4 CONCLUSION
In the insulation reliability evaluation using Weibull distribution,
there was an issue in selecting the Weibull distribution parameters.
This paper examined the validity of applying the Weibull
parameters obtained from the V-t characteristic test of new oil to
evaluate the overvoltage after the aging takes place. Assuming the
aging for 30 years in the field equipment, a degraded insulation oil
with thermal oxidation was made. The insulation characteristics of
degraded oil was obtained, and investigated by comparison with
those of the new oil in [8]. In terms of the insulation reliability
evaluation, the results were examined based on a trial calculation.
Consequently, the Weibull distribution parameter values remained
almost unchanged. And it is considered appropriate to apply the V-t
characteristic test using the new oil as parameters to evaluate the
insulation reliability for service life.
After this, the breakdown mechanism in terms of physical
property will be examined based on the experiments. And a proper
method of evaluating insulation reliability using Weibull
distribution will be examined.
REFERENCES
[1] For example; R. B. Abernethy, The New Weibull Handbook: Reliability &
Statistical Analysis for Predicting Life, Safety, Survivability, Risk, Cost and
Warranty Claims Fifth edition, The Reliability Information Analysis
Center, New York, USA, 2007.
[2] T. Kawamura, S. Okabe, H. Takagi, H. Takesue, and Y. Ozaki,
Temporary Overvoltage and AC Test Voltage in 550kV System with
Reduced Insulation Level, CIGRE-paper, pp. 33-203, 1990.
[3] E. Castillo and J. Galambos, Lifetime Regression Models Based on a
Functional Equation of Physical Nature, J. Appl. Probability, Vol. 24,
pp. 160-169, 1987.
[4] H. Hirose, A Method to Estimate the Lifetime of Solid Electrical
Insulation, IEEE Trans. Electr. Insul, Vol. 22, pp. 745-753, 1987.
[5] S. Okabe, E. Zaima and T. Kouno, Reliability Evaluation of Insulation
of Substation Equipment by Weibull Distribution Function, IEEJ Trans.
FM, Vol. 113-A, pp. 791-792, 1993 (in Japanese).
[6] W. Hauschild and W. Mosch, Statistical Techniques for HV
Engineering, IEE Power Series 13, Peter Peregrinus Ltd, 1992
[7] T. Tsuboi, J. Takami, S. Okabe, K. Inami and K. Aono, Transformer
Insulation Reliability for Moving Oil with Weibull Analysis, IEEE
Trans. Dielectr. Electr. Insul, Vol. 17, pp. 984-989, 2010.
[8] T. Tsuboi, J. Takami, S. Okabe, K. Inami and K. Aono, Experiment on
Multiple-times Voltage Application to Evaluate Insulation Reliability of
Oil-immersed Transformer, IEEE Trans. Dielectr. Electr. Insul, Vol. 17,
pp. 1657-1664, 2010.
[9] S. Okabe, Kohtoh and T. Amimoto, Investigation of Electrostatic
Charging Mechanism in Aged Oil-immersed Transformers, IEEE
Trans. Dielectr. Electr. Insul, Vol. 17, pp. 287-293, 2010.
[10] M. kohtoh, S. Okabe and T. Amimoto, Transformer Insulating Oil
Characteristics Changes Observed Using Accelerated Degradation in
Consideration of Field Transformer Conditions, IEEE Trans. Dielectr.
Electr. Insul, Vol. 17, pp. 808-818, 2010.
[11] S. Okabe, T. Tsuboi and J. Takami, Reliability Evaluation with Weibull
Distribution on Ac Withstand Voltage Test of Substation Equipment,
IEEE Trans. Dielectr. Electr. Insul, Vol. 15, pp. 1242-1251, 2008.
Table 7. Evaluation parameters used for the trial calculation of insulation
reliability.
Oil flow: 16 cm/s Oil flow: 0 cm/s
Character
-istics of
new oil
Character
-istics of
degraded
oil
Character
-istics of
new oil
Character
-istics of
degraded
oil
Weibull-
distribution
parameters
Value
a
0.84 0.86 0.65 0.67
Value
n
12.3 11.4 18.6 18.7
Value
m
10.3 9.8 12.1 12.5
50% breakdown
voltage (for 1 min.)
[kV]
85.1 84.2 98.1 96.5
Table 8. Trial calculation results of insulation reliability.
Oil flow: 16 cm/s Oil flow: 0 cm/s
New oil
Degraded
oil
New oil
Degraded
oil
Insulation
reliability
evaluation
value [%]
99.90 99.89 99.92 99.94
Test
conditions
Test voltage: 2.0 (pu)
Duration of voltage application: 1 (minute)
Factory-test-based reliability: 98 %
Calculation
conditions
1.25 pu 2 s 100 times
1.43 pu 1 s 3 times
1876 T. Tsuboi et al.: Aging Effect on Insulation Reliability Evaluation with Weibull Distribution for Oil-immersed Transformers
Toshihiro Tsuboi received the B.Eng. and M.Eng.
degrees in electrical engineering from the Tokyo
Institute of Technology in 1997 and 1999,
respectively. He joined the Tokyo Electric Power
Company in 1999 and is presently a member of the
High Voltage & Insulation Group at the R & D
center. His main research interest is the insulation
design of power systems.
Jun Takami (M06) received the B.Eng., M.Eng.
and Dr.Eng. degrees in electrical engineering from
Doshisha University, Kyoto in 1995, 1997 and
2010, respectively. He joined Tokyo Electric Power
Company in 1997 and at present is a member of the
High Voltage & Insulation Group at R & D center
in Tokyo Electric Power Company. His main
research interest is the insulation design of power
systems. He is a member of CIGRE.
Shigemitsu Okabe (M98) received the B.Eng.,
M.Eng. and Dr. degrees in electrical engineering
from the University of Tokyo in 1981, 1983 and
1986, respectively. He has been with Tokyo Electric
Power Company since 1986, and presently is a
group manager of the High Voltage & Insulation
Group at the R & D center. He was a visiting
scientist at the Technical University of Munich in
1992. He has been a guest professor at the Doshisha
University since 2005, at the Nagoya
University since 2006, and a visiting lecturer at the Tokyo University. He
works as a secretary/member at several WG/MT in CIGRE and IEC. He is an
Associate Editor of the IEEE Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation.
Kiyoshi Inami received the B.Eng. degree in
electrical engineering from Akita University in
1981. He joined the Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
in 1981 and is presently a member of the R&D
Dept. of the Transmission & Distribution System
center. He has been engaged in research and the
development of insulation technology for gas
insulated switchgears and transformers.
Kazuaki Aono received the B.Eng. and M.Eng.
degrees in electrical engineering from Osaka
University in 1977 and 1979, respectively. He
joined Mitsubishi Electric Corporation in 1979 and
is presently a member of the Transformer Dept. of
the Transmission & Distribution System center. He
has been engaged in research and development of
insulation technology for transformers.